Patriots Topple Titans

The boys are back in town

I must say, it's great to have a winning team to root for again in Boston.  Time to put this miserable summer of baseball behind us and focus on football!

Yesterday afternoon the New England Patriots kicked off their 2012 season by topping the Tennessee Titans 34-13.  The home team took an early 3-0 lead following a 28-yard field goal from Rob Bironas, but from that point forward it was all New England.

Tom Brady, as always, led the way.  The three-time Super Bowl champion eclipsed 40,000 career passing yards, becoming just the 14th quarterback in NFL history to do so.  He put together another stellar game, notching 236 yards on 23-of-31 passing to go along with a pair of TDs, one each to Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.  Combined the tight-end tandem hauled in 12 of Brady's 13 targets for 119 yards.

Running back Stevan Ridley also shone for the Patriots by piling up 125 rushing yards on 21 carries and scoring a touchdown.  He even snagged a pair of passes for good measure.  I know it's only one game, but Ridley represents a clear upgrade over BenJarvus Green-Ellis.  He's quick, explosive and fun to watch; there were times yesterday when he made Titans defenders look terrible.

On the other hand, New England's defense played a great game against the Titans, limiting them to only one touchdown.  Even more impressively, they managed to hold Chris Johnson to just four rushing yards on eleven carries.

For Tennessee, 24 year-old quarterback Jake Locker looked a little shaky in the first start of his career.  His 229 yards on 23-of-32 passing were almost identical to the numbers posted by his counterpart, but the sophomore threw just one touchdown (to Nate Washington) and turned the ball over twice, including a fumble that rookie Dont'a Hightower promptly returned for a TD.  Several of his pass attempts were wild, but overall he did make some nice plays and had a decent performance until he departed in the fourth quarter with a left shoulder injury.  Matt Hasselbeck replaced him.

New England has won nine consecutive season openers, the longest active streak in the league.  Next week they take on the Arizona Cardinals at home.

Strasburg Shut Down

Stephen Strasburg is done for the season.  Finished.  He will not pitch again in 2012.  End of story. Stick a fork in him, coach.  He's done.

Even though he is perfectly healthy.  Even though he's the undisputed ace of Washington's staff.  Even though he's only 24 years old.

But we all knew this was coming.  We've known it since before spring training, when the rigid parameters of the Strasburg plan were etched in stone and set into motion. 

1. He would have his innings capped somewhere between 160 and 180 innings.
2. He would not receive extra rest between starts
3. He would not be shut down for a while, only to resume pitching if the Nationals were in contention or reached the playoffs

No ifs, ands, or buts about it.  There would be no compromise.  No negotiations. 

It's too bad his season ended on such a low note, as his final start of 2012 was a dud.  In fact, it was the second worst outing of his career as measured by the Bill James GameScore statistic.  On Friday night he lasted just three innings (tying a career low) against the Miami Marlins, who scored five times off him just ten days after pounding him for nine hits and seven runs (five earned). In this latest beating, Giancarlo Stanton and Rob Brantly took him deep, marking only the fourth time this season that Strasburg had surrendered multiple home runs in a game.  His two strikeouts were a season low and, for the first time in his major league career, he walked more batters than he whiffed.

Even though he was slated to make his final start against David Wright's New York Mets on September 12th, the Nationals had seen enough.  They pulled the plug on his season.  Thanks for all your help, Steve, but we'll take it from here.

Strasburg, who's been losing sleep for weeks, is devastated. He concludes his first full big league season with a 15-6 record, 3.16 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 197 strikeouts in just 159.1 innings, good for an NL best 11.1 K/9 rate.  Even with his low innings total, he pitched well enough to earn some Cy Young consideration this offseason.  Unfortunately, he won't pose a serious challenge to R.A. Dickey or Johnny Cueto and will have to wait at least one more year before he can make another run at the trophy.

