Adrian Beltre's Weird Career

Beltre salutes Rangers fans after doubling for his 3,000th hit (New York Times)

Adrian Beltre has had a weird career. A great career, to be sure, one that will ultimately see him enshrined in Cooperstown, but a weird one nevertheless. In his 20s it was full of ups and downs before he settled into one of baseball's best and most consistent players in his 30s. It goes without saying that this is not a normal aging curve.

Let's start at the beginning. Did you know the Dodgers broke MLB rules to sign Beltre out of the Dominican Republic when he was 15? It's true. Less than four years later he was up in the big leagues, struggling to bat his weight during the summer of Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa.

It didn't take long for Beltre to adjust, however, and the following year saw him bat .275/.352/.428 (102 OPS+) with 15 homers while ranking as one of the league's best defensive third basemen. His 18 steals and 61 walks from that season remain career highs. In 2000 he was even batter, hitting .290/.360/.475 (114 OPS+) with 20 homers and 12 steals. Still several years away from his physical prime, he appeared to be a superstar in the making.

Then he was derailed by an appendectomy, of all things, which kept him out of the lineup until mid-May and caused his OPS to tumble more than 100 points in 2001. His defense cratered as well, as he was below average in the field for the first and only time in his career. While his power and glovework bounced back in 2002-'03, his patience never did, and his average continue to fall along with his BABIP, which bottomed out at .253 in 2003. With his early flashes of stardom receding in the rearview, he seemed to be settling into a solid but unspectacular third baseman.

Then came 2004, the year Beltre finally put everything together. He more than doubled his home run output from the previous season to lead the Majors with 48. His average soared to .334 as he trimmed his strikeout rate from 16.9 percent to 13.2 percent, and his walk rate rebounded as well. He was worth 9.5 bWAR and, in an alternate universe where Barry Bonds doesn't become a freak of nature, he wins the MVP over Albert Pujols in a photo finish. Instead he finishes second, unable to overcome Bonds' record-setting .609 OBP, which is just 20 points lower than Beltre's slugging percentage in '04.

A free agent heading into his age-26 season, Beltre has timed his monster season perfectly. He is going to get paid, and it is the Mariners who land him. He signs for five years and $64 million, giving him another crack at free agency when he's 30.

The next half-decade nearly ruins Beltre, who doesn't come close to replicating his 2004 season. He wins a pair of Gold Gloves but his bat regresses, stymied by Safeco Field and the cool, damp air currents of the Pacific Northwest. The strikeouts rise and the walks fall, reflecting a player pressing to prove he is worth the money and put a stop to the "overrated" jeers he hears on a nightly basis. Seattle slips into mediocrity, which only exacerbates the criticism. Beltre has duped the Mariners and their fans. He is not the player they thought they were getting, the slick-fielding home run champion who, for a season, rivaled Bonds and Alex Rodriguez as the best player in the game. He becomes a poster-boy for the walk-year phenomenon.

In 2009, Beltre's final season in Seattle, he becomes a punchline. After scuffling in the spring, his summer hot streak is interrupted when a grounder takes a bad hop and nails him in the groin. Beltre isn't wearing a cup and lands on the DL. He finishes the year with eight home runs and 44 RBIs, his lowest totals since his rookie year. Having reaped the rewards of free agency after his best season, he struggles to find a contract in the wake of his worst.

The Red Sox, knowing a good deal when they see one, scoop him up on a one-year deal. Free of Seattle's toxic environment and finally aided by his home park for the first time in his career, Beltre returns to form. He racks up 7.8 bWAR and makes his first All-Star team, batting .321 with 28 homers, 102 RBIs and an MLB-high 49 doubles (he's no Fenway fluke, either, hitting for a higher average and notching 30 of his doubles away from home). He is not flashy enough for the Sox, however, and they let him walk in free agency.

Since then Beltre's been with Texas, where he's turned his Hall of Fame chances from unlikely to a first-ballot lock. He's become a steady .300 hitter while posting four of the five highest home run totals of his career, taking advantage of Arlington's homer-friendly environment. He's also continued to showcase his excellent defense at third, adding three Gold Gloves to his trophy case. After years of underrating him, the press finally caught on to his greatness and have rewarded him with five top-10 MVP finishes this decade, during which he's been baseball's third-most valuable position player behind Mike Trout and Joey Votto.

Now 38, Beltre has shown no signs of slowing down. He's still batting close to .300 with power and playing a mean third base. He looks like the next version of David Ortiz, a player who will leave on his own terms rather than being forced into retirement by diminishing skills. With several milestones such as 500 home runs and 700 doubles potentially in reach, he may want to stick around a few more years after his contract expires next season. He still hasn't won a World Series, either, which has to be a motivating factor after coming oh-so close in 2011.

Whenever he decides to retire, though, we'll look back on his career as one of the most unusual ones we've ever seen.

How Ian Desmond's Slump Cost Him $100 Million

Desmond didn't get the payday he deserved (Scout.com)

Ian Desmond has to be kicking himself. Two years ago, he passed on a seven-year, $107 million contract extension, thinking he could make more in free agency. Well, after spending the whole winter in free agent purgatory, he was forced to settle for a one-year deal that will pay him a mere $8 million. Ouch.

How did Desmond fall so far, so fast? How did his value, once sky-high, hit rock bottom? How did he go from almost becoming one of baseball's richest players to accepting a contract worth half of the qualifying offer he turned down?

