Nationals Sign Scherzer

Did the Nationals really need another top-flight starting pitcher? (DodgersNation)

The Washington Nationals won 96 games and the NL East last year, largely thanks to a talented pitching staff that topped the majors in ERA, FIP, and fWAR. Their loaded rotation, comprised of Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, and Tanner Roark, were primarily responsible for that, delivering 936 innings of 2.92 ERA-ball and missing just 13 starts between them. With all of them healthy, in their 20s (save Fister), and under contract for 2015, the Nationals did not need pitching help. They were more than set.

Max Scherzer, the 2013 AL Cy Young winner and a free agent*, was a $200 million luxury Washington didn't need. And yet, Scherzer is now a member of the Washington Nationals. Unless the rumors of a possible Strasburg or Zimmermann trade come to fruition, he'll bump Tanner Roark, a borderline Cy Young candidate who compiled a 2.85 ERA in just under 200 innings last year, to the bullpen.

Look out, National League.

*Scherzer, who boldly rejected Detroit's six-year, $144 million contract extension offer prior to the 2014 season, looks like a genius, by the way. He bet on himself, had another big season, and reaped the rewards. 

Just when you thought the Nats couldn't get any more stacked, they go out and ink the prize possession of this winter's free agent pool. In an era where most teams are settling for mediocrity, hoping for 85+ wins and a shot at the second wild card, Washington is one of the few franchises trying to separate themselves from the pack. They're all in.

Thing is, the Nationals were already head and shoulders above the rest of the NL East. Last year, they were the only team with a winning record in their division, which they won by an astounding 17 games. Even with the Marlins and Mets projected to be better this year, Washington was still heavily favored to end up in first place again. The aging Phillies are only getting worse and the re-shuffling Braves will probably be about the same, if not worse. There was no serious challenger threatening Washington's ironclad grip on the NL East in 2015.

Now, the division title that was all but guaranteed to go to Washington is only more of a sure thing. They now claim the best 1-2 top of the rotation punch outside of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, backed by a former 20-game winner in Gonzalez and a pair of top-notch arms in Zimmermann and Fister. All have received Cy Young consideration at least once in the last three years, and nobody's going to be older than 31 this year. Roark, should he stick around, provides excellent insurance if an injury crops up. Throw in a lights-out bullpen and a formidable starting nine and you have a team that could easily win 100 games in 2015, no small feat given the improved parity throughout the sport.

Did the Washington Nationals need Max Scherzer? Probably not*. But are they a better team with him on board? Absolutely. They say you can never have enough pitching, but it appears the Nats have more than enough to take them all the way. I know it's only January, but I think the Nationals just punched their ticket to the World Series.

*Though I can see why Washington wanted Scherzer. Fister's on the wrong side of 30, Gonzalez got hurt in an uneven 2014, Strasburg and Zimmermann are recovered Tommy John patients, and Roark has a mere 36 big league starts under his belt. Pitchers are inherently risky, and everyone in the Nationals rotation had at least one question mark. There's no such thing as a sure thing in baseball, especially when it comes to pitching. Scherzer's also one of the five best pitchers in baseball, so there's that.

Birds, Nats Clinch

Washington won its second division title in three years (Vavel)

Last night was a great night to be a baseball fan from the D.C. metro area. In Atlanta the Nationals blanked the Braves 3-0 to clinch the NL East for the second time in three years. In Baltimore the Orioles won their first division title since 1997, bludgeoning the Blue Jays 8-2 in front of a celebratory home crowd of 35,000-plus.

But while both of the nation's capital's baseball teams ended up in the same place--at the top of their division and postseason-bound--how they got there turns out to be two very different yet similar stories

It's impossible to talk about this season without first mentioning 2012, when both teams shed their also-ran status by making the playoffs. Washington was the best team in baseball that year, winners of 98 games and clear favorites to win the National League. The former Montreal Expos had been more or less irrelevant since moving to Washington after the 2004 season, never winning more than 81 games and finishing last in their division five times, but thanks to an influx of young talent and a killer pitching staff that had changed practically overnight. For the first time since 1933, there was playoff baseball in our nation's capitol.

That same year, the Baltimore Orioles also came out of nowhere to make the playoffs, winning 93 games and the AL Wild Card. The once-proud franchise had endured 15 straight losing seasons prior to its magical turnaround, going from a 69-93 last-place finish in 2011 to two games out of first the following year.

