Votto Returns

With Votto back in the heart of the order, the Reds should keep on rolling

Joey Votto, who hadn't played since July 15th after shredding his meniscus, returned to action in yesterday's game against the Philadelphia Phillies.  While Cincinatti went on to lose, 6-2, their All-Star first baseman didn't look rusty at all.  In his first at-bat he slapped an opposite field single off two-time Cy Young award winner Roy Halladay.  Votto finished the game 2-for-3 with a walk, bumping his season batting line to a Ted Williams-esque .346/.468/.605.

Despite losing the 2010 NL MVP and best hitter in baseball for nearly two months, the red-hot Reds still managed to go 33-16 in his absence as they ran away with the NL Central.  Apparently, they didn't miss him too much.  The lineup, led by Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, Ryan Ludwick, and Todd Frazier, continued to churn out runs, averaging nearly five per game in August while posting a collective .777 OPS--their best of any month this season.  The starting rotation of Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, and Homer Bailey has remained durable and effective.  Altogether, they've started every game this season except for one, a Todd Redmond spot-start at the back end of an August 18th doubleheader.  And the bullpen, perhaps the best in baseball mainly because of Aroldis Chapman's dominance, has been untouchable


So with a healthy Votto back in the heart of their order, the rich have gotten richer.  Dusty Baker's team just might be the best in the Senior Circuit.  The Nats are right there too, just as balanced and, more importantly, blessed with superior starting pitching.  Stephen Strasburg's impending shutdown diminishes that advantage somewhat, but Washington still has plenty of depth with Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Edwin Jackson, and Ross Detwiler.  Once the playoffs roll around and rotations are shortened, that quartet should be enough to get them through the postseason. Regardless of which team is better, these two squads appear to be on a playoffs collision course. I believe Washington will prevail because they're winning the arms race and have the lineup and bullpen to match Cincinatti.

But as we've seen time and time again in postseasons past, anything can happen.

Why the Yankees Won't Collapse

Much has been made of the Yankees summer swoon, and rightly so. After all, double digit divisional leads don't typically evaporate in the span of six weeks, but that's exactly what has happened here in the second half.  Starting with a demoralizing four game sweep in Oakland in which all four Yankee defeats were of the one-run variety, the team in pinstripes has gone 20-25 (.444).  They have been even worse lately; since August 20th the Yanks are 5-9, allowing the charging Baltimore Orioles to catch them in the standings on Tuesday night, marking the first time since June 11th that Joe Girardi's team did not have sole possession of first place.  New York avoided getting swept at the Trop by salvaging a 6-4 win over the Rays in the series finale yesterday.  Meanwhile to the North, Toronto beat the O's 6-4, dropping Baltimore a game behind New York in the standings.

But that's subject to change by the end of the evening.  With the Yankees in town for a four game set at Camden Yards starting tonight, the birds have an opportunity to vault back into first place.  They'll send first half ace Jason Hammel (8-6, 3.54 ERA) to the hill in his first start since having knee surgery on July 16th.  The visitors will counter with 25 year-old rookie David Phelps (3-4, 3.13 ERA) in a matchup that seems to favor Baltimore, at least on paper.

But even if the Bronx Bombers lose again tonight, I think they're going to be fine for the rest of September. They're not going to suffer an epic meltdown like the one their Boston rivals endured last season.  Here's why:

Their schedule isn't that difficult
They get two precious off days to recuperate, and while 14 of their remaining 26 games are on the road, they don't have to do much traveling.  Only three of those games (Minnesota 9/24-9/26) will be played in a different time zone, which means no red-eye cross country flights to the West Coast. Their last ten games of the season--against the Twins, Blue Jays, and Red Sox--all qualify as favorable matchups.  Then again, the Red Sox had a soft schedule last September, too, and all those games against the Orioles did them no favors.  When a team is cold, it's cold, regardless of who is challenging them on the field.  For what it's worth, entering play today the Yanks have an 85.2 percent chance of making the playoffs with a 59.8 percent chance of winning the AL East (according to coolstandings.com).  By comparison, the site gives Baltimore 47.3 percent odds of advancing into the postseason and just a 17.2 percent chance of capturing the division flag.  The third place Rays, sitting one and a half games back of the Orioles, are viewed as the greater threat.

They're getting healthier
Injuries have played a big part in New York's second half slump, but with several key players back in action the Yankees will once again be a full fighting force.  Alex Rodriguez has returned from a six week stint on the Disabled List with a fractured hand (courtesy of Felix Hernandez) and Mark Teixeira, who's been sidelined with a grade 1 calf strain for the past ten days, could come back as soon as tomorrow.  While both players have declined in recent years, they're still above average hitters and proven run producers.   Teixeira's 81 RBI lead the team, and with a big September he could clear the 30 homer/100 RBI benchmarks for the ninth consecutive season (he needs seven and 19, respectively).  Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson have been dinged up lately, which explains their recent slumps, but neither one figures to miss any time.  C.C. Sabathia hasn't skipped a beat since spending time on the DL last month, and the rotation will welcome back Andy Pettitte and Ivan Nova in the coming weeks.

