Bautista Primed for Disappointment

Bautista is looking for a nine-figure contract extension from Toronto (Twin Cities)

Jose Bautista is one of the Toronto Blue Jays' best players, as well as one of the best players in baseball. He's also going to be a free agent next year, so obviously Toronto would like to keep him. But at what cost?

Apparently, that cost is going to be at least $150 million over five years, which is a lot of money. Only two position players--Jason Heyward and Chris Davis--signed for that much last offseason, and both of them were at least half a decade younger than Bautista. But as tempting as it might be for the Jays to let him walk and save themselves a bundle of money, they're built to win now. After snapping the longest postseason drought in American professional sports last year, they're looking to go on a different kind of run, or at least stay competitive in what is always a tough division. Losing Bautista would make that considerably harder.

So over the next several months, the Blue Jays have to ask themselves: is he worth it?

By the numbers, absolutely. Nobody's homered more often over the past six years than Joey Bats, who's averaged 38 long ones and 97 RBI per season. With a .390 OBP during that time, the six-time All-Star is also among the best in the sport at getting on base, which is why only three players--Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, and Joey Votto--have eclipsed his wRC+, wOBA, and total offensive value over the past half-dozen seasons.

Bautista's bat has made him one of the most valuable players in the game, despite minimal contributions on the basepaths and middling defense. FanGraphs estimates he's been the sixth-best position player this decade, dead-even with Robinson Cano and just a win behind Votto. Considering Bautista's been worth roughly 5.5 wins a season over the last six and that wins are running teams around $8 million these days, $30 million a year is more than fair. In fact, it's downright charitable. Based on the cost of wins, he's been worth more than that in five of the last six years, when his average salary was only $11 million per season. Bautista should be earning three times that.

So why won't he? Age. Bautista turned 35 in October, and there's no precedent for a player that old signing a contract that big. Teams simply don't give guys in their mid-30s nine-figure contracts, mainly because players are too far removed from their primes by then (in the last 40 years, only two players have averaged four wins per season from ages 36-40, the years Bautista's contract would be covering. One of them was Barry Bonds. The other was Edgar Martinez).

 

The game is only getting younger as aging curves have shifted. With speed and defense becoming more emphasized in these pitching-rich times, teams are placing more value on players in their 20s. They want guys who can run and field, so they'd rather invest in younger, less talented players than older players who could fall off a cliff at a moment's notice, no matter how good they've been in the past.

Bautista's the perfect example why. He's been injured recently and is a bat-only player at this stage in his career, so if he suddenly stops hitting he'll have no way to contribute. Any team that signs him is banking on him to hold up into his late-30s, which is usually a terrible bet.

In Bautista's case, however, it might not be. Like Raul Ibanez, David Ortiz, and Edgar Martinez, he was a late bloomer who's been much better in his 30s than he ever was in his 20s. He's shown no signs of slowing down, as he just whacked 40 homers and led the league in walks last year. That might be because he didn't become a full-time player until his late-20s, and thus has a lot less mileage than most players his age.

 

It also helps that he's begun DH'ing more frequently in recent years, and would likely do so full-time if Edwin Encarnacion weren't such a butcher in the field. Seeing more time at DH would help prolong his career, but the Blue Jays are in a tricky situation where they have two excellent hitters who really shouldn't be playing the field. If they decide to keep Bautista and let Encarnacion (also a free agent next winter) leave, they could slot the former in as their everyday DH and hope he continues to rake until his 40th birthday, a la Ortiz and Martinez.

This is a big year for Bautista. If he has another monster campaign (which the projections say he will) and Toronto doesn't extend him, he'll be the best player in next winter's free agent class. That alone could drive up his asking price, especially if a bidding war ensues over his services.

Still, it's hard to see Bautista breaking the bank, no matter how good he is this year. Look no further than last year when Victor Martinez, coming off a dominant season at the same age, got only four years and $68 million on the open market (which already looks like a huge mistake). Bautista could probably fetch $20 million a year, but $30 million appears out of the question. Which is too bad for him, because he's been worth that much before and might still be in the future, but at this point he's just too old to trust.

Panning Boston's Porcello Extension

Did the Boston Red Sox pay Porcello too much? (Off The Monster)

Posted below are the numbers for two American League starting pitchers from 2009 through 2013.