The Nationals were a veritable juggernaut. The Orioles were a Cinderella story, a good team that overachieved due to extraordinary luck in one-run games. And yet they both met the same fate: eliminated from the Division Series in five games, with Baltimore falling to their mighty division rivals from New York and Washington losing to the defending World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals.

Still, 2012 was a banner year for the Nats, who were poised to be the crown jewel of the Senior Circuit for the foreseeable future. That season marked not just the beginning of a new era in Washington baseball, but also appeared to signal a changing of the guard in the NL East, a transition away from the Braves dynasty and Phillies mini-dynasty. With their tantalizing core of young position players (Bryce Harper, Ian Desmond, Wilson Ramos) and plentiful pitching (Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez), Washington was armed and ready be kings of NL East for years to come.

For the first time since Clinton's presidency, the O's are AL East champs (Baltimore Sun)

The Orioles, on the other hand, were treated as a fluke. There was no such talk of a repeat performance in 2013, much less the next Orioles dynasty. They had an outstanding core of in-their-prime position players (Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis, J.J. Hardy), but not nearly enough arms to match their competitors in the AL East. Everyone knew that with natural regression they'd likely be a .500-ish team in 2013, and that's basically what happened. They won 85 games and fell back to the pack, finishing tied-for-third with the Yankees behind pitching-rich Boston and Tampa Bay. Nobody saw Baltimore as underachievers that year, but rather a club that played to its true talent level.

Not so with the Nationals, the preseason favorites to win the World Series. Washington was shockingly irrelevant last summer, 16 games out of first and four below .500 on the morning of August 20th. A late surge pushed them 10 games over .500 but still left them 10 back of the Braves and out of the playoffs. Almost the exact same results as the Orioles, one might notice, but drastically different expectations led to the Nationals' season being viewed as a massive disappointment, if not an outright failure.

Both responded with significant roster upgrades over the winter--Baltimore inked Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez while Washington stole Doug Fister from Detroit--and have come back strong. The Nationals reclaimed their status as the top dog in their division and, as of this writing, the National League. Not that they had much competition--Atlanta was the only other rival with legitimate postseason hopes and now sits below .500--but first place wasn't guaranteed until mid-August, when Washington won 10 in a row and 12 out of 13 to wrap up the division. They've continued to roll since, breaking away from the pack and building their lead up to its high-water mark of 12.5 games.

Baltimore, on the other hand, wasn't given a snowball's chance in hell to win the AL East before the season began. The Orioles were widely viewed as one of the two weakest teams in the division, with the other being the Blue Jays. Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay were expected to duke it out for the top spot. Nobody gave Baltimore a second thought.

So when the Orioles were in first place for a good while in May, nobody thought it would last. And while they were only a few games over .500 for most of June, that was enough to stay near the top of the division. In early July they made their move, winning 10 of 13 leading up to the All-Star break to finish the first half 10 games above .500 and with a four game lead in the AL East. They've been in first place every day since, putting away the division with a torrid second half. Since the last day of June they've gone 49-21. That's a .700 winning percentage, folks, spanning almost half a season.

It's fitting that both teams ran away with their divisions around the same time, and that they'll likely finish the season with similar records. Because for the second time in three years, both teams will be playing in October, vying for the chance to compete in the first-ever all-DC area Fall Classic (a Beltway Series, I guess?). While I'd rather see a Freeway Series between the more exciting Dodgers and Angels (Yasiel Puig, Clayton Kershaw, and Mike Trout on the game's grandest stage? Yes please), that would be a pretty good series in its own right.

Stanton Slugging Way to MVP

Stanton's superstar-caliber season should result in his first MVP award (RantSports)

Four weeks ago I wrote that given injuries to Troy Tulowitzki and Andrew McCutchen, Yasiel Puig had emerged as the new favorite for National League MVP because of his Mike Trout-esque production. But in light of Puig's recent offensive struggles (.185/.279/.217 with no home runs and four RBI since August 4th) his stock has fallen considerably.

During the same time Giancarlo Stanton's stock has risen substantially. With nine long balls, 27 RBI and a 1.078 OPS over the past four weeks, Stanton enjoyed one of his best stretches of the season during the dog days of August. And after slugging his 35th home run of the season last night, becoming the first player in either league to reach 100 RBI in the process, it's clear that if the season ended today Stanton would deserve to walk away with MVP honors.

