Cubs Cleaning Up

Arrieta rode a historic second half to his first Cy Young award (MLB.com)

2015 was a pretty good year for the Cubs. Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber had outstanding debuts, Jake Arrieta evolved into one of the best pitchers in baseball, and Joe Maddon worked his usual magic from the dugout, guiding Chicago to 97 wins and the World Series championship that Back to the Future II predicted 26 years ago a postseason berth.

One would think the Cubbies won it all this year, based on how they've fared in the BBWAA awards thus far. On Monday it was announced that Bryant won NL Rookie of the Year unanimously. Tuesday brought the news that Joe Maddon had been named NL Manager of the Year, and Wednesday made it a three-peat when Jake Arrieta was voted NL Cy Young over Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. That streak will end today, however, as Anthony Rizzo doesn't stand a chance against Bryce Harper for NL MVP honors.

As I wrote yesterday, Bryant was an easy choice based on the way he dominated this year's rookie leaderboards. Maddon was also an obvious pick after helming the Cubs--a last place team the last two years--to its first playoff appearance of the Obama administration. 

But Arrieta, as many have written, was not an obvious choice by any stretch. In fact, I'm pretty sure he was the wrong one.

Let me backtrack a bit. There really was no wrong choice for this year's NL Cy Young, as Arrieta, Greinke, and Kershaw were all equally worthy. They all had different things going for them. Arrieta led the majors in wins, complete games, shutouts, hit rate, and home run rate, plus enjoyed the best second half any pitcher has ever had. Greinke was tops in winning percentage, ERA, ERA+, WHIP, and pitcher bWAR. Kershaw tied Arrieta for most complete games and shutouts while registering the most innings, strikeouts, and pitcher fWAR. He also had the major's lowest FIP and National League's best strikeout rate. In the end, who you voted for was a matter of personal taste. 

Since I'm on board with the whole sabermetrics thing, I prefer FIP to ERA. I like lots of strikeouts and few walks. I want to see a low WHIP. And I want to see all of those things sustained over a large workload.

I think you see where I'm going with this. Nobody combined quantity with quality this year like Kershaw. He was the best pitcher in baseball based on things pitchers can control (though I still don't buy the idea that pitchers can control home runs, as that's heavily influenced by weather and ballpark) and threw more innings than anyone else. No pitcher was more valuable, in my eyes, at least. 

I don't mean to take anything away from Arrieta, because he had a Cy-worthy season as well. I just can't help but wonder how the voting would have played out had the Cubs finished last again, or had Greinke not split the vote with his rotationmate (Kershaw wins if you give him half of Greinke's point total). Since it was pretty much impossible to tell which Dodger pitcher was better, that all but guaranteed the award would go to Arrieta--Chicago's clear ace.

I also think it's funny that for the second year in a row, a pitcher rode a big second half to Cy Young glory over a pitcher who I thought was more deserving. Last year saw Corey Kluber edge out Felix Hernandez, and this year Arrieta won despite having a 3.40 ERA through mid-June. It's also interesting that Kluber and Arrieta were both first-time winners who were rewarded for their first season of dominance, whereas Hernandez and Kershaw had both won before with superior seasons. I'm sure there are some voters out there who'd rather not vote for the same guy year after year, who instead try to pick the player with the better narrative. That's why Josh Donaldson will beat out Mike Trout for AL MVP, even though Trout's numbers are better than Donaldson's as well as the ones he posted during his MVP campaign last year.

Keuchel shut out the Yankees in the AL Wild Card game (MLB.com)

While big second halves helped Kluber and Arrieta capture their first Cy Young awards, a strong finishing kick did not help David Price secure his second.

I was both surprised and happy to see Dallas Keuchel eek by David Price in the American League. I thought Price would win after sparking Toronto's second-half turnaround, essentially pitching them to the postseason the way CC Sabathia did Milwaukee in 2008. I guess that's karma for Price stealing the 2012 Cy Young that Justin Verlander deserved. 

Of course, Keuchel was every bit as instrumental as Price in helping his team reach the playoffs. He was the American League's most valuable pitcher per bWAR (FanGraphs had Chris Sale, which I don't buy considering he threw 23 fewer innings with an ERA nearly a full run higher) and led the league in a host of categories, including innings, shutouts, ERA+, WHIP, and wins. 

Keuchel "won" 20 regular season games--the only AL starter to do so--but that total doesn't include Houston's most important game of the season--a do-or-die, single elimination game at Yankee Stadium for the right to advance to the ALDS. Keuchel was masterful, spinning six shutout innings and limiting the Bombers to just three hits in his first-ever postseason start. He was equally dominant in his lone ALDS turn, stifling the Royals to one run over seven frames as he helped Houston come within one win of the ALCS. That proved to be Keuchel's last start of 2015, as the Astros never got that last win.

