My NL All-Star Picks

Harper has the potential to dominate the ASG (Sporting News)

Voting ends in under 10 hours! Here are my National League picks (more tough ones than in the American League, I think), with all stats current through yesterday:

C Buster Posey
It's Posey and everyone else in the Senior Circuit this year, as he's been one of the few bright spots on a putrid Giants team with his .344/.422/.529 line (155 wRC+). His 10 homers are tied with Yasmany Grandal for most at the position in the NL, and his 3.0 fWAR lead the field comfortably (nobody else has two).

1B Paul Goldschmidt
The best offensive player in baseball deserves the nod here. Eric Thames and Ryan Zimmerman have cooled down considerably from their hot starts, while Freddie Freeman still hasn't returned from the wrist injury he sustained in May. Joey Votto is having a great first half for once, but he's essentially been a lesser version of Goldschmidt.

2B Daniel Murphy
Josh Harrison's neck-and-neck in WAR but Murphy blows him away on offense, as he's essentially replicating the MVP-caliber year he had at the plate last season with a .339/.391/.578 line and 14 homers.

3B Justin Turner
Arenado's locked into a ridiculously close race with Kris Bryant, but the real battle should be between Anthony Rendon and Justin Turner, who are presently tied atop the NL WAR leaderboard with 3.3 apiece. Rendon's had a sneaky-good year for Washington despite being overshadowed by Bryce Harper, Max Scherzer, and others, while Turner is batting an insane .379/.466/.535 thanks to his .414 BABIP. Turner's clearly been the best hitter at the position this year in either league, putting up numbers that shouldn't be possible in Coors Field, let alone the pitcher's paradise of Dodger Stadium. It's telling that Turner leads NL third basemen in FanGraphs offensive value despite playing just 55 games thus far, which is why I'm giving him my vote (it also helps that he's been a plus on defense).

SS Corey Seager
This is a two-horse race between Zack Cozart and Corey Seager, who are almost indistinguishable in terms of value. Cozart has been the best-hitting shortstop in the NL this year, but Seager gets on base at the exact same rate and has played 15 more games. Defensively they're both excellent, and offensively it's very close when you account for their home parks, as Seager's is brutal on hitters whereas Cozart's is quite generous. When it's too close to call for All-Star candidates I defer to the one with more star power (it is an All-STAR game, after all), which in this case is Seager.

OF Bryce Harper
When your life's mission is making baseball fun again and you have hair like this, you kind of have to be in the All-Star Game.

OF Marcell Ozuna
Having a very underrated season, batting .315/.378/.565 with 20 homers already. If you asked fans to pick a Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton would win in a landslide, but Ozuna has the same number of homers and leads his teammate in most offensive categories, hence why his fWAR total is nearly twice as great (2.7 - 1.5). Ozuna got off to a huge start last year before fading in the second half, so it remains to be seen if he can sustain this level of play for an entire season.

OF Cody Bellinger
It's close between him and Charlie Blackmon, but Bellinger has the same number of fWAR (2.4) in 19 fewer games and has been obliterating baseballs lately. He's much more fun to watch than Blackmon and is a far better hitter after taking their home parks into account. He's also on pace for a bajillion home runs (roughly) and needs to be on the field so someone can replicate this picture with him and Aaron Judge.

If fans got to pick a starter I'd vote Max Scherzer, who's surpassed Clayton Kershaw as the best pitcher in baseball this year (for now).

2015 NL Silver Slugger Review

Harper won his first of what will likely be many Silver Sluggers (CBS Washington)

The National League did a much better job of selecting its Silver Sluggers than the American League did. There was but one selection I disagreed with, and only by the slimmest of margins.

C Buster Posey

Posey was an easy choice after leading the position in the triple slash stats as well as wOBA (.363) and wRC+ (138). His 95 RBI were also tops among catchers.

1B Paul Goldschmidt

Really tough call here between Goldy and Joey Votto. Goldschmidt hit for a little more power, but Votto reached base at a higher rate than anyone besides Bryce Harper. Their OPSes were within five points of each other, but Votto came out slightly ahead in wRC+ (172 to 164) and wOBA (.427 to .418). So as great as Goldschmidt was, Votto was just a hair better.

2B Dee Gordon

Gordon's not a traditional Silver Slugger recipient in that he amassed just four homers and 46 RBI, but he was still the best-hitting second baseman in a weak NL field (the only other leaguemate worthy of consideration was Daniel Murphy). His 205 hits and 58 steals led the majors while his .333 batting average paced the NL--numbers that would make Ichiro Suzuki smile.

3B Nolan Arenado

At the start of the year, who would have guessed that Arenado would lead the loop in home runs, the majors in RBI and total bases, and his position in slugging? I didn't see any of those things coming true, let alone all of them, and I'm sure you didn't, either. As long as he sticks around in Colorado, he'll probably have several more years like this.

