2013 Puig vs 2014 Puig

Last year as a 22 year-old rookie, Yasiel Puig played 104 games. This year as a 23 year-old sophomore he's played 104 games so far, and the results have been...almost identical. Still the same awesome numbers, electrifying throws, and jaw-dropping bat flips. Still the same shaky defense, baserunning errors and Robinson Cano-esque lapses in focus that lead to boneheaded mistakes like this one.

But when you're a superstar rookie, as Puig was, then staying the same is hardly a bad thing. Certainly not when you put up numbers like these:

First 104 games: 432 PA 122 H 19 HR 42 RBI 11 SB .319/.391/.534 159 OPS+ 4.9 bWAR
Last 104 games: 447 PA 123 H 13 HR 55 RBI 7 SB .313/.400/.540 165 OPS+ 4.0 bWAR

Puig's done well to improve as a hitter by boosting his walk rate and cutting down his strikeouts. Now if he could just make similar strides in his baserunning and fielding, he'd be the National League's answer to Mike Trout.

McCutchen MVP No More

With McCutchen and Tulowitzki sidelined, the NL MVP is Puig's for the taking

For most of the year it looked like Troy Tulowitzki was going to walk away with NL MVP honors on the strength of his terrific hitting and superlative defense at shortstop. Then he got hurt, as he always does, and his annual trip to the DL has cost him almost three weeks and counting. The injury, combined with his team's last place standing, knocks him off the top of the MVP pyramid. Barring a repeat of his September 2010 performance (15 homers, 40 RBI) he ain't winning.

The next best candidate appeared to be last year's MVP, Andrew McCutchen, but now it seems safe to say that he won’t be the MVP again in 2014. With a fractured rib shelving him for 3-4 weeks and possibly into September, McCutchen’s hopes of repeating were effectively dashed. So with the door wide open, who’s next in line?

Clayton Kershaw’s now the odds-on favorite, and with the kind of season he's having there's a pretty good chance he pulls a Justin Verlander by copping both the Cy Young and MVP awards. (Quick aside, if those ill-fated 2011 Red Sox roll through September the way they did the rest of that season, Jacoby Ellsbury probably wins that MVP. If Boston had won 100 games while playing in baseball’s toughest division, like they were on pace to do, there's no way the MVP goes to a pitcher whose team could have won its division with an 81-81 record. And if Verlander wins 19 games instead of 24, it's not even a discussion).

But Kershaw's missed more than month and that has to be a big strike against him. Obviously if he continues to dominate down the stretch he’ll have a great case, one worth overlooking the lost time. That said, voters have always been more inclined to favor position players rather than pitchers, who already have a hard enough time as it is winning the MVP when they’re healthy. You might recall that before Verlander, a starting pitcher hadn't been named MVP since Roger Clemens in 1986. Position players can afford to miss time and still earn the hardware (see Mickey Mantle in 1962 or Josh Hamilton in 2010), but pitchers, because they pitch so infrequently, aren't granted that same latitude. I can’t remember the last time a starting pitcher missed a good chunk of time and went on to win the MVP, which leads me to believe Kershaw will have a difficult time pulling it off. But if he goes off an another scoreless innings streak, all bets are off.

I also think that in today’s offense-challenged climate, a big bat is more valuable that a good arm. It’s elite hitting, not starting pitching, that’s in short supply, so a guy who can hit .300 with good power and gets on base is especially valuable. I think if you take away Kershaw and replace him with an average pitcher, then Zack Greinke’s the ace (of a staff with Hyun-jin Ryu, Josh Beckett, and Dan Haren) and the Dodgers are still okay.  Maybe they don't win the division, but they're still a playoff team. Remove Yasiel Puig from LA's lineup, however, and I’m not convinced they score enough runs to make their pitching stand up, not with injuries to Carl Crawford and Hanley Ramirez and poor seasons from A.J. Ellis, Andre Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez, and Matt Kemp (who's only been good recently).

So this is a long-winder, roundabout way of saying that the best remaining MVP candidate is Puig, who’s having a Mike Trout-lite season, so to speak. His .316/.400/.540 batting line is huge, especially for someone who plays half his games in Dodger Stadium (which is reflected by his 165 OPS+). With 4.0 bWAR, Puig has been his team's best position player by far, propping up a star-studded lineup that's under-performed its talent level. And while he doesn't lead the league in anything, he's in the top 10 for almost everything and should only climb higher with Tulo and 'Cutch on the mend.

Puig would boost his chances significantly by making up the distance between him and those two. Time is on his side and ripe for him to raise his stock. But he must keep hitting. He needs to rediscover the power stroke that has all but abandoned him since late May (two homers and 16 RBI in his last 56 games). He has to finish strong.

Because if he doesn't, then it's going to be that much easier to choose Kershaw.

What's Behind Brantley's Breakout?

