Monday, May 28, 2012

NBA Conference Semis Review

This time around I got all the teams correct, but failed to accurately predict how long any of the series would last.

East

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers
Prediction-Heat in five
Reality-Heat in six
I made this prediction after Chris Bosh went down with an abdominal strain, believing that the dynamic duo of Dwyane Wade and LeBron James would still be too much for the Pacers to overcome. Following Wade's meltdown in Game 3, they both played top notch basketball to close out Indiana. I desperately wanted Indy to pull out a win in this series, but they put up a pretty good fight.  They led in Games 1 and 4, and if they could have held on they would have shocked the world with a sweep of the hated Heat.  This series was one of the most heated and violent NBA showdowns in recent memory, and I don't believe Larry Bird was correct when he called his team "soft" (and then reminded the world that the word is spelled S-O-F-T.  Thanks Larry).  Nobody gave the Pacers much of a chance, but they didn't back down from the challenge.

Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction-Celtics in six
Reality-Celtics in seven
As a Celtics fan, this series frustrated the hell out of me even though I expected it to last awhile.  Boston was plagued by inconsistency all series long, and Charles Barkley may have been on to something when he said they weren't taking the 76ers seriously.  This lack of respect was evident in Game 4, when they lost focus and blew an early 18 point lead as well as a chance to grab a 3-1 series lead.  That failure to step on Philadelphia's throat cost them several precious days of rest heading into their impending showdown with the much younger and more athletic Miami.  Until the fourth quarter of Game 7 it seemed that Boston couldn't hit three pointers if their lives depended on it, mainly because a banged up Ray Allen endured a horrendous shooting slump.  Their struggles from beyond the arc prevented them from spreading the floor, allowing Philly to clog the paint and limit Kevin Garnett and Brandon Bass to midrange jumpers.  Give the Sixers, particularly Andre Iguodala (locked down Paul Pierce) credit for playing superb defense and taking the Celts to the wire.  Ultimately Boston's key advantages in coaching and playoff experience seemed to win out.  Doc Rivers rallied his troops when they needed a psychological boost, and Philly shot themselves in the foot time and time again by missing free throws and committing key turnovers.  Elton Brand was the only Sixers started who had played in a Game 7 before, and it showed.

West

San Antonio vs Clippers
Prediction-Spurs in six
Reality-Spurs in four
The Clips, coming off an exhausting seven game battle with the Grizzlies, were no match for the well-rested and more polished Spurs.  San Antonio is the hottest team in basketball right now, and unlike the Celtics they have a firm understanding of the importance of rest for an aging team.  I thought LA's athleticism and youth would give them the edge in some games, but Chris Paul and Blake Griffin were dinged up and didn't look like themselves.  San Antonio's incredible depth, coaching and execution overwhelmed the Clippers, who are still very young and raw.  With Tim Duncan's career winding down, you get the feeling that the Spurs sense this is their last chance to win a championship, and that they aren't going to let this opportunity pass them by.  Father Time will get the best of them some day, but for now they're probably the most dangerous playoff team out there.

Oklahoma City vs Lakers
Prediction-Thunder in seven
Reality-Thunder in five
I expected much more from the Kobe Bryant's Lakers, but it's becoming clear that their team, as currently constructed, is not championship material.  Mike Brown's not a great coach, and can't hold a candle to Phil Jackson.  The Bryant-Gasol relationship doesnt't work, and LA as a whole just don't have the depth to compensate for their age.  They desperately need a point guard; Ramon Sessions is an upgrade over Derek Fisher but still leaves a lot to be desired. Kobe played well but hoisted up too many contested jumpers and struggled in the fourth quarter; he is not the elite closer that many fans believe him to be.  At times he seems unwilling to facilitate, and his selfishness greatly hampers Andrew Bynum's effectiveness.  Meanwhile Pau Gasol looked timid on offense, passing up open shots and proving once again that for all his skills and finesse, his softness makes a complementary player instead of a superstar.  Kobe probably shouldn't have called him out like that, but what he said was 100 percent true.  It's going to be a long summer and tumultuous offseason in the wake of another disappointing playoff performance.

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