Hunter Hangs 'Em Up

Hunter is retiring after a nice final season with the Twins (MLive)

After a stellar and tremendously consistent 19-year career, Torii Hunter is calling it quits.

Hunter had returned to the Minnesota Twins--who drafted him out of high school and watched him develop into one of the best center fielders of his generation--on a one-year deal for 2015. While he didn't explicitly say so, it was assumed he intended to retire as a member of the Twins, whom he played for from 1997-2007. He was going to be 40 in July, and while he'd been productive the last couple years one get the sense that his career was winding down. Why else would he want to come home?

Especially since the Twins have been terrible the last few years. When guys get to be Hunter's age and haven't won a ring yet, they usually want to go where they'll have a chance to do so. A popular, respected player with some juice left in his bat like Hunter could have latched on almost anywhere, had he been willing to take a discount. In need of a bat and veteran leadership for its up-and-coming team, Minnesota paid him above market value to come back.

It seemed like a sentimental move more than anything else. Hunter had been replacement level in 2014 and figured to be worse in 2015. That's nobody's idea of a $10 million player. But if anyone could afford to give a former star one last victory lap, the Twins could. With so much young talent to break in, Minnesota wasn't ready to contend.

As it turned out, the team and Hunter were both much better than expected. The Twins surprised everyone by finishing second in the AL Central, pursuing a wild card berth until the season's final week. Hunter hit 22 home runs--his most in a season since 2011--and played 139 games.

It was a fitting farewell for Hunter, one of the best and most popular Twins of all-time. Drafted by Minnesota in 1993, he made the big club in 1997 alongside David Ortiz, who like Hunter kept hitting throughout his entire 30s.

Also like Ortiz, it took Hunter a few years to get going. He didn't break out until he was 25, by which point he was in his fifth season--but once he did he never looked back. He hit 27 home runs and won his first of nine straight Gold Gloves that year (2001), made his first All-Star team and finished sixth in the MVP vote the following year, and had his first 100 RBI season the year after that. Nicknamed "Spiderman" for his amazing catches, he was quietly one of the best players of the 2000s, racking up eight Gold Gloves and topping 20 homers eight times (11 in all).

By the end of the decade he was an Angel, having moved on after a big walk year in 2007. When Vladimir Guerrero departed he moved over to right, which no doubt extended his career. He'd shown signs of slowing down in his last season as an everyday center fielder, batting .262 with his worst slugging percentage in over a decade.

But before long LA's outfield became too crowded for him, with Mike Trout taking over in center and Josh Hamilton signing on. Hunter found a home in Detroit, where he had two near-identical offensive campaings in 2013 and 2014.

It was towards the end of his first year with the Tigers that he was involved in what may be the most memorable play of his career. It was Game 2 of the ALCS and Boston, and Detroit led 5-1 in the bottom of the eighth. The bases were loaded and David Ortiz, Hunter's old teammate, stood at the plate, facing fresh reliever (Joaquin Benoit) summoned to extinguish the flames.

Ortiz turned on Benoit's first pitch and belted it deep into the night. 37,000 cold, tired fans leapt from their seats as the ball rocketed towards the right field bullpen. Hunter raced back to the wall and leapt, his glove hand stretched as high as it could go. Hunter had robbed many a would-be home run before, and it looked like he might do so again. He timed his leap perfectly, but without time to set his feet  he slammed into the wall, then flipped over it as his momentum carried him out of play. The ball followed him into the bullpen, having just cleared his outstretched mitt.

The game was tied, and within a matter of hours, so was the series. The Red Sox went on to win in six, then proceeded to beat the Cardinals in the World Series. Had Hunter made the catch, Detroit would have won the game and probably the series. It could have been them celebrating after defeating St. Louis. And Hunter, of course, would have been the hero for robbing a would-be game-tying grand slam.

