Fowler Fits Cubs Plan

Trading for Fowler is a win-now move by the Cubs (USA Today)

The Chicago Cubs continued to improve this offseason, swapping a utility man (Luis Valbuena) and a busted starting pitcher (Dan Straily) to the Houston Astros for Dexter Fowler yesterday.

The Cubs sold high on Valbuena, their third baseman who enjoyed a career year last year at 28. With uberprospect Kris Bryant expected to take over at the hot corner shortly, Valbuena had become expendable, so Chicago turned him and Straily into a center fielder, something the Cubs never really had last year.

Former skipper Rick Renteria relied primarily on Emilio Bonifacio (fine utility guy, but not an everyday player) and, after Bonifacio was dealt to the Braves, a raw 22 year-old rookie by the name of Arismendy Alcantara, who did his best Jackie Bradley, Jr. impression by posting a paltry .621 OPS. Junior Lake, Ryan Sweeney, and Justin Ruggiano, none of whom are any good, also spent significant time in center. Not surprisingly, Chicago got next-to-nothing from its center fielders, who batted a measly .222/.264/.346 last year, making that the team's weakest position OPS-wise. No team got less offense from its center fielders than the Cubs, who had the third-worst crew of center fielders overall based on fWAR.

Fowler, a solidly above average hitter with an established track record, represents a clear upgrade offensively that figures to add several wins to Chicago's ledger this year. The Cubs are getting a 29 year-old center fielder who's typically good for 10-15 home runs, 10-15 steals, and a very high on-base percentage every year. Last year, the former Rockie proved he could hit away from Coors Field by enjoying his best offensive season on a league and park adjusted basis with a 124 wRC+, batting .276/.375/.399 despite missing seven weeks in the middle of the season with back tightness.

That high OBP wasn't a fluke, either. Fowler has always been great at getting on base and owns a .366 career OBP to prove it. The switch-hitting leadoff man also brings some speed to the table, having swiped 94 bases and legged out 57 triples over the past six seasons. Despite his mediocre theft success rate (67.6 percent), he ranks 25th in baserunning value since the start of the 2009 season. He's no Juan Pierre either, offering slightly above average power (career .149 ISO) that stands to benefit from Wrigley Field's friendly confines.

While Fowler is a good hitter, he is not without flaws. He strikes out a lot for someone who's never hit 15 homers or slugged .475 in a season, and the metrics have never loved his defense. Like many Rockies past and present, Fowler's also had trouble staying healthy, as he's never played 145 games or recorded 500 official at-bats in any season. As such, B-R and FanGraphs agree that he has never once been worth three WAR.

Fowler is also not a long-term fix. Now in his final year of arbitration, he expects to earn around $10 million this year before becoming a free agent next winter, meaning he's a not inexpensive short-term solution.

But he is a solution, and a good one at that. With Chicago leaning on so many youngsters to carry the offensive load this season, Fowler is a proven performer with a steady history of success. In addition to setting the table for the likes of Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Jorge Soler, he'll add some much-needed veteran presence and leadership to a team short on both. Best of all, he's a good center fielder, which is something the Cubs desperately needed (but could trade if they stumble through another terrible season).

Based on their splashy Jon Lester signing and serious pursuit of Russell Martin earlier this winter, the Cubbies are making a strong push to contend in 2015. Fowler fits into the plan.

Nationals Sign Scherzer

Did the Nationals really need another top-flight starting pitcher? (DodgersNation)

The Washington Nationals won 96 games and the NL East last year, largely thanks to a talented pitching staff that topped the majors in ERA, FIP, and fWAR. Their loaded rotation, comprised of Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, and Tanner Roark, were primarily responsible for that, delivering 936 innings of 2.92 ERA-ball and missing just 13 starts between them. With all of them healthy, in their 20s (save Fister), and under contract for 2015, the Nationals did not need pitching help. They were more than set.

Max Scherzer, the 2013 AL Cy Young winner and a free agent*, was a $200 million luxury Washington didn't need. And yet, Scherzer is now a member of the Washington Nationals. Unless the rumors of a possible Strasburg or Zimmermann trade come to fruition, he'll bump Tanner Roark, a borderline Cy Young candidate who compiled a 2.85 ERA in just under 200 innings last year, to the bullpen.

Look out, National League.

