Pujols, Teixeira Turning Back the Clock

Teixeira takes another pitcher deep (NY Times)

One of the best sluggers in the American League this year is 35 year-old first baseman who has been hobbled by injuries in recent seasons, injuries that have cut into his into playing time, hampered his power, and left many to wonder just how effective he could be going forward. Recently his giant contract has been deemed among the worst in baseball, but this year he's been worth every penny. He's re-asserted himself as a middle of the order force on a contending team, socking home runs and driving in runs with regularity. Last month he was an All-Star for the first time in years, and now he's adding to his MVP case as the stretch run looms.

I'm talking about Mark Teixeira. I am also talking about Albert Pujols.

Both players, you see, are enjoying unexpected resurgences at the plate. What's funny is that they're going about it different ways. Pujols is being more aggressive than ever before, continuing a trend of declining walk rates since 2009. This is common in older hitters, who start their swing earlier to counteract their diminishing bat speed. He's also tinkered with his batting stance, adjusting his leg kick and load position. His is a classic case of an older player taking on the role of mad scientist, feverishly trying anything and everything in the hopes of recapturing his old glory.

Teixeira, on the other hand, wanted to get back to doing what he's always done: take walks and hit the ball a long way. Rather than experiment with a new approach, he simply sought to return to his old one. His only change was what he put on his plate, which no longer includes sugar and gluten (how somebody can swear off one, let alone both, is incomprehensible to me). Contrary to Pujols, Tex became even more patient. Granted, he's always been a disciplined hitter, but it's noteworthy that his walk rate hasn't been this high since 2010. Given how far the league walk rate has fallen since then, that's really quite impressive.

Once among the best pure hitters in the game, they're essentially all-or-nothing sluggers at this point. Their averages, which used to top .300 with regularity, have settled into the .250s. Pujols is striking out more than at any point since his rookie season, and Teixeira's taken plenty of whiffs, too.

It's the return of their power, however, that's made them elite offensive performers again. Both are sitting on 30 home runs, a benchmark neither has surpassed since 2011 (Pujols hit 30 on the nose in 2012--his first year with the Angels). They're tied for fifth-most in the American League, four behind ML-leader Nelson Cruz. Pujols is sporting his best Isolated Power since 2010, while Teixeira is putting up the best ISO of his career. Pujols is in the league's top-10 for total bases, whereas Tex is in the top-10 for slugging percentage and extra base hits.

Pujols hasn't hit this well since his Cardinals days (ESPN)

Their coinciding comebacks is just the latest parallel in their exceptional careers, which have mirrored each other at every turn. Both were born in 1980, came up in the early 2000s, and raked from the start. They were extremely durable. They hit for good power and high averages. They became multi-Gold Glove winning first basemen.

Both were absolute monsters through around 2009 or so, then they signed huge contracts with new teams and almost immediately began going downhill. Part of it was age, part of it was injuries, and part of it was the league-wide decline in offense that's been happening since these guys turned 30. They both had some years where they got off to absolutely terrible starts, and as you get older those slumps last longer and it becomes harder and harder to come back from them.

They both bottomed out in 2013, when injuries limited Pujols to 99 games and Teixeira to all of 15. They bounced back some in 2014, but nowhere near their pre-injury levels. As they crept into their mid-30s and injuries kept piling up, their careers seemed to be heading south.

Then, just when everyone had written them off, they came roaring back. Fully healthy for the first time in years, they've been able to inflict some serious damage on AL pitching this summer. It was a sight to see both at the Midsummer Classic, something neither had been a part of in half a decade. They looked like dinosaurs alongside National League representatives Paul Goldschmidt and Anthony Rizzo, both of whom are nearly a decade younger.

But every All-Star Game is like that, a bizarre juxtaposition of fading stars and bright up-and-comers. Pujols and Teixeira might not have looked like they belonged, but their numbers said otherwise.

A-Rod's Renaissance

A-Rod may be old, but he's still hitting like the A-Rod of old (FNC Static)

Monday was Alex Rodriguez's 40th birthday, and of course he made the most of it.

Back in Texas, where he wowed Rangers fans with three of the best seasons a shortstop has ever had, Rodriguez added another feel-good chapter to his storybook comeback by slamming his 24th home run of the year and 678th of his career. The big fly was classic A-Rod--a heat-seeking missile launched the other way with the flick of his wrists. It's the kind of opposite field shot you see all the time when Rodriguez's swing is right, and it's become abundantly clear that his swing is in top form.

Rodriguez has had better numbers to be sure--take another look at those Texas years--but he's never enjoyed a campaign quite like this one. Nobody has, because nobody was ever suspended for an entire season and then returned to baseball on the cusp of 40.

As such, no one knew what to expect of Rodriguez this year, not even Rodriguez himself. It's safe to say nobody expected much. The odds were stacked against him, especially given that his last few years before the suspension were marked by injury woes and declining performance. Once one of the surest things in the game, A-Rod's future was overwhelmingly uncertain. How would his body hold up? Did he still have the reflexes and hand-eye co-ordination to hit major league pitching? Guys aren't supposed to miss a year in their late 30s and come back like nothing happened.

Except Rodriguez has. And while he hasn't been better than ever, he's almost as good as he used to be, something not even the most optimistic Yankee fans could have foreseen. Nobody in their wildest dreams would have believed that Rodriguez would return to being the middle of the order force he was during his prime, and yet that's exactly what he's done.

