Posey's Push for MVP

Posey's big second half should earn him some serious MVP consideration (FP911)

With the National League MVP race wide open, Buster Posey has forced his way into the discussion with his recent hot streak.

The 2012 MVP has been on fire since the day before the All-Star break with an extraordinary .363/.406/.621 batting line, 11 home runs and 37 RBI in that time. He's now up to .310/.361/.494-20-79 on the season, outstanding numbers for a catcher playing half his games in one of baseball's most pitching-friendly venues. One of the Senior Circuit's best hitters on a league and park adjust basis, Posey ranks third in offensive bWAR, fifth in adjusted OPS+ and eighth in adjusted batting runs.

Furthermore, Posey's hot play has helped his Giants keep pace with the Dodgers all summer long. As of this morning San Francisco sat just two games out of first in the NL West. With 20 games remaining on their schedule, the Giants still have plenty of time to pass the Dodgers and steal the division title out from under them. And considering how well San Francisco's played lately, winning 15 of their last 22, it's not hard to imagine them finishing with a fury and blowing by LA during the season's final days.

If that happens and Posey continues to rake, he's going to have a very interesting MVP case. Not only does he lead the team in most key offensive categories (home runs, RBI, all three slash stats), but on most days he also mans the most important non-pitching position on the demand (only Jonathan Lucroy and Miguel Montero have caught more games among NL receivers). It's no wonder, then, that Baseball-Reference rates him as the team's most valuable player by WAR.

So Posey may not have the flashy slugging numbers of a Mike Trout or Giancarlo Stanton, he definitely belongs in the MVP conversation.

Verlander, Posey Make Bank

Justin Verlander and Buster Posey just got a whole lot richer.

The best players at their respective positions (and former MVPs) became the most recent additions to baseball's ever-growing $100 million contract club. Following a winter in which David Wright, Evan Longoria, Zack Greinke, Josh Hamilton, and Felix Hernandez signed nine-figure contracts, Posey and Verlander secured massive paydays for themselves.

Posey inked a nine-year, $164 million contract extension with the San Francisco Giants to rival Joe Mauer's $184 million dollar deal for most money ever given to a backstop. Like Mauer, Posey is a fan favorite expected to be the face of his franchise. His deal includes a full no-trade clause as well as a club option for 2022, so it seems safe to say he'll stick around in San Francisco for the next decade at least.

Posey just turned 26 but has already accomplished more than many players do in their entire careers. He's been named Rookie of the Year, Most Valuable Player, and Comeback Player of the Year. He owns a pair of World Series rings, a batting title and a Silver Slugger award. He's started an All-Star Game and won a batting title. Better yet, he's just coming into his prime and should be a superstar for years to come.

Justin Verlander's extension makes his contract the richest for a pitcher in the history of the sport, topping the $175 million Seattle gave to Felix Hernandez in February. Verlander was already signed through 2014 and will rake in $20 million in both of the next two seasons before his five-year, $140 million contract kicks in. His deal also includes a $22 million vesting option for 2020.

Though the Tiger ace just turned 30, he's one of the sport's most durable hurlers, not to mention most dominant. I can't argue against paying top dollar for elite starting pitching because if there's any workhorse worth breaking the bank for, it's Verlander. The reigning AL champs can only hope that Verlander's career doesn't fizzle out in his 30s like Johan Santana's or Pedro Martinez's.

The real question is: which baseball star is next in line to re-up with his team for big money? Will the Yankees keep Robinson Cano? Can Boston afford Jacoby Ellsbury? Will the Giants invest in Tim Lincecum, too?

Only time will tell.

MVP Reaction

The debate between Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera has been raging for months, and by this point it's been analyzed to death. I don't want to beat a dead horse, so I'm just going to say this. Mike Trout deserved to win the American League Most Valuable Player award. So did Miguel Cabrera. Trout deserved it more. He should have been the third player to win both Rookie of the Year honors and the MVP award in the same season (Fred Lynn and Ichiro Suzuki are the others).

I don't mean to bash Cabrera here, because he had a monster season. He really did. Besides leading the league with his .330-44-139 produciton, he also led the majors with his .999 OPS and 377 total bases. Hands down the best hitter in baseball this year. No disrespect to Cabrera, but his numbers weren't that special (they look like your typical Manny Ramirez year, or something out of Jim Rice's prime). Trout had one of the greatest seasons of all time. There is no compelling argument for why Miggy should have won over Trout, especially by such a huge margin;

-Cabrera won the Triple Crown, which is cool. Nobody had done it since Carl Yastrzemski's magical 1967 season. But Trout became the first player ever to score at least 125 runs, hit 30 homers and steal 45 bases.

