Baseball's Elite Eight

PED use aside, Bonds (left) and A-Rod are two of the greatest living ballplayers (NYPost)

So MLB.com is letting fans determine the four greatest living players in baseball history (a title Joe DiMaggio proudly but wrongly held from 1969 until his death in 1999). Only not really, because voters are selecting from a ballot of eight candidates, several of whom shouldn't be there. Several writers, Joe Posnanski chief among them, have already pointed out the lunacy of Sandy Koufax's inclusion, and by extension Pedro Martinez (who was a lot like Koufax, only with better developmental seasons and a handful of years tacked on at the end of his career). Johnny Bench seems to be an odd choice as well, and I probably wouldn't have given Tom Seaver much thought.

If I were in charge of creating the ballot, these are the eight guys I'd put on there:

Barry Bonds
Nobody had a career anything close to the one that Bobby Bonds's son did, which is why the most similar batter to him has a similarity score of only 761 (fun fact: it's his godfather). He leads the world in home runs and walks, has more MVPs than anybody, stole 514 bases, and was the best (or nearly so) defensive left fielder of all-time. 2000-2004 Bonds was the closest anyone has come to dominating the game like Babe Ruth since, well, Babe Ruth.

Roger Clemens
The pitching equivalent of Bonds is, in all likelihood, the best pitcher to ever grace this earth (check back with us in 15 years, Clayton Kershaw).  The crazy thing about Clemens is how he was so good for so long. He won his first Cy Young award and was named MVP in 1986 at age 23; He won his seventh and final Cy Young in 2004 at 41, was the major league ERA champion the next year, and had a 2.30 ERA (194 ERA+) the year after that.

Hank Aaron
Aaron may have ceded his title as the Home Run King to Bonds, but he's still number one all-time in RBI, total bases, and extra base hits. What blows my mind about Aaron is that he was so good for so long, drawing MVP votes every year from 1955 through 1973, but came away with only one MVP award. He finished third six times, but for some reason I'm just really surprised by that, especially since he kept raking even as offense disappeared in the 1960s.

Willie Mays
At his best, Mays was the best all-around ballplayer there ever was. He had 50-homer power, 40-steal speed, was a threat to win a batting title, and played center field better than anyone not named Andruw Jones. It's scary to think what he could have accomplished had he not lost two full seasons to military service and played in one of the worst possible offensive environments (Candlestick Park in the '60s) imaginable.

Randy Johnson
The Big Unit also had a Koufax-esque run for the ages in the late '90s/early '00s, earning four straight Cys and five in all. The nine-time strikeout champion punched up more K's than everyone besides Nolan Ryan, won over 300 games, and staked his claim as the best southpaw to ever take the bump (apologies to Koufax, Kershaw, and Lefty Grove).

Greg Maddux
Mad Dog matched the peak of Koufax (four consecutive Cys, 2.15 ERA over a seven-year stretch) while remaining healthy and durable enough to complete more than 5,000 innings. Think about it--that's averaging 250 innings per year for 20 years. Nobody today, not even of Mark Buehrle, is capable of that.

Rickey Henderson
Henderson may not have the as great as he thought/proclaimed he was, but he was still pretty damn good. Man of Steal stole more bases and scored more runs than anybody in baseball history, reached base over 5,200 times, swatted nearly 300 home runs, and swiped 100 bags or more in a season three times. Henderson, who maintained a .401 OBP over 25 seasons and 13,346 plate appearances, was also exceptional into old age, leading the league in walks and steals at 39 and batting .315/.423/.466 at 40.

Alex Rodriguez
If nothing else, Rodriguez is reminding us this year of the incredibly gifted player once considered the best all-around talent in baseball. From his Mike Trout-esque beginnings in Seattle to his towering seasons in Texas to his continued dominance in New York, Rodriguez has been a force in major league baseball for two decades now. He's done some incredible things along the way, like win five home run crowns and three MVP awards while playing top-shelf defense and stealing hundreds of bases. The sad thing is that he probably still could have done all those things without PEDs.

Of these eight, I'd vote for Bonds, Aaron, Mays, and Clemens. If the ballot could have stretched to 10 I would have included Mike Schmidt and probably Seaver, with Frank Robinson just missing the cut.

