Making Sense of Colorado's Crazy Trade

Dickerson has far more value to a team than McGee (Fox Sports)

It's been two weeks, and I'm still trying to make sense of the Corey Dickerson for Jake McGee exchange. Given how smart front offices have become, it still blows my mind when they make obviously one-sided trades like this one, or last winter's Doug Fister and Jason Heyward trades.

Only on the most basic level does this trade make any sense for Colorado. The Rockies have an abundance of hitting and need pitching. They had a crowded outfield and a terrible bullpen (terrible doesn't even begin to describe how bad it was). So they traded an outfielder for a pretty good reliever. Okay, makes sense.

Except that it doesn't at all. At least for the Rockies.

For the Rays, a team perpetually short on offense, this trade makes all the sense in the world. Tampa Bay ranked second-to-last in the AL in runs scored last year, largely because its outfielders combined for just 56 home runs, 175 RBI, and a .258/.327/.420 batting line. With a collective OPS+ of 100, Rays outfielders provided league average production at best.

Dickerson, however, has been well above average the last two years, posting a 141 OPS+ in 2014 followed by a 118 OPS+ last year. After leaving Coors Field (the best hitter's park in baseball) for Tropicana Field (one of the worst), he's not going to come close to matching his .309/.354/.556 line from 2014-2015, but he's still a solidly above average corner outfielder who's not even 27 yet. Tampa Bay would have been better off going after someone from a less extreme environment, but Dickerson still represents a clear upgrade in an outfield that saw way too much of David DeJesus and Steven Souza last year.

And it's not like the Rays gave up much to get him, either. Relievers are cheap and plentiful, which makes them expendable. Any failed starter can find second life as a reliever. Hard-hitting, in-their-prime outfielders are a rarity, however, especially these days. McGee is good, but he's going to be 30 in August and was hurt last year. His value may never be higher than it is right now.

Which is why the Rays were smart to move him. The timing made sense. For the Rockies, however, this was probably the worst time for them to trade Dickerson. He's not even arbitration-eligible yet and is still under team control for four more years, plus he's coming off an injury-riddled season in which he missed almost 100 games and was worth only 0.5 bWAR. Had they waited for him to rebuild his value a bit, they could have gotten more for him, like a starting pitcher (Colorado could really use one of those).

While dumb, this trade at least would have been more defensible had the Rockies been good, as sometimes it's necessary to sacrifice something valuable to address one of your weaknesses. But Colorado's entire pitching staff is a weakness, and 60 innings from Mr. McGee won't change that. Bad teams don't need ace relievers, because by the time they get in the game the score's already been decided. They need good, young starting pitchers and position players they can build around. The bullpen is often the last piece of the puzzle, and one that can be cobbled together on the cheap (never pay for saves).

McGee's going to be a free agent in two years, and nobody seriously expects Colorado to contend by then. They've endured five straight losing seasons and there's no light at the end of the tunnel, not until they're able to build what passes for a major league-caliber starting rotation. Dickerson could have helped them do that, but now he's gone.

Giambi Goes Out With Whimper

Yep, that guy played major league baseball last year (Rant Sports)

Jason Giambi finally announced his retirement today at the age of 44.

I say finally because it seemed like Giambi retired years ago. He became a part-time player after leaving the Yankees via free agency in 2009 and, save for a brief resurgence with Colorado in 2011, was never again the impact hitter that he was during his days in Oakland and New York. Giambi played so sparingly over the past five seasons that it was just easy to forget about him unless you were a die-hard Rockies or Indians fan. Every now and then I'd see his name in the box score and think What? That guy's still playing?

Giambi hung around long past his expiration date, but he was hardly the first to do so. I'm just surprised a bat-first/only guy on the wrong side of 40 who couldn't hit, run, or field kept finding work.

And while those final years didn't add much to his counting stats, they did help him achieve several milestones. Giambi notched his 2,000th career hit on September 8th, 2013 against the New York mets. Leading off the bottom of the ninth, Giambi represented the tying run and was promptly removed for a pinch-runner. He cracked his 400th double the same year. There were also moments like these.

That's how the last act of Giambi's career played out; a lot of pinch-hitting and DH-ing and even more time spent on the bench. But during his heyday during the late 1990s and early 2000s, at the height of the steroid era, Giambi was an absolute terror. He had a beastly four-year peak from 1999-2002 when he batted .326/.452/.612 (177 OPS+) with a .448 wOBA. He was in the top-eight of the MVP voting every year, winning outright in 2000 and finishing runner-up to Ichiro Suzuki the following year. There were only two position players more valuable than Giambi during this time (according to fWAR): Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez.

