2015 MVP Predictions

AL MVP: Mike Trout

It’s a well-known fact that Mike Trout is the best all-around player in baseball. His combination of elite power, speed, and defense at a premium position is unmatched in the game today. 

Trout is the total package. Over the past three years he has been the sport's best hitter on a league and park-adjusted basis, leading all of baseball with a 170 wRC+ (meaning he created 70 percent more runs than a league average hitter would have in the same number of plate appearances) while also ranking first inbaserunning value. Not surprisingly, he has produced more offensive value in the last three years than anyone else, all while playing a solid, if sometimes spectacular, center field. 

As such, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs ranked Trout as baseball’s most valuable player in each of thepast three seasons based on wins above replacement (WAR). This trio of standout seasons has resulted in three straight All-Star nods and impressive MVP results for Trout, who was runner-up to Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and 2013 before winningunanimously last season, becoming the youngest player ever to do so. 

While Trout is clearly a superstar according to these advanced metrics, his excellence is also apparent in the traditional stats that voters love. Since the start of the 2012 season he ranks first in runs scored, second in slugging percentage, third in on-base percentage, fifth in RBI (a favorite stat of MVP voters), seventh in home runs, and eighth in steals and batting average.   

Playing time is an important factor in MVP voting as well, and Trout is no slouch in this regard. Athletic, durable, and built like a tank, he’s never spent a day on the Disabled List and played in 157 of a possible 162 games in each of the last two years. Trout has a clean bill of health and should have no problems staying on the field this year. 

It also helps that Trout plays for a great team in a big market: the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels had the best record in baseball last year, winning 98 games and cruising to the AL West title by a 10 game margin over the Oakland A’s. With their two most serious challengers, the A’s and Seattle Mariners, failing to considerably improve so far this offseason, LA has to be considered favorites to repeat as division champs. And with star teammates Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton indecline, Trout is obviously the best and most indispensable player on the Halos, and thus will continue to fare well in MVP voting.  

Lastly, since Trout is just 23 years old, he’s still at an age where he should be getting better, not worse. He’s still a few years away from what are traditionally considered to be a player’s prime years (ages 25-29). Health permitting, Trout is poised to be a force in MVP voting for another decade.

NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen 

Andrew McCutchen is the National League’s answer to Mike Trout; a supremely gifted all-around center fielder at the top of his game. Per the FanGraphs version of WAR, McCutchen has been the second-most valuable position player since the start of the 2012 season, trailing only the aforementioned Angels superstar. Like Trout, ‘Cutch has won an MVP in a landslide and came close two other times. So long as he’s healthy, McCutchen figures to be a strong candidate again in 2015. 

Though McCutchen’s offensive statistics are not always overwhelming—he has just one 30-homer season on his resume and has never knocked in 100 runs—he’s produced far more offensive value than any other National Leaguer over the past three years. He owns the league’s highest batting average, on-base percentage, and wRC+ during that span, as well as its third-highest slugging percentage and weighted on-base average (wOBA).  In fact, McCutchen is the only major leaguer to exceed a .300 batting average, .400 OBP, and .500 SLG in all three of those seasons. Like Trout, he received three Silver Sluggers for those same seasons as well. 

McCutchen is also a very good baserunner, having stolen no less than 18 bases in all six of his big league seasons and averaging 24 per year at a 74 percent success rate. His defense, while not highly rated by advanced metrics, passes the “eye test” (meaning he looks like a good fielder to the casual observer) and was rewarded with a Gold Glove in 2012. 

Last season’s short DL-stint notwithstanding, McCutchen has also been exceptionally durable throughout his career. He played at least 154 games every year from 2010 to 2013. After spending the minimum 15 days on the Disabled List with a rib injury last August, he suffered no drop-off in his performance after returning and helped lead Pittsburgh back to the postseason by posting a1.042 OPS in September. And at 28 years old, McCutchen is squarely in his prime coming off four consecutive All-Star seasons, so one would not expect his performance to fall drastically this year. 

Although the Pirates do not play in a big market, they are a relevant team due to their recent success. They’ve finished second in the NL Central each of the last two seasons, making the playoffs both years after going 20 seasons (1993-2012) without a postseason berth. Their division will be more crowded this year with the emergence of the Cubs and a likely rebound from the Reds, but Pittsburgh boasts a young, quality team that should be in the mix for several more years at least. And because the Pirates are built around depth more so than star power, McCutchen is far and away the best player on his team, which guarantees MVP consideration if they do well. 