Ranking Righthanded Hitters

More than 75 years after his last at-bat, Hornsby is still the best righty

With another incredible season under his belt, American League MVP Miguel Cabrera is making a case as one of the best righthanded hitters of all time. But there have been many great players that batted from the right side, so as of now he doesn't even crack the top 10. In my opinion, these are the best righthanded hitters to debut after 1900. That disqualifies Honus Wagner and Nap Lajoie right off the bat, though frankly I'm not sure they would have made the final cut anyways.

For statistical comparisons I used Adjusted OPS,  scaled Runs per Plate Appearance, True Average and weighted On-Base Average to help account for parks and different scoring levels.

1. Rogers Hornsby 175 OPS+ 173 wRC+ .459 wOBA 860 Rbat
Rajah won six consecutive sabermetric Triple Crowns (seven overall), two traditional Triple Crowns, two MVP awards, and led the league in OPS+ a dozen times. The .358 career hitter also eclipsed a .400 batting average three times and batted .382/.460/.637 during the Roaring Twenties.

2. Hank Aaron 155 OPS+ 153 WRC+ .335 TAv .403 wOBA 870 Rbat
The all-time leader in RBI (2,297), total bases (6,856) and extra base hits (1,477), Hammerin' Hank is best remembered for breaking Babe Ruth's career home run record in 1974. Though Barry Bonds has since passed him, Aaron's 755 career dingers are still the most ever by a righty. His combination of consistency and longevity--20 straight seasons with at least 20 homers and and OPS+ over 100 in all but one of his 23 seasons--is unmatched for a power hitter.

3. Jimmie Foxx 163 OPS+ 158 wRC+ .460 wOBA 758 Rbat
One of the most feared hitters of all-time, Foxx led the American League in walks seven times. From 1929-1940, Foxx reached 30 home runs and 100 RBI each year while batting an aggregate .334/.440/.644. He also won three MVPs and a Triple Crown in a career with 534 home runs.

4. Willie Mays 156 OPS+ 154 wRC+ .339 TAv .409 wOBA 805 Rbat
Probably the best all-around player to ever grace the diamond, Mays slammed 660 homers in a career that spanned 22 seasons. He also won five league OPS titles, five slugging titles and four home run championships.

5. Albert Pujols 165 OPS+ 161 wRC+ .337 TAv .420 wOBA 663 Rbat
Through his first ten seasons, Pujols cemented his reputation as one of the best hitters in baseball history by winning three MVP awards (would have been more if not for Barry Bonds) and averaging 41 homers, 123 RBI, 43 doubles and 119 runs scored per season. His career OPS after the 2010 season was 1.050. Though his career appears to be in a state of decline, he's already done more than enough to bank a first-ballot Hall of Fame induction.

6. Frank Thomas 156 OPS+ 154 wRC+ .331 TAv .416 wOBA 688 Rbat
Few players have started their careers better than Thomas, who batted .330/.452/.600 through his first eight seasons and won back-to-back MVP awards, becoming the league's first righthanded hitter to do so in over 60 years. The Big Hurt finished his career with rate stats nearly identical to Mickey Mantle's and 521 home runs, same as Ted Williams and Willie McCovey.

7. Manny Ramirez 154 OPS+ 153 wRC+ .326 TAv .418 wOBA 649 Rbat
Ramirez loafed on defense and never ran out anything, which explains how he never won an MVP award (or even finish second), but his intense focus in the batter's box was unquestioned. For his career he batted .312/.411/.585 with 555 home runs and 547 doubles. ManRam was also an RBI machine, topping the century mark 12 times and driving in as many as 165 in 1999.

8. Frank Robinson 154 OPS+ 153 wRC+ .332 TAv .404 wOBA 726 Rbat
Another candidate for most feared hitter to ever step up to the plate, Robinson led the majors in intentional walks four straight years. He is the only player to win an MVP award in both leagues, winning in 1961 with the Reds and 1966 with the Orioles after winning both the conventional and sabermetric Triple Crowns.

9. Mark McGwire 163 OPS+ 157 wRC+ .333 TAv .415 wOBA 544 Rbat
Big Mac was a feast or famine type hitter, especially early on his career (.250 career average through age 30), but walked a ton and so his career OBP of .394 is actually very good. More importantly, he cranked 583 home runs and owns the best AB/HR ratio of all-time.

