Cubs Team to Beat

The revamped Cubs could win 100 games next year (CBS Chicago)

The Chicago Cubs didn't have to make any major splashes this offseason. They could have consolidated after winning 97 games last year, banking on improvement from youngsters like Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber to cover decline from aging veterans and departing talent. The Cubs would have been completely justified in making a few minor tweaks and leaving their roster as is, letting their young core blossom into perennial contenders..

Instead, Chicago has been the most active team in free agency thus far. They dipped their toe into this year's deep talent pool by poaching John Lackey away from the Cardinals. Then they stole Ben Zobrist from a market that underrates his skills.

But those deals were mere appetizers for the main course, which was served last Friday. Chicago capped a whirlwind week by picking St. Louis's pocket yet again, wooing Jason Heyward from their division rivals.

In just one week, the balance of power shifted not only in the NL Central, but all of baseball. The Cubs have established themselves as the team to beat next year, a team with 100-win potential. That's why Heyward turned down more money to play elsewhere. He wants to be on the World Series favorites.

I already wrote about how much I like the Lackey deal--a short-term bet on one of the game's better starting pitchers--so now please indulge me as I examine the Zobrist and Heyward deals.

At four years and $56 million, Zobrist is a veritable bargain in spite of his age (he'll be 35 in the spring). Consider that last year, Victor Martinez got more money over the same number of years despite being a) one year older when he signed his contract and b) a full-time designated hitter. Nelson Cruz, another DH-type, got virtually the same contract, and while his has worked out so far it will get ugly fast if his home run power disappears, which can happen overnight for a player his age.

Zobrist has been much better than either of those guys and is younger, He's quietly been the fifth-most valuable position player in baseball over the past seven seasons, out-WAR'ing all but the game's truest superstars (Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, and Andrew McCutchen). While his defense went south last year and he didn't make the same impact on the bases that he usually does, at least part of that can be blamed on his midseason knee surgery. His balky knee didn't slow his bat, however, which remained as robust as ever despite injuries and a midseason trade to Kansas City.

Even if his defense and baserunning never recover, Zobrist will earn his paycheck as long as he keeps hitting like last year, when he was worth $16.4 million basically on his bat alone. If his hitting starts to slow too, however, then he'll be a bust. But seeing as how he's showed no signs of slowing down at the plate, the Cubs have no reason to worry just yet.

It was fitting that the deal for a long under-appreciated player was soon overshadowed by a monster contract attached to a much bigger name. Jason Heyward has been a breakoit candidate ever since scouts compared his likeness to Ken Griffey, Jr. during his rookie season. Heyward has failed to live up to those lofty expectations, instead settling into something just shy of a superstar. Skill-wise, he falls into the same category as Zobrist and Alex Gordon, but with the added benefit of being much, much younger.

Heyward is the rare free agent whose prime years are just about to begin rather than come to an end. So if Zobrist--the former type of player--is a bargain, Heyward's an absolute steal. Heyward has been one of the dozen-best position players in baseball since beginning his career in 2010 (notice the player right above him on that list). He's an excellent baserunner, a three-time Gold Glove winner, and a solid hitter. It's not worth discussing whether he'll be worth the eight years and $184 million (spoiler alert: he will be) because he'll opt out by the end of the decade, but when he does you can bet it will be for as much as or more than what he just accepted.

What's funny is that Zobrist and Heyward are essentially the same player. They both walk a lot, hit for medium power, have a bit of speed, and are plus defenders. While not great at any one thing, they are good at everything, and that's what makes them so valuable. Zobrist has played every position save pitcher and catcher, while Heyward can play anywhere in the outfield.

The Cubs seem likely to install the latter in center field, where he's only played sporadically. Still, Heyward can't be much worse than the man he's replacing out there--Dexter Fowler, who's provided positive defensive value just twice in his eight year-career according to Baseball-Reference. Thanks to his youth and athleticism, Heyward's one of the few corner outfielders capable of making the transition to center, as usually players go the other way.

