13 Bold Predictions for 2013

1. The Boston Red Sox make the playoffs
Why this is bold: The Red Sox lost 93 games last year and haven't won a postseason game since 2008. They improved during the offseason but failed to land the kind of high-impact player capable of adding six or seven wins to a roster by himself.

2. The New York Yankees miss the playoffs
Why this is bold: The Bronx bombers are October mainstays, having reached the postseason 17 times in the past 18 years. They won 95 games last year and enter 2013 with the highest payroll in the American League, a deep starting rotation and a veteran lineup loaded with All-Stars at almost every position.

3. B.J. Upton goes 30/30
Why this is bold: Upton's combination of power and speed is tantalizing, but he's yet to put together a 30/30 season. His power is trending upward but the fact remains that he's averaged just 18 home runs per season over the last five. Furthermore, his stolen base totals have decreased in each of the last two years, falling from 42 in 2010 to 36 in 2011 and 31 in 2012. I'm probably picking the wrong Upton.

4. Mariano Rivera leads the American League in saves
Why this is bold: The greatest closer of all time spent most of 2012 recovering from knee surgery after shredding his ACL while shagging fly balls during batting practice. Signed a one-year deal worth $10 million to return in 2013, but he's 43 years-old and Father Time is going to catch up to him at some point.

5. The Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Indians both have winning records
Why this is bold: Neither team had a winning record last year (or in 2011, or 2010, for that matter). The Mariners face stiff competition in the AL West, arguably the toughest division in baseball with LA, Oakland, and Texas all capable of winning 90+ ballgames. Furthermore, the two clubs haven't enjoyed winning seasons in the same year since 2007.

6. Dan Haren wins 20 games
Why this is bold: Haren's career high for wins is 16. Also, he's 32 years-old and coming off his worst full season as a pro.

7. Nick Swisher hits fewer than 20 home runs
Why this is bold: Since becoming an everyday player in 2005, Swish has never failed to smack less than 21 home runs in a season (averaging 26 per year). He's one of just six players who can claim that; the others are  Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Alfonso Soriano, Mark Teixeira, and David Ortiz.

8. Michael Young bats over .300
Why this is bold: Young is 36 and coming off his worst season in over a decade after batting just .277/.312/.370. He's batted below .285 in two of the past three years and seems to have entered the decline phase of his career. It certainly doesn't help that he's leaving the Ballpark in Arlington, where he batted .320 as opposed to .283 everywhere else.

9 Zack Greinke wins the NL Cy Young award
Why this is bold: Since winning the 2009 AL Cy Young in a landslide, Greinke's compiled a 3.83 ERA and has failed to receive a single vote for the award. Plus, he has formidable competition in his own rotation in the form of Clayton Kershaw.

10. Jim Johnson and Fernando Rodney combined have fewer saves than the AL saves leader
Why this is bold: Johnson led the major leagues with 51 saves last year, and Rodney was right behind him with 48.

11. Bryce Harper is better than Mike Trout
Why this is bold: The AL Rookie of the Year outproduced the NL Rookie of the Year in almost every conceivable metric last year.

12. Derek Jeter plays in fewer than 100 games
Why this is bold: Jeter may not be Cal Ripken Jr., but he's borderline indestructible. The Yankee legend has averaged 151 games played per year since winning the AL Rookie of the Year award in 1996, playing at least 148 games every year except for two (2003 and 2011).

13. The Toronto Blue Jays won't win the World Series
Why this is bold: Everyone's picking the bolstered Blue Jays to win the Fall Classic after a busy offseason in which Toronto added R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Melky Cabrera without giving up any of their established talent.

Projecting the Braves Outfield

With Justin Upton  on board, Atlanta has assembled a dynamic outfield

Nearly two months after signing B.J. Upton to the largest free agent contract in Atlanta Braves history, the organization consummated a seven-player trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks in which Justin Upton, B.J.'s little brother, was the centerpiece. The Braves also received Chris Johnson in exchange for Martin Prado and four prospects: Randall Delgado, Nick Ahmed, Zeke Spruill and Brandon Dury.

With the multi-talented Upton brothers joining Jason Heyward, who's been compared to Ken Griffey Jr., the Braves boast one of the best outfields in baseball. All three are toolsy ballplayers that blend power with speed. They're also former first round draft picks (both Uptons were selected first overall) that still have room to grow.

It will be interesting to see how the Uptons adjust to their new surroundings, but both could be in line for career years. They wore out their welcomes with their previous employers and desperately needed changes of scenery.  Freed from the burdens of unfulfilled expectations that destroy so many highly touted prospects, they should benefit from fresh starts. It's possible the elder Upton struggles to live up to his new five-year, $75 million contract (especially if Michael Bourn outplays him), but his kid brother should be extra motivated to make the D-Backs rue the day they gave up on him.

