Dombrowski to the Rescue

Dombrowski (second from right) has his work cut out for him (Reformer)

Just when another listless Red Sox season seemed to be quietly winding down, Boston made major waves off the field by shaking up its front office.

That should come as no surprise, however, because whenever the Red Sox do poorly, heads are bound to roll. In the wake of Boston's 2011 crash, Terry Francona was let go and Theo Epstein jumped ship, even though it was clearly the players who were the issue. When the team finished last the following year, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Gonzalez were traded and Bobby Valentine was shown the door. In 2013 Boston won the World Series, so everyone got to keep their jobs, but a last place finish in 2014 resulted in much of the title-winning roster getting booted, including four-fifths of the starting rotation and several key role players.

This year brought more of the same. Pitching coach Juan Nieves got canned in May, barely a month into the season. Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino--two of the few remaining World Series champions--were traded. Team president and CEO Larry Lucchino announced he was stepping down at season's end.

But as the Red Sox spent another summer in the AL East basement, one got the sense that neither Ben Cherington, the team's architect, nor John Farrell, the team's skipper, would not return next year. No one could have imagined that they'd both be gone so soon, under such extraordinary circumstances, within a few days of each other.

Farrell, of course, was forced out by lymphoma, which he began chemotherapy for Tuesday. He will not return this season, though he expects to be ready for spring training if his treatment goes well. His job is safe for the time being (firing a cancer patient is one way to alienate your fans), though with two years remaining on his contract he was probably never in serious danger of being fired anyways, especially since he's never caused ownership any headaches (unlike his predecessor, who somehow survived an entire season before getting axed).

And besides, it wasn't Farrell's fault he got stuck with a position-less Hanley Ramirez, an overweight third baseman who swings at balls that hit him, and a truly awful starting rotation. A manager can only work with what he's given, and what he got has amounted to a steaming pile of garbage.

The man who handed him that trash bag was Cherington, who is leaving his post as Boston's general manager after three and a half seasons. With Dave Dombrowski, former GM of the Detroit Tigers, taking over as Boston's president of baseball operations, Cherington is following Lucchino out the door as well.

Gone with him is Boston's slavish devotion to analytics, which many point to as the root of the team's recent failures. The front office's severe misjudgment was most obvious during this past offseason, which has turned out to be a disaster. Analytics may have said a starting rotation of Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Justin Masterson, and Joe Kelly would be fine, but any sensible person could see it was doomed from the start. Cherington trusted the same analytics that believed Ramirez could play left field, that said Pablo Sandoval was worth almost $100 million, and that valued Rusney Castillo at another $72.5 million.

Look, analytics are a great tool, and it's better to have them than not, but they can't be used blindly. Just as WAR shouldn't be the end-all, be-all stat for any baseball discussion, analytics shouldn't be the only method teams use for evaluating players. They're a good place to start, but you need to supplement with scouting.

Enter Dombrowski, one of the few remaining "old-school" baseball people. He may seem like a dinosaur to some, but his results on the field speak for themselves. While Dombrowski never won a World Series with the Tigers, he transformed them from one of the worst teams in baseball to a perennial powerhouse. He'll seek to do the same in Boston, aided by baseball's best farm system and a gargantuan payroll.

With Cherington gone, his first order of business is to find a new general manager. The frontrunner appears to be Frank Wren, former general manager of the Atlanta Braves. Like Dombrowski, Wren's a more traditional baseball mind who enjoyed great success with his last team. With him and Dombrowski at the helm Boston would seem to be in good hands.

Like his predecessor, Cherington left behind a huge mess to clean up. Hopefully Dombrowski and his new general manager can get things back in order as quickly as he did.

Boston's Former Cardinals Crash and Burn

Joe Kelly will try to figure it out in the minors (Yahoo Sports)

With Joe Kelly's demotion to Triple-A Pawtucket today, the Red Sox have officially lost last summer's trade with the St. Louis Cardinals--the one that sent John Lackey packing to St. Louis in return for Joe Kelly and Allen Craig, neither of whom are currently on the big league roster..

