Slow Starts I'm Not Worried About (AL)

Victor Martinez (.215/.272/.306)
The Bad: V-Mart has looked very rusty after missing all of 2012 with a torn ACL. Martinez didn't hit his first home run of the season until May 4th. Despite batting fifth in Detroit's lineup behind Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, he has just 18 RBI on the season. He's striking out more than ever before and has worked only two walks since April 20th. At 34, he's reached an age where most players begin to suffer marked deterioration in their performance.

Why he'll turn it around: That .234 BABiP is bound to come up, as will his 3.5 HR/FB%. His stellar track record suggests he's going to figure things out sooner or later, and when he does he's going to knock in truckloads of runs batting behind Cabrera and Fielder.

Josh Willingham (.205/.378/.411)
The Bad: After a solid opening month, Willingham has seen his power stroke disappear in May. In his past 14 games he has no home runs and just seven hits. He's seeing fewer strikes than last year, so pitchers may be trying to avoid him more.

Why he'll turn it around: High strikeout, feast-or-famine hitters like Willingham tend to be streaky. Let's just chalk his recent slide up to a standard slump and assume the next power binge is right around the corner, especially as the weather starts warming up.

Yoenis Cespedes (.204/.270/.435)
The Bad: Cespedes already spent time on the DL with a thumb injury, which may still be affecting his swing. He has just one multi-hit game in May and hasn't drawn a walk since May 3rd. He fanned 30 times in a 22 game span from April 2nd through May 10th. He stole 16 bases last year, when he finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting behind Mike Trout, but has yet to swipe one this year.

Why he'll turn it around: His .203 BABiP is due for some serious correction, especially when his line drive percentage (8.6) starts to climb.

Albert Pujols (.248/.328/.418)
The Bad: Playing on a surgically repaired knee and through plantar fasciitis seems to be taking its toll on the 33 year-old first baseman. His strikeout rate is the highest it's been since his rookie season. He's leading the league in double plays grounded into and is once again a main culprit for LA's sluggish start (though Josh Hamilton is more to blame).

Why he'll turn it around: Pujols was even worse last spring, when he batted just .192/.228/.277 through May 11th. From that point forward he batted .310/.373/.581. He's one of the best hitters of all time, and he's worthy of your patience. His .246 BABiP will rise, as will his 12.0 HR/FB%.

Adam Dunn (.156/.255/.391)
The Bad: There's a lot of bad. Dunn went 34 straight plate appearances without a base hit from April 12th to April 20th. He had just two multi-hit games in April and three overall. His walk rate is way down. His numbers don't look much better than they did in 2011, when he had one of the worst seasons a hitter has ever had. The last place White Sox need more from him.

Why he'll turn it around: After slamming three home runs in his past two games, Dunn may already be emerging from the depths of his early season slump. Given that he's totaled at least 38 dingers in eight of the past nine years, the home runs are going to start coming in bunches. His .155 BABiP has nowhere to go but up.

Slow Starts I'm Not Worried About (NL)

It's hard to believe, but we're nearly a quarter of the way through the baseball season. Here are five players who have been major disappointments to their teams, fans, and fantasy owners so far but are bound to get back on track:

Miguel Montero (.192/.291/.280)
The Bad: The Arizona Diamondbacks are in second place in the National League West in spite of their All-Star catcher, who has gotten off to a painfully slow start. The 29 year-old catcher has been unable to find his power stroke with just five extra base hits to date. What's more, he went a full month between his first and second home runs (April 2nd-to-May 3rd). It's not like he's producing in other ways, either, as he's recorded just one multi-RBI game and four-multi-hit efforts to date.

Why he'll turn it around: Montero hasn't lost his batting eye. He posted a career high 12.7 BB% last year and has sustained that improved patience this year. He hasn't responded to his slump by expanding his strike zone and is letting the ball come to him. His .216 BABiP has nowhere to go but up.

Jay Bruce (.258/.306/.403)
The Bad: In addition to piling up strikeouts with frightening regularity (he leads the National League with 52, tied with Dan Uggla), Bruce has seen his walk rate plummet to 6.5 percent. However, the main concern about Bruce is his lack of power. With just three home runs through his first 38 games, he looks nothing like the slugger who averaged 33 dingers per 162 games in his first five seasons.