Pitcher A: 1,021.2 IP, 3.74 ERA (116 ERA+), 3.56 FIP, 1.27 WHIP, 2.73 K/BB ratio, 19.5 bWAR
Pitcher B:   868.2 IP, 4.51 ERA (94 ERA+), 4.11 FIP, 1.39 WHIP, 2.37 K/BB ratio, 6.7 bWAR

When it came time to extend pitcher A last spring, the Boston Red Sox offered him four years and $70 million. They just extended pitcher B for four years and $82.5 million, on top of the $12.5 million they're already paying him this year.

Huh?

Pitcher A, as you should have guessed, is Jon Lester. He turned down Boston's pitiful offer, had the best year of his career, and landed a six-year, $155 million megadeal with the Chicago Cubs. Pitcher B is Rick Porcello, whom Boston smartly traded Yoenis Cespedes for in December and extended yesterday. Porcello also enjoyed a career year in 2014, albeit not at the same level as Lester's.

Whereas the Red Sox clearly undervalued Lester last year, it appears they overvalued Porcello here. They're banking on him sustaining last year's success, which I wouldn't count on now that he pitches half his games in Fenway Park. That wouldn't worry me so much if he was someone who misses a lot of bats, but he isn't. His career strikeout rate is 5.5 K/9, well below league average. Porcello pitches to contact, and in Fenway's friendly confines contact usually leads to lots of singles and doubles. Whatever benefit he stands to gain from an improved defense behind him (Detroit's infield was terrible, which explains the sizable difference between his ERA and FIP) figures to be negated and then some by his new home park.

Red Sox management clearly views Porcello as a great pitcher, but I don't see it. I mean yeah, he's durable, but he's only cleared 200 innings in a season once. His walk rate is low, but he gives up a lot of hits and hardly strikes anyone out. He's tall and generates lots of ground balls, he's never spent a day on the disabled list, and he has postseason experience, but is that worth investing $95 million in him from this year through 2019?

Even though Boston's getting his prime years, I don't think so. Before last year, Porcello was a midrotation innings eater, a low-end number three or solid four in Detroit's rotation. Boston's lack of quality starters makes him their ace or, if Clay Buchholz is the ace, then their number two. Porcello would have been a fine number two last year had he not been on the same team as Max Scherzer, David Price, Anibal Sanchez, and Justin Verlander.

He's not an ace, though, and $20 million a year is ace money. At this stage in his career--26 years old and with more than 1,000 big league innings under his belt--Porcello's not going to get much better. He is who he is at this point, and that's a middle of the road, average to slightly-above average starting pitcher. There's no need to commit five years and nearly $100 million to one of those when they can be found much cheaper on the free agent market every year, or can be developed from within at a fraction of the cost.

If I was Cherington, I would have waited to see how not only how Porcello adjusts to pitching at Fenway, but also how this year unfolds for his team. It's not hard to imagine a scenario where Boston's rotation bursts into flame, in which case Cherington could have shipped Porcello to a contender for a nice haul of prospects.

So why did Cherington make this move now? I'm willing to bet he wanted to avoid repeating the same mistake he made last year by failing to lock down Lester early and letting negotiations drag on, which ultimately resulted in his being traded to Oakland. I also think Cherington wanted some security and stability in a rotation that is very much in flux, what with Buchholz perpetually injured, Justin Masterson in on a one-year deal, and Joe Kelly better-suited for the bullpen. Porcello is sturdy and reliable--a rock--and letting him go would have made Boston's rotation even more uncertain going forward.

Guys like that are nice to have, but I wouldn't commit almost $100 million to one.

Revisiting Boston's Miley Extension

Photo credit: The Sports Quotient

(In light of yesterday's Rick Porcello extension, I just wanted to say my piece about Wade Miley, who received his own contract extension nearly two months ago).

The Boston Red Sox must really like Wade Miley. Not only did they trade three players (Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, and Raymel Flores) to the Arizona Diamondbacks for him last December 12, but they also signed him to a three-year, $19.25 million contract extension before he threw a single pitch for them.

"I think, obviously, with Wade going into his first arbitration year, he's a guy we traded for for a reason—because we like him and we believe that he's going to help us win games," Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington toldMLB.com’s Ian Browne. "When we traded for him, our full expectation was that he could be here for a while.”

Though Miley is coming off a down year in which he went 8-12 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, Boston determined that he would be a good fit and proposed an extension. Miley expressed interest as well, allowing the two sides to strike a deal on February 5, over two weeks in advance of spring training.

