Here Comes Chicago

With Lester aboard, the Cubs have the pitching to complement their hitting (NESN)

Despite finishing last year with identical 73-89 records, the remade Chicago Cubs and White Sox are teams to be feared in 2015.

The long-suffering Cubs are coming off their fifth consecutive fifth-place finish and 106th straight season without a World Series championship (but who's counting). Even so, 2014 was an encouraging year for the beleaguered Cubbies. Franchise centerpieces Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro enjoyed bounce back years, Jorge Soler and Kyle Hendricks made promising debuts, and Jake Arrieta was one of the National League's best pitchers on a per-inning basis. Chicago ranked second in the Senior Circuit in long balls, and Kris Bryant hasn't even arrived yet. Imagine how many bombs they'll hit when he does and with Soler and Javier Baez playing every day.

Entering the fourth year of Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer's rebuilding project, Chicago appears on the brink of contention. The major league roster finally has the talent ready to compete. Aided by Soler and Hendriks, the Cubs were actually a much better team in the second half last year despite trading away their two best pitchers (Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel) in early July. Chicago went 31-28 after July 27th, winning one more game than the eventual World Series champion San Francisco Giants during that span.

It's no secret that Chicago has an abundance of young hitting talent, so the next logical step was to add quality arms this winter. The Cubs did so by re-signing Jason Hammel, who had a 2.98 ERA in 17 starts with them last year before being traded to Oakland, and swaying Jon Lester away from the Red Sox with a jaw-dropping six-year, $155 million offer that sent shockwaves throughout baseball. Chicago's new ace immediately improves a rotation that had the seventh-highest ERA in baseball last year. A vaunted big game pitcher and two-time World Series champion with Boston, Lester brings a furnished postseason track record to the Windy City as well.

Chicago also acquired arguably the game's best manager in Joe Maddon. Maddon, a two-time AL Manager of the year (2008 and 2011), helmed the Rays to five 90-win seasons between 2008 and 2013 (and 84 wins in 2009, the lone non-90 win season in that timeframe). More importantly, he has postseason experience, having managed four playoff teams in Tampa Bay including the 2008 American League champions. Unlike most of the Cubs, he's been to the World Series.

And while the Cubs didn't get the market's top catcher (Russell Martin, who went to the Blue Jays instead), they still got a good one by trading for Miguel Montero. A two-time All-Star, Montero was a four-win player in 2011 and 2012 and should remain productive at age 31. In addition to swinging a pretty solid stick, he also provides veteran leadership and experience behind the plate.

A busy offseason has prepared the Cubs for a competitive 2015 that could very well result in a playoff berth. Chicago will have its hands full with the St. Louis Cardinals, favorites to win the division for the third year in a row,  but the rest of the division looks less than formidable. The Reds are rebuilding, the Pirates keep losing talent (i.e. Martin), and the Brewers haven't improved. The Cubs could easily finish second and ride a wild card berth all the way to World Series glory.

Jose Abreu (pictured) and Chris Sale have help (GalleryHip)

The White Sox, who last made the playoffs in 2008, were essentially a .500 team last year into August (54-56 on the morning of August 2nd) before fading down the stretch. They were second in their division through the first week in June, but ultimately their thin rotation and aging lineup caught up to them.

Don't expect the same issues to derail Chicago this year. The White Sox won't have the MLB's sixth-worst rotation ERA again after trading for Jeff Samardzija, one of the game's premier power pitchers. Paired with Chris Sale, Samardizja gives the Sox an outstanding left-right punch atop their rotation. Chicago also signed David Robertson, a shutdown closer and one of baseball's best relievers over the past four years. He solidifies the back end of a leaky bullpen that finished 2014 with the third-worst ERA in the majors.

The White Sox upgraded their offense as well, inking Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche to bolster a lineup that was heavily dependent on Jose Abreu in 2014. LaRoche, a lock for 20 to 25 home runs when healthy, offsets the loss of Adam Dunn as the team's primary lefthanded power source. A former Gold Glove winner, LaRoche will also allow Abreu to DH a few times per week.

