How Greinke Got (Over-) Paid

Greinke's LA numbers were better even though he stayed the same (Yahoo Sports)

When Zack Greinke signed his six-year, $147 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers after the 2012 season, he became the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history in terms of annual salary. Now, after opting out of that deal and inking an even bigger one with the Arizona Diamondbacks, he’s the highest-paid player in baseball history in terms of annual salary.

How did Greinke get the same contract length and $60 million more at 32 than he he did at 29? By stringing together three straight dominant seasons in Los Angeles, the last of which was easily the best of his career and, in a normal year, would have earned him his second Cy Young. Greinke’s timing was impeccable, as he hit the open market after posting the lowest ERA (1.66) in 20 years and leading the majors in WHIP (0.84), winning percentage (.864), pitcher WAR (as calculated by Baseball-Reference), and ERA+ (225). His two years before that weren’t too shabby, either, as he posted sub-three ERAs and drew Cy Young votes both years.

But were his last three campaigns really that much better than the three that preceded his Dodgers contract? It depends which stats you use:

2010-2012: 41-25 W-L 3.83 ERA (106 ERA+) 1.22 WHIP .248 BA 8.4 bWAR

2013-2015: 51-15 W-L 2.30 ERA (156 ERA+) 1.03 WHIP .219 BA 17.5 bWAR

By traditional metrics, Greinke was a much better pitcher from ages 29-31 than he was from 26-28, which are supposed to be a player’s prime years. His ERA was a run and a half lower in the same number of innings, which explains why his bWAR more than doubled (B-R bases pitcher WAR off ERA and innings pitched). He won more games, lost fewer, and improved his WHIP and opponent batting average considerably.

Advanced metrics tell another story. Let’s start by looking at the two things pitchers can control, strikeouts and walks. I don’t include home runs because those are heavily influenced by park factors, temperature, air density, wind currents, and a bunch of other things beyond a pitcher’s sphere of influence:

2010-2012: 23.3 K% 6.2 BB%

2013-2015: 23.3 K% 5.4 BB%

Greinke’s strikeout rate remained identical, which one would expect given that nobody gains velocity as they get older. His walk rate improved a bit, which works out to be one fewer walk every two or three starts — hardly a big difference in the grand scheme of things.

People also believe pitchers have control over the type of hits they allow. Has Greinke’s distribution of batted balls become more favorable?

2010-2012: 20.3% LD 47.4% GB 32.3% FB 7.9 % IFFB

2013-2015: 21.8% LD 47.5% GB 30.8% FB 11.1% IFFB

Not really. Greinke’s groundball rate stayed the same, and he offset an increase in line drives with an increase in pop-ups. It’s weird that his line-drive rate went up, seeing as how he induced more soft contact and less hard contact over the past three years:

2010-2012: Soft 17.0% Med 54.7 % Hard 28.3%

2013-2015: Soft 19.3% Med 53.3% Hard 27.6%

Again, not much change, though there is some indication that he’s gotten better at generating weaker contact. Not enough to radically improve his results, mind you, or significantly alter his BABiP (keep that in mind for a minute).

While his ERA doesn’t reflect his stable peripherals, his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA do.

2010-2012: 3.16 FIP 3.17 xFIP 3.26 SIERA

2013-2015: 2.97 FIP 3.12 xFIP 3.23 SIERA

As you can see, fielding-independent metrics support the information above, suggesting Greinke was essentially the same pitcher over the past six years.

So why, then, are his Dodgers numbers so much shinier? Moving to Dodger Stadium (where he has a 2.00 career ERA) and a weaker division gave him a boost. Leaving behind a god-awful defense in Milwaukee helped. Having a better bullpen behind him didn’t hurt.

But also, a lot of it was just pure luck. Greinke was fairly unlucky in the three years before coming to Los Angeles, only to become one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball during his time with the Dodgers. Greinke had the highest strand rate in baseball over the last three years, but from 2010-2012 he had one of the worst. Dodger Stadium and superior defense also helped him on balls in play. From 2010-2012, only Justin Masterson had a higher BABiP among pitchers who threw at least 600 innings. Over the last three years, however, Greinke had the third-lowest BABiP at .271 — roughly 30 points below the league average.

Greinke also had better luck on balls not in play, as in home runs. His HR/FB% dropped almost a full percentage point, which is substantial considering the league average is around 10% (Greinke’s mark from 2010-2012). Accordingly, his HR/9 rate improved by 16 percent. That works out to be only a handful of homers per season, but those long balls can make a serious dent in a pitcher’s ERA if they come with multiple guys on base.