"While we've gotten to know him a little better since the trade, we felt very comfortable with who we were acquiring even before the trade,” Cherington told Browne. “So it made these talks relatively easy, because aside from his performance and durability, he's got a reputation as a good person, a good clubhouse guy, a good teammate. So it made it easier to get into this kind of conversation.

"And so we were either going to try to figure out a one-year number either through a settlement or a hearing or look at some different model or different contract,” Cherington continued. “And I think there was interest from Wade, and he expressed through his agent Tom O'Connell about looking at that."

Miley, 28, is also elated to be part of Boston’s long-term plans and looks forward to beginning his Red Sox career.

"I'm just excited to get the commitment and everything, and hopefully everything works out and we're going to win some ballgames," Miley said via telephone to MLB.com. "I'm just thrilled to be a part of this Red Sox Nation and be a part of the organization and excited to get it going."

The former National League All-Star will feature prominently in Boston’s remade rotation, which has only one holdover—Clay Buchholz—from last year’s Opening Day staff. The southpaw joins newcomers Rick Porcello and Justin Masterson in trying to help the Red Sox rebound from a last place finish. Unlike his new rotation-mates, Miley faces the additional challenges of adjusting to the American League and a ballpark that is notoriously tough on left-handed pitchers. As of yet, however, he does not intend to modify his approach.

“I just try to get guys out at all costs, really. I don’t care what pitch I’m throwing,” Miley said in his teleconference. “My goal is to just try to get hitters out and give [Boston] a chance to win.”

Cherington cited Miley’s health and makeup as reasons for the extension.

"The best predictor of future durability and performance is past durability and performance," Cherington explained to Browne. "He's taken the ball consistently. He's been a guy that was relied upon by Arizona. Aside from his durability, we had done a lot of work on Wade prior to the trade, just in terms of what kind of guy he was. We had a lot of confidence in what type of person Wade is before we traded for him.”

The contract includes a $500,000 signing bonus and covers Miley’s three arbitration years, paying him $3.5 million this year, $6 million next year and $8.75 million in 2017. The deal also includes a $12 million club option for 2018, which would allow Boston to prevent him from reaching free agency that year. The option has a $500,000 buyout should the Red Sox decline it.

Miley will get his first taste of the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry when he makes his Boston debut at Yankee Stadium on Friday.

Mesoraco Move Makes Sense

Mesoraco was an All-Star and an elite hitter in 2014 (Fantasy Baseball Dugout)

The Cincinnati Reds haven't done much to applaud this offseason, mainly because they haven't done much at all. Cincy made an outstanding move yesterday, however, locking up catcher Devin Mesoraco with a four-year, $28 million extension that will cover his three arbitration seasons and first year of free agency.

Given that teams are paying roughly $6 million for a win on the open market these days and accounting for inflation, Mesoraco will only need to be worth about one win above replacement per year over the life of the contract to earn his keep. Seeing as how he was worth around 4.5 WAR last year alone, he should have no problem accruing a similar value over the next four years combined (which, by the way, also happen to cover the prime ages of 27-30).

Unless, of course, Mesoraco turns out to be a massive fluke, but I don't think he is (neither does ESPN's David Schoenfield). One might question last year's 25 home runs and .893 OPS (149 OPS+) in light of his 16 home runs and .641 OPS (74 OPS+) from 2011-2013, but I wouldn't. I see Mesoraco's breakout as a product of age (he was 26 last year) and increased experience (he had just 589 major league plate appearances before last year). Catchers also tend to bloom later than other position players, not that there's anything out of the ordinary about a 26 year-old putting it all together.

As for the how/why behind Mesoraco's breakthrough, Jeff Sullivan over at FanGraphs provides a detailed explanation. From what I can see, the Reds' receiver enjoyed a huge boost in BABiP, which at .309 is only 10 points higher than the league average but represents a mammoth improvement over his career average. That was strange to see, considering that a) his line drive rate remained about the same as 2013, b) he hit more fly balls than ground balls last year, and c) he's slow as molasses. Perhaps last year was mere regression to the mean after three straight years of horrendous luck on batted balls, but a .309 BABiP just doesn't jibe with Mesoraco's 2014 hit distribution. Accordingly, I'd project him to be a .250 hitter going forward rather than the .273 batter he was last year.