He could have several of them waiting in store for him; he's that good.  While many fans and pundits alike have roundly criticized the Nationals for voluntarily stripping themselves of their best shorting pitcher, I admire the organization's commitment to the plan they formulated back in February.  Even if you don't agree with the strategy, at least give them credit for sticking to their guns in the face of overwhelming public pressure.  The bottom line is they're doing what's best for their hard-throwing franchise pitcher.  They're protecting him, his arm, and his future, and you can't fault them for that.  Tommy John surgery notwithstanding, Strasburg's messy mechanics/violent throwing motion place a lot of stress on his arm, putting him at an elevated risk of serious injury.   At the end of the day, the Nats want to avoid another flameout a la Mark Prior (just one victim of the curse of Dusty Baker). They want his arm healthy and strong, able to withstand many more seasons as a frontline starting pitcher. They want to squeeze the most out of the first overall pick from the '09 draft class.

Can you really blame them?

Manager Davey Johnson carefully monitored Strasburg's workload all season long to prevent the All-Star hurler from burning through his innings limit by mid-August.  Strasburg averaged fewer than six innings per start and never pitched more than seven in any game. He threw 100 pitches or more in just ten of his 28 starts, twice eclipsing 110 pitches.  His season high was 119 in his June 8th start against the Red Sox at Fenway Park.  As the season wore on and Strasburg seemed to be fading (4.14 ERA over his last ten starts, including the three worst starts of his career based on GameScore), Johnson scaled back his workload even more.  In his past 14 turns, Strasburg came out for the seventh inning just once.

Plus, it helps that the Nats have been through this process before, albeit under totally different circumstances.  In 2011 Washington limited Jordan Zimmermann, to 161.1  innings in his first full season back from TJ surgery (but the Nats finished below .500 and nobody was calling for them to keep trotting him out there).  And you know what? It worked.  He's been even better this season.  Maybe the same thing will happen with Strasburg.  Maybe he will come back stronger as well.  The mere thought of him improving should have National League hitters tossing in their sleep winter long.

But as far as the rest of the regular season is concerned, this move isn't a big deal at all.  It doesn't change a darn thing.  The Nationals own the best record in baseball and are virtual locks to reach the postseason (99.9 percent likelihood according to coolstandings.com).  They still have more than enough starting pitching to carry them deep into October.  It's not like Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, Edwin Jackson, and Ross Detwiler are going anywhere. The lineup is still solid, and the bullpen remains unflappable.  A legitimate World Series contending team is left largely intact.  If any team could afford to shut down its ace with more than three weeks left to play, it's the Nationals.  They can, and will, storm to the finish line sans Strasburg.

But the postseason is a beast of a different nature.  Aces such as Strasburg, C.C. Sabathia, and Clayton Kershaw become even more valuable in a shortened playoff series, when every game is do-or-die.  A bona fide stopper is worth his weight in gold.  He's irreplaceable, priceless, and above all, vital.  It goes without saying that Washington's chances of winning the World Series decrease with Strasburg on the sidelines.  And while their talented young core (Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, and the aforementioned starting pitchers) suggests the Nats will be October mainstays for years to come, nothing is guaranteed in sports.  Injuries and slumps can inflict irreparable damage to a roster.  Shit happens (just ask Boston and Philly). These playoffs might be their only shot at a title; the NL East is a tough division with the Braves, Phillies, and Marlins all blessed with established veteran stars and deep pockets.  Cincinatti is rolling and the Dodgers have assembled a veritable All-Star team out in Los Angeles.  This whole thing could blow up in Washington's face if the Nats wind up letting a championship pass them by.

But that's a chanC. Johnson and GM Mike Rizzo will have to take.  Because if Strasburg blew out his arm during the NLDS or fell apart next season, they'd be answering "what if?"s for the rest of their lives. So if he tears his rotator cuff next year and/or breaks down, at least they won't have to second guess themselves for all of eternity.  They can rest easy knowing they did everything within their power to preserve his arm.

So Washington will participate in playoff baseball in our nation's capitol for the first time since 1933 without Stephen Strasburg.  As for how far they can go, nobody knows.  Just as nobody knows how Stephen Strasburg's promising career will pan out.

