Williams: What Might Have Been

Were it not for a couple of wars, Williams would've produced some mind-blowing numbers

There are many ways baseball students have tried to replace what Ted Williams lost to his nearly five years of military service. I published my own method two-and-a-half years ago, and like everyone else concluded that Williams would have wound up with some gaudy career statistics.

After reading Ben Bradlee, Jr.'s new and well-researched biography on (and titled) The Kid, I decided to alter my method. Near the end of Teddy Ballgame's career as he was pursuing several milestones, a Boston sportswriter estimated that Williams lost out on 2,534 at-bats to wartime. I'm not sure how he arrived at that precise figure (Bradlee doesn't explain), but it sounds reasonable to me--because he walked so much, Williams was typically good for around 520 official at-bats per season--so I'll run with it.

All I did was divide some of the Splendid Splinter's career totals by his at-bats, 7,706, to determine more of his rate stats (i.e. AB/HR, 2B/HR, and so forth). To calculate hits and total bases I simply left his career batting average and slugging percentage intact, though it's certainly possibly those figures would have been higher given that he hit .356/.496/.647 in the 1940s, which began when he was 21, by the way.

Anyways, here's what I came up with:

591 R
873 H
173 2B
171 HR
605 RBI
665 walks
1,606 TB
40.5 bWAR
728 runs created

After adding those to his career totals one gets:

2,389 R (1st all time)
3,527 H (5th all time)
698 2B (5th all time)
692 HR (4th all time)
2,444 RBI (1st all time)
2,686 walks (1st all time)
6,490 TB (2nd all time)
163.6 bWAR (1st all time)
3,056 runs created (1st all time)

Pretty close to what I originally projected. But no matter how you slice it, it becomes clear that under different circumstances, Williams would not just be regarded as the greatest hitter of all-time (which many people, myself included, do), but the best player of all-time, period. Better than Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, and all the rest.

Even without the three prime years and two additional seasons in his mid-thirties, he still ranks up there. If only because nothing, not even a World War and a combat crash-landing, could stop the Kid from hitting.

When Duty Called Part III

The third part of my series that looks at players who missed time to World War II and attempts to fill in the blank seasons on their resumes. I averaged their two seasons before the war with their two seasons after it to try to get a picture of what their numbers would have looked like.

Joe Gordon
"Flash" Gordon was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2009, more than 30 years after his death and nearly 60 years since his last game. You have to wonder if the nine-time All-Star second baseman would have gotten in sooner had he not lost his age 29 and 30 seasons to Army service. He could have beefed up his career totals, which weren't very impressive due to the short length (11 seasons) of his career. He even might have retired as the position's all-time home run leader. As it were, the Jeff Kent of his time finished 48 dingers shy of Rogers Hornsby.

1944-1945 averages: 74 R, 135 H, 25 2B, 19 HR, 78 RBI, 72 BB, 224 TB, 6 bWAR
Career totals: 1,062 R, 1,800 H, 314 2B, 291 home runs, 1,131 RBI, 903 BB, 3,155 TB, 69.1 bWAR

Cecil Travis
Travis was very much on the Hall of Fame track before the war interrupted his career, costing him three prime seasons (age 28-30). Though he played a good amount of baseball in the army, he suffered severe frostbite during the Battle of the Bulge and nearly lost his feet. When he returned late in the 1945 season, he wasn't the same player who had made three All-Star teams and batted .327/.381/.436 in his nine pre-war seasons. He hit just .241/.307/.302 after coming back and retired at age 34 after the 1947 campaign--easily the worst of his career.

1942-1945 averages: 74 R, 176 H, 32 2B, 13 3B, 80 RBI, 248 TB, 4.4 bWAR
Career totals: 961 R, 2,248 H, 393 2B, 130 3B, 977 RBI, 3,038 TB 47.3 bWAR

Tommy Henrich
Old Reliable was a late bloomer who didn't make his first All-Star team until he was 29, then spent the next three seasons in the Coast Guard.When he returned to the diamond in 1946 he was already 33 years old. Based on the success he achieved directly before and after the war, it's reasonable to assume that he would have remained an All-Star caliber player during the war years and could have pushed his career totals closer to borderline Hall of Fame levels.  Given his status as a Yankee favorite and World Series hero, he would have had a good shot at getting voted in by a lenient Veteran's Committee.

