25 Bold(ish) Predictions Review

A review of some bold(ish) predictions I made at the end of August.

1. Mike Trout will not win the AL MVP award: CORRECT (probably)
Trout and his 10.7 bWAR deserve it, but I think Miguel Cabrera will take home the trophy after becoming the first player in 45 years to win the Triple Crown.

2. Houston wins fewer than 50 games this year: WRONG
The Astros finished the season strong, playing .500 ball in September/October to end up with 55 victories. Have fun in the American League next year, Houston!

3. Baltimore is finally going to hit the skids: WRONG
Not only did the Orioles make the playoffs for the first time since 1997, but they nearly stole the division from the Yankees down the stretch and gave New York's offense fits during the ALDS. I'd be shocked if they finish above .500 next year, though.

4. Hanley Ramirez reaches 30 home runs for the first time since 2008: WRONG
HanRam launched his 24th and final long ball of the season on September 3rd, failing to go deep in the month of games that followed.

5. Justin Verlander repeats as AL Cy Young champion: CORRECT (probably)
I'm pretty confident that Verlander will win after posting near identical numbers to the ones he put up in 2011. David Price, Jered Weaver, Chris Sale, and Felix Hernandez all have strong cases, but Verlander is the guy.

6. The Red Sox avoid their first losing season since 1997: WRONG
Next question.

7. Josh Beckett (5-12, 5.21 ERA at the time) is going to turn his season around with the Dodgers: CORRECT
This one was a no-brainer. In his seven starts with the Dodgers, Beckett posted a nifty 2.93 ERA and fanned 38 batters in 43 innings of work. Expect that success to continue in 2013.

8. Bryce Harper goes 20/20: WRONG
The 19 year-old phenom just missed, finishing his sensational rookie year with 22 home runs and 18 stolen bases.

9. Josh Hamilton bats .300: WRONG
The 2010 AL MVP batted a career low .285.

10. Buster Posey knocks in 100 runs: CORRECT
The likely NL MVP amassed 103 RBI in 2012.

11. Nobody on the Houston Astros finishes with 15 home runs: WRONG
Justin Maxwell slugged 18 and Jed Lowrie blasted 16.

12. Joe Mauer gets traded: WRONG
Didn't happen.

13. Adam Dunn won't break Mark Reynolds' single season strikeout record: CORRECT
Dunn's 222 whiffs paced the majors, but fell three short of the Reynolds' record of futility. The Big Donkey also managed to keep his batting average above the Mendoza line by finishing the year at .204.

14. David Ortiz will not play again in 2012: CORRECT
Why bother?

15. Nobody in the NL will strike out more than 200 times: CORRECT
Dunn was the only player to pile up more than 200 K's, though Curtis Granderson came dangerously close with 195. Danny Espinosa "led" the Senior Circuit with 189.

16. Both Los Angeles teams make the playoffs: WRONG
Neither LA baseball team made the playoffs, which blows my mind given how stacked both of those rosters are. The Halos have the best rotation in baseball with Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, C.J. Wilson, and Ervin Santana, plus Trout, Albert Pujols, and Mark Trumbo. The Dodgers added HanRam, Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, Shane Victorino, and Carl Crawford to a team that already had Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Clayton Kershaw. It's fair to call both clubs underachievers after the Angels finished third in their division and the second place Dodgers wound up eight games behind the Giants.

17. Detroit will catch Chicago in the AL Central: CORRECT
The Tigers ended the season on a tear by winning eight of their final ten games, passing the White Sox and winning the division by three games. Chicago collapsed, dropping eleven of fifteen to close the season.

18. Eric Hosmer (.240/.310/.369) will get hot: WRONG
Seeing as how Hosmer's three rate stats only got worse (ended up at .232/.304/.359), he clearly did not catch fire in September.

19. The Reds will win 100 games and have the best record in baseball: WRONG
Cincinatti won 97 games and Washington had the best record in baseball. Neither made it beyond the first round.

20. The Braves blow their postseason birth, again: WRONG
Atlanta cruised to the NL Wild Card by winning 94 games. Unfortunately, a blown infield fly call in the play-in game against St. Louis brought a premature end to the Chipper Jones era.

For reasons unknown, I did not make a 21st or 22nd prediction.

