Red Sox Rundown

Boston's ace has not lived up to his new contract so far (Over The Monster)

Got to answer a few questions about the Sox last month from fellow Baseball Blogger Alliance member Peter Schiller over at baseballreflections.com. Thanks for the shout-out Pete!

Q: How are the Red Sox’s offseason acquisitions working out so far? Any concerns?

A: Alright. Their four main acquisitions were David Price, Craig Kimbrel, Carson Smith, and Chris Young. Price has been up-and-down, but overall he’s made the rotation better. Kimbrel has been shaky at times, but for the most part has been about as good as advertised. Smith has been hurt all year, so he hasn’t made any impact. Young has been solid in left field, but John Farrell’s had to over-rely on him with alternatives Brock Holt and Blake Swihart out for extended periods of time.  Price hasn’t been himself, which is definitely a concern when you’ve got him signed to the most expensive contract ever for a pitcher, and Smith underwent Tommy John which is never a positive.

Q: Who has been the most disappointing player so far this season? Will they improve as the season goes on?

A: Gotta be Price. The Sox are paying him close to $1 million per start and roughly half of his starts have been duds. He’s running the highest ERA of his career and has struggled against weak offenses like Tampa Bay and New York. He’ll have innings where he just loses it and completely melts down, which you typically don’t see from your ace. That said, he should improve as his peripherals are excellent (he leads the league in strikeouts) and he’s gotten unlucky with balls in play and strand rate. He was a monster for Toronto in the second half last year, and if he can do that again his rough first half will be forgotten.

Q: Who has been the most surprising player so far this season? Can they sustain this pace?

A: It’s a toss-up between Jackie Bradley Jr., who’s been the team’s MVP after not being able to hit at all during first three seasons (save for one month last year), and Steven Wright, who’s emerged as a Cy Young candidate and could potentially start the All-Star Game. I guess you’d have to say Wright is more surprising given his age (31) and the fact that he almost didn’t make Boston’s rotation this year. Bradley had shown flashes of brilliance before -- so we knew he had it in him -- and he’s 26, which is a normal breakout age.  Bradley has a decent shot of keeping this up based on his minor league track record, but Wright is a knuckleballer which makes his dominance unlikely to continue.

Q: What top prospects might we see before the All Star break (What type of player are they: 5 tool player, speedster, defensive, power hitter, etc.)? What will be their impact on the team?

A: Andrew Benintendi may get some run in left field with the injuries to Holt, Swihart and Young.  He’s a 5 tool player who could help Boston down the stretch, allowing Holt and Swihart to slide back to their natural positions and allowing Farrell to use Young strictly against lefties. If the Sox don’t promote him this summer, he’ll probably get called up for a cup of coffee when rosters expand in September.

The Red Sox have arguably baseball's top prospect in Moncada (Fox Sports)

Q: What top prospects are currently being blocked by current players on the big club? Will this make them trade bait, will they switch positions or will the vet eventually be traded?

A: Yoan Moncada is Boston’s best prospect and most untouchable asset, but he’s currently blocked at second base by Dustin Pedroia. Moncada seems unlikely to be traded (unless it’s for an ace-level starter in return) and Pedroia’s not going anywhere, which means he’s going to have to change positions at some point. He could convert to an outfielder, like Mookie Betts did, or possibly play third. He can play pretty much anywhere with his athleticism, so the Sox shouldn’t have any problem finding a place for him.

Q: What is the team lacking that either wasn’t addressed in the offseason or the offseason acquisition isn’t cutting it?

A: Quality starting pitching beyond Price, who hasn’t been nearly as good as expected. They have three good starters with him, Wright, and Rick Porcello, but the back of the rotation has been a dumpster fire. It’s clear the team will need to trade for another starter or two as the deadline rolls around, which will probably require sacrificing one of their prized prospects.

Q: Are they better or worse off now than they were at the end of last season?

A: There’s no question that they’re better, although it’s important to remember that they were one of baseball’s better teams in the second half last year. Adding Price gives them the ace they’ve lacked since trading Jon Lester, while Kimbrel gives the bullpen a much-needed power arm. Losing Pablo Sandoval for the year is addition by subtraction, especially since it allows Travis Shaw to play everyday. Hanley Ramirez has proven to be a competent first baseman, which is a huge upgrade over his terrible defense in left field last year.

Q: What is your predicted outcome for the team this season? Why?

A: I expect they’ll win 88-90 games and one of the two wild cards. They’re really strong up the middle and have arguably the league’s best starting pitcher and closer, but lack of depth in the rotation will ultimately prevent them from winning 95 games and the division.

Q: What players need to go (traded, released, etc.) & why?

A: Sandoval needs to go, but there’s no way to get rid of him. His trade value’s at an all-time low, and releasing him would mean eating the next three years of his contract. The Red Sox should also part ways with catcher Ryan Hanigan, as they have two great young catchers in Swihart and Christian Vazquez. They should also try to find a way to get rid of Clay Buchholz, since he’s no longer a reliable starter and doesn’t make much sense as a bullpen option.

Baseball's This is 40

Can Ortiz (left) and Rodriguez still hack it at 40? (Sporting News)

David Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez are about to embark on their age-40 seasons. Based on how good both were at 39, many are expecting them to remain productive this year. However, it's important to remember that, even in today's world of modern medicine and training, it's still incredibly rare to be a good baseball player at age 40. The list of productive seasons by 40 year-olds is a short one, but as you can see below it's happened enough so that another strong season by Rodriguez and/or Ortiz isn't out of the question. Here are some of the best performances by 40 year-old position players in baseball history, listed in chronological order (notice that there have been much more lately).