Like Frank Thomas, another burly slugging first base/DH type, Giambi remained effective throughout his 30s but slipped as his body began to break down (probably a result of his admitted steroid use). Perhaps seduced by Yankee Stadium's short right field porch, he became more of a three-true outcomes kind of guy, especially once teams began employing defensive shifts against him. His BABiP, which had been above .310 every year from 1996-2002, fell below .295 in every one of his last dozen seasons, during which time Giambi batted a mere .238. Pretty shocking considering he nearly beat out Ichiro for the batting title in 2001.*.

*The same thing has more or less happened with Mark Teixeira, a first baseman who, like Giambi, signed a big long-term deal with New York, only to follow up a monster first season with several very good years before injuries, shifts, and a pull-happy approach wrecked him. 

Giambi's time in New York overlapped with the seven years where they failed to win the World Series. He signed on with them six weeks after Mariano Rivera's Game 7 meltdown in Arizona, only to depart the winter before New York hoisted its 27th championship banner. Giambi played 20 years, all in the wild card era, without ever winning a title, albeit through no fault of his own. He hit well in the postseason, flashing a .290/.425/.486 line with seven homers and 19 RBI in 45 games.

Interestingly, Giambi retires as the active leader in walks and hit by pitches. Few players had a better batting eye than the five-time All-Star, who led the league in free passes four times and posted a 15.3 BB% for his career. He also knew how to take one for the team, which he did 180 times throughout his career. In fact, only 10 players have ever been hit by more pitches.

Giambi, of course, was also a phenomenal power hitter and run producer. He topped 40 homers three times, 30 eight times, and 20 11 times. He went yard 440 times in all, good for 41st on the all-time list. He also came close to knocking in 1,500 runs, settling at 1,441 with seven seasons over the century mark (and another at 96). That's why Steinbrenner and Cashman paid him the big bucks.

Giambi's star may have faded away, but he had a damn good career, on par with David Ortiz, Carlos Delgado, and Jim Rice in terms of overall value. Had he been able to remain productive throughout his late 30s like Ortiz or if his peak had extended a few more years in either direction, we'd be talking about a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate. Instead, Giambi must settle for the Hall of Very Good, but that's still a pretty great place to be.

Mets Misfire on Cuddyer

Cuddyer's had a fine career, but it's about to go south (CBS New York)

The New York Mets made an early offseason move Monday, inking outfielder Michael Cuddyer to a two-year, $21 million contract. The deal, which pays Cuddyer $8.5 million next year and $12.5 million in 2016, is pretty reasonable. There's not many impact bats out there that can be acquired so cheaply, and Cuddyer's been a solidly above average hitter since his 2006 breakout. In addition to winning the National League batting title in 2013, he's made two All-Star teams, enjoyed four 20-homer seasons, and exceeded a .750 OPS in 11 of the past 12 seasons.

That said, I don't think this deal will work out for the Mets, who sacrificed a mid-first round 2015 draft pick (in addition to the $21 million) because Colorado offered Cuddyer a $15.3 million qualifying offer, which he was planning to accept before the Mets came calling. I'm fine with the length and dollar figure (three years or anything over $25 million would have been too much), but losing the draft pick on top of that means this acquisition probably won't be worth it in the long run.

Now, in order for New York to get a good return on the contract, Cuddyer will have to be worth at least three wins over the next two seasons, as the going rate for a win on the open market is about $7 million. Seeing as how he was worth exactly three wins the last two years, that seems reasonable. However, Cuddyer is going to be 36 next year, which means he's a good bet to decline. He's also experienced his share of injury woes lately, failing to reach 140 games played in any of the past four seasons and suiting up for just 49 last year because of three separate trips to the Disabled List. It's hard to help your team win when you can't take the field.

And while Cuddyer's track record is impressive, he's benefited from favorable home parks for all but two of his 14 seasons, which expains why his home OPS (.875) is 122 points higher than his road OPS (.753). In the Twins' first season at Target Field (2010), a notorious pitcher's park, his OPS dropped 109 points from the previous year and his home run total plunged from 32 to 14. It goes without saying that the shift from Coors Field--the best hitter's park in the majors--to Citi Field--one of the worst--is going to dampen his production. No way his OPS exceeds .900 again, as it has the last two years, and New York will be lucky if he can even break .800.

So given Cuddyer's age, injury history, and imminent regression, it seems unlikely he'll produce the three wins needed to earn his paycheck. That doesn't even account for the unknown cost of the forfeited draft pick, who might be a star someday or could have been used as trade bait. I commend the Mets for going after and obtaining an inexpensive quality hitter because a) those are becoming so rare these days and b) they need bats after ranking in the bottom five of the NL last year in hits, batting average, slugging, OPS, and total bases, but I just don't think Cuddyer's going to be the hitter they expect him to be.