Cabrera figures to slide in behind leadoff man Adam Eaton, giving the team two quality table-setters for Abreu and LaRoche. With an OPS above .800 in three of the past four seasons, he's the kind of impact bat Chicago needs, and like LaRoche his power should play well at U.S. Cellular Field. Cabrera's also a switch-hitter, which helps keep Chicago's lineup balanced.

Like the Cubs, the White Sox seem to have an insurmountable foe in their division vis a vis the Detroit Tigers, winners of four straight AL Central crowns. They also must contend with the reigning AL pennant winners (though Kansas City will surely suffer from losing James Shields), and a solid Indians team. Even the Twins have improved. Accordingly, Chicago will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs coming out of such a competitive division, but I'd expect them to at least go .500. They're still a bit top-heavy (they're doomed if Abreu and/or Sale are lost for extended periods of time), but if their stars are healthy and perform then they'll have enough talent to make some noise.

Regardless of which side they stand on, Chicago baseball fans have plenty to be excited about. Both teams are much-improved and will be right in the thick of things, which hasn't been the case very often. Neither club has made the playoffs since 2008, but it wouldn't surprise me to see both playing next October.

An all-Chicago World Series might be a longshot, but at least there's a chance.

Recounting Abreu's Rookie Season

Abreu had one of the best rookie years of all-time (FoxSports)

In an announcement that surprised no one, Jose Abreu was a unanimous selection for the American League Rookie of the Year. Abreu is just the ninth player ever to win the award unanimously, beating out Matt Shoemaker (second) and Dellin Betances (third). He was voted AL Rookie of the Year by Sporting News as well, winning the award in a landslide with 149 of 160 possible votes. Nobody else received more than four.

By batting .317 with 36 home runs and 107 RBI, the 27 year-old Cuban sensation became the first rookie in MLB history to rank top-five in his league for the Triple Crown stats (he was fifth in average, third in big flies and fourth in ribbies). His 36 home runs, a White Sox rookie record, were the sixth-most by a rookie all-time, exceeded only by Mark McGwire (49), Frank Robinson and Wally Berger (both with 38), and Al Rosen and Albert Pujols (both with 37). Interestingly, all those players are/were righthanded, as is Abreu. Had he not spent time on the Disabled List in May with ankle tendinitis, he likely would have joined Nelson Cruz in reaching the 40 home run benchmarks and/or passed all those aforementioned names save McGwire.

29 of those big flies came prior to the All-Star Break--only McGwire with 33 had more. Abreu was named AL Rookie of the Month in April, June, and July and took home AL Player of the Month honors in April and July. He set the record for most home runs and RBI by a rookie in the month of April, with 10 and 32, respectively (31 if you discount the one he recorded on March 31st). He also became the fourth player ever with 30 doubles, 30 homers, and 100 RBI in his rookie season, joining Hal Trosky, Ted Williams, and Albert Pujols.

What's more, Abreu was played a pretty solid first base. He had the highest Range Factor/9 innings and most double plays turned among American League first basemen. He ranked second in Range Factor/game and fourth in fielding percentage and putouts. All in all, not a bad first impression for somebody in the first year of a six-year, $68 million contract given to him before he'd ever stepped up to the plate in the big leagues.

Almost as unsurprising was the National League award going to Jacob deGrom, who secured 26 of the 30 possible first place votes to win handily. Billy Hamilton came in second and Kolten Wong finished third. DeGrom went 9-6 with a 2.69 ERA and 144 strikeouts in 140 and 1/3 innings pitched, making him just the fifth rookie in NL history to post an ERA below 2.75 and a K/9 ratio above 9 (the others being Jose Fernandez, Roy Oswalt, Hideo Nomo, and Dwight Gooden).