10. Tie Hank Greenberg 158 OPS+ 154 wRC+ .453 wOBA 433 Rbat and Joe DiMaggio 155 OPS+ 152 wRC+ .439 wOBA 529 Rbat
Due to injuries, World War II and somewhat early retirements (both called it quits after their age 36 seasons), their careers lasted just 13 seasons. But both men accomplished a great deal in that short time and were overwhelmingly dominant when they did play. Greenberg batted .313/.412/.605 for his career, winning four home run championships, four RBI titles and two MVP awards in the process. He narrowly missed breaking Lou Gehrig's league RBI record and Babe Ruth's single season home run record in successive seasons. DiMaggio's numbers were hurt by Yankee Stadium, but Death Valley didn't stop him from winning back-to-back batting titles and three MVP awards, or from making the All-Star team every year. It also didn't stop him from getting a hit in 56 consecutive games in 1941.

Honorable Mention (in no particular order)

Dick Allen 156 OPS+ 155 wRC+ .330 TAv .400 wOBA
Harry Heilmann 148 OPS+ 144 wRC+ .427 wOBA
Mike Schmidt 147 OPS+ 147 wRC+ .317 TAv .395 wOBA
Gary Sheffield 140 OPS+ 141 wRC+ .314 TAv .391 wOBA
Edgar Martinez 147 OPS+ 147 wRC+ .320 TAv .405 wOBA
Alex Rodriguez 143 OPS+ 143 wRC+ .314 TAv .400 wOBA
Harmon Killebrew 143 OPS+ 142 wRC+ .318 TAv .389 wOBA
Jeff Bagwell 149 OPS+ 149 wRC+ .321 TAv .405 wOBA
Mike Piazza 143 OPS+ 140 wRC+ .314 TAv.390 wOBA
Albert Belle 144 OPS+ 139 wRC+ .310 TAv .396 wOBA
Frank Howard 142 OPS+ 140 wRC+ .313 TAv .374 wOBA
Ralph Kiner 149 OPS+ 147 WRC+ .427 wOBA
Hack Wilson 144 OPS+ 143 wRC+ .421 wOBA
Vladimir Guerrero 140 OPS+ 136 wRC+ .309 TAv .390 wOBA

Maybe someday...
Miguel Cabrera 154 OPS+ 152 wRC+ .324 TAv .407 wOBA
Ryan Braun 146 OPS+ 148 wRC+ .315 TAv 400 wOBA
Mike Trout 166 OPS+ 163 wRC+ .350 TAv .405 wOBA

The Trout/A-Rod parallel

Alex Rodriguez has been in the news a lot lately, but for all the wrong reasons. Mike Trout's name has come up a bit too (for different reasons). I couldn't help but think of the time in the not-so-distant past when Rodriguez, like Trout is now, was celebrated as one of baseball's best young players. Also like Trout, he set himself on the course to Cooperstown with an MVP-type season at the tender age of 20. In fact, their numbers are eerily similar.

A-Rod's 1996: 9.2 fWAR 146 G, 677 PA 141 R 36 HR .358/.414/.631 161 OPS+ 159 wRC+
Trout's 2012: 10.0 fWAR 139 G 639 PA 129 R 30 HR .326/.399/.564 168 OPS+ 166 wRC+

Yes, 16 years before Trout, there was another 20 year-old kid (and former first-round draft pick) who set the world on fire. Like Trout, he played a premium defensive position, posted monster offensive numbers and was voted second in the MVP race. A-Rod was Mike Trout when Trout was still in preschool.

Both players debuted as teenagers, though neither played particularly well (but, to be fair, what kind of 18 or 19 year-old dominates major leaguers?). Their superstar potential was obvious, but no one was truly prepared for them to take the world by storm at such a young age.

Before long they were household names. Both made their first appearances on the cover of Sports Illustrated in the midst of their breakout seasons. Rodriguez made the July 8th, 1996 cover accompanied by an obvious tagline "Hot Player." (He was hitting .336/.387/.609 at the time but was about to get insanely, ridiculously hot). Trout, who appeared on the August 27th, 2012 issue, was dubbed "The Supernatural" with SI asking the question "How can Mike Trout be so good so young?" Both were at the top of their games for much of the summer, only to tail off towards the end of the season. Their less-than-stellar finishes, combined with their teams' failure to reach the postseason, proved to be deciding factors in their MVP candidacies.