Instead, he retires with the best play of his career occurring in an All-Star Game. It was a superb play, to be sure, but I guarantee Hunter would trade it in a heartbeat for the ALCS grab, especially since he nearly killed himself trying to make it.

But not even that could slow him down. Nothing ever did.

Oh sure, he lost range over time as all mortals do. His defense inevitably slipped, forcing him over to right field and eventually DH. But even as he became a non-factor on the bases and a liability in the field, he remained a threat in the batter's box.

It's rare that centerfielders age as well as Hunter did. I think of Mickey Mantle, Dale Murphy, and Ken Griffey Jr., all of whom broke down in their 30s. Same goes for Andruw Jones, Vada Pinson, Fred Lynn, and Cesar Cedeno. Jim Edmonds couldn't stay healthy. All that running and crashing into walls usually catches up to you.

Not Hunter. He had pretty much the same season every year for 15 years. He'd bat around .280 with 20 homers, 20 steals, and 90 or so RBI. Like clockwork. There were a couple years where he got hurt--in 2005 he was limited to 98 games and in 2009 played only 119--but for the most part he was in the lineup everyday.

You know whose career Hunter's reminds me a lot of? Johnny Damon's. They were never really great, All-Star caliber players, let alone serious MVP candidates, but they were really good for a long time and held up surprisingly well. They played on some terrific teams and were usually in the postseason. They were pretty indestructible, too.

Hunter wasn't quite as good as Damon, but he had a better career than most people realize. His counting numbers are actually very similar to Jim Rice's. He surpassed 350 homers and fell just short of some other big round numbers like 2,500 hits, 500 doubles, 200 stolen bases, 1,400 RBI, and 1,300 runs. Not quite Hall of Fame numbers, but Hall of Very Good for sure.

Most impressively, Hunter went out on his own terms, not because of injury or as some washed up bum on a team he didn't care about. He got to retire as a healthy contributor for his original team after a year in which they almost made the postseason. It's not the perfect final chapter, but it's still a happy ending.

Swihart Swats First Career HR

Swihart's solo shot was a titanic blast onto Lansdowne Street (Fox Sports)

One of the few Red Sox highlights from Boston's ugly 8-4 loss to the Twins yesterday was that Blake Swihart launched the first of what will hopefully be many home runs for the rookie catcher..

With two outs and nobody on, Swihart snapped a 22-game and 75 at-bat homerless streak to begin his career in the bottom of the third. Facing Twins starter Tommy Milone for the second time that day, Swihart laid off two close pitches to put himself up 2-0 in the count. The lefty's third pitch was a mistake, right over the heart of the plate, and Swihart crushed it. His first career blast was a moonshot, clearing the Monster seats and landing 406 feet from home plate. It was a no-doubter, an absolute bomb.

Unfortunately the bases were empty when he left the yard, so it only counted as one. Swihart's blast put the Sox up 3-0, but Boston was unable to hold the lead and ultimately dropped the series finale to Minnesota. It also made him the youngest Sox catcher to go deep since Rich Gedman, a two-time All-Star with Boston, belted his first dinger at the age of 21 during the strike-shortened 1981 season.

The long ball continued a recent resurgence at the plate for Swihart, who has now hit safely in eight of his last nine games. His batting line is still a lowly .218/.247/.295 on the season, but that marks a huge improvement over where it stood just a few weeks ago. The 23 year-old is barely a month into his major league career, after all, and in a perfect world would still be getting additional seasoning down in Pawtucket. But with Christian Vazquez out for the season and Ryan Hanigan sidelined until at least the All-Star Break, Swihart's been thrust into a starting role much sooner than expected. He's learning on the job and experiencing natural growing pains that come with that, which might be more magnified because catchers usually take longer to develop than other position players.

For all of Swihart's struggles at the dish, he's still a better hitter than Boston's other backstop, Sandy Leon. Leon is batting a mere .170 with two RBI on the season and has yet to notch an extra base hit in 57 plate appearances. If Swihart's overmatched, Leon's totally helpless, and it's not like Hanigan was Mike Piazza, either. Catcher has been an offensive black hole for the Sox all season, so it would certainly be nice if Swihart started hitting.