McCutchen might not be as much of a sure thing as Trout, especially if Giancarlo Stanton has another monster season or Bryce Harper puts it all together, but he’s pretty much guaranteed to be in the running for the next few years. If he doesn't win in 2015, he'll at least come close.

McCutchen MVP No More

With McCutchen and Tulowitzki sidelined, the NL MVP is Puig's for the taking

For most of the year it looked like Troy Tulowitzki was going to walk away with NL MVP honors on the strength of his terrific hitting and superlative defense at shortstop. Then he got hurt, as he always does, and his annual trip to the DL has cost him almost three weeks and counting. The injury, combined with his team's last place standing, knocks him off the top of the MVP pyramid. Barring a repeat of his September 2010 performance (15 homers, 40 RBI) he ain't winning.

The next best candidate appeared to be last year's MVP, Andrew McCutchen, but now it seems safe to say that he won’t be the MVP again in 2014. With a fractured rib shelving him for 3-4 weeks and possibly into September, McCutchen’s hopes of repeating were effectively dashed. So with the door wide open, who’s next in line?

Clayton Kershaw’s now the odds-on favorite, and with the kind of season he's having there's a pretty good chance he pulls a Justin Verlander by copping both the Cy Young and MVP awards. (Quick aside, if those ill-fated 2011 Red Sox roll through September the way they did the rest of that season, Jacoby Ellsbury probably wins that MVP. If Boston had won 100 games while playing in baseball’s toughest division, like they were on pace to do, there's no way the MVP goes to a pitcher whose team could have won its division with an 81-81 record. And if Verlander wins 19 games instead of 24, it's not even a discussion).

But Kershaw's missed more than month and that has to be a big strike against him. Obviously if he continues to dominate down the stretch he’ll have a great case, one worth overlooking the lost time. That said, voters have always been more inclined to favor position players rather than pitchers, who already have a hard enough time as it is winning the MVP when they’re healthy. You might recall that before Verlander, a starting pitcher hadn't been named MVP since Roger Clemens in 1986. Position players can afford to miss time and still earn the hardware (see Mickey Mantle in 1962 or Josh Hamilton in 2010), but pitchers, because they pitch so infrequently, aren't granted that same latitude. I can’t remember the last time a starting pitcher missed a good chunk of time and went on to win the MVP, which leads me to believe Kershaw will have a difficult time pulling it off. But if he goes off an another scoreless innings streak, all bets are off.

I also think that in today’s offense-challenged climate, a big bat is more valuable that a good arm. It’s elite hitting, not starting pitching, that’s in short supply, so a guy who can hit .300 with good power and gets on base is especially valuable. I think if you take away Kershaw and replace him with an average pitcher, then Zack Greinke’s the ace (of a staff with Hyun-jin Ryu, Josh Beckett, and Dan Haren) and the Dodgers are still okay.  Maybe they don't win the division, but they're still a playoff team. Remove Yasiel Puig from LA's lineup, however, and I’m not convinced they score enough runs to make their pitching stand up, not with injuries to Carl Crawford and Hanley Ramirez and poor seasons from A.J. Ellis, Andre Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez, and Matt Kemp (who's only been good recently).

So this is a long-winder, roundabout way of saying that the best remaining MVP candidate is Puig, who’s having a Mike Trout-lite season, so to speak. His .316/.400/.540 batting line is huge, especially for someone who plays half his games in Dodger Stadium (which is reflected by his 165 OPS+). With 4.0 bWAR, Puig has been his team's best position player by far, propping up a star-studded lineup that's under-performed its talent level. And while he doesn't lead the league in anything, he's in the top 10 for almost everything and should only climb higher with Tulo and 'Cutch on the mend.

Puig would boost his chances significantly by making up the distance between him and those two. Time is on his side and ripe for him to raise his stock. But he must keep hitting. He needs to rediscover the power stroke that has all but abandoned him since late May (two homers and 16 RBI in his last 56 games). He has to finish strong.

Because if he doesn't, then it's going to be that much easier to choose Kershaw.

2012 All Breakout Team (NL)

A look back at some of the top breakouts in the National League from 2011.  Rookies are ineligible, so you won't find the likes of Bryce Harper, Wade Miley, Todd Frazier or Kris Medlen below. For the most part, I tried not to include guys who were already established big league stars that took their games to new heights, a la Buster Posey, Yadier Molina, and Matt Cain.