Taking all this into consideration, Greinke is not a better pitcher now than he was three years ago. His park, fielders, and bullpen have made him look like a better pitcher, as has better luck, but at his core he’s the same guy. Here’s one more figure to prove it:

2010-2012: 13.6 fWAR (8th in pitcher fWAR)

2013-2015: 13.6 fWAR (8th in pitcher fWAR)

Greinke is getting paid to be the best pitcher in baseball, even though he’s not. After a few starts in the Arizona heat, that should become abundantly clear.

Cubs Cleaning Up

Arrieta rode a historic second half to his first Cy Young award (MLB.com)

2015 was a pretty good year for the Cubs. Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber had outstanding debuts, Jake Arrieta evolved into one of the best pitchers in baseball, and Joe Maddon worked his usual magic from the dugout, guiding Chicago to 97 wins and the World Series championship that Back to the Future II predicted 26 years ago a postseason berth.

One would think the Cubbies won it all this year, based on how they've fared in the BBWAA awards thus far. On Monday it was announced that Bryant won NL Rookie of the Year unanimously. Tuesday brought the news that Joe Maddon had been named NL Manager of the Year, and Wednesday made it a three-peat when Jake Arrieta was voted NL Cy Young over Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. That streak will end today, however, as Anthony Rizzo doesn't stand a chance against Bryce Harper for NL MVP honors.

As I wrote yesterday, Bryant was an easy choice based on the way he dominated this year's rookie leaderboards. Maddon was also an obvious pick after helming the Cubs--a last place team the last two years--to its first playoff appearance of the Obama administration. 

But Arrieta, as many have written, was not an obvious choice by any stretch. In fact, I'm pretty sure he was the wrong one.

Let me backtrack a bit. There really was no wrong choice for this year's NL Cy Young, as Arrieta, Greinke, and Kershaw were all equally worthy. They all had different things going for them. Arrieta led the majors in wins, complete games, shutouts, hit rate, and home run rate, plus enjoyed the best second half any pitcher has ever had. Greinke was tops in winning percentage, ERA, ERA+, WHIP, and pitcher bWAR. Kershaw tied Arrieta for most complete games and shutouts while registering the most innings, strikeouts, and pitcher fWAR. He also had the major's lowest FIP and National League's best strikeout rate. In the end, who you voted for was a matter of personal taste. 

Since I'm on board with the whole sabermetrics thing, I prefer FIP to ERA. I like lots of strikeouts and few walks. I want to see a low WHIP. And I want to see all of those things sustained over a large workload.

I think you see where I'm going with this. Nobody combined quantity with quality this year like Kershaw. He was the best pitcher in baseball based on things pitchers can control (though I still don't buy the idea that pitchers can control home runs, as that's heavily influenced by weather and ballpark) and threw more innings than anyone else. No pitcher was more valuable, in my eyes, at least. 

I don't mean to take anything away from Arrieta, because he had a Cy-worthy season as well. I just can't help but wonder how the voting would have played out had the Cubs finished last again, or had Greinke not split the vote with his rotationmate (Kershaw wins if you give him half of Greinke's point total). Since it was pretty much impossible to tell which Dodger pitcher was better, that all but guaranteed the award would go to Arrieta--Chicago's clear ace.

I also think it's funny that for the second year in a row, a pitcher rode a big second half to Cy Young glory over a pitcher who I thought was more deserving. Last year saw Corey Kluber edge out Felix Hernandez, and this year Arrieta won despite having a 3.40 ERA through mid-June. It's also interesting that Kluber and Arrieta were both first-time winners who were rewarded for their first season of dominance, whereas Hernandez and Kershaw had both won before with superior seasons. I'm sure there are some voters out there who'd rather not vote for the same guy year after year, who instead try to pick the player with the better narrative. That's why Josh Donaldson will beat out Mike Trout for AL MVP, even though Trout's numbers are better than Donaldson's as well as the ones he posted during his MVP campaign last year.

Keuchel shut out the Yankees in the AL Wild Card game (MLB.com)

While big second halves helped Kluber and Arrieta capture their first Cy Young awards, a strong finishing kick did not help David Price secure his second.

I was both surprised and happy to see Dallas Keuchel eek by David Price in the American League. I thought Price would win after sparking Toronto's second-half turnaround, essentially pitching them to the postseason the way CC Sabathia did Milwaukee in 2008. I guess that's karma for Price stealing the 2012 Cy Young that Justin Verlander deserved. 