Want more similarities? Of course you do! Here are some others I noticed:

• Both batted at/near the top of loaded lineups. Trout batted leadoff, ahead of Albert Pujols, Mark Trumbo and Torii Hunter. Rodriguez hit second, in front of Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez and Jay Buhner. No wonder they led the league in runs scored!
• Trout posted a .383 BABiP. Rodriguez .382
• Both had seven sacrifice flies
• Both reached on an error seven times
• Both were 20 when the season began and turned 21 during the summer
• Both made the All-Star team and won a Silver Slugger
• As stated, both finished second in hotly debated MVP races. The players they lost to, Juan Gonzalez and Miguel Cabrera, were one-dimensional sluggers on playoff teams. Even their numbers look incredibly similar--Gonzalez: .314-47-144-1.011 OPS, Cabrera: .330-44-139-.999 OPS

So yeah, before all the money, off-the-field shenanigans, public misfires and PED stuff soured his reputation, there was a time when Rodriguez was exactly like Mike Trout--a kid who was ridiculously skilled at baseball, making good on his seemingly limitless potential. Back in those heady days, nobody could have foreseen what would become of A-Rod's life. I don't think Trout's career will follow the same path as Rodriguez's. I really hope it doesn't.

More Money, More PED Problems

In the wake of another PED bust that fingered several high profile baseball players, Nelson Cruz, Gio Gonzalez, and Alex Rodriguez among them, I am at a loss for words. Honestly, what can be said at this point that hasn't been already said?  When I stumbled across the first reports last week, I must admit that I didn't have any feelings resembling surprise, outrage, or disappointment.  The only word to describe my emotions, or lack thereof, is apathy.

I guess I just don't care anymore. For nearly a decade now, doping revelations have torn down some of baseball's biggest names, many of whom were the heroes of my childhood. Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa, the sparring sluggers who captivated the nation and saved its pastime when they shattered Roger Maris's single season home run record in the summer of 1998. Rafael Palmeiro, one of only four players to accumulate at least 500 home runs and 3,000 hits. Manny Ramirez--possibly the best pure righthanded hitter the game has ever known as well as a repeat offender--plus his partner-in-crime David Ortiz. Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, arguably the best position player and starting pitcher, respectively, in baseball history. The list goes on (and I'm not even including "suspected" dopers like Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez, and Miguel Tejada, among others)

Now a new generation of stars is being outed as frauds. 2011 National League MVP Ryan Braun, 2011 ALCS MVP Nelson Cruz, and 2012 All-Star Game MVP Melky Cabrera, all of whom debuted after baseball installed penalties to punish steroid users, are just some of the names that recently failed drug tests (though Braun got off on a technicality). Unlike the McGwires and Sosas before them who juiced during baseball's "Wild West" era when there was no policy in place to identify, much less penalize, steroid use, these players have no excuse. They can't fall back on the "everyone was doing it" excuse or play the "baseball turned the other cheek" card. They knew what they were doing was wrong, that they could face punitive consequences if they were caught, but ultimately decided that was a risk worth taking.

Unfortunately there is no easy solution. Stricter testing and harsher punishments help, but these measures only do so much to combat and prevent PED use. They can't possibly discourage every potential cheater, not when there's fame, endorsement deals and millions of dollars on the line.  There's too much at stake. The rewards outweigh the risk.

Baseball has changed the steroid culture considerably in recent years, but no amount of testing can change human nature. Cheating, in some form or another, has been a part of the game since its earliest days. The methods and tactics have evolved, but the psychology hasn't. There are always going to be rogue individuals looking to gain an unfair advantage, willing to game the system and get a leg up on the competition. Cheating can't be eradicated. The sooner society accepts that, the sooner we can forgive the muscly men who wowed us with their titanic home run blasts and move on.

Projecting A-Rod

For the first time since the Clinton administration, owning Alex Rodriguez on your fantasy baseball team will not necessitate a lofty draft pick or hefty bid. The three-time AL MVP underwent hip surgery on January 16th to repair a torn labrum and is expected to be out until the All-Star Break. Meanwhile, Kevin Youkilis will fill in for the sidelined slugger, manning the hot corner while Rodriguez is on the mend.

When A-Rod had surgery on his other hip four years ago, he came back strong. Rodriguez launched a three-run homer on the first pitch he saw, kicking off a season in which he went yard 30 times, drove in 100 runs, and maintained a .933 OPS. Then, he topped it all off with a monster postseason that carried the franchise to its 27th World Series championship. That Fall Classic marked the last time that Rodriguez was a truly dominant offensive force.