An All-Star for the first time this year, Brantley's having an MVP caliber season

Is Michael Brantley baseball’s best kept secret? If he played on a better team in a bigger market, wouldn't we be talking about him the way we talk about Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Adam Jones, and Yasiel Puig?

I think so. Don't believe me? Go ahead. Check the numbers. They're closer than you think. Seriously, see for yourself. I'll wait. 

Over the first five years of his career, Brantley was pretty much the definition of an average everyday outfielder. With an OPS+ of 100, his bat was perfectly pedestrian. He hit for a little bit of power and flashed a little bit of speed, got on base at a solid rate and played decent defense, too. He didn’t really have any holes in his game, but at the same time failed to stand out. He was productive, capable, solid, but boring. Nothing special.

Not this year. Brantley, a beast all season long and first-time All-Star, is playing like an MVP. That's been even more true lately, as he's recorded five straight multi-hit games and seven in his past nine. With his batting line now up to .324/.383/.515 on the season, Brantley can say there's nobody in the American league who beats him in all three triple slash categories. In fact, there's only one player in baseball who can beg to differ, and it's Troy Tulowitzki. Only three players have provided more offensive value than Brantley, and their names are Trout, McCutchen, and Puig, all serious MVP candidates. Brantley deserves to be, too.

Because in his age-27 season, Brantley's taken a quantum leap from average hitter to one of the best in baseball, enjoying an unexpected breakout in the same vein as Melky Cabrera and Daniel Nava. His 154 wRC+ ties him with Jose Bautista for tenth-highest in baseball, better than Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, and Ryan Braun. With roughly one-third of the season still to go, B-R has already valued Brantley's performance at almost five wins above replacement. Per FanGraphs, Brantley has been baseball's ninth-most valuable position player this year, including the third-best outfielder in the American League to only Trout and Alex Gordon (and most of Gordon’s value comes from his defense, at which Brantley is merely okay).

So what’s fueling Brantley’s big, out-of-nowhere season? Surprisingly not BABiP, which at .325 is almost dead even with his actual average of .324. Considering Brantley’s career BABiP is .308, one can't merely chalk his success up to good luck. What's driving his robust batting average is the highest line drive rate of his career at nearly 27 percent. When more than one in four of your batted balls are frozen ropes, chances are you're doing something right.

As for the power surge, well, that's easy to explain. Brantley's boasting the highest HR/FB rate of his career by far. At 14.7 percent, it’s more than double last year’s 6.8 percent and his 6.7 percent career rate. That explains why he already has 16 home runs--on pace for 24--after never hitting more than 10 in a season before. In turn his ISO, which hovered in the .110-.120 range the past three years, has jumped up close to .200. 

He’s also being pitched to a little differently. Whether that's because of his newfound success or vice-versa is up for debate, but this isn't: after struggling mightily against fastballs last year, Brantley's been well above average against the heater this year (two and four-seamers). On a similar note he’s also enjoyed much more success against the cutter, a pitch that tends to give lefty hitters such as Brantley trouble by exploding in on their hands when thrown from a righthander. Pitchers appear to be taking notice, as they’ve given him fewer fastballs this year and more changeups, perhaps trying to catch Brantley off guard or get him out in front. But Brantley’s always been a good hitter against changeups, and that has remained true this year. 

On top of all that, Brantley's been much better on the basepaths as well. With 13 stolen bases in 14 attempts, he's been almost impossible to throw out. That represents a big step up over just two years ago, when he was nabbed nearly as many times (9) as he was successful (12). FanGraphs estimates he's provided more baserunning value than all but 14 major leaguers this year. Among players who have been less valuable than Brantley on the bases; Carlos Gomez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Trout.

Offensively, Brantley's playing at his absolute best right now. His walks are up from last year and his strikeouts are down, so much so that the rates are almost dead even. He's hitting for power and getting on base a ton, and when he does get on base he makes a positive difference with his legs.  The only area in which he hasn't improved is defense, where he's average at best and subpar at worst. At this point in his career Brantley's probably never going to be a great defensive outfielder, as he already plays a corner spot and can be expected to cover less ground with each passing year. 

But as long as he keeps hitting the way he is,  then that's something the Indians can live with. 

Giants Great Again

With a 2.71 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 4.05 K/BB ratio, Hudson has thrived (ESPN) 

Has any baseball team been more up and down than San Francisco recently?

Consider that they lost 90 games in 2008, on the heels of a 91-loss season and two losing seasons before that. They promptly rebounded to win 88 games in 2009, coming within four wins of a playoff berth. Their rise continued in 2010 to 92 regular season wins, a division title and their first World Series championship since 1954.

In 2011, with a lineup crippled by injuries and underperformance, they were essentially a .500 team, allowing seven more runs than they scored. The Giants' depleted offense was the worst in the National League, but on the strength of their great pitching managed to scratch out 86 wins.

In 2012 they found enough hitting to score 148 more runs, enough to win 94 games and the division again. A second World Series title in three years followed shortly thereafter.