-Cabrera hit better down the stretch (August and September), but Trout was better in May, June, and July. Last time I checked, a win in May counts just as much in the standings as it does in September.

-Sure, the Tigers made the playoffs and the Angels didn't, but LA actually won one more game in Detroit despite playing in a much tougher division. While Detroit got to beat up on the Twins, Royals, and Indians, LA had to duke it out with Oakland and Texas all summer long. The Halos missed the playoffs because Pujols had the worst April of his career, Mark Trumbo disappeared after the All-Star Break, Ervin Santana fell apart and Dan Haren had the worst full season of his career. How is any of that Trout's fault? If the team hadn't kept him buried in the minors for most of April it probably would have reached the postseason. And I'm sick of the notion that the MVP has to come from a playoff team (it cost Matt Kemp the award last year). The best player deserves to win. Period.

-Trout had the best season by a 20 year-old has ever had. Better than Alex Rodriguez's 1996, Ted Williams' 1939 and Ty Cobb's 1907. Cabrera didn't even have the best season of his career (his last two years were better).

-Trout was the best defensive centerfielder (forget Adam Jones winning the Gold Glove, Trout won the Fielding Bible Award) and the best baserunner in baseball. Cabrera "sacrificed" by moving back to third base to make room for Prince Fielder, but he is average at the hot corner and average on the basepaths.

-Cabrera hit better with runners on base, but he also had 138 more men on base than Trout did over the course of the season and also grounded into two dozen more double plays. Besides, WPA (the best statistic for measuring "clutch") shows that Trout was superior in high leverage situations.

-Forget the batting title. Every baseball fan worth his salt knows OBP is more important, and Trout's .399 mark tops Cabrera's .393.

-Last but not least, Trout was worth 10.7 bWAR, the most any position player has had since Barry Bonds ten years ago. Cabrera was worth 6.9, becoming the first Triple Crown winner not to lead his league in in WAR. You tell me who was more valuable.

As for the National League, it was a foregone conclusion that Buster Posey would win the award after his monster second half helped San Francisco reclaim the NL West. Even though his counting numbers paled in comparison to Ryan Braun's, Posey's 7.2 bWAR led the league. The Giants backstop posted the best batting average and OPS+ in the majors. He cut down more would-be basestealers than any catcher in baseball. Put it all together and Posey became the first NL catcher to win the award since Johnny Bench took home the trophy in 1972 (looking at Mike Piazza's player page it's a wonder he never won.)

I was happy to see Braun get the credit he deserved for another phenomenal season. The 2011 NL MVP paced the Senior Circuit in runs, homers, OPS, total bases, and extra base hits while finishing second in hits, slugging, RBI. He was the only player in the league to go 30/30, something he did last year as well.  He was undoubtedly the top hitter in th NL this year, and had the Brewers made the playoffs the vote would have been much closer. As it is, he finished a distant second but still received ten first place votes. I thought the BBWAA would punish him for his testosterone red flag last October, but they gave him a fair shake. Andrew McCutchen (third) and Yadier Molina (fourth) took the remaining pair of first place votes, while NL RBI leader Chase Headley rounded out the top five.

Other notes of interest:
The AL  truly was a two-horse race. Cabrera and Trout received all 28 first place votes. I'm a little surprised that Robinson Cano or Josh Hamilton didn't get any.

Justin Verlander, the Cy Young runner-up, finished four spots higher than David Price, who won the award.

Albert Pujols wound up 17th, the first time in his career he missed the top ten. Before this season he'd made the top five every year from 2001-2011 except 2007, when he finished ninth.

Nobody on the Boston Red Sox received MVP consideration, and rightfully so. Can't remember the last time that happened.

Hunter Pence made his way onto the ballot despite skidding to the finish line with a .253/.319/.425 batting line and 0.8 bWAR. I'm guessing someone was impressed with his 24 home runs and 104 RBI.

Chipper Jones received consideration for the 13th and final time in his career.

And who in God's name voted for Raul Ibanez? (probably the same guy who threw David Robertson a vote last season; the man needs to be stopped). Ibanez batted .240/.308/.453 and was worth a paltry 0.3 bWAR. I can think of many players more deserving of that vote; Curtis Granderson, David Ortiz, Chris Davis, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, and the biggest snub; Austin Jackson. A-Jax led the league in triples, maintained a .377 OBP and scored 103 runs setting the table for Prince Fielder and the MVP.

