Peavy Stays with San Francisco

Peavy will return to the Giants (NESN)

Shortly after re-signing reliever Sergio Romo to a two-year deal, the San Francisco Giants did the same thing with starting pitcher Jake Peavy.

Peavy, who went 7-13 with a 3.73 ERA between the Red Sox and Giants last year, will make $24 million from the deal, which breaks down into a $4 million signing bonus, $7 million salary for 2015, and $13 million salary for 2016. The contract includes a full no-trade clause for the 33 year-old righthander, who was traded in each of the past two summers.

Peavy pitched well in his return to the National League, bouncing back from a miserable start with Boston to post a 2.17 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 3.41 K/BB ratio in his dozen regular season starts with San Francisco. After helping pitch the Giants into the postseason, though, he bombed in the playoffs. He was particularly awful in the World Series, surrendering nine earned runs to a mediocre Royals offense in six and a third innings over two starts. The Giants won their third title in five years in spite of him, not because of him. Ditto last year's Red Sox.

And while there's no way Peavy could sustain his second half of 2014 for a full season, the Giants aren't betting on a dozen great starts from someone who's going to be 34 next year. They're betting on a three-time All-Star with a proven track record of success, a guy who's topped 200 innings in two of the past three years and five times overall. For Peavy to be worth the money, he'll need to provide three or four wins above replacement over the next two years combined. That shouldn't be too difficult for someone who's been worth no less than 1.7 fWAR in each of the past 11 seasons, several of which were shortened by injury.

Then again, maybe the Giants should be worried. Peavy's FIP, xFIP, and SIERA have gone up every year since 2011, and so has his walk rate. Meanwhile, his average velocity has steadily declined, with his average fastball falling below 90 miles per hour for the first time last year. Not surprisingly, he posted the worst strikeout rate of his career in 2014, barely cracking the 7 whiffs per 9 innings mark. Steamer says he'll be worth just one fWAR next year, and that's working under the assumption he makes 29 starts, something he's done only twice in the past seven seasons. At his absolute best he'll be a league average starter going forward, which means San Francisco, in all likelihood, just forked over $24 million to a below average one in his mid-30s.

But the Giants have the most recent data on Peavy, so one has to think they know him best. He did pitch really well for them last year, even if it was in a small sample size. In that ballpark and against weaker National League competition, who's to say he won't remain effective for at least another year or two? He rounds out the rotation beyond Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, and Tim Hudson. He also provides plenty of veteran leadership, experience, grit, and a great clubhouse presence, whatever that's worth.

So is Peavy money well-spent? Probably not, but few free agents are these days.

Royals Rout Giants, Force Game 7

The Royals staved off elimination with a blowout victory (TheStar)

It was a game the Kansas City Royals absolutely had to win, and it was over by the third inning.

Faced with a win-or-go-home scenario in Game 6 of the 2014 World Series, just two days removed from managing a mere four hits against Madison Bumgarner, Kansas City broke out the bats. The Royals hung seven on the board in the second, equaling in one inning what they scored across 27 in San Francisco, and plated 10 in all. Kansas City's Game 6 run total exceeded its output in Games 1, 3, 4, and 5 combined.

The offensive outburst couldn't have come at a better time. There will be a Game 7 after all.

For that the Royals can thank Jake Peavy, who followed up his poor Game 2 start with an abysmal outing. He recorded only four outs before departing, leaving San Francisco's bullpen to mop up the remaining six and 2/3 innings. Peavy was about as bad as a pitcher can be, allowing five runs on six hits and giving the home team a commanding early lead. The poor Giants never even had a chance.

Then again, Peavy could have pitched brilliantly and still would have lost, as San Francisco scored nary a run. The Giants certainly had their chances, as 11 of them reached base, but the visitors came up empty in their six opportunities with runners in scoring position. They were thus shutout by Yordano Ventura, then Jason Frasor, and finally Tim Collins.

Speaking of Ventura, what a performance! 23 years old and fresh off his first full big league campaign, he rose to the occasion in the biggest game of his life. With five walks in seven innings he wasn't quite Bumgarner-esque, but nevertheless shut down San Francisco to eliminate whatever slim hopes there were of a comeback. Move over, James Shields; there's a new big game pitcher in town.

