Kluber Robs King Felix

Hernandez deserved to win his second Cy Young, but didn't (RotoScout)

The races for the American League and National League Cy Young couldn't have been any different.

In the National League, Clayton Kershaw was the heavy favorite and won easily, securing his third Cy Young in four years (and, let's be honest, he deserved the 2012 award over R.A. Dickey too). It was Kershaw and everyone else, meaning a vote for Johnny Cueto or Adam Wainwright, while defensible, was clearly misguided.

The American League's top two candidates were virtually inseparable. They both had dominant seasons and compelling reasons, but in the end it came down to splitting hairs. In what was destined to be a photo finish, Corey Kluber beat out Felix Hernandez. Kluber nabbed 17 of the 30 first place votes and 169 points, edging out the 13 and 159 compiled by King Felix. Chris Sale finished a distant third with 78 points.

Looking at Hernandez's stats, it's hard to see how he didn't win. He had the league's lowest ERA, WHIP, and hit rate while placing second in pitcher bWAR (to Kluber), innings pitched (to David Price), ERA+ (to Sale), and FIP (to Kluber). He also led in most of the advanced stats like adjusted pitching runs and wins, base-out runs and wins saved, and situational wins saved. Opponents batted just .200/.243/.303 (.244 wOBA) against him, and his average GameScore was 65. For most of the summer, he was the clear favorite as he strung together an MLB-record 16 straight starts with at least seven innings pitched and two earned runs allowed or fewer.

But he slipped just a bit over the final six weeks (2.75 ERA), opening the door for Kluber, who came on like a freight train down the stretch. His first half was hardly Cy-worthy (3.01 ERA), but after the All-Star Break he had a 1.73 ERA over his final 104 innings to lower his final ERA to 2.44. He also struck out 39 batters over his final three starts to give him a whopping 269 K's on the season, second only to Price and 21 more than Hernandez. He also finished in a three-way tie for the league lead in wins with 18 (same as Max Scherzer and Jered Weaver) while pacing the circuit in pitching bWAR (7.4), and FIP (2.35).

While Kluber had an outstanding season, I believe the hardware belongs to King Felix. For one, Kluber wasn't even Cy Young-caliber for most of the first half, while Hernandez was Cy Young worthy from start to finish. Kluber had that great finishing kick, but I think Hernandez deserves credit for being more consistent. Additionally Kluber's average GameScore (63) was a hair lower than Hernandez's, revealing that he was slightly less dominant on a per-start basis. Batters also had more success against him, hitting .233/.279/.345 (.277 wOBA) when he was on the bump--a 78 point difference between him and Hernandez. That's pretty sizable, especially considering Kluber faced slightly weaker hitting talent.

It's true that Hernandez did pitch in a more favorable environment with a better defense behind him, but the park is accounted for in Adjusted ERA+, which has him considerably ahead of Kluber 170 to 152. Furthermore, Safeco doesn't help Hernandez as much as other pitchers because of his ability to induce ground balls. As for the defense, well, it's not like Hernandez was pitching to contact. He still struck out 248 batter's, for heaven's sake! Tony Blengino over at FanGraphs took all these factors into account and calculated Hernandez's true ERA to be 2.29, a touch better than Kluber's 2.45.

All in all, I like Hernandez's case a little better than Kluber's. I'm not sure what swayed the voters over to the latter's side: I hope it was the FIP and gaudy strikeout rates but I suspect the monster second half and shinier win total played a role as well. The voters had to make a really tough choice, so I'm not surprised they got it wrong (look no further than their inability to elect Mike Trout MVP before this year). Kluber was great, but Hernandez was a tad better and deserved to win by the slimmest of margins.

MLB Hot Stove winners

After examing the offseason's five biggest losers yesterday, today I take a look at five teams that won the winter.