It would have been natural for A-Rod to start slow, given that he hadn't played major league baseball in more than a year, but he never displayed even a hint of rust. He reached base twice in his first game back, went yard in his third game, notched a pair of hits in his fourth game, and drove in four runs in game number six. Rodriguez hit the ground running, and he hasn't looked back.

And rather than wear down during the heat of the summer, as any slugger approaching 40 might, he's only gotten hotter with the weather. Rodriguez has nine home runs, 14 RBI, and a .726 slugging percentage since the Fourth of July. Three of those blasts came Saturday in Minnesota, when Rodriguez turned back the clock with his fifth career three-homer game (and first since 2010).

For an encore, Rodriguez smacked another home run on his birthday, making him just the fourth player ever to homer as a teenager and a 40 year-old (joining the unlikely trio of Ty Cobb, Rusty Staub, and former teammate Gary Sheffield). It was also his sixth birthday bomb--a new MLB record and a fitting milestone for his milestone birthday.

What may be even more surprising than A-Rod's resurgence on the field is the transformation of his perception off it.

Until a few months ago, Rodriguez was probably the most reviled athlete in sports. He was so hated that his own ballclub objected to his early spring training arrival. Yes, seriously. In ballparks across America, he was subjected to the worst booing since Barry Bonds made his run at Hank Aaron's home run record. You probably could have counted the number of Rodriguez supporters on one hand.

Now, well, there were legitimate objections to A-Rod being left off the All-Star Game roster. His teammates have welcomed him back with open arms, and Yankee fans have been quick to forgive. He still gets booed wherever he goes, but the jeers aren't fueled with the same level of vitrol. Fans appear to be booing him out of instinct more than anything else, because they always have and always will, and because they know that's what they're supposed to do (after all, the guy's a caught cheater! And a liar!).

After more than two decades in the big leagues, Rodriguez has finally discovered how to stay out of his own way, not to mention the tabloids (he did have 10 years to learn from the master--Derek Jeter). Thanks to wisdom, maturity, and an improved sense of self-awareness, his season has been shockingly devoid of controversy. He's handled everything with grace and poise; the transition to full-time DH (or: losing his starting job to Chase Headley), the incident involving his 3,000th hit, and the Yankees' refusal to honor his $6 million contract incentive for passing Willie Mays on the all-time home run list. Each time he bit his tongue, refusing to let himself become a distraction.

He's also been a genuinely good guy, giving his batting gloves to kids in Fenway Park, of all places, after homering twice there earlier this month. Smooth move, A-Rod.

Rodriguez should be a pro at this PR stuff by now. His career has been a constant uphill battle to win back fans and media ever since he signed that first fat contract with Texas. The last 15 years have felt like one long apology tour for his various transgressions, of which there are now too many to count. The few times A-Rod has been tolerable during that span have been whenever he's simply shut up and let his bat do the talking.

Right now, his bat is talking pretty loud. Entering play today he has 24 homers, 60 RBI, and a .279/.379/.545 batting line, good for his best league and park-adjusted OPS since his most recent MVP season in 2007. Rodriguez can't run (only one stolen base) or field (he's played just six games in the field) like he used to, but he can still mash.

That's the one thing Rodriguez has always been able to do, no matter how much of a self-created hurricane is howling around him. Through all the scandals, controversies, and cringe-worthy mistakes, Rodriguez has always raked. Even the last few years, with injuries severely cutting into his playing time and limiting his production, he was still an above average hitter.

This year he's been way, way above average, and that has come as a major surprise. It seemed much more likely that he'd be a broken down shell of his former self like Jeter was last year. Instead, he's been an MVP candidate and one of the main reasons why New York currently leads the AL East.

Redemption. Resurrection. Resurgence. Whatever alliteration you want to use to describe Rodriguez's comeback, it can't possibly do him justice. What he's doing is unprecedented, but he's been doing unprecedented things for 20 years now. Let's appreciate this one for a change.

2015 Comeback Candidates (NL)

Uggla is hoping to win a job with the Nationals this year (Chat Sports)

The following National Leaguers should do better in 2015 than they did a year ago.

C Wilin Rosario
After cranking 49 home runs and posting an .820 OPS (107 OPS+) between 2012 and 2013 combined, a couple of DL stints limited the Rockies backstop to just 13 home runs and a .739 OPS (93 OPS+) last year. Health permitting, he'll hit much better in his age-26 season.

1B Mark Trumbo
Trumbo's first season in Arizona was a disappointment, as he missed nearly half the season with a stress fracture in his left foot and was worth 1.1 wins below replacement. Seeing as how he averaged 2.6 bWAR from 2011-2013, when he was mostly healthy, and blasted 95 home runs. The 29 year-old slugger deserves a mulligan, unless the Diamondbacks decide to trade him.

2B Dan Uggla
Uggla's career went south in a hurry, from 2012 All-Star to spring training invite with the Washington Nationals. Many pointed to his age as the reason for his dramatic decline, but few were aware that Uggla was playing through an undiagnosed concussion last year, when he had a .442 OPS in 52 games. The condition prevented him from picking up the ball and undoubtedly contributed to his horrendous batting figures. The soon-to-be 35 year-old is still a longshot to make the big club with Anthony Rendon entrenched at the keystone, but the three-time All-Star is suddenly much more intriguing now that he can actually see what he's trying to hit.

