Lackey, Lester Reunited

Lackey has showed no signs of slowing down as he enters his late-30s (Fox Sports)

On July 31st, 2014, Ben Cherington broke up the 2013 World Series champions by trading Jon Lester and John Lackey, among others, to the Oakland A's and St. Louis Cardinals, respectively. Sixteen months later, they have been reunited under former Sox GM Theo Epstein, the man who developed Lester and signed Lackey in Boston, with the Chicago Cubs.

Lester joined the Cubs last winter, signing for more money than any free agent besides Max Scherzer. Lackey stayed in St. Louis, earning the league minimum because of an injury clause in his contract. Both were terrific in their first full seasons as National Leaguers, pitching their respective clubs to the postseason and squaring off in Game 1 of the NLDS. Lackey got the best of Lester, allowing just two hits over 7 and 1/3 scoreless innings, but in the end it was Chicago who advanced to the NLCS (only to be mercilessly swept by the Mets).

Now, the onetime beer buddies and former division rivals are teammates once more. It was reported yesterday that Lackey and the Cubs had agreed to a two-year, $32 million deal. Lackey joins Lester and Jake Arrieta in the Windy City, giving Chicago a formidable trio at the top of its rotation. The Cubs have plenty of hitting, so they were wise to add a starter, snapping him at up at a reasonable price to boot.

While nowhere near the bargain the Cardinals got with Lackey last year, this still figures to be a pretty favorable contract for Chicago. They get a great starting pitcher at a fraction of the cost that David Price, Zack Greinke, and Jordan Zimmermann just inflicted on their new clubs. Even if Lackey's only half the pitcher he was last year, when he was worth roughly 4.7 WAR (after splitting the difference between B-R and FanGraphs) with a 2.77 ERA over 218 innings, he'll still be worth the money. And since it's only a two-year pact, the Cubs won't be stuck with him if he bombs.

Which, at his age, is a very real possibility. Lackey just turned 37 and has churned out over 2,600 innings (postseason included) on a Tommy John-repaired arm. Pitchers at his age are susceptible to losing it overnight, as we recently saw with Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and others. It's hard to say how he'll fare in Wrigley Field seeing as how he's started all of two games there, but there's no question his new home is tougher on hitters than his old one (I'm not too concerned about this, however, as Lackey's not a flyball pitcher--the kind who are susceptible to Wrigley's wind--and he had success at Fenway)

Lackey's due for some regression after outpitching his FIP by 0.8 R/9 and enjoying baseball's second-highest strand rate, but even if he's only average pitcher he'll still have plenty of value if healthy. That's a pretty big risk at this stage in his career, but it's absolutely a risk worth taking.

Boston's Former Cardinals Crash and Burn

Joe Kelly will try to figure it out in the minors (Yahoo Sports)

With Joe Kelly's demotion to Triple-A Pawtucket today, the Red Sox have officially lost last summer's trade with the St. Louis Cardinals--the one that sent John Lackey packing to St. Louis in return for Joe Kelly and Allen Craig, neither of whom are currently on the big league roster..

In fact, I think it might be the worst trade Ben Cherington has ever made. Kelly and Craig have both been massive busts in Boston, while Lackey has continued to be an effective starter for the Cards. Kelly has not developed into a viable starting pitcher, much less the Cy Young winner he predicted he'd be. With a 5.67 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, he's been one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball this year. At this point, his best bet is to take his heater to the bullpen, where he may enjoy a renaissance a la Andrew Miller.

As for Craig, he has yet to rediscover the stroke that made him a .300 hitter and one of the league's best RBI men. Not even Fenway Park could help restore the former All-Star's bat, as he's hit a meager .130/.235/.192 since joining the Red Sox. His age, injury history, non-existent production, and costly price tag (he'll earn $11 million next year) makes him all but untradeable.

Meanwhile, Lackey has continued to thrive in St. Louis. He faded down the stretch last year but has bounced back strong this year, posting a 3.41 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 3.14 K/BB ratio. He's been one of the most reliable starters for the first-place Cardinals, leading the staff in innings pitched and helping pick up the slack in Adam Wainwright's absence. Even at 36, he shows no signs of slowing down.

At the time, trading a veteran starter in his mid-30s for a hard-throwing hurler in his mid-20s made plenty of sense, but taking on Craig's costly contract and expecting him to bounce back proved to be too much of a gamble. Boston really could have used Lackey in its rotation this year, and had absolutely no need for Craig given its already-crowded outfield situation when he arrived. Now it looks like the Sox are stuck with him, unless they can convince somebody that regular playing time will rejuvenate the soon-to-be 31 year-old's bat.