*Scherzer, who boldly rejected Detroit's six-year, $144 million contract extension offer prior to the 2014 season, looks like a genius, by the way. He bet on himself, had another big season, and reaped the rewards. 

Just when you thought the Nats couldn't get any more stacked, they go out and ink the prize possession of this winter's free agent pool. In an era where most teams are settling for mediocrity, hoping for 85+ wins and a shot at the second wild card, Washington is one of the few franchises trying to separate themselves from the pack. They're all in.

Thing is, the Nationals were already head and shoulders above the rest of the NL East. Last year, they were the only team with a winning record in their division, which they won by an astounding 17 games. Even with the Marlins and Mets projected to be better this year, Washington was still heavily favored to end up in first place again. The aging Phillies are only getting worse and the re-shuffling Braves will probably be about the same, if not worse. There was no serious challenger threatening Washington's ironclad grip on the NL East in 2015.

Now, the division title that was all but guaranteed to go to Washington is only more of a sure thing. They now claim the best 1-2 top of the rotation punch outside of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, backed by a former 20-game winner in Gonzalez and a pair of top-notch arms in Zimmermann and Fister. All have received Cy Young consideration at least once in the last three years, and nobody's going to be older than 31 this year. Roark, should he stick around, provides excellent insurance if an injury crops up. Throw in a lights-out bullpen and a formidable starting nine and you have a team that could easily win 100 games in 2015, no small feat given the improved parity throughout the sport.

Did the Washington Nationals need Max Scherzer? Probably not*. But are they a better team with him on board? Absolutely. They say you can never have enough pitching, but it appears the Nats have more than enough to take them all the way. I know it's only January, but I think the Nationals just punched their ticket to the World Series.

*Though I can see why Washington wanted Scherzer. Fister's on the wrong side of 30, Gonzalez got hurt in an uneven 2014, Strasburg and Zimmermann are recovered Tommy John patients, and Roark has a mere 36 big league starts under his belt. Pitchers are inherently risky, and everyone in the Nationals rotation had at least one question mark. There's no such thing as a sure thing in baseball, especially when it comes to pitching. Scherzer's also one of the five best pitchers in baseball, so there's that.

2015 MVP Predictions

AL MVP: Mike Trout

It’s a well-known fact that Mike Trout is the best all-around player in baseball. His combination of elite power, speed, and defense at a premium position is unmatched in the game today. 

Trout is the total package. Over the past three years he has been the sport's best hitter on a league and park-adjusted basis, leading all of baseball with a 170 wRC+ (meaning he created 70 percent more runs than a league average hitter would have in the same number of plate appearances) while also ranking first inbaserunning value. Not surprisingly, he has produced more offensive value in the last three years than anyone else, all while playing a solid, if sometimes spectacular, center field. 

As such, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs ranked Trout as baseball’s most valuable player in each of thepast three seasons based on wins above replacement (WAR). This trio of standout seasons has resulted in three straight All-Star nods and impressive MVP results for Trout, who was runner-up to Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and 2013 before winningunanimously last season, becoming the youngest player ever to do so. 

While Trout is clearly a superstar according to these advanced metrics, his excellence is also apparent in the traditional stats that voters love. Since the start of the 2012 season he ranks first in runs scored, second in slugging percentage, third in on-base percentage, fifth in RBI (a favorite stat of MVP voters), seventh in home runs, and eighth in steals and batting average.   

Playing time is an important factor in MVP voting as well, and Trout is no slouch in this regard. Athletic, durable, and built like a tank, he’s never spent a day on the Disabled List and played in 157 of a possible 162 games in each of the last two years. Trout has a clean bill of health and should have no problems staying on the field this year. 

It also helps that Trout plays for a great team in a big market: the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels had the best record in baseball last year, winning 98 games and cruising to the AL West title by a 10 game margin over the Oakland A’s. With their two most serious challengers, the A’s and Seattle Mariners, failing to considerably improve so far this offseason, LA has to be considered favorites to repeat as division champs. And with star teammates Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton indecline, Trout is obviously the best and most indispensable player on the Halos, and thus will continue to fare well in MVP voting.  

Lastly, since Trout is just 23 years old, he’s still at an age where he should be getting better, not worse. He’s still a few years away from what are traditionally considered to be a player’s prime years (ages 25-29). Health permitting, Trout is poised to be a force in MVP voting for another decade.

NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen 

Andrew McCutchen is the National League’s answer to Mike Trout; a supremely gifted all-around center fielder at the top of his game. Per the FanGraphs version of WAR, McCutchen has been the second-most valuable position player since the start of the 2012 season, trailing only the aforementioned Angels superstar. Like Trout, ‘Cutch has won an MVP in a landslide and came close two other times. So long as he’s healthy, McCutchen figures to be a strong candidate again in 2015. 

Though McCutchen’s offensive statistics are not always overwhelming—he has just one 30-homer season on his resume and has never knocked in 100 runs—he’s produced far more offensive value than any other National Leaguer over the past three years. He owns the league’s highest batting average, on-base percentage, and wRC+ during that span, as well as its third-highest slugging percentage and weighted on-base average (wOBA).  In fact, McCutchen is the only major leaguer to exceed a .300 batting average, .400 OBP, and .500 SLG in all three of those seasons. Like Trout, he received three Silver Sluggers for those same seasons as well. 

McCutchen is also a very good baserunner, having stolen no less than 18 bases in all six of his big league seasons and averaging 24 per year at a 74 percent success rate. His defense, while not highly rated by advanced metrics, passes the “eye test” (meaning he looks like a good fielder to the casual observer) and was rewarded with a Gold Glove in 2012. 

Last season’s short DL-stint notwithstanding, McCutchen has also been exceptionally durable throughout his career. He played at least 154 games every year from 2010 to 2013. After spending the minimum 15 days on the Disabled List with a rib injury last August, he suffered no drop-off in his performance after returning and helped lead Pittsburgh back to the postseason by posting a1.042 OPS in September. And at 28 years old, McCutchen is squarely in his prime coming off four consecutive All-Star seasons, so one would not expect his performance to fall drastically this year. 

Although the Pirates do not play in a big market, they are a relevant team due to their recent success. They’ve finished second in the NL Central each of the last two seasons, making the playoffs both years after going 20 seasons (1993-2012) without a postseason berth. Their division will be more crowded this year with the emergence of the Cubs and a likely rebound from the Reds, but Pittsburgh boasts a young, quality team that should be in the mix for several more years at least. And because the Pirates are built around depth more so than star power, McCutchen is far and away the best player on his team, which guarantees MVP consideration if they do well. 

McCutchen might not be as much of a sure thing as Trout, especially if Giancarlo Stanton has another monster season or Bryce Harper puts it all together, but he’s pretty much guaranteed to be in the running for the next few years. If he doesn't win in 2015, he'll at least come close.

2015 Comeback Candidates (NL)

Uggla is hoping to win a job with the Nationals this year (Chat Sports)

The following National Leaguers should do better in 2015 than they did a year ago.

C Wilin Rosario
After cranking 49 home runs and posting an .820 OPS (107 OPS+) between 2012 and 2013 combined, a couple of DL stints limited the Rockies backstop to just 13 home runs and a .739 OPS (93 OPS+) last year. Health permitting, he'll hit much better in his age-26 season.

1B Mark Trumbo
Trumbo's first season in Arizona was a disappointment, as he missed nearly half the season with a stress fracture in his left foot and was worth 1.1 wins below replacement. Seeing as how he averaged 2.6 bWAR from 2011-2013, when he was mostly healthy, and blasted 95 home runs. The 29 year-old slugger deserves a mulligan, unless the Diamondbacks decide to trade him.

2B Dan Uggla
Uggla's career went south in a hurry, from 2012 All-Star to spring training invite with the Washington Nationals. Many pointed to his age as the reason for his dramatic decline, but few were aware that Uggla was playing through an undiagnosed concussion last year, when he had a .442 OPS in 52 games. The condition prevented him from picking up the ball and undoubtedly contributed to his horrendous batting figures. The soon-to-be 35 year-old is still a longshot to make the big club with Anthony Rendon entrenched at the keystone, but the three-time All-Star is suddenly much more intriguing now that he can actually see what he's trying to hit.

3B David Wright
Wright was a mess last year, playing through a shoulder contusion that hampered his power and resulted in what was the worst season of his career by far. The seven-time All-Star should do better than the .698 OPS he managed last year, especially given his proven ability to bounce back from previous down years (2009 and 2011).

