Here Comes Chicago

With Lester aboard, the Cubs have the pitching to complement their hitting (NESN)

Despite finishing last year with identical 73-89 records, the remade Chicago Cubs and White Sox are teams to be feared in 2015.

The long-suffering Cubs are coming off their fifth consecutive fifth-place finish and 106th straight season without a World Series championship (but who's counting). Even so, 2014 was an encouraging year for the beleaguered Cubbies. Franchise centerpieces Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro enjoyed bounce back years, Jorge Soler and Kyle Hendricks made promising debuts, and Jake Arrieta was one of the National League's best pitchers on a per-inning basis. Chicago ranked second in the Senior Circuit in long balls, and Kris Bryant hasn't even arrived yet. Imagine how many bombs they'll hit when he does and with Soler and Javier Baez playing every day.

Entering the fourth year of Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer's rebuilding project, Chicago appears on the brink of contention. The major league roster finally has the talent ready to compete. Aided by Soler and Hendriks, the Cubs were actually a much better team in the second half last year despite trading away their two best pitchers (Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel) in early July. Chicago went 31-28 after July 27th, winning one more game than the eventual World Series champion San Francisco Giants during that span.

It's no secret that Chicago has an abundance of young hitting talent, so the next logical step was to add quality arms this winter. The Cubs did so by re-signing Jason Hammel, who had a 2.98 ERA in 17 starts with them last year before being traded to Oakland, and swaying Jon Lester away from the Red Sox with a jaw-dropping six-year, $155 million offer that sent shockwaves throughout baseball. Chicago's new ace immediately improves a rotation that had the seventh-highest ERA in baseball last year. A vaunted big game pitcher and two-time World Series champion with Boston, Lester brings a furnished postseason track record to the Windy City as well.

Chicago also acquired arguably the game's best manager in Joe Maddon. Maddon, a two-time AL Manager of the year (2008 and 2011), helmed the Rays to five 90-win seasons between 2008 and 2013 (and 84 wins in 2009, the lone non-90 win season in that timeframe). More importantly, he has postseason experience, having managed four playoff teams in Tampa Bay including the 2008 American League champions. Unlike most of the Cubs, he's been to the World Series.

And while the Cubs didn't get the market's top catcher (Russell Martin, who went to the Blue Jays instead), they still got a good one by trading for Miguel Montero. A two-time All-Star, Montero was a four-win player in 2011 and 2012 and should remain productive at age 31. In addition to swinging a pretty solid stick, he also provides veteran leadership and experience behind the plate.

A busy offseason has prepared the Cubs for a competitive 2015 that could very well result in a playoff berth. Chicago will have its hands full with the St. Louis Cardinals, favorites to win the division for the third year in a row,  but the rest of the division looks less than formidable. The Reds are rebuilding, the Pirates keep losing talent (i.e. Martin), and the Brewers haven't improved. The Cubs could easily finish second and ride a wild card berth all the way to World Series glory.

Jose Abreu (pictured) and Chris Sale have help (GalleryHip)

The White Sox, who last made the playoffs in 2008, were essentially a .500 team last year into August (54-56 on the morning of August 2nd) before fading down the stretch. They were second in their division through the first week in June, but ultimately their thin rotation and aging lineup caught up to them.

Don't expect the same issues to derail Chicago this year. The White Sox won't have the MLB's sixth-worst rotation ERA again after trading for Jeff Samardzija, one of the game's premier power pitchers. Paired with Chris Sale, Samardizja gives the Sox an outstanding left-right punch atop their rotation. Chicago also signed David Robertson, a shutdown closer and one of baseball's best relievers over the past four years. He solidifies the back end of a leaky bullpen that finished 2014 with the third-worst ERA in the majors.

The White Sox upgraded their offense as well, inking Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche to bolster a lineup that was heavily dependent on Jose Abreu in 2014. LaRoche, a lock for 20 to 25 home runs when healthy, offsets the loss of Adam Dunn as the team's primary lefthanded power source. A former Gold Glove winner, LaRoche will also allow Abreu to DH a few times per week.