SS Brandon Crawford

Crawford was one of the few National League shortstops who was an asset with the stick this year, taking advantage of Troy Tulowitzki switching leagues and a down year by Ian Desmond to cop his first (and probably only) Silver Slugger. His 117 wRC+ was the highest by a shortstop who qualified for the batting title, and his 21 home runs were exceeded only by Carlos Correa at the position. With a stronger finish Jhonny Peralta would have won, but his second half fade (one homer and a .604 OPS after August 1st) cost him what would have been his first Silver Slugger.

OF Bryce Harper

The deserving NL MVP was an obvious choice after leading the world in OBP (.460), slugging (.649), OPS (1.109), and OPS+ (195), not to mention the National League in runs (118) and homers (42).

OF Andrew McCutchen

'Cutch earned his fourth straight Silver Slugger, recovering from a slow start to bat .292/.401/.488 (146 wRC+) with 23 homers and 96 RBI.

OF Carlos Gonzalez

CarGo terrorized NL pitching in the second half, cranking 30 homers after Independence Day en route to his first 40-homer season. That monster finish helped him to his best season and first Silver Slugger since his 2010 breakthrough.

P Madison Bumgarner

Few pitchers help their own cause more than Bumgarner, who earned his second straight silver bat after clubbing five home runs in just 77 official at-bats. His .247/.275/.468 batting line would be fine for an outfielder, much less a starting pitcher.

NLCS Preview: Can Great Pitching Stop Great Hitting?

Rizzo and his teammates will give the Mets fits (Athlon Sports)

This year's NLCS is, at its core, a battle between the arguably the best starting rotation and best lineup in baseball. The Cubs have good pitchers, of course, and the Mets have some bats too, but that's basically what this series boils down to. Can New York tame Chicago's fearsome lineup?

 

If anyone's up to the challenge, it would be the Mets' nasty trio of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard, any one of whom is capable of dominating any time they take the mound. They'll need to, as New York's bullpen is pretty iffy before you get to Jeurys Familia in the ninth. Give Cubs hitters enough at-bats against the Mets' soft middle relief, and pretty soon it's going to turn into batting practice.

 

But if anyone's capable of sending those guys to an early exit, it's Chicago.  Because for all New York's pitching, the Cubs simply have too much firepower. There are no holes in that lineup, which is stuffed with power and led the National League in walks. Chicago does strike out a lot--more than any other team in the majors this year--which could easily be exploited by a Mets staff that fanned 8.2 batters per nine during the regular season. But with Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, and Kris Bryant all a threat to go yard at any time, the Cubs can make the Mets pay for the few mistakes they make.

 

Chicago's pitching staff is no joke, either, led by Cy Young candidate Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester--a proven postseason stud. If the Mets can beat either of those guys then they'll be in good shape, but the Cubs have a formidable bullpen capable of preventing further damage, thus allowing Chicago's bats to get back into the game.  It also helps that the Cubs have master tactician Joe Maddon at the helm, which ensures that they won't be undone by any Grady Little-esque errors of lunacy.

 

There's no question about who was the better team during the regular season. The Mets won 90 games in a division where three out of the five teams lost at least that many while the Cubs, winners of 97, finished third in their division. New York's lineup is average at best, not to mention heavily dependent on Lucas Duda, Yoenis Cespedes, and Curtis Granderson for production. Neutralize them, and the Mets will be hard-pressed to score. Stifle Chicago's top hitters, however, and the Cubs can still put runs on the board. They can hurt you in so many ways.

 

Like the ALCS, this has all the makings of a great series. Also like the ALCS, I think the team with the better bats will win. Cubs in six.

The Real NL All-Stars

That blur is Dee Gordon, perhaps the fastest man in baseball (Business Insider)

C Buster Posey
Posey's been the National League's best-hitting catcher (only Oakland's Stephen Vogt has been better with the stick) and most valuable backstop in baseball per fWAR. That makes him an obvious choice for his third All-Star selection.

1B Paul Goldschmidt
If not for Bryce Harper's incredible season, we'd be showering all that praise unto Goldschmidt, whose .350 batting average, .466 OBP, and 62 walks are tops in the major leagues. He's also blasted 20 home runs, stolen 15 bases, and racked up 5.4 bWAR--a rounding error below Harper's 5.5.

2B Dee Gordon
I know in my heart of hearts that Joe Panik is the better ballplayer and will probably end up with better numbers, but there's no denying Gordon's first-half accomplishments. He's having the kind of year Jose Altuve did last year, what with his .350 batting average (just a tick below Goldschmidt), 26 steals, and ML-leading 114 hits. His .411 BABiP is unsustainable, he never walks (10 free passes) and just hit his first home run of the year the other day (an inside-the-park job), but I'd love to see his game-changing speed on display at this year's game.

