Age 27 Players

Big things could be ahead for Sandoval in 2014 (MSN)

A quick look at some of the players about to enter their age 27 seasons (in order from oldest to youngest):

Pablo Sandoval
Sandoval's been something of an enigma throughout his first six seasons, showing incredible ability at times but having trouble staying consistent and on the field. A free agent at the end of the year, Kung Fu Panda could approach the heights he displayed in 2009 and 2011, when he earned MVP votes for hitting well over .300 with good power.

Colby Rasmus
Like Sandoval, Rasmus has also been maddeningly inconsistent. His solid 2013 production matches up very well with his 2010 breakout, but in between were seasons of sub-.300 OBPs and batting averages in the .220 range. His plate discipline could still use some work, but he has the power to be a 30 homer guy if he can stay healthy.

Yu Darvish
The Rangers ace took a big step forward in 2013, his second big league season. Besides leading the major leagues in strikeouts (277) and strikeout rate (11.9 K/9), he lowered his ERA by more than a full run (3.90 to 2.83) and trimmed his walk rate by almost a batter per inning. It wasn't enough to take the Cy Young away from Max Scherzer, but Darvish did finish second. Don't be surprised if he takes home the trophy this year.

Evan Gattis
Gattis came out of nowhere last year, breaking in as a 26 year-old rookie catcher for the Atlanta Braves. Like most rookies, he didn't exhibit great discipline and had his ups and downs. But the power--21 home runs, 21 doubles (in just 105 games) and a .237 ISo--was tantalizing. Gattis might be a flash in the pan, as older breakouts tend to be, or he could go out and crank 30 homers this year.

Tommy Hanson
Hanson's ERA has risen every year since he broke in with a 2.89 mark in 2009. Last year with the Angels, it jumped almost a whole run, from a not-good 4.48 in 2012 to an unsightly 5.42 in 2013. To be fair, shoulder injuries limited him to just 13 starts, but diminished velocity will likely keep him from becoming the star he appeared on track to be during early days with Atlanta.

Brandon Beachy
Tommy John surgery caused Beachy to miss the majority of the past two seasons, but he looked pretty good in his handful of post-surgery starts last year. A healthy Beachy might be good enough to emerge as a sneaky ace in 2014.

Andrew Cashner
The former first round draft pick broke out in his first season as a regular starting pitcher last year, posting a 3.09 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 175 innings. He doesn't miss a ton of bats, so he needs to keep the ball in the park and limit his walks in order to maintain his success.

Gordon Beckham
It feels like we've been waiting for Beckham's breakout forever, but he just hasn't come close to matching the promise he showed as a rookie in 2009. His OPS has been below .700 every year since then, and he's been worth three and a half wins total over the last four seasons. Then again, last year's .267 batting average and .322 OBP were his best marks since his rookie campaign, so maybe he'll have a delayed breakout a la Alex Gordon?

Derek Holland
In many ways Holland's 2013 was his best, even if his 10-9 record didn't reflect that. The Texas southpaw set personal bests in pretty much every major category except wins and WHIP. It's hard to imagine him doing much better in 2014, but if he somehow improves he'll be a borderline Cy Young candidate.

Andrew McCutchen
'Cutch proved his 2012 leap to superstardom was for real, even if he did take small steps back in almost every important offensive category. There's no reason to expect anything less from the reigning NL MVP in 2014, and there's the distinct possibility he hits his ceiling and has a monster .300-30-30-100-100 season.

Jonathon Niese
Niese has settled in as a solid and steady pitcher over the past four seasons. Nothing more, nothing less. He aint Matt Harvey.

Desmond Jennings
Jennings handled himself well after taking over for the departed B.J. Upton as Tampa Bay's everyday centerfielder, showing improved power and patience at the plate while cutting down on his strikeouts. The similarities between his numbers and Upton's (pre-2013) are striking, and it looks like Jennings could be in line for his first 20/20 season in 2014.

Wade Miley
Took a small step back from his good 2012, when he was runner-up to Bryce Harper in the NL Rookie of the Year voting.

Everth Cabrera
Much closer to Orlando Cabrera than Miguel Cabrera, the Padres shortstop was having a career year before his Biogenesis connections curtailed his season.

Michael Saunders
20/20 potential but not much else.

Justin Smoak
Smoak's been unable to live up to the greatness everyone expected of him when he was a first round draft pick in 2008, but last year was a big step towards respectability. He smoked a career high 20 home runs and posted personal bests in all three triple slash stats, which yielded a 113 OPS+.  Smoak probably isn't going to be a star, but at least he can be useful.