In fact, I think it might be the worst trade Ben Cherington has ever made. Kelly and Craig have both been massive busts in Boston, while Lackey has continued to be an effective starter for the Cards. Kelly has not developed into a viable starting pitcher, much less the Cy Young winner he predicted he'd be. With a 5.67 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, he's been one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball this year. At this point, his best bet is to take his heater to the bullpen, where he may enjoy a renaissance a la Andrew Miller.

As for Craig, he has yet to rediscover the stroke that made him a .300 hitter and one of the league's best RBI men. Not even Fenway Park could help restore the former All-Star's bat, as he's hit a meager .130/.235/.192 since joining the Red Sox. His age, injury history, non-existent production, and costly price tag (he'll earn $11 million next year) makes him all but untradeable.

Meanwhile, Lackey has continued to thrive in St. Louis. He faded down the stretch last year but has bounced back strong this year, posting a 3.41 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 3.14 K/BB ratio. He's been one of the most reliable starters for the first-place Cardinals, leading the staff in innings pitched and helping pick up the slack in Adam Wainwright's absence. Even at 36, he shows no signs of slowing down.

At the time, trading a veteran starter in his mid-30s for a hard-throwing hurler in his mid-20s made plenty of sense, but taking on Craig's costly contract and expecting him to bounce back proved to be too much of a gamble. Boston really could have used Lackey in its rotation this year, and had absolutely no need for Craig given its already-crowded outfield situation when he arrived. Now it looks like the Sox are stuck with him, unless they can convince somebody that regular playing time will rejuvenate the soon-to-be 31 year-old's bat.

I still think Kelly has a future as a shut-down reliever, but that's not as valuable as a reliable starting pitcher, especially given the struggles of Boston's rotation this year. This trade is just one of many reasons why the Red Sox have underperformed this year, but it's now clear that they'd be better off had Cherington never done this deal.

Boston Blows it Up

Lester and many of his former Boston teammates are gone. Why? (NYPost)

For the second time in three years, the Boston Red Sox are a last place team going nowhere. And so for the second time in three years, the Boston Red Sox will finish a season with a team that's drastically different from the one that started it.

With the dust having settled on another dizzying day of deadline deals, (David Price to the Tigers!) it's time to take stock of the radically-altered Red Sox roster. The Beaneaters are a much different team tonight than they were a week--heck, even 12 hours--ago. A.J. Pierzynski, Grady Sizemore and Chris Capuano were the first to go, all by way of DFA. Then Jake Peavy, poor Jake Peavy, was traded. A fed-up Felix Doubront followed him out the door shortly thereafter.

Then today it was Jon Lester, Jonny Gomes, John Lackey, Stephen Drew and Andrew Miller, all gone in a flurry of deadline swaps. With them went any hope of Boston pulling it together and making a push in the season's final two months. Not like that was going to happen, anyways.

So starting tomorrow (the Sox were off today), Red Sox fans will have to start getting used to a bunch of new faces. Because nearly nine months to the day after celebrating a World Series championship at Fenway Park, 11 of the 25 guys who won it are gone (counting Jacoby Ellsbury, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Ryan Dempster, all of whom departed over the winter). As quickly as the championship team came together during the winter of 2013, it only took a few weeks for Ben Cherington to dismantle that same team piece by piece, trading away key pieces in the infield, outfield, and bullpen, not to mention 60 percent of the starting rotation.

It's sad, if only because it didn't have to happen this way. The Red Sox were the best team in baseball last year, and they could have been great again this year if only they'd been more aggressive in the offseason. In retrospect, this roster clearly needed more than the few tweaks Cherington made over the winter. It was too dependent on youngsters breaking out and aging veterans replicating their overachievements from the year before. It desperately needed more power, particularly in the outfield (hello, Nelson Cruz), and a catcher who wasn't 37 years old. And pitching--you can never have enough of that.