1927 Ty Cobb

With the home run boom in full swing, Cobb's slashing brand of baseball was already becoming obsolete. But while he may have felt like a dinosaur as the game changed around him, he was still good at doing the things he knew best, namely singles and steals. In the Georgia Peach's first season with the A's but last season as an everyday player, he batted .357/.440/.482 with 93 RBI and 22 steals--good for 4.4 bWAR.

1930 Sam Rice

This was a great year for hitters regardless of age, so you can't fault Rice for joining the party. His counting stats were off-the-charts (121 runs, 207 hits, 13 triples), and his rate stats (.349/.407/.457) were pretty good, too. Altogether, Rice was worth 4.7 bWAR--the highest total of his career.

1947 Luke Appling

Appling was a name that came up a lot the last few years when people were comparing Derek Jeter to past shortstops at the same age. Appling was pretty much the only one still able to hit a damn as he approached middle-age. He remained as robust as ever at 40, compiling 4.6 bWAR and making his final All-Star team. The future Hall of Famer also slugged a career-high eight home runs and batted .306/.386/.412 (126 OPS+)--exceptional numbers for a shortstop back then.

1971 Willie Mays

By wRC+, Mays at 40 was better than any baseball player who ever lived. That shouldn't come as a surprise, seeing as how he was at almost every other age, too. Compared to the rest of his body of work, 1971 was actually a very strange season for the Say Hey Kid. He walked a league-leading and career-high 112 times, which gave him a league-leading and career-high .425 OBP, but he also struck out 123 times--his lone year in triple digits. He still had enough of his trademark power and speed to muscle 18 home runs and 24 doubles while stealing 23 bases in 26 tries--his most thefts since 1960. Mays was still playing center field on a regular basis, too, which helped him rack up 6.3 bWAR in what turned out to be his last great season.

1974 Hank Aaron

After getting Babe Ruth's record out of the way early on, the newly minted home run king went on to enjoy the last fruitful season of his illustrious career (as well as his last with the Braves). He had a record-20th consecutive season with at least 20 homers, walked more than he struck out, and batted a rock-solid .268/.341/.491 (128 OPS+). He promptly fell apart after moving back to Milwaukee and becoming a full-time DH, but in the year he broke Ruth's record he was still a pretty good ballplayer.

Few players have been better at 40 than Aaron (left) and Mays (Bronx Banter)

1981 Pete Rose

Charlie Hustle was still a hit machine at 40, leading the majors in hits for the seventh and final time while batting .325 with a .391 OBP. It probably helped that '81 was cut short by a strike, otherwise Rose might have worn down. It turned out to be his last great season, though he hung on for another six years to become baseball's hit king.

1986 Reggie Jackson

The DH definitely prolonged Mr. October's career, helping him play six seasons out west after leaving New York. While his bat was all out of postseason heroics by that point, it still had a fair amount of juice left, which he used to bat .241/.379/.408 (116 OPS+) with 18 home runs for the division-winning Angels (a team eventually undone by the late Dave Henderson's homer).

1987 Darrell Evans

Evans was another player who never seemed to get old, remaining productive through age 41 (ditching third base for first and DH helped). His age-40 campaign was actually one of his best, resulting in the third-highest bWAR (4.9) of his 21-year career. Aided by the offensive explosion that occurred across baseball that year, Evans bashed 34 home runs, totaled 99 RBI and worked 100 walks, giving him a strong .257/.379/.501 batting line and 135 OPS+. Those numbers would likely represent a best-case scenario for A-Rod and Ortiz next year.

1988 Carlton Fisk

Fisk only played 76 games--his fewest since 1974--but that didn't stop him from winning his third and final Silver Slugger behind the plate. His half-season numbers--a .277/.377/.542 line (155 OPS+) with 19 homers and 50 RBI--would be phenomenal for anyone in a full season, let alone a 40 year-old backstop. This year is one of many reasons why Fisk was the best "old" catcher in baseball history.

1992 Dave Winfield

Winfield was still plugging along at age 40, joining the Blue Jays for their first-ever World Series championship. The future Hall of Famer played a big part in helping them get over the hump, finishing fifth in the AL MVP vote after batting .290/.377/.491 with 26 home runs and 108 RBI, giving Toronto another slugger to pair with Joe Carter. Winfield would go on to play with Minnesota for two years and Cleveland for one before calling it a career.

1997 Paul Molitor

Molitor remained a productive batsman for the Twins at age 40, batting .305/.351/.435 with 32 doubles, 10 home runs and 89 RBI. You could certainly get a lot worse from your DH.

1999 Rickey Henderson

Henderson had been playing for 20 years by this point, but his skills remained largely intact. Suiting up for the Mets that year, Henderson had the last great season of his career, hitting .315/.423/.466 (128 OPS+) with 12 home runs and 37 steals.

2003 Edgar Martinez

Martinez bounced back from a down and injury-plagued 2002 to enjoy his last great season at 40. Seattle's Hall of Fame-worthy DH helped the Mariners to a 93-win season by batting .294/.406/.489 (141 OPS+) with 24 homers and 98 RBI, bringing him just shy of 500 doubles and 300 homers for his career (he would reach both milestones in his next, and final, season).

2007 Moises Alou

Most people don't remember just how good Alou was, or how he literally didn't age. Over the last five years of his career, which cover his age 37-41 seasons, he hit .312/.376/.539. He was terrific in limited action for the Mets in 2007, slashing .341/.392/.524 (137 OPS+) with 13 homers and 49 RBI in 87 games. Unfortunately, that was one of the years New York collapsed down the stretch, denying Alou one last shot at postseason glory (the same thing happened again in 2008, and Alou wisely retired).