So how will they fare in 2013? I'm optimistic that Atlanta's trio of stars will post strong numbers this year, and readily admit they have the potential to exceed my predictions. Bossman Junior owns the longest track record and has been the most consistent, so he was the easiest to project. His little brother's been an every-other-year player so far, which means he's due for a big year after slumping through 2012. The J-Hey Kid has less than 500 big league games under his belt and isn't much older than the typical college graduate, but he's already one of the better all-around players in baseball.

LF Justin Upton
At 25, Upton is just coming into his prime and could emerge as the superstar/MVP candidate he's supposed to be. His 2012 (1.8 bWAR) was equal parts frustrating and disappointing even though he scored more runs than any National Leaguer not named Ryan Braun. A thumb injury sapped his power, holding his slugging percentage below .400 through late-August and causing his ISO to plunge 90 points. It's worth noting that he looked better at the plate as the season wore on and finished the year on a tear that could be a harbinger of good things to come. Much has been made about his massive home/road splits--.937 OPS at Chase Field, .731 OPS everywhere else--but he's posted solid numbers (.871 OPS against formidable pitching, I might add) at Turner Field throughout his career. And ohbytheway, he's just one season removed from a fourth place MVP finish/31-homer campaign. Expect numbers much closer to, or possibly better than, that year rather than his underwhelming follow-up.

My Projections: 103 runs, 30 home runs, 94 RBI, 22 steals, .291/.370/.516, 4.4 bWAR

CF B.J. Upton
At this point in Upton's career, after nearly 1,000 games and more than 4,000 plate appearances, we know what he is; a low average, high strikeout player with good pop, great speed and decent defense. His improved power stroke suggests he's still evolving as a hitter and could crack 30 home runs for the first time in 2013. On the surface, moving out of pitching-friendly Tropicana Field to Turner Field, a more neutral park for hitters, should boost his numbers, but during his time in Tampa his home/road splits were indistinguishable: .758 OPS at home and .757 away.

My Projections: 84 runs, 26 home runs, 83 RBI, 37 steals, .252/.314/.448, 2.7 bWAR

RF Jason Heyward
Shrugged off a down 2011 (sophomore slump?) and bounced back strong last year. Compiled his first 20/20 season (there's more where that came from), won his first Gold Glove and helped lead the Braves to 94 wins. The sky's the limit for Heyward, but at 23 he's still a few years away from his peak. I don't see him taking the same kind of leap that Matt Kemp and Andrew McCutchen made in recent seasons, so I don't feel comfortable projecting monster numbers from him just yet. Like Griffey, Mickey Mantle and Duke Snider, he probably won't reach his superstar MVP-level ceiling until his mid-twenties, but he's on the right track.

My Projections: 98 runs, 25 home runs, 90 RBI, 22 steals, .274/.356/.473, 5.8 bWAR

2012 MLB All Bust Team (NL)

C Brian McCann
2011:  51 runs  24 home runs  71 RBI  3 steals  .270/.351/.466
2012:  44 runs  20 home runs  67 RBI  3 steals  .230/.300/.399

1B Ryan Howard (dishonorable mention to Gaby Sanchez, Todd Helton, and Carlos Lee)
2011:  81 runs  33 home runs  116 RBI  1 steal  .253/.346/.488
2012:  28 runs  14 home runs   56 RBI  0 steals  .219/.295/.423

2B Dan Uggla
2011:  88 runs  36 home runs  82 RBI  1 steal  .233/.311/.453
2012:  86 runs  19 home runs  78 RBI  4 steals .220/.348/.384

3B Ryan Roberts
2011:  86 runs  19 home runs  65 RBI  18 steals  .249/.341/.427
2012:  51 runs  12 home runs  42 RBI  10 steals  .235/.296/.360

SS Troy Tulowitzki
2011:  81 runs  30 home runs  105 RBI  9 steals  .302/.372/.544
2012:  33 runs   8 home runs    27 RBI   2 steals  .287/.360/.486

OF Justin Upton
2011:  105 runs  31 home runs  88 RBI  21 steals  .289/.369/.529
2012:  107 runs  17 home runs  67 RBI  18 steals  .280/.355/.430

OF Chris Young
2011:  89 runs  20 home runs  71 RBI  22 steals  .236/.331/.420
2012:  36 runs  14 home runs  41 RBI   8 steals   .231/.311/.434

OF Logan Morrison
2011:  54 runs  23 home runs  72 RBI  2 steals  .247/.330/.468
2012:  30 runs  11 home runs  36 RBI  1 steal   .230/.308/.399

SP Roy Halladay
2011:  19-6  2.35 ERA  1.04 WHIP  220 strikeouts
2012:  11-8  4.49 ERA  1.22 WHIP  132 strikeouts

SP Daniel Hudson
2011:  16-12  3.49 ERA  1.20 WHIP  169 strikeouts
2012:   3-2   7.35 ERA   1.63 WHIP   37 strikeouts

SP Tim Lincecum
2011:  13-14  2.74 ERA  1.21 WHIP  220 strikeouts
2012:  10-15  5.18 ERA  1.47 WHIP  190 strikeouts

SP Randy Wolf
2011:  13-10  3.69 ERA  1.32 WHIP  134 strikeouts
2012:  5-10   5.65 ERA   1.57 WHIP  104 strikeouts

