Friday, June 8, 2012

6 Disappointing Teams

Arizona Diamondbacks-After winning 94 games and running away with the division last year, the D-Backs are three games under .500 behind the much more formidable Dodgers and Giants

Who's to blame? Justin Upton's protracted slump, Miguel Montero not hitting for power, Ian Kennedy's regression, Ryan Roberts, prolonged DL stints by Chris Young and Daniel Hudson, still missing Stephen Drew at shortstop, J.J. Putz's ninth inning struggles, Josh Collementer pitching his way out of the starting rotation

Boston Red Sox-Devastated by injuries and plagued by inconsistent pitching, the Old Towne Team find themselves looking up at the rest of the American League Beast

Who's to Blame? In a nutshell, it's been the pitching.  Jon Lester not performing like an ace, Adrian Gonzalez leaving about a million runners on base, Kevin Youkilis being ineffective when he's not hurt, the front office failing to reinforce a thin starting rotation by adding a Roy Oswalt or Edwin Jackson type, whoever thought moving Daniel Bard to the rotation instead of having him inherit Jonathan Papelbon's vacant closer role (hello Alfredo Aceves) and of course, the slew of injuries to Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, Cody Ross, John Lackey, Andrew Bailey, Dice-K, Youk, Pedroia, et. al.  Not a big fan of Bobby V, either

Detroit Tigers-The AL Central was theirs for the taking after landing Prince Fielder during the offseason, but they're five games beneath .500

Who's to blame? A thin lineup missing Victor Martinez with black holes in Ryan Raburn and Brennan Boesch, Jhonny Peralta coming and Alex Avila coming back to Earth, terrible defense with Peralta at short, Fielder and Miguel Cabrera manning the corners and Delmon Young in left, not much pitching to back up Justin Verlander with Max Scherzer's maddening inconsistency, Doug Fister's injury and Rick Porcello's suckiness, shaky bullpen highlighted by Jose Valverde suffering from the Brad Lidge year-after effect

Los Angeles Angels-Looked prepared to make a run at the Rangers after inking the best free agent hitter and pitcher in Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, but have just a .500 record to show for it

Who's to blame-Pujols pressing too much, zero offensive production from Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, Alberto Callaspo, Vernon Wells, Peter Bourjos, Maicer Izturis, Torii Hunter, and whoever catches for them nowadays (and it's not Mike Napoli), so pretty much the entire lineup except for Mark Trumbo and Mike Trout, slow start from Dan Haren, Jered Weaver on the DL, Ervin Santana battling gopheritis, mediocre bullpen

Milwaukee Brewers-The Brew Crew, led by NL MVP Ryan Braun, advanced to the NLCS last year but now find themselves in fourth place, just two games up on the Houston Astros

Who's to blame-Horrible pitching, especially in the 'pen, Mat Gamel is no Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks nowhere to be found, Nyjer Morgan no longer a sparkplug, injury derailing Jonathan Lucroy, slow starts from Aramis Ramirez and Yovani Gallardo, unproductive fourth and fifth starters with the well-traveled Randy Wolf looking done at 35

Philadelphia Phillies-The NL version of the Red Sox have been hammered by injuries to key players and are toiling in last place

Who's to blame-AGE (even the manager), the lineup is about as bad as everyone feared, and the pitching has fallen far short of expectations, inability to replace Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco look old, Shane Victorino replicating 2010's production instead of 2011's, Cliff Lee comes back but Roy Halladay (who'd been surprisingly average) is lost for the summer

Thursday, June 7, 2012

9 Surprise Contenders

Baltimore Orioles-Coming off the heels of a 93 loss season they find themselves atop the AL East, tied with the Tampa Bay Rays.

Give credit to: skipper Buck Showalter, nucleus hitting its prime, Adam Jones doing his Matt Kemp impression, Matt Wieters continuing to build on his strong second half, Chris Davis finally starting to realize his potential, Jason Hammel pitching way better than Jeremy Guthrie (what the hell?), and the entire bullpen--especially closer Jim Johnson, who's been stingier than Mariano Rivera

Chicago White Sox-Just rode a nine game winning streak to the top of the AL Central