Alcides Escobar
Great with the glove but terrible with the stick, Escobar's batted a measly .254/.292/.340 since becoming a regular in 2010. That said, there's 40 steal potential here if he can bat anywhere close to the .293 mark he hit in 2012.

Chris Carter
Carter parlayed a strong part-time showing with Oakland in 2012 into a full-time job with the Houston Astros. Playing everyday exposed his boom-or-bust tendencies, as he swatted 29 home runs but also struck out 212 times, more than anyone else in the majors. A three true outcomes slugger in the same mold as Mark Reynolds, more than half of his plate appearances ended with a walk, whiff or homer.

Ivan Nova
Nova returned to respectability after an atrocious showing in 2012 (5.02 ERA). His three full seasons have yielded vastly different results which makes him somewhat difficult to project, but it looks as though his poor 2012 was an aberration.

Alex Avila
Outside of his excellent 2011, Avila hasn't been very good. But there is a possibility he returns to form.

Austin Jackson
A-Jax wasn't able to replicate his 2012 success and ended up in the middle of that year and the rough season that preceded it. What's more frustrating is that his stolen base numbers have dwindled every year, falling from a high of 27 in his rookie season to just eight last year. He clearly has the wheels to steal more than that, so it seems he was reined in by Jim Leyland. Under him, the Tigers ranked last among all teams in stolen bases and stolen base attempts. Maybe Detroit will be more aggressive under new skipper Brad Ausmus?

Travis Wood
An All-Star in 2013, Wood has made major strides in each of his first two seasons with the Cubs. Chicago can't afford for him to take any steps back.

Pedro Alvarez
Alvarez led the Senior Circuit in home runs (36) and strikeouts (186) last year after posting similar totals (30 and 180) the year before. His power is exceptional, so a 40 homer season doesn't sound out of the question.

Josh Reddick
After a disappointing 2013, Reddick is looking to rediscover the power that produced 32 home runs the year before.

Ike Davis
See Reddick, Josh

Hyun-jin Ryu
Ryu was sensational in his major league debut last year, even as he was overshadowed by rookie teammate Yasiel Puig. It's going to be hard for him to stand out in a rotation headed by Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, so he may have to settle for a Hiroki Kuroda level of underratedness.

Buster Posey
Posey will be hard-pressed to do much better than he did in 2012, when he won the NL MVP award and had the highest batting average and OPS+ in baseball. But he'll still probably be pretty darned good.

Peter Bourjos
Could have a Jacoby Ellsbury-type season if he can stay on the field.

Jason Kipnis
Kipnis has emerged as a terrific second baseman for the Indians. He strikes out a lot, probably too much to hit .300, but still brings good power, speed, and on-base skills to the table. His well-rounded game is not far off from Grady Sizemore's or, to make a positional comparison, Dustin Pedroia's. His power tailed off at the end of last year (just two home runs and a .346 slugging percentage from July 22nd onward), so with a stronger finish this year he could clear 20 home runs.

Jay Bruce
Bruce's development has plateaued over the last three years, as he's settled into a streaky .260 hitter good for around 30 homers and 100 RBI per season. Maybe those aren't the elite power numbers some expected from him, but they're still damn good and could go up to 40/120. As long as he keeps batting behind Joey Votto in Cincinnati lineup, he'll have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs.

Cameron Maybin
Lots of speed, but not much else.

Jeremy Hellickson
Hell-Boy's 2013 was a lot like Nova's 2012. They're similar pitchers, so maybe a return to form is in store this year?

Danny Espinosa
His plate discipline is a mess, but second basemen with 20/20 potential don't grow on trees.

Gerardo Parra
The two-time Gold Glover displayed decent power last year, stroking 43 doubles and reaching double digit home runs for the first time. If he could just turn a few more of those two-baggers into long balls, he might be able to put together a 20/20 season.

Lance Lynn
Might win 20 games if he could cut down on his walks.

Jason Castro
Castro will look to build off a breakout year in which he batted .276/.350/.485 and made his first All-Star team. The Astros don't have many good players, but this guy's one of them.