Desmond didn't get hurt, as he played 154 games in 2014 and 156 last year. He didn't stop stealing bases or hitting home runs. He didn't get in trouble off the field.

No, what happened to Desmond is what happened to Evan Longoria, Pablo Sandoval, and countless other players as they approach 30; he declined.

Between 2013 and 2015, Desmond's OPS dropped 110 points, turning him from a solidly above average hitter into an offensive liability. His strikeouts shot up, his power waned, and his defense started slipping. The bottom fell out in 2015, as Desmond batted a dismal .233/.290/.384 (83 wRC+) with a whopping 187 strikeouts and 27 fielding errors. Through the All-Star break, he was arguably the worst everyday player in baseball.

Desmond rebounded with a strong second half, but that robust finish wasn't enough to salvage his walk year, much less his reputation as one of the game's elite. Everyone seemed to forget that over the last four years, Desmond was the best shortstop in baseball.

But when he became available, nobody wanted him, even though he was still better than half the shortstops in baseball last year (and thus would have been an upgrade for all but a handful of teams). Nobody wanted to shell out for a 30 year-old shortstop whose numbers had declined for three straight seasons, the last of which was perhaps the worst of his career. He was just too risky.

So in one of the strongest free agent classes in recent memory, Desmond became an afterthought. He got the Stephen Drew treatment. Days turned to weeks and weeks into months...and no one came calling. Spring Training got underway, and still nothing. The market for Desmond never materialized, and it soon became clear that the big contract he originally sought wasn't coming.

Just before Spring Training games were about to start, the Texas Rangers came forward with a terrible offer; one-year, $8 million, and Desmond would have to change positions to accommodate their incumbent shortstop, Elvis Andrus. Worse, he would have to split time with Josh Hamilton--who got the kind of fat contract Desmond was seeking (which the Angels immediately regretted)--when he returns. Desmond took it.

I don't know what's more humiliating--the terms of his contract or the fact that he's losing his position and at-bats to inferior players.

But does Desmond complain? Of course not. Being the stand-up guy that he is, he's been all smiles since joining the Rangers. After sweating it out for four months, he's just happy to have a contract.

Now he has to go play for his next one.

Desmond didn't do much with the stick in 2015 (AndraleMaria.com)

Free agency, like the rest of baseball, is all timing. Hit the market after a huge year, like Hamilton did, and you can strike gold. Become a free agent following a down year, however, and you're more likely to strike out.

Desmond couldn't have picked a worse time to have the worst two months of his career. It wasn't even two whole months--more like seven weeks, actually. A span of 39 games--not even a quarter of a season. He was fine before that and even better afterwards, but from the end of May through the first series after the All-Star break, Desmond didn't hit at all.

When Desmond woke up in Cincinnati on the morning of May 30th, everything was awesome. He was on fire, having smoked two hits the night before and 19 in his past 13 games. His bat was coming around after a slow start, and his fielding had settled down after a case of early-season jitters. Washington was in first place, just like everyone said they'd be.

Then, his bat went into hibernation again. Desmond took an 0-for-4 that day, and the Nationals lost. He went 0-for-4 the next day, and Washington lost again. It was the beginning of a horrific slide for the free agent-to-be. In June, he had more games without hits than games with hits. He struck out in a third of his plate appearances, so it wasn't like he was just getting unlucky. He batted .161 with a .194 OBP.

Things only got worse in July. Through the month's first dozen games, he totaled three hits in 43 plate appearances. His batting line--already an unimpressive .250/.290/.399 at the end of May--plummeted to a ghastly .204/.248/.324 after his 0-for-3 on July 19th. Every time Desmond dug in, the batter's box became a pit of quicksand. The harder he tried to escape the throes of his slump, the more stuck he became. For Nationals fans, it was hard to believe they were watching the same guy who'd won the last three Silver Sluggers at shortstop.

Mercifully, Desmond pulled out of it, batting .272/.343/.464 the rest of the way and falling one long ball shy of his fourth straight 20-homer season. But he still finished with career lows in batting average and on-base percentage, set a career-high in whiffs and stole just 13 bases--his fewest for a full season. His power totals also declined, from 24 homers and 91 RBI in 2014 to 19 and 62 in 2015. After being worth close to four wins the year before, he was worth merely two. Desmond was no longer the best shortstop in baseball; he was damaged goods.

***

If I were a major league GM, especially one on a limited budget, I wouldn't even consider signing a free agent before February. All the guys that go early get grossly overpaid and rarely provide commensurate value (especially ones on the wrong side of 30). I'd rather wait until February, when things have died down and all the stars are long gone, then swoop in and sign a bunch of leftovers/mid-tier impact players for a fraction of the cost. You could have got two quality starting pitchers (Yovani Gallardo and Mat Latos), an everyday center fielder (Dexter Fowler) and a regular shortstop (Desmond)--for under $50 million total and with no future commitments beyond 2017 season. Zack Greinke alone is costing the Diamondbacks $34 million next year for the next six years.

If you're a bargain hunter, February is the time to strike. Just ask the Rangers

Latos is still the best deal of the offseason by far, but the Desmond deal isn't far behind. Texas got an incredible bargain for a guy who was considered one of the best players in baseball this time last year. He's a lot less risky than Hamilton, and he only has to be worth one win to earn his contract, which should be a breeze as long as he doesn't regress to his first-half numbers from last year.