23. Ichiro Suzuki leads AL position players in games played for the third year in a row: CORRECT
Suzuki played in all 162 games this season, a feat he's achieved four times in his illustrious career.

24. 23 year-old Madison Bumgarner finishes higher than rotation-mate Matt Cain on the NL Cy Young ballot: WRONG
Cain posted a superior winning percentage, ERA and WHIP while completing more innings. Most of their stats are indistinguishable, but Cain clearly had the better season.

25. Chipper Jones will draw a walk in the last at-bat of his career: WRONG
 The Cooperstown-bound third baseman legged out an infield single in his final plate appearance.

Overall: 9-for-23 (.391). I'll take it.

Red Sox Reshape Roster

Nearly five months into one of the most dysfunctional, frustrating and turbulent seasons in recent Red Sox memory, the organization is going in a new direction. Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford three of the team's biggest stars and most expensive players, are gone, taking a third of the team's 173 million dollar payroll with them. The overpaid trio was shipped out of Boston yesterday, jettisoned to the Los Angeles Dodgers. They, along with Nick Punto and eleven million dollars, netted five players (James Loney, prospects Ivan De Jesus Jr. and Alan Webster, plus two players to be named later--rumored to be Rubby De La Rosa and Jerry Sands) along with some much needed financial relief. In one fell swoop, Boston's front office pulled off the biggest firesale the Old Towne Team has seen since Harry Frazee dismantled his deadball era dynasty 90 years ago.

But with the team sputtering--seven games below .500, nine and a half games out of the second wild card and sporting a worse record than the Seattle freaking Mariners--it was evident that some sort of sweeping change was necessary to get them back on track. For the third year in a row, Boston will miss the playoffs, something that hasn't happened since 2000-2002 (Coolstandings.com gives them a 0.6 percent chance of reaching the postseason, and even those odds seem too generous). The team is headed towards its first losing season since 1997. They've gone 67-87 since last September 1st. It's hard to believe that at the same time a year ago, the "best team ever" was gunning for 100 wins and a World Series title.

But the Red Sox are expected to contend every year, so obviously this level of mediocrity is unacceptable. Boston, a city that cherishes baseball as much as it loves clam chowder and the legend of Paul Revere, will not tolerate losing seasons as long as it continues to pay the most expensive ticket prices in the sport. Red Sox Nation is impatient (and has every right to be after waiting 86 years between World Series) I give all the credit in the world to Boston GM Ben Cherington for getting creative and orchestrating such a groundbreaking trade to change the face of the franchise.  He deserves a pat on the back for trying to retool the team on the fly.  He could have easily blamed this lost season on a crippling combination of slumps and injuries, sat on his hands for the rest of the summer and taken his chances with the same team next year, perhaps with a new field manager in tow. Instead, he recognized the team was going nowhere because Theo Epstein's spending sprees tied up much of his financial resources. The bloated payroll, much of it dedicated to injured/ineffective players such as Beckett, Crawford, John Lackey, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, was working against them. It choked Cherington, limiting him to making minor moves and preventing him from pursuing players and deals that could actually make an impact (last winter he was unable to re-sign Jonathan Papelbon or court free agents such as Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson, and Mark Buehrle). So he took a cue from the Philadelphia Phillies, who were mired in the exact same situation as the Red Sox--massive payroll, devastated by injuries, treading water.  After re-signing Cole Hamels they unloaded Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino at the trade deadline.  Four weeks later, Boston followed suit.

By all accounts this blockbuster trade is a great move for the Red Sox and a big win for Cherington, who hasn't been able to do anything right since stepping in for Theo Epstein last October. After all, his recent track record is littered with duds; he hired Bobby Valentine, traded Josh Reddick for Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney, dealt Jed Lowrie for Mark Melancon, sent Marco Scutaro to Colorado, swapped Kevin Youkilis for a couple of nobodies, and stood pat the trade deadline instead of shaking things up when Boston still had a chance to make the playoffs. Cherington's moves only spilled gasoline into a raging inferno, adding to the team's myriad problems instead of solving them. But he just gave himself and his team a clean slate, and if this move works out for him, we might remember him as the man who cleaned up Theo Epstein's expensive mess with one big broom. In a way, this move feels like a much larger version of his predecessor's pivotal Nomar Garciaparra trade in 2004, a bold midseason deal that dumped an unhappy, underperforming star player to the NL for fifty cents on the dollar but ultimately worked because it greatly improved clubhouse chemistry and addressed the team's needs. In the end, the degree to which this deal suceeds depends on who Cherington is able to acquire with all the payroll he just freed up.

