Despite Flaws, Sox Among Best Ever

Despite facing numerous obstacles, Boston made it look easy (The Atlantic)

The 2018 Boston Red Sox will go down as one of the greatest teams in baseball history. After storming their way to a franchise-record 108 wins during the regular season, they proceeded to blitz through October, going 11-3 against the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers to capture the club’s fourth World Series title of the century and ninth overall. All told, their 119 victories were the second-most for a World Series champion, trailing only the 1998 New York Yankees.

Obviously, a lot has to go right for a baseball team to win that many games, and a lot did go right for this year’s Red Sox. Mookie Betts turned in one of the greatest individual seasons ever, amassing 10.4 fWAR en route to AL MVP honors. J.D. Martinez had a strong case for the award as well after threatening the Triple Crown with 43 homers, 130 RBIs and a .330 batting average. Andrew Benintendi avoided the dreaded sophomore slump after finishing second to Aaron Judge in the 2017 Rookie of the Year race. Xander Bogaerts and Eduardo Rodriguez overcame injuries and finally started living up to their potential. Chris Sale was arguably the best pitcher in baseball on a per-inning basis, and Rick Porcello bounced back from leading the Majors in losses in 2017 to leading the team in wins. David Price recovered from an injury-marred 2017 to go 16-7 with a 3.56 ERA before exorcising his playoff demons. Craig Kimbrel continued being one of baseball’s best closers, and the rest of the bullpen was surprisingly solid. Midseason trades for Nathan Eovaldi and World Series MVP Steve Pearce paid huge dividends, especially during the postseason. Rookie manager Alex Cora made his job look easy, navigating a full season in Boston’s fishbowl without a hint of controversy and pushing all the right buttons in October.

And yet, the Red Sox were a great team in spite of everything that went wrong for them. They endured 26 separate DL stints – only seven teams had more. Hanley Ramirez slashed .254/.313/.395 through 44 games before being released in late May. Dustin Pedroia was limited to just three games due to knee injuries, and his replacements (Eduardo Nunez, Ian Kinsler, Brock Holt, the ghost of Brandon Phillips) struggled to pick up the slack. Boston’s catching corps was the worst in baseball, ranking dead last in wRC+ (44) and fWAR (-2.1). Jackie Bradley Jr. didn’t hit during the first half, and Mitch Moreland didn’t hit during the second. Benintendi eluded the sophomore slump, but Rafael Devers didn’t. Sale hardly pitched during the final two months of the season and was noticeably diminished during the playoffs. Price scuffled in the first half and continued to flounder against the Yankees. Drew Pomeranz turned into a pumpkin. Steven Wright, Tyler Thornburg, and Carson Smith missed most of the season for the second year in a row. Joe Kelly was plagued by inconsistency. Blake Swihart wasted away on the bench as his development continued to stall. Kimbrel saw his walk rate balloon during the regular season before nearly blowing multiple games during October. The farm system is still utterly barren, and Boston will have to pay luxury tax penalties after outspending every team in baseball this year – partially because they paid Pablo Sandoval and Rusney Castillo a combined $30 million to play in San Francisco and Pawtucket.

So no, the Red Sox were not a lucky team by any stretch of the imagination – but it’s scary to think how good they could have been if they were.

San Francisco's Sneaky Dynasty

Watching the Giants win the last game of the season has become commonplace

It took the Giants 53 seasons to win a World Series after leaving New York following the 1957 season. The drought, snapped in 2010, has been followed by a deluge, as San Francisco has won two more championships since, all under the guidance of future Hall of Fame manager Bruce Bochy.

The Giants have done it with solid all-around teams. None of those title teams had a 30 home run hitter or a 20 game winner, but they were all deep and balanced. Kudos to GM Brian Sabean for building winning rosters year after year.

The first of those teams--the 2010 edition--was a good one. The '10 Giants won 92 games and the NL West, scoring nearly 700 runs while allowing below 600 for a strong run differential of +114. They were middle of the pack offensively but fielded an elite pitching staff that led the National League in ERA and strikeouts. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum fronted a rotation that included a 20 year-old rookie named Madison Bumgarner. The bullpen featured Brian Wilson at the peak of his powers (48 saves, 1.81 ERA) along with a pair of dominant relievers in Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla.

Minus Bumgarner, the pitching staff was largely comprised of players in their prime. The starting nine was an odd mix of young (20 year-old Buster Posey in his rookie season, 23 year-old Pablo Sandoval in his third) and mostly old veterans and cast-offs (Aubrey Huff, Aaron Rowand, Pat Burrell, Edgar Renteria). But pretty much everyone could hit for some power and get on base, and so the Giants cobbled together a surprisingly effective lineup. They beat the Braves in four in the NLCS, toppled Philadelphia in six for the pennant, then glided past the Texas Rangers in five games for the championship.

After missing the playoffs with an 86-win season in 2011, the Giants won their division again in 2012. Though they won two more games than and outscored their 2010 predecessors by 21 runs (thanks almost entirely to Posey's MVP-season, Melky Cabrera's PED-fueled outburst, a career year from Angel Pagan, and Hunter Pence's late-season contributions), their pitching wasn't as good and their run differential slipped to +69.

