Boston Finds Another Ace

When Boston needed an ace last year, Porcello stepped up (BoSox Injection)

When the Red Sox signed David Price to a seven-year, $217 million contract last winter, they got one of baseball’s finest pitchers in return. In a rotation without a clear number one starter, he immediately became Boston’s undisputed ace.

In his first season with the Red Sox, however, Price was anything but. He struggled mightily during the first half, carrying a 4.74 ERA into July before settling at 3.99 -- his worst mark since he was a 23-year-old rookie (as was his 1.20 WHIP). He surrendered the most hits (227) in the Majors and was prone to mid-game meltdowns, including one that ended his lone postseason start after 3 1/3 innings.

Thankfully for Boston, another pitcher stepped up to lead its rotation. Enter Rick Porcello, Price’s former teammate in Detroit who now finds himself flanking the 2012 AL Cy Young winner yet again.

Only this time, the roles are reversed. Porcello was Boston’s top starter in his second year with the club while Price is still finding his groove. After scuffling in his Red Sox debut, Porcello bounced back to win the AL Cy Young, leading the Majors with 22 wins and a 5.91 K/BB ratio.

Porcello's success wasn't just limited to 2016, either, as he was arguably Boston’s best pitcher in the second half of 2015, posting a 3.49 ERA after Independence Day. He was even better down the stretch with a 3.14 ERA over his final eight starts. Since coming off the Disabled List that August, Porcello has looked like a completely different pitcher, striking out batters at the highest rate of his career.

Once a ground-baller who struggled to miss bats, Porcello’s now a whiff-machine. He went from middle-of-the-rotation innings-eater to staff ace almost overnight–a truly stunning transformation. He began relying on his sinker again after getting away from it in the early part of 2015, mixing it with nasty change-ups and cutters. The result has been a whole new pitcher; Rick Porcello 2.0.

Of course, Porcello is unlikely to be the ace in 2017 with Chris Sale now on board and Price expected to bounce back, but he doesn't have to be. Even if he regresses to 2015 levels, he'll still be a strong number-three -- precisely what the Red Sox were hoping for when they signed him to that $82.5 million extension.

Sox Suffer First Lost

Porcello pitched well but lost due to lack of run support (Boston Globe)

 The Boston Red Sox, my pick to win the American League this year, remained undefeated for exactly one game. Maybe I should start re-thinking that prediction.

The afterglow of Boston's 8-0 Opening Day beatdown faded quickly, as the Red Sox lost 4-2 last night. With the game time temperature dipping below 40 degrees, Boston's bats went cold after blasting five home runs in Monday afternoon's slugfest, managing just two singles and no runs through the first seven innings.

Rick Porcello and Aaron Harang, both debuting with their respective teams, traded scoreless frames until the sixth, when Philadelphia broke through for three runs. After fanning Ryan Howard to open the bottom of the frame, Porcello hiccuped. A walk, a single, and a just-enough homer to Jeff Francoeur of all people (of course he plays for the Phillies) made it 3-0 Philly in an eyeblink. Porcello got out of the inning without further damage, but his mistake to Frenchy ultimately cost his new team the game.

With Philadelphia leading 4-0 in the top of the eighth, having added an insurance run on a Chase Utley sacrifice fly, Boston rallied against Ken Giles. A Darin Ruf fielding error, Xander Bogaerts' single, and three walks--the last a bases loaded free pass to Pablo Sandoval--let in two Red Sox runs. With the bases still loaded and two down, Ryne Sandberg called for his closer, Jonathan Papelbon, to get out of the jam against his former team.

For a heart-stopping moment, the substitution appeared to backfire when Hanley Ramirez--his bat still smoldering from his pair of Opening Day homers--unloaded on an 0-1 pitch, driving it high and deep towards the left-center field wall. A couple months from now it probably lands in the seats, but the cold caused it to die on the warning track just shy of the 374 sign.

The next two Boston at-bats ended similarly, with fly balls harmlessly dropping into the mitt of Phillies left fielder Ben Revere. With the Sox down to their last out, Ryan Hanigan reached on catcher's interference, bringing the potential tying-run to the plate in the form of Bogaerts.  It was a classic baseball matchup of a battle-tested closer staring down the eager kid at the plate. This time, experience won out, as Pap whiffed Bogaerts to end the game and earn his 326th career save.

