Posey's Push for MVP

Posey's big second half should earn him some serious MVP consideration (FP911)

With the National League MVP race wide open, Buster Posey has forced his way into the discussion with his recent hot streak.

The 2012 MVP has been on fire since the day before the All-Star break with an extraordinary .363/.406/.621 batting line, 11 home runs and 37 RBI in that time. He's now up to .310/.361/.494-20-79 on the season, outstanding numbers for a catcher playing half his games in one of baseball's most pitching-friendly venues. One of the Senior Circuit's best hitters on a league and park adjust basis, Posey ranks third in offensive bWAR, fifth in adjusted OPS+ and eighth in adjusted batting runs.

Furthermore, Posey's hot play has helped his Giants keep pace with the Dodgers all summer long. As of this morning San Francisco sat just two games out of first in the NL West. With 20 games remaining on their schedule, the Giants still have plenty of time to pass the Dodgers and steal the division title out from under them. And considering how well San Francisco's played lately, winning 15 of their last 22, it's not hard to imagine them finishing with a fury and blowing by LA during the season's final days.

If that happens and Posey continues to rake, he's going to have a very interesting MVP case. Not only does he lead the team in most key offensive categories (home runs, RBI, all three slash stats), but on most days he also mans the most important non-pitching position on the demand (only Jonathan Lucroy and Miguel Montero have caught more games among NL receivers). It's no wonder, then, that Baseball-Reference rates him as the team's most valuable player by WAR.

So Posey may not have the flashy slugging numbers of a Mike Trout or Giancarlo Stanton, he definitely belongs in the MVP conversation.

Mesoraco's Monster Breakout

Though inconsistent, Mesoraco has enjoyed a tremendous season (RantSports)

The Reds were swept in Baltimore yesterday, falling to the Orioles 9-7 to wrap up an ugly road trip where Cincinnati lost all but one of its six games. It's been an ugly summer for the Reds, who were very much in contention through the All-Star Break but have sputtered since, losing 30 of 45 in the second half as injuries to Joey Votto, Mat Latos and Homer Bailey took their toll.

One positive takeaway from this season, however, is that Cincinnati appears to have developed an All-Star caliber catcher. 26 year-old Devin Mesoraco's been a revelation behind the plate, emerging as one of the game's most dangerous offensive catchers in his fourth big league season. In the wake of yesterday's 4-for-4 performance, he's now batting an eye-popping .286/.365/.542 (153 OPS+) on the year with 21 home runs--most among everyday catchers. His 69 RBI rank third behind Buster Posey and Miguel Montero, both of whom have significant advantages in playing time. In the National League only Giancarlo Stanton has a superior AB/HR ratio. If the Reds weren't so helpless out of the race, he'd make a pretty good MVP candidate.

It's not unusual to see catchers break out later than position players at other positions, but Mesoraco's transformation has been truly stunning. He was a nothing before this year, a career .225 hitter with 16 home runs and -0.5 bWAR to his name. Now he's one of the best hitters in baseball. Out of all this year's biggest breakthroughs (Charlie Blackmon, Corey Dickerson, Josh Harrison, Brock Holt), none of shined brighter than Mesoraco.

The only issue with Mesoraco (besides subpar baserunning, but good luck finding a catcher who runs well) is his incredible streakiness. All year long, it seems, has been alternating hot and cold streaks for the Reds' backstop, who began the year on fire. He was hitting .500/.541/.870 through May 18th, only to post a .521 OPS with 23 strikeouts over his next 21 games. That was followed by a torrid three-week stretch ending on the Fourth of July where he blasted six home runs and OPS'ed 1.287. He leveled off through the rest of July, then hit the skids in August, batting a measly .228/.340/.354 with just two home runs.

September should bring better results for Mesoraco, and by the looks of things yesterdat, it already has.

Cespedes Check-In

Cespedes has played well in his Red Sox debut (NESN)

There's not a whole lot of reasons to watch the Red Sox these days, unless you enjoy watching youngsters (Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts) cut their teeth in the big leagues, veterans playing out the string and Will Middlebrooks trying to salvage his major league career. Boston's an odd mix of old and young going nowhere fast, hopelessly out of contention and toiling in last place in the AL East.

