Will the Padres be Any Good?

Myers (pictured) and Kemp make the Padres considerably better (UTSanDiego)

Offensively, the 2014 San Diego Padres were pathetic. Among all 30 major league teams, they ranked dead last in hits, batting average, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, total bases, and, not surprisingly, runs scored. Nobody in their lineup hit more than 15 home runs, and only one player (Seth Smith) surpassed 20 doubles. Nobody who logged more than 70 plate appearances for last year's Padres batted over .270, just as nobody reached the modest totals of 60 runs or 60 RBI. And for a team with such dreadful power, San Diego did not run nearly enough, stealing just 91 bases (ninth in the NL). Unlike the Royals, they failed to overcome their lack of power by manufacturing runs.

And yet, thanks to a sneaky-good pitching staff that ranked second in the National League (and fourth in baseball) with a 3.27 ERA, San Diego finished third in the NL West at 77-85, just four wins shy of a .500 season. With a few lineup upgrades to complement their talented rotation, the Padres would be legitimate postseason contenders in 2015.

Ladies and gentlemen, enter Matt Kemp and Wil Myers, two middle-of-the-order mashers who bring some much-needed thump to San Diego's anemic lineup. Better yet, both are under team control for the next five years. Kemp, dealt by the Dodgers last week, was the 2011 NL MVP runner-up to Ryan Braun, hit 25 home runs last year, and has put up a 140 OPS+ or higher in three of the past four seasons. He's making boatloads of money, but the Dodgers are covering enough so that he'll only cost San Diego around $15 million per year.

And then there's Myers, recently netted through a blockbuster 11 player, three team swap. A product of the Royals farm system, Myers has already been traded once before, going to the Rays (for James Shields and Wade Davis), with whom he earned 2013 AL Rookie of the Year honors despite playing just 88 games. He struggled mightily in his sophomore season, losing more than 200 points off his OPS has he battled injuries and a slow start. He's yet to play more than 90 games in a big league season and must prove he's capable of holding up over a full season, but there's no denying his superstar potential.

PetCo Park is notoriously tough on hitters, but both are coming from sever pitcher's parks in Tampa Bay and Los Angeles. Kemp's numbers should be expected to decline with age (he's already 30), but one would expect Myers to match or exceed his rookie production. Their monster power plays anywhere, so 81 games at PetCo shouldn't murder their numbers (though it definitely won't help). Between them they should be good for five or six additional wins next year, maybe more if Myers really takes off.

So where does that leave the Padres? With an abundance of outfielders (I hear the Red Sox have a similar problem) and a lineup still rife with question marks (do Jedd Gyorko and Will Venable bounce back? Can Carlos Quentin stay healthy? Will Seth Smith replicate his success). They'll score more runs with Kemp and Myers aboard, but perhaps not significantly more given Kemp's age and injury history and Myers's recent struggles.

Assuming the pitching holds steady, San Diego could easily improve to .500 next year, 85 wins if everything goes right. The Dodgers and Giants are still heavy favorites to take first and second place in the division, but both have gotten weaker this offseason and could be ore vulnerable next year. The Padres aren't quite ready to overtake them, but they're definitely going in the right direction. Another big bat or proven starter would go a long way, but they've already improved considerably and it's not even Christmas.

Then again, it's not like the Padres lineup could have gotten any worse.

Dodgers Deal Kemp

The Dodgers were smart to unload Kemp and his giant contract (FoxSports)

The Los Angeles Dodgers finally found someone willing to take Matt Kemp off their hands, and surprisingly it was the San Diego Padres, who have never been known for their willingness to acquire big name talent. Thus ends the endless speculation about Kemp being traded (for now).

The punchless Padres desperately need offense and star power, and Kemp provides a healthy dose of both. Had he played for San Diego last year, he easily would have been their best hitter as well as their highest paid player. A two-time All-Star and Gold Glover, the Padres haven't had a position player as gifted as Kemp since Adrian Gonzalez (excluding Chase Headley's monster 2012).

Problem is, Kemp's not a superstar anymore, even though he's still being paid like one. He's been worth just four bWAR in the past three seasons combined, two of which were cut short by injury. He's still a great hitter (140 OPS+ last year), but can't run like he used to and can't field like he used to. At 30 years old, he might already be on his way down, despite having five years and $107 million remaining on his contract. Playing half his games at Petco only figures to accelerate that decline.