And that's why I support the move; because it will save the team more than $260 million in player salaries (not including Dice-K, who's coming off the books in a few months as well) over the next five years. After that kind of salary dump, you'd think the team had changed its name to the "Boston Mets." But with a much more flexible payroll, Cherington will have sufficient funds to re-sign David Ortiz and Cody Ross, potentially woo Jacoby Ellsbury away from free agency (an unlikely scenario considering Scott Boras represents him, but at least the Sox could lay down an appetizing offer and then try to trade him if he's not interested). He can go after starting pitchers like Zack Greinke, Ryan Dempster and James Shields, or perhaps try to land a Josh Hamilton, Nick Swisher, B.J. Upton, Michael Bourn or Shane Victorino. Cherington has stressed the need to be disciplined and smart about how he will allocate his new spending money, indicating that he won't get carried away with reckless splurging as Epstein did during the latter half of his tenure (i.e. throwing money at free agents just for the sake of spending money/making a splash). In a nutshell, he intends to spend his allowance wisely, an approach that should prevent this sort of thing from happening again in the near future.

And it's not like the Red Sox are blowing up their team Florida Marlins style. Much has been made about how the trade is like pressing a reset button, but that implies the team is starting over from starting over from scratch like the Houston Astros. In reality, they still have a great core of Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Will Middlebrooks, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Daniel Bard, all of whom are in their primes. With a restocked farm system and the right moves to complement this nucleus, the Red Sox could contend as soon as next year. No need to undergo a full blown rebuilding process when the roster still has plenty of big league talent to build around. With some more starting pitching depth and another outfield bat, they're going to be a dangerous team in 2013.

Still, I hate to lose a hitter of Gonzalez's caliber, especially since offense is at such a premium these days. He was worth the investment. But at the same time, I realize he had to be sacrificed in order to get LA to take Beckett and Crawford off our hands. Gonzo was a perfect fit for Fenway with his gap-to-gap hitting style and ability to take advantage of the Green Monster with his opposite field power. A-Gone had the potential to put together a Hall of Fame career as the team's best everyday first baseman since Mo Vaughn. He's a class act, a true professional who plays hard, quietly goes about his business and keeps his mouth shut.  Lord knows the Red Sox could use more players like him. It was a joy watching him hit everyday, and the Sox are going to miss his presence in the middle of their order. Luckily I was fortunate enough to see his last game with Boston in person, even though he ended his Red Sox career (and that game) by whiffing on three consecutive pitches with the tying run on base.

Even though I'm not a big fan of trading proven big league talent for prospects, I think the Sox got a pretty promising package in return:

James Loney
Once a top prospect and first round draft pick who batted a robust .331/.387/.538 as a 23 year-old rookie in 2007, Loney hasn't come close to matching those numbers in any of the five seasons since. The power he displayed never developed, either, as he's failed to swat more than thirteen homers in any subsequent season. Given the promise he displayed early on, his regression into an average player at best can be regarded as hugely disappointing. He's 28, in the prime of his career, and instead he's having the worst season of his career, batting just .254/.302/.344 with only four home runs and 33 RBI. That kind of production suggests he's a glove first shortstop, when in reality he's splitting time at first with Juan Rivera. Loney will be a free agent this winter, and unless he regroups over the next six weeks I doubt he'll stay in Boston beyond that. Fenway could help revitalize his career, but he looks so lost at the plate that it doesn't matter where he hits.

Jerry Sands
The slugging 24 year-old first baseman has posted monster numbers (.566 SLG, .943 OPS) in the minor leagues but that success hasn't followed him into the Show, where he's batted just .244/.325/.376 with four home runs in 70 career games. He's not Adrian Gonzalez and probably never will be, but has the potential to be a franchise cornerstone at first base for years to come. The 6'4", 225 pound righthanded power hitter has the same build as Ryan Lavarnaway and should enjoy taking aim at the Green Monster.