So forget the Royals; the Cubs are baseball's model franchise. Their whip-smart front office has assembled a juggernaut around solid drafting, saavy free agent signings, and great trades. As for their latest spending spree, the rest of baseball should take note. If you're going to spend close to $300 million on free agents, this is the way to do it. Not, you know, how the Red Sox do it.

Sox Sign Young

Young will be a nice complementary piece for Boston (Newsday)

Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski made his second major move of the offseason yesterday, inking Chris Young to a two-year, $13 million deal.

The pact is a reasonable one for Young, 32 and a fourth outfielder at this stage in his career. More importantly, it adds depth to Boston's young outfield, which is relying on the inexperienced trio of Mookie Betts, Rusney Castillo, and Jackie Bradley, Jr. (less than 2,000 major league plate appearances between them).

A lefty-mashing righthanded power-hitter, Young fits the Jonny Gomes/Cody Ross type that tends to do well in Boston. Now on his fifth team in five seasons, he has proven he can handle big market pressure after two years in New York. Young was a fixture in the Yankees outfield last year, playing 140 games and posting a 112 OPS+. That stability was huge for the depleted Bombers, who still made the playoffs despite losing two-thirds of their outfield (Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran) for extended periods of time.

Young earned consistent playing time with his strong start, slugging six home runs and putting up a 1.084 OPS through his first 22 games. The streaky slugger fell off the rest of the way, but that didn't discourage Joe Girardi from getting him into the lineup almost everyday.

Young isn't going to be a difference maker, but he's shown he can play a key role on a contender. It's very likely that the Red Sox will need him, as it's easy to envision a scenario where Bradley slumps his way back to the minors, Castillo is still too raw to play everyday, and/or Betts struggles in his second full season. At the very least he'll spell one of those guys' names when they need a breather and pop a few homers over the Monster. He'll earn his keep even if he's only one win above replacement level, which is how many he's averaged over the past four years.

Nice move, Dave. Now go get David Price.

MLB Offseason Losers

The Giants will not be repeating in 2015 (Live4SportNetwork)

Earlier today I weighed in on the teams that I felt improved the most this winter. Now it's time to look at the ones that really dropped the ball.

Atlanta Braves
The Braves slumped from 96 wins in 2013 to 79 wins last year, then promptly blew up their team. Gone are three of their top position players--Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, and Evan Gattis--as well as Ervin Santana. Good thing they shelled out $44 million for Nick Markakis, though.

Kansas City Royals
The Royals celebrated their first postseason trip since 1985 by blowing three years and $33 million on Alex Rios and Edinson Volquez--a fourth outfielder and poor starting pitcher. A small market team like Kansas City can't afford to burn money like that, especially considering they weren't even really that good last year (pythag W-L was 84-78). They also lost James Shields, easily their best starting pitcher. Expect the Royals to finish closer to 80 wins than 90 this year.

New York Mets
The Mets were almost a .500 team last year without Matt Harvey, and with a few key upgrades could have established themselves as the clear no. 2 team in the NL East behind the Nationals (who are absolutely stacked, by the way). Instead, all they did was sign Michael Cuddyer, which is probably going to work out about as well as those Jason Bay and Curtis Granderson signings did. The Mets may play in a big market, but they certainly don't act like it.

Philadelphia Phillies
The Phils traded Jimmy Rollins, which was a start, but have failed to trade either Ryan Howard or Cole Hamels. Howard's a tough sell, but Hamels would net Philadelphia a bevy of prospects. So would Cliff Lee. The Phillies still have too much veteran talent for a team in desperate need of a rebuild/youth movement/whatever you want to call it when a team needs to make itself worse in order to get better.