2007 Kenny Lofton

Like Henderson, Lofton was another speedster who aged well. In what was his final season, he batted .296/.367/.414 with 86 runs and 23 steals while splitting time between Texas and Cleveland, joining the latter just in time for their ill-fated playoff run (somewhere, J.D. Drew is trying to smile).

2010 Jim Edmonds

Edmonds came back from sitting out all of 2009 after not getting a worthwhile offer, signed a minor league contract with the Brewers and finished up his career with a solid season, going out on his own terms. While he only played 86 games, the former star center fielder was still productive at the plate, hitting .276/.342/.504 (125 OPS+) between his stint with Milwaukee and a late-season trade to Cincinnati.

Senor Consistency

Ortiz just became another year older, but that won't stop him from raking (iSportsWeb_

Saddened by the news that David Ortiz is retiring after next year. The game is not only losing one of its best hitters, but also one of its steadiest.

When the Red Sox won the World Series in 2013, his teammates began calling him Senor Cooperstown. While that's still a viable nickname, especially after he slammed his 500th home run last season, I have another one for him; Senor Consistency.

Few players have been better at putting up the same numbers year after year than Ortiz. His 2013 was a spitting image of his 2011, sandwiched around an injury-shortened but still beastly 2012. His 2009 was a lot like his 2008, and his 2005 mirrored what he did in 2004. He's hit at least 20 home runs every year going back to 2002, and in only one of those years (2009) did he fail to slug .500.

This year it looked like Big Papi would fall far short of his usual production after a miserable start, but he rebounded with a monster second half to finish with virtually the same numbers from his 2014 campaign:

Ortiz's 2014 602 PA 136 H 35 HR 104 RBI 75 BB 95 SO .263/.355/.517 140 OPS+ 2.9 bWAR

Ortiz's 2015 614 PA 144 H 37 HR 108 RBI 77 BB 95 SO .273/.360/.553 141 OPS+ 3.2 bWAR

Incredibly, Ortiz has nothing to show for those two years awards-wise. He received one measly 10th place MVP vote (not surprising considering Boston finished last both years), was not an All-Star either year, and was passed over for the Silver Slugger both times (to Kendrys Morales this year--a far inferior hitter). Maybe people are just so used to him putting up monster numbers that they aren't impressed by them anymore.

Papi turned 40 yesterday, so perhaps 2016 will be the year he finally drops off. But based on the last 15 years, I wouldn't bet on it.

Papi Powers 500th

Ortiz follows through on the 500th moon shot of his career (Telezkope.com)

They say baseball is a young man's game, and with a few notable exceptions, they are right. David Ortiz is one such exception.

Two months shy of his 40th birthday, Ortiz is still one of the best hitters in baseball. He's posted huge numbers for a lackluster Red Sox team, batting .275/.361/.556 with 34 home runs, 31 doubles and 95 RBI. It's another typically excellent season for Ortiz, who continues to defy his age as he reaches a point where most of his contemporaries have retired. Only four players who appeared in a game in 1997 are still playing today, and David Ortiz is one of them. He's aged like fine wine, amassing more home runs during his 30s than all but eight players in big league history.

This season--his 19th--has been a microcosm of his entire career. He started slow, casting doubts about his performance, only to turn it around and finish with a bang. A lot of people gave up on him, but as always he proved them wrong.

The Red Sox first gave him the chance to prove people wrong 13 years ago after the Twins released him. Although he'd swatted 20 home runs and slugged .500 in 2002, it was the height of the steroid era and teams weren't exactly clamoring for his services. If they had been, then Ortiz wouldn't have signed a one-year, $1.25 million deal to join Boston--a team that couldn't guarantee him regular playing time due to its logjam of corner infielders and DH-types.

At the time, nobody could have known that Theo Epstein, in his eighth week on the job as Boston's wunderkind GM, had just acquired one of the most prodigious power hitters in major league history--not to mention one of the best bargains ever. Not even in Epstein's wildest dreams did he foresee Ortiz being part of three championship teams (and counting), breaking Jimmie Foxx's single season home run record for a Red Sox, or setting a new franchise record for most 30-homer seasons.

There's also no way he could have envisioned Ortiz eventually joining the 500 home run club. When Ortiz signed with the Red Sox, he had just 58 home runs to his name--fewer than any other member of the 500 club had at the same age (by which point several had already hit that many or more in a single season), making 500 all but unattainable. To get there, he'd have to average 34 long balls per year until his 40th birthday--a near-impossible task for someone who had never topped 20 home runs in a season.

Ortiz needed a ridiculous run to reach the milestone--a monster peak in his late 20s/early 30s followed by a decade of sustained excellence. Had he tailed off in his 30s, like most players do, he would have fallen way short. Time and the odds were against him.

So when Ortiz started slipping in his mid-30s, averaging 27 home runs per year from age 32-36 after blasting 42 per year from 27-31, 500 looked out of reach. When the 2013 season began, the then-37 year-old still had 99 to go and injuries were becoming a problem, as he suffered a season-ending Achilles injury while rounding the bases on a home run in 2012 and opened 2013 on the disabled list. While his bat was still potent, his body was breaking down, and it seemed like only a matter of time before his vicious swing followed suit.

But Ortiz wasn't close to done. He responded with his seventh 30-homer, 100 RBI season in 2013, followed by his eighth in 2014. That put him within range--one big season shy of 500.

Ortiz gets a congratulatory hug from longtime teammate Dustin Pedroia (WCVB)

Still, it seemed unlikely Ortiz would surpass 500 this year, let alone with three weeks remaining in the season. Ortiz opened the year 34 homers shy of the milestone, a number he'd reached just once in the previous seven seasons. And while he'd finished 2014 with 35, the likelihood of him repeating that number again in his age-39 season was low.