Cabrera figures to slide in behind leadoff man Adam Eaton, giving the team two quality table-setters for Abreu and LaRoche. With an OPS above .800 in three of the past four seasons, he's the kind of impact bat Chicago needs, and like LaRoche his power should play well at U.S. Cellular Field. Cabrera's also a switch-hitter, which helps keep Chicago's lineup balanced.

Like the Cubs, the White Sox seem to have an insurmountable foe in their division vis a vis the Detroit Tigers, winners of four straight AL Central crowns. They also must contend with the reigning AL pennant winners (though Kansas City will surely suffer from losing James Shields), and a solid Indians team. Even the Twins have improved. Accordingly, Chicago will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs coming out of such a competitive division, but I'd expect them to at least go .500. They're still a bit top-heavy (they're doomed if Abreu and/or Sale are lost for extended periods of time), but if their stars are healthy and perform then they'll have enough talent to make some noise.

Regardless of which side they stand on, Chicago baseball fans have plenty to be excited about. Both teams are much-improved and will be right in the thick of things, which hasn't been the case very often. Neither club has made the playoffs since 2008, but it wouldn't surprise me to see both playing next October.

An all-Chicago World Series might be a longshot, but at least there's a chance.

100 Games in

As many teams reach the century mark in games played, let's take stock of what we've learned from the season's first 100 games played.

• After piling up 106 losses last year, the lowly Houston Astros (34-68) are the worst team in baseball again.  After dealing Carlos Lee, Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers, they essentially have no established major league talent.  I guess that's one way to rebuild; start from scratch and embrace the youth movement.  Let's just say they won't be making the playoffs anytime soon.
• The Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals are tied with the New York Yankees for the best record in baseball at 60-40.  Business as usual for the Bronx Bombers, but surprising for the two NL teams given that both finished below .500 last year--the Nats were 80-81 and the Reds were 79-83.
• Not even Theo Epstein's magic touch can save the Cubs from another season buried near the bottom of the standings.  As for Magic Johnson and the LA Dodgers?  That's another story.
• Ten years later, Billy Beane is still a genius.  And there's something crazy happening in Oakland.  Just imagine if Manny Ramirez had made the team.
• The Red Sox still can't get their act together.  And Red Sox/Yankees has lost its luster.
• The Pirates are legitimately good.  For real, this time.  The Orioles, however, are not.
• Joey Votto is the best pure hitter in baseball, Justin Verlander is the best pitcher, and Jose Bautista has the most power, but the title of best all-around player is up for grabs.  Trout?  Matt Kemp?  Ryan Braun?  What about Josh Hamilton and Andrew McCutchen?  Whomever you choose, chances are he plays the outfield.
• Adam Dunn is not "done," but Ichiro Suzuki is.
• Andy Pettitte, like his old pal Roger Clemens, has a hard time walking away from the game.  He still hasn't reached Brett Favre territory.
• Bryce Harper and Mike Trout are just as good as everyone said they would be.  So are international imports Yu Darvish and Yoenis Cespedes, for that matter.
• The addition of a second Wild Card has changed everything.  If it feels like every team is still in the playoff hunt, it's because many of them still are.  In the AL only three teams--Kansas City, Minnesota, and Seattle--are definitively (at least ten games back) out of the race.  Over in the NL, you have four--Chicago, Colorado, Houston, and San Diego.  That's why nobody's selling and everybody's buying as the trade deadline draws near.
• The American League is still superior to the National League (based on Interleague play), the final score of the All-Star Game notwithstanding.
• For the third year in a row, offense is down.  Pitching and defense still reign supreme
• Other important trends; teams are shifting on defense more than ever before, batters are striking out more than ever before and players are spending more time on the DL than ever before.  Attendance is up 1,652 fans per game from the same time last year.
• We need expanded use of instant replay, especially when October rolls around.  Umpires are still missing way too many calls.

