Young Bows Out

Young is leaving the game before his performance starts to suffer (ESPN)

It's fitting that two days after Lance Berkman called it quits, Michael Young is following him out the door. Fitting because they were both gifted hitters who made their names playing 257 miles from each other in Texas: Berkman in Houston and Young in Arlington.

Born eight months apart in 1976, they retired just two days apart in 2014, each at the age of 37 after enduring back-to-back disappointing seasons. But whereas Berkman was more or less forced out by injuries, Young is choosing to leave the game on his own terms after playing 147 games for the Phillies and Dodgers last year and batting a respectable .279 with a 102 OPS+.

Even still, their careers overlapped pretty well, which is funny considering how different they were as ballplayers. Berkman was a native Texan and a lumbering, switch-hitting slugger who played first base and left field, while Young hailed from California and was more of a slap-hitting shortstop. It's surprising, then, just how well some of their career totals match up:

Berkman: 1,879 G, 1,146 R, 422 2B, 86 SB, .293 Avg, 3,485 TB, six All-Stars
Young: 1,970 G, 1,137 R, 441 2B, 90 SB, .300 Avg, 3,491 TB, seven All-Stars

And here are some other similarities:

-Berkman debuted in 1999, one year before Young played his first big league game
-Both played at least 100 games at four different positions (not counting DH) and were very poor fielders
-After having somewhat down years in 2010, both bounced back for one last big season in 2011, when each made the All-Star team. Berkman finished seventh in the NL MVP voting while Young placed eighth in the AL race
-Both were traded away from their Texas teams and finished their careers elsewhere (though Berkman eventually made his way back to Texas to play for the Rangers)
-Neither won an MVP or Silver Slugger
-Both played in two World Series, including the 2011 Fall Classic when Berkman's Cardinals beat Young's Rangers in seven games

But that's enough about Berkman. I haven't written extensively about Young since he got his 2,000th career hit back in the summer of 2011--his last great season. He batted .338 with 106 RBI--both career highs--while sharing the major league lead for hits (213) with Boston's Adrian Gonzalez. At the time, he seemed to have an outside chance at 3,000 hits.

Then the following year, at age 35, his numbers dropped dramatically. His batting average plummeted more than 60 points, his OBP nearly 70, and his slugging by more than 100. Sensing the end was near, Texas traded him to the Phillies with cash for a pitching prospect (Lisalverto Bonilla) and a nothing reliever (Josh Lindblom).

There was hope that Young might be able to revive his career in Philadelphia, but all he did there was round out an aging infield of washed-up stars that already included Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Young's numbers were almost identical to his 2012 production, and at the end of August the Phillies dealt him to the Dodgers for a pitching prospect (Rob Rasmussen) with a 6.46 ERA in Triple-A. Young was lucky to jump off the sinking Phillies ship and climb aboard the contending Dodgers just in time for the playoffs, but his last shot at that ever-elusive World Series ring was derailed by an old nemesis (St. Louis) in the NLCS. Young didn't do much to help matters there, coming up empty in all seven of his plate appearances.

So rather than hang around to pad his hit totals and chase a ring, Young called it a day. He can protect his .300 career batting average and leave long before he hits rock bottom. It's better this way.

A couple months from now Derek Jeter may have wished he'd done the same thing. I bring up Jeter in part because he is another shortstop in his late 30s (soon to be 40, actually), but also because I want to call attention to just how similar they were for a full decade. Check out how close they were from 2002--Young's first full season--through 2012--Jeter's most recent (and probably last) full season.

Jeter: 7,644 PA  1,153 R  2,105 H  336 2B  156 HR  .309/.376/.435  .811 OPS 114 OPS+
Young: 7,616 PA  1,028 R  2,134 H  396 2B 166 HR .304/.350/.447 .796 OPS 106 OPS+

I'm really surprised Jeter doesn't show up as one of Young's comps on his B-R page. They were very durable. They also struck out a good amount and bounced into a lot of double plays. Defensively they were about the same, with Young costing his team 8.6 wins and 126 runs with his glove while Jeter cost the Yankees 7.8 wins and 160 runs. Jeter, of course, was a much better baserunner with almost three times as many steals, and compensated for Young's power edge by getting on base more often. The point is that Young was very nearly Jeter's equal as a hitter for a long time. Take away 2002 (when Young had a .690 OPS) and 2012 (.682), and he comes out ahead.