Red Sox leadership got smug. They didn't see the need to drastically overhaul a roster that had just won baseball's biggest prize, a team that few expected to make the playoffs before the season began, much less win it all. And so they mostly stood pat. While other teams in their division dramatically improved, the Red Sox let themselves get weaker. They got complacent.

And now nearly half the team is gone. Boston's bottomed out and Cherington, as he did last time the Sox were awful, purged many of his best players. But whereas his 2012 firesale was primarily for salary relief--a rare opportunity to unload dead payroll and start fresh--this round actually cost the Red Sox money.

No, this wasn't about giving a rookie GM the chance to build his team the way he wanted; it was about retooling and trying to reload for a more competitive season in 2015. That's why Boston traded for established major league players rather than  prospects. They weren't good enough to win now, but they also can't afford to rebuild and wait three or four years to contend again. The pressure in Boston, perhaps America's most crazed baseball city, is simply too great to allow for that kind of time.

Cherington, as he did two years ago, had to rebuild on the fly. He did a great job then obviously--the World Series ring speaks for itself--and I have to think he did a great job now. . Big Ben got two decent pitching prospects from San Fran for Peavy, which is more than anyone thought he'd get for a 33 year-old with a 1-9 record and 4.72 ERA. Then he somehow managed to convince his old bosses in Chicago that Doubront (2-4, 6.07 ERA) was worth taking off his hands.

But he was just getting warmed up. This morning he dealt Lester, a free agent at season's end, along with Gomes to Oakland for Yoenis Cespedes, a righthanded power hitter who should thrive at Fenway, and a compensation pick. Then he sent his next-best starting pitcher, Lackey, with Corey Littrell and cash to St. Louis for Joe Kelly and Allen Craig, the former a third-year starting pitcher nearly ten years Lackey's junior and the latter a .312/.364/.500 hitter over the previous three seasons. Miller was swapped to Baltimore for Eduardo Rodriguez, just 21 and a top-100 prospect before the season began.

But the coup of all coups was that he was able to find a suitor for Stephen Drew, a 31 year-old shortstop batting below .200 and making more than $10 million this year. Not surprisingly, that team was the Yankees, who have always been fond of overpriced veteran players on their way down. Drew should have been next to untradeable, and yet Cherington was able to move him for Kelly Johnson, who's one year older than Drew but can play multiple positions and has been a better hitter this year. I'm not saying Johnson's better than Drew, but he definitely can't be any worse.

Last year's fluky title aside, the 2014 Red Sox are a terrible team (third-worst in the American League entering play today). Kudos to Cherington for recognizing that and doing some wheeling and dealing at the deadline to start improving their odds for next year. Rather than settle for a bevy of prospects that might never pan out, he was able to get back a good amount of established major league talent in return. Their lineup is instantly better with Cespedes representing a big upgrade over Gomes in left and addition by subtraction in Drew's departure, which opens up a move back to short for Xander Bogaerts and regular playing time at third for Brock Holt and potentially Will Middlebrooks. The decimated rotation will be replenished shortly by Boston's bountiful minor league arms with Anthony Ranuado, Henry Owens, Matt Barnes, and others on their way.

But don't give Cherington too much credit for essentially fixing his own mistake of not doing enough to help the team last winter. Had he, they wouldn't be in last place and none of this would have been necessary. He wouldn't have needed to break out the brooms and clean house on a team that could and should have been able to at least be competitive in a weak AL East this year. The lovable band of bearded idiots could have stayed together a little while longer.

Nowadays it's impossible to keep championship teams together for very long. I get that. But you think they could have at least survived the summer.

Peavy Perfect Fit

The Red Sox made a trading deadline splash by acquiring Peavy

Boston Red Sox GM Ben Cherington bolstered his starting rotation today via a three-way trade that brings Jake Peavy to Beantown and sends Jose Iglesias to Motown.