Red Sox Have 3 Holes

Spring training is about three weeks away, and the Red Sox still have three major problem areas.  Let's take a look.

Rightfield
J.D. Drew is finally gone, and not a moment too soon for many Red Sox fans.  His five year, $70 million contract will be remembered as one of the ill-advised investments of the Theo Epstein era, not because Drew isn't a good player (he's solid defensively and batted .264/.370/.455 with the Bosox, good for a 114 OPS+ and about 20 dingers a season) but because he's so prone to injury.  He averaged just 121 games played per year in Beantown, topping out at 140 in 2007 and missing half of his contract year in 2011.  Boston handed Cody Ross a one year, three million dollar deal, which will be a bargain if Ross hits like he did in 2008-2009 but won't do much good if he keeps hitting like he has over the past two seasons.  If Ross (hopefully just a stopgap for next year's free agents Andre Ethier and Josh Hamilton) doesn't pan out or misses time like he did in 2011, new skipper Bobby Valentine will have to go with a platoon of Ryan Sweeney and Ryan Kalish.  Sweeney (fourteen home runs in 472 career games) hits with about as much power as Juan Pierre, although in fairness he has decent on-base skills and wouldn't be the worst number 8 or 9 hitter in the majors.  Kalish will be 24 at the start of the season and has much more upside, but with just 53 major league games under his belt he probably isn't ready to take over as the everyday rightfielder just yet.  Drew is 36 and his best days are behind him, but I think I'd rather have him for another year instead of the Ryan tandem.

Shortstop
It's been seven and a half years since Epstein shipped Nomar Garciaparra to the Chicago Cubs, and the Red Sox still haven't been able to find a reliable shortstop in his stead.  Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Alex Gonzalez, Julio Lugo, and Nick Green didn't last long, and neither did Boston's most recent shorstop, Marco Scutaro.  Trading him to Colorado for the purpose of dumping his six million dollar a year salary just doesn't make any sense for a team with such enormous financial resources, especially since it doesn't look like that money is going to be used on Roy Oswalt (reportedly close to a deal with St. Louis).  Like Drew, Scoots just turned 36 and missed a lot of games last year, but when healthy he was still an above average shortstop at the plate with his 110 OPS+.  There aren't any available shortstops to plug the gap, leaving a platoon of Nick Punto and Mike Aviles to man short.  The 34 year-old Punto is your typical decent glove-no stick shortstop, and his wiffle ball bat offense makes Ryan Sweeney look like Ryan Braun.  Aviles has career OPS nearly 100 points higher than Punto and is clearly the superior hitter, but he rates below average with the leather and has never been an everyday player, whereas Punto has appeared in as many as 150 games in a season.  Shortstop looks like a real mess in 2012, and it seems as though Punto and Aviles are merely placeholders until Jose Iglesias can take over the job, hopefully in 2013.

Starting pitcher
The rotation is still top heavy; after Josh Beckett (durability issues), Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz (just one season with more than sixteen starts) the Sox don't have any reliable starters.  John Lackey is out for the whole year and Daisuke Matsuzaka hasn't been effective since 2008, so the back end of the rotation is razor thin.  I was really hoping Cherington could pull off a deal with Oswalt, but that seems unlikely, so perhaps he will make a run at Matt Cain or Cole Hamels next winter?  A lack of starting pitching depth was the downfall of the 2011 Red Sox, and the front office hasn't done much to fix it.  Aaron Cook is a longshot to regain his 2008 All-Star form, and he's not the answer to the team's pitching woes.  Now that the Yankees have Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda to go with C.C. Sabathia, and Tampa Bay has a loaded rotation as always, it looks as though Boston simply won't have enough pitching to compete with the AL Beast next season.  If the Red Sox miss the playoffs again, it will be the first time since 2000-2002 that the team failed to make October in three consecutive seasons.