Any hope of him getting to 500 appeared dashed two months into the season, with Ortiz mired in one of the worst slumps of his career. He'd managed just six long balls a third of the way through the year, putting him in serious danger of finishing a season under 20 for the first time since 2001. It looked like we'd have to wait until next year for number 500.

But as spring turned to summer, Ortiz rediscovered his power stroke. He crushed seven home runs in June and seven more in July. He socked nine in August, bringing him to within five of 500. With a decent month of September, he'd get there before fall arrived.

Ortiz remained dialed in through the first two weeks of the month, allowing him to reach the milestone with plenty of time to spare. He began this weekend's series in Tampa Bay sitting on 498. After slugging no. 499 his first time up Saturday, he wasted no time in drilling his 500th. Leading off the top of the fifth with Boston ahead 7-0, he belted a long home run into the right field bleachers off Matt Moore--a lefty who would have given Ortiz fits five years ago or even five months ago. But when Ortiz is locked in, he rakes everybody.

While the 500 home run club isn't as exclusive as it used to be thanks to the steroid era, Ortiz's bomb was still special for a number of reasons. He joined former teammate Manny Ramirez in becoming one of four players to hit their 500th homer as a member of the Red Sox--the most of any franchise (pretty surprising, actually, considering Fenway Park is one of the tougher parks to homer in). Interestingly, the other two to do so--Ted Williams and Jimmie Foxx--were also one-time teammates, with Foxx crushing his 500th during the Kid's rookie season.

That Ortiz reached the big number with a multi-homer game was also exceptionally rare: Albert Pujols is the only other one to do it. Fittingly enough, Pujols is also the only player with more home runs since Ortiz joined the Red Sox.

Lastly, Ortiz is only the fourth player with 500 homers and three World Series rings, but the first to have never won any of those rings with the Yankees. The others--Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, and Reggie Jackson--won multiple championships in pinstripes.

With 500 in the books, the only question is how much higher can Ortiz climb? There's still plenty of time to pass Eddie Murray (504), by season's end, but he'll have to wait until next year before he can start really rising up the ranks. Another 30-homer season would put him in Mantle/Foxx territory, not to mention trigger his team option for 2017. If Papi has another 50 homers in his bat, that would put him above Mike Schmidt but behind Manny and Pujols, just outside the top-15. Should he struggle next year and decide to call it quits, he could still make his way into the top-20 if he belts #522 to pass Frank Thomas, Willie McCovey, and Teddy Ballgame.

But no matter where he winds up, Ortiz has had a remarkable run. The once-nixed Twin has secured a place among baseball's elite, alongside names nobody was comparing him to 13 years ago. The Mike Trouts and Bryce Harpers of the world have conditioned us to expect greatness from day one, but not every star is one from the start. Sometimes it takes time. Sometimes it requires patience. And sometimes all somebody needs is a second chance.

MLB September Storylines

Dodger aces Greinke (L) and Kershaw are players to follow in September (ESPN)

Labor Day weekend is upon us (seriously, how did that happen?), which means there's but one month left of the regular season. Even with most of the divisions and playoff races already decided, several exciting stories have yet to be played out. Will the Blue Jays win their division, thus ending the longest postseason drought in American professional sports? Can Houston hang on in the AL West? And just who is going to put themselves over the top in various award races?

Even if your team is toast and you can't wait for football to start, there's still enough going on to keep fans engaged into October. Here's a sample:

1. David Ortiz's march to 500 home runs
It's been another tough year for the Red Sox but another great one for Ortiz, who's closing in on his 500th career long ball. He has five to go which, given his feverish home run pace (23 taters in his last 70 games), shouldn't take too long.

2. Clayton Kershaw's quest for 300 strikeouts
As Jeff Sullivan noted yesterday, Kershaw's up to 251 K's on the year after fanning 15 Giants in Wednesday night's masterpiece. With five or six starts remaining, he has a chance to become the first pitcher since 2002 to eclipse 300 punchouts. If he does that, a third straight Cy Young award may be in the cards.

3. AL East showdown
As always, the AL East has become a dogfight between its top two teams, one being the Yankees of course. For once, however, the other combatant isn't Boston. It's the Blue Jays, currently clinging to a 1.5 game lead over the Bombers. Toronto will get every opportunity to widen the gap down the stretch with the rest of its games coming against sub-.500 teams and New York.  The Yankees have a similarly easy slate, however, so it wouldn't be surprising to see first place change hands several times over the next month.

4. How will the West be Won?
The fate of the AL West is still up in the air, for it's the only division where the third place team isn't more than 10 games out. It has been turned completely upside down this year, with Houston and Texas (both losers of 90+ games last year) rising to the top while Oakland and Seattle (winners of 88 and 87, respectively) sinking to the bottom. In between are last year's division champs--the Angels--still trying to find their way. LA's coming off a terrible August but could catch up if they play like they did in July. Houston's had control of first place for most of the year, but now find themselves holding on for dear life with a two game edge over the surging Rangers. So hold your breath, Astros fans, and don't exhale until this time next month.

5. Who will snag the second AL wild card?
The Pirates and Cubs have both NL wild card spots wrapped up, and whoever loses the Yankees-Blue Jays duel is guaranteed the first wild card in the AL. The second wild card berth, however, is very much up for grabs. Texas currently leads by one game over Minnesota, with Los Angeles and Tampa Bay looming not far behind. The Twins and Angels are fading fast, while the Rangers have rolled since trading for Cole Hamels. Fingers crossed for a tie, which would mean a play-in game for the play-in game!