Of course, Keuchel was every bit as instrumental as Price in helping his team reach the playoffs. He was the American League's most valuable pitcher per bWAR (FanGraphs had Chris Sale, which I don't buy considering he threw 23 fewer innings with an ERA nearly a full run higher) and led the league in a host of categories, including innings, shutouts, ERA+, WHIP, and wins. 

Keuchel "won" 20 regular season games--the only AL starter to do so--but that total doesn't include Houston's most important game of the season--a do-or-die, single elimination game at Yankee Stadium for the right to advance to the ALDS. Keuchel was masterful, spinning six shutout innings and limiting the Bombers to just three hits in his first-ever postseason start. He was equally dominant in his lone ALDS turn, stifling the Royals to one run over seven frames as he helped Houston come within one win of the ALCS. That proved to be Keuchel's last start of 2015, as the Astros never got that last win.

I don't mean to say that Price would have been a poor pick. His numbers were nearly identical to Keuchel's, so as in the NL it was a toss-up. For me it was innings--Keuchel threw 11 and 2/3 more, or about a start and a half--that made Keuchel the superior candidate. That doesn't sound like much over the course of a season, but when you consider that Houston won the second wild card by one game over the Angels, those dozen innings might have been the difference. No American League starter had more of an impact than Keuchel, who led the loop in batters faced, and nobody was definitively better. Price was just as good, but he simply wasn't as dominant; the only stat he led in was ERA--by 0.03 over Keuchel, which of course means nothing over 162 games.

In both leagues the voters had to split hairs. I think they split the right ones in the AL but the wrong ones in the NL. 

NL Awards Preview: Can Kershaw Repeat?

Who deserves the NL MVP? That's a clown question, bro (CBS Sports)

First let me apologize, for the title and picture above are a little misleading. While technically an awards (plural) preview, 90 percent of this piece is devoted to the controversial Cy Young race. Whereas all three AL races are virtual toss-ups, the only tight one in the NL is for the Cy Young award, though it might be the closest I've ever seen. The MVP award has belonged to Bryce Harper since May, and Kris Bryant pulled ahead of Joc Pederson for rookie of the year honors months ago. That leaves us with the NL Cy Young, which could go to one of three candidates, two of whom are teammates.

You could argue any of them for MVP as well, but you really have to bend over backwards to find a way not to elect Bryce Harper. Because let's face it; Harper has been the league's undisputed MVP since Memorial Day. Head over to the NL leaderboards, and you'll see Harper's name in numerous top spots. Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs both rated him as the most valuable player in baseball per wins above replacement, which you might have figured based on his major league-leading .460 OBP, .649 slugging, 1.109 OPS, and 195 OPS+. The Nats were massive busts, they don't stay in contention into September without Harper's monster season.

The Rookie of the Year is also a foregone conclusion, having been Kris Bryant's to lose since his big league debut. Joc Pederson hung with him throughout the first half, only to tail off after the All-Star Break as his flaws became exposed. His 26 home runs, .346 OBP, and .206 ISO are nothing to sneeze at for a rookie center fielder, but his defense leaves a lot to be desired and he doesn't have make an impact with his legs the way most center fielders do (Mike Trout he is not).

Bryant's OPS was nearly 100 points higher than Pederson's, still a sizable advantage even after accounting for their home parks. Like Pederson he struck out a lot, but unlike Pederson he did more than just hit home runs when he made contact. He would have knocked in 100 runs had he been given his rightful place on the Opening Day roster, played a solid third base, and was actually a really good baserunner--with 13 steals and nearly a win's worth of value on the basespaths. More than just a slugger, he turned out to be a well-rounded player.

So yeah, if you choose anyone other than Harper and Bryant for these two awards, then you need to have your head examined. But the NL Cy Young race is the closest one in recent memory. Often times two candidates have very similar numbers, as Felix Hernandez and Corey Kluber did last year or Clayton Kershaw and R.A. Dickey did in 2012, but it's quite rare that a trio of pitchers post nearly identical stat lines, as Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Jake Arrieta did this year. They finished top-three in WAR, ERA, and WHIP, among several other advanced stats. How on earth do you choose?

Joe Posnanski's right; I think who you vote for here says something about what you value in pitchers. If you value wins and strong second half performances, then Arrieta's your guy. If you stress run prevention and keeping runners off the bases, then you go Greinke. If you're all about defense-independent metrics, i.e. strikeouts and FIP, then awarding Kershaw his third straight Cy.

