The Red Sox Mashed in May

After scuffling in April, Boston's offense turned things around in May (CBS Boston)

After leading the majors in a host of hitting categories last year, including runs, hits, doubles, AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS, and total bases, the Red Sox were expected to have one of baseball's best offenses in 2017. Despite losing David Ortiz to retirement, they still boasted a fearsome lineup headed by Hanley Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia, and Jackie Bradley--all of whom exceeded an .800 OPS last year. With a healthy Pablo Sandoval, an ascendant Andrew Benintendi and the solid-if-unspectacular Mitch Moreland in the mix, Boston's batting order looked potent on paper.

It was surprising, then, when runs were suddenly hard to come by during season's first month. After averaging 5.4 runs per game in 2016, Boston managed just 3.9 in April. Their power vanished, yielding only 15 home runs and a .111 ISO in 24 games--well below last year's .183 ISO. They were hitting the ball hard and often, but not into the gaps or over the wall with any regularity. A whopping 74 percent of their hits were singles, which obviously isn't ideal, especially for a team that plays its home games in front of a 37-foot high doubles magnet in left field.

The team's best hitters simply weren't driving the ball like they used to. Pedroia managed just one extra-base hit--a double--in 86 plate appearances, failing to live up to his Laser Show nickname. Bogaerts wasn't much better, tallying a mere two extra-base hits (no homers) in 80 plate appearances. Bradley, who's notoriously streaky, began the season in a slump and also totalled just two extra-base hits in April. Ramirez didn't provide his usual thump, taking 15 games to go yard, and Betts cleared the fence only twice in April.

These offensive woes led Bogaerts to voice the team's frustrations by saying how much they missed Ortiz's presence in the middle of the lineup, even though his replacement (Moreland) was their only steady source of power with 12 doubles (but just two homers).

Their paralysis at the plate followed them into the basepaths, where they looked like the station-to-station Red Sox of yesteryear rather than the athletic bunch that ranked sixth in the American League in steals last year. Despite having several players who can impact games with their legs, they didn't take advantage of all the extra stolen base opportunities that resulted from runners being on first base, rather than already in scoring position or back in the dugout after riding one out. But the Sox stole just 10 bases, too often waiting around for home runs that never came.

As the weather warmed, however, so did Boston's bats, producing 5.7 runs per game in May which was good for second in the AL. After never exceeding eight runs in any game during April (which they only did twice), the Red Sox eclipsed double digits five times in May. And after being held to one run or less in six of 24 April games, they only had one such game in 28 May contests.

Boston's average held steady at .269, but its hits went for extra bases much more frequently. They nearly doubled their home run output from 0.63 HR/G to 1.18 HR/G and saw a similar spike in doubles, which rose from 1.63 2B/G to 2.14 2B/G. Their ISO jumped 60 points month-over-month, and suddenly no one was talking about Big Papi anymore. The power surge corresponded to a slight uptick in strikeouts (19.3 K% in April vs. 20.2 K% in May) but an even larger rise in walk rate, which jumped from 8.3 percent to 10.5 percent. As such, the Sox improved their OBP from .334 in April to .351 in May, which also contributed to the bump in runs.

Not surprisingly it was two of Boston's Killer Bees--Betts and Bogaerts--who led the charge, combining for 32 of the team's 96 extra-base hits. Betts slugged seven homers and 10 doubles, giving him the second-most extra-base hits in the Majors last month. Bogaerts was back to his old self, batting .351 with 15 extra-base hits (tied for 10th in the MLB). Pedroia chipped in 10 extra-base hits and 16 RBI while slashing .295/.376/.442 (right in line with his career .301/.366/.443 marks) before landing on the DL. Bradley only had 17 hits in 77 at-bats (.221), but nine of them went for extra bases, including five that left the yard.

It also helped that they were more aggressive on the bases despite starting out in scoring position more frequently. After stealing just 10 bases in 16 attempts during April, the Sox swiped 22 in 28 attempts in May.

With the offense firing on all cylinders and David Price finally healthy, the Red Sox are rounding into form. After going 21-21 to open the season, they won eight of ten to finish May. They still have holes to address at third base (can we get a re-do on that Tyler Thornburg for Travis Shaw trade?) and could use more depth, but overall they appear to be in good shape heading into summer.