I don't mean to say that Price would have been a poor pick. His numbers were nearly identical to Keuchel's, so as in the NL it was a toss-up. For me it was innings--Keuchel threw 11 and 2/3 more, or about a start and a half--that made Keuchel the superior candidate. That doesn't sound like much over the course of a season, but when you consider that Houston won the second wild card by one game over the Angels, those dozen innings might have been the difference. No American League starter had more of an impact than Keuchel, who led the loop in batters faced, and nobody was definitively better. Price was just as good, but he simply wasn't as dominant; the only stat he led in was ERA--by 0.03 over Keuchel, which of course means nothing over 162 games.

In both leagues the voters had to split hairs. I think they split the right ones in the AL but the wrong ones in the NL. 

NL Awards Preview: Can Kershaw Repeat?

Who deserves the NL MVP? That's a clown question, bro (CBS Sports)

First let me apologize, for the title and picture above are a little misleading. While technically an awards (plural) preview, 90 percent of this piece is devoted to the controversial Cy Young race. Whereas all three AL races are virtual toss-ups, the only tight one in the NL is for the Cy Young award, though it might be the closest I've ever seen. The MVP award has belonged to Bryce Harper since May, and Kris Bryant pulled ahead of Joc Pederson for rookie of the year honors months ago. That leaves us with the NL Cy Young, which could go to one of three candidates, two of whom are teammates.

You could argue any of them for MVP as well, but you really have to bend over backwards to find a way not to elect Bryce Harper. Because let's face it; Harper has been the league's undisputed MVP since Memorial Day. Head over to the NL leaderboards, and you'll see Harper's name in numerous top spots. Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs both rated him as the most valuable player in baseball per wins above replacement, which you might have figured based on his major league-leading .460 OBP, .649 slugging, 1.109 OPS, and 195 OPS+. The Nats were massive busts, they don't stay in contention into September without Harper's monster season.

The Rookie of the Year is also a foregone conclusion, having been Kris Bryant's to lose since his big league debut. Joc Pederson hung with him throughout the first half, only to tail off after the All-Star Break as his flaws became exposed. His 26 home runs, .346 OBP, and .206 ISO are nothing to sneeze at for a rookie center fielder, but his defense leaves a lot to be desired and he doesn't have make an impact with his legs the way most center fielders do (Mike Trout he is not).

Bryant's OPS was nearly 100 points higher than Pederson's, still a sizable advantage even after accounting for their home parks. Like Pederson he struck out a lot, but unlike Pederson he did more than just hit home runs when he made contact. He would have knocked in 100 runs had he been given his rightful place on the Opening Day roster, played a solid third base, and was actually a really good baserunner--with 13 steals and nearly a win's worth of value on the basespaths. More than just a slugger, he turned out to be a well-rounded player.

So yeah, if you choose anyone other than Harper and Bryant for these two awards, then you need to have your head examined. But the NL Cy Young race is the closest one in recent memory. Often times two candidates have very similar numbers, as Felix Hernandez and Corey Kluber did last year or Clayton Kershaw and R.A. Dickey did in 2012, but it's quite rare that a trio of pitchers post nearly identical stat lines, as Kershaw, Zack Greinke, and Jake Arrieta did this year. They finished top-three in WAR, ERA, and WHIP, among several other advanced stats. How on earth do you choose?

Joe Posnanski's right; I think who you vote for here says something about what you value in pitchers. If you value wins and strong second half performances, then Arrieta's your guy. If you stress run prevention and keeping runners off the bases, then you go Greinke. If you're all about defense-independent metrics, i.e. strikeouts and FIP, then awarding Kershaw his third straight Cy.

Wins are a garbage stat, so while it's cool that Arrieta racked up 22 of them, that honestly doesn't mean a thing to me. He could have won 12 and his candidacy wouldn't change in my eyes. I also don't buy into the whole reward someone for a big second half thing, since every game counts the same regardless of when it's played (in the regular season, that is). So while it's neat that he had the lowest second-half ERA ever, that doesn't strengthen his case in my eyes.

Where I do think Arrieta's being underrated is that he had the lowest hit and home run rate in the majors despite contending with Wrigley's friendly confines in half his starts. That's damn impressive given the way the ball flies there during the summer. It's equally impressive that his ERA was virtually identical to Greinke's, considering that a) Greinke calls Dodger Stadium home and b) the NL Central was the toughest division in baseball this year with three 90 win teams. Arrieta's environment was much more conducive to offense, and yet he allowed runs at nearly the same rate as Greinke. Arrieta also logged more innings, racked up more strikeouts, and compiled a lower FIP.