Because while those numbers are semi-tolerable for a shortstop who can field, they're utterly unacceptable at any other position. In order for Desmond's bat to play in left field, his numbers must return to their 2012-2014 levels. A sub-.300 OBP with fewer than 20 homers just isn't going to cut it, especially for a team with its sights set on October.

Desmond should see his numbers improve in Texas, which is notoriously kind to hitters and a considerably better place to hit than Washington. Unfortunately he's never played there, so there's no sample size on which to make predictions. Most projections systems are expecting him to bat .250 with around 20 homers, which would make him quite the steal should it come to pass.

Usually when you have a two-time All-Star shortstop who's 27 and signed through the next seven years, you're not looking to add another shortstop via free agency. With Desmond, however, the price was too good to pass up.

MLB September Storylines

Dodger aces Greinke (L) and Kershaw are players to follow in September (ESPN)

Labor Day weekend is upon us (seriously, how did that happen?), which means there's but one month left of the regular season. Even with most of the divisions and playoff races already decided, several exciting stories have yet to be played out. Will the Blue Jays win their division, thus ending the longest postseason drought in American professional sports? Can Houston hang on in the AL West? And just who is going to put themselves over the top in various award races?

Even if your team is toast and you can't wait for football to start, there's still enough going on to keep fans engaged into October. Here's a sample:

1. David Ortiz's march to 500 home runs
It's been another tough year for the Red Sox but another great one for Ortiz, who's closing in on his 500th career long ball. He has five to go which, given his feverish home run pace (23 taters in his last 70 games), shouldn't take too long.

2. Clayton Kershaw's quest for 300 strikeouts
As Jeff Sullivan noted yesterday, Kershaw's up to 251 K's on the year after fanning 15 Giants in Wednesday night's masterpiece. With five or six starts remaining, he has a chance to become the first pitcher since 2002 to eclipse 300 punchouts. If he does that, a third straight Cy Young award may be in the cards.

3. AL East showdown
As always, the AL East has become a dogfight between its top two teams, one being the Yankees of course. For once, however, the other combatant isn't Boston. It's the Blue Jays, currently clinging to a 1.5 game lead over the Bombers. Toronto will get every opportunity to widen the gap down the stretch with the rest of its games coming against sub-.500 teams and New York.  The Yankees have a similarly easy slate, however, so it wouldn't be surprising to see first place change hands several times over the next month.

4. How will the West be Won?
The fate of the AL West is still up in the air, for it's the only division where the third place team isn't more than 10 games out. It has been turned completely upside down this year, with Houston and Texas (both losers of 90+ games last year) rising to the top while Oakland and Seattle (winners of 88 and 87, respectively) sinking to the bottom. In between are last year's division champs--the Angels--still trying to find their way. LA's coming off a terrible August but could catch up if they play like they did in July. Houston's had control of first place for most of the year, but now find themselves holding on for dear life with a two game edge over the surging Rangers. So hold your breath, Astros fans, and don't exhale until this time next month.

5. Who will snag the second AL wild card?
The Pirates and Cubs have both NL wild card spots wrapped up, and whoever loses the Yankees-Blue Jays duel is guaranteed the first wild card in the AL. The second wild card berth, however, is very much up for grabs. Texas currently leads by one game over Minnesota, with Los Angeles and Tampa Bay looming not far behind. The Twins and Angels are fading fast, while the Rangers have rolled since trading for Cole Hamels. Fingers crossed for a tie, which would mean a play-in game for the play-in game!

6. Will Washington pull it together?
It's now or never for the Nats, who've hovered around .500 all summer and allowed the Mets to break away. They're still close enough (six games) that Washington could steal the division out from under them with a huge September, but time is dwindling. Which team will the Nationals be this month: the one that everyone predicted to win 100 games or the one that might wind up with a losing record? I say they finish strong but still miss the playoffs.

7. St. Louis shoots for 100
Improved parity has made 100-win teams increasingly rare--there were none in each of the past three seasons. Only one team has a legitimate shot to do it this year, and it's not the preseason favorites. The best team in baseball this year has been the St. Louis Cardinals, currently 86-47 and steaming towards their third straight division title. With 29 games remaining on their schedule, the Redbirds need only go .500 to reach the century mark.

8. Does anyone get to 50 homers?
There have been just two instances of a player surpassing 50 home runs during the past seven seasons, but it's possible we'll see two or more players crack that many this year. Nelson Cruz--last year's long ball champion and the current major league leader--needs 11 to get there while Chris Davis--the last to break the 50 barrier--is a dozen away. Look for Carlos Gonzalez, who's cranked 31 over the last three months, to make a run as well.

9. Award races
The AL MVP was seemingly Mike Trout's to lose until about a month ago, at which point he and his Angels went in the toilet while Josh Donaldson and the Blue Jays took off. Now Donaldson appears to have the upper hand, but that could change in an instant if Trout gets back to being himself and leads LA to the playoffs. The NL MVP belongs to Bryce Harper no matter how often Joey Votto reaches base, but Zack Greinke could become the second straight Dodger pitcher to win it if he continues to be lights-out in September.

Speaking of Greinke, he and Kershaw will duke it out for the NL Cy Young award. Wonder which Dodger (and former Cy) voters prefer; Greinke with his sparkling ERA or Kershaw and his gaudy strikeout totals and only slightly less-sparkling ERA? The AL trophy is probably going to Dallas Keuchel (who saw that one coming?), but don't count Chris Sale out just yet.