Of course, Ventura's effort will be in vain if Kansas City loses tonight. With a championship on the line, in the biggest baseball game the city has seen in three decades, the Royals will be counting on...Jeremy Guthrie, a thoroughly mediocre pitcher in 2014 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across 202 and 2/3 innings. Guthrie earned the win in Game 3 but has failed to complete more than five innings in either of his postseason starts. It's a good thing Kansas City's bullpen is well-rested after Ventura's outing, because Ned Yost is going need all hands on deck for this one.

The Giants will counter with Tim Hudson, a grizzled veteran of 39 years, 16 of them spent in the big leagues. Still searching for a ring in his seventh postseason, Huddy has the chance to decide his team's destiny tonight. He was the tough-luck loser in Game 3 and will be looking to erase an entire career's worth of October frustration. Does his right arm, which has logged more than 3,000 innings in the big leagues, have enough bullets to keep Kansas City's spotty lineup at bay? The Giants' third title in five years depends on it. He has so much at stake in terms of pride and reputation, combined with such a distinguished track record, that I can't envision him pitching poorly. If he loses, it's going to be close, and it's going to hurt.

Adding to the intrigue is that both Yost and Bruce Bochy can call upon their aces if necessary. With two days rest, Shields and Bumgarner would typically use today as a throw day, but given the circumstances will be available to come out of the bullpen. That has to be a terrifying thought for the Royals, who've been utterly helpless against MadBum in this series. They better jump out to an early lead against Hudson, because if they have to deal with Bumgarner late in the game they're screwed.

I've said all along that the Giants were going to win this thing, and I'm not going back on my prediction now. I say they take Game 7 by a score of 4-2.

Red Sox Pitching First Half Review 2014

It's really too bad the Red Sox haven't been able to hit a lick this year, because even if they were an average offensive team they'd probably be leading the AL East right now thanks to their stellar pitching.

This is the rarest of Red Sox teams in that their pitching's been pretty good, but their lineup has stunk to high heaven (reflected in the fact that both their All-Stars were hurlers). The staff as a whole has the fourth-best ERA in the American League--not too shabby for a team playing half its games at Fenway--and the circuit's fifth-most strikeouts. Jon Lester and John Lackey have formed a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, Jake Peavy hsn't been nearly as bad as his 1-8 record suggests, and Clay Buchholz seems to be rounding into form. For the most part the bullpen has been fantastic, none better than a certain Japanese closer pictured above.

Here's my take on some of the key Red Sox pitchers this year along with their first half grades in parentheses:

SP Jon Lester (A+)
Lester's postseason success seems to have carried over into the regular season, which is shaping up to be the best of his career (in a contract year, no less). His 2.65 ERA is a full run lower than his career 3.66 mark and his 2.61 FIP means it's no fluke. The 30 year-old has reversed four straight years of declining strikeout rates by fanning more than a batter per inning for the first time since 2010. With 134 K's he's already more than three quarters of the way to last year's total of 177. He's showed better command of the strike zone as well, slashing his walk rate to a career-low 2.0 BB/9, which in concert with his improved K rate has resulted in a 4.62 K/BB ratio (it was 2.56 from 2010 through 2013). Lester's also limited his mistakes and thus the long ball, posting the lowest home run rate of his career. Mix it all together and Lester's been one of the ten best pitchers in the American League this year, a worthy All-Star and Cy Young candidate with an ERA 35 percent better than the average pitcher after adjustments for league and park. Lester's going to get paid this offseason, but will the Red Sox be the ones footing the bill?

SP John Lackey (B+)
Lackey's strong first half proved that last year's unexpected return to form was no fluke. The 35 year-old has been terrific in his fifth season with the Sox, compiling a 3.79 ERA, 3.53 FIP and 3.89 K/BB ratio in his 123 and a-third innings. He didn't miss a start, which could explain why he faded at the end of the first half. His ERA ballooned from 2.96 on June 22nd to 3.79 by the break as he got beaten around by the Mariners, Yankees in Orioles in three successive starts. Though he earned the win, Lackey labored through his final start of the half against a weak Astros lineup, walking five and needing 117 pitches to get through six innings. Hopefully the break will help him recharge and get back on track.

