2013 Puig vs 2014 Puig

Last year as a 22 year-old rookie, Yasiel Puig played 104 games. This year as a 23 year-old sophomore he's played 104 games so far, and the results have been...almost identical. Still the same awesome numbers, electrifying throws, and jaw-dropping bat flips. Still the same shaky defense, baserunning errors and Robinson Cano-esque lapses in focus that lead to boneheaded mistakes like this one.

But when you're a superstar rookie, as Puig was, then staying the same is hardly a bad thing. Certainly not when you put up numbers like these:

First 104 games: 432 PA 122 H 19 HR 42 RBI 11 SB .319/.391/.534 159 OPS+ 4.9 bWAR
Last 104 games: 447 PA 123 H 13 HR 55 RBI 7 SB .313/.400/.540 165 OPS+ 4.0 bWAR

Puig's done well to improve as a hitter by boosting his walk rate and cutting down his strikeouts. Now if he could just make similar strides in his baserunning and fielding, he'd be the National League's answer to Mike Trout.

McCutchen MVP No More

With McCutchen and Tulowitzki sidelined, the NL MVP is Puig's for the taking

For most of the year it looked like Troy Tulowitzki was going to walk away with NL MVP honors on the strength of his terrific hitting and superlative defense at shortstop. Then he got hurt, as he always does, and his annual trip to the DL has cost him almost three weeks and counting. The injury, combined with his team's last place standing, knocks him off the top of the MVP pyramid. Barring a repeat of his September 2010 performance (15 homers, 40 RBI) he ain't winning.

The next best candidate appeared to be last year's MVP, Andrew McCutchen, but now it seems safe to say that he won’t be the MVP again in 2014. With a fractured rib shelving him for 3-4 weeks and possibly into September, McCutchen’s hopes of repeating were effectively dashed. So with the door wide open, who’s next in line?

Clayton Kershaw’s now the odds-on favorite, and with the kind of season he's having there's a pretty good chance he pulls a Justin Verlander by copping both the Cy Young and MVP awards. (Quick aside, if those ill-fated 2011 Red Sox roll through September the way they did the rest of that season, Jacoby Ellsbury probably wins that MVP. If Boston had won 100 games while playing in baseball’s toughest division, like they were on pace to do, there's no way the MVP goes to a pitcher whose team could have won its division with an 81-81 record. And if Verlander wins 19 games instead of 24, it's not even a discussion).

But Kershaw's missed more than month and that has to be a big strike against him. Obviously if he continues to dominate down the stretch he’ll have a great case, one worth overlooking the lost time. That said, voters have always been more inclined to favor position players rather than pitchers, who already have a hard enough time as it is winning the MVP when they’re healthy. You might recall that before Verlander, a starting pitcher hadn't been named MVP since Roger Clemens in 1986. Position players can afford to miss time and still earn the hardware (see Mickey Mantle in 1962 or Josh Hamilton in 2010), but pitchers, because they pitch so infrequently, aren't granted that same latitude. I can’t remember the last time a starting pitcher missed a good chunk of time and went on to win the MVP, which leads me to believe Kershaw will have a difficult time pulling it off. But if he goes off an another scoreless innings streak, all bets are off.

I also think that in today’s offense-challenged climate, a big bat is more valuable that a good arm. It’s elite hitting, not starting pitching, that’s in short supply, so a guy who can hit .300 with good power and gets on base is especially valuable. I think if you take away Kershaw and replace him with an average pitcher, then Zack Greinke’s the ace (of a staff with Hyun-jin Ryu, Josh Beckett, and Dan Haren) and the Dodgers are still okay.  Maybe they don't win the division, but they're still a playoff team. Remove Yasiel Puig from LA's lineup, however, and I’m not convinced they score enough runs to make their pitching stand up, not with injuries to Carl Crawford and Hanley Ramirez and poor seasons from A.J. Ellis, Andre Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez, and Matt Kemp (who's only been good recently).