Originally called up in mid-May to work out of the Mets bullpen, he flourished as a starter with Dillon Gee out and made 22 starts in all. He had a few hiccups at first but pitched better as the season wore in, establishing himself as the team's top pitcher. New York hopes deGrom can be a mainstay in a rotation that gets Matt Harvey back next year and has an ace on the rise in Zack Wheeler. Together they'd form a formidable big three and are essential to the Mets having their first winning season since 2008.

50 Homer Dreams

Balls are flying off the bats of Abreu (pictured), Cruz, and Encarnacion.
But can they keep it up? (Chicago CBS Local)

At the halfway point of the season and three players, all American Leaguers, are on pace to finish the season with approximately 50 home runs.

Considering that the past six seasons have produced only two 50-homer campaigns--Jose Bautista's out-of-nowhere 54 in 2010 and Chris Davis's equally surprising 53 last year--it's doubtful that even one of them will reach the 50 homer plateau. But as it stands, all three are on track to do so or at least come close, and that alone is reason enough to stop and take notice.

Atop the leaderboards are Nelson Cruz and Jose Abreu, both with 26 bombs under their belts after going deep yesterday to break a three-way tie with Edwin Encarnacion, who's still stuck on 25. All are on pace to establish career highs, if not reach the 50 home run benchmark that defines a truly historic offensive campaign (well, unless you're Brady Anderson).

Baseball has not had multiple hitters with 50 or more home runs in the same season since 2007, when Alex Rodriguez (54) and Prince Fielder (50) both cleared the half-century mark. To find the last time two American Leaguers did so, you'd have to go back more than a decade to 2002, when A-Rod ripped 57 and Jim Thome tagged 52.

Three hitters exceeding 50 home runs in the same season is exceptionally rare, so much so that it's only happened twice in baseball history (which, if I'm not mistaken, dates back to the stone age). Both times performance enhancing drugs were involved, of course. The most recent occurrence was in 2001, when an "enhanced" Barry Bonds belted 73 to break Mark McGwire's single season record and eclipse fellow National Leaguers Sammy Sosa (64) and Luis Gonzalez (57). The only other time a trio topped 50 was in another monumental season for long balls; 1998, when McGwire mashed 70, Sosa socked 66, and Ken Griffey Jr hammered 56 in the most exciting home run race since Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris duked it out for Babe Ruth's record back in the summer of 1961.

Abreu, Cruz, and Encarnacion are all great power hitters, but certainly not on the Hall of Fame levels of those aforementioned stars. Which begs the question: can any of these guys reach 50 home runs, let alone all three?

Cruz, the oldest of the bunch at 34, appears to be the long shot due to his age and the fact that he's never even hit 35 home runs in any season. He also must contend with the tough pitching staffs of the AL East, which boasts dominant hurlers such as Masahiro Tanaka, Jon Lester, and David Price, among others. Lastly, he's historically struggled in August, in which he has the fewest home runs and second-lowest OPS of any month, meaning he's a good bet to tail off in the second half.

That said, Cruz does a great job of getting the ball in the air with more fly balls than ground balls to date, an approach well-suited to a homer-friendly park like Camden Yards, where Cruz plays half his games. Additionally his 24.3 percent HR/FB rate, a career high, is pretty reasonable considering that he's been over 21 percent three times before, including last year. So while I wouldn't bet on Cruz, I wouldn't count him out just yet, either.

For Encarnacion, this year could be shaping up to be a repeat of last year, when he also went yard 25 times in the first half, only to fade down the stretch and end the season at 36. Still, he does have more home runs than anyone since the start of the 2012 season, and he's also two and a half years younger than Cruz, who also hails from the Dominican Republic. The notoriously streaky first baseman will need to avoid another month like his April (two taters, .413 SLG) or replicate something approximating his monster month of May (18 dingers, .763 SLG). Like Cruz, Encarnacion also does a great job of lifting fly balls, with nearly half of his batted balls qualifying as such. His HR/FB, just south of 20 percent, is a career high but still has room to grow, especially during the summer months when the ball tends to fly out of ballparks.