Then again, it would be really nice if every other Red Sock not named Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts started hitting too.

Sox Blow Early Lead, Settle for Split

Hunter connects for a three-run homer, his 200th with the Twins (Star Tribune)

The Boston Red Sox were in complete control of yesterday's series finale versus the Minnesota Twins through the first four innings. Boston led 4-0, had opposing starter Tommy Milone on the ropes, and Steven Wright was baffling Twins batters with his knuckleball. It looked as though the Sox were headed for an easy win, not to mention their first series win in almost two weeks.

That momentum evaporated with one swing of Torii Hunter's aging bat in the top of the fifth, when the 39 year-old crushed a three-run homer over the Monster to bring Minnesota back to within one. The Twins tied the game the next inning--Wright's last--aided by an overthrow from Pablo Sandoval into the Boston dugout.

The Red Sox still appeared to be in good shape heading into the ninth inning, what with Koji Uehara on the mound (one earned run allowed in the past six weeks) and the top of their order due up in the bottom half. All Koji had to do was keep the Twins off the board and turn the game over to Boston's best hitters--Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, and David Ortiz.

Shockingly, Uehara failed to record a single out despite getting two strikes on three of the four batters he faced. Brian Dozier stroked a two-strike single, then Hunter did the same. In a bizarre and highly questionable managerial move by Paul Molitor, Joe Mauer laid down a sacrifice bunt that dribbled out in front of the plate. Rookie catcher Blake Swihart rushed out to retrieve it and fired to third, hoping to nail the lead runner, but his throw was low and eluded Sandoval's glove, ending up in left field. The gaffe scored Dozier, giving Minnesota the lead, and advanced Hunter to third.

Trevor Plouffe worked the count full, then drove a single to left that absolutely could have been caught had Hanley Ramirez gotten a better jump and/or been a faster human being. Instead it landed over his head and bounced up against the wall. Hunter, who would have scored easily even if Hanley had made the catch, came home while Mauer moved up to second.

John Farrell had seen enough from his rattled closer, and removed him in favor of Craig Breslow. Breslow only made things worse, however, allowing two more runs to score and essentially putting the game out of reach for Boston. The Red Sox batters did their part by going down 1-2-3 in the bottom of the ninth against Twins closer and likely All-Star Glen Perkins, who nailed down his second save in less than 24 hours.

The Red Sox hope to get back on track tonight against the only American League team with a worse record than them--the scuffling Oakland A's. Wade Miley will try to even his record at 5-5 as well as bounce back from a horrendous outing in Texas last weekend, where he was battered for nine hits and six runs (five earned) in four innings. Boston will face a much tougher opponent in the form of Scott Kazmir, whose ERA is more than two full runs lower than Miley's at 2.93. First pitch will be at 7:10 PM EST.

Minnesota's Mediocre Rotation

Santana struggled with the Braves and will be a bust for the Twins (FoxSports)

The Minnesota Twins made a pair of questionable pitching acquisitions over the past week, inking Ervin Santana to a four-year, $55 million contract and extending Phil Hughes through 2019.

Why sign Santana, a below average pitcher in two of the past three years who just turned 32, for four years at nearly $14 million per (not including a $14 million option for the fifth year that vests if he completes 200 innings in 2018)? His numbers got worse after moving to the National League last year, when he was worth just 1.2 bWAR and posted his highest WHIP since 2010. He's durable, yes, and his velocity has held steady, but he's also on the wrong side of 30 and moving back to the American League. He's also been wildly inconsistent throughout his career, with as many seasons with an ERA over 4.25 (five) as below.