3B Todd Frazier
Really close call between Frazier and Nolan Arenado, who's been hitting out of his mind lately, but Frazier's already superior numbers are even more impressive when you remember Arenado gets to play half his games at Coors Field. Arenado's defense has been better, but Frazier's been the game's best-hitter at the hot corner. What's more, his 48 extra base hits and 186 total bases are tops in the majors.

SS Brandon Crawford
Troy Tulowitzki and Jhonny Peralta are bigger names, but Crawford's been the best shortstop in baseball this year by a considerable margin. His 11 home runs (a career-high), 47 RBI, and .207 ISO top the position, and he's a strong defender to boot. The Giants have arguably the best double-play combo in baseball between him and Panik.

Harper's the very definition of an All-Star (ABC News)

OF Bryce Harper
Harper's been the best player in baseball this year. There's really nothing more to say.

OF Giancarlo Stanton
It's a shame Stanton got injured, because he was on pace for close to 60 home runs and 150 RBI. Nobody's hit 60 homers since 2001, when Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa both did it, and 150 RBI hasn't been done since Alex Rodriguez during his 2007 MVP campaign. Stanton's the only player today capable of such historic power numbers, so let's wish him a speedy recovery.

OF Joc Pederson
I'm already growing tired of the Kris Bryant-Pederson rookie race coverage, but I can't wait to see what Pederson will do in his first All-Star Game. He's having a Jose Bautista-type season with a .240-ish average but stellar power and on-base numbers, and he also happens to be a pretty good center fielder. The 23 year-old is the NL version of Mike Trout.

As for who the starting pitcher should be, well, that's easy. Ladies and gentlemen: Max Scherzer.

Wright Following in Rolen's Footsteps

Wright has missed significant time in 5 of the past 6 seasons (CBS New York)

With David Wright sidelined by yet another injury, this time out indefinitely with spinal stenosis, I couldn't help but think of another talented two-way third baseman who became a walking medical bill in his 30s.

For almost a decade before Wright burst on the scene with the Mets, Scott Rolen was the National League's best at the hot corner. In fact, from 1997-2004, Rolen ranked third among MLB position players in fWAR behind only Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez. I was surprised to see that during this time, Rolen was a more valuable player than Chipper Jones, who many feel is Hall of Fame-bound.

Rolen appeared headed for Cooperstown as well following his monster 2004 campaign, in which he was worth 9.1 bWAR and posted a 1.007 OPS. Like Nomar Garciaparra and countless others throughout baseball history, however, he was unable to sustain his early success as injuries sapped his performance during his 30s. Multiple shoulder surgeries wrecked his career, preventing him from completing what was shaping up to be a Hall of Fame resume.

Wright, who also had a Cooperstown-caliber start to his career, has closely mirrored Rolen's trajectory. Both debuted at 21, secured everyday roles at 22, and immediately emerged as elite players. After remaining mostly healthy and productive throughout their 20s, they began experiencing injury problems and deteriorating performance in their early 30s.

Through age 32 (Wright's current age) their numbers are remarkably similar:

Rolen 1,505 G 954 R 380 2B 261 HR 1,012 RBI 104 SB .283/.372/.507 (126 OPS+) 55 bWAR
Wright 1,516 G 910 R 375 2B 231 HR 943 RBI 193 SB .298/.377/.494 (134 OPS+) 49.9 bWAR

Wright's future is unknown in the wake of his latest malady, but appears gloomy based on how the second half of Rolen's career played out. Constantly beset by injuries, Rolen averaged just 11 home runs and 57 RBI per season during his 30s. The Mets can only hope that Wright, who is owed $87 million over the next five seasons, avoids a similar decline.

NL April All-Stars

Gonzalez leads a crowded field at first base (Huffington Post)

All stats through May 1 unless otherwise noted. Scroll down to see my AL team.

C Derek Norris
Gave a lot of thought to A.J. Pierzynski, who's currently hitting above .400, but went with Norris because he's played almost twice as many games and has still been really good. With just two walks to his named this year, Norris hasn't shown any of the patience that helped him to a .361 OBP last season, but he's made up for that by cracking 10 doubles and batting .329.

1B Adrian Gonzalez
As great as Paul Goldschmidt's been, Gonzalez has been a little better. His eight homers and 65 total bases lead the National League, while his .765 slugging, 1.189 OPS, and 228 OPS+ are tops in the majors. Simply put, those are videogame numbers. Sincere apologies to Joey Votto and Anthony Rizzo as well.

2B Dee Gordon
The Marlins' new second baseman and leadoff man is playing out of his mind right now, with a major league-leading 41 hits and .423 batting average. Incredible, none of those hits have cleared the fences and only six have gone for extra bases, so Gordon's currently pulling the rare trick of batting above .400 but slugging below .500. He does have nine steals, but those have been counterbalanced by his six caught-stealing attempts.