Why he'll turn it around: Bruce is a streaky hitter, prone to blistering hot streaks and wicked cold ones. He struggled in April but has been much better since the calendar flipped to May, totaling eight extra base hits and 10 RBI in 10 May games. Another sign the long balls are coming is that only 8.3 percent of his fly balls have left the yard so far--less than half of his career rate. That might have something to do with the fact that Bruce has been hitting lots of line drives (almost 30 percent of batted balls) at the expense of fly balls (33.6 percent--around 10 percent below his career norm) so expect that ratio to even out as the season progresses.

Matt Kemp (.276/.325/.345)
The Bad: Kemp just hasn't been the same since hamstring injuries derailed the fast start to his 2012 season. He has just one homer on the season and has shown no signs of ending his power outage. The Dodgers are in last place in the NL West, and Kemp's sluggish start is a big reason why.

Why he'll turn it around: Kemp's HR/FB% sits at anemic 2.6 percent, and in each of the past two years it was north of 21 percent. Sooner or later he's going to have a power surge. Kemp's currently riding a 13-game hitting streak and seems to be finding his groove at the dish.

Martin Prado (.235/.290/.346)
The Bad: While Justin Upton has gotten off to a preposterously hot start in Atlanta, Prado has yet to break free of his early season slump. Manager Kirk Gibson was forced to drop him from the two spot in the batting order. Prado's funk extends beyond the batter's box: after stealing a career high 17 bases last year, he's swiped just one bag so far and has been caught twice. He's not driving in runs either, as he's managed just nine RBI so far.

Why he'll turn it around: Prado's batted ball data is identical to his figures from last year, when he batted .301 with 42 doubles. That, and the fact that his .246 BABiP is bound to improve.

Adam LaRoche (.213/.297/.311)
The Bad: Fresh off signing a two-year, $24 million deal to stay with the Washington Nationals, LaRoche has been a non-threat batting in the heart of Davey Johnson's order. He hasn't homered since April 20th and has knocked in just four runs over that span. His K rate has skyrocketed to just under 30 percent but has not coincided with a power spike.

Why he'll turn it around: Like Mark Teixeira, LaRoche is a perennially slow starter. For his career, his OPS rises each month from .695 in April to .911 in August. His first half OPS (.760) is a full 126 points lower than his second half OPS (.886). LaRoche is working on an 11-game hitting streak and may have already turned the corner. He's socked at least 20 homers in each of his last seven full seasons, so as long as he's healthy his numbers will be there in the end.

What's Behind the Red Sox Recent Struggles?

After opening the 2013 season with four weeks of near-perfect baseball, the Boston Red Sox have hit their first rough patch of the year. The stumbling Sox have lost eight of their past ten, falling from first place to third in the American League East.

First, the Sox got swept by the Rangers in Texas. Whatever. The Rangers are a great team. They have the best record in baseball. It happens.

But then Boston dropped three out of four to the Minnesota Twins at home. The Twins are not a great team. Not a bad team (they're .500?!?!), but not a good team either. The Red Sox should have been able to split that series, at the very least.

Things only got worse when the Toronto Blue Jays, who can't seem to do anything right these days, came to town and took two of three from the Red Sox. There's two ways to look at that. On one hand, the Blue Jays are the worst team in the division. They sport a negative-47 run differential and their starting pitching has been atrocious. But on the other hand, Toronto is a dangerous team, one that is simply too good to keep playing sub-.400 ball for much longer. With many of their best players (Jose Bautista, R.A. Dickey, Brett Lawrie) underperforming, it's only a matter of time before they right the ship.

As for the Red Sox, it's not hard to identify what's gone wrong. Offense has been hard to come by recently, with the Sox averaging just 3.27 runs per game over their past 11. David Ortiz and Mike Napoli have cooled off after their hot starts, while Stephen Drew and Will Middlebrooks are still struggling to get in a groove at the plate. Jacoby Ellsbury has slumped lately and isn't getting on base often enough for Boston's big bats. It also didn't help that the team's biggest offensive output in the past two weeks--an eight-run outburst last Wednesday--was wasted when their pitching staff allowed 15 runs to a mediocre Twins offense. Slumps happen and the Red Sox have a good lineup, so I'm not going to worry about it.

However, those offensive woes have coincided with a breakdown in pitching. Boston has allowed 6.2 runs per game over its previous ten. My natural inclination was to assume its starters fell back to earth after their torrid Aprils, but that's hardly the case. Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester (11-0 combined) are still going strong. Ryan Dempster is stabilizing the rotation and keeping his team in the game. Even John Lackey has been effective.