Hughes has been just as erratic, not to mention pretty terrible. Before last year, his career ERA was 4.53, his FIP was 4.31, and his WHIP was 1.32. His first seven seasons produced a meager 6.3 bWAR, an average of 0.9 per season. And yet, his extension will pay him $58 over the next five years, his age 29-33 seasons. That means the Twins expect him to be about twice as good as he has been (worth roughly two wins per year) in his early 30s, a risky move for someone only one year removed from a 4-14 season with a 5.19 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Minnesota's putting a lot of stock in his 2014 and seemingly ignoring the seven years that preceded it, which obviously isn't wise.

The Twins were incredibly lucky with Hughes last year, getting a Cy Young-caliber year out of him when they had no reason to expect one (and at the modest price of $8 million to boot). They still had him under contract for this year and next, however, so there was no need to re-sign him now. Pitchers are incredibly fragile, and a lot could happen between now and the end of 2016. Even if he doesn't get hurt, he could still just as easily turn back into a pumpkin. When will teams learn that extending older players multiple years away from free agency is a terrible idea? (think the Phillies regret doing it with Ryan Howard?)

Hughes has had one great season and will probably never pitch that well again, as there's no way he comes close to replicating his 11.63 K/BB ratio Steamer expects his ERA to rise nearly half a run in 2015 and for him to be about half as valuable as he was last year). The best-case scenario for Santana is that he'll be a league average pitcher over 200 innings, but even that seems unlikely. Steamer projects his ERA to rise nearly half a run next year to 4.41, which would be very mediocre. Considering his ERA rose almost three-quarters of a run from 2013 to 2014 despite his shift to the National League, projecting further regression in his return to the American League seems reasonable.

Since last winter, Minnesota has committed 14 years (excluding options) and around $170 million to Hughes, Santana, and Ricky Nolasco. Investing so much in a trio of pedestrian pitchers, all of whom will be well into their thirties by the time their contracts expire, is going to make it difficult for the mid-market Twins to escape the cellar of the AL Central, where they've been comfortably residing for the past four years. It's hard enough to buy your way up the ladder with perennially thin free agent markets, and even harder still when your acquisitions weren't that good to begin with.

Hunter Headed Back to Minnesota

Hunter's not the player he used to be, but that's okay (HuffingtonPost)

Torii Hunter, a Minnesota Twin from 1997 through 2007, is returning to the team that made him a first round draft pick in 1993.

Hunter has slowed considerably during the intervening time with the Angels and Tigers, going from a Gold Glove center fielder in 2008 to an everyday right fielder and seeing more time at DH. Now 39, he's lost most of the speed that once made him a perennial Gold Glover and 20 stolen base threat.

His hitting skills have remained largely intact, however, though he doesn't walk as much as he used to and the home runs come less frequently. Like most players at this stage in their careers, Hunter's a hitter in decline, as all three of his slash stats dropped in each of the last two seasons. He projects to be a league average hitter at best next year (playing half his games at Target Field won't help), and for $10.5 million that's not so bad, especially given the dearth of available impact bats. Seeing as though he was barely above replacement level last year, however, he seems unlikely to produce the 1.5 WAR needed to earn his paycheck.

That said, the Twins aren't going to be contenders in 2015, so who really cares if they overpay Hunter by a few million bucks? Their main motive in signing a 39 year-old right fielder/DH wasn't to make their team better--if he does that's merely a bonus.

No, Minneosta made Hunter a Twin again because 2015 will be his 19th season, and very possibly his last. He was very popular in Minnesota and has a lot of sentimental value to the team. Even though he's no longer a star, he still provides some name value and a familiar face for a rebuilding franchise that doesn't have many besides Joe Mauer.

And if he retires after next year, at least he will retire as a Minnesota Twin,

2014 HR Derby Teams

Stanton, who competed in 2012, is my favorite to win this year's event (RantSports)

With baseball's Home Run Derby scheduled to take place tomorrow night at Target Field in Minnesota, here's my preview of the two home run derby teams:

AL
Jose Bautista (captain)
An All-Star for he fifth straight year, Bautista's continued to add his to burgeoning home run total, which has been exceeded only by Miguel Cabrera since the start of the 2010 season. With 17 dingers on the year he's tied for seventh among major league outfielders tied with National Leaguers Justin Upton and Andrew McCutchen. It's too bad Bautista's teammate Edwin Encarnacion is injured, but Bautista's not a bad consolation prize.