That said, it can not be ignored the degree to which Young's numbers were enhanced by playing half his games in Texas. Like many hitters, Young got a big boost from his home ballpark. He batted a George Brett-esque .320/.368/.479 in Arlington, and if he had hit that well everywhere else we'd probably be discussing him as a serious Hall of Fame contender. As it were, his road OPS is more than 100 points lower.

For that reason (and others), Young was simply not as good as his numbers suggest. FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference agree he was worth around 25 WAR for his career, which leaves him well short of the Hall of Fame. JAWs has him as the 92nd best shortstop of all time, which seems baffling considering a lot of his counting numbers rank within the position's top 20. On the surface, a .300 career hitter who played the vast majority of his games at shortstop, second base and third base (all premium positions) would appear to be a very valuable player. Where was the disagreement between perception and reality coming from?

For starters, Young's offense really wasn't worth that much--about 60 runs for his career according to FanGraphs. Taking everything into account, that makes sense. Yes, Young got a lot of hits (six seasons with more than 200) and hit for some power (almost 700 extra base hits), but he didn't walk that much (typically around 50 times per season) so his on-base percentage of .346 is merely good, not great. Most of his power was in the form of doubles which obviously are not as valuable as home runs, so his career .141 ISo and .342 wOBA aren't very impressive either.

When he did get on he was a slightly above average baserunner, but any value he provided there was canceled out by his propensity for grounding into double plays. He also struck out quite a bit for somebody who never hit 25 home runs in a season. Throw in his friendly home park and the high-scoring era in which he played, and his numbers aren't anything special, as his .265 True Average and 104 wRC+/OPS+ indicate. He was only 61 runs better than the average hitter over the course of his career, which works out to be about 4.36 runs above average per year.

Then add to the mix his subpar glovework (2008 Gold Glove notwithstanding) which subtracts about a win per season from his value (two in his later years), and we're left with a slightly better than average hitter who has some nice counting numbers.

I don't mean to take anything away from Young. He was a good player for many years, a batting champion who set Rangers franchise records in numerous categories. But he's not a Hall of Famer (even though five of his ten best statistical comps are, and he probably would have been had he played in the 1920s or 30s), and not as good as some of his numbers suggest. Young is a perfect example of how advanced metrics and analysis can paint a more complete picture than those old-school statistics (like hits, RBI and batting average) ever can.

Can Berkman Bounce Back?

Berkman's getting older, but he can still hit (KeyeTV)

The Texas Rangers, suddenly short on offense after the free agent departures of Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli, replaced some of their lost firepower by signing Lance Berkman to a one-year contract worth $10 million plus a vesting option for 2014. The six-time All-Star will serve as his new team's Designated Hitter in the wake of Michael Young's being traded to the Philadelphia Phillies last month.

Berkman may never get another major league contract, so if this is the end of the line for him then his career has come full circle. This deal brings the Texas native back to the Lone Star State, where he was born, raised, and educated before the hometown Houston Astros drafted him out of Rice University in 1997. Berkman debuted with the big club two years later and spent the first dozen seasons of his big league career as an Astro. One of Houston's Killer B's along with Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Carlos Beltran and Derek Bell, Berkman helped lead the team to four playoff appearances during his time there, including the franchise's only World Series appearance in its 50-year history. The starstruck 'Stros were no match for the Chicago White Sox, who took a cue from the Red Sox and ended their own interminable championship drought with a Series sweep. Berkman was one of the few Astros who offered any resistance, batting .385 and knocking in six of the 14 runs his team scored in the series.

The nucleus of that team aged out and Houston hasn't been to the playoffs since. Bagwell never played again. Biggio deteriorated into a replacement level player and hung on just long enough to get his 3,000th career hit. Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte stuck around for another year before returning to the Yankees. Morgan Ensberg fell apart in his thirties, as so many ballplayers do.  But has his team crumbled around him, Berkman soldiered on.  He inherited the first base job from Bagwell, one of the finest to ever man the position, and continued to be a force in Houston's lineup until 2010.