If I'm Saldy Anderson, general manger of the New York Mets, I don't make this deal because it entails considerable downside without a speck of upside. Cuddyer can't replicate his production from the last two years outside Colorado, much less improve on it. He can only get worse, and he's not getting any younger. New York's betting that Cuddyer has two more solid (and healthy) seasons left in him. Even if he's healthy, I think the move to Citi Field hurts him enough that he won't put up the numbers to justify his contract.

Morneau Making Comeback

Morneau has returned to form with the Rockies after several disappointing seasons

What do you know? Another Rockies post! (I'm a Red Sox fan, I swear). It's just that Colorado has so many compelling narratives right now. How do you not write about Nolan Arenado's hit streak, or Troy Tulowitzki's terrific start, or Charlie Blackmon's out-of-nowhere first month?

The narrative nobody seems to be talking about, however, is that of Justin Morneau, former American League MVP back from the dead after three disappointing seasons.

Maybe that's because it's been a great year for comebacks. Albert Pujols has returned to form, and so has Mark Teixeira. Derek Jeter's back for one final go-round after missing almost all of last year, and Grady Sizemore's a contributor again after missing all of the past two seasons.

Overshadowed by these more compelling narratives as well as the players on his own team, Morneau has slipped under the radar even though, after going 2-for-5 last night, he's hitting .336/.356/.600 on the year with ten doubles, seven home runs and 26 RBI. Buoyed by good health and a slight boost from Coors Field (he still has a .920 OPS on the road), he's hitting like the Morneau of old.

You do remember the Morneau of old, don't you? The one who (somehow) snuck away with the 2006 AL MVP award, was runner-up to Dustin Pedroia in 2008 and made four straight All-Star teams? The RBI machine who knocked in at least 100 runs every year from 2006 through 2009, averaging 30 home runs and 118 ribbies per year? The two-time Silver Slugger who teamed up with Joe Mauer to form a potent 1-2 punch in the heart of Minnesota's order, back when the Twins ruled the AL Central? Seems like ages ago, doesn't it?

He was on his way to another monster season in 2010 with a 1.055 OPS through the season's first 81 games. Then he suffered a concussion sliding into second base and his career went into a downward sprial. He missed the rest of the season and the playoffs, and 2011 was basically a lost season for him, too; he played only 60 games and posted a career-worst .618 OPS. He bounced back in 2012, hitting .267/.333/.440 (112 OPS+) with 19 home runs and 77 RBI in 134 games, but not to his previous levels.

He put up similarly mediocre numbers last year, and with his contract expiring at the end of the season Minnesota declined to pick up his option and dumped him on the Pirates late in the season. The lifelong Twin failed to make much of an impression in Pittsburgh, with only five extra base hits and three RBI in 117 plate appearances (including postseason). Not surprisingly, the Pirates opted not to bring him back.

Colorado, in need of a first baseman following Todd Helton's retirement, took a chance on the 32 year-old, giving him a two-year, $14 million deal to hold down first base, join former teammate Michael Cuddyer and hopefully revive his career with a little (or a lot) of help from Coors Field.

Sure enough, he has. Morneau looks like a new man and is playing his best baseball in half a decade. Who knows if it will last or for how long, but for the time being it appears Morneau has halted his decline and re-captured the offensive skills that made him one of the best hitters in the game not too long ago.

Tulowitzki Terrorizing NL Pitching

Tulo has Colorado off to a rip-roaring start (KFFL)

I think people are finally catching on to just how good Troy Tulowitzki can be.

The Rockies are off to an amazing start--one game out of first in the NL West--and their star shortstop's big first month is a big reason why. After last night's 3-for-4 performance, Tulo's hitting an outrageous .421/.522/.794, easily the best batting line in baseball at the moment. He also has 11 doubles and nine home runs, leads the sport in total bases and has scored more runs than anyone in baseball. And April's National League Player of the Month is getting hotter, with seven multi-hit performances over his late eight games.

Barely a month into the season, he's already provided Colorado with close to four wins above replacement level. Tulowitzki's a great player--a three-time All-Star, two-time Gold Glove recipient and twice a top-five finisher in the MVP race--but he's never been this hot before (not even in September 2010, when he hit 14 home runs in a 15 game stretch and was named NL Player of the Month).