The AL Rookie of the Year race is a tight one too, with Carlos Correa, Miguel Sano, and Andrew Heaney all having strong cases. The NL field is a two-horse race between Joc Pederson and Kris Bryant, though Noah Syndergaard deserves consideration as well.

10. September call-ups
No matter where your team falls in the standings, it's worth checking in on them throughout September as their future stars get a first taste of the big leagues. For instance, Corey Seager made his major league debut last night.

Beltre Breaks Out, Cycles Again

Beltre's bat seems to be coming around (SI)

Adrian Beltre turned back the clock last night, notching the third cycle of his illustrious career to help the Texas Rangers outslug the Houston Astros 12-9. Interestingly enough, all three of Beltre's cycles have come at Globe Life Park in Arlington--home of the Texas Rangers. His first cycle was as a visitor with the Seattle Mariners in 2008, while the second occurred in 2012--his second season with the Rangers.

Now 36 and in his 18th season, Beltre has shown signs of slipping this year. While he's continued to provide his usual stellar defense at the hot corner, he entered last night's game batting just .262/.305/.394--his lowest figures since his injury-plagued 2009. From 2010 to 2014 Beltre was among the best hitters in the game, but this year he's finally started to show his age. His power is down for the fourth straight year, though that might have something to do with the sprained left thumb that cost him three weeks in June. With his body breaking down and skills eroding, Beltre, like most athletes in their 30s, simply isn't the player he once was.

But for one night, at least, he was. The life returned to his bat, enabling him to Beltre wasted no time getting going, keying the Rangers' six-run first with a go-ahead, two-run triple into the left-centerfield gap. He doubled his next time up the very next inning, then followed that up with a single in the third. Facing Mike Fiers in the fifth, he proceeded to rip a laser over the left field wall, completing the cycle before the game was even half over.

Beltre's is the second cycle by a Ranger in less than two weeks, as teammate Shin-Soo Choo turned the trick at Coors Field back on July 21st. Beltre's cycle was special, however, for being the third of his career, which ties a major league record shared by John Reilly, Bob Meusel, and Babe Herman. All of them retired before Jackie Robinson broke the color line, making Beltre the first player with three cycles since baseball was integrated--a fitting accomplishment considering his Dominican heritage.

The Rangers, who are just two games behind the Twins for the second wild card, are hoping there's more where that came from. Beltre had already shown signs of breaking out prior to last night's display, going 3-for-4 with a home run on Friday and notching two more hits on Saturday. With a dozen hits--five for extra bases--in his past half dozen games, Beltre's bat appears to be coming around. A strong second half from him would go a long way towards keeping the Rangers' playoff hopes alive, not to mention prove he still has something left in the tank.

The Rangers and their fans can only hope that last night's game was a sign of things to come rather than a reminder of the beast Beltre used to be.

Hamilton Headed Back to Texas

Hamilton's brief but costly tenure with the Angels is over (Rant Sports)

On December 15th, 2012, the Los Angeles Angels signed Josh Hamilton to a five-year, $125 million deal. Two and a half years later, they traded him away for essentially nothing--either a player to be named later or a fraction of the $80 million he's still owed.

There have been a lot of ugly contracts handed out in recent years, but Hamilton's might trump them all. Depending on how much the Rangers pay, which is believed to be anywhere from $6-8 million to $15 million, the Angels are on the hook for at least $110 million for a season and a half of mediocre production. Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs agree Hamilton produced about three wins above replacement in 2013-2014 combined, meaning he cost the Angels around $35 million per win--five to six times what a win is supposed to cost on the open market.

The Angels bought high on Hamilton, who was coming off five straight All-Star appearances and a big 43-homer season. His first year in LA was a massive disappointment, as his OPS fell nearly 200 points and he hit half as many home runs in the same number of plate appearances. The Angels also flopped, going 78-84 after winning 89 games the year before.

Hamilton's second go-round with the Angels wasn't much better, as he played all of eight games before landing on the disabled list with a thumb injury, which he sustained while doing what everyone knows is one of the riskiest and least rewarding plays in baseball--diving headfirst into first base. The daring play cost him two months and much of his power, for he slugged just .386 after returning to action in early June. He missed most of September with shoulder soreness and was a bust in the playoffs, going hitless in 13 at-bats as the Angels were swept in the ALDS.

Hurt again, Hamilton is currently recovering from shoulder surgery. He also relapsed recently, which proved to be the straw that broke the camel's (more specifically, Arte Moreno's) back. The Angels owner had had enough of Hamilton, who was costing him truckloads of money and giving him next to nothing in return.

That Hamilton's career soured so quickly was hardly surprising, though it was something of a worst-case scenario. He has been undone by all the flaws that made this pact so risky in the first place. His high strikeout rate in 2012 proved to be the new normal, as he followed up that year's 25.5 percent whiff rate with a 24.8 percent mark in 2013 and 28.3 percent mark last year. His injury woes followed him, limiting him to just 89 games last year and shelving him for the start of 2015.

He was also hurt by the move away from Texas, putting up a .690 home OPS in 2013 and a .616 home OPS in 2014. Age has certainly been a factor as well, as Hamilton's decline is on par with what most athletes experience in  their early 30s. Lastly, he was unable to shake the personal issues that have plagued him his entire career, ultimately preventing him from realizing his full potential.

In light of all this, one can understand why the Angels were so eager to cut bait and move on. They realized Hamilton was a sunk cost and not worth the headaches. Obviously they feel they will be better off without him, even if that means paying most of his contract for him to go away.