3B Matt Carpenter
Carpenter continues to excel in his role as the catalyst of the Cardinals offense, batting an obscene .378/.446/.656 with 21 runs scored and an ML-leading 14 doubles. His sizzling start his him on track for a similar season to the MVP-caliber one he enjoyed two years ago.

SS Troy Tulowitzki
Hasn't been able to replicate his ferocious start from a year ago but still had a great April, hitting .308/.321/.526 with 11 doubles. Tulo has only two home runs so far, but the power will come so long as he's healthy.

OF Giancarlo Stanton
Stanton's picked up right where he left off last year, slashing .282/.378/.588 with six bombs and a league-leading 22 RBI.

OF Bryce Harper
Harper's light-tower power has already produced five home runs, but it's his new and improved batting eye that's drawn attention. His .433 OBP has been fueled by 23 walks--most in the bigs. He's also stayed healthy, appearing in all two dozen of Washington's games. If he can stay off the disabled list, this could be the year he finally breaks out and becomes the superstar he was pre-ordained to be.

OF Matt Kemp
Petco hasn't put a dent in Kemp's numbers, as the 30 year-old is batting a healthy .330/.359/.474 with 10 extra base hits, 14 RBI, and four steals in four attempts. Only one home run so far, but I wouldn't worry given that he's topped 20 in five of the past six seasons.

Harvey has regained his form since returning from TJ surgery (CBS New York)

SP Matt Harvey
Harvey has returned from Tommy John surgery just as dominant as he was before the procedure, going 5-0 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. His 8.5 K/BB ratio is unreal.

SP Johnny Cueto
Last year's NL Cy Young runner-up and free agent-to-be is setting himself up for a giant payday. The Reds ace is leading the majors in innings and WHIP with more than a strikeout per inning, not to mention a 1.95 ERA.

SP Gerrit Cole
Cole appears to have taken the leap to acehood based on his 1.76 ERA and 10.3 K/9 mark through his first five starts.

SP Zack Greinke
Greinke's become something of an afterthought while sharing the same rotation with Clayton Kershaw, but he's having a fabulous season in his own right with a 1.93 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.

SP Max Scherzer
1-3 record aside, my preseason NL Cy Young pick is making me look good with his league-leading 1.26 ERA and 1.93 FIP.

RP Tony Watson
In line to become the Pirates closer if and when Mark Melancon stumbles, Watson's been lights-out with a 2.51 ERA and 0.77 WHIP out of Pittsburgh's 'pen.

CL Aroldis Chapman
Cincinnati's flamethrowing closer has yet to allow an earned run in 11 appearances and currently sports a 16 K/9 rate. Need I say more?

2015 Comeback Candidates (NL)

Uggla is hoping to win a job with the Nationals this year (Chat Sports)

The following National Leaguers should do better in 2015 than they did a year ago.

C Wilin Rosario
After cranking 49 home runs and posting an .820 OPS (107 OPS+) between 2012 and 2013 combined, a couple of DL stints limited the Rockies backstop to just 13 home runs and a .739 OPS (93 OPS+) last year. Health permitting, he'll hit much better in his age-26 season.

1B Mark Trumbo
Trumbo's first season in Arizona was a disappointment, as he missed nearly half the season with a stress fracture in his left foot and was worth 1.1 wins below replacement. Seeing as how he averaged 2.6 bWAR from 2011-2013, when he was mostly healthy, and blasted 95 home runs. The 29 year-old slugger deserves a mulligan, unless the Diamondbacks decide to trade him.

2B Dan Uggla
Uggla's career went south in a hurry, from 2012 All-Star to spring training invite with the Washington Nationals. Many pointed to his age as the reason for his dramatic decline, but few were aware that Uggla was playing through an undiagnosed concussion last year, when he had a .442 OPS in 52 games. The condition prevented him from picking up the ball and undoubtedly contributed to his horrendous batting figures. The soon-to-be 35 year-old is still a longshot to make the big club with Anthony Rendon entrenched at the keystone, but the three-time All-Star is suddenly much more intriguing now that he can actually see what he's trying to hit.

3B David Wright
Wright was a mess last year, playing through a shoulder contusion that hampered his power and resulted in what was the worst season of his career by far. The seven-time All-Star should do better than the .698 OPS he managed last year, especially given his proven ability to bounce back from previous down years (2009 and 2011).

SS Jean Segura
The 2013 All-Star stunk last year, hitting just five home runs to go along with his lowly .246/.289/.326 batting line. Hit well down the stretch (.784 OPS after September 2nd), which gives me hope that he'll have more success in his age-25 season. I don't think he's as good as his 2013 numbers suggest, but I'm willing to bet he's better than last year's numbers say he was.

Gonzalez was both hurt and ineffective in 2014 (Rox Walk Off)

OF Bryce Harper
Injuries prevented Harper from being the dynamic player he was in his first two big league campaigns, limiting him to just 100 games, four stolen base attempts, and 13 home runs. Still just 22, Harper has plenty of room to grow, and this could be the year he finally makes the leap to superstardom.