Ivan De Jesus Jr.
Not sure what the Sox plan on doing with a light-hitting second baseman, given that they already have one of the game's top keystones in Dustin Pedroia. They could hold on to him in case Pedroia gets hurt, but he probably has more value as trade bait.

Alan Webster
A highly regarded sinkerball pitcher, the 22 year-old has stalled out in AA and will likely need another year or two of seasoning before he's ready for the big leagues. He is the only player in the deal without any MLB experience.

Rubby De La Rosa
The 23 year-old pitching prospect looks fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, as his mid-90s velocity has returned. Has dominant stuff, but needs to harness his command in order to become an effective starting pitcher at the big league level.

As for the Dodgers, it's been a busy summer for them and their GM NEd Coletti, who added some punch to a top-heavy lineup by trading for Victorino and Hanley Ramirez prior to the July 31st deadline. Gonzalez gives them another offensive weapon, as will Crawford when he returns, and Beckett bolsters the starting rotation. Now that the dust has settled, you could make the case that the Dodgers' roster now features the best player (2011 NL MVP runner-up Matt Kemp), first baseman(Gonzalez, as long as Joey Votto is out), shortstop (Ramirez), starting pitcher (2011 NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw) and closer (Kenley Jansen) in baseball.

Here are their four newest additions:

Josh Beckett
Nobody needed a change of scenery more than Beckett, presently the most hated athlete wearing a Boston uniform. His attitude, arrogance and abysmal performance, along with unhealthy dietary habits and leisurely rounds of golf, caused the city to sour on him. He had to go. His behavior over the past year has erased any memory of his postseason dominance during the team's 2007 World Series championship run, which is really too bad. The 2007 ALCS MVP could have had a Luis Tiant/Curt Schilling type of legacy here as the October warrior who always saved his best for the games that mattered the most. Instead, his legacy is drinking beer and eating fried chicked with Jon Lester and John Lackey while the Red Sox folded. He squandered any chance he had at redemption by submitting one of his worst seasons to date and hasn't shown any signs of turning it around with just one win in his previous thirteen starts. The 32 year-old's velocity is down and he could be entering the decline phase of his career. Even so, he should show marked improvement against weaker NL competition (hey, I mean if A.J. Burnett can pitch like a Cy Young candidate...). His timing couldn't be better for the Dodgers, since Chad Billingsley was just placed on the disabled list yesterday with inflammation in his right elbow. Beckett's nightmare season (5-11, 5.23 ERA) is far from over, but with a strong finish to the year--perhaps capped by some vintage Beckett postseason performances--he can salvage something positive to build on for the next two years of his contract. He makes his Dodger debut tomorrow against the Rockies at Coors Field. Good luck with that.

Carl Crawford
With Crawford joining All-Stars Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, all three of whom are signed through 2017, the Dodgers now feature the best outfield in baseball for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately Crawford is done for the year after going under the knife (Tommy John surgery) earlier in the week, and thus cannot contribute to the Dodgers' stretch run as they try to nudge past the now Melky Cabrera-less San Francisco Giants. His brief stint in Beantown was nothing short of an unmitigated disaster; he missed more games (163) than he played (161) and was terrible when he showed up, batting a woeful .260/.292/.419 and providing 0.3 bWAR. You got the sense that Crawford was never really comfortable here, that he was too thin-skinned to handle the claustrophobic atmosphere of the fishbowl that is Boston sports. Throw in the added pressure to live up to his gargantuan seven year, $142 million deal and it's not too hard to see why he didn't suceed with the Bosox. It's also important to remember that Crawford didn't want to play for Boston in the first place; the other LA team topped his list of preferred destinations when he hit the free agent market two years ago, but the Red Sox offered more money and the Halos wound up absorbing an even worse contract by trading for Vernon Wells (a lose-lose if I've ever seen one). Needless to say, he should be much happier in the city of Angels, a more laid back environment--like Tampa Bay--that gives him the opportunity to start from scratch whenever he returns next season. I think he'll make the most of it; his style is tailor-made for the National League, and his speed will be on full display in the spacious ballparks of the NL West. Presumably Mattingly will bat him at the top of the order again (after hitting seventh for much of his tenure in Boston), where he can set the table for Kemp, Gonzo, Ethier and HanRam. I'm betting he has several productive years in front of him because he still has all the physical tools. I've said it before and I'll say it again; if he stays healthy, he's going to put up big numbers.