As for the Rangers, they can't be any worse with him. They are currently last in the AL West and are getting nothing offensively from their outfielders. Hamilton had his best years in Texas, so it's worth finding out if he can recapture some of his former glory with his old team. Hopefully he does Alex Rodriguez-style, because when he's right he's one of the most electrifying talents in the game. If he doesn't, the cost to the Rangers is entirely inconsequential. They can't lose.

The Angels, meanwhile, will continue to lose money on Hamilton for three more years. All they can do is hope he doesn't return to form with their division rivals and take advantage of all those opportunities he'll get to punish the team still signing his checks.

Rangers Get Gallardo

Gallardo's not good enough to survive the Texas run environment (Bases Loaded)

The Texas Rangers made their first major offseason move yesterday (seriously, it's about time), sending three players to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for Yovani Gallardo. The Brewers also agreed to cover $4 million of the $14 million owed to Gallardo in 2015, the final year of a five-year extension he signed back in 2010.

Gallardo, a former All-Star, has been one of the steadiest starting pitchers in baseball over the past six years. Though walks have often limited his ability to pitch deep into games, he's made at least 30 starts and completed more than 180 innings every year dating back to 2009. Gallardo's compiled a 3.73 ERA (equivalent to his FIP) during that span, putting him in the same neighborhood as Max Scherzer (3.61), James Shields (3.62), and Dan Haren (3.80).

A very promising pitcher at the start of the decade, the hard-throwing righthander never quite became the ace he was supposed to be. He settled down as a good, if occasionally frustrating pitcher; a fine number two or three but not a number one. With 16 fWAR over the last six years, he's been the 31st most valuable starting pitcher in baseball, near the likes of Matt Cain, Ricky Nolasco, and Jake Peavy.

Gallardo, who's going to be 29 this year, will have to adjust to the American League as well as an incredibly tough park for pitchers in Texas. Such a transition would be difficult for any hurler, especially one whose strikeout rate has gone into free-fall. Since peaking at 9.9 K/9 in 2009, Gallardo's whiff rate has fallen every year since then save 2012, when it remained the same as the year before. Once an elite strikeout artist who fanned at least a batter per inning every year from 2009 through 2012, Gallardo is now below average in that department after making a more concerted effort to pitch to contact, which has resulted in his averaging just seven whiffs per nine in 2013 and 2014 combined.

In spite of his waning whiff rate, Gallardo has remained effective by become more of a ground ball pitcher in recent years, as his ground ball rate has steadily risen every year since 2010 (he added a sinker to his repertoire in 2011). Last year, for the first time in his career, more than half of the batted balls he generated were on the ground. That bodes well for him moving to Texas and a new home park that turns long fly balls into homers. He'll benefit from a superior infield defense with the Rangers, who boast Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus on the left side of their infield as opposed to Aramis Ramirez and Jean Segura in Milwaukee, but will lose out on Jonathan Lucroy's magnificent pitch-framing capability.

So how will Gallardo fare in his American League debut? Not great, says Steamer. The projection system predicts continued regression in his strikeout rate and an uptick in his walk rate, which was a career-best 2.5 BB/9 last year. These developments, combined with a spike in home run rate, would likely drive his ERA and FIP over four. Steamer expects his ERA to rise to 4.61, more than a full run worse than his 3.51 mark a year ago. That seems a bit excessive to me, but I agree that his ERA is going to exceed his previous career-worst of 4.18 set two years ago.

Gallardo's just not a great pitcher any more, which makes him vulnerable to the hitter's park in Arlington and more formidable American League lineups. He's an average pitcher at best in this stage of his career, which qualifies as an improvement only because of how horrendous the Rangers' rotation was last year. Of the nine pitchers who started eight or more games, only one--Yu Darvish--had an ERA under 4.35. Texas desperately needed pitching help, and Gallardo will provide some, but his ERA probably won't be much better than that and is far more likely to be worse.

As such, Gallardo is a minor upgrade that won't make much difference for a team that lost 95 games last year. Obviously the Rangers need all the help they can get, and every little bit helps, but Gallardo's not going to move the needle much. The Rangers really need another ace to complement Darvish, and could have used a Jon Lester or a James Shields. Instead, they settled for mediocrity and got Gallardo.

Soriano Says Good-bye

Soriano had a stellar 16-year career (Rumors and Rants)

As of yesterday, Alfonso Soriano is officially all done with baseball.

The end came quickly for Soriano, as it often does for whiffing machines in their late 30s. After exceeding 30 home runs and 100 RBI in both 2012 and 2013, Soriano fell apart at age 38 in 2014. Soriano batted a meager .221/.244/.367 with six home runs and 23 RBI in 67 games, snapping his streak of 13 consecutive seasons with at least 18 home run and earning a DFA from the Yankees in early July, followed by an outright release. New York cut him loose little more than a year after trading for him to ail their sinking offense, which he did with 17 homers and 50 RBI in just 58 games.

It was a grand return for Soriano, who began his professional career with the Yankees when they purchased him from Japan in 1998. One year later he made his debut, though his role was limited to a cameo on the championship teams of 1999 and 2000. In 2001 he inherited the everyday second baseman's job from the error-prone Chuck Knoblauch, only to become an error-prone second baseman himself. But like Knoblauch, Soriano could hit, and that more than compensated for his adventures in the field.