C Carlos Ruiz
The first time All-Star was one of the few bright spots in an otherwise disappointing year for the Philadelphia Phillies. At the ripe old age of 33, Ruiz rode a monster first half to a career year highlighted by his .Mike Piazza-esque 325/.394/.540 batting line. There were stretches early in the season when it seemed like he was the only Philly inflicting any damage with his bat.

1B Allen Craig
Craig's potential was on display during his injury-shortened 2011 season and again throughout the Cardinals' championship run. He missed more time in 2012--all of April and two weeks in May--but when healthy he was one of the better hitters in the National League. In just 119 games he belted 22 home runs, knocked in 92 runs and batted .307 while manning first base in place of a wounded Lance Berkman. Also gave some thought to Paul Goldschmidt here.

2B Jose Altuve
The diminutive second baseman makes Dustin Pedroia look big, but his lack of size didn't stop him from batting .290 and making his first All-Star team at the tender age of 22. Houston's leadoff hitter was also aggressive on the basepaths, stealing 33 bases to help make up for his lack of power (.399 SLG). The speedy keystone is a great building block for the 'Stros as they rebuild their team around young talent.

3B Chase Headley
Headley put together a monster offensive season not seen in San Diego since Adrian Gonzalez. The switch-hitting third baseman entered 2012 with just 36 home runs and a .392 slugging percentage to his name before morphing into Chipper Jones. Produced a six-win season on the back of his 31 home runs and league-leading 115 RBI. Won his first Gold Glove and Silver Slugger on his way to a fifth place finish in the NL MVP voting. If he could just get out of Petco (.695 OPS there compared to .836 everywhere else) he'd be a star. Honorable Mention goes to Pedro Alvarez, who launched 30 home runs in his first full season with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

SS Ian Desmond
After a pair of disappointing seasons in 2010 and 2011, Washington's shortstop busted out this year. His power--25 circuit drives and a .511 SLG, both figures topped the position--developed to supplement his already solid defense and baserunning. Was one of three shortstops to go 20/20 this season, along with Jimmy Rollins and Hanley Ramirez. Expect another strong performance in 2013, his age 27 season. Jed Lowrie was headed for a breakout year as well before a sprained ankle cost him two months of games post-All-Star Break.

OF Garrett Jones
The quintessential late bloomer, Jones appeared in his first major league game at the age of 25 and didn't play his first full season until he was 29. While he's been a steady source of power during his time in the bigs, low batting averages and high strikeout totals cut into his value. In 2012 he managed to cut down on his whiff rate and boost his average to .274 while smacking a career high 27 home runs and tying his personal best with 86 RBI. Those numbers remind me of a typical Adam LaRoche season.

OF Andrew McCutchen
'Cutch had already flashed the tools that alluded to his Matt Kemp potential, but he finally put them all together this year with an MVP caliber season. His 194 hits, 269 times on base and 7.5 Offensive WAR paced the NL, but that's just the tip of the iceberg. He ranked second in runs scored, total bases, batting average, and OPS+ while rating third in OBP and SLG, all while playing Gold Glove defense in center and keeping the Pirates in the playoff picture for most of the summer.

OF Dexter Fowler
Colorado's center fielder took a big step forward in 2012 when he batted a career best .300/.389/.474 with double digit totals in doubles, triples, homers, and stolen bases. Statistically speaking, he was the NL's equivalent of Austin Jackson (minus the superlative defense). Not as good as Carlos Gonzalez, but turns 27 this spring and could be in line for another strong season.

SP R.A. Dickey
Sneaky good in 2010 and '11 but became a household name and Cy Young winner in 2012. Made his first All-Star team following a dominant first half reminiscent of Ubaldo Jimenez's 2010. Matt Cain started the Midsummer Classic even though Dickey was 12-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.93 WHIP at that point. Predictably, he leveled off a bit in the season's final three months, but still pitched well enough to finish with outstanding overall numbers. He won 20 games while pacing the league in innings, shutouts, complete games, and strikeouts. Most impressively, the 38 year-old knuckleballer entered the season with a career 5.5 K/ rate but whiffed nearly a batter per inning in 2012 and fanned almost as many hitters as he did in his previous two seasons combined. It will be interesting to see how he fares against American League competition in 2013.

SP Gio Gonzalez
After a couple solid seasons with Oakland, Gonzalez emerged as one of the NL's top pitchers in his debut with the Washington Nationals. He finished third in the Cy Young race behind Dickey and Clayton Kershaw after leading the majors with 21 wins and his 0.4 HR/9. He also posted the best strikeout rate in the NL, outpitched Stephen Strasburg and helped lead the Nats to the best record in baseball.