This is a great move for the Sox, who don't expect Clay Buchholz to return until September and needed another arm for their playoff push. Peavy, an All-Star last year, is 8-4 with a 4.28 ERA over 13 starts so far in 2013. He solidifies a formidable rotation that already features Jon Lester, John Lackey, Ryan Dempster, and Felix Doubront, pushing rookie Brandon Workman into the bullpen.

Age and injuries have taken their toll on the 32 year-old's arm and velocity in recent years. While he's no longer the Cy Young-caliber starter he was half a decade ago, he's still an above average hurler who can make a difference down the stretch. Peavy's posted stellar peripherals to date, including a 4.47 K/BB ratio (the best mark of his career), and 1.14 WHIP. His 8.6 K/9 rate is the highest it's been since 2009, and his 3.68 xFIP is right in line with his career mark of 3.65. With better luck, his ERA could easily be half a run lower.

Credit Cherington for netting a strong return in Peavy without having to surrender much in the way of prospects: three so-so guys, none of whom are named Xander Bogaerts or Jackie Bradley Jr. The club won't miss Iglesias, either, even though he's one of the best defenders around and was hitting .330 at the time of the trade. The simple truth is that Iglesias, who has no power whatsoever and is slumping badly (.216/.250/.225 since June 26th), isn't a capable major league hitter and probably never will be. If he was, John Farrell wouldn't be batting him ninth. With Bogaerts and possibly Will Middlebrooks waiting in the wings, Iglesias was expendable with trade value that might never be higher. Cherington was smart to deal him while his numbers were still inflated by his .376 (and falling) BABiP.

There are two more things I like about this deal. The first is that Peavy, who is under contract for next year, isn't merely a two month rental. Barring injury, he'll play a prominent role with the Sox in 2014. The second is that the departure of Iglesias creates a vacancy at third base. Normally that would be a bad thing, but in this case it opens the door for Bogaerts to join the big club in the near future. The 20 year-old phenom has been hitting well with Pawtucket (.854 OPS) and deserves a crack at the Show.

No offense to Brock Holt, but hopefully Cherington doesn't make Bogaerts wait much longer.

MLB Hot Stove winners

After examing the offseason's five biggest losers yesterday, today I take a look at five teams that won the winter.

Atlanta Braves
The Braves brought in some much-needed righthanded pop in the form of the Upton brothers, who will team with Jason Heyward to form the National League's most exciting outfield. Though they failed to acquire a strong replacement for Chipper Jones (Chris Johnson is replacement level at best) and lack catching depth behind Brian McCann (Gerald Laird? pass), the Braves are primed for another playoff run in 2013.

Boston Red Sox
Boston began the offseason by firing Bobby Valentine, the man responsible for so much of the controversy and dysfunction that plagued the Red Sox last season. Ben Cherington found a good replacement in John Farrell, a former Red Sox pitching coach whom many members of the team (Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Dustin Pedroia) respect. He satisfied David Ortiz with a contract extension, then went about reshaping the roster with cheap, productive character guys. Cherington signed Mike Napoli to replace Adrian Gonzalez, Shane Victorino to man right field (then slide over to center when/if Jacoby Ellsbury leaves) and Ryan Dempster to fill Josh Beckett's void in the rotation. He also added David Ross to complement Jarrod Saltalamacchia behind the plate, imported lefty-masher Jonny Gomes and traded for All-Star closer Joel Hanrahan, thus relegating Andrew Bailey to eighth inning duties. The Sox needed a new shortstop after trading Mike Aviles and found a decent one in Stephen Drew, younger brother of J.D. Drew, who played the last five years of his career in Boston and collected $70 million for his services.  All winter long Cherington preached patience and discipline, and the mantra seems to have paid off. There's no question the Red Sox will be a better team in 2013--the only question is will they be good enough to reach the postseason for the first time in four years?

Cleveland Indians
The Tribe lost 94 games last year but got significantly better this winter. They upgraded their outfield outfield by signing Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, signed slugging corner infielder Mark Reynolds to a cheap one-year deal and traded for Trevor Bauer, who projects to be a future ace. With veteran skipper Terry Francona at the helm, Cleveland now has one of the best managers of the past decade at the reins. The Indians aren't talented enough to surpass the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central but have the pieces to move above .500 for the first time since 2007.