Adrian Gonzalez
A massive upgrade over Loney. The native Californian leaves the friendly confines of Fenway Park and returns to the NL West, where he established himself as one of the game's top hitters with the San Diego Padres by averaging 32 home runs, 100 RBI and a 141 OPS+ from 2006-'10 despite calling PetCo Park home. Since then shoulder problems have diminished his home run pop somewhat, but he's still one of the best pure hitters in the game. A-Gone is in the midst of a torrid second half, as he's batted .333 with ten dingers and 44 RBI in 38 games since the All-Star Break. It looks like his power has returned, so expect him to keep raking while Don Mattingly installs him as the new cleanup hitter.  Perhaps as a harbinger of good things to come, Gonzalez belted a three-run homer in his first at-bat with the Dodgers.

Nick Punto
A solid bench guy to have because he's so versatile, a utilityman with a solid glove who can be plugged in at second, third or short. The California native can't hit worth a lick, but has value as a defensive replacement or a pinch runner in the late innings. As far as throw-ins go, you could do worse. With the way players are getting injured these days, bench depth is becoming more important than ever before.

In the wake of their disastrous 2011 season marred by financial turmoil off the field, the new-look Dodgers are all in, willing to do whatever it takes to win. Like Boston, LA hasn't appeared in the postseason since 2009 and is itching to get back. Just two games out of first place in the NL West, they're poised to make a September run that would dethrone the Giants. But that's not going to be easy the way Matt Cain (2.83 ERA), Madison Bumgarner (2.93 ERA) , Ryan Vogelsong (2.90 ERA) and Tim Lincecum (3.10 ERA in the second half) are pitching, backed by Buster Posey's MVP worthy season. The offense suffered a big blow after losing Melky Cabrera for the rest of the season, but they have enough bats to keep scoring runs in his absence. Angel Pagan, Marco Scutaro and Pablo Sandoval have all picked up the slack, and Hunter Pence is going to snap out of his funk eventually. This divisional race will likely go down to the wire and could be decided by the three game series between the two that marks the season's finish line. Coolstandings gives San Fran a 62.2 percent chance of winning the division, nearly twice as likely to capture the flag as Los Angeles (31.7 percent). In the end, San Francisco's formidable starting rotation will probably be too much to overcome, so the Dodgers may have to settle for one of the wild cards. They're neck and neck with the defending World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals for the second one, just a half game back. The Redbirds have a loaded lineup (Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, Yadier Molina, Allen Craig, Jon Jay, Rafael Furcal, David Freese), too, but I'm not convinced their pitching will hold up in September.  Lance Lynn, Kyle Lohse, and Jake Westbrook have overachieved lately and could be due for some regression.

I have to believe the Dodgers will find a way to make the playoffs. They're too talented not to, but a lot of it hinges on Beckett and Ted Lilly stablizing the rotation by pitching well down the stretch. Coletti's wheeling and dealing has assembled a veritable juggernaut. He's put the pieces in place, and if they play the way they're supposed to, this team is going to be tough to beat.

Then again, you could have said the same thing about the Red Sox not too long ago.

Supporting Crawford's Call

Little more than a month after it began, Carl Crawford's season has ended

Carl Crawford's season is over.

Boston's much maligned leftfielder will undergo Tommy John surgery on Thursday, an operation he should have had performed more than a month ago.  It's been another tough season for Crawford, who underwent wrist surgery last winter, started the season on the 60 Day DL and suffered multiple setbacks throughout his rehab, including the torn ligament in his elbow that requires the aforementioned procedure.  By the time he finally returned to action on July 16th, the season was already half over.  But to his credit, he came back and tried to help his underachieving team salvage something out of their lost season.  He didn't quit on them, even though he's bailing out with nearly a quarter of the season left to play.  He tried to spark a second half push.  He tried to earn some of his 19.5 million dollar salary.   It's not his fault Boston continued to slip in the standings.