SP Jonathon Niese
Was overshadowed by rotation-mates Dickey and Johan Santana, but was clearly the team's second best starter behind Dickey. Trimmed a full run of his 2011 ERA (4.40 to 3.40), posted a 1.17 WHIP and struck out more than three batters for every walk. With Dickey in Toronto and Santana in decline, look for Niese to step up and lead the rotation in 2013.

SP Lance Lynn
In his first year in the St. Louis Cardinals' rotation, the 25 year-old helped fill in the void left by Chris Carpenter by winning 18 of his 29 starts and making the All-Star team. Had 180 strikeouts in 176 innings, but will have to fight to keep his spot in a crowded rotation next season.

SP Homer Bailey
After several disappointing years, the former first round draft pick finally emerged as a reliable mid-rotation workhorse. He made all 33 starts, surpassed 200 innings for the first time in his career and maintained a 3.23 K/BB ratio. Was overshadowed by Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos, but he looks like a solid frontline starter for years to come.

RP Craig Stammen
His career got off to a rough start, but the Nationals reliver rebounded with a strong 2012. Struck out almost a batter per inning and went 6-1 out of Washington's bullpen with a 2.34 ERA.

CL Jason Motte
Tony LaRussa's retirement opened the door for Motte to be the Cardinals' regular closer, and he did not disappoint. Besides leading the National League with 42 saves, Motte posted a 0.92 WHIP and a 5.06 K.BB ratio in Mike Matheny's first year at the helm. Had all of twelve career saves prior to 2012.

CL Aroldis Chapman
Cincinatti's flamethrowing southpaw stepped into the closer's role to replace the departed Francisco Cordero. After two years of teasing the baseball world with his superhuman velocity, the Cuban Missile polished his shaky command (6.5 BB/9 rate entering the season) and challenged Craig Kimbrel for the title of baseball's best closer. Chapman dominated opponents, holding them to a .141 batting average and fanning 122 of them in his 68 appearances. The first time All-Star saved 38 games with his tidy 1.51 ERA and 0.81 WHIP while also picking up MVP and Cy Young consideration. He's the Justin Verlander of relievers.

To see last year's NL breakouts, go here

Melky Cabrera Forfeits Batting Title

Thanks for giving up the batting title, Melky. How about that All-Star Game MVP?

In an unprecedented but well-received gesture, Melky Cabrera voluntarily disqualified himself from the 2012 National League batting race.  The All-Star Game MVP is currently serving a 50 game suspension triggered when he violated the MLB drug policy by testing positive for performance enhancing drugs. His .346 average leads the major leagues, and he was poised to join another cheater--Barry Bonds--as the only members of the San Francisco Giants to win a batting crown in this millennium.

The battle for the batting title now becomes a two man race between MVP candidates Andrew McCutchen and Buster Posey, Cabrera's partner in crime.  Pittsburgh's centerfielder leads San Francisco's backstop .338 to .335, but there is still a week and a half of baseball yet to play.  At the moment, these two seem to be trending in opposite directions. McCutchen was batting as high as .373 on August 1st, but since then has batted an uninspiring .263 as his Pirates plummeted out of the playoff picture.  Over that same span, Posey batted a robust .370 and is showing no signs of slowing down.  There's history to be made here; he's trying to become the first National catcher to capture a batting title since Ernie Lombardi did it in 1942.  Besides Lombardi, Bubbles Hargrave is the only other Senior Circuit receiver with a batting title under his belt.  Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, and Mike Piazza never won one (and Piazza batted .362 one year, for crying out loud, albeit at the height of the Steroid Era. A Coors Field-aided Larry Walker edged him in both the batting race and the MVP race that year).

Obviously this competition could go either way, and will likely be decided by a handful of hits.  It could come down to a single base knock--who legs out that infield single or bloops a flare in front of a charging outfielder. I'm tempted to think Posey will continue his torrid second half and pass McCutchen, as Miguel Cabrera did to Adrian Gonzalez last year. Nevertheless, I'm putting my money on 'Cutch.  He's started to heat up again in September, and even though he probably won't see too many good pitches to hit I think he can hold off Posey down the stretch.  Like Mike Trout, Posey has been so hot for so long that I feel like he's due to hit a speed bump sooner or later.  And, since he has fewer at-bats than McCutchen, an 0-for-4 day at the plate has a greater impact on his batting line (by that some token, so does a 4-for-4).