My Favorite Red Sox

My favorite Sox players through the years, going back to 1998 when I became a die-hard fan at the age of six.

Mo Vaughn
I have memories of him lumbering down to first base after grounding out, followed by my confusion as to why he wasn't sprinting down the line.  I was devastated when Dan Duquette didn't resign him following the '98 season.  Like Fred Lynn two decades before him, Vaughn wasn't the same player after splitting for California.  Baseball-wise, he was the 90's version of Ortiz, but off the field he was a tad more mischievious.

Nomar Garciaparra
A man crush explained here.  I idolized him the same way the Baby Boomers worshipped Mickey Mantle, and I wanted to be him when I grew up.  I was crushed when Theo traded him, but at the same time understood that he had to go.

The two-time batting champ will always be my favorite Red Sox player

Jason Varitek
Few handled a pitching staff better than 'Tek (Beckett refused to pitch to Victor Martinez), and the team captain was a pretty good switch-hitter back in the day, too.  Varitek is a throwback player who's so old school that he (and his buzz cut) looks like he just arrived from 1955 in Dr. Brown's DeLorean.  The photograph of him stuffing his mitt into Alex Rodriguez's grill during a midseason showdown is the defining image of the Yankee-Red Sox rivalry.

Brian Daubach
I remember him tearing the cover off the ball when he was promoted during the '99 season, and a September swoon adversely affected his still great .294/.360/.562.  The 27 year-old bargain finished fourth in the AL Rookie of the Year voting despite competing with a stacked freshman class that included winner Carlos Beltran, Freddy Garcia, Tim Hudson, Carlos Lee, and teammate Trot Nixon.  He was a solid, consistent first baseman in the same mold as Trot who could be counted on for 20 homers and decent on-base figures, but after Epstein got Ortiz and Jeremy Giambi there just wasn't any room for him.  I could have sworn he had some killer sideburns, but can't find any photographic evidence to prove it.  I must be thinking of his doppleganger Nick Swisher.

Trot Nixon
A tough, gritty player who loved pine tar more than George Brett and always seemed to save his best for the Yankees, especially Roger Clemens.  The stats (.246/.350/.406 against New York) don't back this up, so I guess I have a selective memory.  Trot, the epitome of a classic Red Sox player in that he could mash but was too slow to do anything else, broke down after he turned 30 and was never the same.

Tim Wakefield
Popular player, great teammate and one of the rare starting pitchers who make their livings off the fluttering knuckleball.  Not even Aaron Boone belting a series-ending homer into the bleachers at the Stadium in '03 could turn the fans against Wake.  He's always done the dirty work of a back end rotation filler/innings eater, so it was great to see him get his 200th career win with the Red Sox, who gave him a chance in 1995 after the Pirates gave up on him. 

Ortiz is always smiling

David Ortiz
The only thing bigger than his hits is his grin, which stretches from Beantown to the Dominican Republic.  I will always have a special place in my heart for the Big Papi, the lovable teddy bear of a slugger who dismantled the Evil Empire with his walk-off hits and flair for the dramatic.  It's easy to forget now, but he was widely considered to be one of the best hitters in baseball along with Albert Pujols and A-Rod in the mid-aughts.  With the game on the line, this burly slugger is the man I want up at the plate.



Mike Lowell
Classy guy and consummate professional who resurrected his careerin Boston after everyone thought he was washed up.  He thrived in Fenway, and I'm sure taking aim the Green Monster helped extend his career.  I was in the grandstand for Mike Lowell appreciation day on the penultimate day of the 2010 season, and the farewell ceremony was a fitting tribute to the team's best third baseman since Wade Boggs.

Jon Lester
The guy came back from cancer to finish off a sweep of the Rockies in the 2007 Fall Classic, and now he's one of the best pitchers in baseball.  How many players can say that?  Forget Josh Beckett; Lester is the ace and workhorse of this team, a la Curt Schilling surpassing Pedro Martinez in 2004.  He's a bulldog who wants to finish what he starts.

