Sox Re-Sign Ortiz

Big Papi is back with the Red Sox

David Ortiz re-upped with Red Sox after signing a two year, $26 million deal that could be worth an additional $4 million in incentives.

Unlike some of Boston's more recent deals (Carl Crawford, Daisuke Matsuzaka, J.D. Drew, John Lackey, et. al.), this transaction is money well spent. Even though Big Papi turns 37 later in the month, the same age as Alex Rodriguez, he has been able to avoid debilitating injuries and has not displayed any evidence of decline. As he enters his eleventh season with the Red Sox he is aging as gracefully as Ted Williams, Dwight Evans and  Manny Ramirez did before him. He is still far and away the best Designated Hitter in baseball. His skills remain intact, his batting eye is sharp and his bat is still as potent as ever. His triple slash stats have increased in each of the past three seasons and he's reclaimed his status as one of the game's top hitters. Over that time he ranks sixth in slugging percentage and fifth in OPS, OPS+ and ISO in the same tier as elite offensive producers Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Ryan Braun, Josh Hamilton, Jose Bautista, and Albert Pujols.

In 2012 he batted a robust .318/.415/.611 before an Achilles injury limited to just one game after July 16th. He also walked more than he struck out (posting the lowest K rate of his career), swatted his 400th career home run and made his eighth All-Star team as Boston's lone representative to the Midsummer Classic in Kansas City. The team's only holdover from the unforgettable 2004 World Series winners should continue to be an intimidating presence in the heart of John Farrell's order next season. At an age when most of his peers have retired or been reduced to reserve roles, Ortiz is still a lineup centerpiece and will be counted on to provide big numbers in 2013 as well as his signature veteran leadership. A .300-30-100 season seems well within his reach if he can remain healthy.

The Sox are also expected to bring back Cody Ross, an unexpected bright spot who cracked 57 extra base hits and posted an .807 OPS while being one of the few positive clubhouse presences last season.

25 Bold(ish) Predictions Review

A review of some bold(ish) predictions I made at the end of August.

1. Mike Trout will not win the AL MVP award: CORRECT (probably)
Trout and his 10.7 bWAR deserve it, but I think Miguel Cabrera will take home the trophy after becoming the first player in 45 years to win the Triple Crown.

2. Houston wins fewer than 50 games this year: WRONG
The Astros finished the season strong, playing .500 ball in September/October to end up with 55 victories. Have fun in the American League next year, Houston!

3. Baltimore is finally going to hit the skids: WRONG
Not only did the Orioles make the playoffs for the first time since 1997, but they nearly stole the division from the Yankees down the stretch and gave New York's offense fits during the ALDS. I'd be shocked if they finish above .500 next year, though.

4. Hanley Ramirez reaches 30 home runs for the first time since 2008: WRONG
HanRam launched his 24th and final long ball of the season on September 3rd, failing to go deep in the month of games that followed.

5. Justin Verlander repeats as AL Cy Young champion: CORRECT (probably)
I'm pretty confident that Verlander will win after posting near identical numbers to the ones he put up in 2011. David Price, Jered Weaver, Chris Sale, and Felix Hernandez all have strong cases, but Verlander is the guy.

6. The Red Sox avoid their first losing season since 1997: WRONG
Next question.

7. Josh Beckett (5-12, 5.21 ERA at the time) is going to turn his season around with the Dodgers: CORRECT
This one was a no-brainer. In his seven starts with the Dodgers, Beckett posted a nifty 2.93 ERA and fanned 38 batters in 43 innings of work. Expect that success to continue in 2013.

8. Bryce Harper goes 20/20: WRONG
The 19 year-old phenom just missed, finishing his sensational rookie year with 22 home runs and 18 stolen bases.

9. Josh Hamilton bats .300: WRONG
The 2010 AL MVP batted a career low .285.

10. Buster Posey knocks in 100 runs: CORRECT
The likely NL MVP amassed 103 RBI in 2012.

11. Nobody on the Houston Astros finishes with 15 home runs: WRONG
Justin Maxwell slugged 18 and Jed Lowrie blasted 16.

12. Joe Mauer gets traded: WRONG
Didn't happen.

13. Adam Dunn won't break Mark Reynolds' single season strikeout record: CORRECT
Dunn's 222 whiffs paced the majors, but fell three short of the Reynolds' record of futility. The Big Donkey also managed to keep his batting average above the Mendoza line by finishing the year at .204.