Anyone expecting a repeat of '09 is going to be sorely disappointed. Too much time has passed. Too much has changed. Rodriguez is not the same player he was back then. Not even close. Father Time and myriad injuries have taken their toll, turning A-Rod into a shell of his former self. His skills have eroded and his body is breaking down. His bat is slower, he's striking out more, and his power has evaporated.

Rodriguez is not useless, however. He's still a solid third baseman and above average hitter as he prepares for his 20th big league season. BR and FanGraphs both agree that he was worth around 2.0 bWAR last year, and in the AL East every win counts. But the days of him as a middle of the order threat in New York's loaded lineup are long gone. The former superstar is a complementary piece to Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira, and Curtis Granderson. He'll be 38 this summer, an age when many players (minus Derek Jeter) have already retired or are about to hang it up.

Not Rodriguez. He's still under contract for four more years beyond 2013 and will bank at least $86 million as he guns for Barry Bonds' career home run record. I used to think he'd blow past it and make a run at 800 long balls. Now I wouldn't be surprised if he falls short of 700 (he's at 647 right now, just 13 shy of Willie Mays).

Assuming Rodriguez is fully healthy when he returns and can play everyday, I'll project him for ten home runs, around 40 RBI/ runs scored, and a .260/.340/.420 batting line. I wouldn't waste a draft pick on him unless you're in a deep AL-only league and can spare the DL spot. He stole 13 bases in 14 tries last year, but given his age and condition it doesn't make much sense for Joe Girardi to give him the green light on the basepaths. Rodriguez has never had a season where he failed to steal a base, but 2013 could be his first.

All Yankee fans care about is whether Rodriguez will hit in the postseason, assuming there is one for New York. Since leading the Bronx Bombers to the '09 title, A-Rod has reverted into the postseason goat everyone loves to hate. He's disappeared, failing to go deep or bat .200 in each of last four playoff series. In fact, over his last 21 playoff games he's hit .160/.261/.187 with no home runs and a whopping 25 strikeouts. He was so bad last October that Girardi resorted to benching him in favor of Eric Chavez, though we now know that his hip condition was responsible for his offensive woes.

That's all behind him now. Rodriguez wants to redeem himself. He needs to be the hero. But at this stage in his career, playing on two bum hips that sap his power and diminish his speed, I don't think he can.

A-Rod Due for Big Game

Rodriguez needs to come up big tonight, or else (FoxSports)

After much speculation and hoopla over where Yankees manager Joe Girardi would slot Alex Rodriguez in the batting order tonight, it turns out #13 will once again take his hacks as the team's number three hitter.

No surprise there. Girardi is a veteran's manager who likes to maintain the status quo and he doesn't want to ruffle the feathers of his highest paid player.  Unlike Joe Maddon and Bobby Valentine, he doesn't shake things up just for the sake of shaking things up.  He prefers the Terry Francona approach; just pencil the names in and let the players do their thing. However, many fans were calling for him to take action and drop his struggling third baseman in the batting order.  Rodriguez frustrated the Yankee faithful by going 1-for-9 with five strikeouts in Baltimore during the first two games. Even a longtime Rodriguez defender/apologist like myself can see that he looks overmatched right now, that he can't catch up to the fastball or make consistent contact on breaking pitches.  Girardi said he was open to the idea of rearranging his the lineup for Game 3, but decided to hold his ground.

I think he made the right call. A good manager has confidence in his players and sticks with them through thick and thin.  He does what he thinks is best for the team without caving in to the pressure from fans and media. I think Girardi also understands the implications of making a move like that at this stage in the season. Dropping Rodriguez in the order, or even benching him in favor of Eric Chavez, would feel like a panic move when the series is merely tied at one game apiece.  It would incite a media firestorm and signal desperation.  When Joe Torre dropped Rodriguez to sixth, then eighth during the '06 Division Series versus Detroit, it backfired.  A-Rod went 1-for-15, New York lost in four games and Rodriguez never forgave his skipper for humiliating him.  Girardi knows the Yankees won 95 games during the regular season with A-Rod hitting third in many of them. The strategy worked for 162 games, so why wouldn't it work now? If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

It certainly looks like Rodriguez's swing is broke though, doesn't it? He's mired in one of his patented postseason funks, much like the one that dogged him in 2005, '06, and '07.  He hasn't gone yard in the playoffs since Halloween night, 2009, a span of 87 plate appearances.  Since helping the Bombers win the title that fall, he's 10-for-59 with 17 strikeouts in 16 games while batting .169/.282/.203. Granted, Rodriguez is not the superstar he once was, but that level of production from a middle-of-the-order bat is simply unacceptable, even for a 37 year-old with diminishing power. Needless to say, A-Rod has been long overdue, and he needs to find a way to contribute something from the batter's box tonight.  A sac fly, a timely base hit, a walk to start a rally. Something. Anything. Because if he comes up empty again, and the Yankees lose, then Girardi will have no choice but to make a change for Game 4.