One final note is that the Red Sox haven't hit for power at home, with just 16 round-trippers and a ,113 ISO in 27 games at home compared to 33 dingers and a .172 ISO on the road. Fenway isn't a great home run park, but don't expect that trend to continue, especially if the offense is built more around singles and doubles rather than the long ball. Fenway's conditions are ideal for those kinds of hits, so you can bet the Sox will start hanging more crooked numbers on the manual scoreboard in left.

Sox Sweep, Starting to Hit

Hanley Ramirez has helped lead the charge for Boston (NESN)

The Red Sox earned their first sweep of the season yesterday, coming from behind to beat the Oakland A's 7-4 at Fenway Park.

Things were looking pretty bleak for Boston as "Sweet Caroline" faded from the stadium loudspeakers, for the Sox entered the bottom half of the eighth facing a 4-0 deficit. Their chances of winning at that point stood at a slim four percent. By inning's end, however, it was a whopping 97 percent. In the span of three outs the odds had completely flipped with Boston exploding for seven runs and eight hits against five different A's pitchers. When Tommy Layne preserved the lead to secure his first save since 2012, the Red Sox clinched just their second win of the season in a game where they trailed after seven innings.

The meltdown by the A's bullpen wasted a phenomenal start from the rookie Kendall Graveman, who blanked Boston through the first seven innings before Rusney Castillo finally touched him for a home run to lead off the bottom of the eighth. Bob Melvin promptly yanked Graveman, who exceeded 100 pitches during Castillo's at-bat, only to watch Oakland's seeming comfortable lead evaporate. When the dust settled at the end of the inning, Boston had gone from being down four to being up three, snatching victory out of the jaws of defeat and reminding everyone that no lead is ever truly safe at Fenway.

The big inning continued a recent resurgence for the Red Sox at the plate. After averaging a pitiful 2.83 runs per game during May, Sox hitters have appeared to turn the corner as of late. In the admittedly small sample size of seven June games, Boston's batted .300 and increased its average scoring output by nearly one run. It's no coincidence that this uptick in offense, combined with steadier pitching, helped the Sox go 5-2 last week.

In particular, the middle of the order has really stepped it up. Hanley Ramirez has rediscovered his early season power stroke with three home runs and nine RBI over his past 11 games. Mike Napoli's caught fire after a brutal start, slugging six home runs and compiling a 1.024 OPS since May 18th. Blake Swihart's also been better since struggling after his initial call up, notching hits in 9 of his last 11 games including his first career home run.

Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts aren't the only ones hitting anymore, but Boston's offense still isn't firing on all cylinders. David Ortiz and Pablo Sandoval are slumping badly, and Mookie Betts has underperformed the massive expectations he created with his monster spring training. If they can get going soon too, then the Red Sox will go on their first real sustained run of excellence of the year. If they hit like they're capable of hitting, then Boston will look like the first place team everyone thought they'd be coming into the season.

Red Sox (Lack of) Offense First Half Review

I'm paraphrasing here, but Occam's razor says the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. Well, Occam's razor says the Boston Red Sox are nine games under .500 at the All-Star break, tied with the Tampa Bay Rays for last place in the AL East, because they haven't hit for beans all year.

Ding ding ding! We have a winner.

After leading baseball in runs scored last year, the defending champions rank dead-last in the American League in runs, slugging percentage, and total bases. They rank second-to-last in steals and are third from the bottom in homers, batting average, and OPS.

That's crazy. It's the worst case scenario of a veteran team getting old all at once and the young kids not being ready or able to pick up the slack. What's crazier is that most of the same guys from a year ago for back, with the key exceptions of catcher and center field. Boston basically has the same freaking team, and somehow the best offense in baseball became one of the worst almost overnight.

This is the part where I mention that injuries have played a part, because injuries always play a part on teams that fail to meet expectations. The 2012 Red Sox were crippled by them, last year's team avoided them for the most part, and this year's edition falls somewhere in between. Shane Victorino and Will Middlebrooks have barely played. Mike Napoli did a quick stint on the DL, but Mike Carp missed more than five weeks. The Red Sox have rarely been at full strength this year.

But even if they had been at full strength all along, I still think they'd only be a .500 team at best. Two-thirds of the outfield still can't hit and neither can the catcher. The left side of the infield has been a mess all season; when Bogaerts was at short he was hitting but playing poor defense, and now that he's at third he can't hit his way out of a paper bag and Drew's even worse. Both halves of the Daniel Nava/Jonny Gomes platoon have fallen off a cliff, Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Grady Sizemore can't hold Jacoby Ellsbury's jockstrap, and Boston's big bats--Ortiz, Napoli, and Pedroia--haven't been what they were last year.