Now in his ninth season, Tulo has long been one of the more underrated talents in baseball. I have a lot of theories why for why that is:

• He plays in Colorado, which is not on a coast and doesn't have a ton of people and lacks a proud baseball tradition. The Rockies are an expansion era team that's barely been around for 20 years and has never won a World Series game. They don't have the rich tradition or wide fan base that the Red Sox, Yankees, Cardinals, and Cubs do.
• Colorado simply hasn't been very good: before this year he had been on five losing teams in eight years, and one of the winning seasons produced only 83 victories. Tulo hasn't gotten much postseason exposure, playing in just 15 total playoff games. Last year the Red Sox played 16 postseason games. Tulo isn't a household name because he's not an October fixture like David Ortiz or Derek Jeter.
• He plays half his game in Coors Field, a hitter's paradise, and so he gets dinged for that like every other Rockie who puts up big numbers. He's hit exceptionally well there over the course of his career and this year in particular, batting an absurd .608/.677/.1.098 in 15 home games so far.
• Tulo isn't very flashy. Before this year he had never lead the league in any meaningful offenive cateogry. Offensively he's a .300-25-90 guy, which is obviously very good but won't win any batting titles or home run crowns. He plays good defense but doesn't dazzle the way Ozzie Smith did or Andrelton Simmons does. He's graceful and does everything well, a style that doesn't net much attention for whatever reason (see Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones, Craig Biggio, etc.)

Still, it's kind of surprising that Tulo hasn't become one of the faces of baseball. I mean, a Gold Glove shortstop who's a career .298 hitter and averages 29 home runs and 104 RBI per 162 games ought to be a superstar, right?

Problem is, Tulowitzki has never played 162 games in a season. He's topped 150 twice, but both times were in the previous decade. From 2010 to 2013, he averaged just 110 games per season. His injury history on his Baseball Prospectus player page is scary long. He's been hurt pretty much everywhere at some point. I couldn't help but think of that old picture of Mickey Mantle with the arrows pointing to all his injuries.

I'm sure you could do something similar with Tulo, who's developed a reputation as one of those supremely talented guys who just cant stay on the field, similar to Larry Walker, Josh Hamilton, Barry Larkin and Jose Reyes. He missed 61 games in 2008, 40 in 2010, 19 the year after that, 115 in 2012, and 36 last year. That's the equivalent of about two full seasons, just in the past six years. And yet he's still managed five seasons with at least five bWAR, including four with more than six. When he's healthy, he's one of the best players in the game.

This year, health hasn't been an issue for the 29 year-old. He's played in 32 of Colorado's 35 games and been otherworldly, the driving force behind the National League's best offense. Plenty of Rockies are hitting well at the moment--Nolan Arenado and Justin Morneau and Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez and Michael Cuddyer before he got hurt--but none of them can hold a candle to Tulo, who's reminding everyone that he's not just the best shortstop in baseball, but one of its best players period.

Analyzing Arenado's Amazing Start

Arenado's sophomore season is off to a sizzling start (HoundSports)

Before I talk about Nolan Arenado's 2014 season, I want to talk about his 2013 season.

You see, Arenado was a pretty valuable baseball player last year, worth nearly four wins above replacement per Baseball-Reference. That's almost All-Star level. And yet he finished a distant seventh in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, tied with Evan Gattis, even though bWAR says he was more valuable than everyone that finished ahead of him except for Jose Fernandez (the winner) and Yasiel Puig (the runner-up). Arenado was also more valuable than every American League rookie who received votes (Wil Myers, Jose Iglesias, Chris Archer, etc.), none of whom exceeded 2.5 bWAR.

FanGraphs wasn't quite as generous, crediting Arenado with 2.7 fWAR, but that was still enough to make him the sixth most valuable rookie in baseball and fourth most valuable non-pitcher rookie, behind Puig, A.J. Pollock and Juan Lagares.

Point is, Nolan Arenado was good last year. What's interesting is how he was good. You'd expect a Rockies third baseman like him to post some pretty gaudy offensive numbers, similar to the ones Garrett Atkins or perhaps even Vinny Castilla used to put up. 

He didn't. The 22 year-old did not hit for much power, with only 10 home runs, 52 RBI, a .405 slugging percentage and a ..138 ISo. He didn't hit for a high average or get on base very often. He was not a factor on the basepaths, stealing only two bases.

All of his value came from his defense, for which he won the Gold Glove, becoming the first rookie third baseman to win the Gold Glove since Frank Malzone in 1957, the award's first year (when only one was given out for both leagues). Arenado was a regular Brooks Robinson at the hot corner, saving 30 more runs with his glove than the average third baseman according to B-R (FanGraphs said 22.6). Among National League third basemen he was first in range factor, second in double plays, assists, and putouts, fourth in fielding percentage and fifth in total zone runs. His defense, by itself, was worth between two and three wins, more than enough to compensate for his mediocre offense.