He is, according to bWAR, the second-most valuable position player in the National League behind Jason Heyward (much of whose value derives from his defense) and third overall behind Clayton Kershaw and Heyward. FanGraphs rates him as the most valuable batter in the Senior Circuit, just a smidge above Jonathan Lucroy and tops among all major leaguers in WPA.

Of course, by most conventional metrics Stanton is clearly the best hitter in the National League. He ranks first in home runs and RBI, walks and OBP, total bases and SLG, OPS and OPS+, and a host of other categories like extra base hits, runs created, times on base, and adjusted batting runs. He's been incredibly durable, playing in all 137 of the Marlins' games thus far, a force in the middle of their lineup everyday.

But, contrary to what those who voted Miguel Cabrera over Trout the last two years believe, the MVP award should not simply go to the best hitter. It should go to the most valuable player which, in the case of a position player, includes defense and baserunning. Cabrera was clearly a liability in those two facets of the game, but Stanton is not. He plays a decent right field and runs the bases well for a big man, with 10 stolen bases in 11 attempts and three baserunning runs above average this year. He's not a well-rounded superstar like Trout or McCutchen, but he's not a one-dimensional slugger like Cabrera, either.

And to those who say an MVP must come from a winning team (and ignore the fact that one player has no control over how his teammates play or his front office constructs a roster), please take note of how much the Marlins have improved from last year. In 2013 with Stanton missing more than a quarter of the season, Miami lost 100 games and finished last in the NL East. This year, despite losing reigning Rookie of the Year and staff ace Jose Fernandez to Tommy John surgery in May, the Marlins have won almost as many games as they've lost and are third in their division. Few expected Miami to have anything close to a winning record, especially after losing an elite arm so early in the season.

But Stanton, to his credit, has carried the Marlins offense and helped keep the team within shouting distance of the second wild card. He's been integral to one of this season's most unlikely turnarounds, keeping Miami afloat long after it should have slipped beneath the waves. Stanton's made the Marlins relevant again. That might not be as sexy as leading a team to a division title, but after seeing how low they sunk last year it's still pretty darn impressive.

Fear the Phillies?

Rollins, Utley and Howard are enjoying their best seasons in years (RantSports)

The Phillies are in last place entering play today--exactly where most people thought they'd be this year after an offseason full of puzzling moves. But they're only four games below .500, and the same number out of first place in the NL East. They're still very much in contention, positioned so that one good week could vault them to the top of the standings.

The Phillies in first place after Memorial Day? Not as far-fetched as you might think.

One reason why the Phils are still in it is that their once famous infield core of Chase Utley and former MVPs Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard, are all having their best seasons in years. They've turned back the clock, so to speak; not quite to their heyday of 2006-2009, but closer than anyone had a reason to expect.

Let's start with Utley, who's having a downright fantastic season, easily his best in five years. He's leading the major league in doubles (with 22), batting well over .300 and posting the best OPS+ of his career. Healthier than he's been in years, the five-time All-Star is playing like it. He's been the team's most valuable position player thus far and the tenth most valuable position player in the Senior Circuit per bWAR. Some decline should be expected from the 35 year-old keystone, injury-related or otherwise, but the fact remains that he's still a very good player having a great season, which Carlos Beltran, Torii Hunter, and Victor Martinez have shown isn't out of the ordinary (another MVP-caliber season sure would go a long way towards boosting his Hall of Fame credentials, too).

J-Roll, the oldest of the bunch at 35-and-a-half,  is having, on an adjusted OPS basis, his best year with the bat since 2007, when he edged out Matt Holliday for NL MVP honors. Rollins has already equaled last season's home run total (6) and has shown a career-best walk rate of 13.7 percent, which explains his career-high .358 OBP. After years of putting up middling on-base percentages, Rollins finally seems to understand the importance of reaching base when batting near the top of the lineup. As long as he maintains his newfound plate discipline, his .250-ish batting average (which is essentially league average, now) will be tolerable for a table-setter.

And then there's Howard, now a Mark Reynolds/Adam Dunn-type all-or-nothing slugger. The team leader in long balls and RBI is on pace for around 30 and 110, figures he hasn't reached since 2011. But those shiny power numbers come at a cost: Howard is leading the major leagues in strikeouts, batting a meager .227, and his on-base percentage is a borderline unacceptable .303. Obviously those numbers are not ideal, but consider that last year only three players--Chris Davis, Miguel Cabrera and Paul Goldschmidt--topped both 30 long balls and 110 ribbies. The 34 year-old first baseman is very limited at this stage of his career, but he can still hit the ball out of the park and drive in runs.