Gomez Getting No Love

Gomez belongs in the discussion of baseball's best players

According to Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, Carlos Gomez has been the most valuable player in baseball this year. More valuable than Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, and Joey Votto. A five tool stud, Gomez leads the majors in triples, plays excellent defense in center field, and runs the bases well. In fact, he's on his way to posting almost identical numbers to the ones another great centerfielder--a young man by the name of Mike Trout--compiled last year:

Trout's 2012:   129 runs  182 hits  27 doubles  30 home runs  83 RBI  49 steals .326/.399/.564
Gomez's pace: 103 runs  191 hits  37 doubles  27 home runs  88 RBI  32 steals .326/.366/.594

But even with Gomez doing his best Trout impersonation, the Milwaukee Brewers have been terrible. Poor pitching has sunk them 11 games below .500 with only half a game separating them from the Chicago Cubs and last place in the NL Central.

Because of their struggles (and, to some degree, his unimpressive track record) Gomez isn't getting the attention his stellar first half deserves. Accordingly, he's getting shafted in the All-Star voting. Among National League outfielders he ranks twelfth (!) behind guys like Hunter Pence (6th), Angel Pagan (9th), Matt Holliday (10th) and, worst of all, Gregor Blanco (11th).

Pence (2.7 bWAR) has been good this year--much better than he was last year--but not better than Gomez. Angel Pagan should change his name to "Average" Pagan with his 99 OPS+ and 0.0 bWAR. Holliday's having the worst season of his career. And then there's Blanco, who has yet to hit a home run this season and slugging a pitiful .358.

Give me a break. Gomez will make the team as a reserve, but he deserves to start. Instead, he's going to have to settle for being the other Brewers outfielder (the one not named Ryan Braun) at this year's Midsummer Classic.

But after playing six seasons in relative obscurity, the 27 year-old should be used to flying under the radar. Signed out of the Dominican Republic at 16 and promoted to the Show at 21, Gomez stalled out in the majors when his power failed to develop. His speed was evident from day one, when he outraced Jose Reyes in spring training, but he frustrated the Mets, Twins, and Brewers by producing just 30 home runs and a sub-.300 OBP in his first 1,875 big league plate appearances.

Then, halfway through last year, something clicked. From July 23rd onward, he mashed 14 homers and stole 22 bases (getting caught just three times). He also struck out six times as often as he walked over the same stretch; hardly a recipe for success. Gomez appeared to be another B.J. Upton in the making, but instead he's elevated himself into baseball's elite.

So what's driving his MVP-level performance? The first thing that jumps out his is BABiP, which has skyrocketed 80 points from .296 last year to .376 this season. The rest of his peripherals haven't changed much from 2012 His walk rate has remained the same, and he's striking out a little less.  His contact rate and line drive rate are up a bit, and he's not popping up as much.

What we're seeing is an excellent all-around player finally putting it all together, like Matt Kemp did in 2011 and Andrew McCutchen did last year. He's taking the leap to stardom, even if few people outside Milwaukee seem to notice or care.

Players Entering Age 27 Seasons

The general consensus among baseball pundits is that a player's prime covers his age 25-29 seasons, even if the steroid era has tricked people into believing that it extends into his early thirties.  Joe Posnanski proved it here.  There will always be exceptions such as Vada Pinson (blossomed early) and Dwight Evans (late bloomer), but for the most part this trend holds true.  Players are too young, raw, and inexperienced in their early 20s, and many still haven't filled out yet.  On the flip side, players start o break down in their thirties, when their bodies fall apart and essential skills like reflexes, hand-eye coordination and speed begin to diminish.  Their waistlines expand, their bats slow down, and before you know it they're just too old.  They say baseball is a young man's game, and they're right.  Few 35 year-olds can withstand the rigors and daily grind of a 162 game season.

But a 27 year-old can.  There's something special, something promising about a 27 year-old baseball player on the cusp of stardom.  Maybe it's been blown out of proportion, especially in fantasy circles, but on the surface the infatuation with such players make sense.  27 is smack dab in the middle of his prime, and many believe a player is likely to take his game to new heights.  It's the perfect storm for a baseball player, the brief window when he's still at his athletic peak and has enough experience to complement his natural ability.  Good players become great, and great players evolve into superstars.  For some, watching a player celebrate his 27th birthday has the same effect as seeing him put on ten pounds of muscle or add three miles per hour to his heater.

With baseball season right around the corner, I decided to take a look at this special group of players entering their age 27 seasons.  As the cutoff points I will use the July 1st, 2012 and June 30th, 2013; i.e. anyone who turned/turns 27 in the 365 days between those two dates will qualify.  So some of these guys will turn 28 in July, and others will still be 26 for a few more months, but 2013 will still count as their age 27 season.  Kind of confusing, I know.