Looking back, it's hard to believe how that lineup scored more than 700 runs when only one guy (Posey) hit more than a dozen home runs and only three reached double digits. Similarly, only those three exceeded 60 RBI, with Posey the only one over 65. But while the Giants did not have much power, ranking dead last in home runs with 100, they did excel at getting on base and getting hits. With many of the veterans from the 2010 squad gone or phased out, San Francisco was a younger and more athletic team (as evidenced by their 118 steals).

The key to that team's success was a rotation that remained remarkably healthy. The starting five of Bumgarner, Cain, Lincecum, Barry Zito, and Ryan Vogelsong started all but two games that year. Lincecum went off the rails (10-15, 5.18 ERA), but the rest of the rotation was formidable enough to compensate. The bullpen was still led by Casilla, Romo, and Javier Lopez though Wilson had become irrelevant. Jeremy Affeldt, a member of the 2010 outfit, emerged as one of the team's best relievers to give San Fran a strong relief corps.

Those 2012 Giants were lucky to even reach the World Series. They went the distance against the Reds in the NLDS and prevailed over St. Louis in Game 7 of the NLCS. After that it was smooth-sailing, as they swept the heavily-favored Tigers in the World Series.

2013 was a nightmare season for San Francisco, which lost 86 games and was never really in contention. The Giants were better in 2014, good enough to make the playoffs but still not a great team. They earned a wild card berth with 88 wins and a +51 run differential mostly because of torrid second halves from Buster Posey and Jake Peavy.

The lineup, as always, had few standouts but was solidly constructed, overcoming significant injuries to four of the nine main contributors. Of the 10 players with the most plate appearances on the club, all but one (Brandon Hicks) had an OPS+ above 100. Like the 2010 version, they could all get on base and hit for a bit of pop, which goes a long way. The speed from the 2012 team was absent, however, as the plodding Giants swiped just 56 bases and finished last in the NL.

With Cain hurt and Lincecum ineffective, Bumgarner was the clear-cut ace. He had help in the form of Tim Hudson and, in the second half, Peavy, but San Fran's rotation was pretty thin (as exposed by the weak-hitting Royals in the Fall Classic). The bullpen was still headed by Affeldt, Romo, Lopez, and Casilla in addition to Jean Machi. Like the rotation, it was neither great nor terrible, which explains how San Francisco was so average.

But while this year's championship edition was the worst of the three, it had the easiest run up to the World Series. The Giants cruised past the Pirates in the play-in game, washed away the Nationals in four games in the NLDS, then upset the Cards in five games. They stumbled in the Fall Classic, nearly going down three games to one before rallying to win Games 4, 5, and 7. They may have needed plenty of help from Mr. Bumgarner, but at the end of the day they still got the job done.

Spurs Hammer Heat

The Spurs wrote the latest chapter of their dynasty by beating the Heat in five

There will be no three-peat for the Miami Heat. For the fifth time since 1999 but first since 2007, the San Antonio Spurs are NBA champions.

I said it three years ago when the Mavs brought down the Heat, so I might as well say it again: all is right with the world.

It only took five games for the Spurs to dispatch their star-studded opponents, who appeared thoroughly overmatched in the final three games of this series. The Heat barely put up a fight, losing by 19 and 21 on their home court, then getting blown out of the AT&T Center in a must-win Game 5. They were steamrolled by Greg Poppovich's finely tuned machine, which was firing on all cylinders and outplayed Miami in every aspect. San Antonio had the edge in rebounding, passing, defense, outside shooting, post play, and depth. Top to bottom, the Spurs were the superior team, and it showed.

It was evident during the regular season, when they won 62 games and had the NBA's best record. It was confirmed throughout the postseason, as San Antonio outlasted Dallas in seven games, then Portland in five, and finally OKC in six to earn another trip back to the NBA Finals, where they were defeated by Miami in seven games last year after blowing a five point lead late in Game 6, the basketball equivalent of Mookie Wilson's grounder scooting through Bill Buckner's legs.

It took the Red Sox 18 years to get back to the World Series after Buckner's gaffe. It only took the Spurs one year. Motivated by their soul-crushing defeat, they stormed back for retribution and redemption, hushing any whispers of decline and closing championship windows along the way. San Antonio possessed the drive, desire, and determination necessary to survive a grueling regular season and two-month postseason, asserting their dominance at every turn.

Which is not to say Miami wasn't driven to three-peat, something that hasn't been done since Phil Jackson coached the Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant Lakers to three straight titles from 2000-2002. But the Heat clearly coasted during the regular season, winning eight fewer games than the Spurs and settling for the second seed in the East, biding their time until the postseason rolled around. Sure enough, they kicked it into high gear once the playoffs started, sweeping Charlotte, breaking Brooklyn in five and edging out Indiana in six. The Heat seemed to be hitting their stride at the perfect time and were favored to win their rematch with the Spurs, even though San Antonio had home court advantage*.

