Waving Willingham Goodbye

Josh Willingham, one of the game's more underrated sluggers over the past decade, announced his retirement early last week at the age of 35.

The 2012 Silver Slugger recipient had been reduced to a role player in his final two seasons, batting .211/.344/.380 (102 OPS+) while splitting time with Minnesota and Kansas City.  Willingham's was a swift decline, for in 2012 he set career highs with 35 home runs, 110 RBI, an .890 OPS, and 3.2 bWAR, making him one of the few bright spots on a Twins squad that lost 96 games and finished last in their division.

Willingham, affectionately known as "Hammer," was hardly a one-year wonder. Though he didn't debut until he was 25 and didn't play a full season until he was 27, he managed to enjoy a productive 11-year career. He broke out with the Marlins in 2006, finishing ninth in that year's NL Rookie of the Year race (won by teammate Hanley Ramirez) on the strength of his 26 home runs, 74 RBI, and .277/.356/.496 batting line. Proving he was no fluke, Willingham followed up his big rookie campaign with a solid sophomore season that saw him bash 21 more home runs, knock in 89 and post an .827 OPS.

Despite spending 50 games on the disabled list and missing 60 in all in 2008, Willingham did not see his production suffer (.834 OPS with 15 home runs). Florida traded him to the Nationals along with Scott Olsen for Emilio Bonifacio and two prospects. Willingham whacked 40 home runs in his two seasons with Washington, putting up an .863 OPS in 2009 and an .848 OPS the year after.

Unfortunately for Willingham, the Nats dealt him just as they were beginning their ascension to National League powerhouse. He was sent packing across the country to the Oakland A's in exchange for Corey Brown and Henry Rodriguez. The move proved to be a steal for Billy Beane, as both players went bust in Washington while Willingham (in his walk year) led the 2011 A's in home runs (29), RBI (98), OPS( .810) and total bases (233).

As Athletics tend to do, Willingham walked and signed a lucrative contract elsewhere, landing a three-year, $21 million deal with the Minnesota Twins.  His monster 2012 paid off most of that salary, making him a surprisingly good investment in a then-33 year-old slugger. Though Willingham dropped off in the final two years of the deal, he still hit just enough to remain above replacement level both years. The Twins haven't done a lot right lately (see: Ricky Nolasco), but inking Willingham was one of their better moves.

At the end of a career spent toiling for miserable teams, Willingham was fortunate to be traded to the Royals, where he mostly rode the pine but at least got to experience one of the more thrilling postseason runs in recent memory (similar to Adam Dunn, another washed-up slugger, getting a brief playoff taste with Oakland this year, only that didn't turn out so well). In the twilight of his career, Willingham was part of something special, and I can think of few players more deserving.

Slow Starts I'm Not Worried About (AL)

Victor Martinez (.215/.272/.306)
The Bad: V-Mart has looked very rusty after missing all of 2012 with a torn ACL. Martinez didn't hit his first home run of the season until May 4th. Despite batting fifth in Detroit's lineup behind Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, he has just 18 RBI on the season. He's striking out more than ever before and has worked only two walks since April 20th. At 34, he's reached an age where most players begin to suffer marked deterioration in their performance.

Why he'll turn it around: That .234 BABiP is bound to come up, as will his 3.5 HR/FB%. His stellar track record suggests he's going to figure things out sooner or later, and when he does he's going to knock in truckloads of runs batting behind Cabrera and Fielder.

Josh Willingham (.205/.378/.411)
The Bad: After a solid opening month, Willingham has seen his power stroke disappear in May. In his past 14 games he has no home runs and just seven hits. He's seeing fewer strikes than last year, so pitchers may be trying to avoid him more.

Why he'll turn it around: High strikeout, feast-or-famine hitters like Willingham tend to be streaky. Let's just chalk his recent slide up to a standard slump and assume the next power binge is right around the corner, especially as the weather starts warming up.

Yoenis Cespedes (.204/.270/.435)
The Bad: Cespedes already spent time on the DL with a thumb injury, which may still be affecting his swing. He has just one multi-hit game in May and hasn't drawn a walk since May 3rd. He fanned 30 times in a 22 game span from April 2nd through May 10th. He stole 16 bases last year, when he finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting behind Mike Trout, but has yet to swipe one this year.

Why he'll turn it around: His .203 BABiP is due for some serious correction, especially when his line drive percentage (8.6) starts to climb.

Albert Pujols (.248/.328/.418)
The Bad: Playing on a surgically repaired knee and through plantar fasciitis seems to be taking its toll on the 33 year-old first baseman. His strikeout rate is the highest it's been since his rookie season. He's leading the league in double plays grounded into and is once again a main culprit for LA's sluggish start (though Josh Hamilton is more to blame).

Why he'll turn it around: Pujols was even worse last spring, when he batted just .192/.228/.277 through May 11th. From that point forward he batted .310/.373/.581. He's one of the best hitters of all time, and he's worthy of your patience. His .246 BABiP will rise, as will his 12.0 HR/FB%.

Adam Dunn (.156/.255/.391)
The Bad: There's a lot of bad. Dunn went 34 straight plate appearances without a base hit from April 12th to April 20th. He had just two multi-hit games in April and three overall. His walk rate is way down. His numbers don't look much better than they did in 2011, when he had one of the worst seasons a hitter has ever had. The last place White Sox need more from him.

Why he'll turn it around: After slamming three home runs in his past two games, Dunn may already be emerging from the depths of his early season slump. Given that he's totaled at least 38 dingers in eight of the past nine years, the home runs are going to start coming in bunches. His .155 BABiP has nowhere to go but up.