OF Carlos Gonzalez
Gonzalez missed a ton of time last year, needing two separate surgeries on his index finger and left knee. No wonder he batted a meager .238/.292/.431 (89) OPS+ when he did play. Missing time is nothing new to CarGo, who's never played more than 145 games in any season, but even last year's paltry total of 70 was a new career low for him. Expect the 29 year-old former batting champ to be on the field more regularly and play better this year.

OF Jay Bruce
Bruce was brutal last year, bottoming out at ..217/.281/.373 (84 OPS+). He struggled mightily after returning from knee surgery in late May, but says he feels great and should be good to go for 2015. When healthy, Bruce is one of the best right fielders and power hitters in the game, and a big rebound from him will go a long way towards helping Cincinnati contend in the loaded NL Central.

U Ryan Braun
The last two seasons have been well below Braun's standards, but the 31 year-old is still young enough to have another big season or two left in him. The last two years combined he's had 28 homers, 119 RBI, and 15 steals, numbers I see as a good baseline for his 2015 production.

San Francisco could use Cain to get back on track (StanGraphs)

SP Cliff Lee
Lee made just 13 starts last year due to strains in his throwing arm that required two separate trips to the 60 day DL, but was still effective when healthy. The few times Lee was able to pitch, he was the same old guy, putting up a 2.96 FIP and striking out six batters for every one he walked. He's getting up there in years (turns 37 in August), but still appears to have plenty left in the tank.

SP Matt Harvey
Harvey never threw a pitch in 2014 because he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. He was filthy prior to the injury, and the Mets hope he's still filthy when he comes back at age 26.

SP Jose Fernandez
The 2013 NL Rookie of the Year was off to a sizzling start before Tommy John surgery cut his sophomore season short. Miami's hoping their 22 year-old budding ace doesn't skip a beat in his first post-surgery season.

SP Brandon McCarthy
McCarthy pitched 200 innings for the first time last year but wasn't very good, going 10-15 with a 4.05 ERA splitting time between Arizona and New York (Yankees). Lucky for him, he's in the perfect place to rejuvenate his career: Dodger Stadium.'

SP Matt Cain
Cain failed to complete 180 innings for the first time since 2005, making just 15 mediocre starts and missing the entire second half after undergoing elbow surgery to remove bone chips. A clean elbow in his throwing arm should do wonders for Cain, one of the National League's better starting pitchers before last year (an NL version of James Shields, really). The Giants need him to return to form if they want to repeat as World Champions in 2015.

RP Jason Grilli
The 2013 All-Star closer will try to regain his mojo with Atlanta after a down 2014 in which he spent time on the DL, lost his closer's job in Pittsburgh to Mark Melancon, and was traded to the Angels (where he was a setup man in a shaky closer situation). The Braves are going to be bad after trading away their two best positon players--Jason Heyward and Justin Upton--but hopefully Grilli won't be.

Future Hall of Famers (NL)

Rollins has a better Hall of Fame case then you realize (LATimes)

Same deal as the last post--no absurdly young players like Jose Fernandez, Wil Myers, and Matt Harvey.

NL East
Atlanta Braves
Nobody on the Braves at present seems to have a great shot at induction. Nick Markakis is already more than halfway to 3,000 hits at the end of his age-30 season, but even if he gets there he'll probably be remembered more as a Johnny Damon complementary type of player.

Miami Marlins
Giancarlo Stanton
If that dude stays healthy (no more Tony Conigliaro-esque scares), he's going to end up in Cooperstown. It's a given.

New York Mets
David Wright
Peaked early but has had enough success since to keep him on pace to finish among the game's all-time great third basemen. The seven-time All-Star just turned 32 and is already at 50 bWAR, which means he only needs to play like an average regular over the rest of his contract to get into Hall-territory.

Philadelphia Phillies
Jonathan Papelbon
One of the best closers ever, hands-down. Has been phenomenal for a decade now and remained effective into his mid-30s. Might not be Mariano Rivera, but who is?

Chase Utley
Utley's counting numbers won't blow anybody away, but his towering five-year peak and subsequent stretch of solid seasons should be enough to get him in. The 36 year-old is already worthy with 61.5 bWAR; now he just needs to pad his career totals. Would be great if he could get to 2,000 hits--he's 431 away.

Washington Nationals
Bryce Harper
Like Mike Trout, I'm willing to concede him a spot in Cooperstown based on how ridiculously good he was at such a young age.

NL Central
Chicago Cubs
The Cubbies are loaded with young talent and probably have a good number of Hall of Famers on their team or about to arrive, but it's just too early to tell.

Cincinnati Reds
Joey Votto
Perhaps the best hitter in baseball when healthy, the 2010 NL MVP is under contract for nine more years at least, which will give him plenty of time to rack up impressive career numbers. Unless his career dissolves Don Mattingly-style, he'll get to Cooperstown.