14. David Ortiz will not play again in 2012: CORRECT
Why bother?

15. Nobody in the NL will strike out more than 200 times: CORRECT
Dunn was the only player to pile up more than 200 K's, though Curtis Granderson came dangerously close with 195. Danny Espinosa "led" the Senior Circuit with 189.

16. Both Los Angeles teams make the playoffs: WRONG
Neither LA baseball team made the playoffs, which blows my mind given how stacked both of those rosters are. The Halos have the best rotation in baseball with Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, C.J. Wilson, and Ervin Santana, plus Trout, Albert Pujols, and Mark Trumbo. The Dodgers added HanRam, Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, Shane Victorino, and Carl Crawford to a team that already had Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Clayton Kershaw. It's fair to call both clubs underachievers after the Angels finished third in their division and the second place Dodgers wound up eight games behind the Giants.

17. Detroit will catch Chicago in the AL Central: CORRECT
The Tigers ended the season on a tear by winning eight of their final ten games, passing the White Sox and winning the division by three games. Chicago collapsed, dropping eleven of fifteen to close the season.

18. Eric Hosmer (.240/.310/.369) will get hot: WRONG
Seeing as how Hosmer's three rate stats only got worse (ended up at .232/.304/.359), he clearly did not catch fire in September.

19. The Reds will win 100 games and have the best record in baseball: WRONG
Cincinatti won 97 games and Washington had the best record in baseball. Neither made it beyond the first round.

20. The Braves blow their postseason birth, again: WRONG
Atlanta cruised to the NL Wild Card by winning 94 games. Unfortunately, a blown infield fly call in the play-in game against St. Louis brought a premature end to the Chipper Jones era.

For reasons unknown, I did not make a 21st or 22nd prediction.

23. Ichiro Suzuki leads AL position players in games played for the third year in a row: CORRECT
Suzuki played in all 162 games this season, a feat he's achieved four times in his illustrious career.

24. 23 year-old Madison Bumgarner finishes higher than rotation-mate Matt Cain on the NL Cy Young ballot: WRONG
Cain posted a superior winning percentage, ERA and WHIP while completing more innings. Most of their stats are indistinguishable, but Cain clearly had the better season.

25. Chipper Jones will draw a walk in the last at-bat of his career: WRONG
 The Cooperstown-bound third baseman legged out an infield single in his final plate appearance.

Overall: 9-for-23 (.391). I'll take it.

Ortiz On DL Again

After spending five weeks on the Disabled List from mid-July through last week, David Ortiz is back on the shelf with another Achilles injury.

That didn't take long.  But then again, it's just been that kind of year for the Red Sox.  As soon as the team got Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury back after the All-Star Break, Ortiz limped off the field July 16th, missed more than a month, and then played one measly game before getting hurt again.  And I should probably mention that in the 35 games without their cleanup hitter, Boston went 13-22 as their record plunged seven games below .500. The eight time All-Star reinjured his Achilles running out a double in his return last Friday night.  But at least Big Papi made the most of his one game by going 2-for-4 with a pair of RBI in Boston's 4-3 win over the Royals. 

Ortiz will receive treatment this week and says he hopes to play again sometime this season.  Don't bother.  Just take it slow and focus on rehabbing/preparing for 2013.  After all, what's the point of rushing through recovery to make it back for games that aren't going to matter?  Why risk further injury playing out the string in a meaningless September?  The Red Sox aren't going to make the playoffs, not after unloading Josh Beckett, Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to the Dodgers.  I know he's motivated because he's in a contract year and is seeking a multiyear deal, but it's not like he has anything to prove.  Even at the age of 36 he's still the league's premier DH and arguably its best hitter; his .611 SLG and 1.026 OPS are tops in the Junior Circuit.  He should cash out now, quit while he's ahead, because it's almost impossible to hit much better than that.  Besides, I'm sure Ben Cherington will be able to send some of that freed up $260 million Big Papi's way.  Isn't that what it's there for?

Ryan Kalish has been recalled from Pawtucket and will fill the vacant roster spot.

Sox Sweep Doubleheader, Eye Yankees

The Red Sox are playing so well, not even a hurricane can stop them.


It rained, it poured, and still the Red Sox won

Literally.

Yesterday Boston took both games of  doubleheader against the Oakland A's, persevering through three lengthy rain delays during the afternoon and evening to beat the Athletics 9-3 in the first game and 4-0 in the second as Hurricane Irene descended on the Boston area. 

