Thursday, February 28, 2013

Red Sox Over-Unders

Just a few fun ones I came up with on my own:

Starting 9
Jacoby Ellsbury--39.5 steals
Dustin Pedroia--.300 batting average
David Ortiz--29.5 home runs
Shane Victorino--29.5 steals
Stephen Drew--99.5 games played
Jonny Gomes--19.5 home runs
Mike Napoli--.250 batting average
Will Middlebrooks--99.5 RBI
Jarrod Saltalamacchia--24.5 home runs

Jon Lester--14.5 wins
Clay Buchholz--2.0 K/BB ratio
Ryan Dempster--4.00 ERA
John Lackey--24.5 starts
Felix Doubront--9.0 K/9 rate
Andrew Bailey-49.5 appearances
Joel Hanrahan-34.5 saves

80.5 wins
799.5 runs scored
4.50 ERA


  1. Generally you're way high with those over/unders for players. Bailey won't pitch that much, Felix won't K that many, Salty won't crack 20 HR again, Middlebrooks won't even come close to that many RBI, and Victorino and Gomes are insane. Even Ortiz HR numbers seems high.

  2. Not really...
    -Bailey averaged 52 appearances per season before last year
    -Doubront had a 9.3 K/9 ratio last year and has a 9.0 for his career
    -Salty hit 25 dingers last year and could pop 20 again even if he loses some ABs to David Ross
    -Middlebrooks knocked in runs at a 117 RBI-pace last year before suffering his broken wrist. He's also projected to bat 5th, a great RBI spot
    -Victorino swiped 39 bags last year and has averaged 32 per year over the past five
    -Gomes socked 18 homers last year and has reached 20 three times
    -Ortiz had 32 bombs in 2010, 29 in 2011 and 23 in just 90 games last year
    My benchmarks may seem a bit optimistic to some, but they are really quite reasonable