In order from oldest to youngest:

Chris Perez-Has already made back-to-back All-Star teams and racked up 75 saves over the past two seasons. Trimmed his walk rate and improved his strikeout rate last season to compiled a 3.69 K/BB ratio, easily the best mark of his career so far.

Ernesto Frieri-Stepped up as the Angels closer last year after coming over from San Diego in early May. There's no denying his ability, but his bloated walk rate (4.5 free passes per nine innings) is a cause for concern.

Wei-Yin Chen-Coming off a solid rookie campaign in which he finished fourth in the Rookie of the Year voting behind Mike Trout, Yoenis Cespedes and Yu Darvish. Proved to be a nice pickup for the Orioles, stabilizing the rotation and serving as the de facto ace after knee surgery derailed Jason Hammel's career year. The Taiwanese southpaw made 32 starts and led the team in wins (12), strikeouts (154) and innings pitched (192.2).

Mat Gamel-Has already spent parts of five seasons with Milwukee but simply hasn't hit at the major league level. The Brewers hoped he would help fill the gaping void left by Prince Fielder, but I just don't see it happening.

Adam Jones-The toolsy center fielder broke through in 2012 by setting career highs in numerous categories and placing sixth in the MVP race A poor man's Matt Kemp, Jones blends speed and power while hitting for solid averages.

Zack Cozart-Didn't set the world on fire as a rookie last year but showed promise. His 52 extra base hits were impressive for a shortstop and he played Gold Glove caliber defense. Dusty Baker let him bat leadoff most of the year in spite of his .288 OBP and four steals.

David Price-Amazingly, the reigning Cy Young winner had nearly identical peripherals in back-to-back years but wound up with vastly different results. In 2011 he went 12-13 with a 3.49 ERA, but in 2012 he went 20-5 with a 2.56 ERA and paced the AL in wins, ERA, and winning percentage. Seeing as how he can't get much better than that, I expect Price to split the difference in 2013.

Tyler Colvin-Flourished in Colorado, batting .290/.327/.531 with 18 home runs and 72 RBI in just 420 at-bats, very similar to the season he had with the Cubs two years ago. Loved hitting at Coors Field (1.032 OPS there, just .687 everywhere else) but then again, who doesn't?

Neil Walker-A herniated disc spoiled what was shaping up to be a promising season for Pittsburgh's keystone defender. He's underrated.

Delmon Young-Posted the lowest batting average and OBP of his career last year and has showed no signs of maturing into the superstar everyone expected him to be when Tampa Bay took him with the first pick in the 2003 draft. His pedestrian power numbers and unwillingness to draw walks have torpedoed what once looked like a promising career.

Matt Harrison-Has evolved into a plus starter for Texas, winning 32 games over the last two years with a 3.34 ERA (134 ERA+). Made his first All-Star team last season and earned Cy Young consideration as well.

Gio Gonzalez-Can't imagine him getting any better than he was last year, when he won 21 games and finished third in the NL Cy Young voting behind R.A. Dickey and Clayton Kershaw.

Ian Desmond-Emerged as an elite shortstop last year by leading the position in home runs (25) and slugging percentage (.511) to go along with 33 doubles and 21 steals.

Kris Medlen-Began last season coming out of Atlanta's bullpen but dominated during his brief stint in the starting rotation. Medlen made a dozen starts in 2012 and the Braves won them all. The converted reliever averaged seven innings per start, compiled a microscopic 0.97 ERA and posted an unreal 84/10 K/BB ratio while limiting opponents to .191/.218/.265 figures. Obviously those numbers are unsustainable and represent a small sample size, but I don't think he's a flash in the pan.

Evan Longoria-Injuries have hampered Longoria over the past two seasons, but that hasn't stopped him from being one of baseball's most valuable players when healthy. He's going to be an MVP one of these years, and 2013 might be it.

Carlos Gonzalez-Like many Rockies before him, CarGo doesn't get the respect his numbers deserve because of their context: they are inflated by the Coors Field effect and were produced under the cover of mediocre teams. Nevertheless, the All-Star outfielder has reeled off three straight 20/20 seasons and netted two Gold Glove awards. While he's yet to approach the Matt Holliday-esque figures that placed him third in the 2010 NL MVP voting behind Joey Votto and Albert Pujols, the .300-30-100-100-30 potential is still there.

