Sunday, September 7, 2014

Posey's Push for MVP

Posey's big second half should earn him some serious MVP consideration (FP911)
With the National League MVP race wide open, Buster Posey has forced his way into the discussion with his recent hot streak.

The 2012 MVP has been on fire since the day before the All-Star break with an extraordinary .363/.406/.621 batting line, 11 home runs and 37 RBI in that time. He's now up to .310/.361/.494-20-79 on the season, outstanding numbers for a catcher playing half his games in one of baseball's most pitching-friendly venues. One of the Senior Circuit's best hitters on a league and park adjust basis, Posey ranks third in offensive bWAR, fifth in adjusted OPS+ and eighth in adjusted batting runs.

Furthermore, Posey's hot play has helped his Giants keep pace with the Dodgers all summer long. As of this morning San Francisco sat just two games out of first in the NL West. With 20 games remaining on their schedule, the Giants still have plenty of time to pass the Dodgers and steal the division title out from under them. And considering how well San Francisco's played lately, winning 15 of their last 22, it's not hard to imagine them finishing with a fury and blowing by LA during the season's final days.

If that happens and Posey continues to rake, he's going to have a very interesting MVP case. Not only does he lead the team in most key offensive categories (home runs, RBI, all three slash stats), but on most days he also mans the most important non-pitching position on the demand (only Jonathan Lucroy and Miguel Montero have caught more games among NL receivers). It's no wonder, then, that Baseball-Reference rates him as the team's most valuable player by WAR.

So Posey may not have the flashy slugging numbers of a Mike Trout or Giancarlo Stanton, he definitely belongs in the MVP conversation.


  1. he's well behind Lucroy in WAR.

  2. Lucroy's numbers are ballooned by his defensive metrics, something that is very unreliable when factoring in for a catcher. Lucroy's offensive numbers don't hold a candle to Poseys.

    Lucroy: 71 R, 13 HR, 67 RBIs, 303 average
    Posey: 69 R, 21 HR, 86 RBI, 312 average

    Buster has a legitimate, if slim, chance of hitting over 100 RBIs, something that should certainly put him in contention for the MVP award. This holds especially true if the Giants end up winning the NL West