Yoenis Cespedes
The defending champion is back to defend his title. Surprisingly the first-time All-Star is not having a noteworthy season power-wise, as his 14 home runs are bettered by two teammates (Josh Donaldson and Brandon Moss--both with 20) and are tied for 13th among major league outfielders, fewer than Marlon Byrd, Michael Brantley and Marcell Ozuna and as many as Charlie Blackmon, Khris Davis, and Mike Morse, among others. Of course, I still wouldn't bet against Cespedes winning the thing again.

Josh Donaldson
This time last year, few people outside Oakland knew who Donaldson was. Now he's the starting third baseman for the American League in the All-Star Game and participating in the home run derby, well-deserving of both honors. His 20 home runs lead all third basemen and rank sixth in the American League.

Brian Dozier
Though his power has faded lately (only one long ball since June 14th), Dozier's 16 bombs are easily the most of any second baseman, as no one else has more than 13 at the keystone this year. Almost at his career high of 18, he has twice as many as any other Twin--eight more than Josh Willingham--and while he was passed over for the All-Star Game at least he'll get the opportunity to put on a show for his hometown fans.  With more home runs at Target Field (9) than any other Twin has hit all season, he's been Minnesota's best power source and most worthy representative for the event.

Adam Jones
Coming off back-to-back 30 homer seasons, Jones has continued to provide plenty of pop for the Baltimore Orioles, a club with more home runs than every team except the Toronto Blue Jays.  Jones, with his 16 home runs--tenth among big league outfielders--has been a big part of that, especially given the disappointing performances of Chris Davis and JJ Hardy and season-ending injury to Matt Wieters.

Notable exceptions: Nelson Cruz, Jose Abreu, Miguel Cabrera

NL
Troy Tulowitzki (captain)
The Senior Circuit's leading All-Star vote-getter is also its home run leader with 21 and slugging percentage leader at .613. Of course, Coors Field has played a large role in that production, with two-thirds of his home runs coming at home, where his slugging percentage has been almost 300 points higher than it's been on the road. Still, that doesn't diminish the terrific season he's been having so far, one that's made him an early favorite to take home his first MVP award.

Todd Frazier
After going yard 19 times in each of the past two seasons, Frazier's already done so 18 times in 2014, tops among National League third basemen. The first-time All-Star has more home runs than any third baseman besides Josh Donaldson, who's also competing in the derby but on the American League side, and more than any of his Reds teammates as well.

Justin Morneau
Though Morneau fell short in the NL Final Vote to Anthony Rizzo after taking an early lead in the polls, he still gets to make a return to Minnesota as one of the five members of the NL home run squad. Morneau isn't the most deserving selection, as his 13 home runs have been exceeded by 16 first basemen (including Mark Reynolds, Ryan Howard, and Lucas Duda) but he's a sentimental one. And if he can't go back to the Twin cities as an All-Star, I'm fine having him there on the derby team. That said, if given the choice I'd much rather see a Pedro Alvarez or Paul Goldschmidt in his stead.

Yasiel Puig
Puig's 12 home runs don't jump off the page, but the way he hits them sure does. Power is only a part of Puig's all-around game, but few hit balls farther or with more flair than he does.
And seeing as how the first-time All-Star is only 23, I'm sure this will be just the first of many derby appearances for the National League's answer to Mike Trout. Even if he doesn't do much tomorrow night, I'm still stoked to see him in his first All-Star Game on Tuesday.

