Castro and Rizzo Rebounding

Castro and Rizzo are enjoying big bounce back years after disappointing 2013s

Baseball fans have been spoiled by the recent, immediate success of the sport's numerous young stars. With so many guys showing up and setting the world on fire right away--Buster Posey, Jose Abreu, Jose Fernandez, Matt Harvey, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Yasiel Puig, etc.--the bar has been raised for how top prospects are expected to perform once they reach the big leagues.

What's more common is for young players to experience ups and downs, deal with the growing pains that are a natural part of the development process. The league adjusts to players, exploiting their holes and weaknesses, forcing the players to make their own adjustments that ultimately help them become better ballplayers. They're supposed to make mistakes, learn on the job through trial and error. They're supposed to fail. Just look what's happened to Xander Bogaerts, Gregory Polanco, and Kelton Wong this year. Does anybody doubt that their futures are still incredibly bright?

The Chicago Cubs recently experienced these issues with two of their most promising young position players. In 2012 both Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo were 22 years old, hailed as an up-and-coming tandem of stars that was supposed to help turn their struggling franchise around. Castro made his second straight All-Star team that year, batting .283/.323/.430 with a career-high 14 home runs and 25 steals while playing solidly above average shortstop. Worth somewhere between 3 and 3.5 WAR that year, he was easily a top-10 shortstop overall and one of the five best in the National League.

Rizzo, in his first season with Chicago after being traded by San Diego that January, started the year in Triple-A but was in the majors by the end of June and made an immediate impact, slugging four home runs in his first ten games and winning NL Rookie of the Month honors for July. Entrenched as the Cubs' everyday first baseman, he played well the rest of the way, finishing the year with a .285/.342/.463 slash line. He displayed good power as well, clubbing 15 doubles and 15 homers to go along with 48 RBI in roughly half a season (87 games).

Both appeared to be cornerstones of a rebuilding Cubs team that dropped 101 games in 2012 but had its eyes set on the future. Chicago improved marginally the following year, losing 96 games, but did so without much help from Castro and Rizzo. Castro bottomed out, flailing at the plate (hitting just .245/.284/.347 with a measly 72 OPS+) and regressing in the field, resulting in a sub-replacement level season.

Rizzo, despite once again showing good power (40 doubles, 23 dingers) and patience (76 walks), was also a disappointment. He batted only .233/.323/.419--roughly league average production when adjusted for league and park--and struck out 127 times in his first full season. He and Castro had been expected to improve, but instead appeared to take significant steps back.

This year both were selected to the NL All-Star team and appear to have gotten themselves back on track. Rizzo's emerged as one of the sport's top sluggers, with his 29 long balls just three shy of Giancarlo Stanton for the league lead. He's more than just a power hitter though, as his robust .278/.376/.510 batting line has made him one of the Senior Circuit's ten best hitters this summer, which is also evident in his high standing on many of the league's leaderboards.

Castro has also returned to form at the dish, with his .284/.333/.429 slash line nearly a dead ringer for his 2012 stats. He's one home run away from his personal best and needs only two more walks to tie his previous high. His defense has held steady compared to last year and he's all but abandoned his running game (four steals in seven attempts), but at least he's back to being one of the better-hitting shortstops in baseball.

The Cubs, who have improved again this year and can count on more hitting talent arriving shortly, have to be encouraged by these recent signs of progress. Castro and Rizzo are All-Star caliber players expected to be cornerstones of the organization's next postseason contender, which could be ready as soon as next year. For the Cubs to reach their full potential, Castro and Rizzo have to reach theirs, and based on their performance this year they appear to be doing just that.

Starlin Castro's Catastrophic Season

Coming into the 2013 season, Starlin Castro seemed to be a player on the rise. Just 23 years old, he'd already made two All-Star appearances and amassed over 500 hits. His power was developing and he'd improved upon his subpar defense. All signs pointed to a player who was trending upward, who was only going to get better until he reached his superstar ceiling in a few short years.

Well, so much for that.

Rather than continuing to progress, Castro's cratered. His latest slump (just seven hits--all singles--in the past two weeks) has dropped his batting line to .238/.276/.333. His strikeouts are up, way up, and his walks are down. His season-long slump has sapped his confidence, causing Castro to look worse with each passing day.

Those offensive struggles seem to have followed him out onto the field, where he's regressed into the below average shortstop he was prior to last season. He's shown poor decision making on the basepaths as well, getting thrown out in six of his 14 steal attempts.

In short: everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. And on top of that, his Chicago Cubs are wallowing in last place, playing out the string in what will become their fourth straight losing season and, more importantly, 105th consecutive year without a World Series championship.

But Castro was supposed to be one of the few bright spots for the Cubbies in 2013, a building block for a rebuilding franchise. Instead, he's unraveled. His numbers have flatlined to the point where he been the team's least valuable position players per bWAR.

As is usually the case with such dramatic drop-offs, he's been victimized by bad luck. His .287 BABiP isn't crazy low compared to the league average, but it is nearly 40 points below his career norms. His batted ball distribution hasn't changed much, so declining contact rates, especially on pitches within the strike zone, appear to be the culprit for his struggles at the plate. As for his issues on the bases and in the field, those have more to do with his Hanley Ramirez-esque mental lapses than anything else.

Castro's better than this, and I have to believe he'll bounce back next year. He showed far too much promise in his early 20s to be written off. Players who succeed at such an early age (i.e. Mickey Mantle, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols) tend to thrive, if not get better. Even the best young baseball players struggle, as we've seen with Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, and Eric Hosmer.

Growing pains are part of the game, and it's clear that Castro still has some growing up to do.