Yoenis Cespedes-The AL Rookie of the Year runner-up anchored Oakland's lineup, teaming with Josh Reddick to provide what little punch the A's offered. Adjusted to big league pitching over the course of the season by cutting down on his strikeouts and walking more. He's already one of baseball's most exciting players and seems poised for several big seasons.

Asdrubal Cabrera-Has been one of the best offensive shortstops in the American League over the past two seasons. Proved his 2011 was no fluke, but I'm not sure he can perform much better than he did that year.

Greg Holland-Saved 16 games last year with a 1.98 ERA after inheriting the closer's job from Jonathan Broxton. He misses lots of bats and could be due for a Joakim Soria kind of year with Kansas City.

Carlos Gomez-Enjoyed a B.J. Upton type of season with 19 home runs, 37 steals and a .260 batting average last year. Was streaky in the first half but settled down after the All-Star Break: from July 23rd onward, he batted .281. slugged .506, popped 14 homers and swiped 22 bases. Those kinds of numbers can help any fantasy team, and he'll do enough in the power/speed categories without hurting your batting average.

J.P. Arencibia-Cemented himself as one of the better power-hitting backstops with 41 home runs and a .212 ISO in his first two full seasons. Seems to have Mike Napoli potential, but his high strikeout totals and disdain for drawing walks may prevent him from reaching it.

Mark Trumbo-Second half slide marred an impressive start to the season. Still finished the year with good numbers and improved upon his rookie season, so a 40 homer season could be in the cards.

Tyler Flowers-The slugging backstop is set to inherit A.J. Pierzynski's job for the South Siders and should be a safe bet for 20 home runs in his first full season.

Jair Jurrjens-Jurrjens will get a fresh start in Baltimore, where he hopes to put last season's disaster behind him and rediscover the form that made him an All-Star in 2011.

Todd Frazier-Displayed good power during his rookie season last year with 51 extra base hits, a .498 SLG and .225 ISO, finishing third behind Bryce Harper and Wade Miley in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting. He's the third baseman of the future in Cincy, especially now that free agent Scott Rolen is over the hill and unlikely to return.

Johnny Cueto-Since Opening Day, 2011, Cueto has a 2.58 ERA (159 ERA+) in 57 starts. He's been one of baseball's best pitchers, and yet nobody seems to talk about him.

Yovani Gallardo-YoGa has been a model of consistency the past four years, making at least 30 starts every season, winning between 13 and 17 games, striking out at least 200 hitters and keeping his ERA in the mid-threes. With Zack Greinke gone, Milwaukee needs him to step up and lead the rotation.

Chris Davis-Finally broke through in 2012 with 33 home runs. Could threaten 40 in 2013.

Dexter Fowler-Colorado's center fielder took a big step forward in 2012 when he batted a career best .300/.389/.474 with double digit totals in doubles, triples, homers, and stolen bases.

Carlos Santana-Cleveland's catcher has been a steady source of walks and power but has yet to realize his potential.

Felix Hernandez-Over the past four years, King Felix rates with Justin Verlander as the best pitcher in the American League. The 2010 AL Cy Young winner has tossed nearly 1,000 innings during that span with a 2.81 ERA and almost 900 strikeouts. Expect more of the same in 2013, his ninth season in the majors.

Lorenzo Cain-The Royal center fielder lashed a bit of power and speed last year, making 15 homers and 20 steals a real possibility in his first full season.

Billy Butler-After years of supplying Nick Markakis-type numbers, Butler set personal bests across the board and made significant leaps in the power department. He averaged 15 home runs, 75 RBI and a .458 SLG in his first five years but belted 29 dingers with 107 ribbies and a .510 SLG in 2012. Expect him to threaten or surpass .300-30-100 again next year.

Homer Bailey-Eight years after the Cincinatti Reds selected him with their first round draft pick in 2004 (ahead of Jered Weaver), Bailey finally started to put it all together last year. He made maintained a 3.68 ERA and 3.23 K/BB ratio over 33 starts in 2012 and should be trusted as a solid mid-rotation starter from this point forward.

Matt Wieters-Is this the year he finally puts it all together and surpasses Joe Mauer as the best hitting backstop in the American League? He's improved his home run, RBI and walk totals every year since debuting in 2009, so if those trends continue he's going to have a big year.

Jordan Zimmermann-Has been quietly awesome over the past two years, posting a 3.05 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 3.74 K/BB ratio, much better than his 20-19 record suggests. He needs to start pitching deeper into ballgames, as he's averaging under six innings per start for his career.