Despite returning mostly the same team in 2013, San Francisco was terrible, slipping 10 games below .500 and finishing 16 games behind the division-winning Dodgers The offense regressed and the rotation collapsed, as Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Vogelsong, and Barry Zito all turned in subpar seasons (basically every starting pitcher not named Madison Bumgarner).

So here's a team that lost 90 games in 2008, then won a pair of World Series sandwiched around a mediocre season, then flat-out stunk. When they're good, they're great and when they're bad, they're awful.

This year, the Giants have been great again. After last night's 9-0 rout of the Mets they improved to 60-51 on the year, 2.5 games out of first and good enough for the top wild card spot.

What's changed from last year? Better hitting, for starters. The Giants rank in the middle of the pack offensively, a step up from last year, especially in the power department. The lineup is deep, with every regular posting an above average OPS+ except for second baseman Brandon Hicks, who's been a terrible fill-in for the injured Marco Scutaro, and center fielder Gregor Blanco, who's been a terrible replacement for the injured Angel Pagan. This in spite of a disappointing first half from Buster Posey and aforementioned injuries to Scutaro, Pagan, and Brandon Belt. The addition of Mike Morse has proven to be huge, as he's tied for the team-lead in home runs and leads outright in doubles.

The timeless Tim Hudson has had an equally large impact, emerging as the team's top pitcher. An enormous upgrade over Zito, he's helped slash the rotation's ERA by two-thirds of a run. Bumgarner's been predictably excellent, Vogelsong's been much better than he was last year, and Lincecum's had moments of greatness, such as his second career no-hitter. With Cain done for the season, GM Brian Sabean fortified the rotation by adding Jake Peavy before the no-waiver trading deadline. Peavy's had a rough year, but for a fifth starter you could do worse.

A weakness last year, the bullpen has been a strength this year. Five of San Francisco's six-most used relievers have ERAs under 2.75. Santiago Casilla (1.13 ERA, 0.85 WHIP) has been lights out after replacing Sergio Romo as the team's closer. The 'pen's 2.59 ERA to date is just ridiculous and a near three-quarters of a run improvement upon last year's 3.30 ERA.

So while the offense has improved incrementally, from 3.84 runs per game last year to 3.9 in 2014, the real difference has been made on the mound, where an improved rotation and dominant bullpen have combined to produce the league's third-lowest ERA. Last year, San Francisco had the fourth-worst ERA in the Senior Circuit. You can get away with a mediocre lineup when you have great pitching, and vice versa (see: last year's Red Sox), but if you don't, you can't. Because if you can't hit, you better damn well be able to keep runs off the board.

The Giants have done that, proving, as they always do, it's possible to field a great team with a pedestrian lineup. As long as you have great pitching.

Ortiz On Fire

The Red Sox are slumping again, having lost two of three to the Yankees over the weekend and 10 of their last 12, ruthlessly obliterating whatever momentum they seemingly had immediately following the All-Star Break. One of the few Bostonians who's not is David Ortiz, who boldly proclaimed before the start of the second half that was "about to get hotter than Jamaica in the middle of August."

I've never been to Jamaica, but apparently that's pretty hot.

Ortiz, who showed signs of breaking out prior to the All-Star Break, has caught fire over the past two weeks. Counting last night's three-run bomb off the Yankees' Chase Whitley, Papi's socked six homers and knocked in 18 runs over his last 12 games, during which time he's slugged .744. He passed Carl Yastrzemski on the home run list, Mickey Mantle on the RBI list, and gave us this wicked cool bat flip. Ortiz is now up to 26 homers and 82 RBI on the season, comfortably on pace to blow away last year’s totals of 30 and 103 (health permitting, of course) with 51 games still to play. He's projected to finish with 38 and 120, numbers he hasn't reached since 2006.

Though his OPS is down more than 100 points from last year, Ortiz is still the most dangerous bat in Boston's lineup by far. He's tops in slugging, OPS, and total bases. He has twice as many big flies as their number two slugger/cleanup hitter Mike Napoli and nearly twice as many ribbies as the team's second-best RBI man Dustin Pedroia. With so little help around him, it's no wonder Ortiz has been intentionally walked more than anyone else in baseball. 

That says a lot about the lack of protection for Ortiz in the Red Sox lineup. What says even more is that of the 131 times he's reached base this year (excluding his 26 home runs), the people behind him have driven him in only 17 times. That means 87 percent of the time Ortiz has gotten on base, he's been stranded there. Ortiz is slow, but c'mon. 

I guess what I'm trying to say is that it's really impressive Ortiz has stayed hot for so long. If I'm a pitcher, I'm not giving Papi anything to hit unless I absolutely have to (and if I do, it's pitching to the shift by busting him inside). Give him the Barry Bonds treatment. Give him first base and make the other Red Sox beat you, because they've proven time and time again this year that they're incapable of doing that. 

On second thought, I guess that means it doesn't hurt to surrender the occasional long ball to Ortiz, either.