And what about the power? Mesoraco can hit .250 all he wants if he keeps hammering 25 balls out of the yard every year, something only Brian McCann and Wilin Rosario have proven to be capable of doing among the current crop of backstops. Given the large increases in his strikeout and fly ball rate, Mesoraco appears to have sold out for the long ball by lengthening his swing, which certainly worked for him last year (and should continue to in Great American Ball Park). That said, in 2014 his fly balls left the yard about twice as often as they had in the past and more frequently than the league average, which leads me to believe he's due for a bit of regression in this area. Not much, but enough to cap him at roughly 20 big flies rather than 25 or 30.

I guess this is all a long-winded way of saying that I think Mesoraco's true talent level is probably closer to what he did during the second half last year. He was a monster in the first half, doing his best Mike Piazza impression by batting .320/.387/.667 through June 24th. After that, natural regression combined with pitcher adjustments limited him to .244/.342/.449 the rest of the way. Those are still terrific numbers for a catcher in today's offense-challenged times, and I'll readily admit that Mesoraco could make his own adjustments this year. It's just highly unlikely he'll be as good as he was last year, if only because he was so exceptionally good last year.

Then again, he doesn't have to be. If he's only 75-80 percent of the player he was last year, he's still an awesome hitter. And if last year does turn out to be a fluke, and he's only a so-so hitter from this point onward, then he'll still comfortably exceed one WAR per year so long as he's healthy. The Reds aren't banking on four more All-Star seasons from Mesoraco; they're merely paying him to be an everyday catcher. If his bat turns out to be legit, then he'll wind up being an incredible bargain, but he'll still be one even if it doesn't.

Seager Secures Extension

Seager's underrated but still worth the money (FootballsFuture)

The Seattle Mariners just gave Kyle Seager a seven-year, $100 million contract extension that locks up his arbitration years and first four free agent seasons, plus an option for an eighth year.

Hold the phone, Seattle just gave $100 million to whom?

Since debuting in 2011, Seager has quietly established himself as one of the better (and more underappreciated) players in the game. Over the past three years, Seager was the sixth-best third baseman in baseball per fWAR, ahead of established superstars such as Evan Longoria, Hanley Ramirez, and Pablo Sandoval.

While Seager is not well-known, he's worthy of this deal for a number of reasons. One is that he's just 27, smack dab in the middle of his prime. Another is that he's a great two-way third baseman, and thus excels at a tough position.

But really, Seager deserves the dough because he's a terrific baseball player.  He's steadily improved throughout his four big league seasons, peaking with last year's 5.5 fWAR, first All-Star appearance, and first Gold Glove (which should have gone to Josh Donaldson, but Seager's smooth defensively nevertheless). He also popped 25 home runs--his third straight season with at least 20--and knocked in 96 runs, both career highs.

Wait, there's more. Seager's incredibly durable, having played at least 155 games in each of the last three years and leading all third basemen in games played during that span. He doesn't strike out a lot for a guy with good power and walks a fair amount. His offense was 26 percent better than average last year after adjustments for league and park, and like I said his numbers have only trended upwards. Even if 2014 was his peak and he regresses back to the player he was in 2012 and 2013, he's still a 3.5 win guy, which is very valuable, especially to a team on the brink of contention like the Mariners.

This deal makes a ton of sense for Seattle, setting them up at the hot corner for the foreseeable future. It also makes a ton of sense for Seager, because $100 million is a lot of money.

Gyorko Gets Extension

Gyorko's elite power compensates for his deficiencies in other areas of the game (RantSports)

Padres second baseman Jedd Gyorko received a six-year, $35 million contract extension today that will take effect immediately. The deal, which makes Gyorko a cornerstone of San Diego's lineup through the rest of the decade, is the third-largest for a player with just one year of service time after Andrelton Simmons and Ryan Braun. It buys out his first year of free agency and also includes a club option for the seventh year/his second free agent year (2020--his age 31 season) priced at $13 million.

The Padres were quick to extend Gyorko, who made his big league debut last Opening Day. Though he's off to a slow start this year with a .531 OPS through his first 12 games, the 25 year-old appears to have a bright future after his strong 2013 campaign. His 23 home runs led the team and ranked second among MLB second baseman (behind Robinson Cano's 27) and was the third-most in big league history by a rookie second baseman, trailing Dan Uggla's 27 with the Marlins in 2006 and Joe Gordon's 25 for the Yankees in 1938.