Jonathan Lucroy-The Brewers backstop batted .320/.368/.513 last year despite missing 50 games with a broken hand. No way he reproduces those rate states over the course of a full season, but his power looks legit and I could see him having a Brian McCann kind of year.

Trevor Plouffe-Powered up in the first half of 2012 by blasting 18 home runs in a 39 game stretch from May 16th to July 3rd, but hit just five home runs in his other 80 games. Was the power burst for real, or was it merely a mirage? I could see him topping 20 dingers again but don't think he'll approach the 32 homer pace he displayed last season.

Phil Hughes-Bounced back from an ineffective, injury-plagued 2011 to win 16 games, approach 200 innings and post a career best 3.59 K/BB ratio. Since it's very possible that CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte, and Michael Pineda all miss time in 2013, Joe Girardi is counting on Hughes to be a workhorse.

2011 All Breakout Team (AL)

A look back at some of the top breakouts in the American League from 2011.  Rookies are ineligible, so you won't find Michael Pineda, Desmond Jennings, Eric Hosmer, Mark Trumbo, Jeremy Hellickson, or Brett Lawrie below. For the most part, I tried not to include guys who were already established big league stars that took their games to new heights, a la Curtis Granderson, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Justin Verlander.

C Matt Wieters (four bWAR)
After a pair of disappointing seasons that produced a mediocre .266/.328/.393 line with 20 home runs in exactly 800 at-bats, he made his first All-Star team, won his first Gold Glove and set career highs in everything except batting average and OBP.  He more than doubled his career long ball output by clearing the fences 22 times. Still, you get the feeling that we haven't seen the best of the 25 year-old backstop yet.  I don't think he'll ever hit the Joe Mauer level many predicted for him when he broke in (I doubt Wieters will ever win one batting title, let alone three), but he could still improve upon his statistics from last year.  The big switch-hitter quietly put up big numbers (14 bombs, .840 OPS) in the second half of 2011, and I see no reason why he can't continue to improve and sustain that production over the course of a full season.  He could go out and slug 30 home runs this year, something only a handful of catchers (Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli, and Brian McCann) have a legitimate shot at doing.

1B Carlos Santana (3.9 bWAR)
I know his primary position is catcher, but he started 63 games at first base last year and should continue to receive more playing time there to help keep his legs fresh and his powerful bat in the lineup.  He made a splash in his 2010 rookie season with his keen batting eye and power stroke before Ryan Kalish slid into him and ended his year in mid-August, so many pegged him as a sleeper/breakout candidate for 2011.  Fully recovered from his injury, the 25 year-old played in 155 games and established himself as one of the top-hitting catchers in the game (if you can stomach the .239 batting average).  The sophomore posted a .217 ISO, crushed 27 home runs and drew 97 walks.  He'll need to cut down on his whiffs (133 last year and a 20.2 % K rate), but there's nothing stopping him from becoming a perennial 30 home run threat.

2B Howie Kendrick (4.3 bWAR)
The first time All-Star delivered in his age 27 season by setting career highs in numerous categories such as runs, triples, home runs, walks, OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+.  His power spike was the most impressive aspect of his 2011 campaign; after smacking 20 home runs in 2009 and 2010 combined he launched 18 last year, and probably would have reached 20 if not for a stint on the DL in late May.  In addition, his slugging percentage jumped 57 points and his ISO soared by 51.  This could be the first step in realizing the Robinson Cano type potential that many once saw in him.

3B Jose Bautista (8.5 bWAR)
While 2010 was his true breakout season, I remember a lot of people writing him off as a fluke and not taking him seriously as an elite player (he was going in the fourth round of most fantasy drafts).  His five year-$64 million deal was criticized as a risk before the ink had even dried (and now it looks like a massive bargain, another shrewd move by GM Alex Anthopoulos).  Casual fans simply assumed was taking something, or that he had gotten very lucky, because part time players aren't just supposed to go out and rack up 54 home runs like that.  I must admit I was somewhat skeptical of his transformation myself, though I didn't think he was a Brady Anderson type who would immediately crash back to Earth. Well, he went out and proved everybody wrong last year, when he was the best player in baseball during the first half and went on to lead the major leagues in home runs, walks, SLG, OPS, and OPS+.  Despite the double digit dropoffs in four-baggers and RBI, in many ways his 2011 campaign was superior to his 2010 breakout.  Don't worry about the second half dropoff, because he was banged up and couldn't possibly sustain his videogame-like first half production. Joey Bats is legit, people, and he'll be terrorizing pitchers for several years to come.