Wins are a garbage stat, so while it's cool that Arrieta racked up 22 of them, that honestly doesn't mean a thing to me. He could have won 12 and his candidacy wouldn't change in my eyes. I also don't buy into the whole reward someone for a big second half thing, since every game counts the same regardless of when it's played (in the regular season, that is). So while it's neat that he had the lowest second-half ERA ever, that doesn't strengthen his case in my eyes.

Where I do think Arrieta's being underrated is that he had the lowest hit and home run rate in the majors despite contending with Wrigley's friendly confines in half his starts. That's damn impressive given the way the ball flies there during the summer. It's equally impressive that his ERA was virtually identical to Greinke's, considering that a) Greinke calls Dodger Stadium home and b) the NL Central was the toughest division in baseball this year with three 90 win teams. Arrieta's environment was much more conducive to offense, and yet he allowed runs at nearly the same rate as Greinke. Arrieta also logged more innings, racked up more strikeouts, and compiled a lower FIP.

Still the best pitcher on the planet, Kershaw deserves his fourth Cy (My Weekly Sports)

According to FanGraphs, the only pitcher more valuable than Arrieta was Greinke's teammate Kershaw. That's because FG makes pitcher valuations based off DIPS, whereas B-R assesses pitchers based on how well they prevented runs. Since we know the latter is largely beyond a pitcher's control, influenced by a multitude of factors such as the weather, ballpark, hit sequencing, bad hops, defense behind him, and relievers that come in after him, I don't feel comfortable relying on ERA as a guide. I give more weight to stats like FIP and xFIP, which judge pitchers based on things they have more (but not total) control over; home runs, walks, and strikeouts.

By those measures, Kershaw comes out on top. His 1.99 FIP was the best in the majors, and his xFIP was right in line with last year's. Part of the reason both were so good was that he struck out 301 batters, becoming the first pitcher since 2002 to exceed 300 K's in a season. He also led the majors in innings pitched--an underrated stat--as well as complete games and shutouts, which I value because those are almost always wins.

As Jonah Keri wrote yesterday, the most useful stat in settling this whole debate is probably Deserved Run Average (DRA), created by the folks over at Baseball Prospectus. An all-encompassing stat similar to pitcher WAR (but better), DRA captures a pitcher's overall contribution to his team. By that metric, Kershaw is number one, though it's awfully close.

No matter how you slice it, it's a ridiculously tough call. There really should be a three-way tie, because they're all equally worthy. To pick one you have to split hairs, and depending on which hairs you split you'll get your answer. Mine is Kershaw, but yours probably isn't, and that's okay. I'm not trying to tell you why Greinke and Arrieta are the wrong choices, because they're not. There is no wrong choice. I just happen to think Kershaw's the best choice, and only by the slimmest of margins.

MLB September Storylines

Dodger aces Greinke (L) and Kershaw are players to follow in September (ESPN)

Labor Day weekend is upon us (seriously, how did that happen?), which means there's but one month left of the regular season. Even with most of the divisions and playoff races already decided, several exciting stories have yet to be played out. Will the Blue Jays win their division, thus ending the longest postseason drought in American professional sports? Can Houston hang on in the AL West? And just who is going to put themselves over the top in various award races?

Even if your team is toast and you can't wait for football to start, there's still enough going on to keep fans engaged into October. Here's a sample:

1. David Ortiz's march to 500 home runs
It's been another tough year for the Red Sox but another great one for Ortiz, who's closing in on his 500th career long ball. He has five to go which, given his feverish home run pace (23 taters in his last 70 games), shouldn't take too long.

2. Clayton Kershaw's quest for 300 strikeouts
As Jeff Sullivan noted yesterday, Kershaw's up to 251 K's on the year after fanning 15 Giants in Wednesday night's masterpiece. With five or six starts remaining, he has a chance to become the first pitcher since 2002 to eclipse 300 punchouts. If he does that, a third straight Cy Young award may be in the cards.

3. AL East showdown
As always, the AL East has become a dogfight between its top two teams, one being the Yankees of course. For once, however, the other combatant isn't Boston. It's the Blue Jays, currently clinging to a 1.5 game lead over the Bombers. Toronto will get every opportunity to widen the gap down the stretch with the rest of its games coming against sub-.500 teams and New York.  The Yankees have a similarly easy slate, however, so it wouldn't be surprising to see first place change hands several times over the next month.