That power outburst (he also socked 26 doubles), made even more impressive by the facct that Gyorko plays half his games at the power-sapping Petco Park, helped him finish sixth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, ahead of Nolan Arenado and Evan Gattis but behind the quintet of Jose Fernandez, Yasiel Puig, Shelby Miller, Hyun-jin Ryu and Julio Teheran. Had he not missed 30 games to a groin injury, he may have reached 30 home runs and finished higher in the voting. As it is, he still managed to lead all rookies in home runs, OBP, and SLG. He also became the first rookie second baseman in baseball history to lead his team in RBI (with 63).

Gyorko's power is obvious but he is far from a finished product, or a complete ballplayer, for that matter. For starters, he doesn't contribute much defensively or on the basepaths (just one steal). His .249/.301/.444 batting line was not particularly impressive, though it still produced an OPS that was 13 percent better than average when adjusted for league and park. His plate discipline is also an issue as he whiffed 123 times while drawing just 32 unintentional walks last year, a nearly 4:1 ratio that has carried over into this season (16/4 K/BB) and is reminiscent of the figures Will Middlebrooks posted in his rookie season (which was followed by a brutal sophomore slump). Gyorko proved to be a streaky hitter last year, with 15 of his home runs coming after August 1st, and will likely remain one if he doesn't adopt a more patient plate approach. But seeing as how Gyorko's already in his prime at 25, he doesn't figure to get much better, but it's reasonable to expect he might become more disciplined as he gains more experience.

Regardless, 30-homer potential at the keystone position is almost unheard of and makes Gyorko pretty valuable. FanGraphs estimates he was worth 2.5 fWAR last year in approximately three-quarters of a season (125 games), so it's certainly possible that he'll be a 3-4 win player if he manages to play a whole season. Even if he holds steady at around two wins per season, that's still more than enough to justify his $6 million AAV. Gyorko will provide great value and offense for the Padres, an organization that craves both.

Perhaps more importantly, Gyorko also acts as an insurance policy for Chase Headley, who's in his walk year and may leave as a free agent following this season. Gyorko manned the hot corner in the minors and would have no problem shifting over to third should Headley leave (I have a feeling he will).

In the meantime, Gyorko will continue to provide big-time pop from a premium position, and that's plenty valuable enough.

Cleveland Keeps Kipnis

Cleveland locked up its second baseman at a very reasonable price

The Cleveland Indians announced today that they extended second baseman Jason Kipnis for the next six years (including this one) at a cost of "only" $52.5 million. The extension--nearly identical to the one Matt Carpenter signed with the Cardinals last month--also includes a team option for 2020, when Kipnis will be 33.

For the Indians, that's a terrific deal. Kipnis, who turned 27 on Thursday, ranked as one of the league's ten best position players last year and was rewarded with his first All-Star nod and an 11th place MVP finish. Among American League second basemen, only Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia were more valuable per bWAR, and both of them just netted long-term nine figure deals. By comparison, Kipnis is a veritable bargain.

Kipnis doesn't excel at one thing, but like Pedroia and Ben Zobrist he does almost everything well, which has made one of the game's five best second basemen since the start of the 2012 season. He hits for power, gets on base, steals bags, and scores/drives in runs. His defense isn't great, but it's not terrible either. He can hold his own in the field, and while that's not going to win him any Gold Gloves, it also means he's not a liability like Dan Uggla.

Bottom line: you can never go wrong by signing an in-his-prime second baseman for about $8.5 million per year.

Trout's Team-Friendly Extension

Trout scored a massive payday that will pay him like the superstar he is (CBS)

Five months after inspiring heated MVP debate and discussion, Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout are in the news again, this time for the record-breaking contract extensions they signed on the same day.

Cabrera, of course, just signed an eight-year, $248 million deal to follow the two years and $48 million still remaining on his current contract. All told, the $292 million (not including the additional $60 million he could earn in vesting options) lump sum is the most ever committed to one player.

Coming on the heels of that, Trout's six-year, $144.5 million extension not only pales in comparison, but also looks like a veritable bargain. Whereas Cabrera's instantly regrettable contract is a perfect example of the kind of deal teams should never, ever make under any circumstance, Trout's extension is the polar opposite. If a team is going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on a baseball player, it should at least get the player's prime years in return instead of his entire decline phase. The deals made with Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano, and Josh Hamilton are all albatrosses because they drastically overpay said players for the back end of their careers. These megadeals are much more likely to work out when given to the Mike Trouts and Bryce Harpers of the world, young and supremely talented all-around players still years away from reaching their peaks.