Give credit to: Comeback players, Robin Ventura being much easier to play for than Ozzie Guillen, A.J. Pierzynski's unlikely power resurgence, Dayan Viciedo's breakthrough, Paul Konerko getting better with age, Adam Dunn becoming Adam Dunn again, Gordon Beckham starting to figure it out, Alex Rios rebounding, Jake Peavy replacing Mark Buehrle at the top of the rotation by pitching like it's 2008, Chris Sale backing him up

Cincinnati Reds-Leading the NL Central and looking like the division champs from 2010, not the sub-.500 disappointments from last year

Give credit to: Preseason MVP Joey Votto in full beast mode, Jay Bruce doing his thing, Brandon Phillips recovering from slow start, Todd Frazier stepping up for an injured Scott Rolen, Johnny Cueto reproducing last season's success, Bronson Arroyo bouncing back, phenomenal relief corps anchored by flamethrower Aroldis Chapman

Cleveland Indians-Finished a distant second place last year with a sub-.500 record, but are back in second and find themselves within shouting distance of first

Give credit to: Jason Kipnis busting out, Shin-Soo Choo responding well to new role as leadoff hitter, Derek Lowe on his game, Vinnie Pestano and Chris Perez shutting the door at the end of ballgames

Los Angeles Dodgers-After a 41-28 second half surge in 2011, they have the best record in all of baseball

Give credit to: SPEED (not the drug), Don Mattingly steady as she goes, A.J. Ellis picking up the slack offensively, Matt Kemp's monster April, Andre Ethier piling up RBI, Bobby Abreu's rejuvenation, a deep bench, a killer starting rotation led by Clayton Kershaw but highlighted by one-time All-Star Chris Capuano, Kenley Janssen looking like the next Craig Kimbrel

Miami Marlins-Are within a whisker of first place after shelling out big bucks for Buehrle, Reyes, and Heath Bell last winter

Give credit to: Deep pockets, new ballpark, Omar Infante's puzzling power binge, Hanley Ramirez rediscovering his stroke, Giancarlo Stanton's light tower power, Carlos Zambrano loving his new digs, Josh Johnson pitching back into form

New York Mets-Sacrificed Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes in the name of drastic budget cuts, but have defied expectations by winning more games than the other team that calls the Big Apple home

Give credit to: solid double play duo in Daniel Murphy/Ruben Tejada, David Wright playing like an MVP again, Lucas Duda's legit power, Scott Hairston on fire, Johan Santana tossing the first no-hitter in franchise history, R.A. Dickey's utter dominance

Pittsburgh Pirates-2nd place in the NL Central with a lineup that ranks dead last in the NL in scoring

Give credit to: Andrew McCutchen quietly playing like a superstar, Pedro Alvarez showing signs of life, the rock solid Garrett Jones, James McDonald forcing his way into the Cy Young conversation, A.J. Burnett enjoying the National League, Erik Bedard staying healthy (knock on wood), an elite bullpen

Washington Nationals-All that young talent, represented by back to back #1 picks in Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, is maturing and allowing Washington to make the leap to the top of their division despite missing Michael Morse, Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth for extended periods of time

Give credit to: Youth, Pitching (you really can never have enough) Adam LaRoche shirking off a lost 2011, Ian Desmond showing surprising pop, rookie callup Harper providing a much needed spark in the lineup (#plate discipline, hustle and swag), a superb pitching staff top to bottom (Henry Rodriguez is the only one not pulling his weight)

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Fun With On Pace Numbers

With teams hitting the one-third point of the season, I thought it would be fun to look at some early season on pace numbers.  All I did was simply take their statistics and multiply them by three.

AL

Adrian Gonzalez-60 doubles
Josh Hamilton-63 home runs, 171 RBI and 426 total bases
Adam Dunn-51 home runs and 264 strikeouts
Edwin Encarnacion-51 home runs, 129 RBI
Derek Jeter-225 hits
Alejandro De Aza-117 runs and 39 steals
Josh Reddick-42 home runs, 87 RBI
Joe Mauer-42 GIDP
Josh Willingham-51 doubles, 30 home runs and 108 RBI
Albert Pujols-69 runs, 24 home runs, 87 RBI

Matt Harrison, Chris Sale and Derek Lowe-21 wins
Fernando Rodney, Chris Perez and Jim Johnson-51 saves
Justin Verlander-9 complete games and 263 innings
Brandon Morrow-6 shutouts
Ervin Santana-45 home runs allowed
Ubaldo Jimenez-126 walks
Dan Haren, Hiroki Kuroda, Bartolo Colon and Daniel Bard-18 losses