I still think Kelly has a future as a shut-down reliever, but that's not as valuable as a reliable starting pitcher, especially given the struggles of Boston's rotation this year. This trade is just one of many reasons why the Red Sox have underperformed this year, but it's now clear that they'd be better off had Cherington never done this deal.

Red Sox Pitching First Half Review 2014

It's really too bad the Red Sox haven't been able to hit a lick this year, because even if they were an average offensive team they'd probably be leading the AL East right now thanks to their stellar pitching.

This is the rarest of Red Sox teams in that their pitching's been pretty good, but their lineup has stunk to high heaven (reflected in the fact that both their All-Stars were hurlers). The staff as a whole has the fourth-best ERA in the American League--not too shabby for a team playing half its games at Fenway--and the circuit's fifth-most strikeouts. Jon Lester and John Lackey have formed a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, Jake Peavy hsn't been nearly as bad as his 1-8 record suggests, and Clay Buchholz seems to be rounding into form. For the most part the bullpen has been fantastic, none better than a certain Japanese closer pictured above.

Here's my take on some of the key Red Sox pitchers this year along with their first half grades in parentheses:

SP Jon Lester (A+)
Lester's postseason success seems to have carried over into the regular season, which is shaping up to be the best of his career (in a contract year, no less). His 2.65 ERA is a full run lower than his career 3.66 mark and his 2.61 FIP means it's no fluke. The 30 year-old has reversed four straight years of declining strikeout rates by fanning more than a batter per inning for the first time since 2010. With 134 K's he's already more than three quarters of the way to last year's total of 177. He's showed better command of the strike zone as well, slashing his walk rate to a career-low 2.0 BB/9, which in concert with his improved K rate has resulted in a 4.62 K/BB ratio (it was 2.56 from 2010 through 2013). Lester's also limited his mistakes and thus the long ball, posting the lowest home run rate of his career. Mix it all together and Lester's been one of the ten best pitchers in the American League this year, a worthy All-Star and Cy Young candidate with an ERA 35 percent better than the average pitcher after adjustments for league and park. Lester's going to get paid this offseason, but will the Red Sox be the ones footing the bill?

SP John Lackey (B+)
Lackey's strong first half proved that last year's unexpected return to form was no fluke. The 35 year-old has been terrific in his fifth season with the Sox, compiling a 3.79 ERA, 3.53 FIP and 3.89 K/BB ratio in his 123 and a-third innings. He didn't miss a start, which could explain why he faded at the end of the first half. His ERA ballooned from 2.96 on June 22nd to 3.79 by the break as he got beaten around by the Mariners, Yankees in Orioles in three successive starts. Though he earned the win, Lackey labored through his final start of the half against a weak Astros lineup, walking five and needing 117 pitches to get through six innings. Hopefully the break will help him recharge and get back on track.

SP Clay Buchholz (D-)
The ace of Boston's staff last year has been their least effective starter this year. True to form, Buchholz landed on the Disabled List in late May with a hyperextended left knee and missed a full month. At the time he had a 7.02 ERA, much like how he had an equally disgusting 7.19 ERA at the end of May in 2012. Buchholz pitched much better over the final four months of that season, trimming his ERA to 4.22 by the end of September before the Yankees shelled him in his final start of the year. A similar turnaround appears to be underway this year, with his four starts since coming off the DL producing much better results. His pre-and post-DL splits couldn't be more night and day:

Through May 26th: 7.02 ERA 1.98 WHIP .339/.403/.502 .384 BABiP 63% strikes 7% swinging strikes
Since May 26th: 2.73 ERA 0.71 WHIP .197/.215/.356  .197 BABiP 67% strikes 12% swinging strikes

Buchholz has returned to form since returning from the DL, striking out 23 against one lone walk in 29 and two-thirds innings of 2.73 ERA-ball. His most recent turn was easily his best of the season, a complete game three-hit shutout in Houston where he whiffed 12 Astros and walked none. Expect Buchholz to continue his run of success in the second half.

SP Jake Peavy (D+)
Poor Peavy. I really don't have anything else to add.

SP Felix Doubront (F)
Doubront was really struggling before going on the DL with a strained left (throwing) shoulder. Rather than continue to improve as he did last year, he appeared to be taking a major step back. In two of his ten starts he couldn't even make it out of the third inning, and in two others he failed to finish the fifth. After spending a month on the Disabled List he has been removed from the starting rotation, though his bullpen adventures have been just as difficult. His 5.06 ERA in three appearances out of the 'pen is only marginally better than his 5.19 ERA as a starter this season. What's even more frustrating is that Doubront showed for a long time last year that he could pitch well at the major league level. It's clear that he's broken, but can he be fixed? Hopefully once he adapts to his relief role he'll be able to regain his confidence.