And boy, was his offense mediocre. He hit .267/.301/.405, which doesn't look terrible for a rookie, especially in today's suppressed offensive climate. But for someone who plays half his games in Coors Field, those numbers weren't very good. The league-average non-pitcher would have been expected to hit .276/.344/.429 and post an OPS 67 points higher than Arenado's. Thus, even though his raw OPS of .706 was a touch better than the league average of .703, he wound up with an Adjusted OPS+ of 82, which is quite poor (18 percent below average). FanGraphs had him at 21 percent below average. He also struck more than three times for every walk and bounced into 16 double plays, a considerable number.

So Arenado had the defense thing down. Hitting, however was another story.

This year, it hasn't been. In addition to providing his elite defense, Arenado's providing great offense to go with it. Following an offseason dedicated to improving his hitting, he's enjoying a phenomenal start to his sophomore season. Last night he extended his league-best hitting streak to 25 with a two-run homer off fellow sophomore Martin Perez, two shy of Michael Cuddyer's franchise record and almost halfway to Joe DiMaggio's magical 56. He's batting .313/,336/.515, and his 42 hits rank second in the league to Paul Goldschmidt. With six home runs, nine doubles, 22 RBI and a .201 ISo. thus far, his power is much improved, too.

My first instinct was to check Arenado's BABiP, but at .316 it's nothing out of the ordinary. He's actually hitting fewer line drives and ground balls at the expense of more fly balls and pop-ups (which would suggest that he's swinging for the fences more, but his swinging strike rate and strikeout rates have gone down). His average should be in the pooper, but right now he's finding enough holes. That seems to be the only explanation, as there's nothing in his plate discipline/approach to account for this change. He's whiffing less often and making a little more contact, but all of his contact gains are coming on pitches outside the zone, which should be harder to square up and result in weaker contact. 

Arenado's not going to keep hitting this well all season, but he's at an age (23) where improvement is expected, especially in the power department. He's probably getting a little lucky right now, but he's also probably just a better hitter. How much better is the true question, and right now it's too early to tell. I see him hitting .280/.320/.430 the rest of the way and finishing the season with close to 20 homers and 40 doubles. Those are good numbers anywhere, and I'm sure the second-place Rockies would happily take them going forward.

At the very least, Arenado has proven he's no longer a liability with the bat. Even he regresses to being just a league average hitter (or even a tick below), that still qualifies as a major improvement.

Colorado crushing its way to top of standings

Tulowitzki's hot bat has helped carry Colorado  

Following last night's 8-5 victory over the scuffling Arizona Diamondbacks, the red-hot Rockies are 15-12, only half a game out of first place in the NL West. Fueled by early season hot streaks from Charlie Blackmon, Troy Tulowitzki, and Justin Morneau, Colorado leads the National League in virtually every meaningful batting statistic and is batting .295/.347/.478 collectively. Impressively, the Rockies have managed these outstanding figures despite playing more road games than home games.*

*Their home/road splits are still ridiculous, though. At Coors they're batting .346/.398/.586, which means everyone on the team is essentially hitting like Joe DiMaggio. Away from Coors, they're batting .253/.304/.388. That's an OPS difference of nearly 300 points.

It's nice to see Colorado, who hasn't enjoyed a winning season since 2010, jump out to a fast start, but right now that's all it is: a good start.

Remember last year, they went 13-4 to open the season, winning eight in a row at one point. They led the division as late as Memorial Day weekend and were in second place through the first week in July (despite having a sub-.500 record). They faded down the stretch and wound up at 74-88, last place in the NL West (despite pacing the Senior Circuit in hits, batting average, slugging percentage, total bases, and OPS).

They say it's not how you start, but how you finish. The Rockies certainly proved that last year.

Fundamentally, not much has changed. The offense is still dynamite, and the pitching is still horrendous. That formula might work for short stretches when their hitters get into a groove, but over the course of a full season it's not a winning recipe. Colorado can hit all it wants, but until the organization develops some quality pitching the playoffs are never going to be a real possibility.

Which is too bad, really, because they sure can hit.

Roy Oswalt Retires

Oswalt was one of the National League's top pitchers for a decade (LATimes)

The 2019 Hall of Fame ballot is going to be crowded with Texas icons. In just the last two weeks Lance Berkman, Michael Young, Roy Oswalt hung up their spikes. All three played for the Rangers at some point, but Oswalt and Berkman spent the bulk of their careers with the Astros.