Nobody is more deserving of such a deal than Trout, the best young player in baseball history. Since he already signed for a million dollars this year, his new extension kicks in next year and runs through 2020, when he'll be 29--still in his prime and young enough to command a ten year deal of his own that will likely be the largest sports contract ever seen. For now, Trout will have to settle for the most money ever given to a player with just two years of service time.

And it's still not enough--not even close. FanGraphs valued Trout's performance at almost $100 million in the last two seasons alone (when he made about $1 million in player salaries), which means he could be half the player he was in 2012 and 2013 and still be worth every cent. And if he gets better, as most players in their early 20s tend to do, or just keeps playing like the modern-day Willie Mays, then his contract will look even better.

So while I'm sure the Angels regret their most recent nine-figure commitments (to Pujols and Hamilton), they won't regret this one. Trout will be worth the money and then some.

Criticizing Cabrera's Contract

Cabrera just became the most expensive player in baseball history

For over 13 years Alex Rodriguez held the title of highest paid player in baseball. Now, for the first time since the year 2000, someone has surpassed him.

Not surprisingly it is Miguel Cabrera, the best hitter in baseball.

With Detroit unable to reach an agreement with last year's AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer earlier this week, the Tigers turned around and inked Cabrera to a new ten-year deal that will pay him $292 million--$17 million more than Rodriguez was guaranteed when he signed his megadeal with the Yankees six years ago. The deal also includes vesting options for the two years after the contract expires, options that would pay him an additional $30 million per season and hike the contract's total value up to $352 million (!).

A quick aside: the Tigers better pray that Cabrera retires or gets traded before those vesting options kick in, as they cover Cabrera's age 41 and 42 seasons. If he lasts into his early 40s he'll probably be pursuing some major milestones such as Barry Bonds's home run record or Hank Aaron's RBI record, but there's just no way he'd have enough on-field value to justify earning $30 million per year (even after accounting for inflation and rising salaries). Owing $30 million per year to a former star on the wrong side of 40 is the kind of dumb decision that cripples a budget and ties a team's hands, especially if that team isn't the Yankees or Dodgers.

As for the contract itself, well, I think Detroit was incredibly dumb to lock him up when he was still two years away from free agency. Just as the Red Sox should have held off on extending David Ortiz, the Tigers could and should have waited until next year to begin serious contract discussion talks. They were fools to make this move now, especially with Cabrera coming off back-to-back MVP seasons that maxed out his earnings potential. Had they just waited another year or two, they probably could have bought out the rest of Cabrera's career for significantly less.

The Tigers are betting that Cabrera can sustain his current level of play for at least a few more years and remain an effective hitter throughout his 30s. But they have to be prepared for the possibility that his days as a superstar are already behind him or are about to come to an end. A lot can happen in two years, especially during a player's early 30s when he typically begins to show signs of decline. Sure, Cabrera looks great and healthy now, just a few weeks shy of his 31st birthday, but in the past we've seen many start to go downhill around that age as their skills diminish and they have trouble staying healthy. Alex Rodriguez was otherworldly at 31, but his OPS has gone down every season since. Albert Pujols, the player with whom Cabrera is most frequently compared, saw his OPS drop more than 100 points between his age 30 and 31 season and hasn't been an elite hitter since. Frank Thomas, another great comp for Cabrera, was a beast up through age 32, then struggled to stay healthy and consistent after that.

It's discouraging, then, that Cabrera struggled with injuries and slumped during the second half last year. His descent appears imminent.

In a lot of ways this deal reminds me of the ill-fated contract extension Philadelphia gave Ryan Howard prior to the 2010 season. The Phillies gave him a five-year, $125 million deal that didn't kick in until 2012. Howard was a monster at the time, having totaled no less than 45 home runs and 136 RBI in each of the previous four seasons, but his performance dropped off dramatically during the two intervening years, and by the time his contract kicked in it was already regarded as an albatross. Howard has only gotten worse as age, injuries, and an ability to hit southpaws have made him a very expensive shell of his former self.

Philadelphia's blunder has since become a cautionary tale: don't give a contract extension to a slugging baseman in his 30s, because chances are you're going to regret it. I thought the Tigers had learned a similar lesson from their failed Prince Fielder experiment. Apparently not.

Now Cabrera is a much, much better hitter than either of them, but the same logic still applies. Like Howard and Fielder, Cabrera is a big, slow, first base/DH type with the kind of body that typically doesn't age well and is ripe for regression. All of his value is tied up in his bat, so he won't be able to help Detroit with his legs or glove. If the Tigers are smart (which, based on their head-scratching moves this offseason, they don't appear to be) they'll turn him into a full-time designated hitter as soon as they part ways with Victor Martinez, who's contract is up at the end of the season, and hope Cabrera ages as well as Ortiz and Edgar Martinez.

