Yaz or Papi?

As great as Ortiz has been, he can't hold a candle to Yaz 

With David Ortiz passing Carl Yastrzemski on the all-time home run list last night, sports radio was rife today with passionate debate over which one was better.

To me, this isn't even an argument. Yaz by a lot. Case closed.

Now I'll readily concede that Ortiz, at least since he's come over to the Red Sox, has been a better hitter than Yastrzemski. Interestingly enough their career batting averages are identical at .285, and their career OBPs are within a point of each other as well. Both were fantastic in the clutch, too. Still, there's no question that Ortiz, with his 84 point edge in slugging percentage/ISo and superior home run total in about 5,300 fewer plate appearances, has been the superior slugger. Yaz managed only eight seasons with at least 20 homers in his 23-year career, while Ortiz already has 13 such seasons (consecutively, I might add) in his 18 years.

That said, it must also be remembered that the long ball is much more commonplace nowadays than it was when Yaz played. For most of Ortiz's career, baseball teams have typically averaged around one home run per game, usually a little more. Back in Yastrzemski's day, that number tended to be around 0.7 or 0.8. So for Yaz to have as many 40 homer seasons--three--as Ortiz really is quite impressive. For all of Ortiz's dingers, he still has only one home run title--same as Yastrzemski (who, fun fact, shared his with Harmon Killebrew in 1967).

Looking at batting runs, Ortiz also comes out on top on a per-game basis. With 372 batting runs above average in just over 2,000 games, Ortiz has averaged a batting run every 5.5 games played. With 450 in 3,308 games, Yaz tallied one every 7.35 games. A pretty sizable difference, but also note that Yastrzemski produced next to nothing in this category over his final nine seasons, managing only 50 in his last 1,200 or so games. Before 1975 he had 400 batting runs in in just over 2,100 games, meaning he was right there with Ortiz.

So yes, Ortiz been a better hitter and run producer than Yaz was, but not by as much as his advantage in power numbers would suggest. It's really close, actually, after considering the context of the eras in which they played. Yastrzemski's greatest seasons came during the offensively-suppressed 1960s and '70s, while many of Ortiz's best years came when offense was booming in the mid and late 2000s, before the recent downturn for hitters. Thus, Yastrzemski's career adjusted OPS of 130 (134 through age 38) isn't that far off from Ortiz's 139 mark (and, don't forget, was maintained for thousands of more at-bats). Similarly, his .375 wOBA is not dwarfed by Ortiz's .390, but is rather quite comparable.

Also don't forget that Ortiz had Manny Ramirez hitting behind or in front of him during his best seasons. Yaz was surrounded by his fair share of talent, especially during the second half of his career, but never a hitter of Manny's quality (Jim Rice was great, but not quite on Manny's level). Yastrzemski's supporting cast was especially weak during his peak seasons, when Boston's biggest threat besides Yaz was Reggie Smith. Another good player, but no Manny.

But if these past two MVP debates between Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera have taught us anything, it's that there's more to baseball than hitting. With 168 stolen bases, Yastrzemski holds a clear edge on the bases compared to Ortiz, who's managed a meager 15. Yaz was a good baserunner in his younger days and basically broke even for his career in terms of added value there, whereas Ortiz has always been a liability because of his size and lack of foot speed. That closes the gap some.

Then there's defense, which puts Yaz way over the top. A seven-time Gold Glover, Yaz learned to play the Green Monster to perfection and earned a reputation as one of the best defensive outfielders of all-time. In his heyday Yaz was like a young Barry Bonds, a complete package capable of winning ballgames with his bat, legs, and glove. Ortiz, a full-time DH, has only ever been able to win games with the lumber. He almost never plays the field and adds no value via defensive contributions. He can barely play first base competently, let alone one of the trickiest outfields the majors.

So whatever edge one grants to Ortiz for his hitting, a bigger edge must be given to Yastrzemski to account for his better baserunning and superlative defense. According to Baseball-Reference, Yaz had one 12-win season (his MVP/Triple Crown year in 1967, of course), one 10-win season (1968--The Year of the Pitcher) and a nine-win season (in 1970). Ortiz has had one season--2007--where he was worth more than six, and zero where he was worth over seven. Yastrzemski compiled nearly 100 WAR (B-R and FanGraphs) in his Hall of Fame career; Ortiz will be lucky if he gets to 50. Even if you gave Ortiz as many plate appearances as Yastrzemski, there would still be no question as to which one was more valuable.

For one at-bat, I'd take Ortiz. But for an entire game, season, career, what have you, it's gotta be Yastrzemski.

Cabrera At It Again

Once again, Miguel Cabrera is far and away the best hitter in baseball

Last year, Miguel Cabrera became the first man in 45 years to lead his league in home runs, RBI, and batting average. This year, he could become the first player ever to win the Triple Crown in consecutive seasons.