Kevin Youkilis
I can see why Billy Beane and Paul DePodesta wanted this guy on their team so badly.  Love his attitude; he treats an afternoon game in May like it's Game 7 of the World Series, and every at-bat is life-or-death to him.  He's a gamer who wears his heart on his sleeve, and I think he dies a little inside every time he strikes out with runners on base, and it's nice to see some emotion before J.D. Drew passively takes a called third strike to end the inning (Drew, a borderline zombie, is the antithesis of Youkilis; he spent five years in this city and I can't remember a single smile or grimace).  I admire Youk's passion and competitive fire almost as much as I admire his uncanny ability to rise to the occasion with runners in scoring position; the Greek God of Walks is a career .289/.391/.492 hitter, but bats .328/.436/.554 with RISP.  In other terms, he transforms from Andre Ethier into Todd Helton circa 2005.  Lastly, it took a lot of guts to stand up to an established superstar like Manny Ramirez

Pedroia and Youkilis play the game with an unmatched intensity

Dustin Pedroia
How can you not root for a pint-sized second baseman nicknamed "The Laser Show" who swings from his heels and ropes line drives to all fields?  The diminuitive second baseman swings a big stick, knows when to grab a bag and plays outstanding defense at the keystone position.  He's a lot like Youkilis in that he's very gritty, hard-nosed, emotional, and driven.  While they lack in raw athleticism, they make up for that deficiency with their heart.

Daniel Bard
"Bard-On" can bring the heat, and you gotta love a flamethrower who comes out of the 'pen and mows guys down.  He's no Aroldis Chapman, but in my 15 years as a fan I've never seen a Bosox pitcher throw harder than this man.

Adrian Gonzalez
The dude rakes, and I'm glad he's finally getting the attention he deserves now that he's escaped from PETCO.  I've never been there, but I hear tourists mistake it for the Grand Canyon.

Cubs Hire Epstein

Epstein will attempt to break an even longer curse in Chicago

Terry Francona was the first casualty of the historic Boston Red Sox collapse, and now it looks like DM wunderkind Theo Epstein has put Beantown in his rearview mirror as well.

After building the unforgettable team that ended the city's 86 year World Series drought, Epstein is reportedly on his way to Chicago, where he will attempt to help the Cubbies win their first title since 1908 (or at least get them to their first Fall Classic since 1945).  The Cubs had already wooed Theo throughout most of September, and it's certainly possible he would have taken the position even if his Red Sox managed to hold their Wild Card lead and limp into the postseason. 

Although it is sad to see the architect of Boston's mini-dynasty skip town, there really wasn't much left for him to do there.  He joined the Sox as a 28 year-old Yalie, the youngest GM in baseball history who had dreamed of working for the Old Towne Team as a high schooler in local Brookline.  He inherited a talented team from interim GM Mike Port that hadn't made the playoffs since 1999 but included superstars Manny Ramirez, Nomar Garciaparra and Pedro Martinez.  After a roster overhaul brought undervalued players such as Kevin Millar, Bill Mueller, Todd Walker and David Ortiz to Beantown during his offseason debut, he had assembled one of the most potent lineups in baseball history that carried the team to within five outs of the World Series.  After replacing Grady Little with Terry Francona, Epstein addressed the squad's most glaring weakness--pitching--by bringing an ace and shutdown closer in Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke.  But he still wasn't content, and nearly pulled off a blockbuster three-way trade of Nomar and Manny for Alex Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez.  This guy had guts.