6. Will Washington pull it together?
It's now or never for the Nats, who've hovered around .500 all summer and allowed the Mets to break away. They're still close enough (six games) that Washington could steal the division out from under them with a huge September, but time is dwindling. Which team will the Nationals be this month: the one that everyone predicted to win 100 games or the one that might wind up with a losing record? I say they finish strong but still miss the playoffs.

7. St. Louis shoots for 100
Improved parity has made 100-win teams increasingly rare--there were none in each of the past three seasons. Only one team has a legitimate shot to do it this year, and it's not the preseason favorites. The best team in baseball this year has been the St. Louis Cardinals, currently 86-47 and steaming towards their third straight division title. With 29 games remaining on their schedule, the Redbirds need only go .500 to reach the century mark.

8. Does anyone get to 50 homers?
There have been just two instances of a player surpassing 50 home runs during the past seven seasons, but it's possible we'll see two or more players crack that many this year. Nelson Cruz--last year's long ball champion and the current major league leader--needs 11 to get there while Chris Davis--the last to break the 50 barrier--is a dozen away. Look for Carlos Gonzalez, who's cranked 31 over the last three months, to make a run as well.

9. Award races
The AL MVP was seemingly Mike Trout's to lose until about a month ago, at which point he and his Angels went in the toilet while Josh Donaldson and the Blue Jays took off. Now Donaldson appears to have the upper hand, but that could change in an instant if Trout gets back to being himself and leads LA to the playoffs. The NL MVP belongs to Bryce Harper no matter how often Joey Votto reaches base, but Zack Greinke could become the second straight Dodger pitcher to win it if he continues to be lights-out in September.

Speaking of Greinke, he and Kershaw will duke it out for the NL Cy Young award. Wonder which Dodger (and former Cy) voters prefer; Greinke with his sparkling ERA or Kershaw and his gaudy strikeout totals and only slightly less-sparkling ERA? The AL trophy is probably going to Dallas Keuchel (who saw that one coming?), but don't count Chris Sale out just yet.

The AL Rookie of the Year race is a tight one too, with Carlos Correa, Miguel Sano, and Andrew Heaney all having strong cases. The NL field is a two-horse race between Joc Pederson and Kris Bryant, though Noah Syndergaard deserves consideration as well.

10. September call-ups
No matter where your team falls in the standings, it's worth checking in on them throughout September as their future stars get a first taste of the big leagues. For instance, Corey Seager made his major league debut last night.

Ortiz Over Slow Start

Ortiz, 39, was mired in a nasty slump for the better part of two months (4 KomMedia)

David Ortiz is no stranger to slow starts. In 2008, 2009, and again in 2010, Ortiz slumped badly at the beginning of the year. Every time fans and media questioned whether he was done, and each time Papi proved them wrong. Granted, those were the three worst seasons of his Boston career, but he still averaged 28 home runs, 97 RBI, and an .854 OPS, proving there was plenty of life left in his bat.

This year, however, it really looked like Ortiz was done for good. For more than two months he was helpless at the plate, scuffling through his worst slump in five years. Following play April 27th, he was hitting .200/.312/.415. One month later his line was even worse, at .216/.303/.377. A closer look revealed that he was not the victim of bad luck or small sample size, but rather was suffering from increased ground balls (which, in his case, means more outs into the shift) and weaker contact. Papi had become, at age 39, a demonstrably worse hitter.

John Farrell had seen enough, and gave his struggling DH a few days off to clear his head. The break seemed to pay off when Ortiz responded with six hits over his next four games, but the boost proved short-lived. On June 10th--more than a third of the way through the season--he checked in batting a lowly .219/.297/.372 with just six home runs and 21 RBI to his name.

More troubling than Ortiz's terrible average and on-base figures was the disappearance of his once-prodigious power. Just one year removed from his eighth 30-homer, 100 RBI season (and his second straight with a .255 ISO), Ortiz was on pace to finish with his worst power numbers since his forgettable Minnesota days. His signature power was absent for much of the spring: from April 25th through June 9th, he managed only two home runs and 13 RBI.

As his failures and frustrations mounted, it appeared increasingly obvious that Ortiz was near the end of the line. Boston's cleanup hitter was dragging down the lineup, with numbers that would make Mario Mendoza wince. Dan Shaughnessy compared Papi's pursuit of 500 home runs (he began the year with 466) to Tim Wakefield's interminable (and ultimately costly) quest to reach 200 career wins.  There were calls for him to be removed from the starting lineup against lefties--long his kryptonite--so that Hanley Ramirez could mercifully take a break from left field on occasion. Not wanting upset his team's elder (and notoriously cranky) statesman, Farrell refused, dutifully penciling in Ortiz's name every night in spite of his worsening skid.

With Ortiz's cold spell persisting into June, Boston faced a rather uncomfortable situation. Ortiz, who is due a pricey vesting option in 2016 (which, barring a season-ending injury, he will reach), swore he would block any trade, which he can do thanks to his 10-5 rights (10 years in the majors, five with one team). Boston and Ortiz were stuck together like Matt Damon and that guy who looks nothing like his supposed twin, only nobody was laughing.

Ortiz wouldn't budge, and Farrell wasn't about to bench his biggest star and a future Hall of Famer. All the while, Boston was stuck in the mud or, more accurately, the cellar. Even with the Sox stinking up the joint in the first half (and Ortiz was a big reason why), the team's longest tenured member preferred to go down with the ship rather than abandon them for a contender. Both sides refused, or perhaps were unable, to give up on each other.

Ortiz has turned his season around, but the Red Sox haven't (Fox Sports Radio)

Fast forward six weeks, and Farrell's patience (or was it just stubbornness?) has paid off.