Obviously the Phillies need all three to keep doing what they're doing if they hope to stay afloat in the crowded NL East. Their offense is already below average compared to the rest of the National League, so any slippage on their part would likely doom Philadelphia's lineup. The Phils rely on them and Marlon Byrd for the bulk of their offensive production, and for the first third of the season all three have exceeded expectations.

They've turned around their careers, at least for the time being. Now let's see if they can turn around the Phillies.

2014 NL East Preview

Strasburg and the Nats are poised to run away with the division

1st Place Washington Nationals
2013 Record: 86-76
2013 Pythagorean: 84-78
2014 Projected: 96-66
The Nats are the clear frontrunners in the NL East this year. Their rotation, comprised of Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, and Doug Fister, is the best in baseball. Washington's lineup is equally formidable, with Wilson Ramos behind the plate, Adam LaRoche at first, Anthony Rendon and Ian Desmond up the middle, Ryan Zimmerman manning the hot corner, and an outfield of Bryce Harper, Denard Span and Jayson Werth. Love this team.

2nd Place Atlanta Braves
2013 Record: 96-66
2013 Pythagorean: 98-64
2014 Projected: 90-72
Even with several injuries to their starting rotation, the Braves still have enough pitching and talent to gut out 90 wins in a weak division. The lineup is going to be really good. Andrelton Simmons, Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward all have the potential to get better, and I don't think Dan Uggla and B.J. Upton are going to be as bad as they were last season. Evan Gattis will have to prove his strong rookie season was legit, though. And don't forget Justin Upton, possibly the most talented position player on the team. Even without Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, and Tim Hudson, the rotation of Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, and Ervin Santana should be solid. The Braves boasted baseball's best bullpen and top closer (Craig Kimbrel) last year, and that unit will need to step up in 2014 to help the rotation along until it gets healthier.

3rd Place Philadelphia Phillies
2013 Record: 73-89
2013 Pythagorean: 66-96
2014 Projected: 75-87
The once-proud Phillies have deteriorated into an aging, bloated team that won't be much better than .500 if everything goes their way. Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and A.J. Burnett form a strong top of the rotation, so starting pitching isn't the problem (when Hamels returns from the DL). The lineup, however, is way too old. Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Marlon Byrd,  and Carlos Ruiz are all past their primes, and Ben Revere simply isn't very good. The only player in that lineup who's young and can hit worth a damn is Domonic Brown. Philadelphia's young talent is on the way but won't be ready to contribute much in 2014 when the aging stars invariably get hurt. The bullpen isn't make or break, especially with Jonathan Papelbon losing velocity and effectiveness as he moves deeper into his 30s. Put it all together and it's going to be another losing season for the Phils.

4th Place New York Mets
2013 Record: 74-88
2013 Pythagorean: 74-88
2014 Projected: 72-90
Losing Matt Harvey for the year is a crippling blow to the rotation, though thankfully it looks as though Zack Wheeler is ready to step up in his absence. I say this is the year Bartolo Colon finally falls apart. Dillon Gee and Jonathan Niese are just merely okay. The lineup looks stronger with Curtis Granderson and Chris Young providing upgrades in the outfield, but it remains to be seen how their power will play in Citi Field. Ike Davis could really use a bounce back, but my money's on catcher Travis d'Arnaud taking a big step forward. Eric Young Jr. and Ruben Tejada provide speed, but not much else. Like Philly, New York could get to .500 if things go their way but will probably settle in the 70-75 win range.

5th Place Miami Marlins
2013 Record: 62-100
2013 Pythagorean: 64-98
2014 Projected: 69-93
Miami got better over the offseason, bringing in Jarrod Saltalamacchia  and Garrett Jones to stretch out the lineup behind Giancarlo Stanton. Christian Yelich also seems poised for a breakout, but I wouldn't bank on much from Rafael Furcal or Casey McGehee. Overall the offense still projects to be a weak one, but not as bad as last year's. Jose Fernandez fronts an intriguing but also probably not very good pitching staff, unless Jacob Turner and Henderson Alvarez break out. The Marlins won't be the laughingstocks they were last year, but a winning season is still out of the question.