San Francisco Giants
The Giants didn't do much besides re-signing Jake Peavy and Sergio Romo. Being inactive would typically be forgivable considering they just won it all (again), but there's a big difference between a 98-win powerhouse and an 88-win wild card team, which is what the Giants were last year. With Los Angeles and San Diego both getting better, San Francisco really couldn't afford to stand pat, especially after overtaxing their best pitcher (the one and only Madison Bumgarner) during their championship run and losing one of their best hitters in Pablo Sandoval afterwards. They also missed out on James Shields, Jon Lester, and everyone else they were in on this winter. I'd bet a lot of money that they miss the playoffs next year.

Dishonorable Mentions: Colorado Rockies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers

MLB Offseason Winners

The Padres added a ton of talent this winter (UT San Diego)

With spring training just days away, it's time to take stock of what teams did over the past few months and crown this winter's winners and losers. Here are the five most-improved teams in my opinion.

Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox added a lot of punch to what was a woefully thin offense last year, inking two of the market's top hitters in Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. They also overhauled their rotation, trading for Rick Porcello and Wade Miley in addition to signing Justin Masterson. After losing 91 games and finishing last in the AL East in 2014, Boston's back to being one of the best teams in baseball.

Chicago Cubs
An 89-loss team last year, the youthful Cubbies enter 2015 on the brink of contention. Their abundant young talent is about to bloom, and they brought in a good deal of veteran talent by landing Jon Lester, bringing back Jason Hammel, and trading for Dexter Fowler as well as Miguel Montero. Look for Chicago to make a big leap forward this year and challenge St. Louis for the NL Central crown.

Chicago White Sox
The White Sox made several good moves this winter that should at least get them over .500 after dropping 89 games a year ago. The Jeff Samardzija trade gives them a formidable top of the rotation alongside Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, and the offense should be better with Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche on board. I don't like the White Sox as much as their crosstown rivals, but both teams project to be relevant for the first time in a while.

San Diego Padres
No team upgraded more this offseason than the Padres, who signed James Shields last week to cap their busiest winter in recent memory. Shields should thrive in Petco Park and the offense looks dynamite after trades for Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Derek Norris, and Will Middlebrooks. Yes, their outfield defense looks terrible and their infield might be atrocious, but San Diego should be able to take advantage of a relatively weak NL West outside of the Dodgers.

Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays committed to their win-now approach by signing Russell Martin--a top-five catcher--and trading for Josh Donaldson--one of baseball's best players period. Both should benefit from the homer-friendly conditions in Toronto and will join with Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jose Reyes to form an incredibly lethal lineup. The Jays have underachieved the past two years, but I think this is the year they finally break through and make some noise in the AL East.

Honorable Mentions: Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami Marlins

MLB Offseason Losers

Here are five teams that didn't do so hot during Hot Stove season:

1. Cincinnati Reds
Cincy lost one of their top offensive players in Shin-Soo Choo and didn't do much else besides give Homer Bailey a whole lot of money he didn't deserve.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Bucs are guaranteed to take a big step back after an offseason of inactivity and letting A.J. Burnett go.

3. Boston Red Sox
Boston lost backstop Jarrod Saltalamacchia, shortstop Stephen Drew, and the team's most valuable player per fWAR from last year--Jacoby Ellsbury--to free agency. At 37, A.J. Pierzynski is likely too old to replace Salty's production, and the Red Sox are banking on Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Will Middlebrooks to step up big this year. Given that Bogaerts is just 21 and the latter two struggled last year, that might prove to be a giant mistake.

4. Philadelphia Phillies
Thanks to a lot of questionable moves (signing Marlon Byrd, bringing back Carlos Ruiz), Philly's already aging roster is even older. Their nucleus is too old and washed-up to be championship caliber, but rather than admit that and rebuild the Phillies are tied down by the likes of Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, and Jonathan Papelbon.

5. Detroit Tigers
They gave away Doug Fister for nothing and traded a still-in-his-prime Prince Fielder for a clearly declining Ian Kinsler, thus weakening both their starting rotation and their lineup. They still figure to be pretty good in an otherwise light division, but those moves will likely come back to haunt them in the postseason.