So this is a long-winder, roundabout way of saying that the best remaining MVP candidate is Puig, who’s having a Mike Trout-lite season, so to speak. His .316/.400/.540 batting line is huge, especially for someone who plays half his games in Dodger Stadium (which is reflected by his 165 OPS+). With 4.0 bWAR, Puig has been his team's best position player by far, propping up a star-studded lineup that's under-performed its talent level. And while he doesn't lead the league in anything, he's in the top 10 for almost everything and should only climb higher with Tulo and 'Cutch on the mend.

Puig would boost his chances significantly by making up the distance between him and those two. Time is on his side and ripe for him to raise his stock. But he must keep hitting. He needs to rediscover the power stroke that has all but abandoned him since late May (two homers and 16 RBI in his last 56 games). He has to finish strong.

Because if he doesn't, then it's going to be that much easier to choose Kershaw.

Puig's Performance 162 Games In

Puig's been dominant in his first full major league season (ESPN)

We have officialy seen a full season from Yasiel Puig, and the results have been spectacular.

After his eye-popping debut last year and torrid start to this season, Puig's posted some incredible statistics through his first full big league season. In fact, Puig's numbers through his first 162 games look an awfully lot like the ones Mike Trout compiled through his first 162 games, and in some respects are even better. See for yourself:

Trout: 192 H 30 2B 6 3B 32 HR 93 RBI 62 BB 148 K.309/.374/.531 10.9 bWAR
Puig:   195 H 37 2B 5 3B 30 HR 82 RBI 67 BB 145 K .324/.405/.552 7.7 bWAR

Puig's career numbers eerily similar to Trout's figures from his monster 2012 season, when he batted .326/.399/.564 with 30 homers, 83 RBI and 67 BB en route to winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award and placing second to Miguel Cabrera in a hotly contested MVP race.

Though Puig is a year-and-a-half older than Trout (who's still the superior player because of his better defense and speed), it doesn't diminish the fact that he's off to one of the best starts in big league history. Love him or hate him, you have to admit that he's a special, one-of-a-kind player who will wind up in the Hall of Fame if he keeps doing what he's doing.

The Dodgers' Pricey Outfield

I read something that blew my mind today. The Los Angeles Dodgers have upwards of $57 million committed to three outfielders this year: Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, and Andre Ethier. In other words, the Dodgers are giving those three guys close to what the Chicago Cubs and Minnesota Twins paid their entire teams last year, not to mention more than the Astros and Marlins combined.

That wasn't what surprised me though. The Dodgers are the richest team in baseball by far and will spend around $250 million this season. They seem to have infinite money; with a roster that includes four players earning over $20 million apiece and another six set to earn more than 10, they were still able to dig deep and give Clayton Kershaw a $215 million contract extension, then make Masahiro Tanaka an offer. Theirs is a team built around expensive talent

No, what shocked me was that the Dodgers have so much money tied up in those three--about $300 million in future salary commitments if Ethier's vesting option kicks in--and none of them are very good anymore. Or at least they weren't last year, when they were worth about five bWAR put together. A few years ago, that outfield would have been a superb collection of talent. All have Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, All-Star appearances, and serious MVP consideration on their resumes. They all brought something different to the table: Crawford had ridiculous speed, Kemp blended speed with power, and Ethier got on base and hit for power.

Unfortunately for the Dodgers, it's not 2010 anymore. Their star-studded outfield has deteriorated to the point that somebody will need to accept a reduced role so Yasiel Puig can play everyday. If LA had succeeded in trading Kemp, then this wouldn't be an issue, but nobody was too interested in potentially damaged goods who's still due $130 mil over the next six seasons.

So who's it going to be? Puig saw action at all three outfield positions last year but spent the lion's share of his time in right, which would seem to push former Gold Glover Andre Ethier out. But Ethier proved he could play a halfway decent center field while Kemp was on the mend and had the best offensive season of the three. Kemp, a two-time Gold Glove winner in center, will need to prove himself by showing he can stay healthy. Crawford's been a left fielder all his life, spending 1,429 of his 1,468 career games there and winning a Gold Glove in 2010, but his offense is no longer worthy of a corner outfield spot.