Still the best pitcher on the planet, Kershaw deserves his fourth Cy (My Weekly Sports)

According to FanGraphs, the only pitcher more valuable than Arrieta was Greinke's teammate Kershaw. That's because FG makes pitcher valuations based off DIPS, whereas B-R assesses pitchers based on how well they prevented runs. Since we know the latter is largely beyond a pitcher's control, influenced by a multitude of factors such as the weather, ballpark, hit sequencing, bad hops, defense behind him, and relievers that come in after him, I don't feel comfortable relying on ERA as a guide. I give more weight to stats like FIP and xFIP, which judge pitchers based on things they have more (but not total) control over; home runs, walks, and strikeouts.

By those measures, Kershaw comes out on top. His 1.99 FIP was the best in the majors, and his xFIP was right in line with last year's. Part of the reason both were so good was that he struck out 301 batters, becoming the first pitcher since 2002 to exceed 300 K's in a season. He also led the majors in innings pitched--an underrated stat--as well as complete games and shutouts, which I value because those are almost always wins.

As Jonah Keri wrote yesterday, the most useful stat in settling this whole debate is probably Deserved Run Average (DRA), created by the folks over at Baseball Prospectus. An all-encompassing stat similar to pitcher WAR (but better), DRA captures a pitcher's overall contribution to his team. By that metric, Kershaw is number one, though it's awfully close.

No matter how you slice it, it's a ridiculously tough call. There really should be a three-way tie, because they're all equally worthy. To pick one you have to split hairs, and depending on which hairs you split you'll get your answer. Mine is Kershaw, but yours probably isn't, and that's okay. I'm not trying to tell you why Greinke and Arrieta are the wrong choices, because they're not. There is no wrong choice. I just happen to think Kershaw's the best choice, and only by the slimmest of margins.

MLB September Storylines

Dodger aces Greinke (L) and Kershaw are players to follow in September (ESPN)

Labor Day weekend is upon us (seriously, how did that happen?), which means there's but one month left of the regular season. Even with most of the divisions and playoff races already decided, several exciting stories have yet to be played out. Will the Blue Jays win their division, thus ending the longest postseason drought in American professional sports? Can Houston hang on in the AL West? And just who is going to put themselves over the top in various award races?

Even if your team is toast and you can't wait for football to start, there's still enough going on to keep fans engaged into October. Here's a sample:

1. David Ortiz's march to 500 home runs
It's been another tough year for the Red Sox but another great one for Ortiz, who's closing in on his 500th career long ball. He has five to go which, given his feverish home run pace (23 taters in his last 70 games), shouldn't take too long.

2. Clayton Kershaw's quest for 300 strikeouts
As Jeff Sullivan noted yesterday, Kershaw's up to 251 K's on the year after fanning 15 Giants in Wednesday night's masterpiece. With five or six starts remaining, he has a chance to become the first pitcher since 2002 to eclipse 300 punchouts. If he does that, a third straight Cy Young award may be in the cards.

3. AL East showdown
As always, the AL East has become a dogfight between its top two teams, one being the Yankees of course. For once, however, the other combatant isn't Boston. It's the Blue Jays, currently clinging to a 1.5 game lead over the Bombers. Toronto will get every opportunity to widen the gap down the stretch with the rest of its games coming against sub-.500 teams and New York.  The Yankees have a similarly easy slate, however, so it wouldn't be surprising to see first place change hands several times over the next month.

4. How will the West be Won?
The fate of the AL West is still up in the air, for it's the only division where the third place team isn't more than 10 games out. It has been turned completely upside down this year, with Houston and Texas (both losers of 90+ games last year) rising to the top while Oakland and Seattle (winners of 88 and 87, respectively) sinking to the bottom. In between are last year's division champs--the Angels--still trying to find their way. LA's coming off a terrible August but could catch up if they play like they did in July. Houston's had control of first place for most of the year, but now find themselves holding on for dear life with a two game edge over the surging Rangers. So hold your breath, Astros fans, and don't exhale until this time next month.

5. Who will snag the second AL wild card?
The Pirates and Cubs have both NL wild card spots wrapped up, and whoever loses the Yankees-Blue Jays duel is guaranteed the first wild card in the AL. The second wild card berth, however, is very much up for grabs. Texas currently leads by one game over Minnesota, with Los Angeles and Tampa Bay looming not far behind. The Twins and Angels are fading fast, while the Rangers have rolled since trading for Cole Hamels. Fingers crossed for a tie, which would mean a play-in game for the play-in game!