The first game was a typical Bosox blowout; the Sox burst out of the gates and had nine runs up on the scoreboard before the sixth inning, and with Jon Lester on the bump that cushion was more than enough.  Each member of the starting nine notched at least one hit, run, or RBI as Beantown's Bruisers fattened up on Guillermo Moscoso's pitching before the storm rolled in and snuffed out both offenses for the rest of the game.  You know it's a rout when Jason Varitek can get in on the fun; the Captain cranked a two-run homer (his ninth of the year, or as many as Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez combined) and added an RBI single for good measure

The nightcap was less one-sided, but the feeble Athletics mustered just three hits, all singles, off Red Sox pitching and were shut out by Erik Bedard, Alfredo Aceves, Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon.  Bedard was shooting for his first win in a Boston uniform but a mid-game rain delay washed away his chances.  At the dish David Ortiz and Jarrod Saltalamacchia inflicted most of the damage; Big Papi, who had already roped two doubles in the first game, continued his big day by going 3-for-4 with a two-run blast (his 27th) over the Green Monster in the second inning. Salty plated the other two runs with a fourth inning groundout and a sixth inning double.

The pair of wins pushed Boston's division lead over the Yankees, who had their doubleheader rained out in Baltimore, to two games.  The Sox are off today and tomorrow, and then the Bronx Bombers (currently engaged in a doubleheader of their own with another game tomorrow) come to town for a midweek series.  If you merely looked at the division standings you would deem those three games crucial with first place in the AL Beast on the line, but New York has such a stranglehold (seven game lead over the plucky Rays) on the wildcard race that, barring a sweep, they barely affect either combatant's postseason chances. 

Both still have outside shots at 100 wins and both will be playing October baseball this year, so if we're lucky we just might get to see Yankee-Red Sox ALCS.  But for now, a surprisingly meaningless early September series at the Fens will have to do.

Red Sox Offense First Half Review

The All-Star Game is tonight and the Red Sox are exactly where they should be at the unofficial halfway point; leading the AL Beast with the second best record (55-35, two fewer wins than the Phillies) in the bigs.  Granted, the streaking Yankees are hot on their tail and the resilient Rays could go on a run, but Boston seems primed to pull away in the second half once it recovers to full health with Crawford, Lester and Buchholz returning to action.  At this point, it's seems safe to say the Bosox are where they are because of their hitting, which leads the AL in runs, hits, doubles, walks, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and total bases.  It's also second in triples, third in home runs, scored in double digits a dozen times and has improved each month so far.  Five players have at least ten long balls, three are hitting over .300 and six of the nine starters qualify as above average hitters at their position.  Top to bottom, this lineup is deep and talented with a good balance of power, speed, and patience.  It doesn't hurt that they know how to take advantage of Fenway's friendly confines (OPS 107 points higher at home) either. 

Without further adieu, here are your 2011 Beantown Bombers, five of whom were chosen as All-Stars this year.

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia-He received much of the blame for the pitching ineffectiveness during the slow start and had his game-calling skills questioned.  Perhaps it was an adjustment period for him and the hurlers?  The staff seems fully comfortable with Salty now, and his bat has come around, too.  After a punchless April, he flashed power by slugging .475 in May and put together a Joe Mauer-ish .327/.407/.538 line in June.  His overall numbers mirror his career averages, but the lack of offensive production from his fellow backstops means he actually ranks as slightly above average at the dish.  He can't touch V-Mart's hitting prowess, but at least he catches two in every three games.  Fun fact; they both have six home runs this year.

1B Adrian Gonzalez (AS)-AL MVP frontrunner in the midst of a career year.  The sweet swinging southpaw leads the league in hits, doubles, RBI, batting average, and total bases while supplying great defense at first base.  His shoulder may have hampered him a bit during the first two weeks at the season, but he turned his and the Sox's seasons around.  Since the team's 2-10 slide to open the year, A-Gone went on a sizzling .369/.425/.618 triple slash tear and threw in 70 RBI for good measure.  Gonzo ranks second in the league in positional player WAR (behind only the incomparable Jose Bautista) and is absolutely raking right now.  The walks and homers are down a bit and he leads the league in double plays grounded into, but I'm not going to nitpick; he's been all that and a bag of Doritos.