Other notes: the recently-extended Porcello pitched very well until his sixth-inning speed bump, but let's wait and see how he fares against a real lineup...Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, and Hanley Ramirez went a combined 0-for-10 after hitting five home runs between them on Monday...Mike Napoli went 0-for-4 in place of David Ortiz...Sandoval notched his first Red Sox hit, going 2-for-3 with an RBI walk...Boston's struggles with runners in scoring position continued, as they are now 2-for-13 in such situations...Francoeur's long ball was the only extra base hit of the game...There was some sloppy defense, with both teams making two errors resulting in three unearned runs...Philadelphia had twice as many runs and twice as many hits as Boston...Both teams left six men on base.

Boston will look to take the rubber game today behind Justin Masterson, making his first start for the Red Sox since 2009. Philadelphia will counter with ground-baller David Buchanan, fresh off a solid rookie season in which he posted a 3.75 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 117 and 2/3 innings. With tonight's forecast looking cold and rainy, don't expect much offense.

Panning Boston's Porcello Extension

Did the Boston Red Sox pay Porcello too much? (Off The Monster)

Posted below are the numbers for two American League starting pitchers from 2009 through 2013.

Pitcher A: 1,021.2 IP, 3.74 ERA (116 ERA+), 3.56 FIP, 1.27 WHIP, 2.73 K/BB ratio, 19.5 bWAR
Pitcher B:   868.2 IP, 4.51 ERA (94 ERA+), 4.11 FIP, 1.39 WHIP, 2.37 K/BB ratio, 6.7 bWAR

When it came time to extend pitcher A last spring, the Boston Red Sox offered him four years and $70 million. They just extended pitcher B for four years and $82.5 million, on top of the $12.5 million they're already paying him this year.

Huh?

Pitcher A, as you should have guessed, is Jon Lester. He turned down Boston's pitiful offer, had the best year of his career, and landed a six-year, $155 million megadeal with the Chicago Cubs. Pitcher B is Rick Porcello, whom Boston smartly traded Yoenis Cespedes for in December and extended yesterday. Porcello also enjoyed a career year in 2014, albeit not at the same level as Lester's.

Whereas the Red Sox clearly undervalued Lester last year, it appears they overvalued Porcello here. They're banking on him sustaining last year's success, which I wouldn't count on now that he pitches half his games in Fenway Park. That wouldn't worry me so much if he was someone who misses a lot of bats, but he isn't. His career strikeout rate is 5.5 K/9, well below league average. Porcello pitches to contact, and in Fenway's friendly confines contact usually leads to lots of singles and doubles. Whatever benefit he stands to gain from an improved defense behind him (Detroit's infield was terrible, which explains the sizable difference between his ERA and FIP) figures to be negated and then some by his new home park.

Red Sox management clearly views Porcello as a great pitcher, but I don't see it. I mean yeah, he's durable, but he's only cleared 200 innings in a season once. His walk rate is low, but he gives up a lot of hits and hardly strikes anyone out. He's tall and generates lots of ground balls, he's never spent a day on the disabled list, and he has postseason experience, but is that worth investing $95 million in him from this year through 2019?

Even though Boston's getting his prime years, I don't think so. Before last year, Porcello was a midrotation innings eater, a low-end number three or solid four in Detroit's rotation. Boston's lack of quality starters makes him their ace or, if Clay Buchholz is the ace, then their number two. Porcello would have been a fine number two last year had he not been on the same team as Max Scherzer, David Price, Anibal Sanchez, and Justin Verlander.

He's not an ace, though, and $20 million a year is ace money. At this stage in his career--26 years old and with more than 1,000 big league innings under his belt--Porcello's not going to get much better. He is who he is at this point, and that's a middle of the road, average to slightly-above average starting pitcher. There's no need to commit five years and nearly $100 million to one of those when they can be found much cheaper on the free agent market every year, or can be developed from within at a fraction of the cost.

If I was Cherington, I would have waited to see how not only how Porcello adjusts to pitching at Fenway, but also how this year unfolds for his team. It's not hard to imagine a scenario where Boston's rotation bursts into flame, in which case Cherington could have shipped Porcello to a contender for a nice haul of prospects.

So why did Cherington make this move now? I'm willing to bet he wanted to avoid repeating the same mistake he made last year by failing to lock down Lester early and letting negotiations drag on, which ultimately resulted in his being traded to Oakland. I also think Cherington wanted some security and stability in a rotation that is very much in flux, what with Buchholz perpetually injured, Justin Masterson in on a one-year deal, and Joe Kelly better-suited for the bullpen. Porcello is sturdy and reliable--a rock--and letting him go would have made Boston's rotation even more uncertain going forward.

Guys like that are nice to have, but I wouldn't commit almost $100 million to one.