NL

Carlos Beltran-45 home runs, 126 RBI
Melky Cabrera-246 hits, 21 triples and 363 total bases
Andre Ethier-54 doubles, 138 RBI
Chase Headley-105 walks
Bryan LaHair-30 home runs, 66 RBI/runs
Carlos Ruiz and Michael Bourn-8.7 bWAR
Carlos Gonzalez-43 home runs, 135 RBI/runs, 384 total bases
Rickie Weeks-201 strikeouts
Joey Votto-66 doubles

Lance Lynn and R.A. Dickey-24 wins
Santiago Casilla-42 saves
Gio Gonzalez-252 strikeouts and 21 wins
Johan Santana-6 shutouts
James McDonald-213 strikeouts
Tim Lincecum-18 losses and 102 walks

Sunday, June 3, 2012

Tonight a Must Win for Celtics


Listen up America, because I'm about to provide some insightful basketball analysis that I'm willing to bet you won't find anywhere else.  Are you ready?

Tonight's game against Miami is a must win for the Celtics.

Alright, so perhaps I'm stating the obvious here, but it's true. Because, if they lose, their backs are to the wall and this series, for all intents and purposes, will be over. The C's will be down three games to one, facing elimination on Tuesday night at the mercy of Miami's dynamic duo; LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.  This team may have a lot of heart and pride, but there's just no way they can beat the Heat three times in five days, especially when two of those games are on the road.

It's a precarious situation to be in, but they did this to themselves.  First by allowing the 76ers to hang around for seven games.  If the Green hang on to their 18 point lead in Game 4, then they take the series in five and squeeze in a little extra rest before their showdown with Miami (and with an aging, banged up team like this, every day off is worth its weight in gold).  But since they couldn't step on Philly's throat, the young Sixers fought back and the series ultimately went the full seven.  The Celtics were clearly exhausted for Game 1 in Miami, played 48 hours after an intense, do-or-die Game 7 at the Garden.  Given their fatigue (and shoddy officiating), it was a minor miracle that Boston battled Miami to a tie in the first half before running out of gas and fading in the second as the Heat cruised to a 93-79 victory.

Game 2 was their chance to steal a win on the road and rob Miami's homecourt advantage for the remainder of the series.  I had a good feeling about that game, and the C's looked to be in pretty good shape as they took a lead deep into the fourth quarter.  With Wade ice cold and LeBron choking once again, the game was theirs for the taking.  But Paul Pierce fouled out, Wade found his stroke and Miami's supporting cast, from Mario Chalmers and Shane Battier to Udonis Haslem and James Jones, were stepping up as needed.  The Heat forced an overtime in which Boston's captain could not play.  At that point, I knew the Celts were going to lose, and they proved me right when they were forced to swallow a bitter 115-111 defeat.  In the process they squandered an unforgettable Rajon Rondo performance--44 points, 10 dimes, and 8 boards--that impressed everybody from Magic Johnson to King James himself.  It has to be said that the referees, after slapping them with four technicals in Game 1--screwed them again.  The turning point in overtime (and perhaps the series) came when Wade whacked Rondo in the face as he drove to the hoop.  The refs didn't call it, Rondo dove to the floor and the Heat used their 5-on-4 advantage to score on the other end.  Rondo would recover to drain a pair of threes, but by then it was too little, too late.   Miami had themselves a comfy 2-0 lead and were back in the driver's seat, sending the Celtics reeling back to Beantown.

As expected, Boston bounced back on their homecourt to earn their first win of the series.  LBJ was on fire early as he single-handedly kept Miami in the game, but he fizzled out in the second half and was nowhere to be found when Miami tried to mount a fourth quarter rally (led by a hobbled Mike Miller).  Boston's defense did a great job of keeping James and Wade out of the paint and forcing them to settle for long jumpers, limiting their effectiveness.  James disappeared late, Wade had another quiet game, Kevin Garnett had another big hame, and Ray Allen's shots finally started falling.  The result was a convincing 101-91 triumph.

The same thing happened last year, though.  Miami took the first two games, the Celtics won Game 3, but then Rondo dislocated his shoulder and the Heat polished his teammates off in five.  The good news this time around is that Rondo is completely healthy (even after playing all 53 minutes of Game 2) and the Heat are the ones dealing with a major injury--Chris Bosh is still out with an abdominal strain and won't be suiting up tonight.  Wade will probably bounce back but I still like Boston's chances tonight, mainly because I think tonight is the night that Brandon Bass will finally breakthrough with a big game.