Braves Outfield Disappoints

Dan Uggla greets Heyward after a long home run

Hopes were high for Jason Heyward and the Atlanta Braves coming into the 2013 season. After winning 94 games last year while ushering Chipper Jones into retirement, the Braves went out and signed B.J. Upton to the largest free agent contract in franchise history. Two months later, they fleeced the Arizona Diamondbacks for Justin Upton, scoring a 25 year-old superstar-in-the-making who won't become a free agent until after the 2015 season.

Adding the Upton brothers to its incumbent right fielder gave Atlanta one of baseball's best outfields. All three are young, athletic ballplayers projected for greatness long before they ever set foot on a big league diamond. Blessed with power and speed, the trio of former first round draft picks are three of the game's brightest talents.

So why aren't they playing like it?

More than two months into the season, the outfield that was supposed to lead Atlanta back to the postseason has gone bust. elder Upton's been a train wreck at the plate, striking out in one-third of his plate appearances and showing no semblance of the power stroke that helped him blast 28 home runs last year. Justin carried the Braves with his monster April  but hasn't done much lately, batting just .222/.343/.326 since April 28th.

And then there's Heyward, who's slow start to the season was exacerbated by an emergency appendectomy that forced him onto the Disabled List in late April and caused him to miss 23 games (the same operation derailed Adam Dunn early in 2011, and we all know how that turned out). Since returning to action on May 17th, it's taken Heyward a couple weeks to get his timing back and regain his footing at the plate.

But with both Uptons still dragging their feet in June, Heyward has shown signs of life at the plate. After going 2-for-5 with a double last night, Heyward now has hits in each of his last 10 games--including seven multi-hit efforts--to push his batting line up to .215/.324/.362.  He's been squaring up the ball better and making hard contact more consistently. These improvements are reflected in his improved strikeout rate, which he's trimmed from 18.8 percent before June 2nd to 12.8 percent since.

Credit Fredi Gonzalez for sticking with his slumping 23 year-old, batting him second even as his batting average languished below the Mendoza line into early June. Many managers would have dropped Heyward down in the lineup or benched him in an effort to help get him going, but such moves can end up doing more harm then good. They reflect a lack of faith on the manager's part and can end up damaging the ballplayer's already diminished confidence. Gonzalez's long leash has served him (and Heyward) well.

Even after getting swept by the San Diego Padres, Atlanta still leads the NL East by six games. The Braves are a first place team in spite of their vaunted outfield, not because of them. The rotation's remained healthy and everybody's pitching well. Evan Gattis and Chris Johnson are picking up the slack on offense. The defense is as good as expected.

Still, one can only imagine how strong the Braves will be once Heyward and the Uptons start doing what they're capable of.

What's Wrong With Washington?

Offense has been hard to come by for the Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals, winners of 98 games last year, just can't seem to get it going here in 2013. The reigning NL East champions came roaring out of the gate with a 7-2 start, seemingly poised to run away with the division once again. But they've sputtered since then, slipping to third place in the standings and entering play today below .500 (29-30) with a minus-34 run differential.

On paper, the Nationals appear to have it all; plenty of starting pitching, a killer bullpen, great defense, and a lineup loaded with power and speed. Many preseason pundits predicted them to win the World Series. So what's gone wrong?

In a word: hitting, as in the lack thereof. Washington's spring struggles can be attributed to the team's offensive woes. After fielding one of the better offensive units in the National League last year, the Nats' lineup has been one of the league's worst this year. Only the moribound Miami Marlins are scoring fewer runs per game and getting on base less often.

Everyone's to blame here. Catcher Kurt Suzuki has been a black hole, but he had to play with Wilson Ramos on the mend. Adam LaRoche and Ryan Zimmerman got off to a painfully slow starts. Danny Espinosa was utterly helpless before (mercifully) landing on the Disabled List with a fractured right wrist. Ian Desmond has hit for power but is making too many outs. Denard Span has disappointed. So has Jayson Werth, who's gone bust since inking his undeserved seven-year, $126 million contract prior to the 2011 season.

The bench hasn't been much help either. Steve Lambardozzi, Tyler Moore, Roger Bernadina, Chad Tracy, and anyone else Davey Johnson throws in there hasn't hit a lick. With Washington desperately needing a spark from its reserves, the role players have come up empty.

In fact, the only National who's been consistently great at the plate is wunderkind Bryce Harper. The 20 year-old has put up MVP-type numbers when healthy, but got dinged up early on and is currently on the DL with a knee injury. If you think Washington was offensively challenged with Harper, just wait and see how bad things get without him. If you think things can't possibly get any worse, think again.