The Orioles will fade
I know I sound like a broken record at this point, but it's going to happen, possibly as soon as this weekend.  Their luck will run out sooner or later, and when it does, kiss first place good-bye.  They have six more games with the Red Sox, and I'm hoping Boston can spoil their season the way they spoiled ours.  With a meaningless final month of baseball sitting in front of them, that's all Red Sox Nation really has to root for; the Revenge Sox, with Pedro Ciriaco playing the part of Robert Andino.

They're the Yankees
They're winning machines.  Going back to Don Mattingly's final season in 1995, this franchise has made the postseason every year except one (2008).  This a veteran team comprised of proven winners with plenty of big game experience under their belts.  The clubhouse is loaded with leaders (Pettitte, Derek Jeter, even A-Rod) who have all been there before and don't crack under pressure.  This team has been taking care of business for nearly a century now, and always seems to rise to the occasion.  They don't fold, and they won't. Because if they choke, it will be over Jeter's dead body.

Tables Turned on Bobby V.

 

How does it feel, Bobby Valentine, to have your effort unfairly criticized?

Another day, another loss, and more controversy in Red Sox Nation.

But what else is new?

Back in April Bobby Valentine questioned the dedication of Kevin Youkilis, one of the sport's most intense players with a reputation of wearing his heart on his sleeve, giving 110 percent all the time and treating every at-bat like it's life or death. 

"I don't think he's as physically or emotionally into the game as he has been in the past, for some reason," Valentine said of his third baseman, who at the time was mired in an early season slump.  Boy, that vote of confidence from the skipper must have felt swell.

We all know how that turned out.  Dustin Pedroia fired back, and Valentine apologized.  But Youkilis never forgave his manager for making those remarks, and their hostile relationship (combined with the emergence of rookie Will Middlebrooks) led Boston GM Ben Cherington to dump Youk on the White Sox for pennies on the dollar in late June.  The three time All-Star has since rescued his season, providing several clutch hits for first place Chicago.  Meanwhile, back in Boston, the Red Sox are a dozen games below .500 as they put the finishing touches on what will be their worst season in recent memory.

So today, when WEEI radio host Glenn Ordway asked Valentine if he had "checked out," Bobby V. nearly blew his stack. He was insulted that Ordway even had the nerve to ask him that.  Valentine, like Youkilis, is a fiery, passionate and proud baseball man who cares deeply about his job and works incredibly hard at it.  Say what you want about both men, but you can not question their effort.

After all, it's not Valentine's fault the team stinks (there's a long list of culprits headed by Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Daniel Bard, among others).  He deserves better.  But so did Youkilis, and that's why I don't feel an ounce of sympathy for the field general.  He got a dose of his own medicine, and frankly it's too damn bad that he doesn't like the taste. 

What goes around, comes around Bobby Valentine.  Hopefully you learned your lesson and remember to keep your big mouth shut from now on.

Uggla's Benching Unwarranted

The sight of Uggla swinging and missing has become all too familiar in 2012  (SBNation)

Dan Uggla is hitting .208, his power is down, and he's striking out in over one-third of his at-bats.  He's 32 years old, struggling to bat his weight and enduring the worst year of his career by far.

But he does not deserve to ride the pine while Atlanta makes a push for the playoffs.

Over the weekend, Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez finally benched Uggla, a move some would call merciful given the latter's horrific summer swoon.  It goes without saying that the keystone slugger has been a massive disappointment this year.  The numbers--almost all of which will represent career lows--speak for themselves.  It's not quite the second coming of Adam Dunn's 2011, but it's in the same league as far as precipitous drop-offs are concerned. Over the past three months, Uggla's statistics are downright ugly, even worse than his brutal first half slump last season.  He's batted a pathetic .152/.304/.276 with 90 strikeouts in 243 at-bats and just three multi-hit performances.  His once steady power stroke disappeared, as he's accumulated only seven home runs and 27 RBI.  Because all of Uggla's value is tied up in his offense--he rates as a subpar defender and has no speed to speak of--when he's not hitting, he's not contributing.  The Wild Card leading Braves cannot afford such a black hole in their lineup as they try to avoid another September collapse with four weeks of pressure-packed baseball left to play.