All I can say is that the Red Sox better thank their lucky stars for Brock Holt. Because if he doesn't play like an All-Star for 61 games, this team's at least 12 games out and probably has the worst record in the American League as I'm writing this (sorry Rangers fans).

Here's a position by position breakdown of Boston's so-called hitters, none of whom are All-Stars and only one of whom (Ortiz) deserved even a passing glance. Next to each name I'll give a letter grade.

C A.J. Pierzynski (F)
So it turns out signing 37 year-old free agent catchers with a ton of miles on them isn't the best idea after all. DFA'ed by Boston last Wednesday, Pierzynski was a far cry from what he and Jarrod Saltalamacchia were last year, hitting a career low .254/.286/.348 at the time. He'd been durable but replacement level at best, and nobody liked him, so he had to go. 23 year-old Christian Vazquez has replaced him behind the plate and played wonderfully in his first taste of the Show. Whereas Pierzynski was an established veteran on the way down, Vazquez Boston's backstop of the future, a rising star on the way up. Can't wait to see how he does in the second half.

Pierzynski's backup, David Ross, is still one of the better defensive catchers out there but his bat (.600 OPS) has become horrendous. He's a black hole whenever John Farrell inserts him into the lineup despite his ability to still pop the occasional homer.

1B Mike Napoli (B)
Napoli's the only member of the starting nine who's hitting as well as he did last year. His adjusted OPS, wRC+ and wOBA are within one point of what they were last year, even if his offensive profile has changed somewhat. His power's down--hardly surprising for a 32 year-old slugger--but he's made up for that by cutting down on his strikeouts and posting the best walk rate of his career. He's also the only Red Sox besides Ortiz capable of clearing the fences with any regularity, as his 10 home runs are 67 percent more than anyone else on the team not named Papi. He hasn't homered since his game-winning slam off Masahiro Tanaka on June 28th, so look for him to go on a power binge early in the second half.

2B Dustin Pedroia (C+)
Pedroia's power has declined for the fourth straight season, with his slugging percentage falling below .400 and another year of single digit home runs all but certain. What's even more puzzling is his struggles on the bases, where he's been thrown out in six of his eight steal attempts after swiping 119 bases at a 79.33 percent success rate prior to this year. But while Pedroia's regressed in those two key areas, he's still been worth roughly three wins for the Red Sox due to his outstanding defense at second base and solid offensive production: .280/.348/.381 (103 OPS+) with a team-high 26 doubles. Pedrioa's bat his picked up over the last few weeks, which could be a sign of a second half breakout.

SS/3B Xander Bogaerts (C-)
Like most rookies, Bogaerts has experienced his share of ups and downs in his first full season. The 21 year-old was on fire in late May and early June, only to go off the rails shortly after Drew's arrival bumped him over to third base. These last five weeks have been hell for Bogaerts, who endured an 0-for-27 skid at one point and has 11 hits (10 singles) and 32 strikeouts in his last 107 at-bats. His OPS has nosedived almost 200 points and his confidence appears rattled. Farrell wisely moved the kid down in the lineup to help take some of the pressure off him, and now that he's committed to playing the kids Bogaerts should get every opportunity to work his way out of this funk. Hopefully he's able to clear his head over the Break and put the slump behind him in the second half.

SS Stephen Drew (F---)
What a waste of $10 million dollars. Signed by the Sox on May 21st, J.D. Drew's kid brother has been a total bust in his second season in Boston. He's done nothing in his 101 plate appearances this year, batting .151//218/.269 with six extra base hits, five RBI and 30 strikeouts. The two month layoff appears to have affected his timing, as he looks awfully rusty and just can't seem to get into a groove in the batter's box. His poor performance and not-inexpensive price tag make him practically untradeable, so unfortunately it looks like Boston's stuck with him.

Everywhere: Brock Holt (A+)
Can't say enough about Brock Star. Not only has he played every non-pitching position except catcher (which he would definitely play if Farrell asked him to), but he's been on fire at the dish since Boston called him up. Fresh off yesterday's five-hit performance, he's now hitting a ridiculous .327/.371/.463. There's no way he can keep this up of course--his .395 BABiP has to come down eventually--but it's going to be fun watching him try. He's one of the few guys capable of lighting a spark under this veteran-laden, complacent team.