MLB Offseason Winners

New York put the pieces in place to make a championship run in Derek Jeter's (MSN)

Minus a few exceptions (Stephen Drew, Ervin Santana), most of the key free agents have signed and the offseason is pretty much over. So who "won" the offseason? Here are the five teams I think are most improved:

1. New York Yankees
Losing Robinson Cano didn't devastate the Yankees, who spent over half a billion dollars this winter. Not only did they land prized Japanese hurler Masahiro Tanaka to anchor the rotation, but they also added All-Stars Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran to beef up their lineup. I doubt Kelly Johnson and Brian Roberts will pan out, but they're guaranteed to get more from Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter. After winning just 85 games last year--their fewest in a non-strike season since 1992--and missing the postseason for only the second time in the past two decades, New York should win at least 90 and reclaim their status as one of the American League's elite.

2. Washington Nationals
Washington added Doug Fister to a rotation that already featured Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, and Gio Gonzalez. Better yet, they didn't give up anyone of value to get him. Nate McLouth brings depth to an outfield that gave way too many at-bats to the likes of Tyler Moore, Roger Bernadina, Steve Lombardozzi and Scott Hairston last year. Expect the Nats to win closer to 98 games (their 2012 win total) than 86 (last year's total).

3. Texas Rangers
Signing Shin-Soo Choo and trading for Prince Fielder should give their lineup some much-needed oomph, especially given the free agent departure of Nelson Cruz. They also got nine years younger at catcher by replacing A.J. Pierzynski with J.P. Arencibia, who ranks fifth among catchers in home runs over the past three years.

4. Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays needed to re-sign David Price and they did, keeping one of baseball's best rotations intact. They also improved their bullpen by signing Grant Balfour and trading for Heath Bell. David DeJesus solidifies the outfield, and first baseman James Loney will return to prove if last year's renaissance was legit.

5. Houston Astros
Houston's still going to be bad, but not as bad as they were last year. They fleeced Colorado for Dexter Fowler, improved their bullpen via Jesse Crain and Chad Qualls, plus landed a decent starting pitcher in Scott Feldman. Things can only get better for a team that lost 111 games last year.

McCann Solves Yankees' Catcher Problem

McCann will fill a gaping hole on the Yankees roster (ESPN)

The Yankees made their first major splash of the offseason not by re-signing Robinson Cano, but by inking Brian McCann to a five-year, $85 million deal. The contract includes a vesting option for a sixth year that would push the total value north of $100 million.

In McCann, the Yankees have found their backstop for the rest of the decade, a fixture behind the plate to join the ranks of great Yankee receivers like Bill Dickey, Yogi Berra, Elston Howard, Thurman Munson, and Jorge Posada.

In 2013 that was something New York was sorely lacking. The Yankees missed the playoffs for a variety of reasons--age catching up to them, CC Sabathia having a down year, injuries to Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Kevin Youkilis, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson compounded by incompetent replacements (Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay, Jayson Nix)--but it was impossible to overlook just how weak the Yankees were at catcher. New York relied on a combination of Chris Stewart, Austin Romine and Francisco Cervelli, who together batted a lowly .213/.289/.298 with just eight home runs. Not re-signing Russell Martin proved to be a huge mistake, as the Yankees simply didn't have capable replacements.

McCann, a seven-time All-Star, should fix that. He's one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball with five Silver Sluggers to prove it (just three catchers--Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez, and Lance Parrish have won more).  As steady as they come, he's hit between 18 and 24 home runs in each of the past eight seasons, leading the position in long balls and RBI over that span. He complements that power with good on-base skills (career .350 OBP). Throw in his underrated defense, and when fully healthy he grades out as a four-to-five win player. Since 2006--McCann's first full season behind the dish--only Joe Mauer has accumulated more value at the position per fWAR, and Mauer's about to move to first base.