The Dodgers haven't spent their money wisely lately, but kudos to them for getting out from under Kemp's contract, which was doomed to become a Vernon Wells-esque albatross. The $32 million they still have to pay isn't even a third of what would've been required to keep him around, and is well worth the added roster and payroll flexibility. For instance, moving Kemp clears up their surplus of high-priced outfielders, allowing them to go forward with Carl Crawford, Yasiel Puig, and Andre Ethier. It also frees up some funds should they choose to pursue a big ticket starting pitcher like Max Scherzer or James Shields.

This trade comes on the heels of another trade for the Dodgers, the one that brought Jimmy Rollins over from Philadelphia. Rollins remained effective at age 35 last year, worth 3.9 bWAR with 17 home runs, 28 steals in 34 attempts, and decent defense at short. So long as he doesn't fall off a cliff, he should be a solid replacement for the recently departed Hanley Ramirez.

Kemp's Comeback

Finally healthy, Kemp has returned to his previous offensive levels (BlackSportsOnline)

With Yasiel Puig on the up-and-up, Clayton Kershaw headed for a Cy Young/MVP combo meal, and Adrian Gonzalez driving in runs like it's his job, Matt Kemp might not be the star of the Dodgers any more. But you know what? He's still a pretty darn good baseball player.

It was easy to lose sight of that the last two years, when Kemp was constantly hurt and his performance suffered. That was especially true last year, when he missed more than half the season and batted an empty .270/.328/.395. There was legitimate concern that he would never again resemble the two-time All-Star, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove recipient and one-time MVP runner-up. Though he was only 29 coming into the season, his best days appeared to be behind him.

This year Kemp has bounced back in a big way, staying healthy enough to play in all but a dozen games to date and re-asserting himself as one of the best-hitting outfielders in the National League. In that group he ranks sixth in wOBA and wRC+, fifth in home runs and fourth in RBI. Even after factoring in his iffy baserunning, he still rates as one of the Senior Circuit's 10 best offensive outfielders, better than Justin Upton and Ryan Braun, among others.

The bulk of that production has come in the second half. Kemp was horrible in the early going, hitting a paltry .238/.291/.398 through June 5th. He really looked done and was even benched. But then his bat got hot as the weather warmed, and since then he's looked like the Kemp of old. Starting on June 6th he's batted .307/.369/.549 with 23 doubles, 19 homers and 71 RBI in 97 games. Projected over the course of 162 games, those numbers work out to be roughly 30 homers, 40 doubles and 120 RBI. That early season rough patch is now a thing of the past, as most of Kemp's numbers are back up to his 2012 levels--a rebound deserving of the NL Comeback Player of the Year award.

Of course, any analysis of Kemp's performance must also include his defense, which has been abysmal in every sense of the word. A lot of the value he accrued at the plate has been lost to his brutal fielding, so much so that Baseball-Reference estimates him as being worth a mere one win above replacement level this year. FanGraphs is a bit more generous at 1.7, but it's pretty clear that Kemp has regressed as an outfielder. Remember how bad he was in 2010? He's been at least as bad this year, maybe worse. It goes without saying that he will not be winning his third career Gold Glove in 2014.

Kemp is also not the factor he once was on the bases. Since stealing 40 bases in 2011, he's failed to top nine since. Granted, Don Mattingly doesn't need to give him the green light as much now that he has Dee Gordon and Carl Crawford at his disposal, but it's clear that Kemp's hamstring woes have cost him a good chunk of his speed. Kemp's an old-30 and three years into an eight-year, $160 million contract that doesn't look like it's going to work out too well.

At least Kemp can still hit, and that resurgence at the plate was a big key to the Dodgers' winning the NL West again this year. He's second on the team in doubles, home runs, RBI, total bases, and tops in slugging for anyone who's played at least 100 games. He makes their lineup significantly more dangerous and has teamed with Gonzalez, Puig, and Hanley Ramirez to form a pretty intimidating heart of the order most nights. I think it's fair to say that without Kemp, the NL West would probably still be up for grabs.

The Dodgers can only hope that his monster second half doesn't end when October begins.

The Dodgers' Pricey Outfield

I read something that blew my mind today. The Los Angeles Dodgers have upwards of $57 million committed to three outfielders this year: Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, and Andre Ethier. In other words, the Dodgers are giving those three guys close to what the Chicago Cubs and Minnesota Twins paid their entire teams last year, not to mention more than the Astros and Marlins combined.

