World Series Preview

The San Francisco Giants completed their stunning comeback on Monday night by blowing out the St. Louis Cardinals, 9-1, in Game 7 of the NLCS. The Giants looked done when they dropped three of the first four games to the defending World Series champs, but with their backs to the wall they rallied. San Francisco held the Cardinals offense, the same lineup that scored the second most runs in the Senior Circuit and featured Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina, Carlos Beltran, Allen Craig, and David Freese, to only one run over the final three games.  Meanwhile, the Giants offense scored 20 times in the same span to eliminate the Redbirds and secure their second National League pennant in three years. They will face the Detroit Tigers, who swept the Yankees in the ALCS last week by silencing New York's expensive bats.

Both teams have great pitching, good hitting and excellent managers at the helm, so it should be a great series. Here is why I think the San Francisco Giants will win in 6:

1. The Giants have home field advantage

Thanks to the National League's Melky Cabrera-driven 8-0 All-Star Game victory, the Giants enjoy home field advantage in the Fall Classic.  This edge could prove to be decisive because Giants pitchers thrived at AT&T Park, where they compiled a 3.09 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and limited opponents to a .649 OPS. That doesn't bode well for Detroit, whose lineup and pitching were significantly worse on the road this year. Away from Comerica Park, the Tigers offense scored 60 fewer runs, slugged 21 fewer home runs and posted an OPS that was 71 points lower compared to their home totals. Furthermore, AT&T Park is a hitter's nightmare that figures to give Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and co. fits. But the hitters weren't the only ones who struggled; Detroit's team ERA jumped by more than half a run and their opponents' OPS climbed 51 points. It's no wonder, then, that Detroit has played sub-.500 ball on the road this year. Playoffs included, they're an uninspiring 40-45 away from home. The Giants are 52-36 at home.

2. The postseason is all about pitching, and the Giants have more of it
San Francisco fielded one one of the best pitching staffs in baseball this year, and it's not hard to see why. Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, and Ryan Vogelsong were outstanding while Barry Zito and Tim Lincecum rounded out the rotation. The bullpen, sans Brian Wilson, has been nothing short of phenomenal. The Tigers have the best pitcher on the planet in Justin Verlander, but even he has not been immune to postseason struggles. Coming into the playoffs, the 2011 AL Cy Young winner/MVP had a 5.57 ERA spanning eight playoff starts. He's been untouchable thus far, but who's to say he won't get lit up a la CC Sabathia? Max Scherzer has been just as good, but he's notoriously inconsistent and could be due for a licking as well. Anibal Sanchez and Doug Fister are above average starters, but neither one possesses dominant stuff. Plus the bullpen, Jose Valverde in particular, has been shaky.

3. The Giants have enough offense to support their pitchers
In 2010, the Giants caught lightning in a bottle when the likes of Cody Ross, Edgar Renteria, and Andres Torres elevated their games in October and sparked San Francisco to the championship. This time around, San Fran's offensive attack is led by more talented and established hitters. Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval and Hunter Pence form an intimidating heart of the order. With Angel Pagan and NLCS MVP Marco Scutaro setting the table for them, they should have opportunities to drive in runs and do some damage.

Pagan, Scutaro Sparking San Francisco

Posey has overshadowed the torrid hitting of Angel Pagan (left) and Marco Scutaro 

Ask the average baseball fan who has been the most valuable player on the San Francisco Giants this season, and the vast majority of them would probably give Buster Posey as their response (a month ago you could have said Melky Cabrera; now I'd be shocked if the writers give him so much as a courtesy nod).  The 2010 NL Rookie of the Year is leading the team in almost every offensive category imaginable, ranks fourth in the league in bWAR and is tied with Andrew McCutchen for the top OPS+ in the majors. Since starting the All-Star Game (in which he caught for Matt Cain) he's done his best Ted Williams impression--circa 1941--by hitting an absurd .392/.466/.656 to push the Giants past the Los Angeles Dodgers in the standings and build a cushy eight game lead in the NL West.  Considering all that, some have already tabbed him as the frontrunner for National League MVP, I'm not convinced he's separated himself from the pack.  There are still several other candidates worthy of consideration; Ryan Braun has the best stats, David Wright's put together a heck of a year and McCutchen is heating up again after a brutal August slump. If 'Cutch can carry his Pittsburgh Pirates (2.5 games out of the second wild card spot) into the postseason for the first time since the Barry Bonds era ended there two decades ago, I think he's a shoe-in for the trophy.