And the rest, as they say, is history.  Epstein saved the 2004 season with a blockbuster deadline trade of Garciaparra to the Cubs to acquire Gold Glovers Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz, two players who sparked Boston's second half surge and eventual World Series triumph.  Boston bowed out of the ALDS in 2005, and Epstein unexpectedly resigned shortly after.  Fortunately, he was rehired as the GM and Executive VP three months later and helped bring Boston another championship in 2007.  Meanwhile, the organization thrived; Fenway Park is riding an impressive sellout streak, the franchise became much more saavy with its new emphasis on statistical analysis, the farm system flourished (see Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Jonathan Papelbon) and the team is a threat to win the World Series every year. At this point, his job was more about maintaining and tweaking the team than rebuilding it . 

Even so, Epstein has received plenty of criticism for his inability to find a stable, productive replacement at shortstop for Garciaparra, whose successors include Edgar Renteria, Alex Gonzalez, Julio Lugo, Jed Lowrie, and Marco Scutaro.  He's also been bashed for questionable and expensive free-agent signings such as Renteria, J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo, Daisuke Matsuzaka, John Lackey, and Carl Crawford.  I don't blame Epstein for any of them because they were all good players when he signed them and it's impossible to gauge how a player will handle Boston's intense media and fans.  The Red Sox have the second largest payroll in baseball at $163 million, so they can afford to make these kinds of "mistakes," just as the Yankees can afford to lose money on Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano, Kei Igawa, A.J. Burnett, and Rafael Soriano.  Perhaps they weren't the wisest decisions, but they were certainly defensible at the time.

So now he takes over the Cubs with a new five year, $20 million contract.  Fifth place Chicago just completed a 71-91 season and is looking to rebuild around a solid young nucleus that includes Starlin Castro, Geovany Soto, Tyler Colvin and Matt Garza.  Their attendance is strong (over 3 million fans) and they have a lot of money coming off the books soon, but the frustrated franchise still has a long way to go if it wants to overtake the more talented Cardinals, Brewers and Reds. 

First he vanquished the Curse of the Bambino, so naturally the next step is to take down the even longer and more ludicrous Curse of the Billy Goat.  Fortunately for long-suffering Cubs fans, Epstein is the right man for that job.

To Bedard or Not to Bedard?

The Red Sox did not get All-Stars Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn or Carlos Beltran to fill in for rightfielder J.D. Drew (15 Day DL with left shoulder impingement).  Theo didn't trade for Colorado ace Ubaldo Jimenez to replace ailing starting pitcher Clay Buchholz (60 Day DL with stress fracture in lower back, likely done for the season).  Boston didn't acquire Rafael Furcal to stabilize its perpetual revolving door at shortstop, nor did it obtain the services of Colby Rasmus (future star) or Derrek Lee (former star).

But unlike the Yankees (how in the world did they not get a starting pitcher?  Crippling mistake, Mr. Cashman), the Sox did make some moves at the deadline.   They brought in Mike Aviles, a 30 year-old middle infielder who quietly eclipsed a .300 batting average for the Royals in 2008 and 2010, and shipped out backup Yamaico Navarro and minor league reliever Kendal Volz.  This move is minor and unlikely to affect the team's success, but I like it because it adds some infield depth and insurance for the aging Marco Scutaro.  Volz wasn't doing anything special down on the farm and Navarro didn't help with his glove or bat, so Aviles looks like a small upgrade for the stretch run and should see some action when Scoots needs a breather.

What I really want to talk about is the coming of Erik "DL" Bedard, the onetime Cy Young award candidate who has plenty of talent but lacks durability.  After finishing fifth in the voting as an Oriole back in 2007, Baltimore sold high to the Mariners for five players, including current star Adam Jones.  The crafty southpaw (who missed September of '07 with a strained oblique-just a harbinger of wounds to come) started only fifteen games in 2008, then fifteen more in 2009 for the Ms.  He may have possessed the best curve in baseball (according to Kevin Millar), but the guy couldn't even make it into August in either campaign.  Bedard missed all of 2010 rehabbing the torn labium in his pitching shoulder from the previous season, then promptly lost his first four starts in 2011 as he shook off the rust.   Ebay suddenly regained ace form and pitched like his old self over the next two months, compiling a sterling 1.77 ERA and impressive 68/15 K/BB rate across a span of eleven starts.  After completing his obligatory DL stint (knee injury) in July, he failed to get out of the second inning against the Rays in his return, a game played under the watchful eyes of Epstein's scouting minions.