6. Will Washington pull it together?
It's now or never for the Nats, who've hovered around .500 all summer and allowed the Mets to break away. They're still close enough (six games) that Washington could steal the division out from under them with a huge September, but time is dwindling. Which team will the Nationals be this month: the one that everyone predicted to win 100 games or the one that might wind up with a losing record? I say they finish strong but still miss the playoffs.

7. St. Louis shoots for 100
Improved parity has made 100-win teams increasingly rare--there were none in each of the past three seasons. Only one team has a legitimate shot to do it this year, and it's not the preseason favorites. The best team in baseball this year has been the St. Louis Cardinals, currently 86-47 and steaming towards their third straight division title. With 29 games remaining on their schedule, the Redbirds need only go .500 to reach the century mark.

8. Does anyone get to 50 homers?
There have been just two instances of a player surpassing 50 home runs during the past seven seasons, but it's possible we'll see two or more players crack that many this year. Nelson Cruz--last year's long ball champion and the current major league leader--needs 11 to get there while Chris Davis--the last to break the 50 barrier--is a dozen away. Look for Carlos Gonzalez, who's cranked 31 over the last three months, to make a run as well.

9. Award races
The AL MVP was seemingly Mike Trout's to lose until about a month ago, at which point he and his Angels went in the toilet while Josh Donaldson and the Blue Jays took off. Now Donaldson appears to have the upper hand, but that could change in an instant if Trout gets back to being himself and leads LA to the playoffs. The NL MVP belongs to Bryce Harper no matter how often Joey Votto reaches base, but Zack Greinke could become the second straight Dodger pitcher to win it if he continues to be lights-out in September.

Speaking of Greinke, he and Kershaw will duke it out for the NL Cy Young award. Wonder which Dodger (and former Cy) voters prefer; Greinke with his sparkling ERA or Kershaw and his gaudy strikeout totals and only slightly less-sparkling ERA? The AL trophy is probably going to Dallas Keuchel (who saw that one coming?), but don't count Chris Sale out just yet.

The AL Rookie of the Year race is a tight one too, with Carlos Correa, Miguel Sano, and Andrew Heaney all having strong cases. The NL field is a two-horse race between Joc Pederson and Kris Bryant, though Noah Syndergaard deserves consideration as well.

10. September call-ups
No matter where your team falls in the standings, it's worth checking in on them throughout September as their future stars get a first taste of the big leagues. For instance, Corey Seager made his major league debut last night.

LA: City of MVPs

As expected, Trout (left) and Kershaw walked away with league MVP honors (ESPN)

All hail Clayton Kershaw, king of the mound, the City of Angels, and the National League.

Already the best pitcher on the planet, Kershaw raised his game to new heights in 2014. Already earning comparisons to Sandy Koufax, another great Dodger lefty, Kershaw delivered a historic campaign that looks like it was lifted straight out of Koufax's prime. Already a three-time Cy Young recipient, Kershaw added a new piece of hardware to his trophy collection: the National League MVP, something no starting pitcher had won since Bob Gibson in 1968.

Despite missing more than a month early in the season, Kershaw was so dominant in his 27 starts that he still managed to lead all players in the Baseball-Reference version of WAR with 8.0. Though he fell just shy of 200 innings, he still topped the majors in wins (21) and complete games (6) while ranking seventh with 239 strikeouts.

And while Kershaw's counting stats were excellent, his rate stats were off the charts. His 1.77 ERA secured his record fourth straight ML-ERA crown and was the lowest by a pitcher since Pedro Martinez's 1.74 in 2000. His 1.81 FIP and 0.86 WHIP, both best in the bigs, were the fourth and seventh-best marks of the live ball era. His 10.8 K/9 ratio, 197 adjusted ERA+, and .875 winning percentage were all tops in baseball. His 7.71 K/BB ratio was the highest in the Senior Circuit, too.

That's why voters were willing to overlook the fact that he only started 27 games--the fewest ever by an MVP starting pitcher--and spent 41 consecutive days on the Disabled List (between his first start and his second)--also a record for an MVP.

While Kershaw was leading the Dodgers to the NL West division title, Mike Trout was doing the same for the city's American League team. Though he had a down season by his standards, Trout was the unanimous choice in the American League after helping the Angels to 98 wins and the best record in baseball. All Trout did was lead the majors in runs (115), total bases (338), and extra base hits (84), plus runs created (137) and oWAR (8.7) while patrolling center field for the Halos. He also paced the AL with 111 RBI, smashed 36 home runs, and stole 16 bases in 18 attempts. Altogether he was worth 7.9 bWAR this year, most in the American League.