Seattle Mariners
Besides locking up their staff ace/face of the franchise for the rest of the decade, the M's brought in plenty of offensive firepower in the way of Michael Morse, Jason Bay, Kendrys Morales, Raul Ibanez, and Kelly Shoppach, all of whom will be the first Mariners to benefit from Safeco Field's closer fences. The starting rotation could use more depth, but King Felix is an ideal hurler to build around. The Mariners will have their hands full with the Rangers, Angels, and A's this year, but they could be sneaky-good and post a winning record in baseball's toughest division.

Toronto Blue Jays
The Jaybirds look like World Series favorites (on paper, at least) after completing two blockbuster trades to bring in Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, and reigning NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey. Not to mention, Melky Cabrera could turn out to be a massive steal for a two-year, $16 million commitment.

Red Sox Avoid Arbitration Drama

The Boston Red Sox have had a busy holiday weekend so far.  General Manager Ben Cherington reached agreements with all eight of Boston's arbitration-eligible players, listed below. He also came to terms with Mike Napoli, who signed with the Red Sox six weeks ago but was flagged after his physical revealed a hip condition. The new deal is much cheaper; a one-year, $5 million contract that could be worth up to $13 million with incentives.

Jacoby Ellsbury: one-year, $9.5 million
-Possibly the last paycheck Ellsbury ever receives from the Boston Red Sox, for the Scott Boras client is expected to cost a pretty penny when he hits the free agent market next winter. If he walks, expect the speedy center fielder to go out with a bang (read: big contract year).

Joel Hanrahan: one-year, $7.04 million
-Boston's new closer nearly doubled his 2012 salary but will still earn little more than half of what the Philadelphia Phillies are paying Jonathan Papelbon.

Craig Breslow: two-year, $6.25 million
-The well-traveled southpaw has put together a solid career coming out of the bullpen and continued to pitch well after the Arizona Diamondbacks shipped him up to Boston for Scott Podsednik and Matt Albers. His deal includes an option for a third year.

Alfredo Aceves: one-year, $2.65 million
-Thrust into the closer's role when Bailey got hurt last year, Aceves struggled from the outset and never looked comfortable. Buried himself in Bobby Valentine's doghouse by the end of the summer, so Ace should benefit from a fresh start under new manager John Farrell. Expect him to be the dependable middle reliever he was for Boston in 2011, when he went 10-2 with a 2.61 ERA.

Andrew Bailey: one-year, $4.1 million
-The former Rookie of the Year will serve as a setup man for the first time in his career and might need some time to adjust to his new role. I'm willing to chalk up his failed 2012 to injury and give him a second chance in 2013.

Daniel Bard: one-year, $1.86 million
-Moving Bard to the starting rotation backfired last year, but hopefully he can put the failed experiment behind him and dominate hitters like he did for most of 2011.


Franklin Morales: one-year, $1.49 million
-Has been a solid addition to Boston's bullpen since Theo Epstein purchased him from the Colorado Rockies in the spring of 2011. Morales stunk with the Rockies but has revived his career with Boston, where he's averaged nearly a strikeout per inning and holds a 117 ERA+. There's been talk that Morales, who made nine starts in 2012, may be converted into a starting pitcher, especially if John Lackey bombs in his return to the rotation.


Andrew Miller: one-year, 1.48 million
-The former first round draft pick cost the Red Sox a playoff spot two years ago, when Terry Francona gave him a dozen starts in place of the injured Clay Buchholz. Working exclusively out of the bullpen, the perennial disappointment settled down last year and developed into a useful reliever for Bobby V. Miller maintained an impressive 11.4 K/9 over his 53 relief appearances to complement his 3.35 ERA (131 ERA+) and 1.19 WHIP.