Now, if the Sox had made a second half surge like they were supposed to, I think Crawford would suck it up and keep on trotting out there everyday.  He's a hard-working competitor who wants to help the team win. I'm sure he'd also like to redeem himself and restore his reputation as one of the best all-around players in the game. He's a sensitive guy, too; he cares what people think and knows what kind of backlash he'd have to endure if he pulled a Manny Ramirez stunt like that.  New England would crucify him if he shut it down while the team was still battling for a postseason berth (merciless booing, scathing newspaper articles, nasty phone calls to sports radio--the works). And while Boston isn't clinically dead just yet, they're bleeding out on the operating table. Let's be realistic here; no matter what Bobby Valentine says, the Boston Red Sox are not going to play October baseball this season (coolstandings.com supports me, giving the Sox a measly 4.3 percent chance of making the playoffs).  Even with the second wild card in play, it's not gonna happen, not given plethora of injuries and slumps that have ravaged their key players:

Andrew Bailey-hurt
Daniel Bard-slumped, demoted
Josh Beckett-hurt and slumped
Clay Buchholz-hurt
Adrian Gonzalez-slumped
John Lackey-hurt
Jon Lester-slumped
Daisuke Matsuzaka-hurt
Mark Melancon-slumped, demoted
Will Middlebrooks-hurt
David Ortiz-hurt
Dustin Pedroia-hurt and slumped
Cody Ross-hurt
Ryan Sweeney-hurt
Kevin Youkilis-hurt, slumped, traded

You could fill out an All-Star roster with all that talent.  It' absurd how one team could become so snake-bitten.  All year long, we waited patiently for this team to get healthy and get on a roll. Optimists promised a second half run that would vault the team into contention and erase the disappointing first half.  Instead, Boston has been even worse since the All-Star Break; they were 43-43 with a +43 run differential before it but are just 16-20 with a -9 run differential since.  They've wilted during the dog days of summer, just as they faded down the stretch a year ago.  This team has flat-out stunk for almost a full calendar year now; they've gone 66-83 since September 1st, 2011.  Not to mention that they haven't been to the postseason since 2009, or  won a playoff game since 2008. Seven games out of the second wild card with 40 to play, I can't see them putting it together.  They're done.  Toast.  Finished (really hoping this reverse jinx works).

So with the Red Sox dead in the water, it just doesn't make sense for Crawford to play out the string, to put keep playing through the pain for five weeks of meaningless baseball.  Why bother?  What's the point?  It's not worth jeopardizing his future with the possibility that he might injure himself even further (and with the way things are going for the Sox this year, he'd probably blow out a hamstring running down the first base line or suffer a broken wrist from an errant fastball).  It's not worth him waiting until October to have a surgery he needed yesterday and miss even more time next year.  The risk outweighs the reward, and with investments of this magnitude, it's always better to err on the side of caution.  The choice is clear, and if I were Crawford, I would have gone under the knife weeks ago.  I'm not taking any chances with my body, regardless of what they write in the Globe and say on WEEI?  I'm not a doctor, but if you need surgery, you should probably have it sooner rather than later.  And the sooner he gets it, the sooner he can start rehabbing and preparing for next season.  He's making the right call.

Even though he'll end the season with just 31 games played (roughly one-fifth of a season), Crawford provided enough of a snapshot for us to believe he will return to form next year.  At the plate he looked much more comfortable than he did last season, when he was clearly pressing and trying to live up to his new contract (same goes for Jayson Werth, Adam Dunn, Curtis Granderson, etc.).  He eliminated his glaring platoon splits and hit the ball with authority to all fields. Granted, his 2012 statistics are a small sample, but If you project them over the course of 155 games he'd put together a typical Carl Crawford season.  He would have scored 115 runs, slugged 50 doubles, legged out ten triples, blasted 15 homers, driven in 95 and swiped 25 bases.  Those are damn good numbers, especially in baseball's new pitching-dominated context.  As long as the four time All-Star is healthy next year, he's going to put up the numbers.  I have no doubt in my mind about that.  He might never again be the player he was in Tampa Bay, but if he can be 80-90 percent of that guy, I'd take that in a heartbeat.  Wouldn't you?