Rodriguez is still an above average player.  Now is the time to prove it.

Sox-Yanks Preview

The Red Sox wrap up their ten game road trip with a weekend series at The Stadium.  Boston took two out of three last time it was in town three short weeks ago.  Since then the Bosox have gone 7-10, dropping three games below .500 and three additional games behind New York in the standings.  Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon have returned, but Will Middlebrooks is done for the season and David Ortiz still hasn't returned from his achilles injury.  With the organization embroiled in a toxic blend of controversy, disappointment and widespread dissent off the field on a daily basis, on the field their playoff hopes continue to evaporate with each and every loss.  They are in disarray, and time is running out for them to make a late season playoff push. Yankees, on the other hand, own the best record in the American League at 70-48 and have kept humming along despite losing C.C. Sabathia and Alex Rodriguez in recent weeks. 


Given the two teams' vastly different positions in the standings, these games don't seem to have much significance.  But they do.  With a sweep of the strumbling Sox, New York could bury their rivals' season for good.  Sink the Red Sox ship and send it to the bottom of the ocean.  But if Boston can pull off a stunning sweep, they're back at .500 and maybe, just maybe, will rally and put together that run they've been promising all season long.

Stay tuned.

Friday night: Franklin Morales vs. Phil Hughes
Easily the worst pitching matchup of the series, this one has the makings of a potential slugfest.    Morales (3-3, 3.29 ERA) has been a solid spot-starter in his two August outings, allowing just five hits and four earned runs in eleven and one-third innings of work against the light-hitting Twins and Indians.  Hughes (11-10, 4.44 ERA) has struggled of late and may be hitting a wall after injuries limited him to just 14 starts last season.  He's held Boston to three runs in both of his starts against them this year, but I have a good feeling the offense is going to have a big night against him.  Don't be surprised if this one gets ugly early, forcing Bobby Valentine and Joe Girardi to dip into their bullpens in the middle innings.

My prediction: Red Sox 7, Yankees 5

Saturday afternoon: Jon Lester vs. David Phelps
After putting an abysmal July (9.36 ERA and eight home runs allowed) behind him, Boston's ace has settled down since flipping the calendar to a new month.  In his three August starts the two-time All-Star has a 3.48 ERA--nearly identical to last season's 3.47 mark--with a 23/4 K/BB ratio and no home runs allowed in 20 and two-thirds innings.  After three consecutive starts during mid-July in which he failed to complete the fifth inning, Lester (6-10, 5.20 ERA) has gone at least six in each of his past four turns starting with his last start here. Is coming off his most dominant performance of the season (12 K's against Cleveland), so hopefully he can keep this hot streak going.  Phelps (also 3-3, 2.53 ERA) is filling in for the injured Sabathia.  The rookie has made just four starts in his brief major league career, but it bears mentioning that his last one went well; two earned runs in five innings against the Texas Rangers.  Nobody knows what to expect from him, but I'm fairly confident he won't outpitch Lester, who looks like he's finally turned the corner.

My prediction: Red Sox 6, Yankees 3

Sunday night: Josh Beckett vs. Hiroki Kuroda
Talk about two pitchers going in completely different directions.  Since May 21st, a span of almost three months, Josh Beckett (5-10, 5.19 ERA) has made a dozen starts and gotten the W one time.  One.  His ERA--4.06 at the end of June--has swelled to 5.19.  He made one start against the Yankees this year and it wasn't pretty; eight hits and six earned runs allowed in five innings back on July 6th at Fenway.  Has gotten rocked in each of his two starts this month and just doesn't appear to be the same pitcher he's been in the past.  On the other hand Kuroda (11-8, 3.06 ERA) keeps getting better as the season progresses.  Over his past five starts he boasts a 1.44 ERA and 32/5 K/BB rate while limiting opponents to .213/.247/.290 numbers. Pitched a gem the last time he faced the Red Sox by firing eight innings of two-run ball in a game the Yankees would go on to lose in extra innings.  I actually think Beckett's going to bounce back, but Kuroda will get the best of him in a low-scoring pitcher's duel.