Yes, the Red Sox title defense has gone horribly astray, especially in the past month or so since Ben Cherington dealt away many of the team's key pieces. There hasn't been a lot to cheer for lately, save one of the club's newest additions: hard-hitting outfielder Yoenis Cespedes.

Cespedes has performed as advertised: a tremendous source of righthanded power capable of batting cleanup behind David Ortiz. While the Sox have gone into free-fall mode since his arrival, going 13-18 since August 1st, Cespedes has been wonderful. In his 30 games in a Red Sox uniform Cespedes has hit safely in 24 of them, slashing .288/.306/.475 with a dozen extra base hits and 24 RBI. No Red Sock has more ribbies during that span, confirming Cespedes's status as one of the premier run-producers in the game (his 91 RBI rank fifth in the AL).

The downside is that Cespedes has all but abandoned any sense of plate discipline since coming to Boston, with only three walks in his time here against 26 strikeouts. Over the course of a season such a ratio would incur disastrous results, but thus far it hasn't hindered him. I'm sure the Sox would like to see him be a bit more patient, as his .304 OBP this year and .294 OBP last year fall below the league average, but those figures are certainly playable if Cespedes provides 25 homers and 105 RBI, as he's on pace to do this year.

Besides, Cespedes is one of the few Red Sox playing well at the moment (if it ain't broke...). Maybe his hyper-aggressive approach will prevent him from becoming the elite hitter he was during his rookie year, but at least he's still hitting plenty of homers and driving in truck loads of runs. Perhaps he's nothing more than a flashier Joe Carter, but that's okay. Boston could certainly use a Jim Carter-type these days.

Stanton Slugging Way to MVP

Stanton's superstar-caliber season should result in his first MVP award (RantSports)

Four weeks ago I wrote that given injuries to Troy Tulowitzki and Andrew McCutchen, Yasiel Puig had emerged as the new favorite for National League MVP because of his Mike Trout-esque production. But in light of Puig's recent offensive struggles (.185/.279/.217 with no home runs and four RBI since August 4th) his stock has fallen considerably.

During the same time Giancarlo Stanton's stock has risen substantially. With nine long balls, 27 RBI and a 1.078 OPS over the past four weeks, Stanton enjoyed one of his best stretches of the season during the dog days of August. And after slugging his 35th home run of the season last night, becoming the first player in either league to reach 100 RBI in the process, it's clear that if the season ended today Stanton would deserve to walk away with MVP honors.

He is, according to bWAR, the second-most valuable position player in the National League behind Jason Heyward (much of whose value derives from his defense) and third overall behind Clayton Kershaw and Heyward. FanGraphs rates him as the most valuable batter in the Senior Circuit, just a smidge above Jonathan Lucroy and tops among all major leaguers in WPA.

Of course, by most conventional metrics Stanton is clearly the best hitter in the National League. He ranks first in home runs and RBI, walks and OBP, total bases and SLG, OPS and OPS+, and a host of other categories like extra base hits, runs created, times on base, and adjusted batting runs. He's been incredibly durable, playing in all 137 of the Marlins' games thus far, a force in the middle of their lineup everyday.

But, contrary to what those who voted Miguel Cabrera over Trout the last two years believe, the MVP award should not simply go to the best hitter. It should go to the most valuable player which, in the case of a position player, includes defense and baserunning. Cabrera was clearly a liability in those two facets of the game, but Stanton is not. He plays a decent right field and runs the bases well for a big man, with 10 stolen bases in 11 attempts and three baserunning runs above average this year. He's not a well-rounded superstar like Trout or McCutchen, but he's not a one-dimensional slugger like Cabrera, either.

And to those who say an MVP must come from a winning team (and ignore the fact that one player has no control over how his teammates play or his front office constructs a roster), please take note of how much the Marlins have improved from last year. In 2013 with Stanton missing more than a quarter of the season, Miami lost 100 games and finished last in the NL East. This year, despite losing reigning Rookie of the Year and staff ace Jose Fernandez to Tommy John surgery in May, the Marlins have won almost as many games as they've lost and are third in their division. Few expected Miami to have anything close to a winning record, especially after losing an elite arm so early in the season.

But Stanton, to his credit, has carried the Marlins offense and helped keep the team within shouting distance of the second wild card. He's been integral to one of this season's most unlikely turnarounds, keeping Miami afloat long after it should have slipped beneath the waves. Stanton's made the Marlins relevant again. That might not be as sexy as leading a team to a division title, but after seeing how low they sunk last year it's still pretty darn impressive.