Posey for MVP

MLB award season is in full swing, and starting tomorrow the Baseball Writers Association of America will announce their selections for the sport's top rookies, managers, pitchers, and most valuable players. All eyes are on Thursday, when the MVPs will be revealed.

Both races were hotly contested this year and there figures to be plenty of controversy regardless of who wins.  The American League award is too close to call and seems destined to end in a photo finish between wunderkind Mike Trout and Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera (Trout should win, but Cabrera probably will win). Buster Posey appears to be the favorite in the National League but is far from a sure thing. Andrew McCutchen, Ryan Braun and Yadier Molina all have compelling cases as well.

I recently read an article arguing against Posey and felt compelled to plead his case. No National League catcher has won the award since Johnny Bench in 1972, but Posey deserves it. Here are five good reasons why he should take home the trophy:

1. Posey led the National League in Wins Above Replacement (WAR)

WAR is one of my favorite stats because it combines batting, defense and baserunning to represent a player's value based on how many additional wins he provides compared to a replacement level player. Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs use different methods to calculate this statistic, but both sites have Posey leading the National League.

2. Posey led the major leagues in Adjusted OPS+

By that measure, which takes the league's offensive environment and the player's home ballpark into account, he was the best hitter in baseball this year. Better than Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, and all the rest. Accordingly, Posey received the NL Hank Aaron Award, awarded annually by the MLB to the best hitter in each league. Posey is the first catcher to win the award.

3. Posey led the NL in Adjusted Batting Runs, Adusted Batting Wins, and Base-Out Wins Added

He topped the Senior Circuit in these three important advanced statistics. Adjusted Batting Runs estimates a player’s total contributions to a team’s runs . Adjusted Batting Wins estimates a player’s total contributions to a team’s wins with his bat. Base-Out Wins Added deduces the number of wins above average the player was worth by his performance measured by the 24 base-out situations across every play in the game.

4. Posey became the first catcher to win a batting title in 70 years (since Ernie Lombardi)

Granted, he won on a technicality, but it remains an impressive feat nevertheless (thanks to Melky Cabrera).

5. Posey led the majors in caught stealing

He gunned down more potential basestealers (38) than any other catcher, including Yadier Molina who is widely regarded as the best defensive backstop in baseball. Posey is no Ivan Rodriguez, but next year runners should think twice before testing his quick reflexes and strong arm.

Giants Sweep Tigers

The Giants waited 52 years to bring their first World Series title to San Francisco after abandoning their home in the Polo Grounds prior to the 1958 season.

The city didn't have to wait too long for their second.

In the ALCS it was the Detroit Tigers who knocked off the New York Yankees in four games. The script flipped in the Fall Classic, when the Giants took four straight from the Tigers and captured their second World Series title in three years. After coming within one loss of elimination in the NLCS, the Giants returned from the brink and didn't lose again.

On paper, the matchup between the looked intriguing and seemingly had the potential to produce an exciting six or seven game series. It never materialized. Game 1 was a good old-fashioned spanking in which the Giants battered Justin Verlander and Series MVP Pablo Sandoval tied a Series record by cranking out three homers. The next two games were tightly contested pitching duels that the Giants won, 2-0. The fourth and decisive game was a hard-fought extra-inning thriller in which the Tigers made their last stand, but ultimately fell short.

Neither Matt Cain nor Max Scherzer brought his best stuff last night, but both lasted deep into the game before turning it over to the bullpens. Once that happened, it was only a matter of time before San Francisco and its superior relief corps prevailed.

The Giants drew first blood in the top of the second when Hunter Pence knocked a ground-rule double over the fence and Brandon Belt drove him home with an RBI triple.The following inning, Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera gave the Tigers their first and only lead of the series by poking a two-run homer into the first row of the right field bleachers, thus snapping San Fran's string of 56 consecutive innings without falling behind.

The Tigers lead lasted until the top of the sixth, when likely NL MVP Buster Posey swatted a two-run shot of his own that just managed to stay fair and put San Francisco back on top. The lead was short-lived, though, for ALCS MVP Delmon Young responded wit a solo jack in the bottom of the frame to even the score at three-all.

The game stayed that way into the tenth, when NLCS MVP Marco Scutaro ripped an RBI single up the middle off Phil Coke to plate Ryan Theriot. Sergio Romo entered the game and proceeded to strike out the side by fanning Austin Jackson, pinch-hitter Don Kelly and Cabrera, who took a pitch right down the middle for a called third strike that sealed Detroit's fate.