3B David Wright
Wright was a mess last year, playing through a shoulder contusion that hampered his power and resulted in what was the worst season of his career by far. The seven-time All-Star should do better than the .698 OPS he managed last year, especially given his proven ability to bounce back from previous down years (2009 and 2011).

SS Jean Segura
The 2013 All-Star stunk last year, hitting just five home runs to go along with his lowly .246/.289/.326 batting line. Hit well down the stretch (.784 OPS after September 2nd), which gives me hope that he'll have more success in his age-25 season. I don't think he's as good as his 2013 numbers suggest, but I'm willing to bet he's better than last year's numbers say he was.

Gonzalez was both hurt and ineffective in 2014 (Rox Walk Off)

OF Bryce Harper
Injuries prevented Harper from being the dynamic player he was in his first two big league campaigns, limiting him to just 100 games, four stolen base attempts, and 13 home runs. Still just 22, Harper has plenty of room to grow, and this could be the year he finally makes the leap to superstardom.

OF Carlos Gonzalez
Gonzalez missed a ton of time last year, needing two separate surgeries on his index finger and left knee. No wonder he batted a meager .238/.292/.431 (89) OPS+ when he did play. Missing time is nothing new to CarGo, who's never played more than 145 games in any season, but even last year's paltry total of 70 was a new career low for him. Expect the 29 year-old former batting champ to be on the field more regularly and play better this year.

OF Jay Bruce
Bruce was brutal last year, bottoming out at ..217/.281/.373 (84 OPS+). He struggled mightily after returning from knee surgery in late May, but says he feels great and should be good to go for 2015. When healthy, Bruce is one of the best right fielders and power hitters in the game, and a big rebound from him will go a long way towards helping Cincinnati contend in the loaded NL Central.

U Ryan Braun
The last two seasons have been well below Braun's standards, but the 31 year-old is still young enough to have another big season or two left in him. The last two years combined he's had 28 homers, 119 RBI, and 15 steals, numbers I see as a good baseline for his 2015 production.

San Francisco could use Cain to get back on track (StanGraphs)

SP Cliff Lee
Lee made just 13 starts last year due to strains in his throwing arm that required two separate trips to the 60 day DL, but was still effective when healthy. The few times Lee was able to pitch, he was the same old guy, putting up a 2.96 FIP and striking out six batters for every one he walked. He's getting up there in years (turns 37 in August), but still appears to have plenty left in the tank.

SP Matt Harvey
Harvey never threw a pitch in 2014 because he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. He was filthy prior to the injury, and the Mets hope he's still filthy when he comes back at age 26.

SP Jose Fernandez
The 2013 NL Rookie of the Year was off to a sizzling start before Tommy John surgery cut his sophomore season short. Miami's hoping their 22 year-old budding ace doesn't skip a beat in his first post-surgery season.

SP Brandon McCarthy
McCarthy pitched 200 innings for the first time last year but wasn't very good, going 10-15 with a 4.05 ERA splitting time between Arizona and New York (Yankees). Lucky for him, he's in the perfect place to rejuvenate his career: Dodger Stadium.'

SP Matt Cain
Cain failed to complete 180 innings for the first time since 2005, making just 15 mediocre starts and missing the entire second half after undergoing elbow surgery to remove bone chips. A clean elbow in his throwing arm should do wonders for Cain, one of the National League's better starting pitchers before last year (an NL version of James Shields, really). The Giants need him to return to form if they want to repeat as World Champions in 2015.

RP Jason Grilli
The 2013 All-Star closer will try to regain his mojo with Atlanta after a down 2014 in which he spent time on the DL, lost his closer's job in Pittsburgh to Mark Melancon, and was traded to the Angels (where he was a setup man in a shaky closer situation). The Braves are going to be bad after trading away their two best positon players--Jason Heyward and Justin Upton--but hopefully Grilli won't be.

MLB Midseason Awards

The Rockies have faded since their hot start, but Tulowitzki hsn't

With most teams at or about to reach the midway point in their seasons, it's time to hand out some midseason hardware.

AL MVP Mike Trout
Trout's been, by a nose, baseball's most valuable player to date, with his 5.1 bWAR barely edging out Troy Tulowitzki's 5.0. Trout's power numbers might not be as shiny as those of Nelson Cruz or Edwin Encarnacion, but as an all-around player no one's been better. All the 22 year-old center fielder has done is bat .314/.407/.610, good for the highest OPS and OPS+ in the American League. He's created the most runs of any American Leaguer, among whom only Jose Bautista has reached base more often. He's also a perfect 10-for-10 in stolen base attempts. And the Angels are doing well this year, so none of that "his team stinks" crap can hold any water. This is the year Trout will finally win his first MVP award, when it should be his third.

NL MVP Troy Tulowitzki
This one's a no-brainer. Tulo leads the major league in all three slash stats as well as runs scored. Throw in his strong power numbers and terrific defense at short, and he's been the best player in the National League this year hands-down. Health has been the only thing stopping the Rockies shortstop from seriously contending for the award in years past, so if he can hold up in the second half he should walk away with his first MVP trophy.