4. How will the West be Won?
The fate of the AL West is still up in the air, for it's the only division where the third place team isn't more than 10 games out. It has been turned completely upside down this year, with Houston and Texas (both losers of 90+ games last year) rising to the top while Oakland and Seattle (winners of 88 and 87, respectively) sinking to the bottom. In between are last year's division champs--the Angels--still trying to find their way. LA's coming off a terrible August but could catch up if they play like they did in July. Houston's had control of first place for most of the year, but now find themselves holding on for dear life with a two game edge over the surging Rangers. So hold your breath, Astros fans, and don't exhale until this time next month.

5. Who will snag the second AL wild card?
The Pirates and Cubs have both NL wild card spots wrapped up, and whoever loses the Yankees-Blue Jays duel is guaranteed the first wild card in the AL. The second wild card berth, however, is very much up for grabs. Texas currently leads by one game over Minnesota, with Los Angeles and Tampa Bay looming not far behind. The Twins and Angels are fading fast, while the Rangers have rolled since trading for Cole Hamels. Fingers crossed for a tie, which would mean a play-in game for the play-in game!

6. Will Washington pull it together?
It's now or never for the Nats, who've hovered around .500 all summer and allowed the Mets to break away. They're still close enough (six games) that Washington could steal the division out from under them with a huge September, but time is dwindling. Which team will the Nationals be this month: the one that everyone predicted to win 100 games or the one that might wind up with a losing record? I say they finish strong but still miss the playoffs.

7. St. Louis shoots for 100
Improved parity has made 100-win teams increasingly rare--there were none in each of the past three seasons. Only one team has a legitimate shot to do it this year, and it's not the preseason favorites. The best team in baseball this year has been the St. Louis Cardinals, currently 86-47 and steaming towards their third straight division title. With 29 games remaining on their schedule, the Redbirds need only go .500 to reach the century mark.

8. Does anyone get to 50 homers?
There have been just two instances of a player surpassing 50 home runs during the past seven seasons, but it's possible we'll see two or more players crack that many this year. Nelson Cruz--last year's long ball champion and the current major league leader--needs 11 to get there while Chris Davis--the last to break the 50 barrier--is a dozen away. Look for Carlos Gonzalez, who's cranked 31 over the last three months, to make a run as well.

9. Award races
The AL MVP was seemingly Mike Trout's to lose until about a month ago, at which point he and his Angels went in the toilet while Josh Donaldson and the Blue Jays took off. Now Donaldson appears to have the upper hand, but that could change in an instant if Trout gets back to being himself and leads LA to the playoffs. The NL MVP belongs to Bryce Harper no matter how often Joey Votto reaches base, but Zack Greinke could become the second straight Dodger pitcher to win it if he continues to be lights-out in September.

Speaking of Greinke, he and Kershaw will duke it out for the NL Cy Young award. Wonder which Dodger (and former Cy) voters prefer; Greinke with his sparkling ERA or Kershaw and his gaudy strikeout totals and only slightly less-sparkling ERA? The AL trophy is probably going to Dallas Keuchel (who saw that one coming?), but don't count Chris Sale out just yet.

The AL Rookie of the Year race is a tight one too, with Carlos Correa, Miguel Sano, and Andrew Heaney all having strong cases. The NL field is a two-horse race between Joc Pederson and Kris Bryant, though Noah Syndergaard deserves consideration as well.

10. September call-ups
No matter where your team falls in the standings, it's worth checking in on them throughout September as their future stars get a first taste of the big leagues. For instance, Corey Seager made his major league debut last night.

13 Bold Predictions for 2013

1. The Boston Red Sox make the playoffs
Why this is bold: The Red Sox lost 93 games last year and haven't won a postseason game since 2008. They improved during the offseason but failed to land the kind of high-impact player capable of adding six or seven wins to a roster by himself.

2. The New York Yankees miss the playoffs
Why this is bold: The Bronx bombers are October mainstays, having reached the postseason 17 times in the past 18 years. They won 95 games last year and enter 2013 with the highest payroll in the American League, a deep starting rotation and a veteran lineup loaded with All-Stars at almost every position.

3. B.J. Upton goes 30/30
Why this is bold: Upton's combination of power and speed is tantalizing, but he's yet to put together a 30/30 season. His power is trending upward but the fact remains that he's averaged just 18 home runs per season over the last five. Furthermore, his stolen base totals have decreased in each of the last two years, falling from 42 in 2010 to 36 in 2011 and 31 in 2012. I'm probably picking the wrong Upton.

4. Mariano Rivera leads the American League in saves
Why this is bold: The greatest closer of all time spent most of 2012 recovering from knee surgery after shredding his ACL while shagging fly balls during batting practice. Signed a one-year deal worth $10 million to return in 2013, but he's 43 years-old and Father Time is going to catch up to him at some point.

