Rollins Rolling Towards Cooperstown

Rollins has steadily compiled numbers that rank among those of baseball's best shortstops

Now that Jimmy Rollins is the Phillies franchise hits leader (which is really quite impressive considering the team has been around in some capacity since 1883), people will inevitably begin to talk about his Hall of Fame chances. After all, the man he just passed, Mike Schmidt, was a first ballot Hall of Famer who sailed into Cooperstown with 96.5 percent of the vote in 1995, and their career averages are almost identical, with Rollins at .268 to Schmidt's .267.

But that's where the statistical similarities between the two end, and right now, at least, Rollins' Hall hopes don't look nearly so good. Based on bWAR, Rollins has never been the best player on his own team, let alone the league (his undeserved 2007 MVP award notwithstanding). His offense has been uneven over the course of his career, and his bat rates a hair below average when adjusted for league and park (97 OPS+, with more seasons below 100 than above it). He's yet to bat .300 in any season (and at this stage of his career, probably never will) or post an OBP above .350. He falls short by JAWs, Black Ink, Gray Ink, Hall of Fame Standards, and Hall of Stats, and just barely qualifies by Hall of Fame monitor. With only three All-Star game appearances, one Silver Slugger, one World Series ring, one top-nine MVP finish and 43.6 career bWAR to his name, Rollins neither looks nor smells like a Hall of Famer, something his .268/.328/.425 seems to confirm. His most similar batter, Ray Durham, just fell off the ballot on his first try.

And yet, part of me thinks Rollins has been underappreciated by baseball fans outside Philadelphia. Here's a guy who comes to play everyday, and when the season's over you look up and realize that he stroked 35-40 doubles, swiped 30 or 40-odd bases, blasted 10-20 homers, and collected a good number of hits and runs. Combined with great defense at a premium position (four Gold Gloves), that's pretty valuable. Since 2000 Rollins has compiled more WAR than any shortstop not named Derek Jeter (omitting Alex Rodriguez, who moved to third base after 2003). He ranks as baseball's 16th most valuable position player during that span, with more fWAR than Matt Holliday, Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero, Joe Mauer David Ortiz, and one-time teammate Bobby Abreu. Rollins is also the only National League shortstop to be named MVP in the past 18 seasons, and he's the only shortstop ever with more than 200 home runs and 400 stolen bases.

Which is weird because I feel like when people think of the best shortstops of the past 15 years, Rollins' name rarely comes to mind. I'd wager a bet that most fans wouldn't have him in their top-three, or probably even their top five. I'd imagine Jeter tops everyone's list, and is followed in some order by Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Michael Young, Miguel Tejada, and Rollins.

But because of Rollins's durability and longevity (ten seasons with at least 154 games played and a dozen with over 600 plate appearances), his counting numbers are better than all of them (except Jeter) and numerous other shortstops that came before him. J-Roll has scored more runs than Joe Cronin and Ozzie Smith, clubbed more doubles than Luke Appling, and compiled more base knocks than Pee Wee Reese. He's also hit more home runs than Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell (his second and fourth-best comps, respectively), and stolen more bases than Jeter and Omar Vizquel.  His rate stats aren't great, though his .753 OPS isn't far off from Robin Yount's .772 mark

When all is said and done, Rollins could rank within the top-ten all-time among shortstops in runs scored (he needs 130, or about two more decent seasons, to get there). He's already eighth in doubles with 466 and only needs three more to pass Tejada. Similarly he needs just four home runs to pass Rico Petrocelli at 210 and break into the top ten. 2,500 hits would put him in the top-12, and 2,600 would vault him into the top ten.

So while Rollins isn't Hall of Fame worthy quite yet, he's going to be an interesting candidate if he keeps climbing the leaderboards over the next few years. Assuming he winds up with around 2,500 hits, 500 doubles, 1,400 runs, 250 homers, 500 steals, and 1,000 RBI, the switch-hitting speedster will have a diverse statistical portfolio unlike that of any other shortstop that would seem to merit indeuction. At 35 he still has a few more years in front of them, years that will make or break his Cooperstown case. If he falls apart next year and is forced to retire, I don't think he makes it in. But if he has a couple more solid seasons and hangs around until his 40th birthday like Jeter, then his career numbers are going to be too impressive to overlook.