AL Cy Young: Masahiro Tanaka
Recent blunder to Mike Napoli notwithstanding, Tanaka's been absolutely dynamite in the first half. His 2.10 ERA, 190 ERA+ and 4.4 bWAR are all tops among American League pitchers, and his 11 wins and three complete games lead both leagues. He's also sporting a 0.95 WHIP to go with his ridiculous 127/18 K/BB ratio. New York paid a boatload for him, but he's been worth every penny, keeping the otherwise mediocre Yankees afloat in the AL East.

NL Cy Young: Johnny Cueto
I'm not convinced Cueto will win the award come November based on how well Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright have pitched, but for now at least the award is his to lose. Cincinnati's ace pitched like Pedro Martinez in the first half, compiling baseball's best WHIP, ERA, ERA+, H/9, and most complete games. Opponents are batting just .171/.232/.272 off him, which of course is insane, especially for someone who pitches half his games in a hitting-friendly venue. Cueto's always had top-shelf talent when healthy, and healthy he has been this year, leading the National League in starts and innings pitched. That combination of durability and dominance has elevated him into the same stratosphere as Kershaw, Tanaka, and Felix Hernandez, at least temporarily.

AL Rookie of the Year: Masahiro Tanaka
Want more stats reflecting Tanaka's greatness? Of course you do! Tanaka has not yet allowed more than three earned runs in any of his 16 starts, something he's only done four times. He's thrown 68 percent of his pitches for strikes. He's already had five starts with 10 or more strikeouts. His shortest outing was six innings. He's averaging nearly 10 K's per 9 innings, and his K/BB ratio is north of seven. And last but not least, he's been the third most valuable player in the American League to date, behind only Trout and Josh Donaldson.

NL Rookie of the Year: Chris Owings
Gregory Polanco is infinitely more talented and will probably walk away with this award in the fall, but with just three weeks of big league experience under his belt still has a long way to go. Arizona's 22 year-old shortstop hasn't gotten much press playing for a last-place team, but he's been one of the few bright spots on the Diamondbacks this year. Hitting .277/.313/.458 with solid power (26 extra base hits, .181 ISO) and speed (seven steals without a caught stealing), Owens isn't flashy but is nevertheless a solidly above average shortstop who brings good defense to the table as well. Unfortunately he just landed on the DL with a shoulder strain, but he should return after the All-Star Break. Perhaps the time off will help prevent him from hitting the rookie wall that fellow shortstop Xander Bogaerts seems to be crashing into.

AL Comeback Player of the Year: Mark Teixeira
If a Yankee wins the AL Comeback Player of the Year award, it ought to be Tex, not Derek Jeter. After wrist injuries limited him to just 15 games last year, Teixeira appeared to be a longshot to regain his power stroke and status as one of the game's best slugging first basemen. Since spending time on the Disabled List in April with a strained hamstring, though, he's hit like the Teixeira of old (and by old I mean the 2010-2012 version) with 15 home runs, 39 RBI and an .844 OPS in 56 games. He's been a constant source of offense over the last two months, providing power and stability in the middle of an order that's floundering in many respects due to the struggles of Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, and Alfonso Soriano. If Teixiera heats up in the second half, as he usually does, then he'll win this thing running away. If he gets hurt again, look for Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and Melky Cabrera to step in.

NL Comeback Player of the Year: Casey McGehee
After not playing in Japan last year, McGehee's been a revelation for Miami in 2014. The 31 year-old' has played 81 of the Marlins 83 games and provided a nice offensive boost at the hot corner, batting a career-high .309 with 19 doubles and 48 RBI. He's also maintained a robust .376 OBP, which makes up for his dismal power (one homer and .076 ISO) and mediocre defense. At a bargain bin price of $1.1 million, that's not bad at all.

AL Team of the First Half: Oakland A's
Before last night's loss to the Tigers, the A's were on pace to win 102 games. 102! They have the best record and best run-differential (far and away) in baseball. Their furious start has me wondering: could this be the year that a Billy Beane team finally survives the postseason crapshoot and wins it all?

NL Team of the First Half: Milwaukee Brewers
An incredibly deep offense and solid pitching makes them this year's version of the 2013 Boston Red Sox. Pretty much everyone in that lineup can hit, and they have just enough pitching with Kyle Lohse, Wily Peralta, and Yovani Gallardo exceeding expectations. It also helps that Francisco Rodriguez is pitching like it's 2008 again.

All stats through 6/30

Cruz Crushing

Cruz has been one of 2014's biggest first half surprises (MLB.com)

When the Baltimore Orioles signed Nelson Cruz to a one-year, $8 million deal during spring training, nobody expected him to emerge as the team's best player. Not on a roster loaded with younger, in-their-prime standouts such as Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and Manny Machado. Cruz appeared to be a player in decline, and there were serious doubts about what he'd be able to give the Orioles. He was, after all, about to turn 34, coming off a 50-game ban for PED use, and leaving a hitter's paradise in Arlington behind. Why do you think so many teams passed on him?

Well, Cruz quickly erased those doubts by homering in the first two games of the season and hasn't stopped hitting since. He slumped briefly at the beginning of June, but seems to have turned it around with three home runs and nine RBI in his past ten games, including a game-tying grand slam on Wednesday night that sparked the Orioles to an extra-inning victory.

Cruz now leads the major leagues in home runs (with 24) and RBI (64), on pace for 49 and 131, respectively. Even if he falls well short of those totals, he'll still blow his career highs (33 and 90) out of the water. He might as well go ahead and take the rest of the year off, because he's already earned his pay and then some. He's already been hailed as the best bargain of the offseason, and rightly so.