Amazing August 2014

Martinez was at the top of his game during the dog days of August

A quick look around at some of the MLB's best offensive performers in during the month of August.

Chris Carter
Carter's torrid production in July (1.005 OPS with eight homers and 19 RBI) carried over into August, with the Astros' slugger belting 12 home runs, knocking in 29 and slugging .613. His dozen long balls were tops for the month and increased his seasonal output to 33, putting him just two behind big-league leader Nelson Cruz. If Carter can stay hot, look for him to leapfrog Cruz (and Jose Abreu, with whom he is tied) during the season's final month.

Victor Martinez
V-Mart's monster season continued in August with 30 RBI--most in baseball--out of Detroit's cleanup spot (I guess it helps to hit behind Miguel Cabrera). He also banged out 41 hits and walked 19 times en route to slashing .350/.442/.547 for the month. Martinez made this list last year after similar production (44 hits, .386/.449/.491).

Nolan Arenado
Arenado had a big month for the rapidly fading Rockies, rapping out 36 hits and batting a robust .336/.400/.570. The 23 year-old's huge leap at the dish this year has been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise horrendous campaign for Colorado.

Giancarlo Stanton
Stanton's been a beast all year, so it should come as no surprise that he tore it up in August. Stanton supplied his usual big-time power, slamming eight home runs and driving in 25. He also walked 25 times, giving him a strong .289/.431/.567 batting line for the month. Stanton enters September atop the National League leaderboards in home runs, RBI, walks, slugging, OPS, and total bases, will be a slam-dunk MVP candidate if he can help the Marlins overcome their current 6.5 game deficit for the second wild card, or at least come close. I wouldn't expect him to get much to hit, though.

Danny Santana
Santana shined for the moribound Minnesota Twins with 41 hits, 23 runs and a .313/.357/.481 August line. Not bad for a 23 year-old shortstop.

Adrian Gonzalez
Gonzo's bounced back from a rough June with a fine July and an even better August, which he capped with a four-hit day in San Diego yesterday. The aging first baseman batted .337/.377/537--outstanding numbers for someone who calls Dodger Stadium home--while also driving in 20 runs. It's easy to forget about Gonzalez on the star-studded Dodgers, but he's been a rock in the middle of their lineup all season long.

Justin Upton
The Braves' cleanup hitter went bananas in August, putting together a 13-game hitting streak at one point and flashing the pop that made him a serious MVP candidate in 2011. B.J. Upton's little bro bashed seven home runs and knocked in 28 while batting a healthy .291/.383/.563. He's already established a career-high with 91 RBI and is poised to crack 100 for the first time in his career.

Josh Harrison
Harrison had a huge month in August, batting .347/.374/.602 with 41 hits (19 of the extra base variety) and 21 runs to shoot past Justin Morneau for first place in the NL batting race. Though he hit safely in 23 of 28 games last month I expect him to cool off in September and will be shocked if he finishes the season with a .300 average.

Jose Abreu
The Cuban rookie sensation continued to dominate the majors in August, raking big league pitching at a .376/.466/.475 clip with 38 base knocks and ending the month on a 12-game hitting streak. With only two home runs, however, Abreu all but guaranteed that he will fall short of Mark McGwire's single season rookie record of 49. As it stands Abreu needs 16 to tie.

Buster Posey
Posey put up numbers reminiscent of his 2012 MVP season with a .336/.372/.579 August line to go along with six home runs and 17 RBI. Red-hot since the All-Star Break, Posey's in the midst of a monster second half.

Jacoby Ellsbury
New York's shiny new (not to mention expensive) center fielder helped the Yankees stay in the hunt by hitting .324/.366/.539 and going a perfect 9-for-9 in stolen base attempts. With his combination of power and speed, Ellsbury resembled the 2011 version of his former self, at least for awhile.

Alex Gordon
Gordon began gaining traction as a viable MVP candidate (at least in the sabermetric community) in August as he and the Royals both got hot. Kansas City leapt into first place largely thanks to Gordon, who cranked nine home runs and batted .292/.356/.585. I'm not completely sold on Gordon as a legit MVP, so look for more to come from me on that front.