SP Brandon Workman (D)
Workman was used primarily as a reliever last year, his first in the majors, but has since transitioned to a starter in his sophomore campaign. He made the Opening Day roster and pitched well in his three relief appearances early in the season, but was demoted to Pawtucket to gain more experience as a starting pitcher. Though he fared terribly with a 5.36 ERA in eight starts, the seasoning proved worthwhile when he was recalled in late May to replace Doubront in the rotation. The 25 year-old has been merely serviceable in that role with a 4.50 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 1.89 K/BB ratio in his eight starts this year. That's fine for a fifth starter stand-in.

SP Rubby De La Rosa (A-)
De La Rosa, who you might recall came over from the Dodgers in Boston's infamous roster purge two summers ago, pitched sparingly for the Sox last year, making 11 relief appearances and zero starts in the final two months of the season. He failed to distinguish himself in Triple-A (4.26 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) and during his cup of coffee, yielding 15 hits and seven earned runs in his 11 and a third innings of work.

This year has been a different story entirely for the 25 year-old. Though he began the season with Pawtucket, he was called up in late May when Buchholz made his annual trip to the Disabled List. His first start in a Red Sox uniform--versus the Rays at Fenway Park on May 31st--was a gem. De La Rosa twirled seven shutout innings, allowing just four hits (three of them singles) and no walks while striking out eight as Boston cruised to a 7-1 victory and sixth win in a row.

De La Rosa remained in the rotation until Buchholz returned in late June, delivering a pair of mediocre starts and a pair of great ones. He was demoted upon Buchholz's return, only to be summoned again a few weeks later with John Farrell needing a spot starter against the White Sox. De La Rosa didn't dazzle but pitched well enough (three earned runs in five innings) to keep Boston in the game, a game they eventually won. He takes a 2.89 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 4.13 K/BB ratio into the second half, albeit in the small sample size of 37 and a third innings. He's not this good, as his 3.75 FIP will tell you, but it's encouraging to see him performing so well as a starter, better than anyone could have possibly expected. Whether in the rotation or as a trade chip, De La Rosa should be provide some value going forward.

CL Koji Uehara (A+)
The Red Sox don't take leads late into games very often, but when they do they can be sure that those leads are safe in the hands of Uehara. As expected, Uehara has come back to earth a bit following his fantastic and historic 2013, but he's still been one of the best closers in the game hands-down. In addition to converting 18 of his 20 save chances, the first-time All-Star owns a 57/6 K/BB ratio, 1.65 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. He's ran into some hiccups over the past three weeks or so, with both his blown saves coming in that time as his ERA has jumped from a microscopic 0.57 on June 17th to 1.65 at the break. As much as it pains me to say it, the Red Sox must trade their 39 year-old star closer, a free agent at season's end. More on that to come.

Rest of the 'pen: Burke Badenhop, Andrew Miller and Junichi Tazawa have all been outstanding. Free agent addition Edward Mujica has been the opposite of that, as has Craig Breslow. Chris Capuano, another free agent signing, also struggled mightily and was DFA'd because of it along with Grady Sizemore and A.J. Pierzynski.

Boston Takes Texas Series

Lackey was in control and guided Boston to another victory

Slowly but surely, the Red Sox are gaining steam.

With their 5-2 win over the Texas Rangers today, the Sox won their third straight series and lifted their record over .500 for the first time since April 3rd, when they were 2-1 after winning their season-opening series in Baltimore. At 19-18, Boston has now won six of its last eight and 14 of the last 23, coming alive after a slow start that caused the defending World Series champs to slip to last place in the AL East.

It looked like the visiting Red Sox were in for a long weekend after nearly getting no-hit by Yu Darvish in the series-opener, but they rallied to win 8-3 last night and take the rubber game today. Boston's bats staked John Lackey to an early 4-0 lead by scoring in the first two innings for the first time this season. The Sox scored three times to open the game in the top of the first. Mike Napoli doubled in Dustin Pedroia, and after a Jonny Gomes pop-out A.J. Pierzynski laced a single that plated Napoli and David Ortiz. Boston got another in the second from Shane Victorino's RBI groundout.

Rangers starter Robbie Ross, Jr. settled down after that, pitching into the seventh inning before Pedroia ended his day with a solo shot that barely made it over the left field wall. But Ross was not sharp enough to beat Lackey, who delivered another fine outing that lowered his ERA to 3.57 and improved his record to 5-2. The native Texan hurled seven innings of two-run ball, scattering seven hits and striking out nine while walking none. Shin-Soo Choo took him deep to lead off the bottom of the fourth and added another run in the seventh when Mitch Moreland doubled home Alex Rios.