Let's take a closer look at each one to try to figure this out:

The youngest, most talented and most expensive of the group is Kemp, who's set to make $21 million this year. That salary comes from the eight-year, $160 million deal he signed after his monster 2011, when he showed just how awesome he could be. Kemp put it all together that year, finishing runner-up to Ryan Braun in the MVP race after falling one home run shy of 40/40 and piling up 8.1 bWAR.

But injuries have ravaged his career since then, limiting him to 106 games in 2012 and just 73 last year, during which his power was non-existent. Health is a big question mark for Kemp going forward, and it remains to be seen if he can recapture the form that made him one of the game's best all-around players before last season. He's too young to write off and has the most bounce back potential of the three.

Then there's Crawford, who's going to cost LA $20 million and some change. Crawford, you might recall, signed his seven-year, $142 million contract with the Red Sox prior to their infamous 2011 disaster. Crawford struggled mightily that year and was hurt the next, causing Boston to dump him (along with Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez and Nick Punto) on the Dodgers in late August. He got off to a hot start last year, only to miss five weeks with a hamstring injury and bat an uninspiring .270/.307/.361 after returning in early July.

Since landing his huge payday, Crawford has not proven himself to be anywhere near the excellent player he was with Tampa Bay. Various injuries have knocked him out of the lineup too often, causing him to miss an average of 70 games per season over the past three. To make matters worse, he hasn't been very productive when he does play, as his 97 OPS+ and 2.3 bWAR in that time can attest. He can still run a bit and hit a little--skills that play well in Dodger Stadium--but doesn't do nearly enough of either to justify his massive salary. That doesn't figure to change much as he prepares to turn 33 this summer. He sucked against southpaws last year, managing a meager .551 OPS against them, and could be the odd man out if he doesn't show signs of rebounding.

Last but not least we have Andre Ethier, who just completed the first year of his ill-advised five-year, $85 million contract extension and will collect $15.5 million this season. Ethier was the most valuable of the trio last year by sheer virtue of staying healthy enough to play 142 games. That looks like far too many for a player who can't hit lefties to save his life (.613 OPS against them last year, .644 for his career) and doesn't offer much power (averaging 14 homers and 68 RBI over his last three seasons).

That said, Ethier is still a comfortably above average offensive player even if his traditional numbers leave something to be desired. He gets on base at a good clip--.360 OBP last year, .362 for his career--and hits lots of doubles, much like Nick Markakis. His bat, which produced a 122 OPS+ last year, was worth close to three wins by itself. So even though Ethier doesn't offer much in the way of speed or defense, he still hits enough to merit a spot in the everyday lineup (with off days coming against lefthanders, of course). He'll be 32 in April, so some decline should be expected.

So to sum it up, Crawford should be the one to sit at first. If I were Don Mattingly I'd keep Puig in right, Kemp in center, and shift Ethier to left. If Kemp breaks down again, let Ethier cover for him (or maybe even give Puig a shot at the glory position) and slide Crawford back to left. It hurts to spend more than $20 million on a fourth outfielder, but that's what teams have been doing with Vernon Wells for years. And besides, if any team can afford to eat that kind of money, it's the Dodgers.

Myers, Fernandez, and Puig

The Rays traded James Shields and Wade Davis for Myers last winter. It paid off

Baseball awards week kicked off tonight with the Rookie of the Year selections, and both choices were the correct ones.

In the American League, preseason favorite Wil Myers ran away with the award. Myers received 23 of the 30 first place votes for his outstanding (albeit abbreviated) campaign. Though he didn't debut until June 18th, the 22 year-old made the most of his shortened season. Myers mashed big league pitching to the tune of .293/.354/.478 (eerily similar to Eric Hosmer's rookie numbers).  He also popped 13 homers and knocked in 53 runs, providing some much-needed firepower for the offensively-starved Rays as well as another big bat to complement Evan Longoria. Just for fun (and to show how productive he was on a per-game basis) here's what his numbers project to over the course of a full season:

92 runs, 180 hits, 42 doubles, 23 homers, 92 RBI, 60 walks, 9 steals, 294 total bases

Those are fine numbers for anyone, let alone a 22-year old kid playing half his games in the pitching-friendly Tropicana Field. Myers had a huge impact on the Rays, who were in fourth place and just three games above .500 when he was called up, but went 56-38 (.596) with him on board. Tampa Bay probably doesn't make the playoffs without him.