Only two men have ever won multiple Triple Crowns, and their names are Ted Williams and Rogers Hornsby. Williams accomplished the feat five years apart, in 1942 and 1947, but might have won in 1943 had he not been serving his country during World War II. He nearly won in 1941, when his .406 batting average and 37 home runs paced the major leagues, but his 120 RBI fell five short of Joe DiMaggio's league-leading total.

Hornsby also came tantalizingly close to becoming a repeat Triple Crown winner. He won his first in 1922 but came within an eyelash of winning the year before. Rajah won the batting crown (.397) and RBI title (126) in 1921 but his 21 long balls were bested by High Pockets Kelly's 23. Hornsby won his second Triple Crown in 1925.

While it's still way too early to be talking about a serious Triple Crown run, the reigning MVP's hot start has put him on track to make history. Cabrera currently leads the major leagues in both batting average  (.384) and RBI (49) while ranking third in home runs (12), tied with Edwin Encarnacion and Mark Reynolds but just one behind league-leaders Chris Davis and Robinson Cano.

Cabrera is raking right now, and while his batting average is guaranteed to drop off he's still a good bet to win his third straight batting title. As for his power, it's possible the best is yet to come given how well he finished last season--36 home runs and 105 RBI from this date forward. While it's going to be almost impossible for him to sustain his current level of run production (he's on pace for 185 RBI thanks to his absurd .509/.586/.912 batting line with runners in scoring position), he could benefit from even more RBI opportunities once Austin Jackson returns from his hamstring injury early next week.

Until then, look for him to do some serious damage when the last-place Minnesota Twins come to the Motor City for a four-game set this weekend.

Best Pitching Season of the 1920s

Dazzy Vance 1924 (10.3 bWAR)

Coming off back-to-back 18 win seasons, Vance enjoyed the best year of his Hall of Fame career at the age of 33. He won the major league pitching Triple Crown by topping both leagues with 28 wins, 262 strikeouts and a 2.16 ERA, which worked out to be an ML-best 174 ERA+. He completed 30 of his 34 starts, amassed over 300 innings pitched and still maintained the sport's best WHIP, hit rate, strikeout rate and K/BB ratio.

On August 23rd, Vance set the then-NL-record for strikeouts in a nine-inning game by fanning 15 Chicago Cubs in his complete game victory. A month later, he again made history at Chicago's expense by fanning three Cubbies on nine pitches, becoming the fifth National League pitcher/seventh major leaguer to toss an "immaculate inning."

Though his Brooklyn Robins were unable to unseat John McGraw's New York Giants in the National League standings, Vance beat out Rogers Hornsby for league MVP honors. I can't say I agree with that one considering Hornsby batted .424--still the modern record--and was worth 12 (!) wins above replacement. Rajah was most likely penalized because his St. Louis Cardinals finished two dozen games below .500, though without him they probably would have been three dozen games under .500. Interestingly, Walter Johnson took home the AL trophy. The only other time both MVP awards went to non position players? 1968, the Year of the Pitcher, when Denny McLain and Bob Gibson won.

Some more notes from Vance's terrific campaign:

• Opponents batted just .213/.269/.279 off Vance that year
• His average GameScore was a 69
• Brooklyn went 29-6 (.829) when Vance pitched, 63-56 (.529) when he didn't 
• Of Vance's ML-best 30 complete games, just three were shutouts
• Went beyond nine innings on five occassions. On May 17th in St. Louis, he lasted 13 innings to earn the complete game W
• Surrendered multiple home runs in a game just once all year
•  His 262 strikeouts were more than any two pitchers combined and nearly twice as many as runner-up Burleigh Grimes. He also compiled more than two times the bWAR of any NL hurler
• By himself, Vance accounted for almost eight percent of the Senior Circuit's strikeouts
• Had eight games in which he whiffed ten or more batters
• Won 14 games at home and 14 on the road
• Earned run breakdown

        0 runs--7 starts 

        1 run--7 starts

        2 runs--6 starts

        3 runs--7 starts

        4 runs--3 starts

        5+ runs--4 starts

Best Offensive Season of the 1920s--Babe Ruth (1921)

Cabrera Wins Triple Crown

Cabrera mashed his way to the Triple Crown in 2012 (SBNation)

Miguel Cabrera accomplished something no baseball player has done in 45 years. He led the league in home runs, runs batted in, and batting average, becoming the first man since Carl Yastrzemski to win the Triple Crown. Cabrera’s 44 homers and 139 RBI topped the majors, and his .330 batting average made him the American League batting champ for the second year in a row.

Since 1900, the Triple Crown has been achieved 14 times by a dozen different players (Rogers Hornsby and Ted Williams, the best pure hitters of all time, did it twice) but Cabrera is the only third baseman to win it. He dominated in other statistical categories, too, leading the league in slugging percentage, OPS, total bases and extra base hits. Cabrera could be in line for his first Most Valuable Player award after leading his Tigers to their second consecutive division title.

The scary thing is, 2012 isn't even the best season of his career. Looking at OPS and OPS+, he was better last year, and in 2010, too.