That summer, with Berkman scuffling and the team trying to go in a different direction, Astros GM Ed Wade dealt him to the New York Yankees the day of the trading deadline even though NY had its own switch-hitting first baseman in Mark Teixeira. Berkman followed Roy Oswalt, who'd also been sent packing to the northeast (Philadelphia) two days earlier, out the door. The trade was bittersweet for Berkman, who desperately wanted to win but had spent his entire career with Houston up to that point. But the Astros were going nowhere, headed for another losing season, and the Yankees were just nine months removed from winning the World Series.  Berkman never seemed comfortable in the Big Apple and his offensive woes persisted.

Trading Berkman and Oswalt marked the onset of a rebuilding process in Houston. In the time since, the club's front office bulldozed the roster by unloading the rest of their established veterans (Michael Bourn, Carlos Lee, Wandy Rodriguez, Hunter Pence, and Brett Myers). In their two full seasons without Berkman, the Astros are the worst team in baseball and have lost twice as many games as they've won.

Many wrote him off after 2010, when he looked finished at the age of 34 and endured the worst full season as a professional. He struggled mightily at the plate, hitting just .248 with 14 home runs and 58 RBI between the Astros and Yankees. Some doubted he'd be able to find a job for 2011.

But after accepting a one-year, eight million dollar contract from the Cardinals (nearly a 50 percent pay cut), and moving to right field out of respect for Albert Pujols, Big Puma committed himself to improving his fitness routine over the offseason.  Noticeably trimmer and in the best shape of his life, Berkman returned to form in 2011. He got off to a great start with his new team and never looked back, finishing the season with a .301/.412/.547 triple slash line that produced the third highest OPS+ in the league (behind league MVP Ryan Braun and runner-up Matt Kemp). The NL Comeback Player of the Year also belted 31 homers, plated 94 runs, scored 90 times and drew 92 free passes while protecting Pujols and Matt Holliday in the Cardinals lineup. He finished seventh in the MVP race and went on to play an integral role in the team's World Series championship that fall. Berkman delivered several key hits and was especially lethal in the Fall Classic, batting .423/.516/.577 as St. Louis prevailed over Texas in seven games.

Not surprisingly, the Redbirds picked up his $12 million option for 2012, but Berkman went bust when he took four separate trips to the Disabled List and appeared in just 32 games. Once again, his future looked uncertain. When he grounded out in his final at-bat on the last day of the regular season, it seemed very possible that we had seen the last of Lance Berkman in a major league uniform. He was left off the Cardinals postseason roster. He watched from the sidelines as St. Louis came within one win of returning to the Series, only to squander their 3-1 lead over the eventual World Series champions and go home empty handed. He considered retiring.

Now, in a twist of irony, Berkman will suit up for a team still chasing its first World Series championship in part because of the damage he inflicted on them two Octobers ago. Funny how that happens in sports.

Berkman will be 37 in February, the same age Bagwell was in his injury-wracked final season, an age when most players are deep into the twilight of their careers. It goes without saying that he may not have much left in the tank. He's playing on a bum right knee that required two surgeries last year, adding to the host of leg issues that have prevented him from reaching 500 at-bats in a season since 2008. Given his age and injury history, at this stage in his career he's all but guaranteed to miss a good chunk of time.  Even if he manages to avoid the Disabled List, the Texas heat figures to wear him down over the course of a long season.

Signing Berkman is a calculated risk, but could prove to be a massive bargain if he has another renaissance season. Moving to the most hitting-friendly venue outside of Colorado will boost his numbers, or at least offset some of his age and injury-related decline. DH'ing full time should limit his injury risk and keep his body fresh. Plus it's always nice batting in the heart of a loaded lineup. Ron Washington has already said he's going to bat his new DH third to replace Hamilton's spot in the order. That means he'll have plenty of RBI opportunities with Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus setting the table for him. He'll also have Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz, and possibly Justin Upton (?) batting behind him. Berkman's primed for a comeback.

So what can the Rangers (and fantasy owners) expect from Berkman in 2013? His age definitely worries me, but not enough to label him "washed up." 37 is old in baseball years, but not too old to be a productive Designated Hitter, as Paul Molitor, Jim Thome and Edgar Martinez have proven. Father Time catches up to everyone at some point, but Berkman was a beast at 35 and hit well enough in limited action last year to suggest that his skills are still intact.  Even taking his age and medical issues into account, I feel confident saying he will rebound this year if his body holds up.