He proved his skills are still intact, but  at the end of the day it always boils down to health.  Since joining the Red Sox, the once-durable Crawford who could be counted on to play 150 games a year has morphed into a walking medical bill.  After two seasons in a Red Sox uniform, Crawford will have spent more games on the bench (163) than he did on the field (161), all the while draining millions of dollars from Boston's bloated payroll.  But the benefit of getting the surgery over with is that he can limit the amount of playing time he'll lose (if any) next year.  For position players, it typically takes anywhere from seven to nine months to recover from the procedure. Barring any major setbacks, Crawford could be good to go by Opening Day, 2013.  Then he can get back to the business of not making the franchise feel like they flushed $142 million down the toilet.  Perhaps he could even pull an Ellsbury and take home AL Comeback Player of the Year honors.  I'd still like to see him be more aggressive on the basepaths, but at least he ran more frequently than he did last year and went a perfect 5-for-5 in stolen base attempts.  30 is a good baseline for him.  He still needs to show more patience, too, as his 22/3 K/BB rate and .306 OBP are both brutal. I know he's never been a very selective hitter, but he chased a career high 38.4 percent of pitches outside the strike zone.  His plate discipline must improve, particularly as he ages and loses bat speed.

I'm looking forward to having a healthy Crawford in 2013, if everything goes according to plan.  But if this season has taught Red Sox fans anything, it's that things rarely do.

Red Sox Offense First Half Review

The All-Star Game is tonight and the Red Sox are exactly where they should be at the unofficial halfway point; leading the AL Beast with the second best record (55-35, two fewer wins than the Phillies) in the bigs.  Granted, the streaking Yankees are hot on their tail and the resilient Rays could go on a run, but Boston seems primed to pull away in the second half once it recovers to full health with Crawford, Lester and Buchholz returning to action.  At this point, it's seems safe to say the Bosox are where they are because of their hitting, which leads the AL in runs, hits, doubles, walks, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and total bases.  It's also second in triples, third in home runs, scored in double digits a dozen times and has improved each month so far.  Five players have at least ten long balls, three are hitting over .300 and six of the nine starters qualify as above average hitters at their position.  Top to bottom, this lineup is deep and talented with a good balance of power, speed, and patience.  It doesn't hurt that they know how to take advantage of Fenway's friendly confines (OPS 107 points higher at home) either. 

Without further adieu, here are your 2011 Beantown Bombers, five of whom were chosen as All-Stars this year.

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia-He received much of the blame for the pitching ineffectiveness during the slow start and had his game-calling skills questioned.  Perhaps it was an adjustment period for him and the hurlers?  The staff seems fully comfortable with Salty now, and his bat has come around, too.  After a punchless April, he flashed power by slugging .475 in May and put together a Joe Mauer-ish .327/.407/.538 line in June.  His overall numbers mirror his career averages, but the lack of offensive production from his fellow backstops means he actually ranks as slightly above average at the dish.  He can't touch V-Mart's hitting prowess, but at least he catches two in every three games.  Fun fact; they both have six home runs this year.

1B Adrian Gonzalez (AS)-AL MVP frontrunner in the midst of a career year.  The sweet swinging southpaw leads the league in hits, doubles, RBI, batting average, and total bases while supplying great defense at first base.  His shoulder may have hampered him a bit during the first two weeks at the season, but he turned his and the Sox's seasons around.  Since the team's 2-10 slide to open the year, A-Gone went on a sizzling .369/.425/.618 triple slash tear and threw in 70 RBI for good measure.  Gonzo ranks second in the league in positional player WAR (behind only the incomparable Jose Bautista) and is absolutely raking right now.  The walks and homers are down a bit and he leads the league in double plays grounded into, but I'm not going to nitpick; he's been all that and a bag of Doritos.

2B Dustin Pedroia (AS)-One of the few Red Sox to enjoy a nice start, the pint-sized keystoner suffered through a brutal month-plus stretch that saw his numbers tumble to .239/.349/.324 on June 4th.  He had been playing through an injury and after Tito gave him a much needed breather, the lasers started flying.  His power returned  and he's hit safely in all but two games since then (a Gonzalez-esque .367/.476/.658 clip) to haul those unsightly stats back up to a more than respectable .284/.395/.442 line.  On pace to set career highs in walks and stolen bases, Pedey ranks third in the league in positional player WAR and has played well in the field, too.  And who would have guessed that he would have twice as many stolen bases as Crawford at the break?