My Prediction:  Yankees 4, Red Sox 2

The A-Rod LeBron Parallel (and why they're more alike then you think)

A month ago LeBron James wilted during the Finals, the Dallas Mavericks vanquished his Miami Heat and, for one breathtaking moment, all was right in the sports world.  LeBron got his comeuppance and America's team, a ragtag collection of NBA stars and misfits both young and old, eliminated the hated Heat.  A few days later, a sympathetic Alex Rodriguez urged critics to lay off the tormented superstar, maybe because he sees a lot of himself when he looks at the self-proclaimed King.  Now, little more than a year after "The Decision," I started thinking and came to the realization that Lebron is at virtually the same point Rodriguez was seven years ago, another instance when everything was right in the sports world.  I'm referring to October, 2004, of course, when Red Sox Nation, led by a long-haired collection of baseball stars and idiots, vanquished the Evil Empire once and for all. 

Upon further investigation, it became clear the two supremely-skilled-yet-incredibly-polarizing superstars shared incredibly remarkable career arcs, so let's hop in the DeLorean and gun it to 88, shall we?  I'll drive.

High School Success and #1 Draft Pick
A-Rod starred as a shortstop at Westminster Christian High School in Miami, hitting .419 with 90 steals in 100 games as a junior.  The phenom topped himself the following year as a first team prep All-American, tearing up the competition with a .505 average, nine home runs and 36 RBI in 33 games.  Regarded as the top baseball prospect in the nation, he was also a perfect 35 for 35 in steals and was drafted first overall by the Seattle Mariners in the stacked 1993 draft (included Derrek Lee, Billy Wagner, Torii Hunter, Chris Carpenter and Jason Varitek).

LeBron crafted a distinguished high school career at St. Vincent-St. Mary in Akron, where he led his team to back to back state titles as a freshman and sophomore.  He continued to improve during his junior year, gaining more attention and exposure before capping his senior year with a third state championship while averaging 31.6 points, 9.6 boards, 4.6 assists and 3.4 steals per game.  His hometown Cavaliers selected him with the first pick in the loaded 2003 draft (Carmelo Anthony, Chris Kaman, David West and future teammates Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh).

Fun fact: they were both named Gatorade National Player of the Year
Not so fun fact: both had rough childhoods with absent fathers

Immediate Superstardom and Popularity
A-Rod rode the fast track to The Show and made the majors as an 18 year-old.  He broke out in his third season, stuffing the stat sheet with a league leading 141 runs, 54 doubles, .358 average and 379 total bases to finish a close second in the AL MVP voting.  Became an immediate sensation in Seattle and was regarded as the game's top shortstop as well as one of its finest all-around players, especially after becoming just the third player ever to blast 40 homers and steal 40 bases when he had 42 and 46, respectively, in 1998.  Despite making the playoffs three times with talented teammates such as Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez and Randy Johnson, Rodriguez found a World Series ring to be elusive despite triple slashing .353/.389/.588 in his 13 postseason starts.

LeBron wasted no time establishing himself in The Association at the tender age of 18 by winning the 2003-2004 Rookie of the Year on the strength of 20.9 points, 5.9 rebounds and 5.5 dimes per game.  The following year he made the All-Star team and became a household name in his third season thanks a second place finish in the MVP race.  Began earning comparisons to Michael Jordan because of his combination of otherworldly talent and marketability, then won back to back NBA MVPs in 2009 and 2010.  Despite making the playoffs five consecutive seasons with talented teammates such as Mo Williams, Shaquille O'Neal and Antawn Jamison, King James found a championship ring to be elusive despite single-handedly willing Cleveland into the 2006 NBA Finals and never averaging fewer than 25.1/7.8/5.8 in a postseason.