This should be Trout's third straight award, but he had to settle for second the previous two years because of the voting bloc's affinity for Miguel Cabrera's shiny Triple Crown stats. But with Cabrera having an off year by his standards as well, the door was wide open for Trout to run away with the trophy, and that's exactly what he did. He was the clear favorite for most of the season, and was so good in the first half (1.012 OPS through July 20th) that he still won easily despite a poor second half (.249/.333/.485 and 84 strikeouts thereafter, not including his miserable postseason).

Just 23 years old, Trout became the youngest unanimous winner in baseball history and fifth-youngest overall. He is the first American League player to win unanimously since Ken Griffey Jr. in 1997. Trout joins Don Baylor (1979) and Vladimir Guerrero (2004) as the only Angels to win the award in team history, which dates back to 1961.

And if Trout keeps playing the way he has, he'll win at least a few more before he's through.

Kluber Robs King Felix

Hernandez deserved to win his second Cy Young, but didn't (RotoScout)

The races for the American League and National League Cy Young couldn't have been any different.

In the National League, Clayton Kershaw was the heavy favorite and won easily, securing his third Cy Young in four years (and, let's be honest, he deserved the 2012 award over R.A. Dickey too). It was Kershaw and everyone else, meaning a vote for Johnny Cueto or Adam Wainwright, while defensible, was clearly misguided.

The American League's top two candidates were virtually inseparable. They both had dominant seasons and compelling reasons, but in the end it came down to splitting hairs. In what was destined to be a photo finish, Corey Kluber beat out Felix Hernandez. Kluber nabbed 17 of the 30 first place votes and 169 points, edging out the 13 and 159 compiled by King Felix. Chris Sale finished a distant third with 78 points.

Looking at Hernandez's stats, it's hard to see how he didn't win. He had the league's lowest ERA, WHIP, and hit rate while placing second in pitcher bWAR (to Kluber), innings pitched (to David Price), ERA+ (to Sale), and FIP (to Kluber). He also led in most of the advanced stats like adjusted pitching runs and wins, base-out runs and wins saved, and situational wins saved. Opponents batted just .200/.243/.303 (.244 wOBA) against him, and his average GameScore was 65. For most of the summer, he was the clear favorite as he strung together an MLB-record 16 straight starts with at least seven innings pitched and two earned runs allowed or fewer.

But he slipped just a bit over the final six weeks (2.75 ERA), opening the door for Kluber, who came on like a freight train down the stretch. His first half was hardly Cy-worthy (3.01 ERA), but after the All-Star Break he had a 1.73 ERA over his final 104 innings to lower his final ERA to 2.44. He also struck out 39 batters over his final three starts to give him a whopping 269 K's on the season, second only to Price and 21 more than Hernandez. He also finished in a three-way tie for the league lead in wins with 18 (same as Max Scherzer and Jered Weaver) while pacing the circuit in pitching bWAR (7.4), and FIP (2.35).

While Kluber had an outstanding season, I believe the hardware belongs to King Felix. For one, Kluber wasn't even Cy Young-caliber for most of the first half, while Hernandez was Cy Young worthy from start to finish. Kluber had that great finishing kick, but I think Hernandez deserves credit for being more consistent. Additionally Kluber's average GameScore (63) was a hair lower than Hernandez's, revealing that he was slightly less dominant on a per-start basis. Batters also had more success against him, hitting .233/.279/.345 (.277 wOBA) when he was on the bump--a 78 point difference between him and Hernandez. That's pretty sizable, especially considering Kluber faced slightly weaker hitting talent.

It's true that Hernandez did pitch in a more favorable environment with a better defense behind him, but the park is accounted for in Adjusted ERA+, which has him considerably ahead of Kluber 170 to 152. Furthermore, Safeco doesn't help Hernandez as much as other pitchers because of his ability to induce ground balls. As for the defense, well, it's not like Hernandez was pitching to contact. He still struck out 248 batter's, for heaven's sake! Tony Blengino over at FanGraphs took all these factors into account and calculated Hernandez's true ERA to be 2.29, a touch better than Kluber's 2.45.

All in all, I like Hernandez's case a little better than Kluber's. I'm not sure what swayed the voters over to the latter's side: I hope it was the FIP and gaudy strikeout rates but I suspect the monster second half and shinier win total played a role as well. The voters had to make a really tough choice, so I'm not surprised they got it wrong (look no further than their inability to elect Mike Trout MVP before this year). Kluber was great, but Hernandez was a tad better and deserved to win by the slimmest of margins.