Lackey nearly lost control of the game when, following Moreland's one-out double, J.P. Arencibia reached on an infield single that ate up Xander Bogaerts. Lackey screamed and stomped his feet the way he always does when a fielder fails to make a play behind him, leading John Farrell to send out Juan Nieves to calm him down. The move seemed to work, for Lackey fanned Leonys Martin and Rougned Odor--both of whom represented the potential tying run--to end the frame and finish his start on a high note.

The Red Sox bullpen took it from there. Andrew Miller worked around hitting Elvis Andrus with a pitch to deliver a scoreless eighth, and Koji Uehara closed the door with a 1-2-3 ninth, converting his 32nd consecutive save opportunity since last July 6th.

The surging Sox get an off-day tomorrow to travel to Minnesota, where they'll wrap up their six-game road trip. Look for them to continue their winning ways against the last-place Twins, who have the American League's second-worst pitching staff (ERA-wise) and a soft lineup.

Napoli, Ortiz Support Lackey in First Sox Win

Napoli paced the Red Sox attack with a home run and four RBI

The Boston Red Sox won their first game of the season today, beating the Baltimore Orioles 6-2 behind a strong start from John Lackey and a four-RBI night by Mike Napoli.

Lackey looked terrific in his first start of the season, giving Boston six strong innings before turning a 6-2 lead over to the bullpen. Lackey threw 68 of his 90 pitches for strikes and allowed just three hits and one walk while striking out six. He made one mistake to Nelson Cruz, who launched a game-tying two-run bomb in the fourth (this after beating the Sox with his go-ahead home run on Opening Day), but otherwise kept Baltimore's bats in check. The bullpen trio of Edward Mujica, Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara delivered scoreless innings to seal the win.

The Red Sox lineup broke out after scoring just once on Opening Day. Tonight they scored six runs on ten hits, putting two on the board in the third, fifth, and seventh innings. David Ortiz (fresh off a new contract extension) kicked off the scoring by ripping a two run shot over the right field fence to bring home Dustin Pedroia, who had four hits on the day. The long ball was the 432nd of Ortiz's career, breaking a tie with Orioles legend Cal Ripken Jr. for 45th place on the all-time home run list, as well as his first career hit off Orioles' starter Ubaldo Jimenez (making his Orioles debut after signing a four-year, $50 million deal).

Jimenez surrendered another two-run job in the fifth--to Mike Napoli--and like Lackey was gone after six (but, unlike Lackey, was not particularly sharp). Napoli knocked in two more with a base loaded single off reliever Ryan Webb in the seventh to plate Pedroia and Daniel Nava, doubling Boston's lead with some much-needed insurance runs. The Orioles made things mildly interesting in the bottom of the ninth, getting runners to second and third with two outs before Uehara slammed the door in a non-save situation.

The Bosox will try to take the rubber game tomorrow with Felix Doubront (11-6, 4.32 ERA last year) on the bump. Baltimore will counter with Wei-Yin Chen (7- 7, 4.07).

One More Win

Jon Lester pumps his fist in Game 5, which Boston went on to win 3-1 (NESN)

With one more win, the Boston Red Sox will win the 2013 World Series. With one more win, they'll do what no Red Sox team has done since 1918, and that is win the clinching game of the Fall Classic on Fenway Park's hallowed ground. With one more win, they'll be champions.

The Sox have two chances to get that last win, both at home, where they are 57-30 (.655) this year (postseason included). Tomorrow night the Red Sox will turn to John Lackey, who was brilliant in his Game 2 start and pitched a scoreless inning of relief in Game 4. How fitting would it be for Lackey, who twirled a complete game versus the Orioles on September 19th that secured Boston's postseason berth, to help his team win the World Series in his final start of the year? It would be the storybook ending to his improbable redemption.

St. Louis will pin its hopes on Michael Wacha, who has won all four of his starts this October including his Game 2 start at Fenway. The 22 year-old will have to be at his best, and that should prove more difficult now that the Red Sox have experience against him. If he gets into trouble early, Mike Matheny can't afford to be slow pulling him from the game. Matheny must show that he's learned his lesson from leaving Joe Kelly in too long in Game 3 and Adam Wainwright in too long in Game 5.

Should the Cardinals win and force a Game 7, John Farrell will have to decide between Jake Peavy and Felix Doubront, neither of whom are particularly appealing options. But let Farrell cross that bridge if/when he gets there. For now, let's see if Lackey can do what he did as a 24 year-old rookie with Anaheim in 2002; win the deciding game of a World Series.