Because if he doesn't, the Tigers are going to get burned.

Sox Should've Waited to Extend Ortiz

Ortiz is a happy camper, but now he needs to produce (ESPN)

A few short months after carrying the Red Sox to their third World Series championship in the last ten years (and he literally carried them), David Ortiz had already grown unhappy. As usual, he was displeased with his contract, so much so that he threatened to leave Boston if he didn't get what he wanted.

It was an empty threat, of course, but the Red Sox responded to their frustrated slugger by giving him what he got what he wanted: another year tacked onto his contract, which was set to expire at the end of this season. The extension will net him an additional $16 million in 2015, Ortiz's age-39 season.

I guess that means Ortiz can shut up about his contract status and let his bat do the talking, at least until next winter.

Last month I wrote in my column for The Tufts Daily that the Red Sox should hold off on re-signing Ortiz, and I still stand by that argument. Extending a 38 year-old is incredibly risky, especially when all of said 38 year-old's value is tied up in his bat. Yes, Ortiz has been one of the best hitters in baseball over the past three years, but he's going to stop hitting at some point, probably sooner rather than later. The Red Sox shouldn't have been in any rush to re-sign their aging star, and I don't see why they didn't hold off to confirm that he can still mash big league pitching before committing another year and millions of dollars to him.

What Boston should have done was wait until the All-Star Break and, if Ortiz remained healthy and productive, hand him his advance for the 2015 season. That way they would have been able to make a fair assessment about the state of his skills and health without letting him reach free agency and possibly a) command more money or b) go someplace else.

Ortiz is a man who equates dollars with respect, but the Red Sox have paid him more than $110 million in player salaries throughout his time in Boston (with another $30 million on the way): isn't that enough? And, don't forget, they gave him a chance in 2003 after the Twins released him. The Red Sox don't owe him a thing. They were already paying him to hit baseballs this year, so if anything it's Ortiz who should be worried about holding up his end of the bargain.

I understand the justification for this deal extends beyond the baseball field. If there's anyone who deserves a year of contract security, it's Ortiz. But sentimental reasons aside, this deal just doesn't make a whole lot of baseball sense. Thankfully Boston's payroll is large enough that it can absorb $16 million in deadweight if Papi turns into a pumpkin.

Of course, if Ortiz has another great year and the Red Sox make the playoffs I'll feel differently about this move a year from now. But right now, I'm not a fan.

Reviewing Carpenter's Contract Extension

The Cardinals locked up Carpenter (StL Sports Page)

The St. Louis Cardinals rewarded third baseman Matt Carpenter for his tremendous 2013 season with a backloaded six-year, $52 million extension that includes an 18.5 million dollar option for 2020, Carpenter's age 34 season.

Carpenter's contract comes off the heels of an MVP-caliber season in which he hit .318/.392/.481 and led the majors with 126 runs, 199 hits and 55 doubles, all while playing second base and batting leadoff for the NL Champion Cardinals. He was an All-Star for the first time, won his first Silver Slugger award and finished fourth in the MVP race behind Andrew McCutchen, Paul Goldschmidt and teammate Yadier Molina.

It goes without saying that if he can be anything close to the seven win player he was a year ago, St. Louis is going to get a massive bargain, especially in the short-run. Like Mike Trout, Carpenter debuted in 2011, made the league minimum in both 2012 and 2013, and will make just $1 million in 2014. Carpenter's salary escalates every year after that, but he'll still get only $3.5 million in 2015, 6.25 million in 2016 and $9.75 million in 2017. He won't make eight figures until 2018, by which point he'll be 32.

And for those under the impression that Carpenter's breakout was the mere byproduct of an age 27 fluke season, remember that his .294/.365/.463 line in 2012 wasn't far off last year's rate stats, not to mention 26 percent better than average when adjusted for league and park. It's also worth noting that from 2012 to 2013 his walk rate remained exactly the same, his BABiP rose just seven points and his Iso actually decreased by six points.

His main improvement was cutting his strikeout rate by nearly one-third, which explains the uptick in his contact rate and batting average. He scratched out a few infield hits and smashed more line drives, which means he'll probably bat closer to .300 than .320, but there's nothing else in his batted ball or plate discipline data that suggests big-time regression is on the horizon (even though ZiPS is projecting him to bat .272/.351.,413 next year, which feels way too pessimistic).