Milwaukee Brewers
Their best candidate has been caught using PEDs twice, so yeah. Francisco Rodriguez, last seen with the Brew Crew, has compiled 348 saves at the end of his age 32 season, so 400 is a very good possibility and 500 is attainable.

Pittsburgh Pirates
'Cutch could very well make it in. See below.

St. Louis Cardinals
Matt Holliday
Has been an outstanding hitter for more than a decade and is coming up on 2,000 hits and 300 homers.  Proved he could still be a great hitter away from Coors Field and has continued to put up big numbers as pitching has overtaken the game.

NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks
Sorry, D-backs. Grit only gets you so far, and usually not to Cooperstown.

Colorado Rockies
Troy Tulowitzki
His pre-30 career arc is eerily similar to Nomar Garciaparra's, which is to say he'd have to be chronically injured throughout the rest of his playing days to screw up his Cooperstown chances.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw
If Kershaw retired tomorrow we'd remember him the same way we remember Sandy Koufax. Reached 40 bWAR after his age 26 season, so even if he craps out at 30 he'll have probably accomplished enough by then.

Jimmy Rollins
J-Roll is going to have a very interesting case, especially since his most similar statistical oomp is Barry Larkin (and his second-best is another worthy Hall of Famer--Alan Trammell). A great defensive shortstop with power and speed, he's going to wind up with around 1,500 runs, 2,500 hits, 500 doubles, 500 steals, 250 home runs, and 1,000 RBI. The sheer volume of his counting numbers are going to be hard to overlook, even if his peak wasn't that great (2007 NL MVP notwithstanding).

San Diego Padres
Even with all their recent trades and added star power, I still don't consider any Padres to be probable Hall of Famers. Maybe Matt Kemp...

San Francisco Giants
Tim Hudson
Huddy has had quite the career, which has seen him win 214 games (most among active pitchers) while piling up more than 3,000 quality innings (122 ERA+).  The end if probably near as he'll turn 40 next year,  but he's remained effective into his late 30s and could have one more solid year left in him. Pitching for San Francisco won't hurt.

It's possible
Aramis Ramirez
One of the better-hitting third basemen to ever play the game, but probably needs a few more productive seasons so he can hit some major milestones such as 400 home runs, 500 doubles, 2,500 hits, and 1,500 RBI. If he hits those benchmarks, it's going to be hard to leave him out.

Adrian Gonzalez
Having a Mark Teixeira-type career, but will need several more big seasons to be a legit candidate.

Carl Crawford
Was so good during his 20s that he'll have a good chance if he can just last into his late 30s (kinda like Tim Raines or Kenny Lofton).

Ryan Braun
See Crawford, Carl.

Jon Lester and Cole Hamels
Both need to keep it up through the end of the decade at least, but if they do their combination of postseason and regular season success should carry them to Cooperstown.

Justin Upton and Andrew McCutcehn
Have accomplished so much already, but their only midway through their primes and still have a lot of baseball left.

Starlin Castro, Jason Heyward, Buster Posey, Paul Goldschmidt, Jay Bruce, Madison Bumgarner
All are off to amazing starts--check back in five years.

Mesoraco's Monster Breakout

Though inconsistent, Mesoraco has enjoyed a tremendous season (RantSports)

The Reds were swept in Baltimore yesterday, falling to the Orioles 9-7 to wrap up an ugly road trip where Cincinnati lost all but one of its six games. It's been an ugly summer for the Reds, who were very much in contention through the All-Star Break but have sputtered since, losing 30 of 45 in the second half as injuries to Joey Votto, Mat Latos and Homer Bailey took their toll.

One positive takeaway from this season, however, is that Cincinnati appears to have developed an All-Star caliber catcher. 26 year-old Devin Mesoraco's been a revelation behind the plate, emerging as one of the game's most dangerous offensive catchers in his fourth big league season. In the wake of yesterday's 4-for-4 performance, he's now batting an eye-popping .286/.365/.542 (153 OPS+) on the year with 21 home runs--most among everyday catchers. His 69 RBI rank third behind Buster Posey and Miguel Montero, both of whom have significant advantages in playing time. In the National League only Giancarlo Stanton has a superior AB/HR ratio. If the Reds weren't so helpless out of the race, he'd make a pretty good MVP candidate.

It's not unusual to see catchers break out later than position players at other positions, but Mesoraco's transformation has been truly stunning. He was a nothing before this year, a career .225 hitter with 16 home runs and -0.5 bWAR to his name. Now he's one of the best hitters in baseball. Out of all this year's biggest breakthroughs (Charlie Blackmon, Corey Dickerson, Josh Harrison, Brock Holt), none of shined brighter than Mesoraco.