5. The Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Indians both have winning records
Why this is bold: Neither team had a winning record last year (or in 2011, or 2010, for that matter). The Mariners face stiff competition in the AL West, arguably the toughest division in baseball with LA, Oakland, and Texas all capable of winning 90+ ballgames. Furthermore, the two clubs haven't enjoyed winning seasons in the same year since 2007.

6. Dan Haren wins 20 games
Why this is bold: Haren's career high for wins is 16. Also, he's 32 years-old and coming off his worst full season as a pro.

7. Nick Swisher hits fewer than 20 home runs
Why this is bold: Since becoming an everyday player in 2005, Swish has never failed to smack less than 21 home runs in a season (averaging 26 per year). He's one of just six players who can claim that; the others are  Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Alfonso Soriano, Mark Teixeira, and David Ortiz.

8. Michael Young bats over .300
Why this is bold: Young is 36 and coming off his worst season in over a decade after batting just .277/.312/.370. He's batted below .285 in two of the past three years and seems to have entered the decline phase of his career. It certainly doesn't help that he's leaving the Ballpark in Arlington, where he batted .320 as opposed to .283 everywhere else.

9 Zack Greinke wins the NL Cy Young award
Why this is bold: Since winning the 2009 AL Cy Young in a landslide, Greinke's compiled a 3.83 ERA and has failed to receive a single vote for the award. Plus, he has formidable competition in his own rotation in the form of Clayton Kershaw.

10. Jim Johnson and Fernando Rodney combined have fewer saves than the AL saves leader
Why this is bold: Johnson led the major leagues with 51 saves last year, and Rodney was right behind him with 48.

11. Bryce Harper is better than Mike Trout
Why this is bold: The AL Rookie of the Year outproduced the NL Rookie of the Year in almost every conceivable metric last year.

12. Derek Jeter plays in fewer than 100 games
Why this is bold: Jeter may not be Cal Ripken Jr., but he's borderline indestructible. The Yankee legend has averaged 151 games played per year since winning the AL Rookie of the Year award in 1996, playing at least 148 games every year except for two (2003 and 2011).

13. The Toronto Blue Jays won't win the World Series
Why this is bold: Everyone's picking the bolstered Blue Jays to win the Fall Classic after a busy offseason in which Toronto added R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Melky Cabrera without giving up any of their established talent.

King Felix Collects

It must feel pretty good being king.

Felix Hernandez is getting a five-year contract extension worth $135.5 million on top of the two years/$39.5 million remaining on his current deal. The extension makes him the highest paid pitcher by yearly salary, surpassing Zack Greinke--who held the title for all of two months--and falls in line with recent deals handed out to David Wright, Cole Hamels, and Josh Hamilton.

Handing out nine-figure contracts to starting pitchers is always risky, but locking up the 2010 AL Cy Young winner for the rest of the decade should prove to be a sound investment for the Mariners. When he's on, Hernandez is one of the best pitchers in the game today, every bit as good as Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw. Look no further than his perfect game last summer, the 23rd in major league history, as proof of what he's capable of every time he takes the mound.

The three-time All-Star is also one of the most durable starters around. Nobody's thrown more innings over the past four years. In that same span he has the second best ERA (behind Kershaw) and third most strikeouts (behind Verlander and Tim Lincecum). Better yet, the soon-to-be-27-year-old is in the heart of his prime and should have several more elite seasons ahead of him.

In related news, Hernandez decided to sit out this year's World Baseball Classic and will not pitch for Venezuela in the international tournament.

Dodgers Get Greinke

Four months ago the Los Angeles Angels won the Zack Greinke sweepstakes. This time around, the other baseball team in Hollywood got him.

On July 27th the Angels traded for Zack Greinke, adding the former Cy Young winner to a stacked starting rotation that already included Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, C.J. Wilson and Ervin Santana. At the time, the Halos were four games behind Texas in the AL West and still trying to dig themselves out of the hole created by their 7-15 start. But the Rangers were fading, Albert Pujols was the masher he'd been paid to be and Mike Trout was playing so well that the BBWAA might as well have just handed him the AL MVP trophy right then and there. Surely Greinke would push LA over the top and help get the Angels back to the playoffs for the first time since 2009.

It didn't happen. Los Angeles endured another 7-15 tailspan immediately following the Greinke trade, and they ended the year in third place despite a torrid finish to their season. Greinke initially struggled in his new digs but, to his credit, pitched well down the stretch.