It's tempting to say Cruz can't and won't keep this up, that he'll cool off in the second half like so many sluggers with big first halves tend to do. But it's important to remember that he was hitting well last year before baseball suspended him for the rest of the season. Dating back to the start of last year, a span of 185 game for Cruz (essentially seven months of baseball), he's swatted 51 home runs, driven in 140 and slugged .541. That's a fairly large sample size, and Cruz was successful before that, too.

Could Cruz be juicing again? Given his history, it's not out of the question. It's rare to see players have career years at 33/34, but Cruz was a late-bloomer to begin with. He didn't play his first full season until he was 28, so experience-wise he's where most players are at in their late twenties. That, and the fact that he doesn't have nearly as much mileage as most outfielders in their mid-thirties, could explain why it's clicking for Cruz (and a few more fly balls flying over the fence never hurts, either).

Even if he does tail off in the second half, his pre-All-Star Break performance has been strong enough to merit a considerable pay raise when he becomes a free agent again this winter. He's a good bet to break 40 homers and 100 RBI for the first time, numbers that few in the game today are capable of reaching. That kind of big-time power deserves a big-time contract, and this time around I'm sure someone will give it to him.

Morneau Making Comeback

Morneau has returned to form with the Rockies after several disappointing seasons

What do you know? Another Rockies post! (I'm a Red Sox fan, I swear). It's just that Colorado has so many compelling narratives right now. How do you not write about Nolan Arenado's hit streak, or Troy Tulowitzki's terrific start, or Charlie Blackmon's out-of-nowhere first month?

The narrative nobody seems to be talking about, however, is that of Justin Morneau, former American League MVP back from the dead after three disappointing seasons.

Maybe that's because it's been a great year for comebacks. Albert Pujols has returned to form, and so has Mark Teixeira. Derek Jeter's back for one final go-round after missing almost all of last year, and Grady Sizemore's a contributor again after missing all of the past two seasons.

Overshadowed by these more compelling narratives as well as the players on his own team, Morneau has slipped under the radar even though, after going 2-for-5 last night, he's hitting .336/.356/.600 on the year with ten doubles, seven home runs and 26 RBI. Buoyed by good health and a slight boost from Coors Field (he still has a .920 OPS on the road), he's hitting like the Morneau of old.

You do remember the Morneau of old, don't you? The one who (somehow) snuck away with the 2006 AL MVP award, was runner-up to Dustin Pedroia in 2008 and made four straight All-Star teams? The RBI machine who knocked in at least 100 runs every year from 2006 through 2009, averaging 30 home runs and 118 ribbies per year? The two-time Silver Slugger who teamed up with Joe Mauer to form a potent 1-2 punch in the heart of Minnesota's order, back when the Twins ruled the AL Central? Seems like ages ago, doesn't it?

He was on his way to another monster season in 2010 with a 1.055 OPS through the season's first 81 games. Then he suffered a concussion sliding into second base and his career went into a downward sprial. He missed the rest of the season and the playoffs, and 2011 was basically a lost season for him, too; he played only 60 games and posted a career-worst .618 OPS. He bounced back in 2012, hitting .267/.333/.440 (112 OPS+) with 19 home runs and 77 RBI in 134 games, but not to his previous levels.

He put up similarly mediocre numbers last year, and with his contract expiring at the end of the season Minnesota declined to pick up his option and dumped him on the Pirates late in the season. The lifelong Twin failed to make much of an impression in Pittsburgh, with only five extra base hits and three RBI in 117 plate appearances (including postseason). Not surprisingly, the Pirates opted not to bring him back.

Colorado, in need of a first baseman following Todd Helton's retirement, took a chance on the 32 year-old, giving him a two-year, $14 million deal to hold down first base, join former teammate Michael Cuddyer and hopefully revive his career with a little (or a lot) of help from Coors Field.

Sure enough, he has. Morneau looks like a new man and is playing his best baseball in half a decade. Who knows if it will last or for how long, but for the time being it appears Morneau has halted his decline and re-captured the offensive skills that made him one of the best hitters in the game not too long ago.

Bay Bouncing Back

Bay, a massive bust with the Mets, has been worth every penny for Seattle

After three frustrating, injury-plagued, and disappointing seasons with the New York Mets, Jason Bay is back.

Well, sort of.

Bay, now a proud member of the Seattle Mariners after signing a one-year, one million dollar deal with them last winter, smashed two solo home runs at Target Field yesterday. His first multi-homer game since July 5th, 2011 gives him four big flies in his past five games and pads his batting line to a solid .239/.343/.479, which translates to a 132 OPS+. The 34 year-old leftfielder hasn't been this productive since 2009, when he landed a four-year, $66 million deal with the Mets after popping 36 homers and driving in 119 runs (both career highs) for the Boston Red Sox.

Bay isn't going to approach those numbers again, but he's proven himself to be an asset with the bat for a team that's been starved for offense in recent years. He ranks second on the M's in slugging and OPS (behind Kendrys Morales), and only Mike Morse has hit more home runs. If not for Mariano Rivera's return to glory, Bay might have an outside shot at winning Comeback Player of the Year.