In fact, their careers followed almost identical trajectories and overlapped very well. They were both exceptional during their time together in Houston, which ended two days apart in 2010. Oswalt was traded to Philadelphia on July 29th, and two days later Berkman was sent packing to the Yankees as the Astros began their teardown (the following summer, Hunter Pence would join Oswalt in Philly and Michael Bourn was dealt to the Braves). Oswalt and Berkman were both great for about a decade, then crapped out in their early 30s and finished their careers with around 50 bWAR.

Oswalt's career was relatively short, lasting just 13 seasons. But during those 13 seasons, he was the third most valuable pitcher in baseball behind only Roy Halladay (a one-time teammate of Oswalt's who also happened to be his most similar pitcher at ages 31, 32, and 33) and CC Sabathia, both of whom are likely Hall of Famers.

Oswalt probably won't be, because his career was too short to make up for never winning a Cy Young award or having a killer peak like Sandy Koufax or Pedro Martinez. But Oswalt was very good, better than most people realize. He was good enough to finish in the top six of the Cy Young voting six times from 2001-2010, when he was also durable enough to exceed 200 innings seven times and average 202 per season.

He didn't dominate hitters with overpowering velocity the way Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw do today, but instead had great command of his four pitches, consistently finishing among the league's top ten in BB/9 rate and K/BB ratio. That control helped him win an ERA title in 2006 and have a career ERA that was 27 percent better than average.

The three-time All-Star drew MVP votes on four separate occasions. He also won 20 games twice and more than 61 percent of his decisions (for people who care about such things). Oswalt was good enough long enough to be worth 50 wins above replacement level in his career. He was one of the 100 best starting pitchers of all time according to JAWs and bWAR (the latter of which rated him as the league's most valuable pitcher in 2007).

He was also, according to Bill James, the best Big Game pitcher of all-time. Better than Bob Gibson, Whitey Ford, and yes, Jack Morris. That sounds like a ridiculous claim to make of a man who get shelled in his only World Series start, but it's true. His teams went 46-12 in the most important games he ever pitched, which is truly astounding.

His shining moment was the 2005 postseason, when he was instrumental in helping Houston reach their first (and only) World Series. In the Divisional Series against Atlanta, with the series tied at one game apiece, Oswalt pitched into the eighth inning of Game 3 and got the win, which helped the 'Stros advance to the NLCS where they were pitted against the defending NL champs.

 In Game 2 versus St. Louis, with Houston needing a win after dropping Game 1, Oswalt shut down the Cardinals with seven innings of one-run ball. Back in St. Louis for Game 6 with the Astros looking to clinch their first pennant in franchise history, Oswalt was once again sublime, holding the Cards to one run on three hits through seven spectacular innings. Houston cruised to victory, and Oswalt was named NLCS MVP.

Unfortunately for him and the Astros, disaster struck in the World Series. The Chicago White Sox won their first World Series since 1917 by sweeping the Astros, just as the Red Sox had done to the Cardinals while ending their own World Series drought the previous fall. You could say the turning point of that series was Game 3 in Houston. With Oswalt on the bump, Houston took a 4-0 lead into the fifth inning and looked like they might just climb back into the series if they could finish off the win. There was still hope.

But in the top of the fifth, Oswalt unraveled. He imploded, allowing Chicago to send 11 men to the plate and score five runs. Houston eventually lost the game in 14 innings, a game they could and should have won. After that their title hopes vanished, and they were shutout in Game 4 as the White Sox popped champagne on their turf.

The Astros haven't been back to the playoffs since. Oswalt would make just four postseason starts after that and never pitch in the Fall Classic again.

                                                                   *****

Oswalt was one of those rare players who's great from the start and avoids the growing pains/adjustment periods that plague most young stars. He went 14-3 as a 23 year-old rookie in 2001, which gave him the league's best winning percentage. He also posted a 2.73 ERA that was 70 percent better than average when adjusted for league and park, and struck out six batters for every one he walked. Despite making only 20 starts, Oswalt should and would have been a slam dunk for Rookie of the Year most years. But 2001 was an exceptional freshman class, with Ichiro Suzuki taking home the AL award and MVP honors, something only Fred Lynn had ever done, while in the National League Albert Pujols had numbers that were Joe DiMaggio-esque. Pujols won the award unanimously, Oswalt finished a distant second.

But that perfectly embodies how poor Oswalt's timing was. His phenomenal early seasons were overshadowed by Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens. Then it was Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum. At times he was even obscured by his own teammates: Rocket and Andy Pettitte, Berkman and Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio. He got stuck in the "very good" class of pitchers that Dan Haren and Jon Lester have been living in for awhile. It's too bad he didn't get traded to the Phillies sooner--he joined the defending NL champs just as their core was beginning to show its age.