Following a third place-finish in the AL Rookie of the Year race in 2001, Soriano emerged as a star in 2002, earning his first All-Star nod, Silver Slugger award, and finishing third in the MVP race behind a pair of slugging shortstops: Miguel Tejada and Alex Rodriguez. Batting leadoff in Joe Torre's lineup ahead of Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, and Hideki Matsui, Soriano led the major leagues with 128 runs, 209 hits, and stole a league-high 41 bases. With 39 home runs he narrowly missed a 40/40 campaign, especially since he hit his 39th with two weeks left in the season. He also batted an even .300 with 51 doubles and 381 total bases, making his 2002 one of the finest offensive seasons ever by a second baseman.

His 2003 was nearly as good (more valuable according to bWAR, actually), as he was again an All-Star, scored well over 100 runs (114), and went 30/30 with 38 bombs and 35 thefts (caught just eight times). He also piled up 358 total bases and knocked in 91 runs while cutting down on his strikeouts and improving his walk rate. Soriano seemed destined to wind up as one of the all-time great Yankee second basemen, in the same league as Joe Gordon and Willie Randolph.

Only fate intervened. Aaron Boone shredded his knee playing pickup basketball, leaving New York in need of a third baseman. Brian Cashman asked if Alex Rodriguez, who was nearly traded earlier in the 2003-2004 offseason to Boston, was still for sale. He was, and became a Yankee after New York sent Soriano and a player to be named later (Joaquin Arias) to Texas for A-Rod and cash.

Soriano played for four teams but started and ended his career in pinstripes (SBNation)

Soriano continued to produce big numbers for two years in the Texas heat before he was traded to the Washington Nationals, where he enjoyed the finest season of his career in 2006. Moved to left field, he responded with just the fourth 40/40 season in baseball history, joining Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds, and Alex Rodriguez. He also posted a career high .911 OPS en route to 6.1 bWAR and a sixth place finish in the NL MVP race.

That monster season, which included 362 total bases, couldn't have come at a better time for Soriano, who was in his walk year. He capitalized by signing an outlandish eight-year, $136 million contract with the Chicago Cubs which was doomed from the start, as he was about to begin his age 31 season when the ink dried.

Sure enough, Soriano's numbers slid as he aged and struggled with injuries, as he missed significant time in 2007, 2008, and 2009. The speed that helped him steal 30 or more bags five times from 2001 through 2006 dried up overnight, limiting him to single digit stolen base totals (outside of his aberrant 18 steal campaign in 2013) after 2008. His outfield defense, solid at first, grew to be truly abhorrent as his range diminished.

The Cubs' fortunes followed Soriano's, as they fell from playoff contender to one of the worst teams in baseball. It was fitting that they were stuck with a .250 hitter who rarely walked, struck out a ton, and couldn't run or field--a daily reminder of their massive misfire. Soriano would accrue 7.9 bWAR across his eight-year contract, worth not even one win per year despite being one of his league's 10 most expensive players from 2009 through 2013. His contract and underwhelming performance was a significant reason, but hardly the only one (see Edwin Jackson signing), for Chicago's rapid descent into irrelevance.

Soriano's age, declining skills and hefty salaries made his contract appear unmovable. Enter the Yankees, who are always willing to play past-their-prime players big bucks to fill out their roster. In desperate need of a power bat to complement Robinson Cano, the great heir to Soriano's second base job, New York sought out Soriano. That's he ended up back in pinstripes for the final act of his career, which included its last hot streak (second half of 2013) and last gasp (2014).

With 27.2 career bWAR, Soriano's not a Hall of Famer, but he's certainly a Hall of Gooder. His 412 home runs are 50th-most all-time, fueled by seven 30-homer seasons. The seven-time All-Star stole nearly 300 bases (289), notched over 2,000 hits (2,095), and eclipsed both 1,000 runs (1,152) and 1,000 RBI (1,159). His combination of power, speed, and low on-base percentages make him something of a modern Andre Dawson.

During the meat of his career from 2001 and 2013, he ranked second in doubles (to Albert Pujols), fifth in long balls, eighth in hits, 10th in runs and stolen bases, and 12th in RBI. It's easy to forget now just how exceptional he was during his prime 10 years ago, and how even in his later years he remained surprisingly durable and a steady source of power. He only had a handful of truly great seasons, but had more than a few good to okay ones. He didn't live up to his contract, but few players would have. It's not like it was a total disaster, either, as he did hit 204 home runs with 599 RBI, 1,004 hits, and an .802 OPS over the life of it.

Don't remember Soriano only for his failures with the Cubs and the massive paychecks he collected from them. Remember him as a good (but flawed), sometimes great ballplayer who combined power and speed like few others, hit wherever he went, then quickly faded away.

Choo's Injury Caps Disappointing Season

Shin-Soo Choo's season is over. The Texas Rangers outfielder has a bone spur in his left elbow and will need to go under the knife in the next two weeks to remove it.

Under normal circumstances this would be a devastating blow for the Rangers, losing a player of Choo's ability a week before September, but their season has been anything but ordinary. A slew of injuries has turned a talented team that many thought would contend for first place in the AL West to the worst team in baseball.

Choo was one of the few Rangers to avoid serious injury, having played 123 of the club's 129 games to date. Unfortunately for the 32 year-old his good health did not translate into good production, as he scuffled through the worst season of his career since he began playing regularly in 2008.

Signed by the Rangers to a seven-year, $130 million prior to the season, Choo came to Texas with the reputation of a durable, 20/20 outfielder who got on base a ton. Installed as the team's leadoff hitter, he was expected to bolster the lineup as an elite table-setter for Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder and Alex Rios. Instead, he showed none of the tools that made him an All-Star caliber player and turned out to be an enormous bust in the first year of his new deal--bad news for a player on the wrong side of 30.

