Minnesota's Mediocre Rotation

Santana struggled with the Braves and will be a bust for the Twins (FoxSports)

The Minnesota Twins made a pair of questionable pitching acquisitions over the past week, inking Ervin Santana to a four-year, $55 million contract and extending Phil Hughes through 2019.

Why sign Santana, a below average pitcher in two of the past three years who just turned 32, for four years at nearly $14 million per (not including a $14 million option for the fifth year that vests if he completes 200 innings in 2018)? His numbers got worse after moving to the National League last year, when he was worth just 1.2 bWAR and posted his highest WHIP since 2010. He's durable, yes, and his velocity has held steady, but he's also on the wrong side of 30 and moving back to the American League. He's also been wildly inconsistent throughout his career, with as many seasons with an ERA over 4.25 (five) as below.

Hughes has been just as erratic, not to mention pretty terrible. Before last year, his career ERA was 4.53, his FIP was 4.31, and his WHIP was 1.32. His first seven seasons produced a meager 6.3 bWAR, an average of 0.9 per season. And yet, his extension will pay him $58 over the next five years, his age 29-33 seasons. That means the Twins expect him to be about twice as good as he has been (worth roughly two wins per year) in his early 30s, a risky move for someone only one year removed from a 4-14 season with a 5.19 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Minnesota's putting a lot of stock in his 2014 and seemingly ignoring the seven years that preceded it, which obviously isn't wise.

The Twins were incredibly lucky with Hughes last year, getting a Cy Young-caliber year out of him when they had no reason to expect one (and at the modest price of $8 million to boot). They still had him under contract for this year and next, however, so there was no need to re-sign him now. Pitchers are incredibly fragile, and a lot could happen between now and the end of 2016. Even if he doesn't get hurt, he could still just as easily turn back into a pumpkin. When will teams learn that extending older players multiple years away from free agency is a terrible idea? (think the Phillies regret doing it with Ryan Howard?)

Hughes has had one great season and will probably never pitch that well again, as there's no way he comes close to replicating his 11.63 K/BB ratio Steamer expects his ERA to rise nearly half a run in 2015 and for him to be about half as valuable as he was last year). The best-case scenario for Santana is that he'll be a league average pitcher over 200 innings, but even that seems unlikely. Steamer projects his ERA to rise nearly half a run next year to 4.41, which would be very mediocre. Considering his ERA rose almost three-quarters of a run from 2013 to 2014 despite his shift to the National League, projecting further regression in his return to the American League seems reasonable.

Since last winter, Minnesota has committed 14 years (excluding options) and around $170 million to Hughes, Santana, and Ricky Nolasco. Investing so much in a trio of pedestrian pitchers, all of whom will be well into their thirties by the time their contracts expire, is going to make it difficult for the mid-market Twins to escape the cellar of the AL Central, where they've been comfortably residing for the past four years. It's hard enough to buy your way up the ladder with perennially thin free agent markets, and even harder still when your acquisitions weren't that good to begin with.

Braves Snag Santana

The Braves scooped up Santana well below the market rate 

When pitchers and catchers reported to spring training four weeks ago, I'm sure the last thing the Atlanta Braves thought they'd need would be more starting pitching. But a sudden rash of injuries to Kris Medlen, Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy left them short on arms, prompting yesterday's signing of Ervin Santana to a one-year deal worth $14.1 million.

Despite forfeiting a draft pick the Braves still got a great deal by essentially acquiring Santana, who originally wanted $100 million and was still seeking a four-year deal recently, for the cost of his qualifying offer. Plus they were able to avoid giving him a multi-year deal, which would have been risky given his spotty track record (Santana's posted full season ERAs over five in 2007, 2009 and 2012) and likely unnecessary, assuming something doesn't happen to Julio Teheran and that at least one of the aforementioned injured hurlers returns to health this year or next.

Given his level of success last year and throughout his career (six years with at least 30 starts, five with over 200 innings) I'm surprised Santana was still available. Durable, effective and still relatively young at 31, Santana would have been an asset for any team and is a more than capable last-minute fix. FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference both agree he was worth around three wins above replacement last year when he bounced back from a miserable 2012 to give the Royals 211 innings of 3.24 ERA ball (the best league and park adjusted ERA of his career). He also posted the second-best WHIP, walk rate and K/BB ratio of his career, teaming up with James Shields to form a dynamic duo at the top of Kansas City's rotation

Santana couldn't get the Royals over the postseason hump last year but should make an impact as a mid-rotation starter for the reigning NL East champions. Though he's another year older and thus more prone to age and injury regression, moving to the National League and a pitching friendly park should help Santana duplicate, if not improve, his 2013 production and thus his earning potential for next winter. Turner Field will help neutralize his home run tendencies, too, which makes his 2014 outlook even rosier.

So long as Santana stays healthy and doesn't have one of his patented disaster years, Atlanta's going to get their money's worth.

Shields & Santana Royal Success

Shields (pictured) and Santana are lifting the Royals to new heights

The red-hot Royals have roared back into contention over the past month. They've won 21 of their 29 games since the All-Star Break, including 17 of 20 from July 23rd through August 12th. They're pitching well, playing extraordinary defense, and scoring just enough runs to scrape by.

And, for the first time in who knows how long, they have a formidable 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation. Their two biggest offseason acquisitions--James Shields and Ervin Santana--have stepped up to lead the staff with the best ERA in the American League. They rank second and tenth, respectively, in innings pitched and are tied for tenth in ERA, combining for about five wins above replacement.

Before the season began, though, nobody was hailing the dynamic duo as saviors. Instead, every baseball fan with a working brain was ripping Royals GM Dayton Moore for giving up so much to acquire Shields, Wade Davis and a player to be named later (Elliot Johnson). Moore, in a desperate effort to win-now, dealt Wil Myers and three prospects to Tampa Bay for Shields and spare parts. Shields is a number two starter who's going to be a free agent after the season. Myers is a 22 year-old phenom who's already setting the world on fire and is going to be a star for years to come.

It's scary to imagine what would've happened if Shields had gone bust--either by getting hurt or regressing to the dismal form he displayed in 2009 and 2010. The baseball universe would have imploded. Moore would be out of a job and probably dead; hanged, drawn, and quartered through the streets of Kansas City by bloodthirsty Royals fans.

Thankfully, Shields has lived up to his end of the bargain by doing what he does best--staying healthy and pitching very well. The ever-durable Shields hasn't missed a start and has thrown more innings than any American League hurler not named Justin Masterson, while maintaining the second-best ERA of his career. He's completed six innings or more in 23 of his 26 starts and has never pitched fewer than five Even on days when he doesn't have his best stuff, he still manages to go deep into games and preserve the bullpen.

Santana, on the other hand, represented a much bigger question mark. Nobody knew what to expect from the 30 year-old pitcher with a spotty track record coming off the worst season of his career, one in which he led the majors in home runs allowed and had an ERA over five. That didn't discourage the Royals from taking him off the Angels' hands and hoping that he would pitch like he did the two years before last, when he delivered over 450 innings with a 3.65 ERA.

Sure enough, Santana's bounced back. He's been every bit as valuable as Shields, and probably a hair better. They have the same 3.19 ERA, but it's Santana who owns the superior W-L record, WHIP, and K/BB ratio. The gamble has paid off.

So now, with the Royals gunning for their first postseason appearance since 1985, they need both workhorses to continue pitching at their top of their games. Big Game James must live up to his reputation and Santana can't afford to relapse. They've spent all summer making Dayton Moore look good. It would be a real shame if they let him down now.