SS Jean Segura
The 2013 All-Star stunk last year, hitting just five home runs to go along with his lowly .246/.289/.326 batting line. Hit well down the stretch (.784 OPS after September 2nd), which gives me hope that he'll have more success in his age-25 season. I don't think he's as good as his 2013 numbers suggest, but I'm willing to bet he's better than last year's numbers say he was.

Gonzalez was both hurt and ineffective in 2014 (Rox Walk Off)

OF Bryce Harper
Injuries prevented Harper from being the dynamic player he was in his first two big league campaigns, limiting him to just 100 games, four stolen base attempts, and 13 home runs. Still just 22, Harper has plenty of room to grow, and this could be the year he finally makes the leap to superstardom.

OF Carlos Gonzalez
Gonzalez missed a ton of time last year, needing two separate surgeries on his index finger and left knee. No wonder he batted a meager .238/.292/.431 (89) OPS+ when he did play. Missing time is nothing new to CarGo, who's never played more than 145 games in any season, but even last year's paltry total of 70 was a new career low for him. Expect the 29 year-old former batting champ to be on the field more regularly and play better this year.

OF Jay Bruce
Bruce was brutal last year, bottoming out at ..217/.281/.373 (84 OPS+). He struggled mightily after returning from knee surgery in late May, but says he feels great and should be good to go for 2015. When healthy, Bruce is one of the best right fielders and power hitters in the game, and a big rebound from him will go a long way towards helping Cincinnati contend in the loaded NL Central.

U Ryan Braun
The last two seasons have been well below Braun's standards, but the 31 year-old is still young enough to have another big season or two left in him. The last two years combined he's had 28 homers, 119 RBI, and 15 steals, numbers I see as a good baseline for his 2015 production.

San Francisco could use Cain to get back on track (StanGraphs)

SP Cliff Lee
Lee made just 13 starts last year due to strains in his throwing arm that required two separate trips to the 60 day DL, but was still effective when healthy. The few times Lee was able to pitch, he was the same old guy, putting up a 2.96 FIP and striking out six batters for every one he walked. He's getting up there in years (turns 37 in August), but still appears to have plenty left in the tank.

SP Matt Harvey
Harvey never threw a pitch in 2014 because he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. He was filthy prior to the injury, and the Mets hope he's still filthy when he comes back at age 26.

SP Jose Fernandez
The 2013 NL Rookie of the Year was off to a sizzling start before Tommy John surgery cut his sophomore season short. Miami's hoping their 22 year-old budding ace doesn't skip a beat in his first post-surgery season.

SP Brandon McCarthy
McCarthy pitched 200 innings for the first time last year but wasn't very good, going 10-15 with a 4.05 ERA splitting time between Arizona and New York (Yankees). Lucky for him, he's in the perfect place to rejuvenate his career: Dodger Stadium.'

SP Matt Cain
Cain failed to complete 180 innings for the first time since 2005, making just 15 mediocre starts and missing the entire second half after undergoing elbow surgery to remove bone chips. A clean elbow in his throwing arm should do wonders for Cain, one of the National League's better starting pitchers before last year (an NL version of James Shields, really). The Giants need him to return to form if they want to repeat as World Champions in 2015.

RP Jason Grilli
The 2013 All-Star closer will try to regain his mojo with Atlanta after a down 2014 in which he spent time on the DL, lost his closer's job in Pittsburgh to Mark Melancon, and was traded to the Angels (where he was a setup man in a shaky closer situation). The Braves are going to be bad after trading away their two best positon players--Jason Heyward and Justin Upton--but hopefully Grilli won't be.

2015 Comeback Candidates (AL)

New York re-signed Drew, who looked utterly lost in 2014 (Boston Herald)

Here's my team of American Leaguers who should enjoy more success in 2015 than they did last year.

C Brian McCann
Despite slugging 23 homers and appearing in 140 games, McCann was a significant disappointment in his Yankees debut. He hit only .232 with a career-low .286 OBP--well below his career .350 mark prior to last year. McCann hit considerably better down the stretch, however, with 12 home runs and a .500 slugging percentage from August 2nd onward. 31 next month, he's still young enough to bounce back some, especially in a ballpark well-suited to his strengths. Like Curtis Granderson and Alex Rodriguez, he should do much better in year two with the Yanks.