Even before his injury, pretty much everything that could go wrong for Choo did go wrong. His .242 batting average and .340 OBP were his lowest marks since 2005, his rookie season, and his .374 SLG., .714 OPS and 100 OPS+ were his worst since 2007.  Compared to last year his walk rate plummeted, his strikeout rate soared, and his BABiP tumbled 30 points even though his batted ball distribution was virtually identical to what it was in his monster 2013 campaign.

Choo, always a poor hitter against southpaws, struggled mightily against righthanders as well, batting just .244/.348/.384 against them (down from .317/.457/.554 against righties a year ago). Versus righties he had trouble hitting pitches down the middle--something that should never be an issue for a hitter of Choo's caliber--and did noticeably worse on inside pitches as well. This development would seem to suggest diminished bat speed as a cause for his struggles and, based on his difficulties with fastballs this year, that's probably the case.

Decline is to be expected given Choo's age, but it was very surprising to see him become a nonfactor on the bases virtually overnight. Formerly a lock to steal 20 bags per year, he nabbed just three in seven attempts after swiping 96 over his previous five seasons. Throw in his shoddy defense in left field and frequent turns at DH, and he was a replacement level player at best.

Mercifully for Choo, his disastrous season is over. He can look forward to getting his swing right and returning to health in 2015, when hopefully for Texas he'll be able to start living up to his massive contract. Because if this is what Choo is going forward--a league average bat with middling power and limited speed who profiles as a corner outfielder/DH type--they're going to be stuck with his albatross of a contract for the rest of the decade.

Of course, Choo is still young enough that a bounce back isn't out of the question, especially if this injury was nagging him for awhile and caused his production to suffer. His proven track record is too distinguished and Texas is too good a hitter's park to write him off after one bad year. But the Rangers have to be prepared for the probability that they're not going to get back the impact player they thought they were getting last winter, and that what they saw from him this year might be as good as it gets.

Fielder Finished

Fielder is done, and in all likelihood so are the Rangers (NBCDFW)

Prince Fielder will go under the knife on Tuesday to repair a herniated disk in his back, an operation that requires 3-4 months of recovery time and thus ends his first season with the Texas Rangers. For the first time since 2005--his rookie season--the previously durable Fielder will finish a year with fewer than 157 games played.

The Rangers, you might recall, swapped Ian Kinsler for Fielder last fall in an effort to beef up their lineup. Fielder's elite power, on-base and run producing skills were supposed to give Texas a major threat along with Shin-Soo Choo Adrian Beltre in the heart of their order.

Instead, Fielder was a failure, batting just .247/.360/.360--numbers that were actually on the rise after his abysmal April. Cecil Fielder's son, who just celebrated his 30th birthday two weeks ago, showed no signs of resurrecting his vanishing power, managing only three home runs and 16 RBI in 42 games. Moving to Texas, and one of the best hitter's parks in baseball, was supposed to reverse his declining numbers.

Didn't happen. While all three of his home runs came at home, he batted a paltry .187/.333/.347 in 22 games there (as opposed to .307/.388/.373 on the road). Arlington is a hitter's paradise, but Fielder was unable to take advantage of it in his brief 2014 campaign (I have to imagine he'll hit better there next year). Meanwhile, Kinsler has unexpectedly flourished away from Arlington, putting up some of the best numbers of his career and helping the Tigers maintain their grip on the AL Central.

Fielder's injury has to be incredibly frustrating for the Rangers. Not just because they paid him $24 million for replacement level production (-0.3 bWAR), but also because they've been crippled by injuries. Geovany Soto, Jurickson Profar, Matt Harrison, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Martin Perez, Joe Saunders, Tanner Scheppers, and now Fielder, among others, are all on the Disabled List or done for the season (and don't forget that Beltre and Yu Darvish already missed time earlier this year). Decimated doesn't even begin to describe the Rangers' injury woes this season, and it's a miracle that Texas is only one game below .500 entering play today. Fielder's injury doesn't just leave a gaping hole in the middle of Ron Washington's order; it effectively dashes whatever hopes the fourth-place Rangers had of clawing back in the playoff race.

They were counting on Fielder to get hot and pick up the offense, which ranks second-to-last in the American League in home runs. They were waiting for his power stroke return as the weather heated up. They were hoping he would start resembling Prince Fielder, you know, the beastly slugger who made five All-Star teams and smacked 283 homers over the past eight seasons.

Unfortunately for the Rangers, they'll have to keep waiting.

Boston Takes Texas Series

Lackey was in control and guided Boston to another victory

Slowly but surely, the Red Sox are gaining steam.

With their 5-2 win over the Texas Rangers today, the Sox won their third straight series and lifted their record over .500 for the first time since April 3rd, when they were 2-1 after winning their season-opening series in Baltimore. At 19-18, Boston has now won six of its last eight and 14 of the last 23, coming alive after a slow start that caused the defending World Series champs to slip to last place in the AL East.

It looked like the visiting Red Sox were in for a long weekend after nearly getting no-hit by Yu Darvish in the series-opener, but they rallied to win 8-3 last night and take the rubber game today. Boston's bats staked John Lackey to an early 4-0 lead by scoring in the first two innings for the first time this season. The Sox scored three times to open the game in the top of the first. Mike Napoli doubled in Dustin Pedroia, and after a Jonny Gomes pop-out A.J. Pierzynski laced a single that plated Napoli and David Ortiz. Boston got another in the second from Shane Victorino's RBI groundout.