But playing for the mediocre Mariners means few baseball fans outside of Oregon are aware of Bay's renaissance. Far from the spotlight of the Big Apple, Bay has thrived in his new surroundings and is proving that he still has some juice left in his bat. Left for dead when the Mets released him after he hit just .165/.237/.299 in 70 games with New York last year, Bay, like many washed-up sluggers in their mid-thirties (Eric Chavez, Vernon Wells, and Travis Hafner come to mind), has found a way to prolong his shelf-life by latching on to a new team and exceeding expectations.

Health remains Bay's biggest obstacle--he missed 198 games over the past three years--but if he can stay on the field he has a good shot at surpassing 20 home runs and re-establishing some of the value that evaporated during his trying tenure in New York. If he keeps hitting well, he might even luck into  a midseason trade that sends him to a contender in search of an outfield bat (i.e. the Athletics or Nationals).

Not bad for someone who was out of a job six months ago.

Can Berkman Bounce Back?

Berkman's getting older, but he can still hit (KeyeTV)

The Texas Rangers, suddenly short on offense after the free agent departures of Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli, replaced some of their lost firepower by signing Lance Berkman to a one-year contract worth $10 million plus a vesting option for 2014. The six-time All-Star will serve as his new team's Designated Hitter in the wake of Michael Young's being traded to the Philadelphia Phillies last month.

Berkman may never get another major league contract, so if this is the end of the line for him then his career has come full circle. This deal brings the Texas native back to the Lone Star State, where he was born, raised, and educated before the hometown Houston Astros drafted him out of Rice University in 1997. Berkman debuted with the big club two years later and spent the first dozen seasons of his big league career as an Astro. One of Houston's Killer B's along with Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Carlos Beltran and Derek Bell, Berkman helped lead the team to four playoff appearances during his time there, including the franchise's only World Series appearance in its 50-year history. The starstruck 'Stros were no match for the Chicago White Sox, who took a cue from the Red Sox and ended their own interminable championship drought with a Series sweep. Berkman was one of the few Astros who offered any resistance, batting .385 and knocking in six of the 14 runs his team scored in the series.

The nucleus of that team aged out and Houston hasn't been to the playoffs since. Bagwell never played again. Biggio deteriorated into a replacement level player and hung on just long enough to get his 3,000th career hit. Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte stuck around for another year before returning to the Yankees. Morgan Ensberg fell apart in his thirties, as so many ballplayers do.  But has his team crumbled around him, Berkman soldiered on.  He inherited the first base job from Bagwell, one of the finest to ever man the position, and continued to be a force in Houston's lineup until 2010.

That summer, with Berkman scuffling and the team trying to go in a different direction, Astros GM Ed Wade dealt him to the New York Yankees the day of the trading deadline even though NY had its own switch-hitting first baseman in Mark Teixeira. Berkman followed Roy Oswalt, who'd also been sent packing to the northeast (Philadelphia) two days earlier, out the door. The trade was bittersweet for Berkman, who desperately wanted to win but had spent his entire career with Houston up to that point. But the Astros were going nowhere, headed for another losing season, and the Yankees were just nine months removed from winning the World Series.  Berkman never seemed comfortable in the Big Apple and his offensive woes persisted.

Trading Berkman and Oswalt marked the onset of a rebuilding process in Houston. In the time since, the club's front office bulldozed the roster by unloading the rest of their established veterans (Michael Bourn, Carlos Lee, Wandy Rodriguez, Hunter Pence, and Brett Myers). In their two full seasons without Berkman, the Astros are the worst team in baseball and have lost twice as many games as they've won.

Many wrote him off after 2010, when he looked finished at the age of 34 and endured the worst full season as a professional. He struggled mightily at the plate, hitting just .248 with 14 home runs and 58 RBI between the Astros and Yankees. Some doubted he'd be able to find a job for 2011.

But after accepting a one-year, eight million dollar contract from the Cardinals (nearly a 50 percent pay cut), and moving to right field out of respect for Albert Pujols, Big Puma committed himself to improving his fitness routine over the offseason.  Noticeably trimmer and in the best shape of his life, Berkman returned to form in 2011. He got off to a great start with his new team and never looked back, finishing the season with a .301/.412/.547 triple slash line that produced the third highest OPS+ in the league (behind league MVP Ryan Braun and runner-up Matt Kemp). The NL Comeback Player of the Year also belted 31 homers, plated 94 runs, scored 90 times and drew 92 free passes while protecting Pujols and Matt Holliday in the Cardinals lineup. He finished seventh in the MVP race and went on to play an integral role in the team's World Series championship that fall. Berkman delivered several key hits and was especially lethal in the Fall Classic, batting .423/.516/.577 as St. Louis prevailed over Texas in seven games.

Not surprisingly, the Redbirds picked up his $12 million option for 2012, but Berkman went bust when he took four separate trips to the Disabled List and appeared in just 32 games. Once again, his future looked uncertain. When he grounded out in his final at-bat on the last day of the regular season, it seemed very possible that we had seen the last of Lance Berkman in a major league uniform. He was left off the Cardinals postseason roster. He watched from the sidelines as St. Louis came within one win of returning to the Series, only to squander their 3-1 lead over the eventual World Series champions and go home empty handed. He considered retiring.

Now, in a twist of irony, Berkman will suit up for a team still chasing its first World Series championship in part because of the damage he inflicted on them two Octobers ago. Funny how that happens in sports.