As for Abreu, no one really knows what he's capable of. It is his first season, after all, which means it's probably only a matter of time before he endures a prolonged slump, as his 73/18 K/BB ratio seems to suggest. There's also no way he'll be able to sustain his current HR/FB rate, which is currently pushing up against 36 percent. He'll need to start hitting more fly balls to balance out his inevitable regression in that department, for his fly ball rate is currently lower than his HR/FB rate, which just screams fluke.

Then again, the Cuban rookie needed just 71 games to bash his 26 home runs, so with a full slate of games in the second half it's not unreasonable to think he'll at least match that number, if not exceed it. His future is the hardest to predict, but he's done nothing except set the world on fire since his debut back in April. it doesn't hurt that he calls the homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field home. He's also just 27, in the heart of his prime and at the peak of his powers, so who's to say he can't hit 50? For now, at least, McGwire's rookie record of 49 four-baggers appears to be in jeopardy, as does Albert Belle's franchise record of the same number.

If I had to bet on one to cross the 50-homer threshold, I'd pick Abreu simply because his raw power is so ridiculous. Cruz and Encarnacion are playing at their full potential, but there's a possibility, however slight, that Abreu hasn't reached his yet and could get even better with experience, a frightening proposition for any person who throws a baseball for a living. The sky's the limit for him, assuming he can avoid another trip to the Disabled List this year. Hopefully he's one and done.

Speaking of the DL, Cruz is always a health-risk, and frankly I wouldn't be surprised if he fell short of 40 even without getting hurt. Encarnacion's not a model of durability either: like Cruz, he has only one with season with more than 150 games played. I'm also not convinced he has 25 more homers in him this year, especially given his propensity for withering cold spells, but fully ackowledge that a great month of July could put him close to 40 with a third of the season left to play.

But regardless of where they end up, all three have put together marvelous first halves worthy of All-Star recognition. They're definitely worth keeping an eye on as the summer progresses, because if all three maintain their current paces they'll become the first trio of American Leaguers to hit 50 home runs in the same season. That would be pretty cool.

April Awards

May is here, which means the first month of baseball is in the books. Thus, it's time to hand out some awards.

American League
Player of the Month-Jose Bautista
Joey Bats is back. The slugging rightfielder drew 30 walks last month, most in baseball, to fuel his AL-best .467 OBP and 1.065 OPS. He also went yard eight times, tying Jose Abreu and Justin Upton for the best AB/HR ratio in the sport, scored 24 runs, and reached base more times than any player in baseball.

Pitcher of the Month-Masahiro Tanaka
The highly touted Japanese rookie has been even better than anticipated for the Yankees, asserting himself as the ace of New York's staff. His 2.27 ERA, 2.96 FIP and 0.93 WHIP are all superb, as is his 11.6 K/9 rate and 7.67 K/BB ratio. He's pitched at least seven innings in four of his five starts (all of which have produced a Game Score better than 60) and recorded double digit strikeouts three times. The Yankees have to be satisfied with the early returns on their seven-year, $155 million investment.

Rookie of the Month-Jose Abreu
What a month it was for Abreu, who surpassed Albert Pujols' rookie records for home runs and RBI in the month of April, finishing with 10 and 32, respectively--most in the majors. The Cuban slugger also leads the sport in total bases, AB/HR ratio, and extra base hits, plus has the best slugging percentage in the American League.

Team of the Month-Oakland A's
Led by its dominant pitching staff and potent offense, Oakland rolled to an 18-10 record in April behind the best run-differential in the sport, putting them three wins ahead of every other American League team. Strong starts from Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, and Jesse Chavez have picked up the slack for A.J. Griffin and Jarrod Parker (lost for the season), helping Oakland maintain the league's lowest ERA. The lineup, which leads all of baseball in walks and has the second-highest OBP, has been boosted by Josh Donaldson, Jed Lowrie, Coco Crisp, Yoenis Cespedes, and Brandon Moss. The two-time defending AL West champs once again find themselves at the top of the standings and have put themselves in good position to three-peat.