He did to get to be a part of one of the best rotations ever assembled, even if only for a season. He, Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels led the Phillies to 102 wins in 2011, a year which also marked the beginning of Oswalt's decline. Before the season, Oswalt looked like he might make the Hall of Fame one day. He had finished 2010 strong with the Phillies, leading the league in WHIP and coming in sixth in the Cy Young voting. Going into his age 33 season, it still seemed like he had plenty of gas left in the tank.. He needed a few more good seasons to pump up his counting numbers, probably needed to pitch into his late 30s at least, and if he got a World Series ring or two with the Phillies that would be icing on the cake.

None of that happened. Oswalt regressed to merely average in 2011, was terrible with Texas in 2012 and even worse with Colorado last year. The last two seasons were especially bad, as he got lit up for a 6.80 ERA in 26 appearances (15 starts). Like Berkman, Young, Halladay, Todd Helton, Oswalt did not go out on top. Few (Mariano Rivera, Ted Williams, Mike Mussina come to mind) do.

But those last few starts, ugly as they were, don't diminish what Oswalt was: a great pitcher for a full decade and one of his generation's finest. He may not be a Hall of Famer, but he's an easy choice for the Astros Hall of Fame and the (fictional) Hall of Very Good.

Helton is Hall-Worthy

Helton was one of baseball's best hitters and a deserving Hall of Famer

After 17 years, 2,247 games and 9,453 plate appearances--all with the Colorado Rockies--Todd Helton is calling it a career.

Though his retirement was not met with the same fanfare as Mariano Rivera or Chipper Jones, like them Helton was able to leave the game on his own terms. Felled by a forearm strain early in the year, he was able to return and remained healthy the rest of the way, getting into 124 games and bouncing back from a dismal and injury-shortened 2012. He notched his 2,500th hit on September 1st with a double off Curtis Partch. Helton hit a lot of doubles in his career: 592 of them--the most of any active player and 16th most all-time.

Partch, a rookie, was just ten years old when Helton made his big league debut on August 2nd, 1997 at the age of 23. Helton homered that day and the next, the first of many power barrages that would result in 369 trips around the bases throughout his career. The following year he inherited Andres Galarraga's first base gig and finished second in a closely contested Rookie of the Year race to Kerry Wood. In 1999 Helton was even better, topping 30 homers and 100 RBI for the first time while batting a robust .320/.395/.587. He was just getting warmed up.

Before long Helton had emerged as one of the most dominant hitters in baseball. It's easy to forget now, but his prime was Ted Williams-esque. Over the five year stretch from 2000 through 2004, Helton batted .349/.450/.643, posting an OPS over 1.000 each year while averaging 50 doubles, 37 homers, 123 RBI and seven wins per season (He even won three Gold Gloves during that span, though defensive metrics disagree). Only Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez were more valuable per fWAR during that time. Helton's 2000 and 2001 seasons were two of the best any hitter has ever had, and there's no doubt in my mind that he (or Bonds) should have been named Most Valuable Player in 2000, when he won the NL Hank Aaron award. That was the year he threatened .400 for much of the season, ultimately settling for the sabermetric triple crown with his .372/.463/.698 line in addition to his 405 total bases and 8.9 bWAR. How Jeff Kent walked away with the hardware that year, when he wasn't even the most valuable player on his own team, remains a mystery.

The Rockies were quick to reward their star first baseman the following spring with a nine-year contract extension worth $141.5 million that kept him in Colorado through 2011. What they couldn't predict was that Helton, so remarkably consistent in the first half of his career, would decline so quickly in his early 30s and never again be the dominant offensive force he was during the early aughts. Helton failed to top 20 homers or slug north of .500 in a season after 2005 as age and injuries sapped his power. In 2007 he was instrumental in helping the Rockies reach their first and only World Series appearance in franchise history, only to disappear (three hits--all singles--in 16 at-bats) in the Fall Classic as Colorado was swept by the Boston Red Sox.

His career continued to go south from there. Unlike Teddy Ballgame, Helton wasn't able to remain an elite hitter throughout his 30s. He played past his 40th birthday but wasn't able to get much out of his last six seasons, missing an average of 50 games per year while hitting just .279/.373/.430, averaging only 11 home runs and 53 RBI per year. That lack of a strong finishing kick prevented him from reaching several notable milestones such as 600 doubles, 400 home runs and 1,500 RBI. In this regard Helton was a lot like Don Mattingly: both experienced incredible peaks, only to see their production curtailed by injuries throughout their 30s (Jeff Bagwell is a good comparison as well).