Speaking of home court advantage, Miami did not lose a playoff game on their home court this year until the Spurs came to town and blasted them by 40 points in the two games combined. So much for that.

The most shocking outcome of this series was that Miami was outscored by 76 points in the five games (15.2 per game, including their Game 2 win). I can't imagine anyone saw San Antonio's aging Big Three outplaying Miami's Big Three to such a degree. Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker were all at the top of their games. LeBron James, cramps aside, was the best player in this series (as expected), but Dwyane Wade crapped the bed and Chris Bosh was merely good. All too often it felt as though James was taking on the entire Spurs team by himself, and as great as James is he proved with the Cavs that he's incapable of winning a championship without help. Nobody can.

But what really doomed the Heat was the stellar play of Kawhi Leonard and the Spurs' complementary players. The Finals MVP obviously had an exceptional series on both ends of the court, but he had plenty of (somewhat unexpected) help from the likes of Patty Mills, Danny Green, and Boris Diaw. The Spurs gelled, and it was truly magnificent to watch. Nobody seemed afraid of the moment and everyone stepped up when needed.

The Heat, however, received no such heroics from their own role players: Norris Cole, Mario Chalmers, Rashard Lewis, and Chris Andersen were nonfactors for most of the series. Ray Allen hit plenty of shots, but not enough to sway the final outcome. San Antonio's depth was too much for Miami to handle, and so the Heat were done in by their dearth of quality options off the bench. Say what you want about Erik Spoelstra's coaching ability, but he was outgunned and outmanned in these finals.

So when the Spurs executed as flawlessly as they did and played great basketball for long stretches of time, the Heat couldn't compete. Their flaws--poor interior defense, iffy outside shooting, lack of depth--were exposed and, as the lopsided scores of Games 3, 4, and 5 indicated, became painfully obvious. From the start of the season to the end of it, San Antonio was the better team. And, as is so often the case in team sports, the better team won.

Why the Red Sox Will Repeat

The Red Sox are well-positioned to win another title in 2014 (ESPN)

Yesterday I played the devil's advocate and explored three reasons why the Red Sox won't win the World Series this year, so today I'll offer a more positive outlook and give three reasons why they will win the World Series.

1. Starting Pitching
The Red Sox have a really deep rotation that should rank among the league's best. Their starting five projects to be Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Jake Peavy, and Felix Doubront, with Chris Capuano avaliable for spot starts. All pitched effectively in 2013, and all except Doubront are former All-Stars.

Lester was dominant during the postseason and may be ready to reclaim his ace status as he enters his contract year, while Buchholz was making a case for the Cy Young award before he was sidelined for the summer. When Buchholz is healthy, they form a strong 1-2 punch at the top of Boston's rotation with a resurgent Lackey and capable Peavy providing depth. The Sox also have an impressive collection of pitching prospects (Allen Webster, Matt Barnes, and Anthony Ranaudo) that could be ready to join the staff in the near future.

2. Offense
Boston had the best record in baseball one year ago primarily because of their elite offense. Their 853 runs scored were tops in the major leagues (nobody else scored more than 800). The Red Sox lineup is tremendous top-to-bottom, blending speed, power, and patience. Even without Jacoby Ellsbury, Stephen Drew and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, their lineup figures to be among the strongest in baseball because of their ability to grind out at-bats and get good pitches to hit. They'll be especially formidable if Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Xander Bogaerts make good on their potential and Will Middlebrooks builds upon his strong second half. Their success would help stretch out Boston's lineup and take some pressure off the heart of the order, comprised of veterans Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz and Mike Napoli.

3. Young Talent Ready to Step Up
Bogaerts, baseball's second best prospect at the age of 21, is a superstar-in-the-making and preseason favorite to win Rookie of the Year. Middlebrooks and Bradley showed signs of improvement late last year and should be better than they were during their miserable early season slumps. Doubront lowered his ERA from 4.86 in 2012 to 4.32 last year and could get it below four if he shows better command. On the verge of his third season as a starting pitcher, he could be poised for a breakout.

Conclusion:
The Red Sox have plenty of pitching and plenty of hitting, plus defense, solid baserunning and a smart manager (John Farrell) at the helm. What more could you ask for?

13 Super Bowl Predictions

1. There is a missed field goal (looking at you, David Akers)
2. Frank Gore rushes for a touchdown (or two)
3. Joe Flacco unleashes a TD pass longer than 50 yards
4. Ray Lewis's career ends with a whimper when he doesn't find the end zone and is held below 50 rushing yards
5. Ray Rice, on the other hand, has a huge game 
6. Colin Kaepernick does it in the air and on the ground, racking up multiple touchdowns and more than 300 all-purpose yards in the process
7. Beyonce kills it during the halftime show, and Jay-Z makes an appearance as well
8. The ads won't be that funny
9. There is a surprising amount of offense for what is supposed to be a battle between two of the NFL's top defenses
10. Randy Moss does not record a catch
11. Bernard Pollard gets hurt and justice is served (for Patriots fans, at least)
12. Michael Oher doesn't have any penalties called on him
13. The 49ers win