SP Clay Buchholz (D-)
The ace of Boston's staff last year has been their least effective starter this year. True to form, Buchholz landed on the Disabled List in late May with a hyperextended left knee and missed a full month. At the time he had a 7.02 ERA, much like how he had an equally disgusting 7.19 ERA at the end of May in 2012. Buchholz pitched much better over the final four months of that season, trimming his ERA to 4.22 by the end of September before the Yankees shelled him in his final start of the year. A similar turnaround appears to be underway this year, with his four starts since coming off the DL producing much better results. His pre-and post-DL splits couldn't be more night and day:

Through May 26th: 7.02 ERA 1.98 WHIP .339/.403/.502 .384 BABiP 63% strikes 7% swinging strikes
Since May 26th: 2.73 ERA 0.71 WHIP .197/.215/.356  .197 BABiP 67% strikes 12% swinging strikes

Buchholz has returned to form since returning from the DL, striking out 23 against one lone walk in 29 and two-thirds innings of 2.73 ERA-ball. His most recent turn was easily his best of the season, a complete game three-hit shutout in Houston where he whiffed 12 Astros and walked none. Expect Buchholz to continue his run of success in the second half.

SP Jake Peavy (D+)
Poor Peavy. I really don't have anything else to add.

SP Felix Doubront (F)
Doubront was really struggling before going on the DL with a strained left (throwing) shoulder. Rather than continue to improve as he did last year, he appeared to be taking a major step back. In two of his ten starts he couldn't even make it out of the third inning, and in two others he failed to finish the fifth. After spending a month on the Disabled List he has been removed from the starting rotation, though his bullpen adventures have been just as difficult. His 5.06 ERA in three appearances out of the 'pen is only marginally better than his 5.19 ERA as a starter this season. What's even more frustrating is that Doubront showed for a long time last year that he could pitch well at the major league level. It's clear that he's broken, but can he be fixed? Hopefully once he adapts to his relief role he'll be able to regain his confidence.

SP Brandon Workman (D)
Workman was used primarily as a reliever last year, his first in the majors, but has since transitioned to a starter in his sophomore campaign. He made the Opening Day roster and pitched well in his three relief appearances early in the season, but was demoted to Pawtucket to gain more experience as a starting pitcher. Though he fared terribly with a 5.36 ERA in eight starts, the seasoning proved worthwhile when he was recalled in late May to replace Doubront in the rotation. The 25 year-old has been merely serviceable in that role with a 4.50 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 1.89 K/BB ratio in his eight starts this year. That's fine for a fifth starter stand-in.

SP Rubby De La Rosa (A-)
De La Rosa, who you might recall came over from the Dodgers in Boston's infamous roster purge two summers ago, pitched sparingly for the Sox last year, making 11 relief appearances and zero starts in the final two months of the season. He failed to distinguish himself in Triple-A (4.26 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) and during his cup of coffee, yielding 15 hits and seven earned runs in his 11 and a third innings of work.

This year has been a different story entirely for the 25 year-old. Though he began the season with Pawtucket, he was called up in late May when Buchholz made his annual trip to the Disabled List. His first start in a Red Sox uniform--versus the Rays at Fenway Park on May 31st--was a gem. De La Rosa twirled seven shutout innings, allowing just four hits (three of them singles) and no walks while striking out eight as Boston cruised to a 7-1 victory and sixth win in a row.

De La Rosa remained in the rotation until Buchholz returned in late June, delivering a pair of mediocre starts and a pair of great ones. He was demoted upon Buchholz's return, only to be summoned again a few weeks later with John Farrell needing a spot starter against the White Sox. De La Rosa didn't dazzle but pitched well enough (three earned runs in five innings) to keep Boston in the game, a game they eventually won. He takes a 2.89 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 4.13 K/BB ratio into the second half, albeit in the small sample size of 37 and a third innings. He's not this good, as his 3.75 FIP will tell you, but it's encouraging to see him performing so well as a starter, better than anyone could have possibly expected. Whether in the rotation or as a trade chip, De La Rosa should be provide some value going forward.

CL Koji Uehara (A+)
The Red Sox don't take leads late into games very often, but when they do they can be sure that those leads are safe in the hands of Uehara. As expected, Uehara has come back to earth a bit following his fantastic and historic 2013, but he's still been one of the best closers in the game hands-down. In addition to converting 18 of his 20 save chances, the first-time All-Star owns a 57/6 K/BB ratio, 1.65 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. He's ran into some hiccups over the past three weeks or so, with both his blown saves coming in that time as his ERA has jumped from a microscopic 0.57 on June 17th to 1.65 at the break. As much as it pains me to say it, the Red Sox must trade their 39 year-old star closer, a free agent at season's end. More on that to come.