Reynolds Red Hot

Mark Reynolds is locked in at the plate (ESPN)

Look out, New York Yankees.  The Orioles are hot on your trail, and (with apologies to Adrian Beltre, Chase Headleyand Miguel Cabrera) they have Mark Reynolds, the hottest hitter in baseball right now.

Reynolds' recent tear shouldn't surprise anybody.  He is notoriously streaky, as are most high strikeout power-hitters.  Think Adam Dunn, Pedro Alvarez, Jay Bruce.  They're hot one minute, cold the next.  They'll look lost at the plate for weeks at a time, and then they go and homer in four straight games. They have the highest of highs and the lowest of lows.  The long balls come in bunches, and so do the whiffs.

With Reynolds, you get plenty of both.  From 2008-'11 he averaged 35 big flies and 208 strikeouts per season, so by comparison his 20 blasts and 129 whiffs this year are on the low side because he's missed 27 games.  But right now, he's so hot that his teammates should treat him like a fire hazard.  In his past seven games, Baltimore's slugging third baseman has clobbered eight home runs, driven in 16 runs and scored ten.  He just did in a week what many great sluggers need an entire month to do.

That one ridiculous week salvaged his season.  On the penultimate day in August, his batting line was an uninspiring .221/.343/.397.  Now he's up to a much more respectable .235/.353/.465, right in line with his career averages.  It's good to see Reynolds finally breaking out of his season long funk, especially after I talked him up before the season.  He started slow out of the gate with no homers and just three RBI in April, and as soon as his power came around he landed on the DL. He missed most of May and when he came back just couldn't get in a groove.  His timing might have been off, because he slumped for most of the summer.  As recently as August 5th he was hitting .203 with eight dingers and 32 RBI, well on his way to a repeat performance of Dunn's dismal 2011.  In the month of games since then, he has crushed everything in his path, batting .333/.444/.789 with a dozen moon shots, 26 RBI, and 18 walks.  He's killing it right now.

His resurgence couldn't have come at a better time for his Orioles, currently trying to unseat the visiting Yankees from first place in the AL East.  Reynolds has feasted on New York's pitching for six home runs in their past four meetings, and will have several more chances this weekend to add to his burgeoning power figures.

Votto Returns

With Votto back in the heart of the order, the Reds should keep on rolling

Joey Votto, who hadn't played since July 15th after shredding his meniscus, returned to action in yesterday's game against the Philadelphia Phillies.  While Cincinatti went on to lose, 6-2, their All-Star first baseman didn't look rusty at all.  In his first at-bat he slapped an opposite field single off two-time Cy Young award winner Roy Halladay.  Votto finished the game 2-for-3 with a walk, bumping his season batting line to a Ted Williams-esque .346/.468/.605.

Despite losing the 2010 NL MVP and best hitter in baseball for nearly two months, the red-hot Reds still managed to go 33-16 in his absence as they ran away with the NL Central.  Apparently, they didn't miss him too much.  The lineup, led by Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, Ryan Ludwick, and Todd Frazier, continued to churn out runs, averaging nearly five per game in August while posting a collective .777 OPS--their best of any month this season.  The starting rotation of Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, and Homer Bailey has remained durable and effective.  Altogether, they've started every game this season except for one, a Todd Redmond spot-start at the back end of an August 18th doubleheader.  And the bullpen, perhaps the best in baseball mainly because of Aroldis Chapman's dominance, has been untouchable


So with a healthy Votto back in the heart of their order, the rich have gotten richer.  Dusty Baker's team just might be the best in the Senior Circuit.  The Nats are right there too, just as balanced and, more importantly, blessed with superior starting pitching.  Stephen Strasburg's impending shutdown diminishes that advantage somewhat, but Washington still has plenty of depth with Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Edwin Jackson, and Ross Detwiler.  Once the playoffs roll around and rotations are shortened, that quartet should be enough to get them through the postseason. Regardless of which team is better, these two squads appear to be on a playoffs collision course. I believe Washington will prevail because they're winning the arms race and have the lineup and bullpen to match Cincinatti.

But as we've seen time and time again in postseasons past, anything can happen.