1943-1945 averages: 96 R, 144 H, 29 2B, 20 HR, 83 RBI, 74 BB, 246 TB, 3.8 bWAR
Career totals: 1,189 R, 1,729 H, 356 2B, 243 HR, 1,044 RBI, 934 BB, 2,999 TB, 47.2 bWAR

Phil Rizzuto
While Scooter is roundly viewed as one of the least deserving players in the Hall of Fame, that probably be the case had he not spent his age 25-27 seasons in the Navy. The Yankee shortstop was already a finished product when he debuted in 1941 and earned an All-Star nod the following year. If not for the war, he likely would have approached/exceeded several notable benchmarks such as 1,000 runs, 2,000 hits and 200 stolen bases. He would have compared very favorably to Pee Wee Reese and might have even been inducted off the writer's ballot as opposed to waiting for a Veteran's Committee to give him the call in 1994.

1943-1945 averages: 69 R, 146 H, 22 2B, 53 RBI, 15 SB, 190 TB, 4 bWAR
Career totals: 1,084 R, 2,026 H, 305 2B, 722 RBI, 194 SB, 2,635 TB, 52.6 bWAR

Pete Reiser
Along with Tony Conigliaro, Herb Score, and Ray Fosse, Reiser will always be one of the greater what if? cases in baseball. His breakneck style of play resulted in several collisions with outfield walls, with the walls usually winning. Pistol Pete was stretchered off the field 11 times (a record) and never played anything close to a full season after his 29th birthday. His career was further shortened by army service that robbed him of his age 24-26 seasons.

1943-1945 averages: 87 R, 142 H, 29 2B, 65 RBI, 18 SB, 216 TB, 4.6 bWAR
Career totals: 734 R, 1,212 H, 242 2B, 563 RBI, 141 SB, 1,845 TB 35.5 bWAR

Mickey Vernon
Vernon was a professional hitter before there was such a thing. A two-time batting champ and seven-time All-Star, Vernon played until he was 42 and totaled close to 2,500 hits and 500 doubles over 20 seasons. Those numbers would have looked even better had he not missed two prime seasons (age 26 and 27) to the war. With a couple strong seasons to boost his numbers even higher, he may have earned a Hall of Fame nod.

1944-1945 averages: 89 R, 178 H, 40 2B, 8 HR, 78 RBI, 19 SB 58 BB,  256 TB, 4 bWAR
Career totals: 1,374 R, 2,851 H, 570 2B, 188 HR, 1,467 RBI, 175 SB, 1,071 BB, 4,253 TB, 42.6 bWAR

When Duty Called: Part Two

A continuation of the post I wrote last winter, when I projected Hank Greenberg, Joe DiMaggio, Bob Feller,  Johnny Mize, Ted Williams, Whitey Ford, and Willie Mays to see what their career numbers would have looked like had they not sacrificed several seasons to serving their country.

Dom DiMaggio (1943-1945)
It is often said that while Joltin' Joe was the better hitter, his little brother was the superior center fielder. Like Tris Speaker before him, DiMaggio earned a great reputation on defense for his ability to play shallow and still get back on deep fly balls. Despite his diminutive Dustin Pedroia-esque stature and bookish appearance, he was no slouch with the bat either. DiMaggio batted .301 as a rookie and cemented himself as Boston's leadoff man. The seven-time All-Star never had a bad year and hit .298 for his career, same as Jim Rice and Mickey Mantle. DiMaggio could steal a base and had a great eye at the plate, too, using his .383 OBP to set the table for Red Sox run producers Vern Stephens, Bobby Doerr, and of course the Splendid Splinter. He missed his age 26 through 28 seasons serving in the Navy, lost time that probably cost him a plaque in Cooperstown. Nevertheless, he spent his entire 11-year career with the Sox and has a claim as the best leadoff hitter in team history (no disrespect to Johnny Damon).
1943-1945 averages; 98 runs, 174 hits, 30 doubles, 8 triples, 11 home runs, 61 RBI, 68 BB, 250 TB, 13 steals
Career totals; 1,340 runs, 2,202 hits, 398 doubles, 81 triples, 120 home runs, 801 RBI, 954 BB, 3,113 TB, 139 steals