That wasn't what surprised me though. The Dodgers are the richest team in baseball by far and will spend around $250 million this season. They seem to have infinite money; with a roster that includes four players earning over $20 million apiece and another six set to earn more than 10, they were still able to dig deep and give Clayton Kershaw a $215 million contract extension, then make Masahiro Tanaka an offer. Theirs is a team built around expensive talent

No, what shocked me was that the Dodgers have so much money tied up in those three--about $300 million in future salary commitments if Ethier's vesting option kicks in--and none of them are very good anymore. Or at least they weren't last year, when they were worth about five bWAR put together. A few years ago, that outfield would have been a superb collection of talent. All have Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, All-Star appearances, and serious MVP consideration on their resumes. They all brought something different to the table: Crawford had ridiculous speed, Kemp blended speed with power, and Ethier got on base and hit for power.

Unfortunately for the Dodgers, it's not 2010 anymore. Their star-studded outfield has deteriorated to the point that somebody will need to accept a reduced role so Yasiel Puig can play everyday. If LA had succeeded in trading Kemp, then this wouldn't be an issue, but nobody was too interested in potentially damaged goods who's still due $130 mil over the next six seasons.

So who's it going to be? Puig saw action at all three outfield positions last year but spent the lion's share of his time in right, which would seem to push former Gold Glover Andre Ethier out. But Ethier proved he could play a halfway decent center field while Kemp was on the mend and had the best offensive season of the three. Kemp, a two-time Gold Glove winner in center, will need to prove himself by showing he can stay healthy. Crawford's been a left fielder all his life, spending 1,429 of his 1,468 career games there and winning a Gold Glove in 2010, but his offense is no longer worthy of a corner outfield spot.

Let's take a closer look at each one to try to figure this out:

The youngest, most talented and most expensive of the group is Kemp, who's set to make $21 million this year. That salary comes from the eight-year, $160 million deal he signed after his monster 2011, when he showed just how awesome he could be. Kemp put it all together that year, finishing runner-up to Ryan Braun in the MVP race after falling one home run shy of 40/40 and piling up 8.1 bWAR.

But injuries have ravaged his career since then, limiting him to 106 games in 2012 and just 73 last year, during which his power was non-existent. Health is a big question mark for Kemp going forward, and it remains to be seen if he can recapture the form that made him one of the game's best all-around players before last season. He's too young to write off and has the most bounce back potential of the three.

Then there's Crawford, who's going to cost LA $20 million and some change. Crawford, you might recall, signed his seven-year, $142 million contract with the Red Sox prior to their infamous 2011 disaster. Crawford struggled mightily that year and was hurt the next, causing Boston to dump him (along with Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez and Nick Punto) on the Dodgers in late August. He got off to a hot start last year, only to miss five weeks with a hamstring injury and bat an uninspiring .270/.307/.361 after returning in early July.

Since landing his huge payday, Crawford has not proven himself to be anywhere near the excellent player he was with Tampa Bay. Various injuries have knocked him out of the lineup too often, causing him to miss an average of 70 games per season over the past three. To make matters worse, he hasn't been very productive when he does play, as his 97 OPS+ and 2.3 bWAR in that time can attest. He can still run a bit and hit a little--skills that play well in Dodger Stadium--but doesn't do nearly enough of either to justify his massive salary. That doesn't figure to change much as he prepares to turn 33 this summer. He sucked against southpaws last year, managing a meager .551 OPS against them, and could be the odd man out if he doesn't show signs of rebounding.

Last but not least we have Andre Ethier, who just completed the first year of his ill-advised five-year, $85 million contract extension and will collect $15.5 million this season. Ethier was the most valuable of the trio last year by sheer virtue of staying healthy enough to play 142 games. That looks like far too many for a player who can't hit lefties to save his life (.613 OPS against them last year, .644 for his career) and doesn't offer much power (averaging 14 homers and 68 RBI over his last three seasons).

That said, Ethier is still a comfortably above average offensive player even if his traditional numbers leave something to be desired. He gets on base at a good clip--.360 OBP last year, .362 for his career--and hits lots of doubles, much like Nick Markakis. His bat, which produced a 122 OPS+ last year, was worth close to three wins by itself. So even though Ethier doesn't offer much in the way of speed or defense, he still hits enough to merit a spot in the everyday lineup (with off days coming against lefthanders, of course). He'll be 32 in April, so some decline should be expected.