Rest of the 'pen: Burke Badenhop, Andrew Miller and Junichi Tazawa have all been outstanding. Free agent addition Edward Mujica has been the opposite of that, as has Craig Breslow. Chris Capuano, another free agent signing, also struggled mightily and was DFA'd because of it along with Grady Sizemore and A.J. Pierzynski.

Poor Peavy

Poor Jake Peavy. He's made 19 starts for the Boston Red Sox this year, 12 of them quality, and has one win to show for it. One stinking win. That right there should tell you everything you need to know about why wins and losses are not a good way to measure pitching performance.

Take his most recent start, for example. On Saturday, July 12rh Peavy goes into the eighth inning against the Houston Astros, a horrendous team that should be mince meat for the defending World Series champions. Peavy has one of his best starts of the season, surrendering three earned runs on six hits and a walk while striking out nine. Peavy pitches well enough to win, except that he doesn't. He doesn't even get away with a no-decision because the Red Sox only manage to scrape together two runs against a pitching staff with the league's second-worst ERA. They fall 3-2, sticking Peavy with the hard-luck loss.

That game was Peavy's first half in a nutshell. He's pitched well enough to be a .500 pitcher at least, and if this were last year he'd have a winning record. That says more about how inept the Red Sox offense has been this year than it does how well the three-time All-Star has pitched. Peavy's been far from good in his second season with the Sox, but he hasn't been nearly as bad as his 1-8 record would suggest. Both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs have him at above replacement level, even if they agree that his 4.59 ERA, when adjusted for league and park, is 12 or 13 percent worse than average. With an average GameScore of 50, a number he's reached or exceeded 13 times this season, Peavy's been the very definition of average.

His record doesn't reflect that, however. Since earning his first win of the season in Toronto on April 25th, he's suffered eight straight losses despite making eight quality starts.  The victim of bad luck and poor run support, he takes an ugly 1-8 record into the All-Star Break. For that he can blame Boston's batsmen, who haven't mustered much offense this year but have been lifeless when he's taken the mound. They've scored four runs or less in 15 of his 19 starts, averaging 2.83 runs per start and making Peavy the least-supported qualified starting pitcher in the American League.

When your lineup goes dormant like that it doesn't make an ounce of difference who's pitching. You have to be near-perfect. Nobody could win regularly with such a slim margin of error (well, except maybe Clayton Kershaw). No wonder the Sox have dropped Peavy's eight most recent starts and 11 of his last 12.

Peavy deserves much better. He's allowed three earned runs or fewer in 12 of his 19 starts. Last year, backed by a potent Boston offense averaging 5.27 runs per game, he would have won the majority of those starts. But this year's outfit, trotting out a lineup with more holes than Swiss cheese, has come away with victories in just four of them and none since May 29th.

Plain bad luck has to account for Peavy's pitiful record as well. It seems like ages ago, but the former Cy Young got off to a great start with a 3.09 ERA through Mother's Day. Boston won four of those first seven starts, six of them quality, but he was rewarded with one win, one loss and five no-decisions. In June alone, when Peavy was tagged with five losses in his six starts, Boston plated a grand total of nine runs, as in one fewer than ten. They were shutout twice, scored twice three times, and totaled three on June 3rd in Cleveland.

Peavy also has to be peeved that lesser starters have fared better. Rotation-mates Clay Buchholz and Felix Doubront, both with ERAs over five, have seven wins between them in six more starts. The Rangers' Colby Lewis has six wins in spite of his 6.37 ERA. Minnesota's Ricky Nolasco has a 5.90 ERA, but is 5-7. Colorado's Juan Nicasio's even worse at 5.92, but somehow he's 5-5. The list goes on. Peavy's pitched much, much better than all of them, but you wouldn't know it by looking at their records.

Peavy's hasn't always pitched well, but more often than not he's pitched well enough to win. Unfortunately Boston's lineup has let him down. The Red Sox have talked about trading Peavy before the July 31st deadlline, and for his sake I hope they do. In the meantime, his pursuit of that elusive second win of the year continues.

Red Sox Reach .500

Uehara (right) sealed the win with a perfect ninth inning

For the first time in over a month, the Red Sox don't have a losing record. They evened their record at .500 (17-17) with last night's come-from-behind 4-3 win over the Cincinnati Reds.