As such, I think most would agree that while his counting numbers are very good, they mirror those of other borderline candidates like Dwight Evans, Dave Parker and Dick Allen. They don't scream Hall of Fame. His rate stats (.316/.419/.539, 20th best OPS of all-time) do, but many will be quick to point out that they were enhanced by Colorado's thin air. Indeed, Helton batted .345/.441/.607 at home but was just a .287/.386/.469 hitter (nearly 200 OPS points worse) everywhere else. This doesn't bother me, though. Plenty of guys are in the Hall of Fame because they played the bulk of their careers in hitter's parks. It's hardly fair to penalize Helton but not Jim Rice, Mel Ott, Duke Snider, or the countless others who took advantage of their home parks' friendly conditions.

While it's true that Helton was nothing special outside of Coors Field, I think he has a much better case than most people realize. JAWS rates him as the 13th best first baseman of all-time, with his score almost matching that of the average Cooperstown inductee at the position. He rates just below Willie McCovey but higher than Eddie Murray, Harmon Killebrew, Hank Greenberg, Mark McGwire, and Orlando Cepeda, to name a few. He can't stack up with Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx and Frank Thomas, of course, but he still rates comfortably within the standards of the position. His peak was brilliant, and he had enough success in other years to round out his resume.

Based on the middling vote totals of former teammate Larry Walker, I get the sense that there probably won't be a lot of support for Helton's enshrinement either. Like Walker, they'll write him off as a byproduct of Coors Field. But Helton belongs in Cooperstown, and you don't have to squint that hard to see it.

Still don't believe me? Here are some more interesting factoids about the Toddfather that show just how special he was as a hitter:

-He is the only player to hit at least .315 with 25 homers and 95 RBI in each of his first full seven seasons (Albert Pujols missed joining him by one percentage point on his sophomore season batting average)
-He is the only player in National League history to have at least 200 hits, 40 home runs, 100 RBI, 100 runs, 100 extra base hits and 100 walks in one season (2000)
-He is the only player in baseball history with more than 100 extra base hits in back-to-back seasons (2000-'01)
-He is the only player in baseball history to hit more than 35 doubles in 10 consecutive seasons (1998-2007)
-He is one of only four men (Chuck Klein, Gehrig, and Foxx are the others) to accumulate over 400 total bases in consecutive seasons (2000-'01)
-Gehrig and Bill Terry are the only other first basemen to hit .315 or higher in eight straight years (1998-2005)

I rest my case.

NL West Preview

1st Place--Los Angeles Dodgers
2012 Record: 86-76
2012 Pythagorean: 86-76
2013 Projected: 93-69
Matt Kemp has an MVP-type season to lead an explosive Dodgers' lineup that gets nice bounceback years from Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez. Clayton Kershaw continues drawing comparisons to Sandy Koufax, and Zack Greinke has his best season since winning the Cy Young in 2009. Josh Beckett can't be any worse than he was last year. The roster lacks depth, which means LA is particularly vulnerable to injuries, but I like their chances of winning the division.

2nd Place--San Francisco Giants
2012 Record: 94-68
2012 Pythagorean: 88-74
2013 Projected: 91-71
Buster Posey and Angel Pagan regress, but Pablo Sandoval stays healthy. Full seasons from Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro help. Brandon Belt breaks out. Ryan Vogelsong's numbers take a hit, but Tim Lincecum's improve. The reigning World Series champs will be tough to beat, and it wouldn't surprise me if they beat out Los Angeles for the division crown again.

3rd Place--Arizona Diamondbacks
2012 Record: 81-81
2012 Pythagorean: 86-76
2013 Projected 85-77
It's already evident they made a massive mistake trading Justin Upton, but at least Martin Prado is a valuable player. Ian Kennedy improves on his disappointing 2012 to provide James Shields-esque production, and Paul Goldschmidt takes a big step forward. Aaron Hill proves last season's resurgence was for real. There's 90 win potential here if everything clicks.

4th Place--San Diego Padres
2012 Record: 76-86
2012 Pythagorean: 75-87
2013 Projected: 74-88
Chase Headley isn't going to be anything close to the MVP-caliber player he was in 2012. Cameron Maybin improves.

5th Place--Colorado Rockies
2012 Record: 64-98
2012 Pythagorean: 69-93
2013 Projected: 71-91
There's no pitching here, but the lineup sure can mash. Expect a big rebound year from Troy Tulowitzki and more good things from Dexter Fowler (the NL's Austin Jackson) and Carlos Gonzalez. Too bad Todd Helton's past his prime...