Slump? What slump? All is fine with the three-time World Series champion's swing, thank you very much. The ball is jumping off his bat again and flying out of the ballpark. His OPS has climbed back over .800--a 133 point improvement since tumbling to .670 on June 10th. He's righted the ship, even if the team he plays for hasn't.

Slowly but surely, Papi's bat has come around. He rediscovered his power stroke as the weather warmed, slugging seven home runs and driving in 15 over the last three weeks of June. He still wasn't hitting for average, with just three multi-hit games and a .254 mark during that time, but at least he was back to clearing the fences with regularity.

In July he's been back to the Ortiz of old, tearing the cover off the ball and making pitchers pay for their mistakes. His hot streak culminated in one of the best games of his career Sunday night. Both the Red Sox and Ortiz were at their best, as Papi paced Boston's 11-1 romp over Detroit with two home runs and a career-high seven RBI as part of a four-hit day. He continued his torrid hitting last night as well, bashing his 20th* homer of the season off John Danks (a lefty!) in the bottom of the first.

*That makes 14 consecutive seasons with at least 20 round-trippers for Ortiz--the longest streak in the majors. Once in danger of missing that plateau, he now has his sights set on for another 30-homer season, which would be his third straight and ninth overall.

With 14 homers and a .616 slugging percentage over the past six weeks, Ortiz has followed up one of his deepest funks with one of his hottest tears. After the drought has come a deluge, washing away the misery of Ortiz's April and May. Someday he'll stop hitting, but that day doesn't appear to be coming soon. The lesson, as always, is never count David Ortiz out.

Can Ortiz Keep Raking?

Ortiz is 39 years young (NextImpulseSports)

David Ortiz turns 39 years old today, and he's still going strong.

Five years ago it seemed unfathomable that Big Papi would still be a productive hitter one year shy of his 40th birthday, much less one of the best hitters in baseball. The end seemed near when, as a 33 year-old, Ortiz batted .238/.332/.462 (100 wRC+) with 134 strikeouts and 0.0 fWAR in 2009. His situation grew even more dire the following spring when he got off to a miserable start with only one home run, four RBI, and .524 OPS in April. Papi appeared to be in full-blown decline.

Of course, we now know that was merely a rough patch in what has been an otherwise stellar 12-year run in Boston for Ortiz. He rebounded to finish 2010 strong with 31 homers, 98 RBI, and a .943 OPS over the season's final five months. He was even better over the next three years, his age 35-37 seasons. As run-scoring plummeted across the sport, Ortiz's numbers surged as he batted .311/.401/.571 with 82 home runs during that span. Per wRC+, it was tied with Mark McGwire and Edgar Martinez for the seventh-best run that any hitter has ever sustained over those ages.

Last year at 38, Ortiz seemed to slip a bit. His batting line fell to .263/.355/.517, an 86 point drop in OPS from 2013 and a 153 point plunge compared to 2012. That can be explained entirely by his BABiP, which nosedived from .321 in 2013 to .256 last year. Such a free fall was not surprising given that Ortiz had his highest fly ball rate since 2009 in conjunction with his lowest line drive rate since 2010, but increased defensive shifts likely played a part in that as well. Nevertheless, Ortiz was still extremely productive with a 135 wRC+, .369 wOBA, 35 home runs (fifth in the American League) and 104 RBI (sixth).

So what can we expect from Papi in 2015, his age 39 season? Steamer's very optimistic, projecting him to essentially replicate his 2014 production. The system sees his BABiP regressing closer to the league average, which should pull up his batting average and OBP, but also expects Ortiz to hit for less power. That makes sense, as Ortiz is at an age where power drops off precipitously. It will be tough to him to surpass 30 home runs for the third straight season, as no 39 year-old had ever exceeded 30 taters in a season before Hank Aaron did so (with 40) in 1973 (Steve Finley and Barry Bonds have since achieved this as well).

That said, there's nothing alarming in Ortiz's profile to suggest his numbers are in imminent danger of falling off a cliff. He's a full-time DH playing half his games at one of the friendliest parks for hitters in the majors. Because he rarely played the field and was a part-time player until his mid-20s, he doesn't have as much wear and tear as most 39 year-olds, especially since he's been able to avoid major injuries for much of his career. His plate discipline has remained impeccable, his contact rates are excellent, and he still has tremendous bat speed based on the way he destroyed fastballs last year. His power is intact as well, for his 2014 ISO was identical to his 2013 ISO (.255).

Next year Ortiz might not be the hitter he was three years ago, or even the hitter he was last year, but he still figures to be mighty good. He'll continue to mash, just as he always has.

Ortiz Out

Ailed by a sore wrist and with his Red Sox hopelessly in last place, David Ortiz is likely done for the season. Expect him to ride this pine the weekend while Derek Jeter takes his last victory lap of his farewell tour at America's oldest and most beloved ballpark.

If we've indeed seen the last of Ortiz in 2014, kudos to him for making it through another full season in spite of his age and team's also-ran status. Big Papi continued to hit at age 38 even though nobody else on the Sox did. Though frequently pitched around, he still managed to sock 35 home runs--his most since 2007--and drive in 104 runs--also his most since 2007. That makes eight seasons with at least 30 home runs and 100 RBI with Boston, most all-time.

Though Ortiz was another year older in 2014, his production didn't diminish much. His ISO remained exactly the same, his walk rate held steady and his strikeout rate barely inched upwards. His batted ball distribution shifted significantly--fewer line drives and more fly balls--which explains his improved home run production but sinking BABiP and batting average. That suggests Ortiz was probably uppercutting more, trading singles and doubles for home runs.