So to sum it up, Crawford should be the one to sit at first. If I were Don Mattingly I'd keep Puig in right, Kemp in center, and shift Ethier to left. If Kemp breaks down again, let Ethier cover for him (or maybe even give Puig a shot at the glory position) and slide Crawford back to left. It hurts to spend more than $20 million on a fourth outfielder, but that's what teams have been doing with Vernon Wells for years. And besides, if any team can afford to eat that kind of money, it's the Dodgers.

Slow Starts I'm Not Worried About (NL)

It's hard to believe, but we're nearly a quarter of the way through the baseball season. Here are five players who have been major disappointments to their teams, fans, and fantasy owners so far but are bound to get back on track:

Miguel Montero (.192/.291/.280)
The Bad: The Arizona Diamondbacks are in second place in the National League West in spite of their All-Star catcher, who has gotten off to a painfully slow start. The 29 year-old catcher has been unable to find his power stroke with just five extra base hits to date. What's more, he went a full month between his first and second home runs (April 2nd-to-May 3rd). It's not like he's producing in other ways, either, as he's recorded just one multi-RBI game and four-multi-hit efforts to date.

Why he'll turn it around: Montero hasn't lost his batting eye. He posted a career high 12.7 BB% last year and has sustained that improved patience this year. He hasn't responded to his slump by expanding his strike zone and is letting the ball come to him. His .216 BABiP has nowhere to go but up.

Jay Bruce (.258/.306/.403)
The Bad: In addition to piling up strikeouts with frightening regularity (he leads the National League with 52, tied with Dan Uggla), Bruce has seen his walk rate plummet to 6.5 percent. However, the main concern about Bruce is his lack of power. With just three home runs through his first 38 games, he looks nothing like the slugger who averaged 33 dingers per 162 games in his first five seasons.

Why he'll turn it around: Bruce is a streaky hitter, prone to blistering hot streaks and wicked cold ones. He struggled in April but has been much better since the calendar flipped to May, totaling eight extra base hits and 10 RBI in 10 May games. Another sign the long balls are coming is that only 8.3 percent of his fly balls have left the yard so far--less than half of his career rate. That might have something to do with the fact that Bruce has been hitting lots of line drives (almost 30 percent of batted balls) at the expense of fly balls (33.6 percent--around 10 percent below his career norm) so expect that ratio to even out as the season progresses.

Matt Kemp (.276/.325/.345)
The Bad: Kemp just hasn't been the same since hamstring injuries derailed the fast start to his 2012 season. He has just one homer on the season and has shown no signs of ending his power outage. The Dodgers are in last place in the NL West, and Kemp's sluggish start is a big reason why.

Why he'll turn it around: Kemp's HR/FB% sits at anemic 2.6 percent, and in each of the past two years it was north of 21 percent. Sooner or later he's going to have a power surge. Kemp's currently riding a 13-game hitting streak and seems to be finding his groove at the dish.

Martin Prado (.235/.290/.346)
The Bad: While Justin Upton has gotten off to a preposterously hot start in Atlanta, Prado has yet to break free of his early season slump. Manager Kirk Gibson was forced to drop him from the two spot in the batting order. Prado's funk extends beyond the batter's box: after stealing a career high 17 bases last year, he's swiped just one bag so far and has been caught twice. He's not driving in runs either, as he's managed just nine RBI so far.

Why he'll turn it around: Prado's batted ball data is identical to his figures from last year, when he batted .301 with 42 doubles. That, and the fact that his .246 BABiP is bound to improve.

Adam LaRoche (.213/.297/.311)
The Bad: Fresh off signing a two-year, $24 million deal to stay with the Washington Nationals, LaRoche has been a non-threat batting in the heart of Davey Johnson's order. He hasn't homered since April 20th and has knocked in just four runs over that span. His K rate has skyrocketed to just under 30 percent but has not coincided with a power spike.

Why he'll turn it around: Like Mark Teixeira, LaRoche is a perennially slow starter. For his career, his OPS rises each month from .695 in April to .911 in August. His first half OPS (.760) is a full 126 points lower than his second half OPS (.886). LaRoche is working on an 11-game hitting streak and may have already turned the corner. He's socked at least 20 homers in each of his last seven full seasons, so as long as he's healthy his numbers will be there in the end.