Detractors will point out that McCann's about to turn 30 and has seen his games played total drop in three consecutive seasons, but age shouldn't be much of a problem going forward now that he can take advantage of the DH. The lefty slugger can also take advantage of Yankee Stadium's short porch in right, which could (should?) boost his power numbers a bit.

This deal makes a ton of sense for the Bombers and represents a big first step in getting them back on track to reach the postseason in 2014. Now that the Yankees have addressed one of their biggest needs, they can turn their attention to another premium position that needs to be filled: second base.*

Though tt's much more likely we'll see New York make a run at an outfielder before they start negotiating with Cano. Carlos Beltran, Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury are all on their radar.

Pence Overpaid?

The Giants locked up Pence rather than let him become a free agent (ESPN)

On the heels of a disappointing season in which they finished ten games under .500, the San Francisco Giants have a lot of work to do this winter in order to get back to their winning ways. It's not surprising, then, that GM Brian Sabean got the ball rolling before the regular season even ended. His first major move addressed the potential vacancy in right field by re-signing the incumbent--Hunter Pence--to a five-year, $90 million contract extension before he could reach free agency.

A lot of people didn't like this deal when it was announced ten days ago, and I'm not sure why. Few players have been more consistent than Pence. Always good and sometimes great, he's hit between 22 and 27 home runs in each of the past six seasons, topped 90 RBI in each of the last four and almost never misses a game. You know what you're getting from him, which typically translates to three to four wins a year. On average, he's been worth about $16 million per year according to FanGraphs, so giving him $18 million a season barely qualifies as an overpay (especially when accounting for inflation).

Call me crazy, but Pence is exactly the type of guy I'd want to invest my money in. He has power, speed, doesn't strike out too much and doesn't kill you on defense. He's healthy and durable. He plays hard, and by all accounts he is a plus teammate and a positive clubhouse presence. More importantly, Pence keeps himself in great shape and has never sustained a serious injury, so he probably isn't going to be the type of guy who falls off a cliff in his early 30s. His best days may already be behind him, but he should have several more quality seasons ahead of him. Put it all together and he's a relatively safe investment, unlike, say, a Josh Hamilton. Or any pitcher (nobody needs to remind the Giants how their marriage with Barry Zito worked out).

$90 million is a lot of money, especially for a guy who's never been considered one of the sport's elite players. It's $10 million shy of $100 million. It's higher than the Opening Day payrolls of half the teams in baseball. But impact free agents are becoming rarer and rarer these days, and with offense at a premium I can understand why San Francisco felt the cost of replacing Pence's production outweighed the cost of keeping him in a Giants uniform.

There are better (read: more efficient) ways of spending $90 million on baseball players. Hell, last winter the Red Sox got Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli for half that. But you could do a whole lot worse than Hunter Pence.

MLB Hot Stove winners

After examing the offseason's five biggest losers yesterday, today I take a look at five teams that won the winter.

Atlanta Braves
The Braves brought in some much-needed righthanded pop in the form of the Upton brothers, who will team with Jason Heyward to form the National League's most exciting outfield. Though they failed to acquire a strong replacement for Chipper Jones (Chris Johnson is replacement level at best) and lack catching depth behind Brian McCann (Gerald Laird? pass), the Braves are primed for another playoff run in 2013.

Boston Red Sox
Boston began the offseason by firing Bobby Valentine, the man responsible for so much of the controversy and dysfunction that plagued the Red Sox last season. Ben Cherington found a good replacement in John Farrell, a former Red Sox pitching coach whom many members of the team (Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Dustin Pedroia) respect. He satisfied David Ortiz with a contract extension, then went about reshaping the roster with cheap, productive character guys. Cherington signed Mike Napoli to replace Adrian Gonzalez, Shane Victorino to man right field (then slide over to center when/if Jacoby Ellsbury leaves) and Ryan Dempster to fill Josh Beckett's void in the rotation. He also added David Ross to complement Jarrod Saltalamacchia behind the plate, imported lefty-masher Jonny Gomes and traded for All-Star closer Joel Hanrahan, thus relegating Andrew Bailey to eighth inning duties. The Sox needed a new shortstop after trading Mike Aviles and found a decent one in Stephen Drew, younger brother of J.D. Drew, who played the last five years of his career in Boston and collected $70 million for his services.  All winter long Cherington preached patience and discipline, and the mantra seems to have paid off. There's no question the Red Sox will be a better team in 2013--the only question is will they be good enough to reach the postseason for the first time in four years?