The one eyesore has been Felix Doubront, who has gotten bombed in each of his past two outings. He needs to turn it around soon, or else John Farrell will have to start looking elsewhere (Alfredo Aceves? Allen Webster?) for quality starts.

The bullpen has endured a few lickings lately, but on the whole is still solid even with Joel Hanrahan lost for the season. Luckily Farrell has a proven closer in Andrew Bailey who can step up and fill Hanrahan's shoes, but Bailey's checkered injury history concerns me. He's fine now, but it wouldn't surprise me if Ben Cherington finds himself shopping for a closer in a couple months.

The Red Sox get a day off to lick their wounds before hitting the road. They'll stop in Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Chicago, and if they don't figure things out by the time they come back then it might be time to re-think the idea of this team being a legitimate contender.

Questioning Ortiz

Longtime Boston Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy made waves last week when he questioned the validity of David Ortiz's hot start. Shaughnessy has since caught his fair share of flak for insinuating that Ortiz is using performance enhancing drugs, especially since he did so without any hard evidence to back up his accusations.

But was what Shaughnessy did wrong? I don't think so.

Everyone seems to forget that Ortiz's name is on the list of players who tested positive for performance enhancing drugs. Whereas unlikable players such as Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Alex Rodriguez have constantly been forced to answer to their past mistakes, Ortiz's murky history has been more or less swept under the rug.

That history is particularly relevant given his recent career trajectory. Ortiz struggled mightily in the first two months of 2009 and finished the season with a .238 batting average, nearly 100 points lower than the .332 mark he posted two years before. In 2010 he endured an equally painful start and struck out a career-high 145 times. Though still a great hitter, Ortiz was in his mid-thirties and clearly appeared to be a player in decline.

Then, in 2011 at the age of 35, Ortiz re-established himself as one of the game's dominant offensive forces. By slimming down, cutting his strikeouts in half and improving his performance against lefties, Ortiz rebounded to bat .309/.398/.554 with 29 home runs and 96 RBI (I'm still mystefied as to how he failed to receive any MVP consideration). The following year he was on his way to even bigger numbers when a torn Achilles derailed his season, limiting him to just one game after July 16th..

The same injury cropped up again this year and sidelined him until April 20th, but the combination of injury and missed time didn't stop him from pounding the ball upon his return. In his first 13 games back, Big Papi batted .440/.473/.840 with 17 RBI and a dozen extra base hits. He looked like the David Ortiz of old, hitting the ball with authority to all fields, driving in runs, and anchoring the heart of Boston's order.

Though Ortiz's torrid start to the season was unexpected, that does not mean it was without precedent. As Gordon Edes pointed out, Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams both raked under similar circumstances. Ortiz is hardly the first player to perform so well at such an advanced age, either. Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, and Frank Robinson were still studs in their age 37 seasons. Furthermore, it makes sense that Ortiz is aging gracefully as he's spent most of his career in the DH role, thus avoiding the wear and tear that results from playing the field on a daily basis.

Still, Shaughnessy was fair to wonder whether Ortiz is getting outside help. The steroid era has conditioned baseball fans to suspect everything and trust nothing. Everyone's burned too many times to simply accept a great story at face value. Baseball is much cleaner than it was ten years ago, but PEDs are still a problem. It would be naive not to acknowledge the possibility that Ortiz, who's used them before, could be juicing again.

PEDs are part of his story. They're part of the game. It's a touchy subject but, whether we like it or not, someone had to bring it up.

April All-Stars

I find it ridiculous how MLB opens up its All-Star voting in late April, when some teams are getting snowed out. I understand the league is trying to capitalize while interest in the sport is still high from the Opening Day hangover effect (baseball! spring! grass!), but it's still far too early to make judgments about who should get to attend the Midsummer Classic. The stats are still out of whack.

With only four weeks of baseball in the books, a lot of numbers look fluky because they haven't had time to normalize. But those figures are all we have, dammit, so of course you're going to pick John Buck for the All-Star team. Go ahead, by all means, but beware that a few months down the road, such choices look awfully foolish. That's how we end up with guys like Bryan LaHair making the All-Star team.

That said, here's what the All-Star team would probably look like based on April stats, and nothing else:

C John Buck
It's easy to forget Buck was an All-Star back in 2010, his lone season with the Toronto Blue Jays, when he set a career high with 20 big flies. That power has re-emerged in the early-going--he already has nine home runs and a National League-best 27 RBI.