A similar scenario played out across town as the Dodgers, formerly of Brooklyn, made a furious charge for their first postseason appearance in three years.  The playoff hungry Bums went all-out to bulk up their roster, trading for Hanley Ramirez and Shane Victorino just before the July 32st deadline, then taking Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and Adrian Gonzalez off Boston's hands in late August. This new blood kept the Dodgers afloat for a few more weeks--they were in first place as late as August 19th--before they plummeted out of the race by dropping 20 of their next 32 games. By the time LA righted the ship it was too late; they had fallen ten games behind the Giants in the standings and missed out on October.

With the bitter taste of disappointment in their mouths, both clubs entered the offseason eyeing Greinke, unquestionably the top starting pitcher on the market. He was going to cost a pretty penny, something close to the $161 million CC Sabathia received from the New York Yankees four years ago. The Rangers were also in the mix, but in the end it was the Dodgers who made Greinke one of the richest pitchers in baseball history by opening up their wallets and giving him a six-year, $147 million deal, the largest contract ever signed by a right-handed pitcher. His annual salary of $24.5 million is the highest ever for a pitcher, falling just short of what Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols bank every year.

No, Greinke didn't quite get Sabathia money, but he came close and will have to settle for Cole Hamels money. That sounds about right considering that Hamels is a good comp for Greinke; they're two months apart in age, have 91 career wins and can be dominant pitchers at their best but aren't what I consider to be elite hurlers.

With the exception of his masterful 2009 when he channeled Justin Verlander and Pedro Martinez, Greinke's been more of a really good number two starter. In the three seasons since, he's got a 3.83 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and a 106 ERA+. Good numbers, but not great. Those looking to nitpick Greinke and/or claim he's not worth the money have no shortage of ammunition. He's a one-time All-Star (got snubbed last summer, but still), has never won more than 16 games in any season and got bombed in his only postseason. He has just three shutouts to his name (all in '09) and hasn't gone the full nine innings since June 13th, 2010. Perhaps the most startling statistic of all is that Baseball-Reference credits him with only 6.7 bWAR since 2010. A player with a nine figure contract should be able to provide that much value in one season, not three.

But Greinke's stellar peripheral numbers suggest that he has pitched better than his ERA indicates. During his time in Kansas City and Milwaukee he was victimized by poor defense, shaky bullpens and plain bad luck. That explains the substantial discrepancy between his FIP, xFIP and ERA in recent years. It goes without saying that the 29 year-old should post better numbers next year in the weaker National League by making half his starts in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, especially when you account for LA's lights-out bullpen and solid D.

It's interesting that LA was willing to go above and beyond for Greinke because pitching was not one of their weaknesses in 2012. In fact, it was one of their strengths. The staff's 3.41 ERA last year ranked third in the majors. Kershaw turned in another Cy Young worthy performance while Aaron Harang, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly and Chris Capuano all produced above average results. But in baseball, you can never have too much pitching. Greinke will be a formidable number two/sidekick to Kershaw, who over the past few years has looked like a Sandy Koufax-in-the-making. I guess that makes Greinke the equivalent of Don Drysdale in that analogy.

However, adding Greinke hikes LA's already bloated payroll up to $210 million, meaning the Dodgers are the most expensive team in baseball, at least for now. The Dodgers have signaled that they're all in, willing win at all costs and do whatever to takes to make the playoffs. No expense will be spared. They're the New Yankees, gobbling up stars and ugly contracts left and right. Heck, if they hadn't just handed Andre Ethier a five-year, $85 million extension, they probably would have shelled out for Josh Hamilton, too. Imagine Hamilton sharing the same outfield with Matt Kemp.

Hey, with the way the Dodgers are spending money lately, it might not be as far-fetched as you think.

Red Sox Nation Regroups

The 2012 Boston Red Sox season was an unmitigated disaster.

The Red Sox opened the season with a bloated $173 million payroll, third highest in the major leagues behind only the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies. Boston ended the season with 93 losses and the third worst record in the American League.

They bottomed out. As an encore for their historic September flop, the Red Sox  finished last in the division and endured their worst season since the 1965 edition lost 100 games. From August 1st until the end of the regular season, Boston went 16-42 and had the worst record in baseball.

But what went wrong? How did a squad that won 90 games in 2011 tank so badly?

Tufts junior Josh Weiner blames Boston’s reckless spending habits. He believes the team invested “too much money on players who failed to deliver and failed to develop any kind of meaningful cohesion."