Celtics 94, Heat 90

Saturday, June 2, 2012

Red Sox Retired Numbers

The Boston Red Sox have as many retired numbers--7--as they do championship banners since they were founded as one of the American League's original franchises in 1901.  It's mind boggling that a team with as much history as the Red Sox has just seven numbers bolted to the roof hanging above the right field grandstand beyond Pesky's Pole.  Bobby Doerr, Joe Cronin, Johnny Pesky, Carl Yastrzemski, Ted Williams, Jim Rice and Carlton Fisk (notice that there are no pitchers, and you can begin to see why the club went 86 years between championships) are the only ones alongside Jackie Robinson, whose number 42 was retired by every major league team in 1997 to commemorate the 50th anniversary of his historic debut with the Brooklyn Dodgers. 

But seven names in 110+ years of baseball? That figure seems awfully low to me.  How is that possible?  It's important to remember two things.  First, the franchise's golden years/dynasty that produced five World Series titles between 1903 and 1918 came during the Deadball era, when players did not have uniform numbers.  Therefore, greats such as Harry Hooper, Tris Speaker, Cy Young, etc. can't be retired. The second is that team endured a pair of prolonged stretches of remarkable ineptitude, especially from 1919 to 1933 when they failed to produce a winning season, and from 1952 through 1966, when they gradually deteriorated into a cellar dwellar and Tom Yawkey briefly considered relocation.  All teams go through rough patches, but there were many years during those three decades when the Olde Towne Team was historically bad.  It's also worth mentioning that the team's intense fans and media, combined with its stormy racial history, have dissuaded untold numbers of talented players from signing with the club while pushing established stars like Reggie Smith, Ellis Burks, and Mo Vaughn out the door.

It also doesn't help that the Red Sox adhere to a pretty strict policy with the following criteria:
-The player must be enshrined in Cooperstown
-He must have spent at least ten seasons in a Red Sox uniform

These requirements are ridiculous in my opinion, as they make all-time greats and fan favorites such as Lefty Grove, Jimmie Foxx, Dick Radatz, Luis Tiant, Fred Lynn, Nomar Garciaparra, Pedro Martinez and Manny Ramirez ineligible. Pesky is the lone exception to the rule, since he played eight seasons with Boston and does not have a plaque hanging in Cooperstown, but he's dedicated almost his entire adult life to the organization. 

Regarding the first stipulation, I can think of many outstanding players, from Fred McGriff and Dale Murphy to Jeff Bagwell and Mark McGwire, that should be in the Hall of Fame but aren't for various reasons.  You can be a great player for many years and put together a nice career but ultimately fall short of induction.  And thanks to the cronyism of various Veteran's Committees there are just as many underserving players in the Hall.  Thus, the status isn't always an accurate reflection of player's contributions.  Accordingly, I think the team should change this rule from the Hall of Fame to the less exclusive Red Sox Hall of Fame, which recognizes Boston's baseball heroes.  As for the second requirement, free agency has rendered the ten year rule obsolete.  The rule is also unfair to players who were traded away as well as unfortunate players like Tony Conigliaro who had their careers curtailed by injury. 

Needless to say, I would like the see the Sox retire more numbers.  Here are some candidates.

Slam dunks
#26 Wade Boggs (1982-1992)
-Played his first eleven seasons as the Red Sox third baseman before signing as a free agent with the New York Yankees.  From 1983 through 1989 he recorded seven consectuive seasons with at least 200 hits, an American League record later broken by Ichiro Suzuki.  He made eight All-Star teams, earned six Silver Sluggers and won five batting titles (the most ever for a third baseman), making him the team's best pure hitter since Teddy Ballgame.  No left handed hitter use the Green Monster to his advantage more than Boggs, but Adrian Gonzalez has the rest of the decade to mount a challenge.