It wasn’t until September that Cabrera emerged as a legitimate threat to win the Triple Crown. Josh Hamilton was leading the league in homers and RBI for much of the season, and Trout seemed to have a stranglehold on the batting crown. Their early success forced Cabrera to play catch-up for most of the summer, and only in the season’s final weeks did he pass them on the strength of his monster second half (.337/.407/.667 with 26 home runs and 68 RBI after the All-Star Break). 

They say slow and steady wins the race. Miguel Cabrera is both painfully slow–he grounded into more double plays than anyone else this year–and he is freakishly steady.

 And sure enough, he won the race.

Cabrera receives a standing ovation from the Kansas City crowd (NYTimes)

Miguel Cabrera Threatening Triple Crown

Cabrera's torrid hitting has him on the verge of making baseball history (CBS)

The Detroit Tigers mauled the Minnesota Twins 8-0 at Comerica Park yesterday to move within half a game of the division leading Chicago White Sox.  Doug Fister fired a complete game shutout, striking out seven and tossing 117 pitches to preserve Detroit's bullpen for today's crucial doubleheader.  Jim Leyland's Tigers scored early and often, scoring all eight of their runs in the first four frames and sending Twins starter Sam Deduno to an early shower.  Austin Jackson belted his first pitch out of the park and Detroit chased him from the game with a five run third inning keyed by Delmon Young's three-run jack.

Their scoring was punctuated by Miguel Cabrera's solo shot off Anthony Swarzak, a towering fly ball into into the left field seats. All Josh Willingham could do was admire the majestic drive as it sailed over his head and the fence.  It was Cabrera's only hit of the day, but he made it count.  This booming big fly was Miggy's 42nd of the season and tied Josh Hamilton for the major league lead. MC Hammer's .332 batting average is still tops in the Junior Circuit, and his 131 RBI lead both leagues. For good measure, the seven time All-Star also leads all hitters in slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+, total bases, extra base hits, and runs created (tied with Ryan Braun), building a compelling case for his first Most Valuable Player award. It's been a banner year for Cabrera, the finest of his Cooperstown bound career.

But right now, there's only one question on everybody's mind: can Cabrera win the Triple Crown?

Not since 1967 has somebody led the league in home runs, RBI and batting average so late in the season. That player was Carl Yastrzemski, of course, the last man to win a Triple Crown.  With a week and a half of games left to play, Cabrera is poised to accomplish a feat that hasn't been achieved in 45 years. If he pulls it off, he will make some pretty impressive history. Since 1900, the Triple Crown has been achieved 13 times by eleven different players (Rogers Hornsby and Ted Williams won it twice) but never by a third baseman. In fact, no infielder has done it since Lou Gehrig in 1934.  A Detroit Tiger hasn't hit the trifecta since 1909 when Ty Cobb became the first and only Motown masher to do so.

But Cabrera has always been a perennial Triple Crown threat. He's a machine.  Every year he stays healthy, puts up monster numbers and finds himself at or near the top in multiple offensive categories. He's already won a batting title (last year), been a home run champion (2008) and ranked first in RBI (2010), just not all in the same season. Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols are the only other active players with "career" Triple Crowns. He's clearly surpassed Pujols as the premier right-handed batter in the game. Joey Votto may still be the better pure hitter, but a torn meniscus sidelined him for much of the summer and he's failed to go yard since returning to action on September 5th. Right now, Cabrera is the best hitter in baseball, and it's not really close.

Fueled by a late season power binge (ten homers in his past 20 games), Detroit's slugging third baseman has finally caught Hamilton, who's dealing with a sinus issue and recorded just one at-bat this week. The 2010 AL MVP flew back to Texas for some tests and will miss today's series finale with the Mariners, but his status beyond the weekend remains uncertain. And with the Rangers guaranteed to clinch a playoff berth any day now, don't expect them to rush Hamilton back.  They'll want their superstar healthy and fully rested for October as they look to capture their third consecutive American League pennant, something no team has done since the days of Joe Torre's 1998-'01 New York Yankees dynasty.

Cabrera has used his September surge to capitalize on Hamilton's absence, but he's not in the clear just yet.  His RBI lead appears to be safe, but Mike Trout is still in the mix for the batting title, and he's fully capable of catching fire at a moment's notice. Hamilton is always a threat to go on a tear, depending on when he returns.  Edwin Encarnacion trails the leaders by just two home runs, while Curtis Granderson and Adam Dunn are sitting on 39 bombs.  Any of them could make up that ground in one game.

Today's doubleheader represents a prime opportunity for Cabrera to feast on Minnesota's feeble pitching staff.  The Twins have the worst ERA in the American League and have allowed the second most home runs despite calling pitching-friendly Target Field home.  Expect Miggy to inflict additional damage today at their expense, for he owns a 1.282 OPS and 21 RBI in 13 games against them this season.  P.J. Walters and Scott Diamond are today's probable starters/victims.  If the Tigers sweep and Chicago loses, Detroit will vault into first place.  They will be alone at the top of the division for the first time since July 22nd.

And for that they can thank Cabrera, their one-man wrecking crew.