Thursday, July 5, 2012

Halfway Point Pitching Paces

In the wake of yesterday's games, every team in the majors has played at least 81 so far this year except for the Washington Nationals, who are lagging behind at 79.  As with the hitting paces I posted yesterday, I just doubled these players' current statistics.

AL East
BAL-Jim Johnson is on pace for 50 saves.  His previous career high was ten.  He's also one of those rare closers who has more saves than strikeouts.
BOS-Because of injuries to Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and John Lackey, Jon Lester is the only Sox starter on pace to surpass 200 innings pitched.
NYY-Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes are both on pace to win 18 games despite having ERA+ scores of 104 and 98, respectively.  This tandem is a perfect example of how pitching for the Yankees inflates your win totals.
TBR-David Price is on pace to win 22 games.  Rotation-mate "Big Game" James Shields is on pace to give up 250 hits, and has suffered some serious regression to his ugly 2010 form after being one of the best pitchers in baseball last year.
TOR-Henderson Alvarez is on pace to complete 204 innings, but strike out just 64 batters.  His K/9 rate is 2.8, which is a good walk rate for most pitchers.

AL Central
CLE-Derek Lowe, at the ripe old age of 39, is on pace to win 16 games and complete more than 200 innings.  The sinkerballer is also on pace to allow 260 hits.  Ubaldo Jimenez has been plagued by control problems; he's on pace to walk 114 batters and uncork 18 wild pitches.
CWS-Chris Sale, who's on pace for 8.6 bWAR, 20 wins, 205 innings, and 196 strikeouts has formed a lethal one-two punch at the top of the rotation with Jake Peavy.  Perhaps most impressively, Sale is on pace to allow just ten home runs despite pitching half his games at U.S. Cellular Field.
DET-Reigning AL MVP/Cy Young recipient Justin Verlander is at it again, on pace for 8.4 bWAR, 18 victories, ten complete games and more than 250 innings/strikeouts.  Not as flashy as last year, but still nearly just as good.
KCR-Jonathan Broxton, who looked all but finished as an effective reliever in his final season and a half with the Dodgers, is on pace for 40 saves.
MIN-Nobody is on pace for 200 innings.  As the game continue to become dominated by pitching. that deificiency spells trouble.

AL West
LAA-Normally reliable Dan Haren is on pace for 16 losses this year.  Not as bad as rotation-mate Ervin Santana, who's on pace to surrender 40 home runs and lose 18 games.
OAK-"Big Fat" Bartolo Colon is on pace to walk just 34 hitters
SEA-Hector Noesi is on pace to lose 22 games.
TEX-Matt Harrison, who's quietly developed into an upper-tier starter, is on pace for 7.4 bWAR, 22 wins and 210 innings.  Yu Darvish has lived up to the hype; the Japanese import is on pace for 20 wins and 234 strikeouts.

NL East
ATL-No sophomore slump for NL Rookie of the Year Craig Kimbrel, who's on pace for 46 saves (same number from last year) and 100 strikeouts.
MIA-The Marlins starting rotation of Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Carlos Zambrano, and Ricky Nolasco could all reach the 200 inning threshold.  Stay tuned.  And Heath Bell, who's having a terrible season, is still on pace for 36 saves.
NYM-Check out this projected stat line for R.A. Dickey: 24-2 record, 226 innings pitched, 232 strikeouts, and 7 bWAR.  The 37 year-old knuckleballer can't possibly keep this up.  Or can he?
PHI-Cliff Lee finally won his first game of the season yesterday but is on pace to go 2-10.
WSN-Move over, Stephen StrasburgGio Gonzalez is on pace for 22 wins, 224 strikeouts and just eight home runs allowed.

NL Central
CHC-Paul Maholm is on pace to drill 18 batters.  Same as Gavin Floyd, who pitches for the other (and much better) baseball team in the Windy City.
CIN-Closer Aroldis Chapman is on pace for a whopping 132 strikeouts, more than AL Rookie of the Year Jeremy Hellickson had in 189 innings last season.
HOU-Fernando Rodriguez, a relief pitcher, is on pace to lose 14 games.
MIL-Yovani Gallardo walked 94 hitters in 2009, but sliced his walk rate by a full batter per nine innings in both 2010 and 2011.  So far in 2012 he's reverted to his old wild self, and is on pace to walk 94 batters.
PIT-High Risk, High Reward.  The Pirates gambled on a pair of talented but volatile free agent starters in the offseason, and so far the results have been mixed.  Notoriously inconsistent A.J. Burnett is on pace to win 18 games, while the injury prone Erik Bedard is on pace to lose 18 games.
STL-Rookie of the Year candidate Lance Lynn is on pace to win 20 games and approach 200 innings/strikeouts, though he's struggled as of late and hitters may be adjusting to him.

NL West
ARI-Ian Kennedy has not been the same pitcher who finished fourth in the NL Cy Young balloting last season. He's on pace to go 12-14 with 240 hits and 102 earned runs allowed.
COL-Nobody is on pace for 150 strikeouts.  Don't blame Coors Field; the entire starting rotation belongs in Triple-A.
LAD-Chris Capuano, who won 18 games in 2005, made the All-Star team in '06 and wasn't good enough to hold his spot on Milwaukee's major league roster in both 2008 and 2009, is on pace to win 18 games and finish with around 200 innings/strikeouts.
SFG-Madison Bumgarner is on pace to win 20 games, but his excellence (as well as Matt Cain's and Ryan Vogelsong's) has been overshadowed by Tim Lincecum's struggles.  The Freak is on pace to go 6-18 with 126 earned runs allowed and nearly 100 walks.  Not all hope is lost, as he's been better lately and is still on pace for over 200 strikeouts.
SDP-Edinson Volquez, who the Reds traded Josh Hamilton for back in 2007, is on pace to walk 120 batters.  PETCO can hide a lot of your mistakes, but the one thing it can't fix is spotty command.

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