3B Kevin Youkilis (AS)-Youk has been a steady source of production at the hot corner this season.  Just check out his monthly splits, which are nearly identical, if you want proof of his consistency.  The Greek God of Walks ranks fifth in the league in positional player WAR and is enjoying a typical stellar season with a .911 OPS, 40 extra base hits and more RBI than any Red Sox not named Adrian.  He does have some concerning platoon splits; his OPS is nearly 500 points lower on the road and over 200 points lower against righties, and while he has always hit better at Fenway and torched lefties these are unusually stark contrasts to keep an eye on after the break

SS Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie-Shortstop has been a black hole in Boston since Nomar was in his prime, so why should 2011 be any different?  This tandem, subpar at the plate and average in the field, are adequate at best.  Their combined offensive production resembles that of Derek Jeter this season, a compliment in 2009 but an unflattering comparison in 2011.  Lowrie was on fire in April but fell back to earth, and Scoots is beginning to decline.  Scutaro seems to have a hold on the starting job for now, but that could change down the stretch as Lowrie is eight and a half years younger, can switch hit and needs more big league experience.

LF Carl Crawford-Crawford's been a major disappointment thus far in what has been the worst season of his distinguished career.  He's had some shining moments with several walk-offs and four hit days, but it seems the pressure to live up to his mammoth contract may be getting to him.  He was clearly pressing, a mental issue evident that translated to a career low walk percentage and career high chase percentage.  Hopefully some time on the DL will help him clear his head, but he needs to exhibit more patience and be more aggressive on the basepaths when he returns next week.  He's too good and young to play this poorly and should figure it out once he gets back in the swing of things, but at least he has company in Dan Uggla, Adam Dunn and Jayson Werth regarding marquee free agents with underwhelming statistics so far.

CF Jacoby Ellsbury (AS)-It seems that Ellsbury has put it all together in his age 27 season, as he's finally developed a power stroke to go along with his blazing speed.  Jacoby has already set a career high in home runs, is about to set a career high in doubles and is sporting a healthy .490 slugging percentage and .174 ISO.  This improved pop, combined with his league leading steals total and above average defense, helped earn him his first All-Star nomination.  He ranks fourth in the league in positional player WAR and has been nothing short of superb as this lineup's catalyst.  Could threaten 100 runs, 200 hits, 20 homers and 50 steals if he keeps it up.

RF JD Drew-Has been downright horrible this year, but hasn't received as much negative attention thanks to Crawford's equally dismal first half.  Drew, 35, is also sputtering through the worst season of his career and seems to be declining precipitously.  He has to play everyday with that $14 million dollar paycheck, but that's only hurting the team.  Although he is still solid in the field, no team can afford to have a corner outfielder hit .229/.329/.317 with ten extra base hits and 21 RBI.  He's been underrated during his tenure in Boston and has taken more than his fair share of flak for the hefty price tag and backward Ks in the scorecards, but he's basically useless at the moment, leading Theo to consider a trade for the resurgent Carlos Beltran.

DH Davis Ortiz (AS)-Papi avoided a slow start for the first time since 2007, and it's made quite a difference in his numbers.  Although he's the same age as Drew and Scutaro, he's hitting much better than the both of them combined because he cut down on his whiffs and is hitting much better against southpaws this season.  His .304/.391/.574 is right in line with his 2003-2004 efficiency averages, and has more walks than strikeouts (a feat he accomplished in 2006 and 2007).  He slumped during the recent interleague road trip and lost twenty points on his average, but seems to have gotten his timing back.  Not the elite hitter he was in his prime, but still very dangerous and always hits well in the second half.

The other guys-The bench has been solid so far.  Captain Varitek has equaled Salty's production, so the Sox haven't lost any offense on days when they need to rest the latter.  McDonald has been atrocious and Cameron slumped his way onto the Florida Marlins, but Reddick and Sutton have both been great in limited roles.  Navarro's been decent as well.  Right now, McDonald is the only weak spot, but it's a glaring one considering he plays the most..