That usually doesn't bode well for aging hitters in their late 30s given their declining power, but Ortiz still retained his pop. It cost him nearly 90 points in OPS compared to last year, but he still batted a robust .263/.355/.517 with a .369 wOBA and 135 wRC+. A cut below his eye-popping numbers from the past three years, but still tremendous production in any case.

The Red Sox can only hope that their designated hitter (owed $16 million next year, by the way) can ward off age for another year. That will be difficult if his wrist injury, similar to the one that forced him to the Disabled List in 2008 and triggered two down seasons, impacts his offseason workouts or lingers into spring training. Boston was smart to shut him down now, even if there was no reason for him to be playing at all with the team so far out of contention. They probably would have been better off shutting him down for the season earlier in the month along with Dustin Pedroia.

But hindsight is 20/20, and it's hard to argue with the Sox for letting a healthy Ortiz play. He needs to come back strong next year, however, as his bat is virtually impossible to replace. They need him in the heart of their order, putting up big numbers, doing what he's always done since joining Boston 12 years ago: rake.

Ortiz On Fire

The Red Sox are slumping again, having lost two of three to the Yankees over the weekend and 10 of their last 12, ruthlessly obliterating whatever momentum they seemingly had immediately following the All-Star Break. One of the few Bostonians who's not is David Ortiz, who boldly proclaimed before the start of the second half that was "about to get hotter than Jamaica in the middle of August."

I've never been to Jamaica, but apparently that's pretty hot.

Ortiz, who showed signs of breaking out prior to the All-Star Break, has caught fire over the past two weeks. Counting last night's three-run bomb off the Yankees' Chase Whitley, Papi's socked six homers and knocked in 18 runs over his last 12 games, during which time he's slugged .744. He passed Carl Yastrzemski on the home run list, Mickey Mantle on the RBI list, and gave us this wicked cool bat flip. Ortiz is now up to 26 homers and 82 RBI on the season, comfortably on pace to blow away last year’s totals of 30 and 103 (health permitting, of course) with 51 games still to play. He's projected to finish with 38 and 120, numbers he hasn't reached since 2006.

Though his OPS is down more than 100 points from last year, Ortiz is still the most dangerous bat in Boston's lineup by far. He's tops in slugging, OPS, and total bases. He has twice as many big flies as their number two slugger/cleanup hitter Mike Napoli and nearly twice as many ribbies as the team's second-best RBI man Dustin Pedroia. With so little help around him, it's no wonder Ortiz has been intentionally walked more than anyone else in baseball. 

That says a lot about the lack of protection for Ortiz in the Red Sox lineup. What says even more is that of the 131 times he's reached base this year (excluding his 26 home runs), the people behind him have driven him in only 17 times. That means 87 percent of the time Ortiz has gotten on base, he's been stranded there. Ortiz is slow, but c'mon. 

I guess what I'm trying to say is that it's really impressive Ortiz has stayed hot for so long. If I'm a pitcher, I'm not giving Papi anything to hit unless I absolutely have to (and if I do, it's pitching to the shift by busting him inside). Give him the Barry Bonds treatment. Give him first base and make the other Red Sox beat you, because they've proven time and time again this year that they're incapable of doing that. 

On second thought, I guess that means it doesn't hurt to surrender the occasional long ball to Ortiz, either. 

Yaz or Papi?

As great as Ortiz has been, he can't hold a candle to Yaz 

With David Ortiz passing Carl Yastrzemski on the all-time home run list last night, sports radio was rife today with passionate debate over which one was better.

To me, this isn't even an argument. Yaz by a lot. Case closed.

Now I'll readily concede that Ortiz, at least since he's come over to the Red Sox, has been a better hitter than Yastrzemski. Interestingly enough their career batting averages are identical at .285, and their career OBPs are within a point of each other as well. Both were fantastic in the clutch, too. Still, there's no question that Ortiz, with his 84 point edge in slugging percentage/ISo and superior home run total in about 5,300 fewer plate appearances, has been the superior slugger. Yaz managed only eight seasons with at least 20 homers in his 23-year career, while Ortiz already has 13 such seasons (consecutively, I might add) in his 18 years.

That said, it must also be remembered that the long ball is much more commonplace nowadays than it was when Yaz played. For most of Ortiz's career, baseball teams have typically averaged around one home run per game, usually a little more. Back in Yastrzemski's day, that number tended to be around 0.7 or 0.8. So for Yaz to have as many 40 homer seasons--three--as Ortiz really is quite impressive. For all of Ortiz's dingers, he still has only one home run title--same as Yastrzemski (who, fun fact, shared his with Harmon Killebrew in 1967).

Looking at batting runs, Ortiz also comes out on top on a per-game basis. With 372 batting runs above average in just over 2,000 games, Ortiz has averaged a batting run every 5.5 games played. With 450 in 3,308 games, Yaz tallied one every 7.35 games. A pretty sizable difference, but also note that Yastrzemski produced next to nothing in this category over his final nine seasons, managing only 50 in his last 1,200 or so games. Before 1975 he had 400 batting runs in in just over 2,100 games, meaning he was right there with Ortiz.

So yes, Ortiz been a better hitter and run producer than Yaz was, but not by as much as his advantage in power numbers would suggest. It's really close, actually, after considering the context of the eras in which they played. Yastrzemski's greatest seasons came during the offensively-suppressed 1960s and '70s, while many of Ortiz's best years came when offense was booming in the mid and late 2000s, before the recent downturn for hitters. Thus, Yastrzemski's career adjusted OPS of 130 (134 through age 38) isn't that far off from Ortiz's 139 mark (and, don't forget, was maintained for thousands of more at-bats). Similarly, his .375 wOBA is not dwarfed by Ortiz's .390, but is rather quite comparable.