I'm just glad Cabrera was wise enough to step down and allow a (presumably) clean player to capture the batting title.  He made the correct call by accepting the consequences of his actions. It would have been wrong for him to accept a "tainted" award for an enhanced performance, just as it would have been wrong for Ryan Braun to keep his 2011 MVP trophy had he been forced to serve his own 50 game suspension in the spring (Matt Kemp deserved it anyways, but Braun's going to get screwed over in this year's voting, so it evens out).

Cabrera can't undo what he did, just as he can't take back all the runs he scored or all the games he helped the Giants win.  But give him credit for changing the outcome of something he could still control.

McCutchen Mashing Way to MVP

McCutchen struggled in August but has gotten his groove back (ESPN)

For much of the summer, Andrew McCutchen seemed to have a stranglehold on the National League MVP race.  His Pirates were winning, his stats were off the charts, and he was unquestionably the best player in the Senior Circuit.  From May 8th through August 8th, a span of 81 games (exactly half a season) he batted .393, belted 23 home runs, and slugged .700 (by comparison, Mike Trout batted .335 with 19 home runs and a ..611 slugging percentage during that same timeframe). The dread-locked five tool stud had developed into this year's Matt Kemp, a beast at the plate, on the basepaths and in the field.  This stellar all-around performance helped push Pittsburgh into the playoff hunt, for they led the second wild card with less than two months to go.


But then McCutchen cooled off, and the Bucs followed suit.  Over the next month 'Cutch batted a miserable .231 with only one home run, a summer swoon that may end up costing him his Most Valuable Player trophy.  Meanwhile the Pirates sputtered, enduring another late season collapse as the wheels came off their once promising season.  16 games above .500 as recently as six weeks ago, they're now saddled with losing record for the first time since late May.  They have been the worst team in the National League over that span and yes, that means even the lowly Houston Astros have outplayed them.  As a result, Pittsburgh's playoff chances have plummeted to half a percent.  They trail St. Louis for the second wild card by 5.5 games with 13 left to play, and barring some last-minute divine intervention will fall short of the postseason.  Now all the Bucs can do is try to avoid their 20th consecutive losing season dating back to the departure of Barry Bonds.

While the Pirates continued to fade in September, McCutchen is doing everything he can to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.   After that lengthy power outage the 25 year-old has re-emerged and once again looks locked in at the plate.  With six home runs in his previous eleven games, the Pirates center fielder has vaulted himself back into the MVP race with Ryan Braun and Buster Posey.  He now leads the National League in runs (102), hits (185) and bWAR (6.8--tied with Yadier Molina).  The two-time All-Star smacked his 30th home run of the season in yesterday's 9-7 loss to Milwaukee with a three-run jack off Mike Fiers, putting him on track to reach the century mark in RBI by the end of the season (he has 92).  Heck, with a strong finish he could still potentially wrestle the batting title away from Melky Cabrera, whom he trails .346 to .339.

Like Kemp last year, McCutchen clearly deserves the hardware based on his magnificent individual performance. The question is, will the voters overlook his team's horrific play during the season's most crucial  stretch?  Kemp was victimized by the Dodgers' lackluster record last season, but hopefully McCutchen will not suffer the same fate.  Unlike Los Angeles, the Pirates were in contention for much of the year, and that should still count for something even if they end the year with a losing record.

Besides, stiffing McCutchen would just add insult to injury for the Pirates and their fans, who have been forced to watch the same bad movie two seasons in a row. Last year they watched their team surge into first place in late July.  It didn't matter that their success was unsustainable, or that they lacked the pitching depth and offensive firepower necessary to survive the dog days of August. It made for great drama, and PNC park filled up with fans hoping the Pirates could at least   They were the talk of the town, the feel good story of the summer. And then, suddenly, they weren't.  After dropping a 19 inning marathon in Atlanta, the Pirates turned into pumpkins.  They were the worst team in the National League from July 25th onward as they skidded to a 72-90 record.  They never again won more than two games in a row.  The magic show was over.

And as their season went south, so did McCutchen's.  Following an impressive first half (.894 OPS), he disappeared after the All-Star Break.  Opponents took advantage of his weak supporting cast and pitched around him, but an impatient McCutchen abandoned his plate discipline and started going fishing.  You could see the face of the franchise pressing, trying to save Pittsburgh's season single-handedly. The pressure of trying to keep a sinking ship afloat seemed to wear him down.  The budding superstar limped to the finish line, batting an anemic .216/.330/.392 while striking out in more than a quarter of his at-bats.

This time around, McCutchen is ending his season on a high note.  It probably won't be enough to salvage Pittsburgh's season, but it should be enough to push him over the top in the MVP race.
.