Berkman will be 37 in February, the same age Bagwell was in his injury-wracked final season, an age when most players are deep into the twilight of their careers. It goes without saying that he may not have much left in the tank. He's playing on a bum right knee that required two surgeries last year, adding to the host of leg issues that have prevented him from reaching 500 at-bats in a season since 2008. Given his age and injury history, at this stage in his career he's all but guaranteed to miss a good chunk of time.  Even if he manages to avoid the Disabled List, the Texas heat figures to wear him down over the course of a long season.

Signing Berkman is a calculated risk, but could prove to be a massive bargain if he has another renaissance season. Moving to the most hitting-friendly venue outside of Colorado will boost his numbers, or at least offset some of his age and injury-related decline. DH'ing full time should limit his injury risk and keep his body fresh. Plus it's always nice batting in the heart of a loaded lineup. Ron Washington has already said he's going to bat his new DH third to replace Hamilton's spot in the order. That means he'll have plenty of RBI opportunities with Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus setting the table for him. He'll also have Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz, and possibly Justin Upton (?) batting behind him. Berkman's primed for a comeback.

So what can the Rangers (and fantasy owners) expect from Berkman in 2013? His age definitely worries me, but not enough to label him "washed up." 37 is old in baseball years, but not too old to be a productive Designated Hitter, as Paul Molitor, Jim Thome and Edgar Martinez have proven. Father Time catches up to everyone at some point, but Berkman was a beast at 35 and hit well enough in limited action last year to suggest that his skills are still intact.  Even taking his age and medical issues into account, I feel confident saying he will rebound this year if his body holds up.

Still, it's tricky trying to forecast what Berkman will do in 2013. Bill James projects him to play 134 games, club 21 home runs and bat .273/.389/.485 (.369 wOBA).  FanGraphs is equally optimistic, predicting him to sock 19 dingers and bat .279/.384/.470 (.366 wOBA) in 123 games. Texas has to be thrilled if it can squeeze that kind of production out of Berkman. Last year, the team's DHs (mainly Napoli and Michael Young) batted a disappointing .265/.323/.432 with 18 homers and 78 RBI. If healthy, Berkman is a good bet to reach or exceed those numbers. I'll split the difference and peg him for 20 bombs, 80 RBI, and a .275 batting average. His ceiling is 2011 and his floor is 2012; I'm guessing he winds up somewhere in the middle.

He's definitely worth a spot in AL-only leagues and I'd take a flier on him in mixed leagues. Offense is hard to come by these days, and you need to get it where you can. Even if it's in the form of a 37 year-old playing on one leg.

Comeback Players of the Year

The Sporting News named Adam Dunn AL Comeback Player of the Year, but MLB selected Fernando Rodney. Both were deserving candidates; Dunn recovered from a historically awful season in 2011 to swar 41 home runs and lead the majors in walks this year, while Rodney saved 48 games and posted the lowest single season ERA (0.60) of any pitcher with at least 50 innings. Rodney was replaced by Jordan Walden as the Angels closer in 2011 and missed about six weeks in the from early June to mid-July that summer. Frustrated by his lack of playing time, he signed on with Tampa Bay at a one year, $2 million discount. Stepping in for Kyle Farnsworth, Rodney challenged Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman for the title of best closer in baseball. Personally, I think Dunn deserves the trophy because he was so brutal in 2011. It was probably the worst season any player ever had. But this year, he was back to being the Adam Dunn we know and love, the three-true-outcomes slugger in the truest sense of the phrase.

There was no disagreement over who deserved the award in the National League. Buster Posey had his season cut short by a brutal collision at the plate that broke his ankle, an injury that limited him to 45 games and devastated San Francisco's hopes to repeat as World Series champions. The injury couldn't have come at a worse time for Posey, who was riding a 13 game hitting streak and had found his groove at the plate after getting off to a slow start. Some worried how the 2010 NL Rookie of the Year would respond in 2012, but he silenced all doubters by putting together an MVP caliber season. Posey started the All-Star Game, paced the bigs in OPS+ and enjoyed one of the greatest second halves anybody has ever had by hitting .386/.458/.649 from July 8th onward. He also amassed 7.2 bWAR, most in the NL, and "won" the major league batting crown when teammate Melky Cabrera disqualified himself.

Here are some potential candidates for the 2013 award:

AL
Jacoby Ellsbury
Boston's centerfielder won the award last year, and could win it next year if he is anything close to the player he was in 2011 when he finished second to Justin Verlander in the AL MVP voting. It will be interesting to see how the front office handles him this winter since he is just one year away from free agency; I don't want to see them sell low on him as they did with Kevin Youkilis.

Michael Pineda
Remember him? If the 23 year-old can recapture the form he showed as a rookie/All-Star in 2011, when he whiffed more than a batter per inning and posted a 1.10 WHIP, he will make the Yankees forget about Jesus Montero. Would be a perfect number 2 after C.C. Sabathia.

Mariano Rivera
It will be interesting to see how Rivera responds to the first serious injury of his major league career. Also he will be 43 next year. I have this sneaky feeling he might finally be done, but he pitched well prior to shredding his ACL.

Alex Rodriguez
After Joe Girardi benched him during the playoffs, Rodriguez promised to return with a vengeance in 2013. That seems like wishful thinking for a 37 year-old third baseman who has missed an average of 38 games per year since 2008 and has seen his OPS decline every season. If he plays a full slate of games he could still go .270-25-100 in that lineup.