SS Asdrubal Cabrera (3.7 bWAR)
Everything from his 2011 season more or less matches up with his previous performance, except for a shocking power spike.  After hitting just 18 home runs in his first 1,415 big league at-bats, the 25 year-old Cabrera cranked out 25 of them last year, over four times his previous career high of six.  Accordingly, his SLG and ISO both skyrocketed by more than 100 percentage points from 2010.  How did he pull that off?  His 13.3 HR/FB %, twice his previous career best, explains the fluky power total, as does the ESPN Home Run Tracker's claim that 15 of his 25 dingers were measured as traveling "just enough" to find the bleachers.  Cabrera helped himself out by hitting the ball in the air more, as his ground ball rate dropped eight percent while his fly ball rate jumped by over seven percent, but it's a good bet that more of those fly balls are going to die on the warning track or land in outfielders' gloves next season. His other counting numbers received a boost because he finally managed to stay healthy for the entire season, playing 151 games and accumulating 604 at-bats.  Hopefully he enjoyed his first All-Star selection, Silver Slugger, and MVP votes, because I don't see him getting anymore in the future.

OF Alex Gordon (5.9 bWAR)
The first overall pick of the 2005 draft had been a massive bust up until last year.  Touted as the next George Brett, he disappointed everybody with his .244/.328/.405 career line and injury plagued seasons in 2009 and 2010.  But just when it seemed as though he would never develop into the star everyone projected him to be, he turned 27 and enjoyed the best season of his career by setting personal bests across the board, winning his first Gold Glove and even earning some MVP consideration.  His numbers--101 runs, 23 home runs, 87 RBI, 17 steals, and a .303/.376/.502 line--would fit right in on the back of Brett's baseball card.  No, he'll never be George Brett, but he should be a key contributor on an up and coming Royals squad.

OF Melky Cabrera (2.9 bWAR)
Until last year, Cabrera was a fourth outfielder miscast as an everyday player with the Yankees and Braves, but in Kansas City he thrived last year batting leadoff for the Royals.  Other than his .332 BABiP, none of his batted ball stats (line drive, ground ball, and fly ball percentages, etc.) deviated much from his career norms, so perhaps playing under easy-going manager Ned Yost for a young non-contender (for the first time in his professional career) helped him relax, because he went out and smashed every single previous career high except for triples, walks, and OBP. 

Here are his career highs prior to last season:
548 at-bats  75 runs  149 hits  28 doubles  13 home runs  73 RBI  13 steals  .280/.360/.416  .752 OPS  95 OPS+  213 total bases

And here are his numbers from 2011
658 at-bats 102 runs  201 hits  44 doubles  18 home runs  87 RBI  20 steals  .305./.339/.470  .809 OPS  121 OPS+  309 total bases

It's a wonder how he didn't make the All-Star team last season.  He's been killing the ball in spring training and is slated to bat in front of Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval, so it will be interesting to see if he can replicate his numbers this year.  Don't bet on a repeat performance, but it's not totally out of the question, either.

OF Matt Joyce (three bWAR)
Joyce had been productive on a per game basis before last year, with a .243/.344/.486 line and 25 home runs in 490 at-bats.  The only problem was, those at-bats were spread out over three seasons, and the most games he'd ever played during a single season was 92, during his rookie year with Detroit.  The 26 year-old rightfielder suited up for 141 games in 2011, and he did not disappoint.  He made his first All-Star team, posted a 132 OPS+, whacked 19 home runs and stole 13 bases for a club in desperate need of extra offense in the wake of Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford's departures.  Unfortunately for Joyce, his severe lefty-right splits (.866 OPS against righties, .657 OPS against southpaws) make him a prime platoon candidate, but he should still play enough to put up similar numbers to last year.


SP Justin Masterson (4.1 bWAR)
After flashing some promise during his Red Sox debut in 2008, the big sinkerballer had been a thoroughly mediocre pitcher before last season, one who'd performed poorly as both a starter and a reliever.  Out of nowhere he became the ace of Cleveland's staff, leading the rotations in wins (tied with Josh Tomlin), ERA, starts, complete games, innings pitched, strikeouts, and ERA+ as he set career bests in just about everything.  The key was slicing a full hit and walk off his H/9 and BB/9 rates, and decreasing his HR/FB rate for the third consecutive season. 2011 was probably his ceiling, but he's entering his age 27 season and will start on Opening Day for the Tribe.