Rangers starter Robbie Ross, Jr. settled down after that, pitching into the seventh inning before Pedroia ended his day with a solo shot that barely made it over the left field wall. But Ross was not sharp enough to beat Lackey, who delivered another fine outing that lowered his ERA to 3.57 and improved his record to 5-2. The native Texan hurled seven innings of two-run ball, scattering seven hits and striking out nine while walking none. Shin-Soo Choo took him deep to lead off the bottom of the fourth and added another run in the seventh when Mitch Moreland doubled home Alex Rios.

Lackey nearly lost control of the game when, following Moreland's one-out double, J.P. Arencibia reached on an infield single that ate up Xander Bogaerts. Lackey screamed and stomped his feet the way he always does when a fielder fails to make a play behind him, leading John Farrell to send out Juan Nieves to calm him down. The move seemed to work, for Lackey fanned Leonys Martin and Rougned Odor--both of whom represented the potential tying run--to end the frame and finish his start on a high note.

The Red Sox bullpen took it from there. Andrew Miller worked around hitting Elvis Andrus with a pitch to deliver a scoreless eighth, and Koji Uehara closed the door with a 1-2-3 ninth, converting his 32nd consecutive save opportunity since last July 6th.

The surging Sox get an off-day tomorrow to travel to Minnesota, where they'll wrap up their six-game road trip. Look for them to continue their winning ways against the last-place Twins, who have the American League's second-worst pitching staff (ERA-wise) and a soft lineup.

Guerrero Calls it a Career

Vlad was a flashy player and lethal hitter throughout his 16 year career

More than two years after his last game, Vladimir Guerrero officially retired yesterday at the age of 39.

Guerrero, who last played for the Baltimore Orioles in 2011 (not counting his 2012 minor league tryout with Toronto), signed a one-day contract so he could retire as a member of the Angels. Fittingly, he threw out their ceremonial first pitch yesterday to new Angels hitting coach Don Baylor, who broke his right leg while receiving the toss and had to be carried off the field (that can't be a good sign if you're an Angels fan).

That moment, bizarre and unfortunate as it was, doesn't look so out of place with the rest of Guerrero's career, which was generally beyond explanation and on many occasions seemed to defy belief.

A notorious bad-ball hitter, Guerrero never saw a pitch he didn't like. For mere mortals, that kind of swing-at-everything approach would lead to a lot of weak contact and ugly strikeouts. Not Guerrero who had an uncanny ability to make consistent, quality contact and hit the ball with authority. His off-the-charts hand-eye coordination allowed him to reach pitches most men could never dream of hitting, and his natural strength allowed him drive those pitches into the gaps and over the fence. His swing was vicious, but it was also a thing of beauty. It was controlled aggression.

Guerrero was like Roberto Clemente with power. He batted .318/.379/.553 in his 16 year career, blending power (449 home runs) with speed (181 stolen bases). He hit above .300 every year from 1997 through 2008 and never hit below .290, save for his nine game cameo at the end of the 1996 season. It shocks me that Guerrero never won a batting title despite batting over .320 seven times and hitting as high as .345 one year).

He always seemed to get the bat on the ball. Guerrero never struck out 100 times in any season and topped 90 only once--in 1998, his first full season. After 2001, he never even struck out 80 times in a single season. Vlad came to the plate more than 9,000 times and fanned fewer than 1,000, an exceptional ratio for a slugger.

Vlad the Impaler won eight Silver Slugger awards and was one of the most feared hitters of his era, a modern day Jim Rice. He led the league in intentional walks five times and his career total of 250 ranks fifth all-time, behind only Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Albert Pujols, Willie McCovey. Pitchers couldn't pitch around him because he could expand the strike zone and still do damage. They didn't know what to do with him.

As a baserunner and outfielder Guerrero can best be described as erratic. He had good speed in his early years, twice going 30/30 and falling one home run shy of a 40/40 season in 2002, but he was successful in less than 66 percent of his stolen base attempts. He was caught 20 times in 2002--most in the majors--and didn't steal much after that as age and wisdom forced him to be less aggressive on the basepaths.

He was a poor, error prone outfielder despite his Clemente-esque cannon for an arm. Though he led the league in right field assists three times and racked up 126 in his career, he gave up just as many outs with his mistakes. He led the league in errors by a right fielder nine times and his career total of 125 is fifth-most. He made daring throws and often overthrew his intended targets.

In spite of his flaws, Guerrero is still Hall of Fame worthy. He maintained a .980 OPS (151 OPS+) and averaged 35 home runs and 114 RBI per season from 1998 through 2007 when he was one of the ten best position players in baseball. He drew MVP votes in 12 different seasons, winning the award in 2004 and finishing third twice. His 2,590 hits are the most of any Dominican player, and he was one of the game's most popular players throughout his career. To my knowledge he has never been linked to PEDs.

JAWs estimates Guerrero's career value was about the same as Ichiro Suzuki's (a slam dunk, probable first ballot Hall of Famer) and just a hair below Dave Winfield's (a first ballot inductee). His most similar batter is Jeff Bagwell, who should have been elected already but is being kept out because of unfounded steroid suspicions. Like Bagwell, Guerrero won't get in on the first try, but both deserve to get in and will be inducted eventually.