Brett Gardner
Playoffs included, Gardner recorded just 45 plate appearances in 2012 thanks to an elbow injury that required surgery in the middle of the season. The 29 year-old speedster is still in his prime and should challenge Mike Trout for the title of the league's best basestealer.

Andrew Bailey
Jonathan Papelbon's replacement barely played last year and was horrible when he did pitch, getting abused to the tune of a 7.04 ERA in his 19 appearances. When healthy, the two-time All-Star is one of the game's top closers and could save upwards of 35 games next year.

Ricky Romero
Is he the ace who posted a 146 ERA+ and 6.2 bWAR in 2011, or is he the train wreck who led the major leagues in walks and had a 1.67 WHIP in 2012. The answer, as always, is probably somewhere in between. He just had elbow surgery.

Evan Longoria
His per game numbers were excellent in 2012; the only problem was that he missed 88 games thanks to a torn hamstring. 2013 will be his age-27 season, so expect big things from the perennial MVP candidate. Perhaps he will finally put up that monster season we've been expecting of him.

Eric Hosmer
Talk about a sophomore slump. Hosmer stunk up the joint in 2012 to the tune of .232/.304/.359, but on the bright side he improved his walk rate and stole 16 bases in 17 attempts. His GB/FB rate went in the wrong direction but it seems he was victimized by an unfortunate .255 BABiP. Don't expect the 23 year-old first sacker to hit his Joey Votto ceiling next year, but a 20/20 season with 80 RBI and a batting average close to .300 is well within reach.

Victor Martinez
V-Mart sat out the entire 2012 season after tearing his ACL in the offseason and turns 34 in December, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the steady switch-hitter will be an RBI machine batting behind Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.

Joakim Soria
Missed the entire season after having TJ surgery. Don't forget this All-Star closer averaged a 2.01 ERA and sub-one WHIP from 2007-'10. He probably won't be that good, but I don't think he'll be as bad as he was in 2011, either.

John Danks
Danks made only nine starts before needing season-ending shoulder surgery. He hasn't been the same these past two years, but won't turn 28 until the spring and could get back to being the plus starter he was from 2008-'10.

Roger Clemens
No explanation necessary for the 50 year-old with seven Cy Youngs.

NL
Josh Beckett
Nightmare season in Boston ended when he was dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers. After the trade, he posted a 2.93 ERA and his K/9 rate jumped from 6.6 to 8.0. He should continue to post similarly impressive numbers next year.

Roy Halladay
Doc spent time on the DL with a shoulder injury and posted the worst numbers of his career since becoming a full-time starter. His days of winning Cy Youngs may be in the past, but he's better than this.

Tim Lincecum
His World Series dominance gives me some hope he won't be a total mess next year. That, and his two Cy Young awards. It also bears mentioning that he posted a respectable 3.83 ERA in the second half.

Chris Carpenter
Made just three starts this season and will turn 38 next spring, but has a track record of rebounding following injury plagued seasons.

Troy Tulowitzki
Groin injury limited him to 47 games this year. Health is usually a concern for Tulo, who's missed an average of 49 games per year going back to 2008, but when he's in the lineup he puts up big numbers. I see the 28 year-old stud bouncing back to .300-30-100 figures next year.

Daniel Hudson
Rough year for Ian Kennedy's partner-in-crime, who made only nine starts (7.35 ERA) and underwent Tommy John surgery. I was high on him entering the season and believe he'll rebound next year to a 15 game winner with an ERA in the mid-threes.

Carl Crawford
It remains to be seen if he can ever come close to repeating his successful years with Tampa Bay, but his game is tailor-made for the NL and I'm not ready to write him off just yet, especially if he gets to bat in front of Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Hanley Ramirez.

Heath Bell
After three excellent seasons in San Diego, Bell signed a three year, $27 million deal with the Marlins and pitched terribly in his Miami debut. Was much better in the second half after losing his closer's gig with a 3.10 ERA post All-Star Break. Year 2 usually goes better for free agents, and Bell is getting paid too much money not to close.

Brian Wilson
"The Beard" pitched just two innings before going under the knife for Tommy John surgery. Had a down 2011 as well, but is still a top-notch closer when healthy.

My Award Ballot

AL MVP

1. Mike Trout
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Josh Hamilton
4. Robinson Cano
5. Justin Verlander
6. Adrian Beltre
7. Prince Fielder
8. Albert Pujols
9. Edwin Encarnacion
10. Adam Jones

AL Cy Young

1. Justin Verlander
2. David Price
3. Jered Weaver
4. Felix Hernandez
5. Chris Sale

AL Rookie of the Year

1. Mike Trout
2. Yu Darvish
3. Yoenis Cespedes

AL Comeback Player of the Year-Adam Dunn

NL MVP

1. Buster Posey
2. Andrew McCutchen
3. Ryan Braun
4. Chase Headley
5. Yadier Molina
6. Giancarlo Stanton
7. Clayton Kershaw
8. David Wright
9. Matt Holliday
10. Joey Votto

NL Cy Young

1. Clayton Kershaw
2. R.A. Dickey
3. Johnny Cueto
4. Gio Gonzalez
5. Matt Cain

NL Rookie of the Year

1. Bryce Harper
2. Wade Miley
3. Todd Frazier

NL Comeback Player of the Year-David Wright