LF Jonny Gomes (D+)
Roughly 10 percent above average with the stick last year, Gomes has been 10 percent below average this year. Not only has his power evaporated but all three rate stats are down considerably, leading to an OPS that's plunged from .771 last year to .680 this year. Throw in his zero baserunning and shoddy defense and Gomes has been replacement level at best. He'll be lucky to reach 10 home runs this year after exceeding that number in eight of his last nine seasons.

CF Jackie Bradley, Jr. (D)
Bradley's defense has been tremendous, but his bat's been a massive disappointment. His glovework is good enough to keep him comfortably above replacement level, but he gives back a lot of that value at the plate and really needs to start hitting better in order to become an everyday center fielder. Bradley's been better lately, batting .371/.436/.429 over his most recent 10 games spanning the past two weeks, but where's the power? The 24 year-old strikes out way too much--in over one fourth of his plate appearances--for a guy with only one home run and an .084 Iso. His walk rate's solid at just under nine percent, helping him sustain a not-unplayable .305 OBP, but if he's not going to hit for power or run much (six steal attempts thus far) than he needs to compensate by reaching base more often. I don't care if he plays better defense than Willie Mays; he can't be a regular with the worst OPS of AL outfielders

RF Daniel Nava (C-)
Everyone knew Nava wouldn't be able to duplicate last year's stellar and completely unexpected .303/.385/.445 performance, but few could have seen him hitting regressing so much that he's having the worst season of his career. His .330 OBP is actually quite good, but his .310 slugging percentage is unacceptable for an outfielder who can't run and plays average defense at best. Nava's never going to be a big power hitter, but he needs to slug closer to his .397 career mark than .300. To be fair, he's more like the 2013 version of Nava lately with a .330/.419/.374 batting line since the calendar flipped to June. He seems to have turned things around at the plate, but he's always been prone to streaks so who knows how long that will last?

Can't say much about the Flyin' Hawaiian other than that he's battled injuries and the Sox desperately need him to return. But when he has played, he's played more like the mediocre Victorino of 2012 than the All-Star caliber one from a year ago.

DH David Ortiz (B+)
As expected, Ortiz has remained Boston's best hitter, leading the club in home runs and RBI  by wide margins as well as walks, total bases, slugging percentage, OPS, and OPS+. At 38 he's continued to hit, albeit not quite at the otherworldly level hes been at the last three years. A near-70 point freefall in BABiP has caused his average to tumble more than 50 points to .255, which would be the lowest of his Boston career outside of his abysmal .238 showing in 2009. Such a drastic drop off seems best explained by his batted ball data, which reveals a steep decline in line drive rate and a significant uptick in fly ball rate. That, combined with a lack of protection behind him (he leads the major leagues in intentional walks with 16, more than the rest of the Red Sox put together) and the presence of defensive shifts, explains why his BABiP and batting average are in the toilet.

That said, Ortiz continues to age gracefully and has showed no other signs of significant decline. His walk and strikeout rates have held steady and while his power has waned a bit, it remains elite as seen by his .231 Iso. Papi's on pace for his eighth season with at least 30 home runs and 100 RBI, benchmarks ZiPS and Steamer say he'll reach (but not by much). He's already cleared 20 homers for the 13th straight season, the longest active streak in baseball, and has twice as many big flies as anybody else on the Red Sox roster. Assuming Cooperstown doesn't fall off a cliff or suffer a serious injury in the second half, he appears poised to deliver on the contract extension he signed for next year over the winter.

Parting shot: Jonathan Herrera was a disaster and Grady Sizemore just couldn't hack it. I'm glad Cherington came around and started promoting his minor league talent like Vazquez and Mookie Betts, if only because the youngsters can't possibly be any worse than Boston's established major league players.

Red Sox Offense First Half Review

The driving force behind Boston's sterling first half has been its potent offense, which leads the major leagues in runs, doubles, and OPS.

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia
After back-to-back middling seasons as Boston's backstop/Jason Varitek's replacement backstop. Salty seems to have settled in and looks more comfortable with the pitching staff. He's improved with the stick as well, even if he isn't hitting for as much power as he did during 2011-'12, when he smashed 41 home runs with a .224 ISO.  It's troubling that he's fanned in more than one third of his plate appearances so far and has benefited from a fluky .387 BABiP. He's compensated by already establishing a new career high in doubles and boosting on-base percentage nearly 50 points thanks to a much improved walk rate. After posting a .288 OBP in consecutive seasons he's been more selective at the plate, a relief for those who feared he was nothing more than a J.P. Arencibia type.