Giancarlo Stanton
The Senior Circuit's home run and RBI leader was made for an event like this. Finally healthy after two injury-plagued seasons, Stanton's slugging his way to a potential 40-homer season and just earned his second All-Star nod in three years. One of the rare players who can hit the ball out of any stadium, Stanton shouldn't have much trouble clearing the fences at Target Field. He's my prediction to win.

Notable exceptions: Rizzo, McCutchen, Upton

Sox Sweep Twins

Napoli was the hero today with his seventh home run of the year

The Red Sox capped their three-game sweep of the Minnesota Twins in dramatic fashion today, overcoming a 1-0 deficit in the bottom of the tenth with back-to-back home runs.

Kyle Gibson and John Lackey squared off in what has been one of the best pitching duels of the season thus far. Gibson delivered seven innings of one-hit ball for the Twins, yielding no walks and striking out eight. Lackey was even sharper, keeping Minnesota off the board for nine innings and fanning nine.

The Twins finally broke through in the top of the tenth when Chris Parmelee launched his fourth home run of the season off Koji Uehara. The go-ahead tater capped a three-hit day for the Minnesota right fielder, who broke the scoreless tie with a two-strike, two-out line drive into the bullpen that just barely escaped the grasp of Brock Holt.

The heart of Boston's order wasted little time mounting a comeback in the bottom half versus Casey Freri. Dustin Pedroia flew out to lead off the frame, but that would be the last out Fieri would get. Bona fide Twin-killer David Ortiz followed with a game-tying solo shot wrapped around Pesky's Pole to put a charge into the Fenway crowd, and Mike Napoli sent them home happy with a wall-scraping smash to dead center. When it landed in the batter's eye, the Sox had themselves a rare come-from-behind extra inning victory, not to mention an even more unlikely sweep in which they scored only five runs to Minnesota's two.

It was fitting that, on an afternoon when the bats fell silent on both sides, all three runs scored on long balls that weren't particularly long. Put together, all three probably couldn't have cleared Fenway's green fences by more than ten feet. They were the definition of just-enough, in a game where two runs turned out to be just enough.

Nolasco to Twins

Nolasco provides pitching help to a team that desperately needs it

Last night the Minnesota Twins handed out the biggest free agent deal to a starting pitcher in this young offseason by singing Ricky Nolasco for four years and $49 million. Given the eye-popping amounts of money that have been handed out to pedestrian and slightly above average players in recent days, that sounds about right and dare I say it (gulp), reasonable.

The contract, which includes a vesting option for a fifth year, is the largest ever given to a free agent by the Twins. It reflects more on Minnesota's need for rotation help more than it does Nolasco's pitching skills. Twins starting pitchers posted the worst ERA, fewest innings and fewest quality starts in baseball. And while Nolasco is a number three starter at best, he'll provide stability and league average skills to a rotation that could use a healthy dose of both.

Nolasco has been notorious for never pitching as well as his peripherals suggest he should. His inconsistency throughout the course of a season is maddening, as he can look like one of the best pitchers in some days but get shelled in others. What's equally frustrating is that he never took the leap many expected after his 2008 season, in which the then-25 year-old went 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 4.43 K/BB ratio. Instead he regressed into a subpar pitcher, posting a 4.68 ERA (87 ERA+) and 1.32 WHIP for mediocre Marlins teams over the next four years.

2013 marked a return to form for Nolasco, who managed his best numbers since his 2008 breakout. Splitting time with the Marlins and Dodgers, he maintained a 3.70 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in nearly 200 innings of work. He pitched well for LA down the stretch, helping them win the NL West.

Hopfully Nolasco enjoyed the taste of pitching in meaningful baseball games, because he doesn't figure to experience too many of those in 2014. The Twins are in rebuilding mode, having lost 96 games in each of their past two years and 99 games the year before that. Spending close to $50 million on an innings-eater isn't the best use of their resources, but then again that's exactly what Theo Epstein did to acquire Edwin Jackson a year ago. All Nolasco has to do to earn his keep is provide around two wins above replacement per year, something he came close to accomplishing in each of the past two seasons per bWAR (and has easily exceeded per fWAR).