So even if Carpenter never again reaches the lofty heights of his stellar 2013, he still figures to be pretty good. I think his numbers are going to look very similar to those of Dustin Pedroia (whose 2008 MVP campaign is almost indistinguishable from Carpenter's 2013) or Martin Prado. Translation: the Redbirds will get their money's worth.

Gardner Vs. Granderson

He may not have shiny power numbers, but Gardner's still very valuable

Just when you thought the Yankees were done spending for the winter, they go out and drop $52 million on Brett Gardner to lock him up for the four seasons after this one. That's only $8 million less than the crosstown Mets paid to acquire Curtis Granderson, the man Gardner's replacing in center field.

So did the Yankees make the right call in letting Grandy go but keeping Gardner? Despite very different skillsets, they've provided nearly identical value over the past five seasons. Granderson's been worth 18.4 bWAR, and Gardner's been worth 18.1. But since Gardner was cheaper and is two and a half years younger, I think New York was wise to keep him instead of Granderson.

Especially since Gardner projects to provide more value over the life of his contract. Speed tends to age well whereas power does not, and there are (or should be) serious doubts about whether Granderson can bounce back from an injury-plagued 2013. It's possible that Granderson, a strikeout prone slugger with diminishing wheels and defense, may never be the same. He could go the way of Jason Bay.

Gardner's best comp is probably Michael Bourn, who signed a similar four year deal worth $48 million with the Cleveland Indians last year. Neither one hits for high averages or much power, but both speedsters offer elite defense, baserunning and good on-base ability. They also strike out a lot for guys with no pop:

Bourn '10-'13: 584 G, 106 2B, 32 3B, 19 HR, 195 RBI, 222 BB, 178 SB, ..275/.339/.375 (97 OPS+) 17.3 bWAR
Gardner '09-'13: 578 G, 80 2B, 31 3B, 23 HR, 161 RBI, 222 BB, 148 SB .270/.356/.387 (100 OPS+) 18.1 bWAR

Both signed their deals prior to their age 30 seasons, too. Bourn struggled in his first year of his new contract, but that could be attributed to the league-change combined with injuries that caused him to miss 32 games. Gardner's had his own injury issues--he played just 16 games in 2012 and ended last season on the Disabled List--which may explain why he stole "only" 24 bases after averaging twice that many in 2010-'11. But he was still worth better than four wins last year and should provide similar value in the coming seasons so long as he stays on the field.

Whatever Gardner does over the next half-decade, one thing's for certain: nobody can say he's under-appreciated anymore.

Simmons Latest Brave to be Rewarded

Simmons was worth almost seven bWAR last year largely because of his defense

At the rate they're going, the Atlanta Braves will have their entire team signed through the end of the decade by Opening Day.

Andrelton Simmons is the latest Braves to be rewarded with a payday, following in the footsteps of Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, Craig Kimbrel, and Julio Teheran. Simmons received a seven-year, $58 million extension that covers all his arbitration seasons and first two free agent seasons. The deal runs through his age 30 season, which means the Braves won't have to pay for much, if any, of his decline phase.

Assuming Simmons stays healthy, Atlanta's going to get tons of value out of this deal. His masterful glovework at shortstop makes him the most valuable defender in the game, so much so that he had one of the best defensive seasons in recorded history last year. And he's no slouch with the bat either, having hit 17 home runs last year and posting an .807 OPS from July 14th onward. Just 24, he figures to get better with age as he enters his prime years.

I like this deal much better than the one Texas gave to Elvis Andrus last year at the same age. Andrus was more established with four full seasons and two All-Star appearances under his belt, but the difference between the two skills-wise isn't enough to justify Andrus getting an extra year and twice as much money.

In fact, I don't think it's much of a stretch to say that Simmons will have the better career. Just last year alone, Simmons hit almost as many home runs as Andrus has hit in his entire career. Simmons also did so while striking out nearly half as often as Andrus does and while working a similar number of walks. Andrus is a better baserunner and plays good defense, but Simmons is so good defensively that he makes up whatever advantages Andrus has and then some.

So while it's hard to imagine Simmons getting such a deal in less enlightened times (he did hit only .248/.296/.396 last year, after all), it stands to reason that Simmons could and should get better. He's going to earn every cent of that money.