However, the Nats should be able to stay afloat (or at least tread water) because their starting rotation has been almost as good as advertised. Jordan Zimmermann, in his age 27 season, has emerged as an early Cy Young candidate. He's been even better than Stephen Strasburg, who was having an excellent season in his own right before going down with a lat strain. Gio Gonzalez hasn't been able to replicate his dominance from one year ago, but he's still a great number three behind Zimmermann and Strasburg. Before joining Strasburg on the DL, Ross Detwiler managed to keep runs off the board despite some ugly peripheral numbers.

The lone disappointment has been Dan Haren, who Washington hoped would bounce back after enduring the worst full season of his career in 2012. Instead, he's been even worse; he leads the majors in home runs allowed and his ERA ballooned to 5.45 after the New York Mets battered him last night. I don't think he's going to pitch this poorly all season, but it's clear that he's no longer the elite pitcher he once was.

He's not the only Nationals hurler who's struggling though. Their bullpen was lights-out last year but has seen its ERA rise by nearly a full run this year, from 3.23 to 4.13. New closer Rafael Soriano has been everything he was for the Yankees last season, but Washington's other relievers (specifically Drew Storen, Ryan Mattheus and Henry Rodriguez) haven't been quite as sharp. They'll be put to the test more with Strasburg and Detwiler on the DL, so it's critical that the relief corps pitches up to its potential.

There's a lot of unrealized potential on this team, which leads me to believe that Washington is going to rebound sooner or later. But given the loss of Harper, Strasburg, and other key regulars, I' don't see that turnaround happening in the near future. I could, however, see them getting healthy in the second half, hitting more as the weather heats up and making a run after the All-Star Break, so I'm not going to write them off just yet. It's still early, and there's a lot of baseball left to be played.

NL East Preview

1st Place--Washington Nationals
2012 Record: 98-64
2012 Pythagorean: 96-66
2013 Projected: 102-60
Tom Verducci showed how 100-win teams are dying out in the modern game, but if any team has the potential to crack the century mark in the win column, its the Nationals. Washington posted the best record in baseball last year and returns fully intact (minus Mike Morse), another year older and wiser. This is a team that has to be considered World Series favorites because it has no holes. The Nats have quality bats top-to-bottom, speed, power and on-base ability. The only weak spot is catcher (Kurt Suzuki), but hopefully he hits so poorly that Wilson Ramos earns a chance to win the job back. Their rotation (Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Dan Haren, Jordan Zimmermann, and Ross Detwiler) is the best in baseball, and their bullpen is just as filthy with Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen setting up Rafael Soriano. Full seasons from Strasburg and Bryce Harper (and hopefully Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth) will push this team over the top.

2nd Place--Atlanta Braves
2012 Record: 94-68
2012 Pythagorean: 92-70
2013 Projected: 91-71
The Braves boast a young, exciting lineup loaded with tons of speed and power. Justin Upton and B.J. Upton are the key additions that will balance out Atlant's southpaw mashers with their righthanded pop. Jason Heyward took a big step forward last year to get back on the Ken Griffey Jr. track scouts predicted him to follow. Dan Uggla must improve after submitting the worst season of his career last year. Freddie Freeman should get better after putting his eye issues behind him. Gerald Laird will be forced to catch on a regular basis until Brian McCann returns, and even then there's a chance that McCann won't be the perennial All-Star we're used to seeing. Shortstop Andrelton Simmons plays stellar defense but will be tested in his first full big league season. However it's important to remember that Michael Bourn, Chipper Jones and Martin Prado and their combined 14 bWAR will not return in 2013. The rotation looks good on paperwith the timeless Tim Hudson leading the way, flanked by Mike Minor, Paul Maholm, and budding ace Kris Medlen. Medlen pitched like Sandy Koufax in a dozen starts last year, but it remains to be seen how he'll hold up over the course of a full season. The staff will get a nice boost if/when Brandon Beachy returns from Tommy John, probably near the end of the summer. Atlanta has what is arguably the best bullpen in baseball with Jordan Walden joining Jonny Venters, Craig Kimbrel and Eric O'Flaherty. The Braves are going to be tough to beat in the late innings of close ballgames and shouldn't have much of a problem making it back to the postseason.