Runner-up Jose Iglesias netted five first-place votes and 17 second-place votes. Some thought Iglesias, who logged significantly more playing time than Myers and batted .303 while playing superlative defense, deserved the hardware over Myers. FanGraphs and B-R both have Myers rated as more valuable per WAR because even though he played right field, he was far and away the superior hitter. Iglesias never walked and hit for no power whatsoever despite benefiting from friendly offensive environments in Boston and Detroit, so his 101 OPS+ pales in comparison to Myers' 132 mark.

The remaining pair of first place votes were split by starting pitchers: Myers' teammate Chris Archer and Oakland's Dan Straily. J.B. Schuck, Cody Allen, Martin Perez and David Lough also received consideration. Tampa Bay now has three rookies of the year on its roster: Myers, Longoria (2008) and Jeremy Hellickson ('11).

Fernandez was one of the few bright spots on a horrendous Marlins team

The National League race was even more lopsided, which was surprising given the insane levels of hype generated by Yasiel Puig this summer. Jose Fernandez dominated the voting, hauling in all but four first place votes (which went to Puig) for what was a historic rookie season. The Miami Marlins were god-awful this year, as expected, but Fernandez flourished into one of the league's best pitchers. Just 20 years-old at the season's outset, Fernandez got off to a shaky start (4.50 ERA in April) but quickly settled down and found his rhythm. He got better and better as the season wore on, being voted as the NL's top rookie in July and August. When he was shut down after making just two September starts in accordance with his team-enforced innings limit, Senior Circuit hitters breathed one big sigh of relief.

The former first round draft pick and Cuban defector had emerged not only as Miami's ace, but as a legitimate Cy Young candidate as well. He was all but unhittable, posting the lowest H/9 rate in the majors and holding opponents to .182/.257/.265 figures. His 2.19 ERA and 176 ERA+ ranked second only to Clayton Kershaw among big league pitchers, and his 9.75 K/9 was bested only by A.J. Burnett in the NL. His 0.98 WHIP placed him third, as did his 6.3 pitching WAR. Puig may have been the sexier choice, but there was no denying Fernandez's numbers.

Puig was ridiculously fun to watch, though, and had a tremendous season in his own right. He didn't debut until June 3rd and only got into 104 games, but that was more than enough to know that a new superstar had arrived. The 22 year-old Cuban batted .319/.391/.534, which translated to a robust 160 OPS+ and provided plenty of spark for an underachieving Dodgers club that seemed to have lost its way. His first month in the Show was absolutely off-the-charts, so much so that we were talking about him as an All-Star candidate based on four weeks worth of games. Even at the time it was ridiculous, but like Willie Mays or Bo Jackson, Puig was made for All-Star games. He was must-see TV the way Justin Verlander's starts are, the way Manny Ramirez and Barry Bonds' at-bats used to be.

The human highlight reel eventually cooled off, of course, but still managed to do something SportsCenter-worthy on a nightly basis. I can't think of a rookie baseball player in my lifetime, not even Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, who created as much excitement as Puig did. Everything he did, all the rocket throws, towering home runs and majestic bat flips, even the strikeouts, was jaw-dropping. When it comes to showmanship, he is without peer. It's going to be a blast watching him do his thing.

Extrapolate Puig's performance over a full season, as I did with Myers, and you get these numbers:

102 runs, 190 hits, 32 doubles, 29 homers, 17 steals, 317 total bases

That seems like a good baseline for his performance next year.

Apologies to remaining NL-vote getters Shelby Miller, Hyun-jin Ryu, Julio Teheran, Jedd Gyorko (what a finish!), Nolan Arenado, and Evan Gattis (great start!), but I've run out out of things to say about this year's rookie class.