Why the Yankees Won't Collapse

Much has been made of the Yankees summer swoon, and rightly so. After all, double digit divisional leads don't typically evaporate in the span of six weeks, but that's exactly what has happened here in the second half.  Starting with a demoralizing four game sweep in Oakland in which all four Yankee defeats were of the one-run variety, the team in pinstripes has gone 20-25 (.444).  They have been even worse lately; since August 20th the Yanks are 5-9, allowing the charging Baltimore Orioles to catch them in the standings on Tuesday night, marking the first time since June 11th that Joe Girardi's team did not have sole possession of first place.  New York avoided getting swept at the Trop by salvaging a 6-4 win over the Rays in the series finale yesterday.  Meanwhile to the North, Toronto beat the O's 6-4, dropping Baltimore a game behind New York in the standings.

But that's subject to change by the end of the evening.  With the Yankees in town for a four game set at Camden Yards starting tonight, the birds have an opportunity to vault back into first place.  They'll send first half ace Jason Hammel (8-6, 3.54 ERA) to the hill in his first start since having knee surgery on July 16th.  The visitors will counter with 25 year-old rookie David Phelps (3-4, 3.13 ERA) in a matchup that seems to favor Baltimore, at least on paper.

But even if the Bronx Bombers lose again tonight, I think they're going to be fine for the rest of September. They're not going to suffer an epic meltdown like the one their Boston rivals endured last season.  Here's why:

Their schedule isn't that difficult
They get two precious off days to recuperate, and while 14 of their remaining 26 games are on the road, they don't have to do much traveling.  Only three of those games (Minnesota 9/24-9/26) will be played in a different time zone, which means no red-eye cross country flights to the West Coast. Their last ten games of the season--against the Twins, Blue Jays, and Red Sox--all qualify as favorable matchups.  Then again, the Red Sox had a soft schedule last September, too, and all those games against the Orioles did them no favors.  When a team is cold, it's cold, regardless of who is challenging them on the field.  For what it's worth, entering play today the Yanks have an 85.2 percent chance of making the playoffs with a 59.8 percent chance of winning the AL East (according to coolstandings.com).  By comparison, the site gives Baltimore 47.3 percent odds of advancing into the postseason and just a 17.2 percent chance of capturing the division flag.  The third place Rays, sitting one and a half games back of the Orioles, are viewed as the greater threat.

They're getting healthier
Injuries have played a big part in New York's second half slump, but with several key players back in action the Yankees will once again be a full fighting force.  Alex Rodriguez has returned from a six week stint on the Disabled List with a fractured hand (courtesy of Felix Hernandez) and Mark Teixeira, who's been sidelined with a grade 1 calf strain for the past ten days, could come back as soon as tomorrow.  While both players have declined in recent years, they're still above average hitters and proven run producers.   Teixeira's 81 RBI lead the team, and with a big September he could clear the 30 homer/100 RBI benchmarks for the ninth consecutive season (he needs seven and 19, respectively).  Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson have been dinged up lately, which explains their recent slumps, but neither one figures to miss any time.  C.C. Sabathia hasn't skipped a beat since spending time on the DL last month, and the rotation will welcome back Andy Pettitte and Ivan Nova in the coming weeks.

The Orioles will fade
I know I sound like a broken record at this point, but it's going to happen, possibly as soon as this weekend.  Their luck will run out sooner or later, and when it does, kiss first place good-bye.  They have six more games with the Red Sox, and I'm hoping Boston can spoil their season the way they spoiled ours.  With a meaningless final month of baseball sitting in front of them, that's all Red Sox Nation really has to root for; the Revenge Sox, with Pedro Ciriaco playing the part of Robert Andino.

They're the Yankees
They're winning machines.  Going back to Don Mattingly's final season in 1995, this franchise has made the postseason every year except one (2008).  This a veteran team comprised of proven winners with plenty of big game experience under their belts.  The clubhouse is loaded with leaders (Pettitte, Derek Jeter, even A-Rod) who have all been there before and don't crack under pressure.  This team has been taking care of business for nearly a century now, and always seems to rise to the occasion.  They don't fold, and they won't. Because if they choke, it will be over Jeter's dead body.