Johnny Pesky (1943-1945)
Passed away last summer, but his legacy lives on. Pesky enjoyed one of the best rookie seasons of all time when he took over as Boston's everyday shortstop in 1942. Besides leading both leagues with 205 hits, Bobby Doerr's double-play partner also batted .331, scored 105 runs and finished third in the MVP voting behind Joe Gordon and Ted Williams. The Needle hitched a ride in the Navy and lost out on three prime years that would have bolstered his Hall of Fame case. To his credit, he didn't skip a beat when he rejoined the Red Sox in 1946. He made his only All-Star team, paced the Junior Circuit with 208 base knocks and set personal bests across the board, production that merited his fourth place finish in the MVP race. Pesky never again seriously challenged the award, but topped the league in hits once more the following year and continued to play at a high level until the Sox dealt him to Detroit in 1952. He eventually made his way back to the Red Sox and dedicated most of his adult life to serving the organization in various capacities until his death at the age of 93. Rest in Peace Johnny Pesky.
1943-1945 averages; 110 runs, 207 hits, 36 doubles, 7 triples, 53 RBI, 53 BB, 262 TB, 11 steals
Career totals: 1,207 runs, 2,076 hits, 334 doubles, 71 triples, 560 RBI, 821 BB, 2,618 TB, 86 steals

Enos Slaughter (1943-1945)
"Country" Slaughter will always be remembered for his "mad dash" around the bases that propelled the St. Louis Cardinals to a Game 7 win over the Boston Red Sox in the 1946 Fall Classic. The play embodied Slaughter's speed, hustle, and aggressive style he used to lay the foundation for his Hall of Fame career. He had already been recognized as one of the top players in the Senior Circuit prior to the war with two All--Star nods and a second place finish in the MVP race to teammate Mort Cooper in 1942, a year in which Slaughter paced the league in hits, total bases and triples. After spending his age 27 through 29 seasons in the service, he returned strong in '46 to lead the major leagues with 130 RBI and help St. Louis secure its fourth pennant in five years. He finished third in the MVP race that year behind Stan Musial and Dixie Walker. Slaughter went on to play 13 more seasons, latching on with the Yankees near the end of his career as a role player and helping Mickey Mantle, Yogi Berra and co. add a few more championships to Casey Stengel's ledger.
1943-1945 averages; 100 runs, 186 hits, 31 doubles, 13 triples, 16 home runs, 114 RBI, 79 BB, 288 TB, 9 steals
Career totals; 1,547 runs, 2,941 hits, 504 doubles, 187 triples, 217 home runs, 4,463 TB, 1,255 BB, 98 steals

Pee Wee Reese (1943-1945)
Reese was a top prospect in the Boston Red Sox farm system before player-manager-shortstop Joe Cronin forced a trade that sent Reese to the Brooklyn Dodgers, where he put together a Hall of Fame career. While he didn't hit for much power early on, his plus defense and plate discipline helped him make his first All-Star squad in 1942. Reese joined the Navy in '43 and served in the Pacific theater. After the war, He emerged as one of the top shortstops in the game as well as a cornerstone of a Brooklyn dynasty that captured six National League pennants from 1947 through 1956. He made nine consecutive All-Star squads and received MVP consideration in eleven straight years. Eight times he placed in the ballot's top ten, an impressive feat considering he shared a roster with perennial MVP candidates such as Duke Snider and Roy Campanella. More importantly, the Kentucky native befriended Jackie Robinson and supported his new double play partner throughout the legend's strenuous debut in 1947. After ceding his starting role to Charlie  Neal, an African-American, ten years later, Reese made the move out west with the Dodgers as their backup infielder but played just one season in the City of Angels before retiring.
1943-1945 averages; 83 runs, 149 hits, 20 doubles, 4 triples, 4 home runs, 57 RBI, 85 BB, 196 TB, 13 steals
Career totals; 1,587 runs, 2,619 hits, 390 doubles, 92 triples, 138 home runs, 1,056 RBI, 1,465 BB, 3,626 TB, 271 steals

Warren Spahn (1943-1945)
After making just two starts for the Boston Braves in 1942, Sphan put his baseball career on hold to fight for Uncle Sam in the U.S. Army. A combat engineer, he received a Purple Heart and fought in the Battle of the Bulge. He returned from overseas a more mature, disciplined pitcher after surviving his baptism by fire on the frigid front lines. He went on compile 363 wins and stake his claim as the best southpaw starter in the sport's history, on par or better than Lefty Grove, Sandy Koufax and Randy Johnson. Some think the war prevented him from winning 400 games and/or passing Walter Johnson for second place on the all-time wins list behind Cy Young. Spahn was not so sure. He crediting the military for accelerating his development as well as prolonging his career, which lasted until he was
1943-1945 averages; 16 wins, 15 complete games, 3 shutouts, 208 innings pitched, 100 strikeouts
Career totals; 411 wins, 427 complete games, 38 shutouts, 5,867 innings pitched, 2,883 strikeouts