Cleveland Indians
The Tribe lost 94 games last year but got significantly better this winter. They upgraded their outfield outfield by signing Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, signed slugging corner infielder Mark Reynolds to a cheap one-year deal and traded for Trevor Bauer, who projects to be a future ace. With veteran skipper Terry Francona at the helm, Cleveland now has one of the best managers of the past decade at the reins. The Indians aren't talented enough to surpass the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central but have the pieces to move above .500 for the first time since 2007.

Seattle Mariners
Besides locking up their staff ace/face of the franchise for the rest of the decade, the M's brought in plenty of offensive firepower in the way of Michael Morse, Jason Bay, Kendrys Morales, Raul Ibanez, and Kelly Shoppach, all of whom will be the first Mariners to benefit from Safeco Field's closer fences. The starting rotation could use more depth, but King Felix is an ideal hurler to build around. The Mariners will have their hands full with the Rangers, Angels, and A's this year, but they could be sneaky-good and post a winning record in baseball's toughest division.

Toronto Blue Jays
The Jaybirds look like World Series favorites (on paper, at least) after completing two blockbuster trades to bring in Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, and reigning NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey. Not to mention, Melky Cabrera could turn out to be a massive steal for a two-year, $16 million commitment.

MLB Hot Stove Losers

With spring training here at last, it's time to reflect on another busy baseball offseason. Here's a look at the five biggest losers of the winter (in no particular order).

Miami Marlins
Traded away most of their established talent (Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson) and pissed off their franchise player, Giancarlo Stanton, in the process. Considering the Fish lost 93 games with that crew last year (plus Hanley Ramirez, Heath Bell, Omar Infante, and Anibal Sanchez), the Marlins are a lock to lose at least 100 games in 2013.

Kansas City Royals
The Royals haven't won in so long that they clearly have a misconception about what it means to "win now." It definitely doesn't mean signing innings-eaters Ervin Santana (5.16 ERA in 2012) and Jeremy Guthrie. It also doesn't mean trading away Wil Myers, the best hitter in the minor leagues last year, for a number two pitcher disguised as an ace (James Shields). Even with continued growth from young stars Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, KC is a .500 team at best with almost no chance at contending for the second wild card. Don't be surprised if GM Dayton Moore is out of a job by this time next year.

New York Yankees
After getting wiped out by the Detroit Tigers in last fall's ALCS, the Yanks failed to do much this offseason besides get older. Squeezed by their commitment to getting their payroll below the luxury tax threshold of $189 million by next season, the typically free-spending Yankees restrained from handing out multi-year deals to any notable free agents. Brian Cashman was forced to pinch every penny, and what resulted was perhaps the quietest Yankee winter in recent memory. They picked up Kevin Youkilis to fill in for Alex Rodriguez at third, but Youk brings an injury-checkered past and eroding skills to the Big Apple. Instead of ponying up for Nick Swisher, they brought back a 39 year-old Ichiro Suzuki to man right field. Gone too is Rafael Soriano, an elite closer who stepped up when Mariano Rivera went down (though the 43 year-old Mo will be back, as will 40 year-old Andy Pettitte and 38 year-old Hiroki Kuroda). Russell Martin departed via free agency, leaving New York without an everyday backstop. Key role players Eric Chavez, Andruw Jones and Raul Ibanez--who combined for 49 home runs last year--are gone as well. Travis Hafner is an intriguing addition with that ballpark, but I'm not as enthusiastic about Dan Johnson, Matt Diaz and Juan Rivera. The Bronx Bombers enter 2013 loaded with question marks and will probably miss the playoffs for just the second time in the past 20 seasons.