The only issue with Mesoraco (besides subpar baserunning, but good luck finding a catcher who runs well) is his incredible streakiness. All year long, it seems, has been alternating hot and cold streaks for the Reds' backstop, who began the year on fire. He was hitting .500/.541/.870 through May 18th, only to post a .521 OPS with 23 strikeouts over his next 21 games. That was followed by a torrid three-week stretch ending on the Fourth of July where he blasted six home runs and OPS'ed 1.287. He leveled off through the rest of July, then hit the skids in August, batting a measly .228/.340/.354 with just two home runs.

September should bring better results for Mesoraco, and by the looks of things yesterdat, it already has.

Stanton Slugging Way to MVP

Stanton's superstar-caliber season should result in his first MVP award (RantSports)

Four weeks ago I wrote that given injuries to Troy Tulowitzki and Andrew McCutchen, Yasiel Puig had emerged as the new favorite for National League MVP because of his Mike Trout-esque production. But in light of Puig's recent offensive struggles (.185/.279/.217 with no home runs and four RBI since August 4th) his stock has fallen considerably.

During the same time Giancarlo Stanton's stock has risen substantially. With nine long balls, 27 RBI and a 1.078 OPS over the past four weeks, Stanton enjoyed one of his best stretches of the season during the dog days of August. And after slugging his 35th home run of the season last night, becoming the first player in either league to reach 100 RBI in the process, it's clear that if the season ended today Stanton would deserve to walk away with MVP honors.

He is, according to bWAR, the second-most valuable position player in the National League behind Jason Heyward (much of whose value derives from his defense) and third overall behind Clayton Kershaw and Heyward. FanGraphs rates him as the most valuable batter in the Senior Circuit, just a smidge above Jonathan Lucroy and tops among all major leaguers in WPA.

Of course, by most conventional metrics Stanton is clearly the best hitter in the National League. He ranks first in home runs and RBI, walks and OBP, total bases and SLG, OPS and OPS+, and a host of other categories like extra base hits, runs created, times on base, and adjusted batting runs. He's been incredibly durable, playing in all 137 of the Marlins' games thus far, a force in the middle of their lineup everyday.

But, contrary to what those who voted Miguel Cabrera over Trout the last two years believe, the MVP award should not simply go to the best hitter. It should go to the most valuable player which, in the case of a position player, includes defense and baserunning. Cabrera was clearly a liability in those two facets of the game, but Stanton is not. He plays a decent right field and runs the bases well for a big man, with 10 stolen bases in 11 attempts and three baserunning runs above average this year. He's not a well-rounded superstar like Trout or McCutchen, but he's not a one-dimensional slugger like Cabrera, either.

And to those who say an MVP must come from a winning team (and ignore the fact that one player has no control over how his teammates play or his front office constructs a roster), please take note of how much the Marlins have improved from last year. In 2013 with Stanton missing more than a quarter of the season, Miami lost 100 games and finished last in the NL East. This year, despite losing reigning Rookie of the Year and staff ace Jose Fernandez to Tommy John surgery in May, the Marlins have won almost as many games as they've lost and are third in their division. Few expected Miami to have anything close to a winning record, especially after losing an elite arm so early in the season.

But Stanton, to his credit, has carried the Marlins offense and helped keep the team within shouting distance of the second wild card. He's been integral to one of this season's most unlikely turnarounds, keeping Miami afloat long after it should have slipped beneath the waves. Stanton's made the Marlins relevant again. That might not be as sexy as leading a team to a division title, but after seeing how low they sunk last year it's still pretty darn impressive.

Holliday Heating Up

After three tough months at the plate, Holliday finally looks locked in

You wouldn't know it by looking at the final numbers, but Matt Holliday got off to a painfully slow start last year. When play began on June 3rd he was hitting .244/.329/.415 with eight home runs through his first 51 games of the season. The early season slump, combined with his age (33) and coming on the heels of back-to-back seasons of declining OPS, led many to speculate that Holliday's best days were behind him.

Only the six-time All-Star wasn't done. Far from it, in fact. Holliday proceeded to snap out of his , of course, and was fine from that point forward. He hit .333/.423/.535 the rest of the way, ending up with a .300/.389/.490 batting line in addition to his 22 home runs and 94 RBI. Another typically excellent offensive campaign for the St. Louis Cardinal, who was one of just nine players last year to top 20 home runs, 90 RBI and a .300 batting average. Only three National Leaguers did it; Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, and Holliday. Note that Goldy and Freeman play first base, a less challenging defensive position than left field per Bill James's defensive spectrum.

This season appears to be following a similar script; sluggish start, strong finish. Only this time around, the funk was a little deeper, lasting  about a month longer. Through July 7th Holliday was hitting a disappointing .260/.367/.373 with only five home runs, showing none of the power that helped him swat at least 19 every year for the past nine. Once again, it seemed as though Holliday had seen better days.