The visiting Reds jumped out to an early lead, scoring two in the top of the third on a rare home run into the bullpen from Skip Schumaker, his 26th career blast and first of the season. Mike Leake held Boston scoreless until the sixth, when the Sox struck back to knot the score at two. David Ortiz singled home Jonathan Herrera and Mike Napoli followed with an opposite field double into the corner, plating Shane Victorino and sending Papi to third. Despite having two runners in scoring position with one out, Boston was unable to take the lead.

Cincinnati re-took the lead in the seventh, driving Jake Peavy from the game by loading the bases with nobody out. Chris Capuano induced a run-scoring groundout from Roger Bernadina before giving way to Burke Badenhop, who neutralized the still-bases loaded threat and escape the inning without further damage.

That proved crucial when the Red Sox rallied in the bottom of the eighth. With Leake finally out of the game, Boston got to Cincy's bullpen. Following an Ortiz strikeout, Napoli and Jonny Gomes worked one-out walks, then A.J. Pierzynski drove home Napoli with a game-tying ground-rule double. After J.J. Hoover intentionally walked Jackie Bradley, Jr. to load the bases and set up a potential force out at the plate/inning-ending double play, the slumping Will Middlebrooks ripped a single up the middle, past a diving Zack Cozart to score Gomes and give Boston the lead.

With the bases loaded and only one out, the Red Sox were poised to grab some insurance runs, but once again failed to get a big hit with men on base. Sean Marshall came on in relief and fanned pinch-hitter Mike Carp and Dustin Pedroia (Pedey's fourth whiff of the game) to end the frame.

No matter, for Koji Uehara came in and nailed down the save--his eighth of the season--by retiring Todd Frazier, Bryan Pena and Ryan Ludwick in order, all with K's. Koji now his 22 strikeouts (against just three walks) in 14.2 innings.

After taking both games of their short two-game interleague series with the Reds, Boston gets the day off today to travel to Texas. The Sox send a struggling Clay Buchholz to the mound as try to get over .500 for the first time since April 3rd, but to do so they'll have to get the best of Yu Darvish.

Peavy Perfect Fit

The Red Sox made a trading deadline splash by acquiring Peavy

Boston Red Sox GM Ben Cherington bolstered his starting rotation today via a three-way trade that brings Jake Peavy to Beantown and sends Jose Iglesias to Motown.

This is a great move for the Sox, who don't expect Clay Buchholz to return until September and needed another arm for their playoff push. Peavy, an All-Star last year, is 8-4 with a 4.28 ERA over 13 starts so far in 2013. He solidifies a formidable rotation that already features Jon Lester, John Lackey, Ryan Dempster, and Felix Doubront, pushing rookie Brandon Workman into the bullpen.

Age and injuries have taken their toll on the 32 year-old's arm and velocity in recent years. While he's no longer the Cy Young-caliber starter he was half a decade ago, he's still an above average hurler who can make a difference down the stretch. Peavy's posted stellar peripherals to date, including a 4.47 K/BB ratio (the best mark of his career), and 1.14 WHIP. His 8.6 K/9 rate is the highest it's been since 2009, and his 3.68 xFIP is right in line with his career mark of 3.65. With better luck, his ERA could easily be half a run lower.

Credit Cherington for netting a strong return in Peavy without having to surrender much in the way of prospects: three so-so guys, none of whom are named Xander Bogaerts or Jackie Bradley Jr. The club won't miss Iglesias, either, even though he's one of the best defenders around and was hitting .330 at the time of the trade. The simple truth is that Iglesias, who has no power whatsoever and is slumping badly (.216/.250/.225 since June 26th), isn't a capable major league hitter and probably never will be. If he was, John Farrell wouldn't be batting him ninth. With Bogaerts and possibly Will Middlebrooks waiting in the wings, Iglesias was expendable with trade value that might never be higher. Cherington was smart to deal him while his numbers were still inflated by his .376 (and falling) BABiP.

There are two more things I like about this deal. The first is that Peavy, who is under contract for next year, isn't merely a two month rental. Barring injury, he'll play a prominent role with the Sox in 2014. The second is that the departure of Iglesias creates a vacancy at third base. Normally that would be a bad thing, but in this case it opens the door for Bogaerts to join the big club in the near future. The 20 year-old phenom has been hitting well with Pawtucket (.854 OPS) and deserves a crack at the Show.

No offense to Brock Holt, but hopefully Cherington doesn't make Bogaerts wait much longer.