Still, it's tricky trying to forecast what Berkman will do in 2013. Bill James projects him to play 134 games, club 21 home runs and bat .273/.389/.485 (.369 wOBA).  FanGraphs is equally optimistic, predicting him to sock 19 dingers and bat .279/.384/.470 (.366 wOBA) in 123 games. Texas has to be thrilled if it can squeeze that kind of production out of Berkman. Last year, the team's DHs (mainly Napoli and Michael Young) batted a disappointing .265/.323/.432 with 18 homers and 78 RBI. If healthy, Berkman is a good bet to reach or exceed those numbers. I'll split the difference and peg him for 20 bombs, 80 RBI, and a .275 batting average. His ceiling is 2011 and his floor is 2012; I'm guessing he winds up somewhere in the middle.

He's definitely worth a spot in AL-only leagues and I'd take a flier on him in mixed leagues. Offense is hard to come by these days, and you need to get it where you can. Even if it's in the form of a 37 year-old playing on one leg.

Michael Young Gets 2,000th Career Hit

Last night, a typical 102 degree summer night in Arlington, Texas, Michael Young notched his 2,000th career hit against Cleveland Indians' starter Josh Tomlin.  Facing an 0-2 count in the bottom of the seventh, Young swung on an 86 mile-an-hour change-up and dribbled the ball down the third base line.  Rookie Lonnie Chisenhall charged the slow roller, barehanded it and whipped it across the diamond to Shelly Duncan, but Young beat the throw easily and had himself an infield single, his second hit of the evening.  A banner was unfurled beneath the center field scoreboard to commemorate his achievement, the 37,000 fans on hand gave him an extended ovation, and he took a moment to acknowledge the Arlington faithful by waving his helmet.  To top it off the Rangers came back the next inning to win the game 5-3 and maintain sole possession of first place in the AL West for another day.

2,000 down, 1,000 to go.

Since Michael Young broke in with the club back in 2000, Texas has trotted out star-studded lineups each and every year.  Over the past decade, Ranger managers have penciled in Rafael Palmeiro, Ivan Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Alfonso Soriano, Sammy Sosa, Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, Andruw Jones, and Adrian Beltre, among others, to form an impressive roll call of hitting talent from the 2000s.  But Young has been the one mainstay, the career Ranger and face of the franchise through its disappointing lows and more recent highs.  Through last place finishes and an AL pennant he has managed to stay healthy and provide steady production while playing second, short, third, and DH.  A career .303 hitter and Gold Glove winner, Young won a batting title and led the league in hits in 2005, earned seven All-Star nods and helped lead Texas to the World Series last year.  He's not just a singles hitter, either, as nearly 600 of his hits have gone for extra bases.

Young's certainly enjoyed a fine career, and if he can continue to produce for a few more seasons he'll make a legitimate Hall of Fame case (better than comp Johnny Damon, also pursuing 3,000).  My question is this; can he hang on for 1,000 more hits?

Right now I'd rate his chances as possible at best, and I don't think he'll make it.  He's already 34 years old and will turn 35 in October (by comparison Derek Jeter, the rich man's Michael Young, was three years younger when he got to 2,000) so time isn't exactly on his side.  He's on pace to finish the season with about 2,065 hits or so, meaning he'd still be more than 900 away.  Assuming he plays until he's 40, five more seasons, he would need to average more than 180 hits per season, an extremely difficult task for someone about to enter the decline phase in his career and become even more prone to wearing down during the brutal Texas summers. 

On the bright side, he's showed no signs of slowing down by hitting a career high .336 this year and leading the league in games played (no surprise for a man who's averaged 156 games played since 2002 and led the league in 2006).  He's very durable and looks like a strong bet to age well.  In addition, skipper Ron Washington has cemented him as the full-time DH, a move that should help him stay healthy and slow his decline.  If he can hang around until he's age 42 or 43, he'll have a great shot at reaching the magical 3,000 mark, but I find it hard to believe Texas would give many at-bats to an aging DH when there will be many other players clamoring for the slot during a scorching August night.

A night just like the one Michael Young got his 2,000th base knock.