And once again, he's done everything he can to dispel that notion. In the four weeks before last night's 0-for-3 against Boston, he batted .307/.381/.653 with seven home runs, going yard more times in those 21 games than he did in the previous 87. The power surge has coincided with an increased strikeout rate for Holliday, who whiffed 21 times over that stretch (one per game) as opposed to 54 times prior to that (.62 per game). Holliday may be consciously trying to sacrifice contact for power, but if that's the case it hasn't negatively affected his average. Or it could merely be that July has traditionally been his best home run month.

Whatever the reason, Holliday's swinging the bat well and it's had a positive impact on St. Louis, which went 12-9 during his hot streak. Currently one game behind the first-place Brewers in the NL Central, the Cards could certainly use a big finishing kick from Holliday like the one he provided last year. Though he leads the team in doubles and RBI and ranks tied for second with Matt Adams in home runs, his .792 OPS could stand to jump another 50 or 60 points between now and the end of the season, if not more. 

At least Mike Matheny needn't worry about his number three hitter. Holliday, who's done nothing but hit for the past decade-plus, is hitting now, so there's really no reason to doubt him. He's dug himself out of a big hole before, and here in 2014 he appears to be doing it again.

McCutchen MVP No More

With McCutchen and Tulowitzki sidelined, the NL MVP is Puig's for the taking

For most of the year it looked like Troy Tulowitzki was going to walk away with NL MVP honors on the strength of his terrific hitting and superlative defense at shortstop. Then he got hurt, as he always does, and his annual trip to the DL has cost him almost three weeks and counting. The injury, combined with his team's last place standing, knocks him off the top of the MVP pyramid. Barring a repeat of his September 2010 performance (15 homers, 40 RBI) he ain't winning.

The next best candidate appeared to be last year's MVP, Andrew McCutchen, but now it seems safe to say that he won’t be the MVP again in 2014. With a fractured rib shelving him for 3-4 weeks and possibly into September, McCutchen’s hopes of repeating were effectively dashed. So with the door wide open, who’s next in line?

Clayton Kershaw’s now the odds-on favorite, and with the kind of season he's having there's a pretty good chance he pulls a Justin Verlander by copping both the Cy Young and MVP awards. (Quick aside, if those ill-fated 2011 Red Sox roll through September the way they did the rest of that season, Jacoby Ellsbury probably wins that MVP. If Boston had won 100 games while playing in baseball’s toughest division, like they were on pace to do, there's no way the MVP goes to a pitcher whose team could have won its division with an 81-81 record. And if Verlander wins 19 games instead of 24, it's not even a discussion).

But Kershaw's missed more than month and that has to be a big strike against him. Obviously if he continues to dominate down the stretch he’ll have a great case, one worth overlooking the lost time. That said, voters have always been more inclined to favor position players rather than pitchers, who already have a hard enough time as it is winning the MVP when they’re healthy. You might recall that before Verlander, a starting pitcher hadn't been named MVP since Roger Clemens in 1986. Position players can afford to miss time and still earn the hardware (see Mickey Mantle in 1962 or Josh Hamilton in 2010), but pitchers, because they pitch so infrequently, aren't granted that same latitude. I can’t remember the last time a starting pitcher missed a good chunk of time and went on to win the MVP, which leads me to believe Kershaw will have a difficult time pulling it off. But if he goes off an another scoreless innings streak, all bets are off.

I also think that in today’s offense-challenged climate, a big bat is more valuable that a good arm. It’s elite hitting, not starting pitching, that’s in short supply, so a guy who can hit .300 with good power and gets on base is especially valuable. I think if you take away Kershaw and replace him with an average pitcher, then Zack Greinke’s the ace (of a staff with Hyun-jin Ryu, Josh Beckett, and Dan Haren) and the Dodgers are still okay.  Maybe they don't win the division, but they're still a playoff team. Remove Yasiel Puig from LA's lineup, however, and I’m not convinced they score enough runs to make their pitching stand up, not with injuries to Carl Crawford and Hanley Ramirez and poor seasons from A.J. Ellis, Andre Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez, and Matt Kemp (who's only been good recently).

So this is a long-winder, roundabout way of saying that the best remaining MVP candidate is Puig, who’s having a Mike Trout-lite season, so to speak. His .316/.400/.540 batting line is huge, especially for someone who plays half his games in Dodger Stadium (which is reflected by his 165 OPS+). With 4.0 bWAR, Puig has been his team's best position player by far, propping up a star-studded lineup that's under-performed its talent level. And while he doesn't lead the league in anything, he's in the top 10 for almost everything and should only climb higher with Tulo and 'Cutch on the mend.

Puig would boost his chances significantly by making up the distance between him and those two. Time is on his side and ripe for him to raise his stock. But he must keep hitting. He needs to rediscover the power stroke that has all but abandoned him since late May (two homers and 16 RBI in his last 56 games). He has to finish strong.

Because if he doesn't, then it's going to be that much easier to choose Kershaw.