So if Posey wants to become the first National League backstop to earn an MVP award since Johnny Bench in 1972, he will need to sustain his hot hitting for two more weeks.  In the meantime, San Francisco's cleanup hitter should continue to get plenty of opportunities to drive in runs given how productive the table-setters have been at the top of the lineup.  While Posey's gotten all the ink for his second half surge, veterans Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro have been the X-Factors fueling San Fran's success in August and September.

Pagan has quietly enjoyed a terrific campaign. Following a disappointing 2011 with the Mets in which he batted .262 and missed more than a month with a rib injury, the switch-hitting center-fielder was traded last offseason for Ramon Ramirez and Andres Torres. Installed by Bruce Bochy as the Giants leadoff batter, the 31 year-old Pagan has flourished in his Giants debut.  The speedster leads the major leagues in triples, with 13, plays solid defense, and has played like an MVP over the past six weeks. Since August 3rd, Pagan is batting a Posey-like .331/.389/.554 with 14 doubles, eight triples and 42 runs scored (one run per game).   He's been a catalyst at the top of the lineup, a light version Michael Bourn or Jose Reyes.

Batting right behind him is the well-traveled Scutaro, playing for his fourth team in the past four years.  He began the season with the Rockies, only to be dealt to San Fran on July 27th in exchange for Charlie Culberson.  At the time the move hardly looked like a game-changer, for in his brief tenure with the Rockies Scoots produced 0.0 bWAR and compiled a 73 OPS+.  Since donning the Giants uniform, though, the 36 year-old second baseman has looked rejuvenated at the plate batted a blazing .349/.367/.451 with 31 RBI and just 13 strikeouts in 215 plate appearances.  Every time you check the box score it seems like he's gone 2-for-4 or 3-for-5 (he has ten multi-hit games in September).  At this point in his career most of his value is tied up in base hits, since he lacks power, doesn't steal bases, and rarely draws walks (reminds me of Michael Young).  But when one bats in front of Pablo Sandoval, Posey and Hunter Pence, getting to first base is usually enough.

It's impossible to overstate how important the contributions (5.8 oWAR) of these two players.  Last year, the Giants missed the postseason mainly because they couldn't muster enough offense to support their stellar pitching.  Posey's ankle injury and Carlos Beltran's DL stint played a part in this, but it also didn't help that their table-setters simply weren't doing their jobs.


2011
Batting first: .232/.292/.357
Batting second: .264/.308/.354

This season has been a completely different story.  Pagan and Scutaro have stabilized the top of the order and are getting on base for the big bats coming up behind them.

2012
Batting first: .265/.335/.426
Batting second: .290/.335/.369

That's a 112 point jump in OPS out of the lead-off spot and a 42 point spike from the two-hole.  Their success, combined with elite production from Posey, has helped transform San Francisco from the lowest scoring offense in the league  last year to one that rates seventh (out of 16 teams) in runs this season.  The pitching has held despite disappointing seasons from Tim Lincecum and Brian Wilson, so the Giants are poised to make a run at their second World Series title in three years.

Pagan has never played in the postseason.  Scutaro has, albeit once and six years ago.  But with the postseason just around the corner, both have taken their games to another level.

They just have to keep doing what they're doing.  Perhaps people will finally start to take notice.  Maybe then they'll get the credit they deserve.

And maybe, just maybe, Buster Posey will win an MVP award because of it.