Baltimore Orioles
If the O's think they can repeat last year's fluky success (93 wins with a +7 run differential), then they are sorely mistaken. After sitting on their hands this winter, they're doomed to crash and burn in 2013 when their good fortune runs out.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Made the biggest blunder of the offseason by trading Justin Upton, a potential MVP-in-the-making whom they still controlled for another three years, and Chris Johnson for Randall Delgado and Martin Prado. They gave up on B.J. Upton's little brother too early and should have been able to get a whole lot more in return than a pair of complementary players and three so-so prospects.

Red Sox Avoid Arbitration Drama

The Boston Red Sox have had a busy holiday weekend so far.  General Manager Ben Cherington reached agreements with all eight of Boston's arbitration-eligible players, listed below. He also came to terms with Mike Napoli, who signed with the Red Sox six weeks ago but was flagged after his physical revealed a hip condition. The new deal is much cheaper; a one-year, $5 million contract that could be worth up to $13 million with incentives.

Jacoby Ellsbury: one-year, $9.5 million
-Possibly the last paycheck Ellsbury ever receives from the Boston Red Sox, for the Scott Boras client is expected to cost a pretty penny when he hits the free agent market next winter. If he walks, expect the speedy center fielder to go out with a bang (read: big contract year).

Joel Hanrahan: one-year, $7.04 million
-Boston's new closer nearly doubled his 2012 salary but will still earn little more than half of what the Philadelphia Phillies are paying Jonathan Papelbon.

Craig Breslow: two-year, $6.25 million
-The well-traveled southpaw has put together a solid career coming out of the bullpen and continued to pitch well after the Arizona Diamondbacks shipped him up to Boston for Scott Podsednik and Matt Albers. His deal includes an option for a third year.

Alfredo Aceves: one-year, $2.65 million
-Thrust into the closer's role when Bailey got hurt last year, Aceves struggled from the outset and never looked comfortable. Buried himself in Bobby Valentine's doghouse by the end of the summer, so Ace should benefit from a fresh start under new manager John Farrell. Expect him to be the dependable middle reliever he was for Boston in 2011, when he went 10-2 with a 2.61 ERA.

Andrew Bailey: one-year, $4.1 million
-The former Rookie of the Year will serve as a setup man for the first time in his career and might need some time to adjust to his new role. I'm willing to chalk up his failed 2012 to injury and give him a second chance in 2013.

Daniel Bard: one-year, $1.86 million
-Moving Bard to the starting rotation backfired last year, but hopefully he can put the failed experiment behind him and dominate hitters like he did for most of 2011.


Franklin Morales: one-year, $1.49 million
-Has been a solid addition to Boston's bullpen since Theo Epstein purchased him from the Colorado Rockies in the spring of 2011. Morales stunk with the Rockies but has revived his career with Boston, where he's averaged nearly a strikeout per inning and holds a 117 ERA+. There's been talk that Morales, who made nine starts in 2012, may be converted into a starting pitcher, especially if John Lackey bombs in his return to the rotation.


Andrew Miller: one-year, 1.48 million
-The former first round draft pick cost the Red Sox a playoff spot two years ago, when Terry Francona gave him a dozen starts in place of the injured Clay Buchholz. Working exclusively out of the bullpen, the perennial disappointment settled down last year and developed into a useful reliever for Bobby V. Miller maintained an impressive 11.4 K/9 over his 53 relief appearances to complement his 3.35 ERA (131 ERA+) and 1.19 WHIP.