National League
Player of the Month-Troy Tulowitzki
Tulo batted a scorching hot .364/.477/.727 in April to finish the month with the sport's highest OBP, SLG, OPS, and second best batting average (behind teammate Charlie Blackmon). The NL runs scored leader is also tops in bWAR, OPS+. and runs created. He's a big reason why the Rockies are tied with LA for second place in the NL West right now.

Pitcher of the Month-Johnny Cueto
Cincinnati's ace leads both leagues in ERA (with a microscopic 1.15) and innings pitched, as well as complete games, ERA+, and H/9. He also has a 0.77 WHIP, 3.57 K/BB ratio and is striking out more than a batter per inning. He's allowed just six runs in his six starts, all of which have lasted at least seven innings, and his average Game Score thus far is a 76.

Rookie of the Month-Chris Owings
Not a whole lot of NL Rookies contributing right now. Arizona's 22 year-old shortstop is batting a solid .313/.367/.398 with five doubles and four stolen bases. Along with Paul Goldschmidt and Mark Trumbo, he's one of the few bright spots on a disastrous Diamondbacks team.

Team of the Month-Milwaukee Brewers
The Brew Crew boast the best record in baseball at 20-8, largely thanks to their lights-out starting pitching and stellar bullpen work. Four of their five starting pitchers have ERAs below 2.90 (newcomer Matt Garza, at an even 5.00, is lagging behind) with Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, Marco Estrada and Wily Peralta all pitching like aces. The bullpen's been even better; backed by a perfect Francisco Rodriguez (0.00 ERA in 16 appearances) and near-perfect Tyler Thornburg (0.61 in 14), Milwaukee's 'pen has a 2.45 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 4.12 K/BB ratio. Offensively, the Brewers are getting production from multiple sources. Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez are off to MVP-caliber starts, and they're getting plenty of help from Aramis Ramirez, Jonathan Lucroy, and Mark Reynolds.

Abreu's Awesome Start

Abreu is tearing it up in his American debut (ESPN SweetSpot Blog)

When Cuban sensation Jose Abreu signed a six-year, $68 million deal with the Chicago White Sox last winter, we knew he was going to be good. I'm just don't think anyone expected him to be this good. 

After capping last night's three-hit, six-RBI performance with a walk-off grand slam that lifted the Chicago to a 9-6 win over the Tampa Bay Rays, Abreu became the first rookie in major league history to hit nine home runs before the end of April. The 27-year old first baseman now holds a tie of the major leagues in home runs (with a resurgent Albert Pujols), RBI (with Giancarlo Stanton and Chris Colabello), total bases (Pujols again), and extra base hits (with Josh Donaldson). He's also slugging .632, the fourth-highest mark in baseball behind Troy Tulowitzki, Charlie Blackmon, and Pujols.

I know I'm not breaking any new ground here, but it sure looks like he's the real deal, folks. Baseball's next big thing has arrived.

Abreu, who already has three multi-homer games on the young season, has come out swinging for the fences. He's already struck out 25 times in 24 games, and when he does make contact 40 percent of the time he hits it in the air. Nearly a third of his fly balls have left the yard, an unsustainable pace, but with the homer-friendly Cell as his home park he might be able to keep it up for a little longer.

With five home runs and 13 RBI in his past six games, Abreu can't get much hotter. His sizzling start is a big reason why the White Sox are in second place in the AL Central entering play today, and why they've scored the most runs in baseball thus far. It goes without saying that if Abreu can continue to power Chicago's offense, he'll be a lock for AL Rookie of the Year and serious MVP consideration.

But for now, let's see if he can continue adding to his impressive spring numbers. His 27 RBI are tied with Pujols for the most by a rookie in April. So if you've got nothing better to do on a Saturday night, you might as well check-in on Abreu's at-bats. He might just make history.