The Tigers bats suffered from the six day layoff between the ALCS and World Series, and thus went cold at the worst possible time.  Their offense batted a measly .159 with just five extra base hits and six runs scored in the Fall Classic. Prince Fielder went AWOL. Jhonny Peralta was nowhere to be found. But when the chips were down, at least Jim Leyland didn't freak out and pull a Joe Girardi. He didn't frantically reshuffle the lineup in an attempt to stir his slumbering sluggers. He stuck with his guys til the end and went down with his best, whereas Girardi's ship sank with the likes of Alex Rodriguez, Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson watching from the dugout.

It's too bad, really, because aside from Verlander, Detroit's starting pitching was excellent. Anibal Sanchez, Doug Fister and Scherzer turned in quality starts and pitched well enough for their teams to win. They simply didn't get any run support, and the bullpen didn't do them any favors either.

As far as next year goes, the Tigers front office should focus on adding depth to a top-heavy team. I would let Young walk this offseason (Victor Martinez's return will more than make up for his departure on offense) and pursue a few relievers to bolster their 'pen. Another bat would be nice, too. But even if they decide to sit tight and lick their wounds, they're still the overwhelming favorites to win the AL Central for the third straight year.

As for the Giants? They will look to become the first team to win three World Series titles this millennium. Their outstanding starting pitching always makes them a threat.  Mixed with plus defense, solid hitting and a great bullpen, the Giants have created a recipe for success that makes them perennial contenders. They should let Scutaro leave given his age (37), but will probably re-sign him along with Angel Pagan. A full season from Pence will help, but they also need to find a way to replace Melky Cabrera, who was their first half MVP.

I wouldn't bet on them repeating as champions in 2013. But then again, I wouldn't have bet on them winning it all as recently as two weeks ago.

Melky Cabrera Forfeits Batting Title

Thanks for giving up the batting title, Melky. How about that All-Star Game MVP?

In an unprecedented but well-received gesture, Melky Cabrera voluntarily disqualified himself from the 2012 National League batting race.  The All-Star Game MVP is currently serving a 50 game suspension triggered when he violated the MLB drug policy by testing positive for performance enhancing drugs. His .346 average leads the major leagues, and he was poised to join another cheater--Barry Bonds--as the only members of the San Francisco Giants to win a batting crown in this millennium.

The battle for the batting title now becomes a two man race between MVP candidates Andrew McCutchen and Buster Posey, Cabrera's partner in crime.  Pittsburgh's centerfielder leads San Francisco's backstop .338 to .335, but there is still a week and a half of baseball yet to play.  At the moment, these two seem to be trending in opposite directions. McCutchen was batting as high as .373 on August 1st, but since then has batted an uninspiring .263 as his Pirates plummeted out of the playoff picture.  Over that same span, Posey batted a robust .370 and is showing no signs of slowing down.  There's history to be made here; he's trying to become the first National catcher to capture a batting title since Ernie Lombardi did it in 1942.  Besides Lombardi, Bubbles Hargrave is the only other Senior Circuit receiver with a batting title under his belt.  Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, and Mike Piazza never won one (and Piazza batted .362 one year, for crying out loud, albeit at the height of the Steroid Era. A Coors Field-aided Larry Walker edged him in both the batting race and the MVP race that year).

Obviously this competition could go either way, and will likely be decided by a handful of hits.  It could come down to a single base knock--who legs out that infield single or bloops a flare in front of a charging outfielder. I'm tempted to think Posey will continue his torrid second half and pass McCutchen, as Miguel Cabrera did to Adrian Gonzalez last year. Nevertheless, I'm putting my money on 'Cutch.  He's started to heat up again in September, and even though he probably won't see too many good pitches to hit I think he can hold off Posey down the stretch.  Like Mike Trout, Posey has been so hot for so long that I feel like he's due to hit a speed bump sooner or later.  And, since he has fewer at-bats than McCutchen, an 0-for-4 day at the plate has a greater impact on his batting line (by that some token, so does a 4-for-4).

I'm just glad Cabrera was wise enough to step down and allow a (presumably) clean player to capture the batting title.  He made the correct call by accepting the consequences of his actions. It would have been wrong for him to accept a "tainted" award for an enhanced performance, just as it would have been wrong for Ryan Braun to keep his 2011 MVP trophy had he been forced to serve his own 50 game suspension in the spring (Matt Kemp deserved it anyways, but Braun's going to get screwed over in this year's voting, so it evens out).

Cabrera can't undo what he did, just as he can't take back all the runs he scored or all the games he helped the Giants win.  But give him credit for changing the outcome of something he could still control.