When Duty Called

Can you imagine Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and Justin Verlander giving up their massive paychecks to enlist in the armed services?  What if Dustin Pedroia volunteered for combat duty in Afghanistan, or Evan Longoria wound up kicking in doors for a special ops team? Seems unfathomable, right? During World War II, it was commonplace for stars to put down their bats and gloves and pick up a rifle for their country.  It truly was a different time back then.  Following in the footsteps of Ty Cobb, Eddie Collins, and Christy Mathewson who served in the Great War a generation before them, dozens of future Hall of Famers dropped their bats and gloves and picked up rifles.  Many players from the Greatest Generation only lost a season or so, but a few special cases gave multiple seasons in the prime of their careers to their country. 

I know this has been done before, but I thought it would be fun to see what their career numbers might have looked like had they been allowed to continue their careers uninterrupted. I'm not even including players who had their careers delayed a few years by the war, guys like Ralph Kiner who got a late start.  Obviously we can never know what would have happened; maybe Joe DiMaggio would have crashed into a fence in the 1943 World Series or Bob Feller would have blown out his arm on a cold spring day in 1945, but for the sake of the project let's assume that they would have stayed healthy during the war years.  I also included Whitey Ford and Willie Mays, who along with Ted Williams lost time to the Korean conflict.

For the projections, I simply averaged the stats from their last full season before the war with their first full season back, then multiplied those averages by the amount of years they lost and tacked them on to their career totals.  For players who played partial seasons, such as Hank Greenberg in 1941 and Willie Mays in 1952, but still lost most of the year, I subtracted the numbers they put up in those years from their career totals before adding in their projected full season numbers.

Hank Greenberg (most of 1941, all of 1942-1944, first half of 1945)
Hammerin' Hank, who had been originally classified as 4F by the Detroit draft board for flat feet, was reexamined and deemed fit to serve in 1940, the year he won his second MVP award.  Greenberg was the first American League player to be drafted, and played only 19 games in the unforgettable 1941 baseball season.  Interestingly, he received an honorable discharge on December 5th, 1941 because Congress was releasing men over age 28 from service, and Hank was nearly 31. After Japanese bombs crippled the nation's naval base at Pearl Harbor, Greenberg re-enlisted and joined the Army Air Force, the first major league player to do so.  He would serve 45 months in the military, the longest of any major league player, and lost his age 30-34 seasons.  Fortunately for Detroit, their first baseman came back just in time to help lead his Tigers to the pennant and a World Series victory over the Chicago Cubs.  Greenberg paced the Junior Circuit with 44 dingers and 127 ribbies the following season, but he was already 35 and hung up his spikes after a one year stop in Pittsburgh (who "purchased" the slugger from Detroit for $75,000 before the 1947 season to team him with the powerful Ralph Kiner in the middle of their order).
1941-1945 averages; 110 runs, 170 hits, 40 doubles, 43 home runs, 139 RBI, 87 walks, 350 TB
Career totals; 1,542 runs, 2,376 hits, 554 doubles, 531 home runs, 1,899 RBI, 1,229 walks, 4,714 TB

Bob Feller (1942-1944, most of 1945)
Rapid Robert had already established himself as the premier flamethrower in the bigs when he joined the navy the same day FDR delivered his "Day in Infamy" speech and volunteered for combat service. He missed his age 23 through 26 seasons, but returned to make nine starts down the stretch for the Tribe in '45.  He picked up right where he left off over the next two years but was never the same dominant pitcher after turning 30.  Feller reached his zenith in the 1940s, and had the war not interrupted his career, we'd be talking about him in the same breath as Walter Johnson and Roger Clemens as one of the greatest power pitchers of all time.  His strikeout totals jump out the most since batters back then whiffed about half as frequently as they do today.
1942-1945 averages; 26 wins, 32 complete games, 8 shutouts, 357.1 IP, 304 Ks
Career totals; 365 wins, 400 complete games, 75 shutouts, 5,184.1 IP, 3,738 Ks