Bad Decisions
After averaging 122 runs, 77 extra base hits, 115 RBI, a .956 OPS and 25 steals throughout his five full seasons (seven overall) in small-market Seattle where he was woefully underpaid, A-Rod became a free agent.  The Mariners couldn't afford their 25 year-old superstar, who promptly teased teams such as the New York Mets before signing a gargantuan 10 year, $252 million dollar contract with the Texas Rangers on December 16th, 2000.  "The Contract" eroded his impeccable reputation and polished image during his stint in Dallas (sixth largest TV market), where he became the poster-boy of the game's absurd greed, skyrocketing salaries, and growing disconnect between fans and the players they root for.  No longer appreciated for his talent and wildly unpopular, especially back in Seattle (where fans showered him in Monopoly money), Rodriguez was expected to perform at the highest level in order to earn his paycheck.  No one felt sorry for him when the Rangers, enslaved to his contract and unable to afford quality pitching, wallowed in last place.  He started taking performance enhancing drugs and constantly sulked, eventually pouting his way to the Yankees courtesy of Aaron Boone's shredded knee ligament.  Years later, Texas owner Tom Hicks would characterize Rodriguez's quarter billion dollar contract as a mistake.

After averaging 28 points and 7 rebounds/assists per game throughout his seven seasons in small-market Cleveland where he was woefully underpaid, LeBron quit on his team in the playoffs and became a free agent.  Cleveland couldn't afford the supporting talent their 25 year-old superstar required, who promptly teased teams such as the New York Knicks before informing America through "The Decision" on July 8th, 2010, that he would join fellow superstars Dwyane Wade (proven winner in Miami, home of the 16th largest TV market) and Chris Bosh to form a Big Three.  "The Decision" was a PR disaster and instantly shattered his popularity and likeable image.  Overninght, he went from franchise savior to symbol of the game's changing landscape, a terrain of fraternization where stars align instead of collide. 

Stumbling on the Biggest Stage
A-Rod joined a veritable All-Star team in the Bronx, the richest squad in baseball that employed the services of Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Bernie Williams, Mariano Rivera (proven winners in New York) Hideki Matsui, Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi, Javier Vazquez and Mike Mussina for a whopping $185 million bucks.  Under the microscope in New York's fishbowl, his statistics took a small hit and he struggled with runners in scoring position.  He was expected to deliver another championship to New York but the Yanks (an outstanding regular season team that had its flaws--mediocre rotation, thin bullpen, reliance on offense and advanced age--exposed during the playoffs) infamously blew a 3-0 lead over Boston in the ALCS.  Rodriguez disappeared, going 2-17 during those four consecutive losses and having his masculinity questioned when he slapped the ball out of Arroyo's glove.

Intensely scrutinized, no longer appreciated for his talent and wildly unpopular, especially back in Cleveland (where fans doused his jerseys in flaming gasoline), James was expected to lead his team to a championship.  His statistics took a small hit and he struggled during late game crunch time.  The world rejoiced when the Heat (a great regular season team that had its flaws--no point guard, no center, no bench, and streaky shooting--exposed during the playoffs) crumbled like a stale cookie in the Finals.  He made promises he couldn't deliver (eight championships?  Who do you think you are; Bill Russell?), went MIA during fourth quarters and shot his mouth off through Twitter and postgame press conferences.  Even worse, critics questioned his mental toughness and absence of a Kobe Bryant killer instinct.

What's Next?
A-Rod used his playoff meltdown as motivation and came back with a vengeance in 2005, winning his second MVP award in three years on the strength of a monster season (league leading 124 runs, 48 taters, .610 slugging percentage and 1.031 OPS).  His postseason and off the field issues (strippers, divorce, Madonna) would continue, however, and he was unfairly branded as a choker (despite previous demonstration os postseason dominance) before you could say "oh-for-four."  He hit rock bottom in February, 2009 when his PED use was exposed by Sports Illustrated and he became even more despised.  Only after the lowest of lows would Rodriguez bask in the glory of a World Series title when he earned his ring after becoming a one man wrecking crew that fall at the age of 34, a redemption comparable to Andy Dusfrene's.  A-Rod flourished off the field as well by keeping his mouth shut, avoiding controversey, and repairing his icy relationship with Derek Jeter.

James is likely to return strong when the lockout ends because he was humbled on the league's biggest stage (he hasn't been sitting around watching Sportscenter all summer).  Hopefully he's matured a bit and won't take his talent for granted, especially if his latest failure lights a fire under him and supplies extra motivation to improve his game.  The 2011 Finals may have been his rock bottom, or it might just be the first in a line of disappointments in Miami.  Like A-Rod in 2004, Bron-Bron seems guaranteed to win multiple championships, but he's also been unfairly saddled with the choker label (despite previous demonstration of postseason dominance).  Only time will tell if he can eventually win a title without crawling through 500 yards of unimaginable foulness to get there. 

Because if he waits until he's 34, he'll need a cane and walker by the time he wins that eighth ring.