Kershaw Clinches Division, MVP

Kershaw helped get the Dodgers over the hump this year (www.la.com)

The race for the National League West is over, and with it the race for NL MVP.

The second coming of Sandy Koufax was in top form in his final start of the season last night, hurling eight innings of one-run ball as the Dodgers beat up on the Giants. LA's bats picked him up after falling into an early 1-0 hole against Tim Hudson, scoring four runs in the sixth and four more in the eighth to fuel the Dodgers' 91st victory of the season.

With LA's second straight division title secure, champagne flowed in home locker room of Dodger Stadium after the win. Of all the celebratory Dodgers, none did more to help the team get there than Kershaw.

All the reigning Cy Young award winner did was turn in one of the most dominant seasons any pitcher has ever had. While he likely won't win the Triple Crown (his 239 strikeouts will probably be surpassed by Johnny Cueto and Stephen Strasburg, both at 235 with one start remaining), he's statistically head and shoulders above the crowd. Look no further than his 197 ERA+, which is based off his 1.77 raw ERA--the lowest by a pitcher since Pedro Martinez's 1.74 mark in 2000 and good enough for his record fourth straight major league ERA crown.

Just wait--there's more. His 1.80 FIP is the fourth-lowest mark of the live ball era, and his 0.86 WHIP rates seventh. His 10.8 K/9 was the best in baseball this year, and his 7.71 K/BB ratio paced the National League. Though injuries prevented him from reaching 200 innings (he'll fall five outs short), nobody has more complete games (six)--a testament to the fact that he averaged more than 7 and 1/3 innings per turn.

And as much as I hate wins, his 21 are tops in the bigs (and tie his career high). They're also the most-ever for anyone with as few starts as him (27) since 1880. In other words: a very long time. He only suffered three losses, which over the course of 27 starts is just ridiculous, and so his .875 W-L percentage is extraordinary as well.

Kershaw currently leads both leagues in bWAR, barely ahead of Mike Trout, and is first in the NL per fWAR. There's no doubt in my mind now. Clayton Kershaw is the National League MVP. 

Until recently, I wasn't ready to hand him the trophy just yet because of all the time he missed at the beginning of the season (41 days between his first start and second thought), my thought being that he absolutely had to finish strong in order to make up for that.

And boy, did Kershaw finish strong.  Including last night he won his last seven decisions, going eight innings in all but one of those starts--a 14-5 rout of the Cubs last Friday. He struck out eight or more in each start--65 in 53 innings of work against just 12 walks--and was untouchable, holding opponents to a .195/.245/.258 line over that span. During crunch time, with the Dodgers vying for a division title and guaranteed playoff spot, Kershaw was at his finest. 

That sealed it for me. Kershaw will be the first National League pitcher to win the MVP award since Bob Gibson in 1968. That was a special season, one of the all-time greats. Something tells me someday we'll look back on Kershaw's 2014 in a similar light. 

McCutchen MVP No More

With McCutchen and Tulowitzki sidelined, the NL MVP is Puig's for the taking

For most of the year it looked like Troy Tulowitzki was going to walk away with NL MVP honors on the strength of his terrific hitting and superlative defense at shortstop. Then he got hurt, as he always does, and his annual trip to the DL has cost him almost three weeks and counting. The injury, combined with his team's last place standing, knocks him off the top of the MVP pyramid. Barring a repeat of his September 2010 performance (15 homers, 40 RBI) he ain't winning.

The next best candidate appeared to be last year's MVP, Andrew McCutchen, but now it seems safe to say that he won’t be the MVP again in 2014. With a fractured rib shelving him for 3-4 weeks and possibly into September, McCutchen’s hopes of repeating were effectively dashed. So with the door wide open, who’s next in line?

Clayton Kershaw’s now the odds-on favorite, and with the kind of season he's having there's a pretty good chance he pulls a Justin Verlander by copping both the Cy Young and MVP awards. (Quick aside, if those ill-fated 2011 Red Sox roll through September the way they did the rest of that season, Jacoby Ellsbury probably wins that MVP. If Boston had won 100 games while playing in baseball’s toughest division, like they were on pace to do, there's no way the MVP goes to a pitcher whose team could have won its division with an 81-81 record. And if Verlander wins 19 games instead of 24, it's not even a discussion).