That might prove to be difficult for a lifetime National Leaguer transitioning to the American League, though. I'd expect Nolasco's numbers to regress closer to his 2009-2012 levels, with an ERA over four, probably closer to four and a half. That's still an improvement for Minnesota, just not the kind that's going to make much of a difference without a complement of other moves or young guys stepping up.

Given that Jhonny Peralta just made about the same amount of money, this deal doesn't look quite so bad. The Twins addressed a need by upgrading their rotation, but still have a long way to go before getting back to their winning ways from last decade. I want to think their money would have been better spent elsewhere, but then again there's not a whole lot they could've spent it on.

AL Central Preview

1st Place--Detroit Tigers
2012 Record: 88-74
2012 Pythagorean: 87-75
2013 Projected: 92-70
The reigning American League champs should have no trouble winning their third straight division title in 2013. On paper, they're clearly the best team in the division and only got better over the offseason. Victor Martinez returns from a lost 2012 to join Motown mashers Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder in the heart of the order. Letting Delmon Young walk is addition by subtraction, whereas signing Torii Hunter is simply pure addition (unless the 37 year-old falls off a cliff). Austin Jackson quietly blossomed into one of the sport's top center fielders after adopting a more patient approach at the plate and could have an Andrew McCutchen-kind-of-year. I think Alex Avila bounces back after hitting .243 with nine home runs last year, but don't see him returning to 2011 form (neither will Jhonny Peralta). The Tigers have the best pitcher on the planet in Justin Verlander and a strong rotation to back him up. Max Scherzer got off to a rocky start last year but still posted the best strikeout rate in the majors last year. What's more, he compiled a sparkling 2.53 ERA after June 13th, better than Verlander's 2.61 mark over the same stretch. I say it every spring, but this might be the year he finally takes the leap. Detroit re-upped with Anibal Sanchez for five years and $88 million, which is a bit pricey for a number three but not bad considering he's pitched about as well as Zack Greinke (who got much more than that) over the past three seasons. Don't worry about Doug Fister's spring training woes--he'll be fine. Overall, the Tigers are deeper and more balanced than last year, so I'd be shocked if anyone else wins the AL Central.

2nd Place--Chicago White Sox
2012 Record: 85-77
2012 Pythagorean: 88-74
2013 Projected: 83-79
Robin Ventura's White Sox spent most of the season in first place, only to falter at the finish line and cough up the division in the season's final week. Chicago had a quiet offseason, letting Kevin Youkilis and A.J. Pierzynski walk but keeping the rest of their roster intact. Youk will be missed at the hot corner, esepcially since his replacement (Jeff Keppinger) offers little power and average defense at best. Pierzynski's departure opens the door for Tyler Flowers to play behind the plate everyday and infuse some youth into a veteran lineup. 37 year-old Paul Konerko has shown no signs of slowing down and should continue to be a force in the heart of Chicago's order along with Alex Rios and Adam Dunn, both of whom rebounded from miserable 2011s. In the outfield, Dayan Viciedo has 30-homer potential and Alejandro de Aza is a rock solid leadoff hitter/center fielder. The rotation is headed by two aces--2012 breakout Chris Sale and former Cy Young winner Jake Peavy--both of whom must sustain their success if Chicago is going to have any chance at keeping up with the Tigers this year. The oft-injured Peavy, 31, is hardly a sure thing given that he averaged just 17 starts per year from 2009-2011. Sale, soon to be 24, is a Verducci effect candidate after approaching 200 innings in his first full season as a starter. John Danks, Gavin Floyd, and Jose Quintana round out the rest of the rotation with Hector Santiago ready to step in if needed. The bullpen looks good for the most part, but Addison Reed needs to be more consistent if he wants to hang on to his closer's gig.