HM Matt Wieters

1B Prince Fielder
Fielder's first season in Texas was a nightmare, as he started slow, then got hurt just as his bat appeared to be warming up. A herniated disk in his back cost him the last four and a half months of 2014, preventing him from playing 157 games for the first time since 2005. Won't turn 31 until May 9th and will be fully healthy, so should still be capable of providing big numbers in that hitter's paradise.

HM Joe Mauer

2B Jason Kipnis
An All-Star and fringe MVP candidate in 2013, Kipnis was mediocre (85 OPS+) and barely above replacement level in 2014 (0.9 bWAR). His down season was a big reason why the Indians narrowly missed the playoffs. He missed most of May with an oblique strain and never really got back on track after that, hitting just .241/.299/.315 the rest of the way. Look for a big bounce back from Cleveland's keystone defender, who will be 28 this year.

HM Dustin Pedroia

3B Evan Longoria
2014 was easily the worst year of Longoria's career, as he hit only .253 with a career-worst .320 OBP and .404 slugging percentage. His once-sterling defense also took a hit, resulting in his first complete season where he failed to earn an MVP vote. Don't expect that to happen again next year, health permitting, as he's still in the heart of his prime at 29.

HM Chase Headley

SS Stephen Drew
Sure, he'll be another year older (32 in two months), but there's no way he hits .162/.237/.299 (51 OPS+) again.

HM Jed Lowrie

Choo could use a comeback (Kaplan Production)

LF Shin-Soo Choo
Choo was a huge bust in the first year of his seven-year, $130 million contract. Before sitting out September with a bone spur in his elbow, he'd been a far cry from the MVP candidate he was with the Reds in 2013, batting a mere .242/.340/.374 with just 13 home runs and 40 RBI in 123 games. Worse, a nagging ankle sprain hampered his wheels, limiting the perennial 20/20 threat to just seven stolen base attempts before it, too, required surgery. Fully recovered from both surgeries, 2015 Choo should be the guy Texas thought they were getting when they threw all that money at him last winter. I see a Jayson Werth-like resurgence coming here.

HM Alejandro De Aza

CF Austin Jackson
A-Jax struggled mightily after the deadline deal that sent him from Detroit to Seattle, where he batted .229/.267/.260 with just six extra base hits (no homers) in 54 games. Safeco's a much tougher place to hit than Detroit, but look for Jackson to adjust and get back to being a productive center fielder in his age-28 season.

HM Colby Rasmus

RF Shane Victorino
The Flyin' Hawaiian opened the season on the DL with a strained hamstring and was never right. He came back for a month, only to land on the Disabled List by re-injuring his hamstring. He made another brief appearance in July before shutting it down for the year for surgery on a bulging disc in his lower back. Here's to a healthier 2015 for the 34 year-old, who still considers himself Boston's starting right fielder.

HM Allen Craig

DH Billy Butler
Country Breakfast hit a career-low .271/.323/.379 with just nine home runs--his fewest since he hit eight in his abbreviated rookie season. It's also tough to bounce back in Oakland's offense-dampening park, but there was nothing wrong with him physically and he'll be 29 next year. I don't see him hitting .300 with 20 homers again, but .285 with 15 homers should be doable. If Billy Beane's banking on a bounce back, so am I.

HM Kendrys Morales

Nolasco needs a big turnaround (Zimbio)

SP Clay Buchholz
Boston's erstwhile ace was victimized by a lot of bad luck last year and will benefit from positive regression to the mean. Will he stay healthy, though? That's the question.

SP Justin Verlander
Was last year just a down year for Verlander, or is it the beginning of a Tim Lincecum-esque demise? We'll find out soon enough.

SP CC Sabathia
This one doesn't look promising, but the Yankees need him and he's been too good to write off just yet. One more bad year, though...

SP Ricky Nolasco
Nolasco was battered in his American League debut to the tune of a 5.38 ERA in 27 starts. His home run rate doubled, his strikeout rate plunged, and his hit rate soared. His walk rate stayed the same, though, and he somehow got raked for a .351 BABiP even though his line drive and ground ball rates decreased from the previous season. Given that his FIP was more than a run below his ERA, Nolasco is due for better luck this year.

SP Justin Masterson
Boston bought low on the former Red Sox and believe in his bounce back potential. So do I.

RP Daniel Bard.
This Boston Globe article says it all.