#21 Roger Clemens (1984-1996)
-Steroids, HGH, and sour personality aside, I find it hard to believe that Cooperstown will keep out a 354 game winner with seven Cy Young awards and nearly 5,000 strikeouts under his belt. Like Barry Bonds he was already well on his way to the Hall of Fame before using steroids during the second half of his career. With Boston the Rocket rose to prominence as one of the best pitchers in baseball; he was named American League MVP in 1986, won three Cy Youngs (and deserved a couple more) and twice struck out 20 batters in a single game. Unfortunately his career in Beantown ended poorly with GM Dan Duquette letting him walk during the "twilight of his career," you know, before he won four more Cy Youngs during another decade of excellence.  You could make a case for him as the best pitcher in team history, but I'll take Pedro Martinez for his sheer dominance during the late 90s and early aughts.

Deserving
#7 Dom DiMaggio (1940-1953)
-The only title character from David Halberstam's "The Teammates" who hasn't had his number retired.  The "Little Professor" batted leadoff for a potent Red Sox lineup and was, along with his older brother Joe DiMaggio, one of the top centerfielders of his era in spite of his diminuitive frame.  Ted Williams always maintained the seven time All-Star, who batted .298 for his career like another centerfielder that wore the number seven (Mickey Mantle), was Cooperstown worthy.  Had he not lost three prime years to World War II, I'd have to believe the Veterans Committee would have inducted him.

# 24 Dwight Evans (1972-1990)
-In 19 seasons with Boston he compiled a career that many, Bill James included, believe is Hall of Fame worthy.  The rightfielder received eight Gold Gloves and made one of the most memorable catches of all time (on par with Willie Mays in the minds of many Red Sox fans) to rob Joe Morgan during Game 6 of the 1975 World Series.  To this day Dewey remains one of the most underrated and underappreciated ballplayers of all time, though the sabermetric revolution could help him get into Cooperstown someday as it did for Bert Blyleven.

#33 Jason Varitek (1997-2011)
-'Tek spent his entire fifteen year career behind the plate for the Sox as their best everyday catcher since Pudge Fisk.  The rugged, hard-nosed captain made three All-Star teams and helped guide Boston to a pair of World Series titles.  His pregame preparation was extraordinary and nobody handled a pitching staff better than he did.  Jorge Posada and Joe Mauer overshadowed him statistically and he didn't do enough to make the Hall.  Nonetheless, the Fenway Faithful will always remember him leaping into the arms of Keith Foulke and Jonathan Papelbon, just as they'll never forget the time he stuffed his mitt into Alex Rodriguez's face after Bronson Arroyo plunked the superstar on a rainy July afternoon.

#49 Tim Wakefield (1995-2011)
-Wake's not going to make the Hall of Fame, not with a career 4.41 ERA and just one All-Star appearance, but that shouldn't matter.  The knuckleballer piled up 186 wins across 17 years for the Red Sox but contributed just as much off the field.  He was truly an outstanding human being and teammate who accepted whatever role the manager asked him to fill, and he always had the team's best interest in mind.  I'm just glad he got his 200th career victory before hanging it up, and that he didn't hang around too long like Jamie Moyer.

Honorable Mention-Mel Parnell, Frank Malzone, Rico Petrocelli, Bob Stanley (all Red Sox lifers) Tony C., and Jerry Remy for his work in the booth as a color commentator.  I'd also like to see Pumpsie Green's number retired to honor his achievement of integrating the team.  It would be a nice gesture from the team that rejected Jackie Robinson, stuffed the front office with racists and has historically been less than friendly to black stars.

Present players who could be retired

#15 Dustin Pedroia (2006-)
-When healthy he's one of the most indispensable players in the game.  In four full seasons he already has made three All-Star teams, won two Gold Gloves, won AL Rookie of the Year, MVP and has a World Series ring.  It remains to be seen if he can sustain this production into his thirties--will he pull a Chase Utley and break down?  I believe he still has four or five good seasons in him, and wouldn't be surprised if he becomes the next Red Sox captain (Kevin Youkilis is another candidate, though the emergence of Will Middlebrooks makes him a possible trade option this summer).

#31 Jon Lester (2006-)
-Coming off four straight seasons with at least 15 wins and a sub 3.50 ERA, impressive figures for a southpaw that makes half his starts at Fenway.  Is off to a rocky start this year, but should finish with his typically strong numbers.  Many think he could win a Cy Young someday, and with that lineup behind him he's always a threat to win 20 games in any given season.

#34 David Ortiz (2002-)
-2004 Postseason.  Need I say more?  He's already put in his ten years with the team, and given his late career resurrection I like his chances of making the Hall of Fame.