3rd Place--Cleveland Indians
2012 Record: 68-94
2012 Pythagorean: 64-98
2013 Projected: 80-82
Everything that could go wrong did go wrong for the Tribe last year, but they enter 2013 with significantly more talent. They upgraded their outfield outfield by signing Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, signing slugging corner infielder Mark Reynolds to a cheap one-year deal and trading for Trevor Bauer, who projects to be a future ace. Cleveland is stacked up the middle: catcher Carlos Santana is primed for a breakout in his age 27 season, Jason Kipnis and Asdrubal Cabrera are a great double-play tandem, and Bourn is the best defensive center fielder in baseball not named Mike Trout. All four could be All-Stars this year, and it seems safe to say the Indians won't finish second-to-last in runs scored like they did last year. Of course,  it doesn't really matter how many more times they cross home plate if Cleveland finishes dead last in ERA again. I can't say I love their rotation, which lacks a true number one and two, but the good news is that Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Tomlin have nowhere to go but up. If they can at least pitched as well as they did in 2011, then Cleveland will be in much better shape. Zach McAllister showed some promise as a rookie last year and could be a nice boon if he continues to develop. With veteran skipper Terry Francona at the helm, Cleveland now has one of the best managers of the past decade at the reins. The Indians aren't talented enough to surpass the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central but have the pieces to move above .500 for the first time since 2007.

4th Place--Kansas City Royals
2012 Record: 72-90
2012 Pythagorean: 74-88
2013 Projected: 77-85
Kansas City is loaded with young talent but made a critical blunder in trading future superstar Wil Myers for James Shields, a number two pitcher with a career 4.67 ERA pitching outside of a dome. He's not going to be the difference-maker GM Dayton Moore is expecting, so KC will have to rely on continued growth and maturity from its young core of position players. Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar, Salvador Perez, and Eric Hosmer in particular all need to be better than they were last year (so does Jeff Francoeur, who followed up his strong Royals debut by reminding everyone just how bad he really is). Billy Butler and Alex Gordon just have to keep doing their thing. Whereas the Royals' starting lineup is teeming with potential and upside, their starting rotation is staffed by so-so veterans like Bruce Chen, Ervin Santana, and Jeremy Guthrie. Shields is a lock to provide 220 quality innings, but I see him taking a substantial step back after moving out of the pitcher's haven known as Tropicana Field. Kansas City boasts a bullpen full of live arms, none of whom seem capable of developing into usable starting pitchers. The Royals could have a winning season if everything goes their way, but that's not going to be enough to snap their 27-year playoff drought.

5th Place--Minnesota Twins
2012 Record: 66-96
2012 Pythagorean: 68-94
2013 Projected: 67-95
The Twins were the Junior Circuit's worst team in 2011 and 2012, but lucky for them the Houston Astros switched leagues and will spare them from claiming that dubious distinction for a third straight season. Thanks to a  Harmon Killebrew-type year from slugger Josh Willingham and rebounds from Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Ryan Doumit, the Twins fielded a decent lineup last year. Speedy outfielders Denard Span and Ben Revere will be missed, especially on defense. The Twins are never going to put up big offensive numbers so long as their playing half their games at Target Field. They need to be built around strong starting pitching, an asset that was in short supply last year. Breakout Scott Diamond was the only hurler to make more than 20 starts or complete more than 110 innings. Ron Gardenhire is counting on Diamond to be the ace of the staff, but Diamond is a mid-rotation starter at best. Furthermore, his complete and utter inability to miss bats (4.7 K/9 last year) makes him a likely bust candidate. Unlike last year, he figures to have some help in the rotation. GM Terry Ryan acquired Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey, and Kevin Correia to fill out the staff, and while none of those names are exciting at least they are all capable big league pitchers. That's not saying much, but it represents a clear upgrade over last year's soft-tossing crew of Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, and Carl Pavano. Minnesota fans might as well start thinking about football season, because their baseball team isn't going anywhere anytime soon.