But here's the thing; Uggla hasn't been that bad, especially relative to his peers at the position.  Among NL second baseman, Uggla ranks first in home runs (17), second in runs scored (72) behind Brandon Phillips, and third in RBI (64) after Phillips and Neil Walker.  His 80 walks pace the Senior Circuit, fueling a respectable .339 OBP.  And while his power figures have plummeted, his .164 ISO is still great for a middle infielder.  His 42.4 extra-base hit percentage (xbh/hits) is a near match with his career 43.3 percent mark, so although he had fewer hits he was still getting a good bang for his buck.  Even his 92 OPS+ and 96 wRC+ how his offensive production has been much closer to average than one would initially think.

But wait, there's more.  Enhanced by improved defense, Uggla's 1.7 bWAR indicate that he's played well enough to earn an everyday spot (remember that the average big league starter should record at least two bWAR over the course of a full season) and is actually right in line with his performance in 2007 (1.6), 2009 (1.8), and 2011 (1.6 again).  And while it seems like forever ago, Uggla enjoyed a strong start to the season.  Through the first week in June he had compiled a .276/.384/.492 batting line and was on pace to eclipse 30 home runs and reach the century mark in RBI, runs scored and walks.  A month later, he was the National League's starting second baseman at the All-Star Game in Kansas City, even though his triple slash stats had plunged to .221/.351/.395 and would only continue to deteriorate throughout the summer.

But lately Uggla had started to show some signs of life at the plate.  He'd notched hits in five consecutive games and swatted a pair of home runs, giving him five for the month of August along with 15 RBI, numbers that project to a 30-90 pace over the course of an entire season..  After sticking with him for that long, it would have made sense for Gonzalez to ride out the storm a little longer and see if his struggling second baseman was on the verge of a late season tear, perhaps an abbreviated version of his monster second half from 2011.  At this point, what do you have to lose?  With Martin Prado moving from left field to second, you can't tell me that a platoon of Jose Constanza and Reed Johnson in left is going to outproduce Uggla from this point forward.  I'd rather take my chances with the three time All-Star with five straight 30 homer seasons everyday of the week, and twice on Sundays.

Especially since he's making $13 million this year, and each of the next three, for that matter.

Red Sox Sliding

Boy, when Red Sox General Manager Ben Cherington conceded his team was getting "hard to watch," he wasn't kidding.

The slumping Sox have dropped a season worst seven games in a row--all on the road--falling to 62-74 on the season. It's been an ugly West Coast swing, to say the least.  First the Angels swept them aside, and then the surging A's followed suit with a lopsided three game sweep in which they bludgeoned the Bosox 33-5.  Last night in Seattle, Jason Vargas shut down Boston's ice cold bats and outdueled Clay Buchholz.  During this latest losing streak opponents have outscored them by 41 runs during that stretch, an average of nearly six runs per game.  Six! Granted, that number is somewhat inflated by the 20-2 beatdown they suffered in Oakland last Friday night, but in only one game was the margin of defeat less than three runs.  The simple explanation is that the pitching and hitting are struggling simultaneously.  It's going to be tough to win baseball games when when your pitchers get lit up for 8.3 runs per game, and by the same token is just as difficult when the slumbering offense produces just 2.3 runs per game.

It's been a hard fall from the top for a team that looked like World Series favorites as recently as last September.  Trades and injuries have reduced them to a glorified AAA ballclub.  It was safe to assume that the team would only get worse after trading away Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, but I don't think anybody expected it to get this bad.  After all, their lineup still features elite top of the order talent in Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia.  The rotation still has an effective lefty-righty punch with Jon Lester and Buchholz anchoring the staff.  And don't forget that Felix Doubront and 2009 AL Rookie of the Year Andrew Bailey recently returned from injuries.  Unlike, say, the Houston Astros, this roster hasn't been totally gutted.  It has an intact core with good players capable of winning ballgames.

Still, the fact remains that this club have been brutal for more than a month now.  Since the July 31st trading deadline, Boston's gone 9-23 (.281 winning percentage), a streak of futility reminiscent of their infamous 7-20 September swoon one year ago.  Over that span the Sox have strung together back-to-back wins just twice and have just one series win (against the Royals) in their past nine sets.

Tough to watch, indeed.  Some would say almost torturous.

Tonight Lester (8-11, 5.01 ERA) looks to stop the bleeding against Blake Beavan (9-8, 4.95 ERA).  Boston's struggling southpaw has finally started to pitch like the ace he's supposed to be.  In August he averaged more than seven innings per start, compiled a 3.59 ERA and permitted just two home runs.  The light-hitting Mariners, who rank dead last in the American League in numerous offensive categories such as runs, hits, batting average, OBP, SLG, OPS, and total bases, shouldn't pose much of a threat.  Boston's bats should come alive against Beavan, and I'm confident Lester will go out and get the job done.