SP Jair Jurrjens
2011:  13-6  2.96 ERA  1.22 WHIP  90 strikeouts
2012:   3-4   6.89 ERA  1.86 WHIP  19 strikeouts

RP Fernando Salas
2011:  5-6  2.28 ERA  0.95 WHIP  75 strikeouts  24 saves
2012:  1-4  4.30 ERA  1.42 WHIP  60 strikeouts  0 saves

CL Heath Bell (also considered John Axford, Brian Wilson and Frank Francisco)
2011:  3-4  2.44 ERA  1.15 WHIP  51 strikeouts  43 saves
2012:  4-5  5.09 ERA  1.56 WHIP  59 strikeouts  19 saves

Scroll down to see the AL team. To see the 2011 NL team, go here.

Braves Land Upton

Yesterday the Atlanta Braves made a splash by inking B.J. Upton to a five year deal worth $75.25 million, the largest free agent contract in the team's history.

Justin Upton's older brother will replace free agent Michael Bourn in center field. Bourn (now favored to sign with Philadelphia) is also seeking a five year deal but turns 30 next month, so Atlanta deemed him to be a riskier investment than Upton, who posted the worst OBP and walk rate of his career last year.

Bossman Junior has been something of an enigma throughout his major league career. He appeared to be on the path to superstardom after slugging 24 home runs, swiping 22 bases and batting .300/.386/.508 as a tender 22 year-old in 2007. But instead of making the leap like Matt Kemp and Andrew McCutchen have, Upton regressed and became a perennial disappointment. He clearly possesses all the tools, but has yet to put them together and probably never will.  To make matters worse, he's stubborn and immature with a history of clashing with management and teammates when they rightfully question his lack of effort and focus.

His mental approach has prevented him from realizing his abundant potential, and so the chasm between what he is and what grows wider with each frustrating season.  Since breaking out five years ago he's batted an underwhelming .248/.330/.416 while averaging 18 home runs and 69 RBI per year; hardly superstar production. The former second overall pick of the 2002 draft has been labeled as an underachiever, a gifted player content to coast on his abundant natural ability without putting in the hard work that could make him a franchise centerpiece.  Middling power numbers, massive strikeout totals and cringe-worthy batting averages have torpedoed what is supposed to be the prime of his career.  He's never been selected to an All-Star team, received a single MVP vote or taken home any hardware in the form of Silver Sluggers, Gold Gloves or World Series rings.  His amazing 2008 ALDS and ALCS teased us by providing a breathtaking glimpse of Upton's ability to get in the zone and take his game to unbelievable heights.

But he just doesn't reach them often enough.  He's maddeningly inconsistent, prone to lengthy slumps and constant headaches.  The Rays, clearly frustrated with his lack of progress and poor attitude, shopped him in the past. They were willing to part ways with him because he was more trouble than he was worth, and because they have the second coming of B.J. Upton in Desmond Jennings (a toolsy outfielder with a .248/.327/.406 career batting line)

Hopefully a change of scenery will do him some good.  Maybe he'll be more motivated and will try harder now that he plays in a city where fans actually show up to games every now and then. The move from pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field to the more neutral Turner Field should help boost his numbers a bit even though Upton's career home/road splits are identical. After all, he did post career highs with his 28 dingers (12 in September) and 260 total bases 2012. His home run totals have improved every year since 2008, jumping from nine to 28, which leads one to wonder if he can continue this trend and become a 30/30 player in 2013.

But is Upton a better investment than Bourn? I don't think so. Upton is two years younger, but over the past five seasons Bourn has been almost twice as valuable. Check it out:

Bourn 3,222 PAs  18.3 bWAR  .272/.338/.365   91 OPS+
Upton 3,149 PAs  10.3 bWAR  .248/.330/.416  104 OPS+

It's tough to compare the two because they're totally different players. Bourn is a leadoff (read: singles) hitter who relies on his blazing speed to wreak havoc on the basepaths. Upton is like Jason Heyward, a middle-of-the-order bat who balances power with speed. Upton's power (more home runs last year than Bourn has in his entire career) makes him a superior hitter, but Bourn is the better baserunner and defender.

But Bourn has reached his ceiling. He is coming off a season in which he set personal bests in bWAR, home runs, RBI, walks, slugging, and OPS. Atlanta's front office was worried that Bourn's speed, his most valuable asset, would diminish with age/that he would fall apart like Carl Crawford has. But plenty of speedsters have remained valuable into their thirties, from Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines to Ichiro Suzuki and Juan Pierre (a good comp for Bourn who just batted .307 in his age-34 season). I understand why GM Frank Wren shied away from Bourn and overpaid Upton instead. Upton is younger, adds more pop and provides a much-needed right-handed bat for a lineup loaded with southpaw mashers like Heyward, Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann  It probably won't make much of a difference either way, given how close the two players are in terms of value.

And if Upton ever figures it out and becomes the player he's capable of, this deal will look like quite a bargain five years from now.