SP BranDon McCarthy (3.7 bWAR)
He'd been an ordinary starting pitcher plagued by injuries and bouts of ineffectiveness with the White Sox and Rangers over his first five seasons from 2005 through 2009.  He didn't pitch at all in 2010, so understandably Texas didn't make much of an effort to resign him when he became a free agent after the season.  Billy Beane scooped him up off the scrap heap, and McCarthy made radical improvements in his A's debut/age 27 season.  The sabermetric darling cut his home run rate in half, walked just 1.3 batters per nine innings and induced more ground balls than ever before.  Those strides, combined with Oakland's pitching friendly venue, helped McCarthy set career highs across the board.  His 1.13 WHIP and 4.92 K/BB ratio were especially impressive.  He went toe-to-toe with Felix Hernandez on Opening Day and should be in line for another strong season.

SP Doug Fister (5.7 bWAR)
The groundballer was nothing more than a league average starter during his first two seasons with Seattle, but in his age 27 season (notice a pattern here?) he surprised everybody by turning in one of the better pitching campaigns of 2011.  Through the end of July he had a solid 3.33 ERA and 1.17 WHIP (but just a 3-12 record to show for it) with the Mariners, who sent him to Detroit just in time for the Tigers' playoff run.  Fister flourished in Motown, going 8-1 over his final ten starts while compiling an otherworldly 11.4 K/BB ratio.  He averaged seven innings per start, held opposing batters to a measly .206/.228/.294 line and posted a microscopic 1.79 ERA/0.84 WHIP combo.  He was just as good as, if not better than, Justin Verlander over that stretch, which helped him set career highs across the board and lead the American League in fewest long balls allowed per nine innings, with just 0.5.  Obviously he'll be hard pressed to repeat that same success this year, especially given Detroit's defensively challenged infield, but with their potent offense backing him he should be able to breeze past his eleven wins from a year ago.

SP Derek Holland (2.7 bWAR)
His peripheral stats lined up with his numbers from 2010, but the difference was that he made 32 starts and completed 198 innings for a 96 win team.  When that happens, it's not much of a surprise that the third year starting pitcher went 16-5 and found himself pitching in the World Series.  The secret was improved command; more than half of his pitches were in the strike zone and he lowered his walk rate by nearly a full batter per nine innings.  Most impressively, he led the AL in shutouts and kept his ERA under four despite pitching half his games in the hitter's haven known as the Ballpark in Arlington.

SP Matt Harrison (4.0 bWAR)
Harrison began his major league life as a starter, but after two ineffective seasons he was moved to the bullpen, where he made improvements but still rated as a below average pitcher.  He carried a career 5.39 ERA and 1.57 WHIP with him back to the rotation last year, but  this time he stuck around, making 30 starts and winning fourteen games.  He managed to shave two full runs off his career ERA and slice his bloated WHIP down to 1.27.  He trimmed his walk rate from 4.5/9 in 2010 to 2.8/9 last year while cutting his home run rate in half and upping his K/9 from 5.3 to 6.1.  That's a recipe for success right there, and

RP David Robertson (3.9 bWAR)
The 26 year-old stepped up and replaced free agent bust Rafael Soriano as New York's crucial eighth inning bridge to Mariano Rivera.  After three seasons of decent but unspectacular relief work for the Yankees, he emerged as one of the top setup men in the game.  The numbers speak for themselves:

-He was a perfect 4-0
-Posted a miniscule 1.08 ERA (lower than his 1.12 WHIP), which translated to an unbelievable 410 ERA+
-Piled up 100 strikeouts in 66 and two-thirds innings, good for a superlative 13.5 K/9 rate that rates as the fourteenth best ratio all-time for a reliever with at least 60 innings pitched (his ERA was seventh lowest)
-He allowed just one home run in his 70 appearances, and hit only one batter
-Opponents batted a paltry .170/.280/.226 against him

For his efforts he was named to his first All-Star team, finished eleventh in the Cy Young voting and earned as much MVP consideration as Josh Hamilton.


CL Brandon League (1.2 bWAR)
The eighth year reliever took over the closer's job from David Aardsma, who would miss all of 2011and require midsummer Tommy John surgery.  League was not a natural replacement by any means, for he had saved only eight games in his entire career and has never had the elite strikeout rate indicative of a top notch reliever.  Nevertheless, he did one helluva job for the Mariners last year, saving 37 games with a 2.79 ERA and 1.08 WHIP while posting a career best 4.5 K/BB ratio and making his first All-Star team.