3rd Place--Philadelphia Phillies
2012 Record: 81-81
2012 Pythagorean: 81-81
2013 Projected: 87-75
The Phillies were massive disappointments last year, when injuries ruined their roster and resulted in a .500 season. It's easy to write them off as too old and injury-prone (like the Yankees), but don't forget that they're just one year removed from a 102 win season. Philadelphia is still a dangerous, if not top-heavy, ballclub loaded with veteran talent. The offense is an interesting mix of aging stars and unproven youngsters. The infield triumvirate of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Jimmy Rollins are all past their primes, but if they all stay healthy then they're going to be productive. Carlos Ruiz will return from his suspension at the end of the month to provide an offensive lift behind the plate, even if there's no chance he replicates his sensational 2012. Everybody's saying this is the year Domonic Brown breaks out, and one look at his spring training numbers confirms the hype. The outfield (Brown, Ben Revere, and Laynce Nix) is going to miss Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino, though Revere provides a heavy dose of speed and defense as a homeless' man's Michael Bourn. Don't expect much out of newcomers Michael Young and Delmon Young. Philly's rotation is still a three-headed monster with Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee all capable of winning a Cy Young award, though Halladay is coming off a poor season and hasn't looked the same in spring training. His age and heavy workloads may have finally caught up to him. Lee pitched much better last year than his 6-9 record indicates and should see his win total bounce back in 2013. Jonathan Papelbon was terrific in his NL debut, but Charlie Manuel needs to deploy him properly. I don't think Philadelphia will make the playoffs, but one has to acknowledge that the talent is there for a 90 win season and a postseason berth.

4th Place--New York Mets
2012 Record: 74-88
2012 Pythagorean: 75-87
2013 Projected: 75-87
As bad as the depleted Yankees look right now, they'll still be better than their crosstown rivals. The last half-decade has not been kind to the team in Flushing, and this season doesn't figure to be any different. The Mets have a nice infield and several premier prospects, but that's not going to cut it in a loaded NL East. 23 year-old Ruben Tejada held his own as the everyday shortstop last year, but his lack of power makes him Elvis Andrus without the wheels. David Wright returned to form last year after a down 2011, but his health woes in spring training lead me to believe he might struggle again in 2013. Slugging first baseman Ike Davis is one of baseball's best kept secrets and should have better luck after posting a .246 BABiP last year. Now if he can just figure out how to hit lefties... He and Lucas Duda are coming into their primes and will be counted on to support Wright in the meat of New York's order. Without Johan Santana and R.A. Dickey, the rotation lacks a true number one. Jonathan Niese was great last year, but he's no ace. Neither is the ever-underrated Shaun Marcum, who missed time with an elbow strain last year and will open the season on the Disabled List. Young power-pitcher Matt Harvey needs to step up and fill the void, though he'll likely face an adjustment period at some point this season. He could be the best pitcher on the Mets this year, or he could just as easily go bust when big league hitters start figuring him out. I can't say I like New York's bullpen, not that it's going to make much of a difference either way. the Mets have the talent to be a .500 team at best, but I see them enduring a fifth consecutive losing season. At least they don't have to worry about finishing in last place.

5th Place--Florida Marlins
2012 Record: 69-93
2012 Pythagorean: 68-94
2013 Projected: 57-105
There's no way this team doesn't lose at least 100 games. Less than a year after spending money like a drunken playboy in a Vegas casino, the Marlins dismantled their roster piece by piece, trading away all their talent Harry Frazee-style. Now, all that's left is the wildly inconsistent Ricky Nolasco, a disgruntled Giancarlo Stanton (who may not see a decent pitch to hit again for the rest of the decade), and Twittaholic Logan Morrison. I envision many solo home runs in Stanton's future, for the basepaths will be just as empty as the seats in Miami's shiny new baseball stadium. The mass exodus began during the summer when the losses began to mount and it became clear the Marlins weren't going to contend for a playoff spot. Hanley Ramirez took his fading star to Hollywood. Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante packed their bags for Motown. A struggling Gaby Sanchez got dumped on the Pittsburgh Pirates. After the season ended Heath Bell was banished to the Arizona desert. Ozzie Guillen got canned. Then, to top it all off, the Fish pulled off a fire sale that rivaled Boston's late summer housecleaning. Miami jettisoned its remaining stars--Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, and Mark Buehrle--north of the border in a blockbuster 12-player trade that rocked the baseball world and ignited a media firestorm. It's no wonder Stanton wants to be traded, too.