On July 27th the Angels traded for Zack Greinke, adding the former Cy Young winner to a stacked starting rotation that already included Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, C.J. Wilson and Ervin Santana. At the time, the Halos were four games behind Texas in the AL West and still trying to dig themselves out of the hole created by their 7-15 start. But the Rangers were fading, Albert Pujols was the masher he'd been paid to be and Mike Trout was playing so well that the BBWAA might as well have just handed him the AL MVP trophy right then and there. Surely Greinke would push LA over the top and help get the Angels back to the playoffs for the first time since 2009.
It didn't happen. Los Angeles endured another 7-15 tailspan immediately following the Greinke trade, and they ended the year in third place despite a torrid finish to their season. Greinke initially struggled in his new digs but, to his credit, pitched well down the stretch.
A similar scenario played out across town as the Dodgers, formerly of Brooklyn, made a furious charge for their first postseason appearance in three years. The playoff hungry Bums went all-out to bulk up their roster, trading for Hanley Ramirez and Shane Victorino just before the July 32st deadline, then taking Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and Adrian Gonzalez off Boston's hands in late August. This new blood kept the Dodgers afloat for a few more weeks--they were in first place as late as August 19th--before they plummeted out of the race by dropping 20 of their next 32 games. By the time LA righted the ship it was too late; they had fallen ten games behind the Giants in the standings and missed out on October.
With the bitter taste of disappointment in their mouths, both clubs entered the offseason eyeing Greinke, unquestionably the top starting pitcher on the market. He was going to cost a pretty penny, something close to the $161 million CC Sabathia received from the New York Yankees four years ago. The Rangers were also in the mix, but in the end it was the Dodgers who made Greinke one of the richest pitchers in baseball history by opening up their wallets and giving him a six-year, $147 million deal, the largest contract ever signed by a right-handed pitcher. His annual salary of $24.5 million is the highest ever for a pitcher, falling just short of what Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols bank every year.
No, Greinke didn't quite get Sabathia money, but he came close and will have to settle for Cole Hamels money. That sounds about right considering that Hamels is a good comp for Greinke; they're two months apart in age, have 91 career wins and can be dominant pitchers at their best but aren't what I consider to be elite hurlers.
With the exception of his masterful 2009 when he channeled Justin Verlander and Pedro Martinez, Greinke's been more of a really good number two starter. In the three seasons since, he's got a 3.83 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and a 106 ERA+. Good numbers, but not great. Those looking to nitpick Greinke and/or claim he's not worth the money have no shortage of ammunition. He's a one-time All-Star (got snubbed last summer, but still), has never won more than 16 games in any season and got bombed in his only postseason. He has just three shutouts to his name (all in '09) and hasn't gone the full nine innings since June 13th, 2010. Perhaps the most startling statistic of all is that Baseball-Reference credits him with only 6.7 bWAR since 2010. A player with a nine figure contract should be able to provide that much value in one season, not three.
But Greinke's stellar peripheral numbers suggest that he has pitched better than his ERA indicates. During his time in Kansas City and Milwaukee he was victimized by poor defense, shaky bullpens and plain bad luck. That explains the substantial discrepancy between his FIP, xFIP and ERA in recent years. It goes without saying that the 29 year-old should post better numbers next year in the weaker National League by making half his starts in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, especially when you account for LA's lights-out bullpen and solid D.
It's interesting that LA was willing to go above and beyond for Greinke because pitching was not one of their weaknesses in 2012. In fact, it was one of their strengths. The staff's 3.41 ERA last year ranked third in the majors. Kershaw turned in another Cy Young worthy performance while Aaron Harang, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly and Chris Capuano all produced above average results. But in baseball, you can never have too much pitching. Greinke will be a formidable number two/sidekick to Kershaw, who over the past few years has looked like a Sandy Koufax-in-the-making. I guess that makes Greinke the equivalent of Don Drysdale in that analogy.
However, adding Greinke hikes LA's already bloated payroll up to $210 million, meaning the Dodgers are the most expensive team in baseball, at least for now. The Dodgers have signaled that they're all in, willing win at all costs and do whatever to takes to make the playoffs. No expense will be spared. They're the New Yankees, gobbling up stars and ugly contracts left and right. Heck, if they hadn't just handed Andre Ethier a five-year, $85 million extension, they probably would have shelled out for Josh Hamilton, too. Imagine Hamilton sharing the same outfield with Matt Kemp.
Hey, with the way the Dodgers are spending money lately, it might not be as far-fetched as you think.
No comments:
Post a Comment