The lack of camaraderie that emerged during their collapse carried over into 2012. This team had zero chemistry, a far cry from the brotherhood so readily apparent on the 2004 World Series winners. When Buster Olney reported that Boston's dysfunctional clubhouse had become toxic in the middle of June, he merely confirmed the obvious.

Instead of bringing his fractured team together, Bobby Valentine drove them apart. The fiery skipper was at odds with his players and coaches from the start. He said all the wrong things and became a lightning rod for controversy. "Fire Bobby V" became the rallying cry of Red Sox Nation. The front office mercifully cut ties with Valentine as soon as the season ended.

"The fiasco that was Bobby Valentine's tenure as manager has now, smartly, been terminated," said Weiner.

Valentine made a bad situation worse, but he wasn't at fault for how Boston's season turned out. Injuries devastated his roster, and the players who stayed healthy underperformed. The outfield was so decimated that the front office resorted to bringing in the likes of Marlon Byrd and Scott Podsednik to plug the leaks. The Red Sox were never at full strength.

As the team faded out of the playoff picture in August, it became evident that some sort of drastic, sweeping change was necessary to revitalize the sagging franchise. So General Manager Ben Cherington pulled the trigger on the biggest move of his young career. With one blockbuster trade, he managed to reshape the roster and shed more than $260 million in future salary commitments. The Red Sox said goodbye and good riddance to Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford and Nick Punto.

At the time, Cherington defended the trade by stressing the need for a more disciplined approach. This strategy Boston has prevented from entering the Josh Hamilton sweepstakes, but lifelong Massachusetts resident Glen Krebs is fine with that. “Making a run at Josh Hamilton would go against everything that Ben Cherington has tried to remake the Red Sox as," he said. "Their strategy this offseason should be to sign high-impact low-risk role players who can contribute immediately this season, along with continuing to develop prospects for the long term."

So far Cherington has kept his word. He's refrained from throwing money at pricey free agents. Instead, he's taken care of some team housekeeping by trading Mike Aviles for John Farrell, re-signing David Ortiz and filling out the coaching staff. Nothing splashy, but important moves nevertheless.

There is still plenty of work to be done, however, and Cherington has a busy winter ahead of him. Adrian Gonzalez left a gaping hole at first base that needs to be filled ASAP. The team has targeted Mike Napoli and seems likely to sign him within the coming weeks. He'd be a great fit because he's a right-handed slugger who can take advantage of Fenway Park's Green Monster. Cherington also has to decide who will play alongside Jacoby Ellsbury in the outfield next year. Ellsbury is fast, but he can't cover the entire outfield by himself. The Sox should bring back Cody Ross to play left and get a Nick Swisher type in right.

Starting pitching should be the top priority given how poorly the rotation performed last year; its 5.19 ERA was the worst in team history. Matt Prescott, a sophomore at St. Michael's. would like to see the Sox "model their team around the San Francisco Giants" because the World Series champs, led by Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum and Ryan Vogelsong, "proved that pitching can carry a team to a championship."

It’s no secret the Red Sox need more frontline starters to bolster their thin rotation. The team lacks a true number one starter to lead the staff, and elite pitchers don't grow on trees. The only bona fide ace on the market is former Cy Young winner Zack Greinke, but he figures to command something close to the seven year, $161 million contract CC Sabathia inked with the Yankees in 2008. Beyond Greinke, there's a bevy of solid veteran starters with proven track records such as Anibal Sanchez, Edwin Jackson, Dan Haren, Kyle Lohse, and Ryan Dempster. Sanchez is too pricey, but the others should be affordable.

Regardless of how the Red Sox fill out their roster, they will be hard-pressed to contend next year, The AL East is shaping up to be the most competitive division in baseball. The Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, and Baltimore Orioles all won at least 90 games last year, plus the Toronto Blue Jays just raided the Miami Marlins for a trio of All-Stars in Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes and Josh Johnson. It's going to be a crowded field next year.

Though their competition looks formidable, the Red Sox still have enough talent to contend.  Their core of Ellsbury, Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Will Middlebrooks, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Felix Doubront, Andrew Bailey, John Lackey and Daniel Bard remains intact (for now). With a restocked farm system and the right moves to complement this nucleus, Boston could be a dangerous team in 2013. Weiner is optimistic that the Red Sox “are poised to learn from their mistakes” and will “once again become the surefire playoff contender we all expected.”

It's too early to tell. Championships aren’t won on paper in December. They’re won on the ballfield in October.

But for now, Red Sox fans can take solace in the fact that their team has nowhere to go but up.