Disregarding the shaky outing, Boston went ahead and took a chance on a Bedard rental, dumping four minor leaguers in a three team trade with the hapless Mariners and Dodgers.  The Red Sox were reportedly looking at fellow free-agent-to-be Rich Harden as well, but his shaky health history scared off the team doctors (who had more faith in the brittle Bedard). 

Two injury prone starters with undeniable talent; did Theo make the right move for his summer rental?  Let's compare their stats, but note that Harden has only started five games wheras Bedard started sixteen, so Harden's sample size is much smaller.  To compensate, I relied on rate statistics instead of counting stats.

Bedard 3.45 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 108 ERA+, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 K/BB
Harden 4.30 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 94 ERA+, 9.2 K/9, 3 K/BB

Pretty close, but a slight edge goes to Bedard based on ERA and ERA+ (adjusted for ballpark).  FanGraphs indicates Bedard's numbers accurately reflect his performance thus far, while also indicating Harden may have been a tad unlucky. Harden is two and a half years younger and tends to pitch better in the second half, but on the other hand he was atrocious in his two career starts at Fenway.  Bedard seems to wear down in the second half (that is, when he actually pitches) and hasn't thrown well at Fenway (historically a graveyard for lefties like him) either, so they seem to be a wash based on their stats and circumstances.  Based on this season alone, I like Bedard a little bit more though and think Theo made the correct decision.  Harden's been pretty brutal the past three years and has always played for teams in the offensively weaker NL Central and AL West.  Bedard is AL Beast battle-tested from his years with Baltimore, so he know's a thing or two about the powerful division's deep lineups.

His first start for the Sox is Thursday against the scuffling Tribe, who shouldn't pose too much of a threat.  Luckily, for him, it's almost impossible for him to do much worse than he did his last time out, but he might nieed another start or two as he looks to find his rhythm.

Beltran in Boston?

The MLB trade deadline is less than two weeks away, and the Red Sox are looking to add more firepower to baseball's best offense? Don't they have a $163 million dollar payroll and the second best record in the majors?  Didn't they just get Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez?

Jesus, aren't they still the favorites to win the pennant and possibly the World Series?  Does any of that matter?

The answers to those questions are yes, yep, sure, you bet and of course, but Epstein is still looking to do some last minute wheeling and dealing for Carlos Beltran, among others.  Given Theo's propensity for late July splashes--the man shipped away Nomar Garciaparra and Manny Ramirez, netted Jason Bay and Victor Martinez--maybe it's reasonable to assume that the guy just can't help himself.  Perhaps he's become a bit trigger happy, a little too eager to make some phone calls and push the big red button on his desk just for the sake of doing something, anything at the deadline.  It's also possible he just never learned to realize when you have a good thing, nay, a great thing, going and just sit on your hands when the end of July rolls around.  Or maybe, just maybe, he doesn't have an ounce of faith in this team, and neither should you.

I'm being facetious.  No team is perfect, not even this one, and the trading deadline is a great time to assess the squad and attempt to plug some holes before the stretch run, to seal the leaks that could eventually sink World Series dreams.  Theo's generally done an exceptional job at this; he saved the season in 2004 by overhauling the defense and his midseason moves always seem to work out, with Eric "Gag-me" Gagne being the one glaring exception from recent memory.  Sometimes staying the course can be prudent, and other times it will lead you straight into an iceberg.  Right now, Epstein is at the wheel and senses danger looming on the horizon.  He's looking at that potent offense and sees a black hole in right field with J.D. Drew. 