1B Chris Davis
His long-anticipated breakthrough was for real, folks.

2B Daniel Murphy
The always-solid second baseman is batting .295 with 11 extra base hits and 19 runs scored. With his table setting skills, Murphy's a big reason why the Mets currently rank third in the NL in runs scored.

3B Josh Donaldson
In his age 27 season, Donaldson has come out of nowhere to provide elite production at the hot corner for the Oakland A's. Thanks to his improved batting eye, he's batting .314/.397/.495 with 11 doubles. He's also been coming through with men on base: Miguel Cabrera is the only AL third baseman with more RBI.

SS Jed Lowrie
Lowrie has built upon his breakout with the Astros last year. He's making a great impression with his new team--the Oakland A's--thanks to a .327/.412/.519 batting line and 11 doubles.

OF Coco Crisp
Crisp is a player who generates most of his value with his legs, but so far it's been his surprising power burst that's been making waves. With five long balls, he's almost halfway to last year's homer total (11). The Oakland A's can only hope his DL-stint doesn't derail that early momentum.

OF Nate McLouth
MVClouth (too soon?) has been a force batting at the top of Baltimore's lineup, batting .329 with a .433 OBP and 22 runs scored.

OF Daniel Nava
The miracle worker has keyed Boston's fast start with his heavy hitting.

OF Vernon Wells
Wells has rediscovered the form that convinced the Toronto Blue Jays to hand him a seven-year, $126 million contract. While he's still not worth that kind of money, he is providing steady power batting in the heart of New York's depleted lineup.

OF Starling Marte
With Pittsburgh's purported big bats (Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez) slumping, Marte has picked up the slack with a blistering start. Betcha didn't know he's currently pacing the Senior Circuit in hits.

DH Travis Hafner
Like Wells, Pronk has enjoyed a renaissance in pinstripes. Healthy and hitting for power, Hafner has managed .304/.429/.638 triple slash numbers that line up with the averages from his peak seasons.

SP Ervin Santana
When Santan's bad, he's bad (see last year). But when he's good, like this year or the year before last, he can be quite good.

SP Carlos Villanueva
Back in the NL after a two-year hiatus with the Blue Jays, Villanueva looked great in his first month with the Chicago Cubbies. Forget his 1-1 record and focus on the good stuff, like his 2.29 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 3.22 K/BB ratio.

SP Clay Buchholz
Buchholz was unquestionably the best starting pitcher in baseball last month and appears to be making a run at the Cy Young award.

SP Matt Moore
Moore enjoyed a solid rookie season last year, but a lack of command (4.1 BB/9) prevented him from achieving consistent dominance. Walks have been an issue for him in the early going, but incredible good fortune (.151 BABiP) has helped him go 5-0 with a 1.13 ERA. Unless he starts finding the strike zone more often, he's going to be in trouble when the hits start falling in.

SP Hisashi Iwakuma
The 32 year-old Japanese hurler has continued to baffle major league hitters in his sophomore campaign. His 0.69 WHIP is the best in baseball and his 7.4 K/BB ratio is off the charts. Unfortunately the Mariners are incapable of providing run support, which means his W-L record won't reflect how well he's truly pitched.

CL Jim Henderson
The 30 year-old sophomore has emerged as a top flight closer in the wake of John Axford's atrocious opening week. Henderson's elite ability to miss bats (career 12.7 K/9) suggests that he's a perfect fit for ninth inning duties.

CL Jason Grilli
After Joel Hanrahan hightailed it up to Boston, Grilli stepped in as the Pirates' closer and has been immaculate. His 11 saves lead the big leagues, he's allowed just one earned run in 12 innings of work and he's striking out 4.5 batters for every one he walks.

CL Addison Reed
Reed was an unmitigated disaster after taking over the closer's role last May, posting a 5.80 ERA after May 15th. The White Sox stuck with him though, and so far the early returns have been excellent. The 24 year-old has gone a perfect 9-for-9 in save chances, boasts a 1.50 ERA and is striking out more than a batter per inning.

Some of these players probably won't be relevant in a few months, but several others will have formed legitimate All-Star cases. I'll weigh my options then, when I have a half-season worth of data to pour over. But for now, I'll hold off on voting. If Josh Donaldson makes the All-Star team over Adrian Beltre, I don't want to be responsible for it.