Boston Bolsters Rotation Via Trades

Miley makes Boston's rotation marginally better (ESPN)

The Red Sox moved quickly after missing out on Jon Lester, pulling off a pair of trades that will bring starting pitchers Wade Miley and Rick Porcello to Boston. While neither are anywhere near Lester's caliber, both are younger and just as durable. They're quality major league arms that make Boston's rotation more formidable.

The Miley trade was consummated first, sending Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa, the pitching prospects acquired in Boston's 2012 blockbuster trade with the Dodgers, to Arizona. Webster, 24, has failed to impress at the major league level with a 6.25 ERA, 5.08 FIP, and 1.58 WHIP in 19 big league appearances (18 starts). Clearly the Red Sox did not like what they saw from last summer's audition and felt it was time to move on.

De La Rosa, 25, showed flashes of dominance but has been wildly inconsistent in his major league career, yielding a 4.34 ERA and 1.46 WHIP across 174 and 1/3 innings. Like Felix Doubront, he hasn't been able to translate his great stuff into steady success. Boston was wise to move both while they were still young and raw enough to command some value on the trade market. Each still has the potential to develop into a quality major league starter some day, albeit probably at the back end of someone's rotation. Perhaps they're destined to be bullpen guys. Either way, it seems highly unlikely that Boston just traded away a couple of aces in the making.

Miley's by no means an ace, either, but has been solid since debuting in 2011. He holds a 3.79 career ERA (103 ERA+) equal to his FIP, meaning his results are in line with his skills. He's gone downhill since making the All-Star team and finishing second in the 2012 NL Rookie of the Year voting to Bryce Harper, however, but still made 33 starts and topped 200 innings in each of the past two years with a 3.98 FIP each year. He's also lefthanded, which is a plus for a team that was counting on Lester's return but could spell trouble whenever he toes the rubber in Fenway Park. Good thing he's generated ground balls on more than half the balls he's allowed in play over the past two years.

As if moving to the Fenway and the American League isn't scary enough, the trends in his peripherals are positively frightening. His home run, walk, and hit rates have gone up since 2012, causing his WHIP to jump from 1.18 to 1.32 to 1.40. His ERA has risen more than a full run as he's gone from a solidly above average pitcher to a solidly below average one. At 28, he's an innings eater with little upside, as whatever bounce back potential he has will likely be offset by his transition to the AL East. At least he's under team control for three more years, which gives him a bit of re-sale value should he flop in his Red Sox debut.

Porcello will pitch for Boston in 2015 (HardballTalk)

Porcello, another ground ball pitcher, appears to be the better get here. Boston dealt Yoenis Cespedes to Detroit for him, fulfilling the Tigers' need for a right fielder in the wake of Torii Hunter's departure (three minor leaguers were also involved, two leaving Boston and one from Detroit). Like Cespedes, Porcello will be a free agent next winter, which means the Red Sox probably won't be committed to him beyond 2015.

Unlike Miley, the soon-to-be 26 year-old has become a better pitcher in recent years. His ERA has improved every year since 2010 and so has his ERA+. Last year was the best of Porcello's six-year career, resulting in a career-high 15 wins, 204 and 2/3 innings, 3.43 ERA, 116 ERA+, and 1.23 WHIP, not to mention his major league leading three shutouts (tied with Henderson Alvarez and Adam Wainwright). He probably won't replicate those numbers pitching half his games at Fenway Park next year, but should be good for around 180 league average innings.

His ability to do that over the course of his career has been surprisingly valuable. Despite a career 4.30 ERA (98 ERA+), he's been worth at least 1.7 fWAR every year and at least 2.6 in each of his last four, meaning his floor is pretty high. Seeing as how 2015 is his final arbitration year, he won't come cheap, but at least he'll stabilize Boston's rotation and be a reliable starter every fifth day. Like Miley, he's predominately a ground-ball pitcher who shouldn't suffer too much at Fenway's friendly confines and will benefit away from Detriot's abysmal infield defense (though I'm not sure Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez/Xander Bogaerts on the left side is much better). He also has postseason experience, having pitched for Detroit's division-winning ballclubs in the past.

While these moves fill out the back of Boston's rotation beyond Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly, they still leave the Red Sox in need of an ace. Max Scherzer and James Shields are still available if Boston's open to reinvesting the money they planned to give Lester, or package some of their many prospects for Mat Latos or Cole Hamels. Either way the price is going to be steep, but the Red Sox must land one of those guys in order to contend next year.

Boston's rotation looks considerably better than it did yesterday, but there is still work to be done.