After addressing the team's most pressing concerns, Cherington's payroll currently sits around $145 million. Spring training starts in a month, so he's likely done with major moves for the winter. While he's improved the team considerably without overpaying for big name free agents such as Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke, and Anibal Sanchez, I don't think he turned the Red Sox back into contenders overnight. Napoli, Hanrahan, Shane Victorino, and Ryan Dempster are all good players, but can they do enough to help a 93 loss-team reach the postseason?

 We'll find out soon enough.

Red Sox trade for Hanrahan

After completing a flurry of moves earlier in the month, the Boston Red Sox bolstered their bullpen by trading for All-Star closer Joel Hanrahan. Hanrahan will supplant Andrew Bailey, a two-time All-Star himself, as the team's primary closer. New skipper John Farrell will relegate Bailey to eighth inning duties.

Bailey was a huge disappointment in his Red Sox debut. The 2009 AL Rookie of the Year injured his thumb during Spring Training and required reconstructive surgery. The injury-prone reliever did not return until August 14th, at which point Boston was below .500 and fading out of the playoff picture. Bailey pitched well initially and replaced Alfredo Aceves as Bobby Valentine's closer down the stretch, but struggled mightily in September. He saved only six games in nine chances last year and finished the season with a bloated 7.04 ERA, not exactly what Ben Cherington had in mind when he traded Josh Reddick and two prospects to acquire Bailey and Ryan Sweeney from Billy Beane's Oakland A's last winter.

364 days later, the Red Sox sent Mark Melancon, Stolmy Pimentel, Ivan De Jesus and Jerry Sands to Pittsburgh in exchange for Hanrahan and second baseman Brock Holt. Hanrahan has quietly been one of baseball's better closers in the last two years. In 2011, his first season as an everyday closer, he saved 40 games, posted a tidy 1.83 ERA and made his first All-Star team. He was named to the All-Star team again last year even though his ERA rose by nearly a full run and his walk rate more than doubled. On the bright side, his K/9 ratio jumped from 8.0 to 10.1, a figure right in line with his career 9.9 mark, and he still saved 36 games.

However, there's underlying evidence that his recent success has been enhanced by good fortune. In 2011 just one of the 54 fly balls he allowed left the park. Last year his opponents mustered a paltry .225 BABiP against him, and Hanrahan managed to strand almost 90 percent of runners that reached base against him. Accordingly, his 4.45 FIP, 4.28 xFIP, 4.26 tERA and 3.80 SIERA were all well above his 2.72 ERA, indicating that he did not pitch nearly as well as his ERA suggests.

Regression to the mean combined with the transition to a less favorable pitching environment could spell trouble for Hanrahan in his American League debut. He's still a plus reliever, just not as dominant as some of his numbers suggest. He's no Jonathan Papelbon but represents a significant upgrade over the wildly inconsistent Aceves-Bailey tandem from last year. Assuming Hanrahan stays healthy and holds on to his closer's job, I'd expect around 35 saves and an ERA in the low-threes from him next year. 2013 is a contract year for the 31 year-old, so hopefully that extra motivation translates into strong results on the field.

The Red Sox are also reportedly pursuing first baseman Adam LaRoche, which indicates the team might back out from the three-year agreement they reached with Mike Napoli. Talks have stalled with the All-Star catcher because of a hip condition discovered during his physical. This health risk prompted Boston's front office to change the language of his new contract to protect themselves should he miss an extended period of time.

LaRoche, 33, is coming off a career year of sorts in which he won a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, and finished sixth in the NL MVP race. The Washington Nationals would like to bring him back but aren't willing to offer more than two guaranteed years. Unlike Napoli, LaRoche is a first baseman by trade who defends his position better than the converted backstop. I'd still rather have the right-handed slugger, who's two years younger, loves hitting in Fenway and would add more balance to Boston's lineup.

But Laroche is a good plan B. After all, a consistent player who belted 33 home runs last season and amassed 100 RBI in 2010 and 2012 wouldn't be a bad consolation prize.