Drew's been brutal at the plate this year, but his above average defense means he basically has the value of a replacement level player so far (quick statement of the obvious--replacement players have not, are not, and never will be worth $14 million, not even in 2111 when the Albert Pujolses of the world will make more than $50 mil a year. If that number scares you, remember that I just threw out a figure based on a meaningless adjustment for inflation).  Can the Sox win in October with him? Probably, but would replacing him with Carlos Beltran improve their chances?

Definitely, and that's why Theo has his sights set on him.  Drew needs a change of scenery and is going to be gone when his contract expires after the season, but the sooner he can escape Boston's pressure-cooker the better.  Beltran, one of the game's best all-around players since he was named AL Rookie of the Year a dozen years ago, is enjoying a resurgence this year and could also use a change of scenery even though he says he wants to stay in the Big Apple and has a no-trade clause.  The most coveted outfielder on the market, Beltran is exactly what Epstein is looking for.  Unfortunately SI's Jon Heyman says the Phillies, the only team better than the Red Sox right now, seem to be the favorite in the Carlos Beltran sweepstakes at the moment, and it's very possible that he could be the difference maker in October given his ability to dominate a playoff series.  Philadelphia has a greater need for the six-time All-Star, since their offense has been shockingly average given their loaded lineup and they clearly miss Jayson Werth's right-handed bat.  The switch-hitting Beltran can provide extra pop with his .523 slugging percentage, solid run production and league-leading 30 doubles, so he'd be a perfect fit for the Phillies.

But what if Theo works his magic and Beltran finds himself in Boston?  It's a big what if, especially since up to ten teams have shown interest in him.  That's a lot of competition for one player, and I'm not getting my hopes up.  Let's have some fun with this thing anyways and explore five pros and cons of that possibility, however slim:

Pros
1. Despite the knee issues, his defense is just as good as Drew's based on baseball-reference's defensive WAR
2. He's one year younger than J.D. and, with 3.6 WAR, is a much more effective player
3. Boston, like Philadelphia, has a left-handed heavy lineup (although not as extreme) and replacing Drew, a lefty, with Beltran gives them more balance
4. He hits well at Fenway, with a career .327 average and ten extra base hits in 101 at-bats.  Taking him out of cavernous Citi Field gives him a shot at finishing the year with a .300 average, 25 home runs, 50 doubles and 100 runs/RBI if he can stay on the field and finish the season strong
5. He takes his game to another level in the postseason with a .366/.485/.817 Barry Bonds(on-steroids) slash line, plus eleven home runs in only 22 games.  The dude flat-out mashes when the bright lights shine

Cons
1. Beltran's been injury prone lately, as he missed half of his 2009 season and 98 games last year.  He went under the knife for knee surgery in between those two seasons and is no spring chicken at age 34.  There's some health risk here
2. Even if he stays healthy, his performance could suffer down the stretch.  He hasn't played a full season since 2008 and might wear down during the dog days of August
3. The Mets are rebuilding and trimming the payroll, so the asking price will probably be high in terms of young, affordable talent
4. He's a free agent at the end of the season, meaning Boston would have to give up prospects for what could ultimately be a rental player
5. With only three stolen bases so far, he's no longer the threat on the basepaths who posted double digit steal totals every year from 1999 through 2009

Beltran would be a welcome addition and an obvious upgrade over Drew, but I think the team is good enough as is and Theo shouldn't do (and won't--he's too smart and I trust him to do what's best for the team) whatever it takes to get him.  He might not go anywhere if the Mets can make a run now that Jose Reyes and David Wright are due back, and I'd be surprised if he spends the next few months racing toward the Pesky Pole to track down slicing line drives.  Still, anything can happen and if Beltran ends up in Beantown or the City of Brotherly Love he's a lock to make the playoffs for the first time since 2006.  His offensive numbers will benefit from hitting in cozier ballparks with better lineups around him, too, and that boost should give him some more bargaining power when Scott Boras negotiates another substantial payday for him this winter.

Just don't expect Theo to be the one footing the bill.