Joe DiMaggio (1943-1945)
Like Greenberg before him, the Yankee Clipper joined the Army Air Forces.  After turning in a subpar (by his lofty standards) season in 1942 (at the time setting career lows in doubles, home runs, batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, and total bases) he sacrificed his age 28,29 and 30 seasons smack dab in the prime of his career and was never the same player when he came back to patrol "Death Valley."  His nagging Achilles heel caused him to miss a lot of time, and despite a pair of monster seasons in 1948 and 1950 the second half of his career pales in comparison to the first.  More importantly, the war most likely cost Joltin' Joe the chance to tie Bill Russell's eleven championship rings.  He retired with nine, and the Yanks won the Fall Classic without him in 1943, so if he and his teammates had still been playing it's probable they would have returned in 1944 and/or 1945.
1943-1945 averages; 102 runs, 166 hits, 24 doubles, 10 triples, 23 home runs, 104 RBI, 280 TB
Career totals; 1,696 runs, 2,712 hits, 461 doubles, 161 triples, 430 home runs, 1,849 RBI, 4,788 TB

Johnny Mize (1943-1945)
Many baseball fans don't know Mize, which is a shame because he was one of the best hitters in baseball from 1936 through 1948. The Big Cat topped the NL in slugging four out of the five years before missing his age 30-32 seasons. These projections are probably on the low side, since he swatted 91 longballs and knocked in 263 runs in 1947-1948, but he had only eclipsed 28 homers once before those two seasons.  By '49 he was done as an everyday player, but the Giants shipped him across the Harlem River just in time for Mize to win five straight rings with the Yankees.  He didn't get much playing time from Casey Stengel, but still managed to contribute with the stick when he did play and was the top hitter in New York's Subway Series triumph over the Brooklyn Dodgers in the '52 Fall Classic.
1943-1945 averages; 84 runs, 146 hits, 22 doubles, 24 home runs, 90 RBI, 61 BB, 250 TB
Career totals; 1,370 runs, 2,449 hits, 433 doubles, 431 home runs, 1,607 RBI, 1,039 BB, 4,371 TB

Ted Williams (1943-1945, most of 1952 and 1953)
Teddy Ballgame was the only major star to miss time to both World War II and Korea.  The Kid lost his age 24, 25, and 26 seasons while serving as an aviator in the Marine Corps.  Considering he won the Triple Crown in 1942 and took home his first AL MVP award in '46, one can assume the Splendid Splinter would have continued to rake during the mid-40s. He served another stint in the Marines in 1952 and '53, costing him all but six games of the '52 campaign and 37 games the following year.  By then he was already 35, and assorted aches and pains would prevent him from playing more than 136 games in any of his final seven seasons.  Assuming Williams could have stayed healthy, his projected career numbers would rank him as the indisputable "Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived", a title he still holds even without the benefit of those seasons.
1943-1945 averages; 142 runs, 181 hits, 36 doubles, 37 home runs, 130 RBI, 150 BB, 340 TB
1952-1953 averages; 101 runs, 151 hits, 26 doubles, 30 home runs, 108 RBI, 140 BB, 270 TB
Career totals 2,407 runs, 3,458 hits, 679 doubles, 678 home runs, 2,408 RBI, 2,730 BB, 6,353 TB

Whitey Ford (1951 and 1952)
Ford only made a dozen starts in 1950 but after finishing runner-up in Rookie of the Year voting he had clearly earned a spot in the rotation, so I used his 1953 and '54 numbers for his projections.  The Chairman of the Board spent his age 22 and 23 seasons in the Army and missed out on a pair of World Series rings, since the Yankees were in the process of winning five consecutive championships.
1951-1952 averages; 17 wins, 11 complete games, 3 shutouts, 208.1 IP, 118 Ks
Career totals; 270 wins, 178 complete games, 51 shutouts, 3,587 IP, 2,192 Ks

Willie Mays (most of 1952, all of '53)
The reigning NL Rookie of the Year was just 21 years old when the Army drafted him, and as a result he only played 34 games in 1952 and lost all of '53.  The Say Hey Kid didn't take long to get back in the swing of things as he walked away with the MVP trophy the following year, cranked out 51 four-baggers in '55 and was off and running (literally). Had he not missed those two years, it's very likely that Mays, not Hank Aaron, would have been the one to break Babe Ruth's career home run record in the early 1970s.  As it is, the best all-around player in history still compiled some gaudy career numbers.
1952-1953 averages; 89 runs, 161 hits, 28 doubles, 31 home runs, 89 RBI, 298 total bases
Career totals; 2,240 runs, 3,605 hits, 579 doubles, 722 home runs, 2,081 RBI, 6,662 total bases