1B Mike Napoli
The returns on him have been good so far, even though he's nowhere near the player Adrian Gonzalez was in his brief stint with the Sox. The degenerative hip condition that scared Boston into restructuring his contract hasn't been an issue for Napoli, who's been in the lineup almost everyday and provided his usual power and on-base ability. His 2011 aberration notwithstanding, Napoli is never going to be Manny Ramirez, but he's formed a strong 1-2 punch with David Ortiz in the heart of Boston's order. He's had his share of ups and downs, with a nasty two month long slump of .242/.343/.331 nestled between his red-hot first month and monster July. Like Saltalamacchia, he's likely to see some regression if and when his .383 BABiP comes back to Earth, especially since Napoli is walking less and striking out more often than ever before. Perhaps the most surprising thing about his season so far is that he's hit better on the road (.832 OPS) than he has at Fenway (.819). He also has a healthy RBI total despite not performing particularly well with men on base, so if that changes he'll likely make a run at his first 100 RBI season.

2B Dustin Pedroia
Pedroia's bounced back nicely from a "down" 2012 and just received a contract extension that will keep the former MVP in Beantown through 2021. More on that to come.

3B Jose Iglesias
Will Middlebrooks, the Opening Day third baseman and heir apparent to Kevin Youkilis, was such a black hole on offense (63 OPS+) that he needed a demotion to Pawtucket. That allowed Iglesias, a shortstop by trade, to man the hot corner while Drew plays short. The 23 year-old Iglesias has become the early frontrunner to win American League Rookie of the Year thanks to his sensational defense and unsustainable batting average. His .343 mark looks a lot less impressive given that more than 81 percent of his hits are singles and is guaranteed to fall along with his .393 BABiP. In fact, his inevitable regression to the mean is already well underway. Over the past month he's been the all-glove no-stick ballplayer he's always been, batting just .227 with one extra base hit--a double. For all his good luck and infield singles, he's still not a capable major league hitter and probably never will be. Xander Bogaerts is the team's future at shortstop.

SS Stephen Drew
J.D. Drew's little brother has been a disappointment so far, bearing little resemblance to the All-Star caliber player he was with Arizona. Showed signs of life with a solid June, only to miss three weeks with hamstring tightness that derailed his momentum. He's always been more of a second half player, with a career OPS 54 points better after the All-Star Break than before it, so hopefully he'll find his June swing and be fine going forward.

LF Daniel Nava
The miracle worker's evolved from a feel good story into a legitimate All-Star candidate. He carried the team on his back during the season's first three weeks, helping Boston jump out to a fast start. Since then he's continued to drive in runs while maintaining a strong OBP. Suffice it to say, Nava's provided much more than anyone could've possibly hoped for at the beginning of the year.

CF Jacoby Ellsbury
The major league stolen base leader has recovered from a sluggish start, boosting his batting average above .300 on the season. He's posting the best walk rate of his career which, combined with his excellent batting average, has him primed to score 100 runs for just the second time in his career. His three month drought between longballs proves that his bizarre power surge was indeed an aberration, but then again it's hard to go yard when you're hitting nearly two balls on the ground for every one you lift into the air. The speedster's recouped some of that lost value by being more aggressive and efficient on the basepaths, swiping bags at a 92.5 percent clip. More than anything, health has been the key to his success, as he's already played more games in 2013 than he did in 2010 and 2012 combined.

RF Shane Victorino
The 32 year-old has had his issues staying on the field, missing 34 games already. But when he's played he's been more than capable. In addition to supplying plenty of his plus defense and baserunning, he's been better at the plate than he was last year thanks to better results batting from the left side. That's allowed Farrell to bat him out of the two hole in 60 of his 70 games, allowing Victorino to be a table-setter instead of sliding him down in the order (what happened to Carl Crawford).

DH David Ortiz
Despite opening the season on the DL, Ortiz picked up where he left off in 2012 by getting off to a torrid start. Big Papi has far and away been the team's best hitter all year, leading the club in most offensive categories and anchoring the heart of Boston's order.

The bench
Mike Carp has been spectacular and Jonny Gomes is coming around. Otherwise, there isn't really too much to say.