But Kershaw's missed more than month and that has to be a big strike against him. Obviously if he continues to dominate down the stretch he’ll have a great case, one worth overlooking the lost time. That said, voters have always been more inclined to favor position players rather than pitchers, who already have a hard enough time as it is winning the MVP when they’re healthy. You might recall that before Verlander, a starting pitcher hadn't been named MVP since Roger Clemens in 1986. Position players can afford to miss time and still earn the hardware (see Mickey Mantle in 1962 or Josh Hamilton in 2010), but pitchers, because they pitch so infrequently, aren't granted that same latitude. I can’t remember the last time a starting pitcher missed a good chunk of time and went on to win the MVP, which leads me to believe Kershaw will have a difficult time pulling it off. But if he goes off an another scoreless innings streak, all bets are off.

I also think that in today’s offense-challenged climate, a big bat is more valuable that a good arm. It’s elite hitting, not starting pitching, that’s in short supply, so a guy who can hit .300 with good power and gets on base is especially valuable. I think if you take away Kershaw and replace him with an average pitcher, then Zack Greinke’s the ace (of a staff with Hyun-jin Ryu, Josh Beckett, and Dan Haren) and the Dodgers are still okay.  Maybe they don't win the division, but they're still a playoff team. Remove Yasiel Puig from LA's lineup, however, and I’m not convinced they score enough runs to make their pitching stand up, not with injuries to Carl Crawford and Hanley Ramirez and poor seasons from A.J. Ellis, Andre Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez, and Matt Kemp (who's only been good recently).

So this is a long-winder, roundabout way of saying that the best remaining MVP candidate is Puig, who’s having a Mike Trout-lite season, so to speak. His .316/.400/.540 batting line is huge, especially for someone who plays half his games in Dodger Stadium (which is reflected by his 165 OPS+). With 4.0 bWAR, Puig has been his team's best position player by far, propping up a star-studded lineup that's under-performed its talent level. And while he doesn't lead the league in anything, he's in the top 10 for almost everything and should only climb higher with Tulo and 'Cutch on the mend.

Puig would boost his chances significantly by making up the distance between him and those two. Time is on his side and ripe for him to raise his stock. But he must keep hitting. He needs to rediscover the power stroke that has all but abandoned him since late May (two homers and 16 RBI in his last 56 games). He has to finish strong.

Because if he doesn't, then it's going to be that much easier to choose Kershaw.

Kershaw King of Opening Day

Kershaw was masterful in his first start of the 2014 season (NESN)

Clayton Kershaw asserted his dominance throughout yesterday's season opener in Australia. Kershaw, the reigning NL Cy Young winner and now the most expensive pitcher in baseball history, stymied the Arizona Diamondbacks with six and two-thirds innings of one-run. The lefty was in top form, surrendering just five hits--only one of which went for extra bases (a Paul Goldschmidt double)--and one walk while fanning seven. It didn't hurt that LA put three runs on the board for him relatively early, thanks to Andre Ethier's RBI groundout and Scott Van Slyke's two-run bomb (both of which scored Adrian Gonzalez).

Wade Miley, while repsectable in his own right (three runs and eight K's in five innings), was no match for baseball's top hurler. Arizona's bullpen kept Los Angeles at bay over the final four frames, but the D-Backs were unable to mount a comeback. Chris Perez, new setup man Brian Wilson and killer closer Kenley Jensen allowed no hits in relief of Kershaw, thereby suffocating any hopes for an Arizona rally.

The home team's lone run came in the bottom of the sixth, when Goldschmidt led off with a double and advanced to third on a wild pitch during Martin Prado's at-bat. Mark Trumbo, in his Diamondbacks debut, plated Goldschmidt by grounding out to second baseman Justin Turner.

But it was too little, too late for Arizona--held hitless in the final three innings. They'll look to get the bats going tonight against Hyun-jin Ryu, who's making the first start of his sophomore season. The D-Backs hope to get their first win of 2014 behind Trevor Cahill, who needs to put a rough spring training behind him.

Dodgers Break Bank for Kershaw

Last winter LA made Zack Greinke very rich, but Kershaw's even richer

The way the Los Angeles Yankees Dodgers have been throwing around money lately, it was only a matter of time before they made their ace Clayton Kershaw an offer he couldn't refuse.

Yesterday both parties agreed to a seven-year extension that will pay Kershaw $215 million, making him the highest paid pitcher in history by a comfortable margin. With an average annual value of $30.714 million, it will also make him the most expensive player at any position (exceeding CC Sabathia). Kerhshaw has one more season to go before the contract kicks in and he can opt-out after five years, which he's likely to do seeing as how he'll be 31 at that time and could easily score another giant payday (barring serious injury or decline).