Pagan, Scutaro Sparking San Francisco

Posey has overshadowed the torrid hitting of Angel Pagan (left) and Marco Scutaro 

Ask the average baseball fan who has been the most valuable player on the San Francisco Giants this season, and the vast majority of them would probably give Buster Posey as their response (a month ago you could have said Melky Cabrera; now I'd be shocked if the writers give him so much as a courtesy nod).  The 2010 NL Rookie of the Year is leading the team in almost every offensive category imaginable, ranks fourth in the league in bWAR and is tied with Andrew McCutchen for the top OPS+ in the majors. Since starting the All-Star Game (in which he caught for Matt Cain) he's done his best Ted Williams impression--circa 1941--by hitting an absurd .392/.466/.656 to push the Giants past the Los Angeles Dodgers in the standings and build a cushy eight game lead in the NL West.  Considering all that, some have already tabbed him as the frontrunner for National League MVP, I'm not convinced he's separated himself from the pack.  There are still several other candidates worthy of consideration; Ryan Braun has the best stats, David Wright's put together a heck of a year and McCutchen is heating up again after a brutal August slump. If 'Cutch can carry his Pittsburgh Pirates (2.5 games out of the second wild card spot) into the postseason for the first time since the Barry Bonds era ended there two decades ago, I think he's a shoe-in for the trophy.

So if Posey wants to become the first National League backstop to earn an MVP award since Johnny Bench in 1972, he will need to sustain his hot hitting for two more weeks.  In the meantime, San Francisco's cleanup hitter should continue to get plenty of opportunities to drive in runs given how productive the table-setters have been at the top of the lineup.  While Posey's gotten all the ink for his second half surge, veterans Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro have been the X-Factors fueling San Fran's success in August and September.

Pagan has quietly enjoyed a terrific campaign. Following a disappointing 2011 with the Mets in which he batted .262 and missed more than a month with a rib injury, the switch-hitting center-fielder was traded last offseason for Ramon Ramirez and Andres Torres. Installed by Bruce Bochy as the Giants leadoff batter, the 31 year-old Pagan has flourished in his Giants debut.  The speedster leads the major leagues in triples, with 13, plays solid defense, and has played like an MVP over the past six weeks. Since August 3rd, Pagan is batting a Posey-like .331/.389/.554 with 14 doubles, eight triples and 42 runs scored (one run per game).   He's been a catalyst at the top of the lineup, a light version Michael Bourn or Jose Reyes.

Batting right behind him is the well-traveled Scutaro, playing for his fourth team in the past four years.  He began the season with the Rockies, only to be dealt to San Fran on July 27th in exchange for Charlie Culberson.  At the time the move hardly looked like a game-changer, for in his brief tenure with the Rockies Scoots produced 0.0 bWAR and compiled a 73 OPS+.  Since donning the Giants uniform, though, the 36 year-old second baseman has looked rejuvenated at the plate batted a blazing .349/.367/.451 with 31 RBI and just 13 strikeouts in 215 plate appearances.  Every time you check the box score it seems like he's gone 2-for-4 or 3-for-5 (he has ten multi-hit games in September).  At this point in his career most of his value is tied up in base hits, since he lacks power, doesn't steal bases, and rarely draws walks (reminds me of Michael Young).  But when one bats in front of Pablo Sandoval, Posey and Hunter Pence, getting to first base is usually enough.

It's impossible to overstate how important the contributions (5.8 oWAR) of these two players.  Last year, the Giants missed the postseason mainly because they couldn't muster enough offense to support their stellar pitching.  Posey's ankle injury and Carlos Beltran's DL stint played a part in this, but it also didn't help that their table-setters simply weren't doing their jobs.


2011
Batting first: .232/.292/.357
Batting second: .264/.308/.354

This season has been a completely different story.  Pagan and Scutaro have stabilized the top of the order and are getting on base for the big bats coming up behind them.

2012
Batting first: .265/.335/.426
Batting second: .290/.335/.369

That's a 112 point jump in OPS out of the lead-off spot and a 42 point spike from the two-hole.  Their success, combined with elite production from Posey, has helped transform San Francisco from the lowest scoring offense in the league  last year to one that rates seventh (out of 16 teams) in runs this season.  The pitching has held despite disappointing seasons from Tim Lincecum and Brian Wilson, so the Giants are poised to make a run at their second World Series title in three years.

Pagan has never played in the postseason.  Scutaro has, albeit once and six years ago.  But with the postseason just around the corner, both have taken their games to another level.

They just have to keep doing what they're doing.  Perhaps people will finally start to take notice.  Maybe then they'll get the credit they deserve.

And maybe, just maybe, Buster Posey will win an MVP award because of it.