Also don't forget that Ortiz had Manny Ramirez hitting behind or in front of him during his best seasons. Yaz was surrounded by his fair share of talent, especially during the second half of his career, but never a hitter of Manny's quality (Jim Rice was great, but not quite on Manny's level). Yastrzemski's supporting cast was especially weak during his peak seasons, when Boston's biggest threat besides Yaz was Reggie Smith. Another good player, but no Manny.

But if these past two MVP debates between Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera have taught us anything, it's that there's more to baseball than hitting. With 168 stolen bases, Yastrzemski holds a clear edge on the bases compared to Ortiz, who's managed a meager 15. Yaz was a good baserunner in his younger days and basically broke even for his career in terms of added value there, whereas Ortiz has always been a liability because of his size and lack of foot speed. That closes the gap some.

Then there's defense, which puts Yaz way over the top. A seven-time Gold Glover, Yaz learned to play the Green Monster to perfection and earned a reputation as one of the best defensive outfielders of all-time. In his heyday Yaz was like a young Barry Bonds, a complete package capable of winning ballgames with his bat, legs, and glove. Ortiz, a full-time DH, has only ever been able to win games with the lumber. He almost never plays the field and adds no value via defensive contributions. He can barely play first base competently, let alone one of the trickiest outfields the majors.

So whatever edge one grants to Ortiz for his hitting, a bigger edge must be given to Yastrzemski to account for his better baserunning and superlative defense. According to Baseball-Reference, Yaz had one 12-win season (his MVP/Triple Crown year in 1967, of course), one 10-win season (1968--The Year of the Pitcher) and a nine-win season (in 1970). Ortiz has had one season--2007--where he was worth more than six, and zero where he was worth over seven. Yastrzemski compiled nearly 100 WAR (B-R and FanGraphs) in his Hall of Fame career; Ortiz will be lucky if he gets to 50. Even if you gave Ortiz as many plate appearances as Yastrzemski, there would still be no question as to which one was more valuable.

For one at-bat, I'd take Ortiz. But for an entire game, season, career, what have you, it's gotta be Yastrzemski.

Boston Blasts Blue Jays

Papi paced Boston's big win with a pair of two-run homers (Boston Globe)

For the first time this summer, it feels good to be a Red Sox fan. Not only have they won eight of their past nine to climb out of last place (however temporarily), but they’ve outscored their opponents 22-2 over their last three games. The pitching’s been untouchable and the offense, sparked by rookie call-ups such as Christian Vazquez and Mookie Betts, has finally come around. After a listless half of baseball, the Red Sox seem to be kicking it into high gear with the threat of a possible trade deadline roster shakeup hanging over their heads.

After sweeping Kansas City at home over the weekend, the defending champs kicked off their ten-game road trip in Toronto with a smashing 14-1 victory. A season’s worth of frustrations came pouring out at the Rogers Centre last night as the Red Sox steamrolled the Blue Jays in what was easily the former's most convincing win of the season. 

The floodgates opened after a scoreless first inning with Boston grabbing a quick 2-0 lead in the second behind run-scoring singles from Stephen Drew and Vazquez. In the third they strung together five two-out hits, the last an RBI double by Jackie Bradley, Jr. that chased Toronto starter Drew Hutchison from the game. The Blue Jays got one back in the bottom half of the frame with consecutive doubles from Erik Kratz and Juan Francisco, but John Lackey settled down to induce three straight groundouts, the last two of which were hit right back to him for easy outs.

The Red Sox continued their onslaught in the fourth against Brad Mills, who was brought in to put out the fire but instead proceeded to toss gasoline all over it. With Brock Holt on second via a leadoff double, David Ortiz took Mills deep for the 452nd home run of his career, tying another legendary Red Sox hitter by the name of Carl Yastrzemski (you may have heard of him) on the all-time list.

Big Papi, who has more home runs at the Rogers Centre than any active player besides Alex Rodriguez, would pass Yaz his next time up, drilling another two-run shot off Mills (again with Holt on base) the very next inning. By that point Boston's lead had swelled to 13-1, and they still weren't done. Mike Napoli followed up Ortiz's blast with one of his own, forcing John Gibbons to mercifully remove Mills from the game. Mills' stat line: seven hits (including three homers) and eight earned runs in two ugly innings. Poor Mills couldn’t catch a break; the Red Sox feasted on his fastball, pounding his every mistake like it was batting practice.

Boston battered Toronto pitching for a season-high 14 runs and 18 hits, four of which cleared the fences and four more landed for doubles. Napoli, Daniel Nava and Xander Bogaerts all went 3-for-5 while Holt, Ortiz, Bradley, and Stephen Drew recorded two hits apiece (Vazquez had the other and Dustin Pedroia/Jonny Gomes combined to go 0-for-5 out of the two-hole). Yes, even the slumping Stephen Drew got in on the action, slugging his third home run of the season and first since the Fourth of July.

Oh, and did I mention that John Lackey was wonderful? Pitchers are always forgotten in slugfests such as these, but Lackey was truly terrific in his first start of the second half. Goofy run support aside, Lackey earned his 11th win of the season by going seven innings, allowing only one run and two Blue Jays to reach base (the back-to-back doubles by Kratz and Francisco). With no walks and only 76 pitches through six, he likely would have gone the distance had the score not been so lopsided.

Boston will look to make it nine out of ten tonight with Jake Peavy, who could desperately use a win, on the mound. The Blue Jays, 13-25 since June 7th, will try to stop their skid with J.A. Happ on the hill. Happ, a lefty with an ERA just under five, has to be an inviting target for the Sox, who've hit considerably better against southpaws with a .714 OPS against them compared to .698 versus righties.