Best Pitching Season of the 1930s

Gave a lot of thought to Carl Hubbell and Dizzy Dean's 1934 here, too, and in the end it boiled down to a matter of taste.

Lefty Grove 1931 (9.5 bWAR)

With all due respect to those who believe Sandy Koufax (or Warren Spahn and Randy Johnson, for that matter) is the greatest lefthanded pitcher in baseball history, they are sorely mistaken. While few, if any, were better than Koufax at his peak, Lefty Grove's numbers from his best seasons are just as good and he sustained them for twice as long. Furthermore, Grove's figures look even more impressive considering the context. Grove was essentially the Pedro Martinez of the Great Depression, putting up outstanding numbers in the heart of an era dominated by offense, whereas Koufax clearly benefited from pitching in Dodger Stadium during the second Dead-ball era.

But with offense peaking and the stock market tumbling, Grove was at his very best. In 1931 he won the major league pitching Triple Crown for the second straight year by pacing the bigs with his 31 wins, 175 strikeouts and 2.06 ERA that translated to an ML-best 217 ERA+, the 20th highest mark of all-time. The 31 year-old southpaw completed 27 of his 30 starts (90 percent), most in the majors, as he piled up 288 and two-thirds innings, second only to rotation-mate Rube Walberg. For good measure, he also posted the league's best WHIP, winning percentage, and K/BB ratio.

For helping lead Connie Mack's Philadelphia A's to their third straight American League pennant and a World Series rematch with the St. Louis Cardinals, Grove became the second AL pitcher to receive his league's MVP award ("Big Train" Walter Johnson, a two-time winner, was the first). Grove was recognized as the most valuable player on a team that won 107 games and featured future Hall of Famers Jimmie Foxx, Al Simmons, Mickey Cochrane, and Waite Hoyt. Even more impressively, he beat out Lou Gehrig (in the Iron Horse's 184 RBI season, no less) and Babe Ruth, who was worth ten bWAR for the Bronx Bombers. Had there been a Cy Young award that season, Grove would have won it with ease.

Grove continued to excel in October, pitching his Athletics to the brink of a third consecutive World Series title by going the distance in a do-or-die Game 6 in St. Louis. However, Philadelphia went on to drop Game 7 to the Gashouse Gang as Burleigh Grimes outdueled George Earnshaw in a 4-2 nailbiter. It would be 40 years and two relocations before the A's returned to the postseason.

Here are some more fun facts from Grove's great 1931 campaign:

• Opponents batted just .229/.271/.298 off him. In 1931 the American League hit a collective .279/.344/.396 while averaging 5.14 runs per game
• In the eight decades since, no hurler has exceeded his 31 wins. Dean came close with 30 three years later, and Denny McLain racked up 31 victories in 1968, the Year of the Pitcher
• Grove's ERA was 1.92 entering his final start of the season, but the New York Yankees tagged him for five earned runs in three innings on their way to a 13-1 rout
• His average GameScore was a 65
• Won 16 consecutive decisions from June 8th through August 19th
• Despite totaling 27 complete games, Grove collected just four shutouts
• Surrendered just ten home runs all year long and never yielded more than one in any ballgame
• The A's went 27-3 in Grove's starts (.900 winning percentage) and 37-4 in his appearances (.902). However, Philly was such a powerhouse that year that it went 80-42 (.656) in games not started by Grove, probably because he was flanked by a pair of 20-game winners in the aforementioned Walberg and Earnshaw
• Made eleven relief appearances and saved five games
• Grove's MVP award from this season is the only one not displayed in the Hall of Fame

Best offensive season of the 1930s--Hack Wilson (1930)