After addressing the team's most pressing concerns, Cherington's payroll currently sits around $145 million. Spring training starts in a month, so he's likely done with major moves for the winter. While he's improved the team considerably without overpaying for big name free agents such as Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke, and Anibal Sanchez, I don't think he turned the Red Sox back into contenders overnight. Napoli, Hanrahan, Shane Victorino, and Ryan Dempster are all good players, but can they do enough to help a 93 loss-team reach the postseason?

 We'll find out soon enough.

Red Sox trade for Hanrahan

After completing a flurry of moves earlier in the month, the Boston Red Sox bolstered their bullpen by trading for All-Star closer Joel Hanrahan. Hanrahan will supplant Andrew Bailey, a two-time All-Star himself, as the team's primary closer. New skipper John Farrell will relegate Bailey to eighth inning duties.

Bailey was a huge disappointment in his Red Sox debut. The 2009 AL Rookie of the Year injured his thumb during Spring Training and required reconstructive surgery. The injury-prone reliever did not return until August 14th, at which point Boston was below .500 and fading out of the playoff picture. Bailey pitched well initially and replaced Alfredo Aceves as Bobby Valentine's closer down the stretch, but struggled mightily in September. He saved only six games in nine chances last year and finished the season with a bloated 7.04 ERA, not exactly what Ben Cherington had in mind when he traded Josh Reddick and two prospects to acquire Bailey and Ryan Sweeney from Billy Beane's Oakland A's last winter.

364 days later, the Red Sox sent Mark Melancon, Stolmy Pimentel, Ivan De Jesus and Jerry Sands to Pittsburgh in exchange for Hanrahan and second baseman Brock Holt. Hanrahan has quietly been one of baseball's better closers in the last two years. In 2011, his first season as an everyday closer, he saved 40 games, posted a tidy 1.83 ERA and made his first All-Star team. He was named to the All-Star team again last year even though his ERA rose by nearly a full run and his walk rate more than doubled. On the bright side, his K/9 ratio jumped from 8.0 to 10.1, a figure right in line with his career 9.9 mark, and he still saved 36 games.

However, there's underlying evidence that his recent success has been enhanced by good fortune. In 2011 just one of the 54 fly balls he allowed left the park. Last year his opponents mustered a paltry .225 BABiP against him, and Hanrahan managed to strand almost 90 percent of runners that reached base against him. Accordingly, his 4.45 FIP, 4.28 xFIP, 4.26 tERA and 3.80 SIERA were all well above his 2.72 ERA, indicating that he did not pitch nearly as well as his ERA suggests.

Regression to the mean combined with the transition to a less favorable pitching environment could spell trouble for Hanrahan in his American League debut. He's still a plus reliever, just not as dominant as some of his numbers suggest. He's no Jonathan Papelbon but represents a significant upgrade over the wildly inconsistent Aceves-Bailey tandem from last year. Assuming Hanrahan stays healthy and holds on to his closer's job, I'd expect around 35 saves and an ERA in the low-threes from him next year. 2013 is a contract year for the 31 year-old, so hopefully that extra motivation translates into strong results on the field.

The Red Sox are also reportedly pursuing first baseman Adam LaRoche, which indicates the team might back out from the three-year agreement they reached with Mike Napoli. Talks have stalled with the All-Star catcher because of a hip condition discovered during his physical. This health risk prompted Boston's front office to change the language of his new contract to protect themselves should he miss an extended period of time.

LaRoche, 33, is coming off a career year of sorts in which he won a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, and finished sixth in the NL MVP race. The Washington Nationals would like to bring him back but aren't willing to offer more than two guaranteed years. Unlike Napoli, LaRoche is a first baseman by trade who defends his position better than the converted backstop. I'd still rather have the right-handed slugger, who's two years younger, loves hitting in Fenway and would add more balance to Boston's lineup.

But Laroche is a good plan B. After all, a consistent player who belted 33 home runs last season and amassed 100 RBI in 2010 and 2012 wouldn't be a bad consolation prize.