Of course, if there's any pitcher on the planet worth that kind of money, it's Kershaw, who's only 25 but has already proven himself to be on par with the likes of Sandy Koufax, Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez. He's won two of the past three NL Cy Young awards and probably deserved to win in 2012 as well, when he was runner-up to R.A. Dickey. He's posted the sport's best ERA in each of the past three seasons, something only Koufax, Greg Maddux and Lefty Grove have accomplished during the live ball era.

All metrics, advanced and traditional, agree that Kershaw has been one of baseball's best pitchers over the past three years. Since the start of the 2011 season he ranks first in ERA, ERA-. FIP, WHIP, strikeouts, and opponent batting average. On top of that, he rates second in shutouts and complete games, third in wins, innings pitched, and xFIP, and fourth in K/BB ratio. Only Charlie Morton does a better job at keeping the ball in the park, and FanGraphs estimates that only Justin Verlander has been more valuable per fWAR.

So while investing lots of years and dollars in pitchers is always risky, Kershaw is about as safe as they come. He's young, dominant, and durable (not to mention left-handed), presumably with many more great years in front of him. At his age, two of his three most similar pitchers are Tom Seaver and Jim Palmer (the other is Gary Nolan, who was on the Cooperstown track before injuries ended his career before his 30th birthday). He's a Hall-of-Famer in the making, and the Dodgers were wise to lock him up for at least the rest of the decade before he could reach free agency.

Cy Youngs Follow Script

Scherzer was baseball's most winning-est pitcher in 2013 

To nobody's surprise, Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw were named Cy Young winners yesterday.

Scherzer, who had never received any Cy Young consideration in any of his previous five seasons, steamrolled to the trophy on the strength of his 21-3 record and league-best 0.97 WHIP. Removing his stellar record from the equation still leaves him with impressive credentials: 240 strikeouts, a 2.90 ERA and 6.7 pitching WAR. Though he got off to a rocky start, he emerged as the favorite over the summer as his win total mounted (he won his first 13 decisions), the strikeouts piled up (he had eight starts with at least ten) and his ERA dropped with each passing month. He started the All-Star Game and delivered a scoreless inning, striking out Joey Votto and contributing to the American League's 3-0 shutout of the Senior Circuit.

Unlike many pitchers who put together excellent first halves, only to fall off after the All-S-Star Break (Ubaldo Jimenez in 2010, R.A. Dickey to some extent last year), Scherzer did not let up. After winning his 19th game on August 24th, though, it took him four weeks and six starts for him to earn win number 20 (on September 20th, fittingly enough). Though wins and losses are a terrible way to gauge pitchers, his record was a good indication of how well the Tigers played when he was on the mound. They were 25-7 (.781) when he started. That's the definition of an ace.

(For those who care about such things, Scherzer's winning percentage has gone up every year he's been in the big leagues, from his winless 2008 up to his ML-best .875 mark in 2013. I think it's safe to say that trend won't continue next year.)

What was odd about the American League voting was how the remaining pair of first place votes were split by Anibal Sanchez and Chris Sale, both of whom finished outside the top three (fourth and fifth, respectively). Whiff-machine and preseason award favorite Yu Darvish was runner-up largely because of his gigantic strikeout total (277 in 209 and two-thirds innings pitched, which translates to 11.9 K/9). Hisashi Iwakuma was third, posting excellent numbers across the board and leading all AL hurlers in pitching WAR. Other players receiving votes were Bartolo Colon, Koji Uehara, Felix Hernandez, Greg Holland, Matt Moore, and James Shields.

Kershaw's dominance is reminiscent of Sandy Koufax's run in the mid-1960s

Kershaw handily won his second Cy in three years (and probably should have won last year, too) with all but one first place votes going his way. Kershaw was an easy choice after leading the major leagues with a sparkling 1.83 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He also led the National League in strikeouts, shutouts, and pitching WAR. It seems safe to say that he's inherited the title of Best Pitcher on the Planet from Justin Verlander, who had a down season by his lofty standards and may not be the same now that he's on the wrong side of 30. That should help him in his quest to become baseball's first $200 million pitcher as he pursues a contract extension this winter.

The one dissenting first place vote went to runner-up Adam Wainwright, who topped both leagues in starts, innings pitched, and complete games but with an ERA (2.94) more than one full run higher than Kershaw's. Wainwright, who also won an NL-best 19 games, has managed three top-three finishes in his past four seasons but has yet to capture the award. NL Rookie of the Year Jose Fernandez finished third. Matt Harvey and Craig Kimbrel tied for fourth, which means Cliff Lee's quietly outstanding season was not deemed worthy of a top five finish in the eyes of the voters. Jordan Zimmerman, Zack Greinke, Madison Bumgarner and Francisco Liriano (he's back!) rounded out the voting.