2B Dustin Pedroia (AS)-One of the few Red Sox to enjoy a nice start, the pint-sized keystoner suffered through a brutal month-plus stretch that saw his numbers tumble to .239/.349/.324 on June 4th.  He had been playing through an injury and after Tito gave him a much needed breather, the lasers started flying.  His power returned  and he's hit safely in all but two games since then (a Gonzalez-esque .367/.476/.658 clip) to haul those unsightly stats back up to a more than respectable .284/.395/.442 line.  On pace to set career highs in walks and stolen bases, Pedey ranks third in the league in positional player WAR and has played well in the field, too.  And who would have guessed that he would have twice as many stolen bases as Crawford at the break?

3B Kevin Youkilis (AS)-Youk has been a steady source of production at the hot corner this season.  Just check out his monthly splits, which are nearly identical, if you want proof of his consistency.  The Greek God of Walks ranks fifth in the league in positional player WAR and is enjoying a typical stellar season with a .911 OPS, 40 extra base hits and more RBI than any Red Sox not named Adrian.  He does have some concerning platoon splits; his OPS is nearly 500 points lower on the road and over 200 points lower against righties, and while he has always hit better at Fenway and torched lefties these are unusually stark contrasts to keep an eye on after the break

SS Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie-Shortstop has been a black hole in Boston since Nomar was in his prime, so why should 2011 be any different?  This tandem, subpar at the plate and average in the field, are adequate at best.  Their combined offensive production resembles that of Derek Jeter this season, a compliment in 2009 but an unflattering comparison in 2011.  Lowrie was on fire in April but fell back to earth, and Scoots is beginning to decline.  Scutaro seems to have a hold on the starting job for now, but that could change down the stretch as Lowrie is eight and a half years younger, can switch hit and needs more big league experience.

LF Carl Crawford-Crawford's been a major disappointment thus far in what has been the worst season of his distinguished career.  He's had some shining moments with several walk-offs and four hit days, but it seems the pressure to live up to his mammoth contract may be getting to him.  He was clearly pressing, a mental issue evident that translated to a career low walk percentage and career high chase percentage.  Hopefully some time on the DL will help him clear his head, but he needs to exhibit more patience and be more aggressive on the basepaths when he returns next week.  He's too good and young to play this poorly and should figure it out once he gets back in the swing of things, but at least he has company in Dan Uggla, Adam Dunn and Jayson Werth regarding marquee free agents with underwhelming statistics so far.

CF Jacoby Ellsbury (AS)-It seems that Ellsbury has put it all together in his age 27 season, as he's finally developed a power stroke to go along with his blazing speed.  Jacoby has already set a career high in home runs, is about to set a career high in doubles and is sporting a healthy .490 slugging percentage and .174 ISO.  This improved pop, combined with his league leading steals total and above average defense, helped earn him his first All-Star nomination.  He ranks fourth in the league in positional player WAR and has been nothing short of superb as this lineup's catalyst.  Could threaten 100 runs, 200 hits, 20 homers and 50 steals if he keeps it up.

RF JD Drew-Has been downright horrible this year, but hasn't received as much negative attention thanks to Crawford's equally dismal first half.  Drew, 35, is also sputtering through the worst season of his career and seems to be declining precipitously.  He has to play everyday with that $14 million dollar paycheck, but that's only hurting the team.  Although he is still solid in the field, no team can afford to have a corner outfielder hit .229/.329/.317 with ten extra base hits and 21 RBI.  He's been underrated during his tenure in Boston and has taken more than his fair share of flak for the hefty price tag and backward Ks in the scorecards, but he's basically useless at the moment, leading Theo to consider a trade for the resurgent Carlos Beltran.

DH Davis Ortiz (AS)-Papi avoided a slow start for the first time since 2007, and it's made quite a difference in his numbers.  Although he's the same age as Drew and Scutaro, he's hitting much better than the both of them combined because he cut down on his whiffs and is hitting much better against southpaws this season.  His .304/.391/.574 is right in line with his 2003-2004 efficiency averages, and has more walks than strikeouts (a feat he accomplished in 2006 and 2007).  He slumped during the recent interleague road trip and lost twenty points on his average, but seems to have gotten his timing back.  Not the elite hitter he was in his prime, but still very dangerous and always hits well in the second half.

The other guys-The bench has been solid so far.  Captain Varitek has equaled Salty's production, so the Sox haven't lost any offense on days when they need to rest the latter.  McDonald has been atrocious and Cameron slumped his way onto the Florida Marlins, but Reddick and Sutton have both been great in limited roles.  Navarro's been decent as well.  Right now, McDonald is the only weak spot, but it's a glaring one considering he plays the most..