Atlanta Braves
The Braves brought in some much-needed righthanded pop in the form of the Upton brothers, who will team with Jason Heyward to form the National League's most exciting outfield. Though they failed to acquire a strong replacement for Chipper Jones (Chris Johnson is replacement level at best) and lack catching depth behind Brian McCann (Gerald Laird? pass), the Braves are primed for another playoff run in 2013.

Boston Red Sox
Boston began the offseason by firing Bobby Valentine, the man responsible for so much of the controversy and dysfunction that plagued the Red Sox last season. Ben Cherington found a good replacement in John Farrell, a former Red Sox pitching coach whom many members of the team (Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Dustin Pedroia) respect. He satisfied David Ortiz with a contract extension, then went about reshaping the roster with cheap, productive character guys. Cherington signed Mike Napoli to replace Adrian Gonzalez, Shane Victorino to man right field (then slide over to center when/if Jacoby Ellsbury leaves) and Ryan Dempster to fill Josh Beckett's void in the rotation. He also added David Ross to complement Jarrod Saltalamacchia behind the plate, imported lefty-masher Jonny Gomes and traded for All-Star closer Joel Hanrahan, thus relegating Andrew Bailey to eighth inning duties. The Sox needed a new shortstop after trading Mike Aviles and found a decent one in Stephen Drew, younger brother of J.D. Drew, who played the last five years of his career in Boston and collected $70 million for his services.  All winter long Cherington preached patience and discipline, and the mantra seems to have paid off. There's no question the Red Sox will be a better team in 2013--the only question is will they be good enough to reach the postseason for the first time in four years?

Cleveland Indians
The Tribe lost 94 games last year but got significantly better this winter. They upgraded their outfield outfield by signing Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, signed slugging corner infielder Mark Reynolds to a cheap one-year deal and traded for Trevor Bauer, who projects to be a future ace. With veteran skipper Terry Francona at the helm, Cleveland now has one of the best managers of the past decade at the reins. The Indians aren't talented enough to surpass the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central but have the pieces to move above .500 for the first time since 2007.

Seattle Mariners
Besides locking up their staff ace/face of the franchise for the rest of the decade, the M's brought in plenty of offensive firepower in the way of Michael Morse, Jason Bay, Kendrys Morales, Raul Ibanez, and Kelly Shoppach, all of whom will be the first Mariners to benefit from Safeco Field's closer fences. The starting rotation could use more depth, but King Felix is an ideal hurler to build around. The Mariners will have their hands full with the Rangers, Angels, and A's this year, but they could be sneaky-good and post a winning record in baseball's toughest division.

Toronto Blue Jays
The Jaybirds look like World Series favorites (on paper, at least) after completing two blockbuster trades to bring in Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, and reigning NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey. Not to mention, Melky Cabrera could turn out to be a massive steal for a two-year, $16 million commitment.

King Felix Collects

It must feel pretty good being king.

Felix Hernandez is getting a five-year contract extension worth $135.5 million on top of the two years/$39.5 million remaining on his current deal. The extension makes him the highest paid pitcher by yearly salary, surpassing Zack Greinke--who held the title for all of two months--and falls in line with recent deals handed out to David Wright, Cole Hamels, and Josh Hamilton.

Handing out nine-figure contracts to starting pitchers is always risky, but locking up the 2010 AL Cy Young winner for the rest of the decade should prove to be a sound investment for the Mariners. When he's on, Hernandez is one of the best pitchers in the game today, every bit as good as Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw. Look no further than his perfect game last summer, the 23rd in major league history, as proof of what he's capable of every time he takes the mound.

The three-time All-Star is also one of the most durable starters around. Nobody's thrown more innings over the past four years. In that same span he has the second best ERA (behind Kershaw) and third most strikeouts (behind Verlander and Tim Lincecum). Better yet, the soon-to-be-27-year-old is in the heart of his prime and should have several more elite seasons ahead of him.

In related news, Hernandez decided to sit out this year's World Baseball Classic and will not pitch for Venezuela in the international tournament.